Ring of Fire

[mr_cassandra]

I have an idea. If you can point me to a time in the past decade when you feel this happened before, I'll go take a look.

[CaribbeanJim]

Steve - It will be interesting to see how mvp does when the midcaps fall further out of favor. Large caps are doing as good as small and mid since the bottom of this 8yr cycle. Future IT bottoms should continue to improve for the large caps, thus beating the small and mids consistently until everyone is back into large again... then the cycle back to small and mids will start all over again.

[mr_cassandra]

I agree. Also mvp holds longer and does not get as many of the moves as merlin does. Ironically, the more I work with my rebuy signals, the better mvp does. Mvp shows its best years when vix was high so it also is affected by volatility.

[capt_jmj]

Steve, in fairness to MVP, I think at least part of the difference in the two systems is the different indices tracked. The SPX is a broader, less volatile index that the NDX, and as such would be considered a lower risk investment vehicle. As I have communicated to you privately, Merlin does exceedingly well in periods of high volatility, albeit at the expense of more frequent trades. We call it the Walmart concept as applied to trading.

[mr_cassandra]

What I found interesting was when I took their trade list versus my last original buy signal. Bearing in mind its off my latest version, corrected after last summers mis-steps, and including piggyback buys within the overall signal. This best of my latest work signal wasn't even close to what merlin did during the exact same time period. Plus Ilike merlins short time exposure for each trade.

[mr_cassandra]

And thats at 1X level.

[CaribbeanJim]

Current $INDU:$GOLD Bear Market

The important point is that in a bear-market rally, the advance will be completely retraced.

Look for Gold to far outperform $INDU over the upcoming months. What has transpired since the July lows is actually a bear market rally using relative price. If you can't buy actual gold and silver with your 401K, you can buy it like a stock (sym: GLD, SLV) using your Roth IRA. That is all I use my Roth IRA for... to buy gold and silver.


Tanashian's chart

[positiontrader]

It is actually better that.C2 made an error on calculating that needs corrected .Instead of a .9% loss today they have it as an >3% loss which is incorrect.

[FreeMarkets]

So few anywhere. It looks like tmg is 71% annualized so far, but it is only 5 weeks old. Hopefully it will keep it up.

[husk]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P&listNum=1

The NDX is at a double bottom P&F....a break of that and there could be a bit of downside ahead. Also the NASI 10/17ema may cross over at the end of day..another shorting signal. All fwiw.

[mr_cassandra]

I couldn't agree more. They have done good work, stuck with it and gotten to a hard to reach goal.

[husk]

re: just using the winning systems. I agree...it is obviously work, and a pain to run a successful timing site.

The system the 3 amigos have is uncanny, thus far...I hope that if they choose, they can buy a house on the water in Barbados or Antigua, or wherever, and run the system from there, and enjoy life.

[positiontrader]

<Also, I do subscribe to the theory that some who pull it off drop out of sight and just use them. >

Steve,

I agree.That is what I would have done if I had more trading capital and less debt.

Best Regards,

Marc

[mr_cassandra]

You mean so few anywhere on the net or do you mean collective? If you mean in general, I never thought about it. Its very hard work, requiring years of dogged persistence. Also, I do subscribe to the theory that some who pull it off drop out of sight and just use them.

[FreeMarkets]

Does it strike you as odd that there are so few good timers with a verified track history of at least 3 years? It is 2006, almost 2007.

[mr_cassandra]

I think the answer is none, I beleive the site is fairly new, maybe 1-2 years old

[FreeMarkets]

How many good systems are there on collective that have been around for 3 years?

[mr_cassandra]

Its like you said though, there are many one year wonders. My own work has had many fits and starts. I like timer trac and collective though because it eliminates the fudge factor of many system advertisers.

[FreeMarkets]

Cool denmo. I go in for prolotherapy #2 tomorrow. The first one two weeks ago was painful for the first day only. My shoulder feels a lot better, but not perfect yet. 5 more therapies and I think I will be good as new. Living with pain really sucks. Glad your surgery went so well.

[FreeMarkets]

It is amazing that there are so many new timing systems. TC didn't have much competition in the 3 year category in timertrak.

[gloe]

thanks husk. I have not heard anything more about woodie.

[husk]

kovu, gloe...First, good to see you posting some around here, kovu..I was wondering the other day if you were well.

Second. I know you guys have a good system with the slingshots, lizards, and other things..I have looked at it a bit, but it doesn't fit me real well. Nevertheless, thanks for urging me to look at it....and best wishes for huge success in using that.

BTW....how is Woody's health? I remember that he was pretty sick a month ago or so..

[gloe]

You got it kovu. Alerts yesterday; triggers today on the open above yesterday's high.

[omandan]

Denmo
Your 100% right on the THERAPY, if you don't do it you'll pay for it the rest of your life. I had about the same thing you had. Did the therapy like I was supposed to & have full range of movement. I know people who just had a roator cuff operation, didn't do the therapy like they should have & can't lift their arm above their head let alone sright up.
Dan

[KovuLK]

FreeMarkets re: RCP


Thanks for the info. I did some reading over there on his link since you mentioned it. RCP will help me remember the BB action.

Thanks
kovu

[KovuLK]

husk, etal re: sling shot


Pick your favorite index and see if there is a sling shot. Many that I watch showed the "alert" yesterday. Today should be interesting to see if it pans out for a "signal".

Thats if I understand that thing right LOL.

Thanks
kovu

[denmo83]

Freemarkets...

I had my shoulder surgery a few years ago.

Both my rotator cuff and labrum were torn.

The doctor said he thought the surgery would take an hour and a half, but he would know more once he got in there. It ended up being 4 hours.

The doctor's assistant told me afterwards any other doctor would have just opened me up when the amount of damage was revealed, but my doctor did it all arthroscopically so recovery time was lessened.

The physical therapy was quite extensive, but worth it. I'm good as new now with no side effects.

[mr_cassandra]

Timing cube does seem to lead the pack in public longevity, thanks.

[Keller]

nevermind..i found his hiding spot

[Keller]

can we get a link?

thanks

keller

[FreeMarkets]

TimingCube, but it has problems too. Like you said, nothing is perfect but we strive for it like alchemists. Maybe Merlin will be the great system, but it needs a track record first. I have seen a lot of one-year wonders.

[mr_cassandra]

Of all the systems you've checked on, does any one stand out for having done the best for the longest, in a consistent manner ?

[FreeMarkets]

RCP called the pullback over on the investorvillage qqqq board. He is posting over there regularly for anyone interested. The quality of posts over there is high.

[CaribbeanJim]

Investing vs. Poker:

(This post in not about the jOker.)

Poker is a zero-sum game — what the winners win, in the aggregate, has to be equal to what the losers lose. But stock investing is not a zero-sum game. Over time, stocks tend to have positive returns so investors overall will be winners. But the stock game offers something that poker just can't match: Over time, the game itself has a built-in positive expected return for all the players. Of course the biggest similarity between poker and investing in stocks is that both involve an intriguing combination of luck and skill. But there's no doubt in my mind that, over time, skill will prevail in both games. The best poker players can beat poor players even with weak cards. And the best investors can make money even in weak markets. The best have to learn to take their lumps with dignity, because lumps there will surely be. But in the long run, the best poker players and the best investors will come out on top. Another important similarity between poker and investing is that both games pit professionals against amateurs. In poker, this is how the professionals make the majority of their money — by playing opponents they know to be weaker. What's so remarkable about this fact is that weaker players continue to play the pros — and happily, too. when you make a trade in the stock market, you are most assuredly playing at the same table as the best in the business. Next time you trade a stock, ask yourself who might be on the other side of the transaction. Sure, it could be another individual investor just like you — or it could be Warren Buffett, George Soros, or any of thousands of other professionals who are even more skilled (but whose names you never see in the headlines). There's one thing in both games that amateurs and professionals have in common: Both are working from incomplete information. So in the absence of complete information, one of the things that good players do to win is to play the probabilities.

(The above came from an unknown source.)

[FreeMarkets]

Poker's puts almost worthless again. Oops.

[husk]

This uptrend is finally gasping for air like a fish out of water....all good things come to an end.

Any reversal may well be tradeable, but probably pretty shallow..still, 3-5% correction would be nice to catch.

All imo, of course.

[jstri]

Yes. There needs to be a catalyst for corrective action in US equities..

[denmo83]

How soon before Kramer gets yanked from the board info?

[CaribbeanJim]

The USD got absolutely crushed today. A couple more days like today and it could cause a snowball effect with many countries diversifying out of the dollar.

[FreeMarkets]

QQQXP BID 5 CENTS! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The JOKEr should just send me his paycheck instead of trading and we could avoid commissions.

Rally powered by shorts.

[CaribbeanJim]

Nikkei and Germany Up Well Today

It should carry over to the US. More "squeeze the jOker" on tap.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone...

[Keller]

Thanks Jim for that read. Very interesting stuff in there.

thanks

keller

[CaribbeanJim]

OT: FM - I thought the same thing about Chan too. The Joker swears by him so we must be wrong. LOL

[FreeMarkets]

Kov,

Thanks for the update. Those foreign etf's are doing well. The max drawdown is lower too.

Brazil up nice and India. Austria up nice but I don't own that one. Some 2x etf's on country funds would be nice.

Chan was hard to follow. He was all over the board for me, predicting a monster rally one day and then selling everything the next. Oh well, I'm sure he will do fine.

FM

[KovuLK]

FreeMarkets re: Chan


I am still with him. His last trades seem to have put him somewhat back on track. GLD closed by him with 5% plus, and I sold too. GLD is still running but he got his money and jumped out on low risk. GDX closed by him with 6% plus, yet I am still in it. OIH closed at 6% plus, but I am still in it, via RYVIX. I got in late. USO stopped out, but I did not go with it. SMH opened at 34.99 but I am not in it since I have QLD and XLK. The reason I am still in some of these trades is that he closed when the hourly indicators were very low. I think in all fairness to him he probably does well since he ignores overbought/sold indicators. In any case he up 40% for the year on his trades dispite this past fall struggle.

For me, I would not trade gold or oil if I had not joined his service. But would I have made those gains anyway in something else that I have now and saved the subscription fee?? Hmmm. A point to ponder.

As for TC I am trying the world index avenue. I have the top five plus FXI since signing up. Watch EWG further down the list.

Thanks
kovu

[FreeMarkets]

That's what I'm hoping for.

[omandan]

Jim
Better study up on Platinum, their talking this morning about starting up a Platinum ETF. I don't know about that, Platinum to my knowledge is pretty thinly traded. Would seem they would run the price up too high just buying enough to start the ETF.
Dan

[omandan]

Jim
Thanks for the chart, Joe does good work.
Wouldn't supprise me to see SPX pull back to 1396 right in here, but I sure wouldn't count on it.
I sold some yesterday that I bought at 10/13 close, planing to hold for 3 weeks, yesterday was more like 5 weeks. Been, is , a really good market.
Dan

[FreeMarkets]

Maybe it won't look so bad if I show a small loss instead of a gain after all of those horrible months. That's the Joke thinking. LOL

He isn't fooling anyone except himself.

[CaribbeanJim]

Joe's New SPX Chart