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The Restaurant Stock Bubble of 2011 Could End Badly
by: Rougemont July 6, 2011
Restaurant stocks have been one of the top performing sectors, especially with certain stocks that have become wildly popular. Investors love stocks that go up, just as many loved real estate as it was going up, and the upward trend and lofty valuations could last a little longer. However, there comes a time when it makes sense to sell stocks when they are priced at perfection levels. With the run these stocks have had, and the high PE ratio and other valuation metrics, chances are these stocks will not be able to continue to provide the type of gains they have been for the past couple years.
Investors might want to think seriously about whether these stocks are priced for perfection and therefore could easily drop on any disappointing news. The recent rally seems to be based on nothing more than momentum and short covering, not common sense based on solid valuations. Many of these stocks hit new 52 week highs yesterday, and this sector could be putting in a final speculative "blow off" top right now. You have a combination of highly stretched valuations, a very large amount of insider selling and frothy speculation rampant in these stocks with investors following a momentum-based trend, rather than using common sense. These indicators were present with Internet stocks and real estate just before they plunged. These are the signs you see when major tops are made. I believe many investors buying at these levels will be faced with large losses in most of these names in the next few months.
So far these stocks have defied gravity and some shorts have been badly hurt, however at some point, there is no doubt that these will fall under their own weight sooner or later. The more stretched valuations get in the sector, the more likely this bubble ends badly. These might be great companies with excellent management, but valuation still matters if you want solid returns and to avoid losses on your investments. Investors who paid too much for great companies in the past were often faced with large losses or many years of little to no gains. The stocks below are also overbought based on the relative strength index. I think it makes a lot of sense to follow the executives and directors at most of these companies and cash in while you can:
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) is trading near it's 52 week high of $55.05. The relative strength index is about 81 which indicates these shares are very overbought. These shares have risen from a 52 week low of $21.11 and hit a new 52 week high today. The 50 day moving average is $48.25 and the 200 day moving average is $38.59. The earnings estimates for 2011 are about $1.06 per share, and $1.27 for 2012. This puts the PE ratio at about 50 which is far too rich in my opinion. Insiders have been repeatedly selling shares. See insider selling here.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is trading around $321.45 per share. The relative strength index is about 78 which indicates these shares are overbought. These shares have risen from a 52 week low of $127.30 and hit a new 52 week high today. The 50 day moving average is $280.56 and the 200 day moving average is $243.98. The earnings estimates for 2011 are about $6.81 per share and $8.44 for 2012. This puts the PE ratio at well over 40 which is high for the restaurant sector. See insider selling here.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is trading around $37.38. Red Robin is a gourmet burger restaurant based in Colorado. The relative strength index is about 69 which indicates these shares are overbought. The 50 day moving average is $32.57 and the 200 day moving average is $24.63. These shares have traded in a range between $17.03 to $38.58 in the last 52 weeks. RRGB is estimated to earn about $1.47 per share in 2011 and $1.81 in 2012. You can see insiders selling here.
Peets Coffee & Tea, Inc. (PEET) shares are trading at $60.87. PEET is a coffee roaster and operates retail coffee shops. The relative strength index is about 86 which indicates these shares are extremely overbought. The shares have traded in a range between $33.20 to $61.52 in the past 52 weeks. The 50 day moving average is $50.63 and the 200 day moving average is $43.48. Earnings estimates for PEET are just $1.46 per share in 2011, so the PE ratio is about 40. You can see insiders selling here.
Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. (CBOU) shares are trading at $14.01. The relative strength index is about 70 which indicates these shares are overbought. CBOU is a coffee roaster and operates retail coffee shops. The shares have traded in a range between $8.50 to $14.49 in the past 52 weeks. The 50 day moving average is $10.84 and the 200 day moving average is $10.36. Earnings estimates for CBOU are just 38 cents per share in 2011, so the PE ratio is about 36. You can see insiders selling here.
The data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and Stockcharts.com. The information and data is believed to be accurate, but no guarantees or representations are made. Rougemont is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide specific investment advice. The information contained herein is for informational purposes.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/278164-the-restaurant-stock-bubble-of-2011-could-end-badly?source=yahoo
Golden Gate buying Calif. Pizza Kitchen for $470M
Golden Gate Capital buying California Pizza Kitchen for approximately $470 million
On Wednesday May 25, 2011, 8:42 am
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Private equity firm Golden Gate Capital is buying California Pizza Kitchen Inc. for about $470 million, three months after the restaurant chain put itself up for sale.
The $18.50-per-share cash bid is an 11 percent premium to the restaurant chain's $16.71 closing stock Tuesday. Shares of California Pizza Kitchen gained $2.09, or 12.5 percent, to $18.80 in premarket trading Wednesday.
California Pizza Kitchen, which got its start in 1985, serves pizzas, pastas, soups, sandwiches and other food items. It has 265 restaurants, with 205 company-run and 60 under franchise or license agreements.
California Pizza Kitchen began exploring a potential sale of the company in February. The Los Angeles company's board unanimously approved the deal and recommends stockholders tender their shares in the tender offer.
"Golden Gate Capital is a leading investor in the restaurant industry, with a proven track record as a value-added partner to its portfolio companies, and we believe that its significant commitment and experience in the sector will benefit all of our stakeholders," co-CEOs and co-Chairmen Rick Rosenfield and Larry Flax said in a statement.
Golden Gate's other restaurant buyouts include the purchase of On the Border last year. And last month Lawson Software Inc. agreed to a $2 billion acquisition offer from Golden Gate and Infor.
An affiliate of Golden Gate will start a tender offer for all of California Pizza Kitchen's outstanding shares by June 8. The acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter.
Wendy's/Arby's shares rise on takeover inquiry.
Wendy's/Arby's Chairman Peltz says he was approached by group on possible deal; shares rise
CHICAGO (AP) -- Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc. Chairman Nelson Peltz said he's reviewing an overture from an unnamed group interested in acquiring the fast-food company.
His disclosure, made late Thursday in a regulatory filing, sent shares up 19 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $4.53 in midday trading Friday.
Peltz, whose investment firm owns 23.5 percent of the company's shares, gave few details about the inquiry, which he disclosed in a regulatory filing late Thursday.
But he said the possible deal could include his participation and that he would work with financial advisers to discuss the transaction. Among the many possiblities he listed in his filing, Peltz said he would likely meet with debt and equity financing sources regarding a possible deal.
Peltz led Arby's former parent Triarc Cos., which acquired Wendy's in 2008.
A spokesman for the fast-food chain declined to comment on Friday, as did a representative from Peltz's Trian Fund Management.
Wendy's/Arby's Group, based in Atlanta, has struggled during the recession as customers scaled back on even cheap eats like fast food. Arby's, with its pricier menu, was particularly hurt, despite efforts to offer value meals and other discounted menu items.
In the most recent quarter, the chain lost $3.4 million, or a penny per share, as Arby's poor sales continued to drag down results. That compares with a loss of $10.9 million, or 2 cents per share, the previous year.
To fix the brand, the company is heavily promoting its new dollar menu that was added to 3,700 Arby's locations in April. It includes items like a small roast beef or chicken sandwich as well as curly fries.
Removing 3 cents per share in charges, earnings amounted to 2 cents per share.
Total revenue fell 3 percent to $837.4 million from $864 million.
Morningstar analyst Joscelyn MacKay said she thinks the company's potential suitor is another restaurant owner, not a private equity firm. That's because the company's size -- far smaller than rivals McDonald's Corp. and Yum Brands Inc., makes it more suited for a so-called strategic deal, than a financial one, she said.
"The combination of Wendy's and Arby's created such a large-scale company," she said. "I would really think that any kind of transaction would be to even improve on that."
But she said any news from a possible combination or buyout is likely far off.
The announcement comes less than two months after the operator of Carl's Jr. and Hardee's restaurants a $694 million buyout offer from an affiliate of Apollo Management VII LP.
The private equity firm's offer was accepted after it topped another bid from a second private equity firm, Thomas H. Lee Partners.
Wendy's/Arby's Group runs more than 10,000 restaurants in the U.S. and 24 countries and U.S. territories worldwide.
The company's stock is trading at the midpoint of its 52-week range. Shares have traded between $3.55 and $5.55 in the past year.
Short short and short. Nice buys in 6-12 months.
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. Announces Results of 2010 Annual Meeting of Stockholders
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN), the parent company of Wendy’s International, Inc. and Arby’s Restaurant Group, Inc., today announced the results of its 2010 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which was held on May 27, 2010 in New York City.
The Company’s stockholders voted to elect 12 directors: Nelson Peltz, Peter W. May, Clive Chajet, Edward P. Garden, Janet Hill, Joseph A. Levato, J. Randolph Lewis, Peter H. Rothschild, David E. Schwab II, Roland C. Smith, Raymond S. Troubh, and Jack G. Wasserman. Each director will serve until the 2011 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Eleven of the twelve directors were previous Board members. Peter Rothschild is a newly elected Board member and replaces former New York Governor Hugh L. Carey, who did not stand for re-election.
In addition, the Company’s stockholders voted in favor of the 2010 Omnibus Award Plan and a proposal to ratify the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the Company’s independent registered public accountants. The Company’s stockholders voted against a stockholder proposal regarding poultry slaughter.
Following the stockholder meeting, the Board of Directors voted to establish a Director Emeritus position and appointed former Board member, Hugh Carey, as Director Emeritus. Former Governor Hugh Carey has served on the Board for 16 years.
Additionally, the Board approved an increase in the Company’s stock repurchase authorization by $75 million to a total of $325 million. Since the Board authorized a stock repurchase program in 2009, the Company has repurchased approximately 47 million common stock shares for $223.1 million as of May 25, 2010, at an average price of $4.73 per share. The current common stock repurchase program, of which $101.9 million is now available, will remain in effect through January 2, 2011 and allow the Company to make repurchases as market conditions warrant.
Roland Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer of Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, said: "On behalf of the entire board of directors and management team, we thank our stockholders for their support. We share their confidence in the future of our Company as we continue to successfully execute on our goals. We believe Wendy’s/Arby’s Group is well-positioned to create value for our stockholders as we grow sales through distinct premium and value-oriented product offerings. We also plan to effectively control costs and invest in future growth through the development of breakfast at Wendy’s, remodeling of both of our brands and international. We look forward to communicating our progress in the months and years ahead.”
About Wendy's/Arby's Group, Inc.
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. is the third largest quick-service restaurant company in the United States, and includes Wendy’s International, Inc., the franchisor of the Wendy’s® restaurant system, and Arby’s Restaurant Group, Inc., the franchisor of the Arby’s® restaurant system. The combined restaurant systems include more than 10,000 restaurants in the U. S. and 24 countries and territories worldwide. To learn more about Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, please visit the Company's web site at www.wendysarbys.com.
Hmmm lots of yummy things to nibble on around here.
Stocks I'm picking up these days.
CAKE below $25
WEN below $5
BJRI below $25
BWLD below $40
RRGB below $26
These are all for the long haul.
Buying WEN for the long haul. I think anything below $6 is good and anything below $5 is awesome!
Been a while since I've been over here...
Things have changed since the last time I've posted lol!
Tell me your in on this little run in this sector?
I happened to catch it on a scan I did this am -
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34051346
Great move, I should have been paying closer attention...
CHUX annotated chart:
Now who doesn't like Cake! lol!
GL!
I really like CAKE down here for starters...
The Cheesecake Factory Further Strengthens Its Restaurant Operations
06/18/2008 @ 4:30PM
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is pleased to announce a number of organizational changes within its Restaurant Operations team that are designed to leverage its deep pool of leadership talent and further strengthen the overall organization.
Effective immediately, David Gordon, a 15-year veteran of The Cheesecake Factory, has been named to the role of Senior Vice President, Operations, and will lead the day-to-day operations for The Cheesecake Factory restaurants. Gordon was most recently Regional Vice President, West Coast Operations, having previously served as an Area Director of Operations, as well as General Manager in two of The Cheesecake Factory’s restaurants. He will report directly to David Overton, Chairman and CEO.
In addition, the Company announced that Russell Greene has been named to the role of Senior Vice President, Operations Services, from his current role of Senior Vice President, Beverage and Bakery; Jack Belk has been named to the role of Senior Regional Vice President from his current role of Regional Vice President; and Donald Moore has been named to the role of Senior Vice President, Kitchen Operations from his current role of Vice President, Kitchen Operations.
“The Cheesecake Factory has a long-standing track record of exceptional restaurant operations and execution, which is due to the strength and tenure of leaders such as David, Russell, Jack and Donald. These individuals are focused on quality and results, and drive our standards of operational excellence,” commented David Overton, Chairman and CEO. “We are proud to recognize their achievements.” About The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated created the upscale casual dining segment in 1978 with the introduction of its namesake concept and continues to define it today with the two highest productivity concepts in the industry. The Company operates 141 restaurants throughout the U.S. under The Cheesecake Factory® name with an extensive menu of more than 200 items and fiscal 2007 average annual unit sales of approximately $10.4 million. Grand Lux Cafe®, the Company’s second concept, has 13 units in operation across the U.S. offering a broad menu of more than 150 items and average annual unit sales of approximately $12.7 million in fiscal 2007. The Company also operates two bakery production facilities in Calabasas Hills, CA and Rocky Mount, NC that produce over 60 varieties of quality cheesecakes and other baked products. Additionally, the Company licenses two bakery cafe outlets to another foodservice operator under The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Cafe® mark. For more information, please visit thecheesecakefactory.com.