The focus of this board will be on my SPX cycles system using Daily, Weekly & Monthly charts. This cycle system is not intended to identify the tops and bottoms. The intent is to identify the middle area.
SPX cycles will be broken down into two phases. Phase I(Bear) is the down trend phase and Phase II(Bull) is the up trend phase.
A Phase I(Bear) starts when the SPX price opens and remains below the upper trend line(UTL). For a Daily Phase I(Bear) to be confirmed, the SPX price opens and remains below the UTL price the entire trading day. The confirmation for a Weekly & Monthly Phase I(Bear) is the same process as the Daily, except the Weekly price must remain below the UTL the entire Week and the Monthly must remain below the UTL the entire Month.
A Phase II(Bull) is confirmed immediately when the SPX price hits the UTL.
A new chart will be posted each time a new Phase is confirmed.
I will provide current averages for each Phase and each time frame. Averages are the primary data I use in buying and selling. When in a Bull Market Phase I's are normally shorter than Phase II's and in a Bear Market Phase II's sometimes are shorter than Phase I's. So in a Bull Market Phase I, I would buy long below the average and sell in Phase II above the average. In a Bear Market, I would buy long in Phase I above the average and in Phase II would sell below the average.
I will provide projections based on historical data that I continually collect and analyze.
The objective of SPX Cycles, is to identify short term (Daily), medium term (Weekly) and long term (Monthly) direction of the market.
Phase I - Starts at the beginning of a down trend and ends at the confirmed up trend. The confirmed up trend is when the price touches or crosses the upper trend line.
Phase II - Starts when a confirmed up trend is identified and ends when a confirmed down trend has started. The confirmed down trend is when the price opens below the upper trend line and remains below the upper trend line the entire trading day for a Daily Phase I. the entire week for a Weekly Phase I and the entire month for a Monthly Phase I.
During a Bull market, Phase II cycles will normally last longer than Phase I cycles.
During a Bear market, Phase I cycles sometimes last longer than Phase II cycles.
Bull market - For this board, a bull market is confirmed when the SPX Monthly EMA 3/8 has made a bullish crossing, and it is confirmed at close of the market on the last trading day of the month.
Bear market - Is the same as the Bull market except the SPX Monthly EMA 3/8 has made a bearish crossing that is confirmed at close of the market on the last trading day of the month.
Other indicators that this board will use: PPO (3,8,4), MACD (12,26,9), RSI(14), CCI(24). These are secondary indicators and are mainly used to try and detect a change of trend in the early stages. The PPO is usually the first warning sign followed by the MACD, RSI and CCI.
The upper and lower trend lines on all charts are the EMA 11 (high) and EMA 11 (low)