Ring of Fire

[omandan]

Free
I don't really want to get on the banned list. May need to send him a post to help him out sometime. In fact I did ask him a question the other day (not about the market) that I knew he could give me some good feed back on.
Wonder what the deal is now. He's got 4 trading charts up, each has lines drawen differently. I guess which ever way the market works out he can say thats the way he played it, I don't understand.
Dan

[denmo83]

Woe-woe-woe...

Just hold on here.

I like omandan and all, but if too many get on my list, it waters down the honor.

I really haven't gotten used to the 2 latest additions and now you're out soliciting. LOL.

[FreeMarkets]

No doubt about it Dan. The banned list on that board should be the hall of fame. See if you can get on it just for fun. LOL. I think it's denmo, randy and me so far.

[CaribbeanJim]

OT: What a babe. I better get her off my screen before my wife sees it. I'm already in enough trouble for spending too much time on the computer! LOL

By the way, where is old friend Keith at?

[omandan]

Free
LOL, thats really bad that you could be such a bad trader that you'ed let something drop that far without taking a small loss on it & get out with some money left. Last I saw they were 5 cents.
Dan

[omandan]

Denmo
Thats how I think when it comes to pictures like that.
Dan

[mr_cassandra]

YOW

[FreeMarkets]

The last trade on those December puts was 1 cent. Pokersam has them as being purchased for 65 cents, which means he probably paid 80. LOL. What a moron.

[FreeMarkets]

That's a nice market to be in.

[denmo83]

LOL...

I do believe I'll always think like an 18 year old.

[omandan]

Denmo
I just went LONG on that.
Dan

[denmo83]

One for the board info...

[John French]

Yes, I still can't believe how badly Lotus Corp blew it but there again what about Ashton (who?) Tate (DbBase II/III/III+/IV/V etc.) as well but then Ed Absner (ex CEO of Visicalc) was not exactly a great person to bring on board...

[mr_cassandra]

Too Late ! You said.....lotus !

(but I was there too)

[John French]

and having touted myself as a technical whiz I now have to admit my finger slipped and I posted before I was finished. What I was saying was I subscribed to Trade Tools ages ago so I have a fair amount of historical data.

My Email is [e-mail] and like I said my interest is 100% in finding a better mousetrap. Personally, I like to trade frequently i.e. not to have a fixed position in the market for weeks and weeks. I most certainly do not believe that "buy and hold" works.

See what you think.

[John French]

CJ, if you want your model put in Excel I can do it. I am another one always on the hunt for a better mousetrap. Unfortunately, my SQL/VB/Excel programing skills are rather better than my TA (but I am learning fast i.e. I have code for ADX, SAR, RSI, CCI, Bollinger Bands, MACD etc. etc.). I have been writing Excel functions/macros since it was introduced and before that in Lotus 1a. Before that I am not prepared to discuss as it would be showing my age!

If you are interested send me an Email. I am a subscriber to

[positiontrader]

Yes It was corrected.Thanks

[FreeMarkets]

PT - Did C2 make the correction yet? You guys seem better than C2, but I'm sure you know that by now.

[CaribbeanJim]

I just got an email from rcptrader. He is expecting consolidation until middle of the week and then we begin another leg of the rally.

As far as dk goes, rcp thinks highly of him and that is how I got started following him. From what I have seen, his analysis is fairly good. He went bearish last Thursday but his latest analysis says this may be short-lived so he could be back on the bull side fairly quickly. I'm not sure if his bear call was accurate or not, but we should know soon enough.

[FreeMarkets]

dkneupper - How has his track record been?

[CaribbeanJim]

jstri - As we now know, the much favored low of the presidential cycle occurred in July. Most people expected it to occur in October, but historically speaking it typically occurs on average in early August in the 2nd year of the presidential cycle.

The third year of the presidential cycle is the strongest of the four years and I think much of the run up that we have had these past 4 months is anticipation of that as such.

[jstri]

It will be interesting to see if we can get a tradeable low sometime in 2007 via your system. Since it will be the ( much favored )3rd year of the Pres. cycle with no calender year losses on the SP 500 since 1963, it will be a "low risk" low with good upside bias potential...

[CaribbeanJim]

Keller - From Feb-Sept this year I was working on 1-3 part strategies based on risk/reward probability. I was still finalizing the strategy when I was at 60% in August so I never made it any higher. Today's system would have had me in at 100% in August.

Also, this year I have been working on "easy money" style of diversification. I have come to realize that there are on average about 5 low-risk buy signals per year within non-coorelated Profunds opportunities (e.g. Reits, XAU, Utilities, Nikkei, Oil Svcs, Energy) where the performance should outperform the 2X US indexes with less risk. That is a lot of low-hanging fruit! When I get a major bottom on one of these opportunities, I add 5% of my portfolio into it as a LT play. The majority of my portfolio would still use my IT timing method, but these non-coorelated opportunities would be treated as LT plays.

[mr_cassandra]

Morning Randy, in the end, when you turn off the computer and the internet, the disc drives and fans spin down to silence and you turn to look at your home and family, all that really matters is your own real world brokerage account, your family and friends.

Who said what about who on the internet doesn't affect your real world life at all.

If your own investing ideas are doing better than the top, broad-based mutual funds and your account steadily grows, You have already won.

[CaribbeanJim]

FM - I don't have those stats in front of me since I don't have it in Excel. My problem is that my data is coming from many sources, I am a constant tweaker, and I don't have a bazillion hours to get it into Excel. Maybe someday I will get lucky like capt_jmj and find the right person(s) to work with on this, one with the historical data needed for my system and Excel expertise.

Basically, a go to cash signal at this stage means that the momentum has dried up enough that further gains are potentially possible but only after further consolidation or a swift pullback/correction. In other words, the reward does not outweight the risk after the momentum dries up.

I see that dkneupper began short Thursday. This is what I like about TA. Everyone sees things slightly differently and everyone is at a different stage in their TA expertise.

[FreeMarkets]

CJ,

In back-testing, how have your cash signals done compared to just staying in? Well, I am sure but do you have stats?

If you go to cash, I may lighten up some.

FM

[FreeMarkets]

Randy -

I was also banned there for simply having a different view than the Joke(r). Funny how he loses 33 grand each month but still manages to stay around even overall. LOL.

I have posted my concerns about the Merlin system but none of those guys banned me. Had PS been part of TMS I would be banned there as well. I think they should check his age. He seems about 2. LOL

FM

[Keller]

Wonderful ride there Jim...Great job. Just curious, does your system tell you what percentage to go long? I noticed you are 60% long. Where did thid number come from?

thanks,

keller

[TechniTrend]

Husk - have you been following CSGCOS , if so, what´s the result ? btw what was the last version ?

thanks

[CaribbeanJim]

System still long (barely).

I could get a "cash" signal next week.

[CaribbeanJim]

randygee - No mind games over here. The jOker would do much better if he would avoid using the "smart money" traders as his contrarian indicators. He gets more ornery the longer he is wrong and he has been wrong for a very, very long time.

It won't be long before he bans everyone posting on his board. LOL

[CaribbeanJim]

jstri - I have many different forms of sentiment indicators, but AAII Bull/Bear index seems to encompass the general sentiment fairly well. It tells me we have not put in a major top yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if my system told me to go to cash at close today. If so, this most likely means we will enter a short to extended period of consolidation.

[jstri]

What do you use for reading sentiment ?

[randygee]

pokersam...


since you banned me from your board for not sharing the same view, tell us again how many times you've typed the word "top" over the past 4 months? Even a broken clock is right twice a day, I'm sure you'll evenually have your day in the sun...by that time you should be as broke as the clock.

btw...still keeping track of my CAT calls you mocked me for? They're up 30%.

cheers.

[mr_cassandra]

Not that I can see. I'd agree that historically on mvp, this has been a long cash period.

[CaribbeanJim]

I have about a 50% chance of getting a "go to cash" signal tomorrow. I will have to wait until around 3:30pm tomorrow to see what my system finally decides.

If I do get a cash signal, typically what follows days/weeks later is a sell signal but I would not rule out a re-buy given that the sentiment is still in the dumper. We still haven't even hit the 50dema where the market will most likely pick up some new buyers.

[jstri]

Any signal on the horizon ? Seems like longish periods between/over the last 2 signals, historically speaking...

[husk]

CSGCOS is now giving a short signal with the NDX price drop below the 10ema, and the NASI 10/17 having crossed over. The Capt wisely pointed out on one occasion or more, that it is risky to short an uptrend. OTOH, this trend is pretty extended by several measures...NAA50, BPNDX, etc...so maybe it will soon not be an uptrend.

Those who were expecting the usual summer dip were surprised this year, perhaps the usual year end rally will not happen either.

[husk]

Where is Keith?? Do we need to put out an APB on his location..or is it an undisclosed location?

Anyone following CSGCOS? By my adaptation of it, if the NDX falls to 1786 or so, conditions for a short would be in place. The NASI 10/17 ema crossed over downwards today, and if price falls below the 10ema..it would be the signal.

[CaribbeanJim]

jstri - Thank you very much for those Hussman links. Very informative.

[jstri]

Gold rally ahead ?

Hussman runs a matrix of gold indicators that just turned favorable. The last time they were favorable ( 5/05 ), gold went from 426 to 580 in a year's time: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc061204.htm
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/gold.htm
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050502.htm

[positiontrader]

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10893463

[Hittfeld]

Where could I find the Advanced Rules?

Thanks
Hittfeld

[mr_cassandra]

Thanks but one self-criticism. That is the 'current' version. I will feel a lot better when 'one' version has a few years under its belt without needing any serious changes.

[CaribbeanJim]

Data from the 1970s would be most relevant to today's economic climate. Decisionpoint has it for the NYA and SPX.

[CaribbeanJim]

mvp - Those are extremely good returns. You should not have anything to worry about. I guess the take away from this study is IT signals should probably make good money no matter if small and mids are in favor or not. If one wants at least mildly lower risk when a certain cap fund is in favor (small&mid vs. large) one could make that the focus, but it should not be that big of deal.

Thanks for helping me arrive at this conclusion. This study definitely helped change my opinion.

[mr_cassandra]

The further back you can go the better. Imo coming into late 99 you had not only a bull mkt but a true bubble in dot coms. despite fans protestations, it was a mania like its many predecessorss dating back to the dutch tulip mania.

Then in 2000, when greenspan had to withdraw the money flood he'd caused to fend off the non-existant Y2K problems, it caused a historic level nasdaq bear mkt, which many newer players had felt was never to happen again.

I'd say at the least you need from 98 thru the present in order to test all the varied conditions which the armchair system critics confidently harrumph would derail a system.

[TechniTrend]

MVP, CJ:- for my own work I´ve been using data from 99 to present, it seems to me they are representative of different market conditions, but maybe missing something.. do you think should I extend it to some particular key years ??

Thanks

[mr_cassandra]

mvp's 1st trade was in 1996.

totals 2X for years
1996 - 59%
1997 - 64%
1998 - 142%
1999 - 90%

I did some studies this week that show it tracks volatility very closely. IE high vix years = high mvp years and vice-versa

[CaribbeanJim]

My data goes back to 1965.

Smalls and Mids underperformed Large caps (SPX) during these years:

Q4 1994 - Q1 1999 -- Occurred during a Bull Market
1986-1991* -- Occurred during a Bull Market
1969-1975* -- Occurred during a BEAR Market

*I had to use NYA to represent the smalls and mids prior to 1994. It should be a close enough comparison.

In Jan 1973 to Oct 1974, NYA lost 64% whereas SPX lost 53% of its value. From the bottom in July 1970 to Jan 1973, the SPX was up 60% and NYA was up 56%.

The data from the 1970s shows only a mild difference in returns so it does not appear to be a big deal on the surface. The concern I have are the macro trends. When the US markets begin to tank, the larger caps are going to perform best because they have worldwide diversification in stronger markets and have been out of favor for the past 6 years during which the mids and smalls outperformed. We should see at least a mild difference in returns, but be prepared for a major difference based on this macro trend shift.