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REI, being smaller, has capital constraints of
managing and balancing growing
production and reducing debt...
Conventional well results should have
a little better stickum to hold up with
less depletion than shale drillers...
[ I remember your class on this ]...
Lack of more capital to increase that
process increases the timeline...
But that also leaves the fruit of reserves
to drill on for longer...
Need more stickum on price rises...
So we watch...LJ
Pretty big move for little Ring today. Got up as high as 2.01 but slipped back below 2.00 to 1.99.
If oil can hold for the rest of the month, Ring should have a nice Q3 and attract some attention with their latest acquisition adding a little $$$ and higher oil prices helping the bottom line.
Ring is definitely struggling compared to some of the bigger players. They have good profits and are using their capital wisely but market doesn't seem to care, giving them a 2 p/e while other bigger Permian players get 5+. I have a few shares of Matador and they are doing very well compared to Ring. Bigger players also make better acquisition targets for the really big Permian players. OXY or Pioneer would probably spin off the CBP acreage, even if they were interested in buying Ring's traditional horizontal drilling acreage. There has been a fair amount of consolidation in the Permian as everyone is trying to get bigger to ensure efficient operations. They're not making more Permian acreage so the big boys with lofty stock prices have a big advantage in bidding wars. Not sure Ring has the right acreage to attract the BIG players.
Still, I like their practical approach and the stock is still dirt cheap. Holding and Hoping!
REI should have done a small reverse
split, like 1 for10, instead of raising
share count, IMO...
Then with a higher share price, we
could sell some calls with price rallies
and help make up some losses...
The lower share price area isn't drawing
more new investors for that reason...
It's hard looking way up and waiting...
https://stocktwits.com/sgtcw1/message/543877496
So we watch...LJ
Bought LEAPS over the past couple of weeks. Mature 1/25 with a $1 strike. Bought half at 1.15 and the other half at 1.05. Pretty low premium for over a 1 year time frame. If Oil stays around high 80's, Ring is going to be printing money and should move back above $2 easily. My avg cost is 1.11 so need share price to exceed 2.11 by 1/25 to make a little money.
Also someone posted that sale by Strongholder owners is done. 12.6 million shares were sold on 8/9/23 so that should not be holding back the stock. Next earnings may be the positive shock that this stock needs.
Had a gtc buy order slapped so hard
in the morning that it stirred
up the chickens...
Might buy near the bottom one day...
So we watch...LJ
Stronghold owners are selling 12.6million shares to fund a new venture. They announced on 8/9/23. You can see big dip and high volume for two days but not nearly enough to account for 12.6million shares. I got scared about oil and sold REI around 1.75 a few weeks ago. Regretted decision and so happy to buy back during this artificial weakness. Got some at 1.80 this morning. Hoping for more weakness. Fundamentals haven't changed. Biggest problem is mgmt is taking prudent course of action. Drilling low cost wells that don't produce high production volumes but are economically smart. My next buy order is at 1.75. We'll see if REI continues to sag. Volume is still suspiciously low. They must know that they are going to knock the price down. Sooner or later, they have to sell and get the money to move on. Hopefully it won't go too low. 52 week low is 1.68.
REI,,, hopefully they maxed out forward natural
gas hedges on Wednesday...
That pump up price day was for
that reason with big production of
nat gas exceeding demand...
REI needs to make a good move
at some time that the market likes
to restore confidence...
So we watch...LJ
WAHA traded at 2.42 this week and up
from 2.11 last week...
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
Price is affected by heat wave...
Beats the almost nil levels of 4th, quarter
of 2022 which lowered nat gas revenues
across sector...
Good time to hedge sales ahead because
it may not stay so strong for very long...
So we watch...LJ
LMFAO..WHAT A JOKE..VOLUME 37 SHARES....
U.S. Commercial Oil Inventory is 2% below
the five year average for this
time of year...
Gasoline inventories 8% lower than
five year average this time of year...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Going into summer...
May SSTs in 2023 were much warmer
in Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
than in past four years...
Caribbean is south of Gulf of Mexico...
Buyers may be on Tropical vacations...
So we watch...LJ
06/01/21, REI $2.70+ /share, WTI $73+ /bbl...
06/01/23, REI $1.80 /share,
06/01/23 WTI $70+ /bbl...
'What we have here, is a lack of
appreciation'...
https://hfir.substack.com/p/the-saudi-put?r=f2v8q&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
So we watch...LJ
Should have been enough time and volume for
warrants to be laundered into
the float now...
So we watch...LJ
REI should consider discounting their Delaware
Basin property of about 18,000
net acres to reduce debt...
https://www.ringenergy.com/our-operations/delaware-basin
REI has good operations in NWS
and CBP to support their higher debt
after acquisition in 2022 was done and
hold onto the Delaware Basin property...
Economics of reducing debt now with
higher interest cost favor selling it
more than holding it...
REI revolver debt went from about
$280 million at 03/31/2022 to about
$422 million at 03/31/2023...
Around $142 million higher due to
2022 acquisition...
Problem is higher interest rates have
increased the interest costs...
Interest cost of about $3.4 million at
end of 03/31/2022 grew to about
$10.4 million at end of 03/31/2023...
Economics now says there is greater
incentive to price the Delaware Basin
property to sell with the current higher
oil price market...
And that potential sale paid on the
revolver debt would reap compounding
benefits going forward with much lower
interest costs on the debt revolver...
03/31/2022 info...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_35de2e812ee925b7646bd8a09f088625/ringenergy/db/856/7666/pdf/REI+Q12022+Earnings+2022+Investor+Deck+5.11.22+VFINAL.pdf
03/31/2023 info...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_35de2e812ee925b7646bd8a09f088625/ringenergy/db/856/7714/pdf/REI+1Q2023+Earnings+2023+Investor+Deck+5-4-23+FINAL.pdf
And there are plenty of places for
REI to drill on their NWS and CBP
properties with more funds available...
Delaware Basin property isn't really
cheap either to be selling from...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/market-us-oil-acreage-booms-along-with-crude-price-recovery-2021-06-07/
So we watch...LJ
REI 88 million revenue versus 68 million
revenue in quarter a year ago...
So we watch...LJ
Ruff time to report earnings in oil patch...
U.S. oil inventories have dove
downward over past month,,,
while U.S. oil exports accelerated,,,
while China is buying heavy due to
reopening their economy after two
years of shutins for citizens...
And oil price is Well below $100/bbl.
this year so far...
Keeping a cap on rig counts in play
with high drilling costs...
Ruff time to report earnings...
So we watch...LJ
New warrant shares may not be laundered
out by then if volume doesn't
pick back up...
Penny stock investors are very educated
as you see by the declining volume...
Dilution is driving share price down
while many well run oil companies
have put share buy backs in place
with good oil prices...
So we watch...LJ
1. no, 2. no, 3. no, 4.no, 5. yes,,,
5. yes, need firm to double check
company accounting...
If you didn't price a prior deal at
total value from start in past, then
why should you be allowed to
disperse more shares that way?...
So we watch...LJ
REI needs some managers with brains even if
they have to adopt some...
So we watch...LJ
REI 1.84, only shows about half float shorted
on Yahoo stats page...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REI/key-statistics?p=REI
Why would anyone try to squeeze
something so cheap and unwanted?...
Lol, better question, who is doing the
math for the percentage of the
float shorted on REI?...
So we watch...LJ
REI CEO bot 100,000 shares on Wednesday...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16501164&guid=B2A-kF02DfImB3h
Let's see how he likes being
a bagholder...
So we watch...LJ
Yes, REI increased over 5 million BOE per
day in 4th quarter versus yearly
average after late 3rd quarter deal...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3a449d211ea44a5f243cbd9d861be38e/ringenergy/db/856/7706/pdf/REI+10K+2022+Earnings+IR+Deck+Final.pdf
So that is only reason that the yearly
increase was highlighted more...
Getting the pipeline from Permian Basin
to SoCal reopened in March should
help all producers with WAHA pricing...
REI getting back to Howard projects
should help them the most...
So we watch...LJ
Production is really forecast to stay flat for 2023. Ring was producing around 13Kboepd when they bought Stronghold and they added 5K boepd so the combined total was 18K. That's what Ring is projecting for all of 2023. They are going to drill horizontals and cheap verticals to offset declines in existing wells. I expect them to focus on debt reduction so they are in position to make further acquisitions. Increases in oil and ngas would help them speed up the process a lot. I expect oil to move up before ngas. There will probably be a surplus of ngas in the US in 2023 because there are no LNG projects coming online until 2024-5. That's when ngas should move back up. A recession could impact both oil and ngas prices to varying degrees.
REI CC projects 40% to 50% boe/day increase
in production for all of 2023
versus all of 2022 averages...
CC link...
https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=v9vXiY51
They all seem calm, but didn't toss
out a token stock buy back program
to keep up with those share incentive
bonuses they get that increases the
overall total amount...baby steps
there might help share price...
Still can't believe insider and 5%
owners aren't detailed in 10K filing...
So we watch...LJ
REI 10K showed that they finished paying
the 15 million owed to Stronghold
and the other 8 million, or so, held
in escrow was also paid per terms
in February, 2023...
So that lowered overall debt more...
Which makes me wonder why the
controlling shareholders would have
been selling out shares...
Stronghold should have made a deal
with a higher oily percentage company,
REI, to get better valuation on their
assets on a longer term basis...
Alas, the 10K filing has no description
on the Ownership positions to sway
either argument on the subject...
Which I find surprising...
So we watch...LJ
REI company presentation link...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3a449d211ea44a5f243cbd9d861be38e/ringenergy/db/856/7706/pdf/REI+10K+2022+Earnings+IR+Deck+Final.pdf
so we watch...LJ
Missed the call. Will try to find a replay this afternoon. Don't expect anything spectacular. Mgmt is conservative and going for low cost, conservative ways to drill smaller, high return wells. I imagine steady as she goes narrative to drill out the many opportunities they have.
I was disappointed in eps for Q4 but hopefully hedges will even out over time and they get a little help from price of WTI going forward. Gotta believe those Chinese drivers and travelers are going to stoke crude demand going forward into 2023-4.
That could be it,thanks, did u listen the call,how did ot go????? !!!
have to remember, they issued 63 million shares to Stronghold owners in August and September. Those folks have seen their shares fall and they want their cash. Another couple months and the sellers should be gone.
Lucy, someone has some xplaining to do...
https://stocktwits.com/DukeofPaducah/message/516360687
or everyone forgot and sold...
so we watch...LJ
Can China wipe out 2 months of inventory
building in U.S. with 10 measly
ships in March?...
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-sends-supertankers-us-gulf-crude-oil-buying-spree
Reported inventory builds haven't
been going to Cushing,a little has,
so they may be stored near ports...
So we watch...LJ
REI must have had a good year in 2022
to be awarding restricted stock...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/REI/disclosure
They aren't supposed to be just,
show up, restricted awards...
If only the share price would show
up as Well...
So we watch...LJ
Some light, oil related news for the
shorts on a cool morn...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-An-Imminent-Oil-Supply-Shortage.html
So we watch...LJ
Permian Basin Deal news article from past
week...
https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2023/01/24/oil-and-gas-companies-moving-into-permian-basin-in-100m-string-of-deals/69831997007/
so we watch...LJ
China issued second 2023 import quota increase...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Signals-Surge-In-Oil-Demand-With-Major-Increase-In-Import-Quotas.html
so we watch...LJ
It looks like a short squeeze is possible here according to Seeking Alpha! Be ready! REI !
REI is in a great rebuild position here.
See the article in Seeking Alpha!
Total oil inventory is down 218 million bbls.
including the SPR drawdown in the
U.S. in one year thru 10/07/2022...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Low U.S. gasoline demand has been
averaging about the same for months
and demand is about the same as
in early fall of 2020...
Much lower Total U.S oil inventories
during a period of weaker gasoline
demand along with it...
Just wanted to give some oil Bears
out there some comforting notes...
So we watch...LJ
Crude prices up and REI down a smidge...
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-bulls-ride-opec-wave-to-push-brent-near-100-a-barrel-2907566
So we watch...LJ
Dump REI and get over 2% in money
market account and dodge the
equity growth potential...
Market Makers are manipulating,
greedy types out to scare folks
out of good investments...
Now ya know Wall Street playbook...
Don't forget it...
So we watch...LJ
Why didn't REI share price increase
after completing merger deal?...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_de82debe0e71990d61eeda4d25addeeb/ringenergy/db/851/7679/presentation/Ring+Energy+Investor+Presentation+EnerCom+Conference+8-8-22.pdf
https://www.ringenergy.com/news-presentations-events/press-releases/detail/183/ring-energy-announces-the-closing-of-the-stronghold-permian
Tough crowd out there watching...
So we watch...LJ
8.42 on Feb., 2023 natural gas tonight...
that is fairly decent hedge money
out thru February, 2023...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGU22/futures-prices
so we watch...LJ
G.S. pegs $130 Brent in 2022 as
new year end target...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sees-5-Gasoline-130-Brent-By-Year-End.html
so we watch...LJ
REI 2.73, hot dam, a new Investor Presentation...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_0a8b07b74ba51acbb74289b0716acdfc/ringenergy/db/851/7679/presentation/Ring+Energy+Investor+Presentation+EnerCom+Conference+8-8-22.pdf
REI should be in higher cotton
after closing proposed Deal...
So we watch...LJ
Will REI post a 2nd quarter production increase
over the 1st quarter production?...
When is earnings release expected?...
So we watch...LJ
REI shares were added this week...
just a glutton for punishment...
so we watch...LJ
Memories of 2020 with oil dropping below $100/bbl.
and causing investor pauses...
Except oil dropped from almost
$60/bbl. in January of 2020 when
it peaked...
Good companies call that difference
profit between those two numbers...
So we watch...LJ