Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[alertmeipp]

Either customers have pulled back significantly or Botox is finally losing its market share

or both I guess.

[DewDiligence]

Other than the first half of 2020 (onset of the COVID pandemic) and one or two quarters during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it had never happened until now.

[vinmantoo]

The $100M reduction in Botox sales guidance is for cosmetic indications, specifically.

I sure hope a competitor product is taking market share from ABBV. You can guess which competitor is one I hope is taking market share. The stock ticker begins with an R and ends with a C. 😆

[randychub]

Do happen to know the last time they had a quarter that was nil?

“YoY change in Botox volume — excluding the restocking effect — was essentially nil.”

[mrwilson31]

Appreciate it

[DewDiligence]

The $100M reduction in Botox sales guidance is for cosmetic indications, specifically.

For related info, please see #msg-174811564.

[mrwilson31]

Is that for cosmetic or therapeutic?
I thought AbbVie had growth in that area.

[Emannow]

Scott Reents (AbbVie)
"Given slower-than-expected near-term market growth, particularly in the U.S. and China, as a result, our total sales guidance for Botox and Juvederm will each be lower by roughly $100 million".

Botox lower by $100 million AND Juvederm lower by $100 million....

Interesting as US sales for Evolus, Galderma and Revance are all growing at double digits... but the same US market is not growing in Allergan's Analytics....Humm...maybe Allergan needs to hire a new Analytics Group.

And Botox unit sales are still below their 2 year level.

[go seek]

*Any idea as to what caused the sharp decline at the close today? Large sell order(s)?

[DewDiligence]

ABBV lowered 2024 Botox guidance by $100M compared to the guidance given three months ago. (Source: today's 2Q24 CC.)

[go seek]

Yes, this logic holds if the shorts still consider The stock a sell and expect a continued slide in the price / share. I do not know what the shorts think, but one would think they would be concerned when the stock moved up 50% in 3 weeks. Best to you vin.

[vinmantoo]

Hi vin, I am surprised… i thought the total short position would be less, given the recent run up.

go seek, my rationale is that if shorts are convinced RVNC is a failure then the higher price would make it a better bet to short. This may be backwards but I have never shorted a stock so maybe I don't understand it.

FYI, the economic data was pretty good today and seems to be lifting most stocks.

[Emannow]

AbbVie domestic Botox sales 2022 Q2 $449 million, AbbVie domestic Botox sales 2023 Q2 $420 million, AbbVie Domestic Botox sales 2024 Q2 $450 million with a 4% price increase...If you remove the 4% price increase Botox sales for 2024 Q2 = $432 million...Botox is still $18 million behind 2022 Q2 number at $449 million....Botox is definitely losing TOXIN MARKET SHARE....the AbbVie Executive Team is not truthful!

[go seek]

With yesterday’s poor US economic data, we may see an interest rate cut sooner rather than later.

[go seek]

Hi vin, I am surprised… i thought the total short position would be less, given the recent run up. It is difficult to assess given there is a time lag in the short report.

[vinmantoo]

Shorts are now 16.3 million…all time high!

The RVNC stock price bounced back from the $2.30 low a few weeks ago to almost double that price so I am not surprised shorts are back in force.

[go seek]

The shorts better cover or they will burn🔥

[Emannow]

Shorts are now 16.3 million…all time high! Is Foley is a total idiot??? Did he destroy Revance?

[go seek]

Next earnings report on 5 August…
It appears daily volume is picking up.

[Tal10]

I wouldn't doubt if the rally extends right into the earnings release. Technical traders are jumping in with the cup and handle trade, and any hint of positive news between now and earnings could trigger a major squeeze.

[go seek]

Nice rally!

[vinmantoo]

Nice to see that the RVNC roller coaster has resumed its upward swing.

[apm_com]

Perhaps a little insight from a competitor on Q2 activity and 2nd half potential:

Evolus to Report Second Quarter Financial Results on July 31, 2024
Business Wire
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif.-(BUSINESS WIRE) --Evolus, Inc. (EOLS.NaE), a performance beauty company with a focus on building an aesthetic portfolio of consumer brands, today announced that it will report its second quarter 2024 financial results on Wednesday, July 31, 2024, after the U.S. financial markets close.
Evolus (EOLS.NaE) management will host a conference call and live webcast to discuss these results at 4:30 p.m. ET that same day. A question-and-answer session will follow management's remarks.
To participate in the conference call, dial [phone] (U.S.)

[Tomdontworry]

If all holds true, we should find out China’s first approval by 8/13.

[rock mountain]

Fosun made two press releases in April and July 2023 in regard to the submission of Daxxify, for cosmetic treatment and the treatment of cervical dystonia, stating that China's NMPA accepted both applications for review. Other source state that median approval for compounds was 15,4 months (2017 -2021). Generally imported drugs take longer but the trend for approval times is going down. My guess is thus that we will see approval this Q3 or Q4 - and yes I agree that we will not see a significant impact of royalty payments from Fosun this FY. Buckle-up for 2025 as RVNC will make a significant impact in relaxing those necks in the PR of China.

[go seek]

Also beyond approval milestone payment(s)
I doubt Revance will receive royalty revenue from (China) Daxi sales this year.

[DewDiligence]

Fosun Pharma will issue a press release when China's NMPA approves Daxxify for marketing.

[Jab44]

It comes from the NMPA. I’m not sure exactly whether they share the approval on line .

[Jlinvest01]

If approved, does the company have to report it? They could keep it for themselves and mix it into Q2 report. Which wouldn't be a positive.
Any ways to track china approvals directly?

[Jab44]

That is what I’m waiting for. It would be a boost to get the registration before announcing second quarter results. Of course when Abbvie announces the analytics begin with extrapolating the Botox loss of market share and who is capturing it.

[rock mountain]

Any news on the registration in the PR of China? That should be a big boost.

[Jlinvest01]

Question is, what would the board do, in case of an unsolicited offer at this stage? Management would have to present it to them. If board would decide to launch request to other parties, they would have to pr it, and things could move up a lot real fast.

[Kydg]

How about Abbvie sales?

[Emannow]

Just like J&J who bought Mentor Breast implants and is now the #1 breast implant company in the WORLD (destroyed Allergan breast market share) RVNC will be bought by a large Pharma company, and Daxi will become the #1 toxin in the world!

It is short sighted for AbbVie to short RVNC. The Allergan executive management team is leaving one after another in the last 12 months. The management team sees the writing on the wall and knows Botox which is 20 plus yrs old and Juvederm will continue to lose market share! Allergan is not filling many positions when executives leave! Allergan is cutting costs to try and match decreasing revenues!

[Kydg]

RVNC is the only one with unique and better products. The others are all botox biosimilars but their market cap is higher than RVNC. That makes 0 sense.

Keeping RVNC share prices extremely low is their only chance to survive. If SP goes above 10$,and RVNC raise 200m,in 2 years RVNC will kill all competitors.

[Emannow]

Totally agree! AbbVie is highly shorting RVNC to keep the SP low in an effort to bankrupt RVNC so RVNC can not raise funds by selling shares! Abbive knows Daxi is replacing Botox in many accounts!

Just did an analysis with a large practice (annual Allergan purchases of $700,000 plus) which was 100% Botox and Juvederm for the last 15 yrs and over the last 9 months switched to Daxi and RHA. Their gross toxin revenue is down 6% but their toxin net profit is up 9%. They are making more profits off each patient. Additionally, variable and fixed costs are also down 8% and the injectors now have free patient space to fill over the next 12 months as they convert new patients and the USA toxin market grows 12 to 14%. They Love, love RHA and completely eliminated Juvederm. Patients LOVE Daxi and do not want Botox..this practice has completely eliminated the need for the Allergan rep in the office. Allergan knows this will happen!!!

[go seek]

RVNC’s share price is kept low by competitors, I believe.
I doubt it.

[Jlinvest01]

Shorts won't scare until we break 150dma. Below = no brrainer reload for them / Higher = they run for hills.
Might not happen in Q2, but therapeutics sales have a lot of upwards potential. Company took conservative approach because of aestethics set backs. But i strongly believe that dynamics will be different on therapeutic side.

[Kydg]

RVNC’s share price is kept low by competitors, I believe.

[vinmantoo]

Doesn't matter.

I was just joking. I didn't mean to suggest I was upset or worried. Someone whose name won't get mentioned made uninformed, reckless and inaccurate comments about Taiwan a day or two ago and the Chip/AI sector got crushed and drove the market down. Looks like that trend is continuing somewhat today.

Need good data to break the 150/200 dma. Without it, these lines will remain a glass ceiling. All hinges on execution by management. The product took shares to 40+, execution took it to 2$.

We are on the same page.

[Jlinvest01]

Doesn't matter. Need good data to break the 150/200 dma. Without it, these lines will remain a glass ceiling. All hinges on execution by management. The product took shares to 40+, execution took it to 2$.

[go seek]

and easy come again… more easy come than easy go! 😂

[vinmantoo]

Uh oh, easy come, easy go.

[DewDiligence]

Re: AEON

I am puzzled by the substantial increase in AEON's stock price…

You have to put it in perspective. AEON is still down sharply from its closing price on 5/2/24, the day before they reported the failed phase-2 trial in migraine prevention (#msg-174352699).

In my opinion, there is little to anticipate from CD, given [ABP-450’s] comparable duration to Botox.

AEON is pursing CD because they think it’s the most direct route to FDA approval of ABP-450 as a Botox biosimilar. Note that AEON has to stick to therapeutic indications because EOLS owns the commercial rights to the drug in aesthetic indications. (AEON’s ABP-450 and EOLS’ Jeuveau are the exact same drug.)

As noted in #msg-174726891, AEON is nearly insolvent and hence it’s hard to see how they complete a phase-3 trial to obtain FDA approval using the 351(k) pathway. It’s possible that the recent bounce in the share price stems from a leak that such funding is forthcoming from somewhere.

[ASPRV]

Is there an alternative method to forecast Daxxify revenue aside from monitoring Instagram or TikTok trends?

I'm frustrated with the volatility following earnings reports.

I recently acquired additional shares at $2.80, but this hasn't significantly lowered my average price.

Additionally, I am puzzled by the substantial increase in AEON's stock price. In my opinion, there is little to anticipate from CD, given its comparable duration to Botox. Furthermore, they were unsuccessful in the migraine market.

[TechandBio]

Revance my modest options from 2 weeks ago are up 123% also adding shares of ICCM curing early and later stage breast cancer patients with 97% complete response rate after 5 years. reminds me of PLSE when i started buying shares at 1.30s a few years ago,

$RVNC

[Jlinvest01]

Q2 numbers only need to show that trajectory (either sales or volume, but prefereably volume) to break even by eoy '25, is intact. This, and only this will scare them shorts. From 2$ to 4$ is nothing, merely a correction of an overreaction.

[biotech_researcher]

It was about time for a re-test..

[go seek]

Revance shorts need to cover, the Big Squeeze is on!

[apm_com]

4 handle nice, but some 0’s behind it.. then we get to proper value! Gaining traction, q2 improvement, but more of a 25’ story!! Kinda pissed that my 2.5/5 strikes might/won’t get exercised(ex-RVNC10/18/2024 2.50 PUT REVANCE THERAP)
RVNC
10/18/2024 2.50 PUT
REVANCE
THERAPEU-TICS
+$115.00(13.86%)
$0.45-
$0.15-30

Long game, decent balance sheet, traction !!