Ring Energy Inc (REI)

[littlejohn]

REI, being smaller, has capital constraints of

managing and balancing growing

production and reducing debt...

Conventional well results should have

a little better stickum to hold up with

less depletion than shale drillers...

[ I remember your class on this ]...

Lack of more capital to increase that

process increases the timeline...

But that also leaves the fruit of reserves

to drill on for longer...

Need more stickum on price rises...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Pretty big move for little Ring today. Got up as high as 2.01 but slipped back below 2.00 to 1.99.
If oil can hold for the rest of the month, Ring should have a nice Q3 and attract some attention with their latest acquisition adding a little $$$ and higher oil prices helping the bottom line.

Ring is definitely struggling compared to some of the bigger players. They have good profits and are using their capital wisely but market doesn't seem to care, giving them a 2 p/e while other bigger Permian players get 5+. I have a few shares of Matador and they are doing very well compared to Ring. Bigger players also make better acquisition targets for the really big Permian players. OXY or Pioneer would probably spin off the CBP acreage, even if they were interested in buying Ring's traditional horizontal drilling acreage. There has been a fair amount of consolidation in the Permian as everyone is trying to get bigger to ensure efficient operations. They're not making more Permian acreage so the big boys with lofty stock prices have a big advantage in bidding wars. Not sure Ring has the right acreage to attract the BIG players.

Still, I like their practical approach and the stock is still dirt cheap. Holding and Hoping!

[littlejohn]

REI should have done a small reverse

split, like 1 for10, instead of raising

share count, IMO...

Then with a higher share price, we

could sell some calls with price rallies

and help make up some losses...

The lower share price area isn't drawing

more new investors for that reason...


It's hard looking way up and waiting...

https://stocktwits.com/sgtcw1/message/543877496


So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Bought LEAPS over the past couple of weeks. Mature 1/25 with a $1 strike. Bought half at 1.15 and the other half at 1.05. Pretty low premium for over a 1 year time frame. If Oil stays around high 80's, Ring is going to be printing money and should move back above $2 easily. My avg cost is 1.11 so need share price to exceed 2.11 by 1/25 to make a little money.

Also someone posted that sale by Strongholder owners is done. 12.6 million shares were sold on 8/9/23 so that should not be holding back the stock. Next earnings may be the positive shock that this stock needs.

[littlejohn]

Had a gtc buy order slapped so hard

in the morning that it stirred

up the chickens...

Might buy near the bottom one day...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Stronghold owners are selling 12.6million shares to fund a new venture. They announced on 8/9/23. You can see big dip and high volume for two days but not nearly enough to account for 12.6million shares. I got scared about oil and sold REI around 1.75 a few weeks ago. Regretted decision and so happy to buy back during this artificial weakness. Got some at 1.80 this morning. Hoping for more weakness. Fundamentals haven't changed. Biggest problem is mgmt is taking prudent course of action. Drilling low cost wells that don't produce high production volumes but are economically smart. My next buy order is at 1.75. We'll see if REI continues to sag. Volume is still suspiciously low. They must know that they are going to knock the price down. Sooner or later, they have to sell and get the money to move on. Hopefully it won't go too low. 52 week low is 1.68.

[littlejohn]

REI,,, hopefully they maxed out forward natural

gas hedges on Wednesday...

That pump up price day was for

that reason with big production of

nat gas exceeding demand...

REI needs to make a good move

at some time that the market likes

to restore confidence...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

WAHA traded at 2.42 this week and up

from 2.11 last week...

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

Price is affected by heat wave...

Beats the almost nil levels of 4th, quarter

of 2022 which lowered nat gas revenues

across sector...

Good time to hedge sales ahead because

it may not stay so strong for very long...

So we watch...LJ

[cuggegrosse]

LMFAO..WHAT A JOKE..VOLUME 37 SHARES....

[littlejohn]

U.S. Commercial Oil Inventory is 2% below

the five year average for this

time of year...

Gasoline inventories 8% lower than

five year average this time of year...

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Going into summer...

May SSTs in 2023 were much warmer

in Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean

than in past four years...

Caribbean is south of Gulf of Mexico...

Buyers may be on Tropical vacations...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

06/01/21, REI $2.70+ /share, WTI $73+ /bbl...

06/01/23, REI $1.80 /share,

06/01/23 WTI $70+ /bbl...

'What we have here, is a lack of

appreciation'...

https://hfir.substack.com/p/the-saudi-put?r=f2v8q&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Should have been enough time and volume for

warrants to be laundered into

the float now...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI should consider discounting their Delaware

Basin property of about 18,000

net acres to reduce debt...

https://www.ringenergy.com/our-operations/delaware-basin

REI has good operations in NWS

and CBP to support their higher debt

after acquisition in 2022 was done and

hold onto the Delaware Basin property...

Economics of reducing debt now with

higher interest cost favor selling it

more than holding it...

REI revolver debt went from about

$280 million at 03/31/2022 to about

$422 million at 03/31/2023...

Around $142 million higher due to

2022 acquisition...


Problem is higher interest rates have

increased the interest costs...

Interest cost of about $3.4 million at

end of 03/31/2022 grew to about

$10.4 million at end of 03/31/2023...

Economics now says there is greater

incentive to price the Delaware Basin

property to sell with the current higher

oil price market...

And that potential sale paid on the

revolver debt would reap compounding

benefits going forward with much lower

interest costs on the debt revolver...

03/31/2022 info...

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_35de2e812ee925b7646bd8a09f088625/ringenergy/db/856/7666/pdf/REI+Q12022+Earnings+2022+Investor+Deck+5.11.22+VFINAL.pdf

03/31/2023 info...

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_35de2e812ee925b7646bd8a09f088625/ringenergy/db/856/7714/pdf/REI+1Q2023+Earnings+2023+Investor+Deck+5-4-23+FINAL.pdf

And there are plenty of places for

REI to drill on their NWS and CBP

properties with more funds available...

Delaware Basin property isn't really

cheap either to be selling from...

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/market-us-oil-acreage-booms-along-with-crude-price-recovery-2021-06-07/


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI 88 million revenue versus 68 million

revenue in quarter a year ago...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Ruff time to report earnings in oil patch...

U.S. oil inventories have dove

downward over past month,,,

while U.S. oil exports accelerated,,,

while China is buying heavy due to

reopening their economy after two

years of shutins for citizens...

And oil price is Well below $100/bbl.

this year so far...

Keeping a cap on rig counts in play

with high drilling costs...

Ruff time to report earnings...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

New warrant shares may not be laundered

out by then if volume doesn't

pick back up...

Penny stock investors are very educated

as you see by the declining volume...

Dilution is driving share price down

while many well run oil companies

have put share buy backs in place

with good oil prices...


So we watch...LJ

[GrandAdmiralThrawn]

May 9, 2023

[littlejohn]

1. no, 2. no, 3. no, 4.no, 5. yes,,,

5. yes, need firm to double check

company accounting...

If you didn't price a prior deal at

total value from start in past, then

why should you be allowed to

disperse more shares that way?...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI needs some managers with brains even if

they have to adopt some...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI 1.84, only shows about half float shorted

on Yahoo stats page...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REI/key-statistics?p=REI

Why would anyone try to squeeze

something so cheap and unwanted?...

Lol, better question, who is doing the

math for the percentage of the

float shorted on REI?...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI CEO bot 100,000 shares on Wednesday...

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16501164&guid=B2A-kF02DfImB3h

Let's see how he likes being

a bagholder...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Yes, REI increased over 5 million BOE per

day in 4th quarter versus yearly

average after late 3rd quarter deal...

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3a449d211ea44a5f243cbd9d861be38e/ringenergy/db/856/7706/pdf/REI+10K+2022+Earnings+IR+Deck+Final.pdf

So that is only reason that the yearly

increase was highlighted more...

Getting the pipeline from Permian Basin

to SoCal reopened in March should

help all producers with WAHA pricing...

REI getting back to Howard projects

should help them the most...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Production is really forecast to stay flat for 2023. Ring was producing around 13Kboepd when they bought Stronghold and they added 5K boepd so the combined total was 18K. That's what Ring is projecting for all of 2023. They are going to drill horizontals and cheap verticals to offset declines in existing wells. I expect them to focus on debt reduction so they are in position to make further acquisitions. Increases in oil and ngas would help them speed up the process a lot. I expect oil to move up before ngas. There will probably be a surplus of ngas in the US in 2023 because there are no LNG projects coming online until 2024-5. That's when ngas should move back up. A recession could impact both oil and ngas prices to varying degrees.

[littlejohn]

REI CC projects 40% to 50% boe/day increase

in production for all of 2023

versus all of 2022 averages...

CC link...

https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=v9vXiY51

They all seem calm, but didn't toss

out a token stock buy back program

to keep up with those share incentive

bonuses they get that increases the

overall total amount...baby steps

there might help share price...

Still can't believe insider and 5%

owners aren't detailed in 10K filing...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI 10K showed that they finished paying

the 15 million owed to Stronghold

and the other 8 million, or so, held

in escrow was also paid per terms

in February, 2023...

So that lowered overall debt more...

Which makes me wonder why the

controlling shareholders would have

been selling out shares...

Stronghold should have made a deal

with a higher oily percentage company,

REI, to get better valuation on their

assets on a longer term basis...

Alas, the 10K filing has no description

on the Ownership positions to sway

either argument on the subject...

Which I find surprising...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI company presentation link...

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3a449d211ea44a5f243cbd9d861be38e/ringenergy/db/856/7706/pdf/REI+10K+2022+Earnings+IR+Deck+Final.pdf

so we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Missed the call. Will try to find a replay this afternoon. Don't expect anything spectacular. Mgmt is conservative and going for low cost, conservative ways to drill smaller, high return wells. I imagine steady as she goes narrative to drill out the many opportunities they have.

I was disappointed in eps for Q4 but hopefully hedges will even out over time and they get a little help from price of WTI going forward. Gotta believe those Chinese drivers and travelers are going to stoke crude demand going forward into 2023-4.

[cuggegrosse]

That could be it,thanks, did u listen the call,how did ot go????? !!!

[Bobwins]

have to remember, they issued 63 million shares to Stronghold owners in August and September. Those folks have seen their shares fall and they want their cash. Another couple months and the sellers should be gone.

[cuggegrosse]

A new year low just showed up $1.90

[littlejohn]

Lucy, someone has some xplaining to do...

https://stocktwits.com/DukeofPaducah/message/516360687

or everyone forgot and sold...

so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Can China wipe out 2 months of inventory

building in U.S. with 10 measly

ships in March?...


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-sends-supertankers-us-gulf-crude-oil-buying-spree

Reported inventory builds haven't

been going to Cushing,a little has,

so they may be stored near ports...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI must have had a good year in 2022

to be awarding restricted stock...

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/REI/disclosure

They aren't supposed to be just,

show up, restricted awards...

If only the share price would show

up as Well...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Some light, oil related news for the

shorts on a cool morn...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-An-Imminent-Oil-Supply-Shortage.html


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Permian Basin Deal news article from past

week...

https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2023/01/24/oil-and-gas-companies-moving-into-permian-basin-in-100m-string-of-deals/69831997007/


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

China issued second 2023 import quota increase...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Signals-Surge-In-Oil-Demand-With-Major-Increase-In-Import-Quotas.html

so we watch...LJ

[Jawesomel]

It looks like a short squeeze is possible here according to Seeking Alpha! Be ready! REI !

[Jawesomel]

REI is in a great rebuild position here.

[Jawesomel]

See the article in Seeking Alpha!

[littlejohn]

Total oil inventory is down 218 million bbls.

including the SPR drawdown in the

U.S. in one year thru 10/07/2022...


https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Low U.S. gasoline demand has been

averaging about the same for months

and demand is about the same as

in early fall of 2020...

Much lower Total U.S oil inventories

during a period of weaker gasoline

demand along with it...


Just wanted to give some oil Bears

out there some comforting notes...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Crude prices up and REI down a smidge...

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-bulls-ride-opec-wave-to-push-brent-near-100-a-barrel-2907566


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Dump REI and get over 2% in money

market account and dodge the

equity growth potential...

Market Makers are manipulating,

greedy types out to scare folks

out of good investments...

Now ya know Wall Street playbook...

Don't forget it...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Why didn't REI share price increase

after completing merger deal?...


https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_de82debe0e71990d61eeda4d25addeeb/ringenergy/db/851/7679/presentation/Ring+Energy+Investor+Presentation+EnerCom+Conference+8-8-22.pdf


https://www.ringenergy.com/news-presentations-events/press-releases/detail/183/ring-energy-announces-the-closing-of-the-stronghold-permian

Tough crowd out there watching...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

8.42 on Feb., 2023 natural gas tonight...

that is fairly decent hedge money

out thru February, 2023...

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGU22/futures-prices

so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

G.S. pegs $130 Brent in 2022 as

new year end target...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sees-5-Gasoline-130-Brent-By-Year-End.html


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI 2.73, hot dam, a new Investor Presentation...

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_0a8b07b74ba51acbb74289b0716acdfc/ringenergy/db/851/7679/presentation/Ring+Energy+Investor+Presentation+EnerCom+Conference+8-8-22.pdf

REI should be in higher cotton

after closing proposed Deal...



So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Will REI post a 2nd quarter production increase

over the 1st quarter production?...

When is earnings release expected?...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI shares were added this week...

just a glutton for punishment...

so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

sell on oil plunge and rate hike...

[littlejohn]

Memories of 2020 with oil dropping below $100/bbl.

and causing investor pauses...


Except oil dropped from almost

$60/bbl. in January of 2020 when

it peaked...


Good companies call that difference

profit between those two numbers...


So we watch...LJ