Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[go seek]

New Ad!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8cs90IRWbi/?igsh=MXQ1eTA4bHpkbzJpcA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8U0yg3gEfs/?igsh=MWxjb3lmdmMxOHRq

[go seek]

When RVNC moves up… Fast, Lasts, and WOW, a breathtakingly transformation! 🫵 👀!

[alertmeipp]

How much your doc charge for daxi vs Botox

[usma67korea]

my wife loves it. 4-5mo for her and she is repeat customer now. and her few Korean friends. i did it once last year. i have been using botox on and off for 10 years.. not an expert, just follow wife's actions. i like it but again, i am no expert. wife seems to think it's better and lasts a 'bit' longer. price isn't that important for her as much as me. korean friends care a lot more about duration than few bucks +/-

[go seek]

Scientific mind :) “one of the lucky ones”.

[Kydg]

Daxxify lasts 5 months + for me.
The doctor told me I am one of the lucky ones since most other patients have only 3-4 months. Maybe that is why the sales are not so good.
Not sure how many percentage of patients are like me. Even only 10% still good market share. Daxxify also make my skin glowing and looking 10 years younger.

[go seek]

Daxxy Day 24 June!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8M02TjJdkb/?igsh=MWNxOGJoZXg5bjJpbA==

[alertmeipp]

I think later this year after the potential suitors seeing more and more positive customers feedback

Then, talks might start

Now the share price vs valuation is just simply too huge, absent huge premium, selling out does not make sense

Even 2 billions buyout probably undervalued the company by a far margin

[go seek]

Thank you Emannow. Looking forward to the better days ahead.

[Emannow]

We are going to wake up one morning and RVNC will be bought! The conditions for purchase are moving in the correct direction!

While global M&A activity had a record year in 2021 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sheer number of deals being announced has been tepid for the last two years as high interest rates and inflation make the cost of doing business more expensive. High interest rates have increased borrowing costs and made it more difficult for companies to finance acquisitions, meaning management teams are being more selective with how they allocate capital. However, we’re starting to see inflation cool, with May’s Consumer Price Index coming in lower than expected last Wednesday.2 And as far as interest rates are concerned, both markets and the FOMC expect rates to decline over the next year. The current expectation is for a September rate cut of 25 basis points according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, followed by an additional 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting.3 If both of these continue to trend lower it should open up the probability of more deal-making towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.

[Emannow]

Per discussions with various injectors, there is a learning curve of about 4 months when switching from a 3 month toxin to Daxi! Allergan’s position to injectors is that using Daxi will lower the annual patient visits and hence net profit to the practice which is 100% a smoke screen! Allegan also offers injectors/practices big discounts on their other aesthetic products for buying Botox. This practice should be illegal, as this is a medical prescription product! Daxi actually increases profit per hour of injectors and saves patients money! Allergan just recently held a high level management meeting to keep morale up and brainstorm ways to stop Daxi from taking Botox market share! Botox is 20 plus years old and losing cosmetic market share every quarter! Botox is the profit center for Allergan, so every 1% market share lost is very painful!

On the therapeutic side, there will be a large wave of MDs who will use Daxi for off label indications because it lasts 16 to 24 weeks. These injections are just starting!!! I have friends who get therapeutic injections and their MDs have told them that they are being switched to Daxi.

The frontalis is an off label indication and can only be discussed by MSLs and injectors doing private training! The key to Daxi is placing the toxin in the middle of the muscle since Daxi does not migrate every where like Botox! Botox must be place slightly above the gabellar muscle so it does not migrate down to other muscles which cause droopy eye. As more and more patients, become aware of Daxi, injectors will be forced to offer Daxi or lose patients to competition.

[usma67korea]

on a positive note, they continue to reiterate 280M sales for 2024. despite weak Q1. and signs of other competitors having slower uptake in Q2.. so how do we make of this quiet confidence?

[iwfal]

Dog that didn’t bark: on both May 9 end-of-Q1 cc and in June 11 cc, when asked what signs the company is seeing for uptake of product… the answer was only about RHA being strong compared to ‘softness’ seen in Q1.

Second comment: the company still seems entirely unwilling to directly address the fact that figuring out how to dose outside of label (eg Frontalis) is an impediment to uptake. (Its likely their stated intent to only roll out loyalty programs that are practice based are driven by this knowledge (incentivizing patients to go to a new injector would likely be a net negative for Daxy), but they won’t directly address it. And won’t talk about incentives to accelerate this process.)

[alertmeipp]

Volume is low last couple days
Hopefully the heavy selling is behind us

And now we just need some new believers to step up

[JesterJungle1]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8GgAUUMyMg/?igsh=MTFzMTZ0b3Q5aHBlZg==

[RVNCfan]

Loyalty program and bundling with RHA?
That's exactly what I wanted to see!

[Emannow]

The Tag line.. "Fast, Last and Look" definitely identifies why Daxxify is a superior toxin versus ALL currently available 3 month toxins.

Will be nice to see the New Revance Loyalty Programs and Co-Op Programs which will be rolled out in 2024 Q3 and Q4!

[DewDiligence]

Re: EU Daxxify opportunity /cell-based potency assay

Europe awaiting animal trials green light.

No! What Foley stated on the GS webcast is that animal testing is prohibited in certain European countries, and hence RVNC is employing a cell-based potency assay to obviate the need for animal testing.

RVNC’s cell-based potency assay is currently under evaluation by the FDA; once it is cleared by the FDA, RVNC can use this assay to support a Daxxify BLA in Europe.

[Tomdontworry]

I take that back. Some markets do t allow animal testing so they have to submit another test.. no animal testing..

[vinmantoo]

They need animal trials?

Cattle being fattened for market get really nervous about their pending fate so develop frown lines. The ranchers use Botox to smooth out the lines on the faces of the cattle because better looking cattle bring a higher price at the market. 😆

[DaveAu]

Europe awaiting animal trials green light.

They need animal trials?

[kld2]

appreciate it.

[biotech_researcher]

Just listened to the Goldman interview from this morning and the CEO is focused and has a very comprehensive plan. I’m more convinced than ever he’s the right guy now. His market is so dynamic, and he detailed out how he’s evolving the Revance to challenge the competition.

[Tomdontworry]

He reiterated at least 280M for 2024. For 2025 he brought up idea to segment therapeutics revenue, and to report a breakout segment you need at least 10% of revenues coming from that segment. So he is alluding to at least $30M in therapeutics revenue for 2025.. China approval expected this year and early next. Europe awaiting animal trials green light.

[biotech_researcher]

That is where RVNC will take market share

[kld2]

anything new? Did he allude to Q2 revenue or how sales are trending?

[go seek]

GS Call good! Still guiding to ~$280M for 2024.

[RVNCfan]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8CoqLgNS52/?igsh=azdqODN5M3ZiODli

[alertmeipp]

Well, the average target price is $12.91 based on those revenue and earning forecasts

So which numbers u should use

[usma67korea]

so company needs to hit 66M or better.. that's how earnings game work... not 64M not 62M.. 66M...

[alertmeipp]

66 is avg, low 61 high 71

[usma67korea]

i see finance yahoo has us at 66M+ for Q2 revenue forecast. is this not right? where could i go for 'official' analyst forecast ?

[soma2022]

$65M would be a beat on what I believe are lower whisper numbers with weakening consumer spend numbers/higher CC debt/recession fears looming. Remember that last year they had $54.4M in Daxi/RHA Q2 sales, and $3.7M in Opul Service biz revenue which is no longer. So $66M this Q2 would be 21% growth overall for injectables and I am hearing from Allergan and Galderma reps that Q2 filler sales are weak. Hoping RHA comes in relatively strong compared to Allergan/Galderma filler sales. For this reason, I am targeting RHA at $31M and Daxi at $30M (33% y/y revenue growth and 65% y/y Daxi vial unit growth). Q2 2023 was the first full quarter of Daxi commercial launch so we should have a good apples to apples comparison for vial unit growth.

[usma67korea]

don't disagree but first, let's hit $66M+ Q2 revenue. we get another miss vs forecast, i don't know where we would be.. sub $2 maybe? really don't want to think about that..

[soma2022]

the 1.75% March 2027 Convertible notes will be refinanced without a problem once they turn profitable and continue to grow revenue.

Institutions need to feel comfortable that no further dilutive raises are coming at current debt levels. If Revance can hit that $80 to $85M revenue target by Q4 and finish the year with over $165M in cash with a cash burn in the $25M range by Q4, and Daxi sales showing solid year/year growth and market share gains, gains in therapeutic and China sales starting to kick in by 2025, then this stock should trade at 4x 2024 sales = $1.1B market cap soon after the Q4 2024 Earnings call in February = $10.50/share.

Current share price has priced in at least a 20 to 40% dilutive raise in 2025 IMO, and I don't see that being the case. I see this as a binary outcome with an action date Feb 2025 or 8 months out.

[alertmeipp]

If they get to break even 2025 and with a growing profile, they should be able to refinance 230mm in 2026 to avoid dilution if they choose to.

Then 25+ percent growth in 2026, I see them start to generate good cash thereafter. Shares price should be much healthier.

The current share price does not reflect the value

[Tomdontworry]

I think the 2027 debt is convertible at $33 so if dumb ceo can figure out a way to bring the share price up then they will either be able to convert, or refinance.

[valiano]

Thanks for your post.. Over the next 2.5 years they're due to repay 380m in principal. If they enter 2025 with 190m and burn 40m over the year, that leaves them with a ~230m gap. Granted some of that will be closed by 2026 profitability but they can't raise new debt (negative covenants) and Athyrium declined to extend the third tranche (I'd presume they're not a rush to roll over the existing notes either). Some further dilution is unavoidable imo - the bet would be that SP will skyrocket before that.

[mrwilson31]

Just looked it up. They have about 11 indications as of 2022.

[usma67korea]

if RVNC hits $60M for Q2 (forecast is for 66M+ which is 13.8% yoy increase only), shares will get hammered again. Q1 is weakest Q in revenue annually, so using Q1 revenue of 51M and to grow 15% QoQ is not quite the estimate I would use. 15% yoy Q2 increase from 2023 would be more suitable target. whether they hit it I don't know but that's how I see it

[go seek]

Reference… Botox sales 1st Qtr. (in U.S.)
Botox Aesthetics $389M
Botox Therapeutics $611M

One would think Revance should be able to grow its sales! What am I missing in this analysis? Why are Botox Therapeutics sales so high? I didn’t know the US market in (Botox) Therapeutics was so large.

[Tomdontworry]

Oops hot the wrong key, 230 total, not 240. The 50M is for 2 china filings, rest in. Milestone payments.

[alertmeipp]

>> I believe it will be in the $10 to $20M range

I think typically, companies get 10-20% so my guess would be 25-50mm range.

[alertmeipp]

>> A solid Q2 revenue increase of 15% over Q1 would get us to $60M

Last year, QoQ in Q2 was 20%. This year, with RHA3, abnormal low growth in Q1 RHA, renewed Daxxify strategy and no coupon hit.

I am hoping for > 15% growth this year. However, the base is larger so maybe 15% is reasonable.

[soma2022]

$277M was cash at quarter end March 31, 2024 and after the $100M raise.

Non GAAP OPEX this year trending to bottom of range $290M to $310M....So let's assume $295M for full year minus $73.6M in Q1 = $221M for remainder of year.

$280M total revenue guidance for 2024 minus $52.1M in Q1 = $227.9M Revenue for remainder of 2024. This does not include any milestone payments from Fosun/Viatris.

$227.9M x 72% GMs = $164M Gross Profit for Q2 to Q4 2024.

$164M GP minus $221M non GAAP opex = $57M Non GAAP loss for remaining 3 quarters.

Now add debt paydown and Interest expenses and finance lease payments of $35M for remainder of year:
Net Interest Expense of $2.3M/qtr for next 3 quarters:
My estimate of Finance Lease pre-payments (this is for Anji and PCI manuf/Fill/finish facilities): $8M/qtr
Athyrium debt payments: $2.5M total Q3/Q4

Add in $10M to AR/AP deficit/working capital as sales grow and I have cash burn of $57M + $35M + $10M = $102M

$277M - $102M = $175M Cash to end 2024 plus any milestone payment from Fosun/Viatris = $15M and based on current Revenue projections, Revance should finish 2024 with $190M.

Assuming revenue hits $85M in Q4: $39M RHA (15% year/year increase) , $38M in Daxi Aesthetic (58% y/y revenue increase), and $8M Daxi for CD; and we should shrink cash burn to around $27M in Q4.

Revance will need $110 to $115M in quarterly revenue to get to cash flow break even. My thinking: $40M RHA, $50M Daxi Aesthetic, and $20M Daxi CD. Should be recognizing China Fosun daxi sales by 2025 first half of 2025.

When will this happen? Q2 to Q3 2025. Revance should have over $100M cash remaining despite the accelerating Athyrium loan payoff schedule.

A solid Q2 revenue increase of 15% over Q1 would get us to $60M but that means Q3 and Q4 will need to see some big revenue growth and I am not so confident they will hit their revenue guidance so I feel that $280M revenue guidance for 2024 is at risk. My rev target is $265M, and, while disappointing, I still see Fosun milestone payment and CD milestone payments in 2025 as countering the $10M higher cash burn for 2024.

[soma2022]

Where are you getting your info on such a high milestone payment upon approval in China for Glabella? I believe it will be in the $10 to $20M range, CD approval will follow later this year or in 2025 and trigger another milestone payment. But the majority of the $220M contingent payments will be for sales milestones in China over the coming years.

from last 10Q:
As of March 31, 2024, Fosun has paid us non-refundable upfront and other payments totaling $41.0 million before foreign withholding taxes. We are also eligible to receive (i) additional remaining contingent payments of up to $219.5 million upon the achievement of certain milestones, and (ii) tiered royalty payments in low double digits to high teen percentages on annual net sales.

https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/revance-announces-first-patient-enrolled-for-daxibotulinumtoxina-in-glabellar-lines-and-cervical-dystonia-in-china-by-fosun-pharma/

Under the terms of the license agreement, Revance is eligible to receive additional potential development and sales milestone payments of approximately $230 million, as well as tiered royalty payments in low-double-digit to high-teen percentages on future annual net sales.

[vinmantoo]

I’ve been honest from the beginning.I give the info as I have it. And if I get something wrong, I will acknowledge.

I do appreciate that. I was teasing you a bit but you have to acknowledge that 2 wrong and or negative comments in a few days isn't a good look.

And I think that if you look at my comments and concerns since the launch, I’ve been pretty accurate.

Sad but true.

That being said, I’m long shares with an avg price in the $4s so I’d like the stock to go up

I am hoping the same although my average price is a bit higher, in the mid $5s.

[alertmeipp]

So would you report back if you chat your friend next time and he changes his mind and tell you he does not like RHA again?

Next time, maybe do some more diggings before you post, that would avoid mislabeling like this

[boraborak38]

I’ve been honest from the beginning.I give the info as I have it. And if I get something wrong, I will acknowledge. And I think that if you look at my comments and concerns since the launch, I’ve been pretty accurate. That being said, I’m long shares with an avg price in the $4s so I’d like the stock to go up

[vinmantoo]

I guess I should have said $2.70 :)

No worries, just try to be accurate. You also had to backtrack on a negative comment you made about the RHA filler. Just try to be a bit more careful or people will start thinking you are just coming here to troll and spread misinformation.