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I will review my notes this weekend. Rival hasn't been hedging. Doesn't mean they couldn't hedge now that they have more production but so far no hedges. Bobwins
Bobwins, bought some more Rival today. Have you thought about updating your proformas given the substantial increase in natural gas prices? Not sure what prices you used in your original projections but it would be useful if you indicated them as well as any update to those prices. I suspect the cash flows and earnings will increase substantially and therefore have increased my position. Does Rival hedge? (a negative in ASPN's case)
last year was 11/26/04. They give them more time in Canada. Bobwins
Bobwins, I find Sedar filings hard to navigate--any idea when Q3 is due out? Thanks.
kozuh was right:
Posted by: kozuh
In reply to: Bobwins who wrote msg# 14934
Date:6/28/2005 11:25:41 AM
Post #of 23532
Bobwins, Re: Canadian Junior Energy
Yes, the optimal time to buy Canuck gas explorers is when they are starting to grow but are producing less than 1000 boe/d
So, this is the optimal time to buy Rival (RGY.V) with production at 950 boe/d.
I've mentioned PRP.v to you several times; it is now a 3-bagger for me, but is still a Junior-Junior with production at only 450 boe/d; a year from now PRP.v will be well over 1000 boe/d !!!
You have rejected PRP.v in the past as being too small; wake up and smell the coffee ((<:}
Every Canadian junior is a candidate to become a Trust. 2,000bpd is the typical threshold before it becomes practical. Typically the Trusts like stable long term wells. They will drill developmental wells but usually avoid a lot of exploration.
Since Rival just broke 1000 bpd, it seems like they have some time before it becomes a possibility. If everything falls together and they start 2006 at 1300bpd, then 2000 might be a possibilty for end of 2006.
Bobwins
What do you think the chances are of this company eventually becoming a trust?
Forgot to add this guy's name to the last post.
George Ziroff
VP, Finance
Rival Energy Ltd.
Got a responce to an Email I sent to Rival:
"Management and Directors will hold about 3.3 million shares after the private placement out of about 19,845,000 or 17 percent."
This passage from the last earnings report tells us the important facts:
"Production averaged 789 boe/d during this most recent quarter as no new production was placed on-stream and the sale of our Suffield, Sask. oil property and natural declines limited the positive impact of the Killam discovery well that commenced production in mid February of this year. The two development wells drilled in Killam during the second quarter are now on production and the pool is producing approximately 400 barrels per day of water-free clean oil net to Rival's account. The Company presently plans to drill two additional wells in this pool over the next 30 days.
Success in Robsart has resulted in an increased drilling program being proposed for the area and additional wells have also been approved for the Company's W4M and W5M areas of exploration. Rival expects to drill at least another four wells in these areas over the next sixty days, with additional drilling proposed for the fourth quarter to follow-up on the positive results from these programs.
Rival expects the results from this drilling program to continue the Company's growth momentum and drive production to exceed its exit rate target of 1200 boe/d. At the same time, Rival is making considerable progress in its effort toward establishing an additional core area within central W5M and the Peace River Arch (W6M) areas of Alberta. The Company is very interested in gaining a foothold in these areas in order to complement its shallower oil and natural gas opportunities with a few higher impact oil and natural gas plays. Rival will be increasing its technical manpower over the next thirty days and believes that with this additional strength and the Company's cash flow, we can now support participation in these areas.
This last sentence predicted the hiring of the two drilling/exploration managers today. Additionally the private placement ensures that they are committed to the company's success. The company ends up with $750K to use for an aggressive drilling program and two new experienced technical staff. Feels like Rival is getting ready to make a run towards 2,000bpd in 2005. For sure, we know that they are drilling 6 new wells during q3 that should add to production in q4. Bobwins
Argghhh, didn't want to chase it, now 1.44 US
Rival Energy Ltd.- Strengthens Management Team
Tuesday September 13, 8:02 am ET
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - Sept. 13, 2005) - Rival Energy Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:RGY - News).
The Board of Directors of Rival Energy Ltd. is pleased to announce the following additions to its management team and the Board.
The Board welcomes Mr. Harley L. Winger, partner with Burstall Winger LLP as a Director to the Board of Rival Energy Ltd. Mr. Winger's primary practice is in securities law and is a director of a number of public companies.
On the exploration front, Rival is very pleased to announce that Mr. John Wilson, an honors graduate and gold medal recipient in Geology from the University of Windsor, has joined the Company as Vice President, Exploration. The Company is also proud to announce that Mr. Kenneth Pretty has joined the company as Manager, Land.
Mr. John Wilson, most recently a senior geologist with Crew Energy Ltd., a successful growth-oriented junior oil and gas company created from a royalty trust reorganization, brings 27 years of diversified western Canada exploration experience to Rival. Throughout his tenure, Mr. Wilson has held a variety of senior geological positions, (including Manager, Exploration with Newport Petroleum Corporation prior to its takeover by Hunt Oil Company of Canada, Inc.) and has spent the past 15 years working exclusively with exploration focused junior oil and gas companies. He brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to Rival and will be responsible for all exploration activity and the initiating of the Company's exploration activities in the W5M and northern areas of Alberta and north-eastern British Columbia.
Mr. Pretty brings an extensive work experience and a very strong background of business development and negotiating skills to Rival. Mr. Pretty has held senior management positions in land and business development with several intermediate oil and gas producers over the last seven years of his 25 year career and this experience will be instrumental in implementing Rival's strategy for more aggressive growth, both on the exploration front and in the acquisition arena. As Rival continues to add strength to its technical and management team over the near future, all of these individuals will combine to broaden Rival's scope and areas of exploration activity.
On August 25, 2005 Rival agreed to issue 665,000 stock options to employees, Officers and Directors of the Company. The options issued to Directors and Officers will have an exercise price of $1.05 with a term of five years. In conjunction with these recent appointments, and to provide an opportunity for the new individuals to gain an ownership position in the Company, the Board of Rival has offered the new employees, Officers and Directors participation in a private placement of its common shares. These individuals have agreed to purchase, in aggregate, a total of $778,560.00 of common shares in Rival Energy Ltd. at a price of $1.20 per share. The Board of Directors of Rival believes their participation in this private placement clearly aligns the interests of all shareholders and management of the Company. These transactions conform to the Company's "Employee Stock Option Plan" and are subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange.
I also paid 1.27. I think I am done filling up the cart with Rival. I wonder who's going to buy our shares??? LOL!
Bobwins
You must have gotten in a little after me at $1.27. Best of luck to all.
Mat
bought in today monday at $1.265 let the sun shine on the oil rigs...or something like that
nice research report Rival energy-fwiw
http://www.qiscapital.com/images/RRRGY.pdf
Hey Don,
I see 19,121,281 shares outstanding on the stockhouse website.
Nothing on the float though.
Does anyone know the float on Rival? As always... thanks in advance.
Judging by the volume today and over the last few weeks, this stock is under heavy accumulation and looks like a safe hold even at $1.50 plus.
rgy.v is the canadian quote in Canadian dollars. rgylf.pk quotes aren't as reliable because they only cover US trades thru pink sheets. Many US brokers like Ameritrade route your trade to a Canadian broker so it really doesn't end up going thru pink sheet system and doesn't register as a pink sheet trade. Therefore pink sheet quotes on these stocks are sporadic and not always updated.
I assume these are invesmtents that I am going to hold for a while. Not good for in and out trades. I use stockhouse.com to get quotes and do DD. On the quote screens at stockhouse, there is a currency converter to US dollars. I use that to make my bids between the bid/ask in US$.
Use Sedar.com to get their public filings, interim stmts,etc.
Good luck, Bobwins
I like this. Looks real interesting. 19.1 m OS
I was planning to put more into PMGYF but I might buy a few shares of this if I can find out some more about the company and its principals.
BW: RGY.V vs. RGYLF.PK
Is RGY.V the Canadian quote? I noticed it's $1.36 vs. $1.15 for RGYLF.
sure pulled in records profits!
nice one.
need to find some monies to buy this one!
Keith
Rival Energy Ltd is a Canadian Junior that I consider very undervalued. With a high percentage of natural gas, Rival appears to be in a good spot to take advantage of the current tight supply/demand situation for ngas. With production scheduled to jump from averaging 789boepd in q2 to 1050 in q3 and probably 1300 in q4, Rival should be earning C$.05 by q4.
If current high prices for ngas hold up thru yearend, eps could be higher.
Rival jumped from C$1.05 to 1.40 after earnings were released for q2 on 8/29.
Bobwins
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RIVAL ENERGY Q2 Q3revised Q4revised Gross Revs 3,443,770 5,883,500 7,705,000 Royalties 633,247 1,176,700 1,580,000 Accretion 48,062 0 0 Gross Margin 2,858,585 4,706,800 6,125,000 Operating Costs 713,659 1,176,700 977,500 Transport,tariff 96,728 125,000 151,800 G&A 230,422 250,000 300,000 Interest 77,121 80,000 80,000 Depletion,Deprec 925,000 1,242,000 1,530,650 Accretion 13,445 0 0 Stock Comp Exp 12,364 12,364 140,000 Total Expenses 2,068,739 2,886,064 3,177,950 Inc BF Tax 789,846 1,820,736 2,945,050 Future Tax 211,000 491,599 1,736,262 Net profit 580,624 1,329,137 2,208,788 EPS C$.03 C$.0695 C$.112 Cashflow C$.09 C$.16 C$.285 Price/boe C$47 C$67.30 C$67 Total Production 0 87,400 115,000 Diluted shares 19,121,000 19,121,000 19,703,880EARNINGS http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/050829/1eca0d1221000caa7bca6ffc66e3c5e2.html?.v=1 http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/051122/200511220298311001.html?.v=1 http://www.stockhouse.ca/pfolio.asp?page=displaynews&symbol=V.RGY&newsid=3801021&fromale... RESEARCH http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data60/filings/00827520/00000001/i%3A%5CHLW%5CSedar%5C27897%5CMDAQ2200.... Home Page http://www.rivalenergy.com/ Share Structure Company announced a secondary to insiders in the following PR: http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/050913/c0e70a38d4d3013dac3a22663d0807ad.html?.v=1 After the secondary, there will be 19,845,000shares with 3.3 million or 17% owned by insiders. QUOTES http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=RGY&table=LIST&conversion=1&advanced=1&am.... Analyst Report http://www.qiscapital.com/images/RRRGY0605.pdf
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