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It appears DAXXI is sticking… look forward to Mark Foley’s call on Tuesday. Look forward to the China approvals. I have not seen definitive figures on anticipated milestone payments.
I guess I should have said $2.70 :)
A big ace here is Foshan’s China approval under which Revance will get up to 240M milestone payments (probably 50M upon approval) on top of 10-20% royalties on sales in China.
They don’t burn 50mm every quarter. You can’t just 4x Q1 as it is a quarter with lowest sales. Q1 also include ramp up cost for CD and OPUL I believe
They need better sales numbers and growth visibility than they can refinance
They need about 400m sales to break even in cash flow. Their fixed cost is high but then incremental sales will be huge to bottom line.
$280mm sales, they burn about 120mm to 140mm per year
Saw this below on twitter:
"The $100m raise in Q1 is included in the cash of $277m as of March 31, 2024. It is not additional.
At the current loss rate of ~$50m/Q, $RVNC need to make such a $100m raise every other quarter until they are "EBITDA positive in 2025" or even longer to pay off their debt.
Anyone confirm $277M includes the $100 raise? also what could RVNC do to get some debt relief. seems that's #1 reason of concern, amongst many others
Thanks for clarifying.
I just reached out to her to get clarification. Interestingly, she backtracked on the issues she insuated before. Still says RHA is her go-to filler. Says that it’s tricky to get used to but that’s minor. I know she likes the pricing as well.
Opportunity 2 good 2 miss… Nashville
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C77mnCWRHGo/?igsh=Z2dqMGhpdzllbjZs
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C545CLLLOpF/?igsh=cDkxNXBzb2gybjhl
Dis the medspa complain about the sales people/inventory, or the actual rha product? Thanks
I think the stock will just trade randomly up or down until we got some real news. It sucks but I think the reward will be worth it when things work out.
Just add to this point that it does not take much, 66% of the trades were shorts today! The shorts can easily over run the equilibrium and drive the price down!
Re: EOLS - When a CEO has such low faith in his company and has been making promotional type message like double-dose duration, it's a red flag.
Agree. Just random up and down moves
Seems to correlate with GME moves somehow too
Speculative names
I added some more
I feel it’s unbelievable value here
He’s buying a house. I don’t like that he sold. These guys get lots of shares so it’s rare to see them make open mkt purchases. I’d certainly rather see that.
As far as sales go, I don’t have a good read on Daxxify because I’m not seeing many purchases in the circles I’m in. I picked up a few more RVNC shares right before last earnings which was a mistake. (I sold most of my shares when it popped from $5 to $7). Fortunately it’s a very small position.
A couple years ago, a large Med Spa in our area was a big user of RHA filler. She told me last month “I’ve had more issues with RHA filler than any other filler”. I was a bit surprised. And I wish I had spoken to her before I bought a few more shares.
I was at an Evolus event 2 weeks ago. Of course the company portrays sunshine and rainbows. But I speak with lots of injectors and owners…..and Jeuveau keeps getting traction.
If the CEO of Evolus is selling because of sale weakness this quarter, it is weakness of their product he or she can see, not Daxxify or Botox.
brutal. just amazed endless selling at this level.
If he is selling because of sales weakness this quarter at Evolus, then that same sales weakness may apply to RVNC.
Agreed. Except RVNC is weak today mostly because the U.S. 10-Y is up 15 bp on the stronger than expected payroll print. Although I'm sure some clowns that post here would like everyone to believe it's because Daxxify "doesn't work."
Thanks for posting Ed. Not good when a CEO is dumping future options that have $7.28 strike at a $12.58 sale price x 176K shares = $933K LT cap gains minus Fed/state combined tax at 33% means take home $625K = $3.55/share. This has get me out quickly written all over it. Explains RVNC weakness today also.
What does Revance's share price have to do with Evolus' CEO exercising options not expiring for years and dumping them on the open market?
Non sequitor Ed.
Revance is at $2.00 and you write a post to mock me.
EOLS CEO David Moatazedi just exercised options for over 330,000 shares not expiring until 2028 and 2032, and then immediately sold them LOL. That's quite the surprise because I heard from @boraborak38 that double-dose Jeuveau is just as good as Daxxify. 😂
Who knows. We are 6 months in and they didnt cut the 280M number. I have been monitoring instagram posta and daxx is picking up, with 100+ tags daily.
anyone care to guess how Q2 earnings will be? Will they hit it out of the ballpark?
All my patients are obsessed with it!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6OiUaquTZQ/?igsh=ZWY5dnF3ZDRtY2pm
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6_3FC9r2hM/?igsh=cmFreHhhMjNheWgz
if you are right, then you would have never bought a single share of RVNC past year - $30s to $2.6... if your data was that accurate. so either data isn't or you have not bought any shares because of such insight.
In fact, there are data which is pretty reliable when I match it with the earnings.
I'll share it someday.
>> -2024 RHA Filler sales goal is $150 to $180 million dollars, $150 is 17% growth...Historical Data: Typical annual filler market grows is 8% to 10% per year. RHA 3 Lip launch currently happening.
Just listened to the call.
I think he said RHA should be ~$150mm. Then $10 mm for CD, leaving about $120 to $130mm for Daxxify. To hit that #, Daxxify volume needs to grow 80-90% YoY, Q1 growth was ~100%.
Not that's it's significant but I didn't hear about the $180mm figure
Just like longs was wrong as they pushing the stock up well pass 30 bucks, shorting here can turn out to be absolutely disastrous too
Let’s the sales talk
in 99% of cases w/ shorts, they do NOT have more info than we have. usually even less info. it's more technical analysis/charts, or sentiments, or competitive threats, etc. every stock has shorts. every buyout stocks had shorts who were nuked b/c they "didn't" have any more/better info. it isn't a major issue here. farthest from being a top 10 issue
If the shorts are so confident in their position, then they must know something that we don't. However, who dares to short RVNC at below $3? Either they are stupid or this company has a major cash issue.
Yesterday, 65% of the RVNC trades were shorts....seems whoever is shorting RVNC wants to simply drive the price down, versus riding the price up and making $$$
Would be anytime now.
The best would be Foley can strike a partnership deal in US for either cosmetic or therapeutic side for some big upfront cash and cost sharing
It will be a big financial relief
anyone know when China may approve Daxi through our partner? been 11 months now. seems awful long. anyone know average time for Chinese authority to approve ? i thought maybe average of 12 mo or 1 yr?
there are no "data" to track as investor? other than anecdotal, word of mouth, one or few direct contacts w/ injectors, instagram potss, etc. so what data are you talking about other than these?
RVNCfan - what data are you tracking?
I don't get why revance stopped $ 75 rebate this quarter.
It showed huge positive uptick on 1Q.
These days the data I've been tracking is not that good enough compared to 1st quarter.
We truly need 75$ coupon !!!
Allude to Q2 and how sales are going? new accounts? Thanks
Per the William Blair Investor Call today, here are some numbers:
- 2023 RHA Filler sales were $128 million dollars
-2024 RHA Filler sales goal is $150 to $180 million dollars, $150 is 17% growth...Historical Data: Typical annual filler market grows is 8% to 10% per year. RHA 3 Lip launch currently happening.
-2023 Aesthetic Daxi sales were $80 million dollars
-2023 Aesthetic Toxin sales were 2.5 billion dollars
-2024 Aesthetic Daxi goal $120 million to $130 million dollars...Historical Data - toxins annual grow at 10 to 14% per year
- 2023 Q1 versus 2024 Q1 Aesthetic Daxi "unit" sales increased 100% which is the slowest quarter of the year
- 2024 Aesthetic Daxi sales goal is to increase "unit" sales by 80% to 90% per year of year for Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 2024.
- 2024 Q1 added 500 new Daxi accounts...tend to be very sticky...currently in 7,500 active accounts
-Therapeutic 2024 Daxi sales goal is less than $10 million dollars...issue with Botox is the slow onset of action and quick return to baseline in 8 to 10 weeks....both of these issues are solved with Daxi. Daxi gives patient a much better quality of life at both ends and eliminates patients having to go on disability from the quick return to baseline experienced with Botox.
3$ lasted one day. but still think we have seen bottom at $2.6. anecdotal signs on social media/IG and my wife who takes daxi seem to be progressing. no idea if they can beat sales forecasts but $2.8 stock price doesn't do justice for the product.
On the Cosmetic side?
Interesting… the # of Allergan sales reps that moved to Revance… seen in LinkedIn.
How patients feel about DAXXIFY
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5UeGF_vsyo/?igsh=MWh5NmV4eHdybHYwZw==
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