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It must be that "New Math" they teach the kids in school now days.
Dan
QQQXP Bid 0.10. Oops.
The Joke must have made some money. He is now down 4 grand according to him. He was up 7 grand, so he must have made some money to go down to -4 grand. On the Joke's board, making money = a loss in the total and losing money = a gain in the total. LOL
I lose 33 grand per month or more but I am only down 4 grand total.
not sure don't follow him anymore.
How is Jack Chan doing?
Dent's Latest Analysis
Good reads...
http://www.technicalwatch.com/dent/dow20000.pdf
http://www.technicalwatch.com/dent/forecast11-06-1.pdf
For some reason I like the pmm a bit better, but with either one, I have found it hard to get repeating, reliable levels out of them. More like $nasi, major turns can be helpful to note.
mvp - Have you ever compared Decision Point's PMM to BPI? I've always wondered if one was better than the other, but could never reach a conclusion. It seems like it is very similar information, but presented different ways.
Some it ratio charts you might like. I'm always searching for new ways to extend an original mvp buy signal and currently looking at the following ratio charts.
$bpnya;$cpce , $nahlr:$cpce , $nya200r:$cpce etc.
The period since jan 1 2005 is most reliable when they fixed cpce taking OUT the distorting qqqq options.
The idea with all of these is to look for the root mean average highest reading that time and again, is a major top.
Then you can build yourself a consensus factored indicator comprised of all of them. Let's say for example the first can hit at least 200, the 2nd can hit at least 10 and the thrid can hit at least 50
consensus factorsed formula could be
(highest in last week ratio 1/200 plus highest last week ratio 2/10 plus highest last week ratio 3/50)summed and then divided by 3.
Then look over a few years of this new factor you have created and determine the highest it gets before a turn (least highest)
Hi Keith; Well, the CSGCOS signal set I use with the short when rsi5 > 85 worked again...the RUT (I split the money that the siggy manages between RUT and NDX) has had 2 red candles since that day..and the NDX down today.
Still, I'm glad I went to cash, given the strength of the upward push. I don't know where CSGCOS will be after Monday, but I will probably go long as an override because of the usual pre-holiday up movement. Regards.
Good perspective. Very interesting.
I should check iv out. rcp is over there too at times.
I am using the advanced set, w/ the nasi 10/17 option. Yep, not quite a reversal day yet, but close. If i wasn't tied up in a meeting yesterday i would have sold my NDX 2X fund.
Jim
Great artical, thanks for sharing that with us.
Dan
OT: LOL, no joke CJ. The attitude over there is amazing. It is like this:
"Those poor euphoric bulls. Don't they know they are headed for their doom?"
As if we can never sell our positions when the trend turns down. LOL
QQQXP Bid 0.15 Cost to Joke/r 0.75 Return -80%
SMHWZ Bid N/A Cost to Joke/r .50 Return -100%
That's about a $60,000 loss. Add that to his alleged running total of (cough) 7 grand and you get 10 grand total to the good.
LOL
Yep, you're right. I'm a candle guy from the start, so when I see one like today's, I have to react --- besides I think it is a "lizard."
rockdr, refresh my memory, what rules are you working with? Is what I have on the Advanced chart for you correct?
Thanks
OT: I guess we should be crying at how much we've made as this market is going up. LOL It sounds like they have lost so much they've mentally lost it!
Keith
This is also 4 days up in a row on the SPX. Very seldom do you see more then that. Sort of a next day down signal.
Vix not quite to 10 yet.
Dan
The Joke/r board has some interesting posts. It is as if the market has been going down. They have been laughing at the bulls during this entire rally while we made money. The same thing happened with the Joke/r last year. Boy, do I feel foolish. LOL.
Thanks, and I have to agree with what Hulbert is saying. The VIX/VXN can't be used like other typical oscillating indicators, and I have never been able to use it as a contrarian indicator.
I view it as a way to gauge how "professionally" the market is behaving. Dropping volatility implies the market is acting "intelligently" and vice-versa. So, depending on where price stands, market "intelligence" is a guide to where price will travel next. "Smart" would say to expect a pullback around here. What should then follow is a chopping VXN as price quickly retracts, and then the "smart" money will begin buying back in.
That's my take on it anyway.
Keith - Try this link:
You want the first story in the list.
http://www.marketwatch.com/Search/?property=column&value=mark+hulbert&scid=3&siteid=bigc...
Link didn't work, but I very much wanted to read it.
Any chance you have another link.
Thanks,
Keith
Excellent read on VIX/VXN
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid={0036CCE9-B4C0-44A2-B1E6-46404....
Moral of the story... don't use either VIX/VXN as a topping signal.
Keith, I also went to cash in the accounts where CSGCOS is directing traffic...the siggy call was actually short, but I took the more prudent course as you suggested earlier.
hmmmmmmm...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14790030
H&S patterns don't usually follow a horizontal line...typically at a slant as may be happening now.
NDX: FWIW, I'm going to all cash eod. Today's candle is ending very toppish and my 60min is selling. Tomorrow may well be green, but I don't think by much.
VXN looks as though it has bottomed, which is a decent sign the IT top is in. However, will wait for price to confirm.
BTW, I saw "Borat" last night.....AWFUL! I think I grinned three times. What's with all the hipe? Anybody else see it and thought it was funny?
Cool, I added a link to the ibox.
FM..fwiw, I'll share my CSGCOS chart with you.....it may look a little jumbled at first..but all indicators are there. I love it when the bp's are leading the price upward, or downward (bless Stockcharts, they fit the other indicators to the price, and although it wasn't intended that way..sometimes you can glean additional information). Anyway, it works for me. Sideways moves are always a problem in any trend following system, and it's no different with this one. We can discuss ways to handle that sometime if you're so inclined.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01433658634&a=7...
Will do gloe. I know some people who swear by it. Hopefully I will have similar results. If not, then nothing lost compared to where I was.
Hey Eddie,
I also did some pt, but I probably wasn't as diligent as you were. I also had cortisone shots and they worked only in the short run. My shoulder is a little sore today but hopefully it will pay off.
FM
Keith; I think you're right...in this kind of environment, seasonality and all, the rule probably should be go to cash.
Regards.
Hey Ut,
I haven't checked out that one before today, but it looks like it is $500 per year with only a 1% return last year.
TC isn't perfect by any means. Free systems on ihub may be just as good. TC meets more of my personal criteria than the others though.
Good luck.
...agree with what you say husk. Except I would shy away from shorting anything here. I understand your RSI5>85 rule, but a high RSI only means the system is hot, and price can still blow higher.
Personally, in this environment, I won't hit the short until something confirms there is weakness. Just long and/or cash until then.
1815ish looks like it needs some love.
Keith
Dan,
I think they are nipples. LOL
FM
That sounds good husk. I have run into problems with rsi5<25, but your additional indicator may solve that problem. It looks good.
Hi FM...I think TC was just a couple days later..they had been in a cash position, working on revisions, so I don't know if completing that changed their entry date or not.
Actually, CSGCOS gave an entry signal, I think on the 7th..but I was too chicken to take it and watched for another week before entry.
My adaptation adds the BPNDX/BPCOMP as additional indicator. If you look at a chart of one of the BP's with price as a background, you will see the strong correlation.
Otherwise, it's pretty much the basic version rules, with some "go to cash" safety valves. The priorities are:
1. Long VTO rsi5 < 25...then look to following rules when rsi5 > 50, or sell to cash.
2. Short rsi5 > 85....then look to following rules when rsi5 < 50, or sell to cash.
3. Long NDX > 10ema......then look to other rules for direction, or sell to cash.
4. Long NASI 10ema > 17ema....when NASI(1ma) moves below 10ema, sell to cash.
5. Short NASI 10ema < 17ema.....watch above rules for long position.
Free
You've got that right.
Not only doesn't know how to read his own chart, but as I see it he's got the H & S chart drawen wrong. If he's got the sholders right what are the 2 things on the right & left of the head?? EARs?? LOL
Dan
Hey Free,
You seem to have a good handle on timing services for the markets.
I'm trying to find one myself, and will definitely take a hard look at TC.
Also, wondering if you ever checked out either "www.zauchamarketletter.com", who goes by alias 'another_indian' & entered poker's November contest, or services offered by "dr stoxx" (same alias name on ihub).
Thanks
OT - I partially tore rotator cuff or something in my shoulder throwing a softball too hard, too early in the season, about 15 tears ago. The pain radiated down my upper right arm from the shoulder. Couldn't even lift my arm to brush my hair. Had a couple cortisone shots but they only worked short term - several weeks. Ended up doing extended physical therapy. That involved pulling rubber bands streched between my foot and hand, and extending over head, at various angles. Initial band was like spaghetti and progressed to stiffer and stiffer bands. Eventually used weights. Other exercises also. Whole process took 6+ months, but never had and further problems.
Good luck
Fast Eddie
OT FM, I wish you the best with this. I have a bad knee from an old sports injury, and when it flares up it is excruciating. Please keep us informed.
gloe
Husk,
8/14 was a great entry. CJ got in at 8/15 two days before me. I was in on 8/17 at the open.
I am sure you posted it, but what is your adaptation? How do the signals compare to tc? It looks like it was a little early on this last one.
THanks,
FM
OT: Shoulder injury. Has anyone had a shoulder injury from sports injuries in years gone by? I have and I was told that surgery wouldn't help it. It is usually fine but then every few months I will move my arm wrong and be in incredible pain for hours to days. I figured I would have to live with pain the rest of my life.
Someone told me about prolotherapy recently and I went in today and got my first treatment. It looks very promising. What is it? Don't laugh. It is getting shots of sugar into your shoulder which irritates your tendons and makes them get stronger and bigger. It is a permanent fix. I know a few people who swear by it.
I am hopeful it will work for me. It works for about 70% of patients and the pain is totally gone at the end.
Just a post letting folks know about this. Look it up where you live and find a good doctor if you are interested. At the end of my 6 treatments, I will post again and let everyone know how it went.
Man, is he a broken record or what? One of these days he will be right and he will say he told everyone. LOL
OT: Right, LOL. He is soooo honest and above reproach. I refer to him now as the Joke instead of the Joker.
Jim
He's doing fine. After todays blast up 13 points out of a C&H he says "the end for SOX".
Oh, & BTW, because of some wavy stuff "this advance is over."
I'm glad he got that posted tonight, may have saved us from making a big mistake tomorrow.
Dan
OT: The joker must be doing really well with his puts when the market is going up parabolically. At least he has said that in the past. I know the joker would never tell a lie... LOL
Hi Keith; I see your advanced CSGCOS indicators have been short, and now long again since 11/10. My own CSGCOS adaptation has been long without change since 8/14. Obviously, that is good since it has caught all the uptrend...it was real close on a NASI 10/17 crossover a couple days ago, but the NASI is looking stronger, and the 10 beginning to move away from the 17ema. If this strength continues, my adaptation won't go short until rsi5 > 85...which could happen.
It's obvious that when a down trend does develop, that my system will be much slower to turn...it's hard to say whether Sir Whippy or my subdued version will be more profitable..I think the whipsaws will hurt the turbo's performance, while the slow turns will hurt mine.
Pokersam's puts must be dust by now. SMH up over 3% today. Ouch. If you lose enough money, you'll be up 7 grand. LOL
May we all suffer the joy of a worthy fire. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWTjLVN23Q0&feature=related
Take a majic carpet ride: http://video.google.es/videoplay?docid=-4489968429420141132
Get your butt out of the rut: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8787452113268513375&q=christopher+walken&hl=en
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We talk I.T. stuff here.
Please keep the chatter down, the sense of humor up, show knowledge of the topic, and be ready to defend what you say, or we'll rip you to pieces (just kidding, maybe).
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Live CSGCOS Charts:
Basic:http:http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p60665079113&a=87....
Advanced:http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p45881470115&a=84...
Rule Sets:
Basic (used for above chart): http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13353353
Advanced:
Other's Adaptations:
Husk version: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p01433658634&a=89...
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