Reeds Inc. (REED)

[DarkLady]

Technically it looks very weak at this time. I use the Worden Brothers and their propietaries are all negative. The technicals I also use including CMF, TRIX, MACD, PPO and the ADX are all negative. I would certainly have it on my watchlist but I would not take a position at this time.

[Slojab]

I'm on record looking for $4.50.

[up_and_down16]

I am in a dilemma too. The price looks great but the charts are not supporting it right now. MACD is going further negative, the 5d EMA is trending down and below the 20d EMA, the stochastics are below 20% and trying to recover but not that well and the momentum is negative too at the moment. RSI is in oversold territory. It is up on low volume and that is not good either.

It might be time to bottom-pick but I am not sure at all. I see that the 200 day EMA is at 5.00, not at 4.50, which is where the SMA is. I tend to use the EMA. So, it might not break 5.00, like we saw today. It hit 5.02 and bounced back, but then again, it is not the end of the day or the year. Not helping much am I !!!!!! I had sold most of my holdings and am looking to get back in.

Right now, I am in AMD. If you check the charts on that, all indicators are pointing positive. It is trying to break through its 50d EMA and if it does, with some positive news it could get closer to $3. gfp927z, slojab, DarkLady - you guys have good TA skills. Are you willing to take a stab at it and see what the charts could be portraying?

[stockerzzz1]

Cheap at $5.14

market cap - $61.59 million

Sales from first 3 quarters: $22.258m

Sales from 2012, with 15% growth rate applied to Q4 ($7.28m in Q4 2011 -- $8.37m) = $30.628m

Add a 2x multiplier from sales = $61.256 (without any kombucha)

Add in potential kombucha sales of $5-15m in 2013, plus growth from branded, start-up expenses from kombucha predicted to decrease after this Q4, add in profitability, add in buy-out potential, give it a 2x multiplier...

[gfp927z]

Slojab, I figure it might briefly spike down to the 200 MA, but doubt it will stay there for long. The company is just too solid to go into an extended funk IMO. It's a great buy and hold type stock.

Reeds could actually benefit from a larger float, to smooth out the daily volatility and illiquidity. But rather than issuing more stock, Chris Reed prefers to fund growth organically out of revenues. That's a noble strategy, and has the advantage of not diluting his own large % ownership of the company, but I wouldn't be averse to seeing a modest equity offering to pay off the company's existing debt. Why pay such high interest when you could issue a couple million shares and eliminate the debt entirely. But either way, he'll be able to pay down/off the debt from Kombucha revenues. I'd like to see a totally clean balance sheet and a somewhat larger float would also help smooth out the daily stock movements, which some days can be on the jarring side.

[Slojab]

My order is at $4.49.

Should I raise it to $4.51? ( :

[gfp927z]

With Reeds up so much, some profit taking is expected, especially with tax rates going up next year. The stock broke neckline support, but so far is holding around the first support area (mid-Aug breakout level). If it should test the 200 MA (currently 4.50), that would be a great entry point, but it might not get that low with all the buzz about Kombucha.

Kombucha is going gangbusters, and 2013 will be a breakthrough year for the company. In the August conf call, Chris Reed explained his strategy of using some of the cash bonanza from Kombucha to fund a national ad campaign for the entire Reed's product line, with the goal of making them household names. The goal is to boost growth rates from the current 20% up into the 35% range. It sounds like his exit strategy is to eventually sell the company, and he said there has been consistent buyout interest for some time. But first he wants to build and grow the business, unless he gets 'blown away with a crazy offer'.

Revenues will top $30 mil for this year (up 20% from 2011), and with Kombucha on fire I'm figuring they'll do at least $40 mil in 2013, and then revenues should really start ramping up. Also profitability will be there because of Kombucha's extremely high margins.

[DarkLady]

OK, I use weekly data in my trading. Using weekly it is a weak head and shoulders. Your daily does look more valid. I like to draw a trend line below the weeklies. It gives a clear break down. All my technicals are definitely down. It is still one I will keep an eye on. However, I have gone flat except for two stocks.

[gfp927z]

Here's the head and shoulders formation -







Head and Shoulders reversal pattern -


http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

[DarkLady]

I don't see a head and shoulders. All the technicals are decidely negative at this time. Time to sit on the side lines.

[PoppySeed]

Head and shoulders... now is that a right shoulder peak from the previous head, or a new left shoulder forming? In either case, where's the neckline?

[Andy68]

wow, what a ride. I expected a bounce, but I did not expect 10% intraday. jeesh, I might have to take profits before the day is out.

Andy

[PoppySeed]

The answer to your question Andy is two words: "human nature"

Regular folks tend to set stop losses at very specific numbers. When they see a dip, they worry that this thing will bottom out once it hits the next "new low", but others are waiting for that exact moment to trigger their buys.

[Andy68]

what is it about $5 that seems to always be the magic line?

The price dipped below $5 and triggered my purchase. I'm long again...go REED!!!

Andy

[Slojab]

Someone is unloading. Why?

[Andy68]

I saw pictures of politicians smiling, shaking hands, and slapping each other on the back, which can mean only one of two things.

Either they have reached an agreement on the fiscal cliff, or the world is in fact going to end on 21-Dec-12, as the Myans predicted, and they figured its time to start drinking.

As far as REED is concened, anything under 5$ seems cheap, so I will pick some up. But REED came up pretty fast, and is not immune to going back down. I DO expect a bounce here soon, but I'm not a big fan of buying on the way down.

good luck to all
Andy

[Slojab]

Reed's Inc. Expands National Presence of New Culture Club Kombucha

Reed's, Inc. (NASDAQ: REED), maker of the top-selling sodas in natural food stores nationwide, is delivering successful distribution results with the rollout of Culture Club Kombucha into the $609 million+ Functional Juice & Kombucha Beverage category.
Our initial strategy was to launch on the west coast only and gain consumer, distributor and retailer response. Due to overwhelming positive feedback, we have now entered into distribution centers throughout the country, including United Natural Foods and their twelve distribution centers, Kehe Natural Food Distributors and Nature's Best Distribution. Additionally, the Culture Club Kombucha launch has sparked interest with new specialty distributors and existing DSD network distribution. This successful national rollout to date has resulted in placement in over 1,200 natural food stores with momentum just starting to build. Initial chain authorizations include select Whole Foods regions throughout the US, Fairway Market, The Fresh Market, Lassen's, Earth Fare, and Bristol Farms, with many more announcements to follow.
Chris Reed, founder and CEO, states, "The launch of our new Culture Club Kombucha has exceeded our expectations. According to recent syndicated data, the functional juices and Kombucha category has surpassed $609 million and is the fastest growing category at +35% retail dollar growth. In our early store-by-store analysis, we are finding that our four Kombucha flavors are tracking to outsell our top four Reed's and Virgil's SKUs. Consumer and retailer feedback has been extremely positive to date and we intend to capitalize on the feedback and the opportunity to build Culture Club Kombucha into a national, dominant player within this fast-expanding category."

[Slojab]

1- dips below 5, creates momentum which leads to upswing

I'll start buying if it dips below $4.50 unless we find out there's reason not to.

[PoppySeed]

I like the way you think :)
Investors being a predictable bunch, I foresee three possible scenarios:

1- dips below 5, creates momentum which leads to upswing
2- does not dip but flatlines at mid-6 levels until the next quarter earnings (crosses fingers)

or

3- Fiscal Cliff

IMHO

[Andy68]

I agree. But this thing ran up pretty hard. It needs to breathe again, but I'm just not sure when to jump in.

I think if she breaks under $5, I'll take a small position, and start keeping an eye on it again.

JMO,
Andy

[DarkLady]

So did I around 8. Too early to test the waters. All the technicals have turned negative. Just be patient. The "Fiscal Cliff" is going to cause many to go "Flat". That is sell all positions until it clears up. I'm still invested but cautious, have sold many.

[PoppySeed]

No surprise here, as it has been the case almost every year, REED pulls back drastically every December (without fail) only to bounce back in January.

[Andy68]

I sold all my REED three weeks ago or so...
I'm looking for a good price to get back in, by the candles aren't looking so great right now. But the price looks good. There has to be a bounce here soon.

Just My Opinion,
Andy

[Slojab]

It's even a little cheaper now then when you posted.

I'd like to know why the drop today.

[Trueheart]

I made a mistake in my calculations, Slo. It's a 62% gain back up to $8.82. Maybe, maybe. :)

Trueheart

[Slojab]

Who's going to nibble here?

[Slojab]

The head and shoulders pattern I mentioned it looked like it was forming is a little deformed, but still..... ( :

Time to buy for an almost 50% gain to the top?

Maybe. Almost.

But I'm skeered it might go lower still, True! lol

[Trueheart]

The share price broke through the rising bottoms in early November and has been declining since. Time to buy for an almost 50% gain to the top?

Trueheart

[gfp927z]

TA-wise, there is a possible head and shoulders forming (see chart below), though still early. Also, Q-4 revenue comparisons will be somewhat more difficult since they did $7.9 mil in Q4-2011, and thus will need approx $9.5 mil in Q4-2012 to maintain the 20% growth rate. With Kombucha sales ramping up, it could happen, but will be a tougher YOY comparison for one quarter.

Longer term though, Reed's looks extremely good. Kombucha has monster potential, and with a market cap of only $80 mil, there's a ton of upside for the stock IMO. Reed's has great management with a vision, and with a 26% ownership stake (3.1 mil shares), Chris Reed is averse to dilution. He wants to use the growing cash bonanza from Kombucha to fund ad campaigns for all the other Reed's brands and make them household names. Kombucha has nearly double the profit margins of Reed's existing product lines, which already have very strong margins.

[AliEn BRaInZ stox]

There is a clear double bottom. It's quite simple as from here we either break down to next support or bounce..
I am still pretty sure we have HARD SUPORT @ $6
Obviously a few people trying to short this stock however they have picked the wrong company.
REEDS product quality and management is top notch and that will sustain odds to be in longs favor IMOP
Best Of Luck

[AliEn BRaInZ stox]

Agreed - I added to my core position today which has shares purchased as low as $1.27 from last November.. Like I said - Added @ 6.61

[DarkLady]

You have to unnderstand I trade weekly. I watch daily but make all my trading decisions on weekly data. Given that, the technicals have all turned negative at this moment. It should definitely be on your watch list.

[Slojab]

I'm not a TA person, actually.

I look more at fundamentals to consider whether I like the company and only consider the charts for entry/exit points.

[up_and_down16]

DarkLady, slojab:

I sold at 7.30 as well because I wanted to buy something else. What I was trying to figure out was if the trendlines were broken and this would go down further. Since you folks are good TA experts, can you let me know what you think of the technicals?

[Slojab]

I sold at $7, so obviously I'm thinking it's a hold here.

Whether it'll trend sideways through the eoy or form a head and shoulder's pattern, I would never say.

But until something changes, I don't expect I'll be rebuying soon.

Now, having said that, watch it go to $10. LOL

[DarkLady]

Go back and read my recent posts.

[up_and_down16]

Is the run up for this stock done? It's broken the 50 day MA and is trending down to the 100 day MA which right above $6.

Thoughts on this folks? stockerzzz1, DarkLady, slojab? Eager to know if it is a buy now or wait till it bounces off one of the averages.

Cheers and GLTA!!!

[stockerzzz1]

Snoop Dogg and Chris Reed

Looks like the non-profit work continues. Snoop has 1.4 million followers on Instagram and after this photo, Reed's Inc went from 500 to 840 followers within 1 hour.

[stockerzzz1]

Reed's Kombucha Secures D.C. Distribution Agreement

LOS ANGELES, CA--(Marketwire - Nov 27, 2012) - Reed's, Inc. ( NASDAQ : REED ), maker of the top-selling sodas in natural food stores nationwide, announced today that Hana Food Distributors Inc. will be distributing their new Reed's Culture Club Kombucha throughout the greater Washington, D.C. market. Headquartered in Forestville, Maryland, Hana Food Distributors is a full service gourmet and specialty foods distributor. Their customer base includes supermarkets, grocery stores, delicatessens, convenience stores, gas stations and newsstands located throughout Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina markets. Distributing brands like Bolthouse Brands, GT Synergy, Naked Juice, Horizon Organic Dairy, Organic Valley Dairy Products and San Pellegrino Water, Hana's primary focus is to deliver gourmet quality, healthier, all natural foods throughout their marketplace.

Neal Cohane, Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing for Reed's, Inc., commented, "Hana Distributors opens Reed's Culture Club Kombucha to Mid Atlantic consumers looking for the best tasting Kombucha in the market today. Securing this distribution with Hana will provide Reed's new exposure and a foothold in open coolers, as well as refrigerated dairy and produce sections throughout supermarket and specialty stores in this key marketplace."

[stockerzzz1]

Reed's Kombucha Lands in Whole Foods!

From their Facebook page, with a photo included. Most likely the partial Whole Foods launch that CEO Chris Reed discussed on the Q3 conference call (available at reedsinc.com) with a full launch coming later.

[Andy68]

can you expand on why you think so?

Andy

[slapthatask2]

REED is a great long term multi year investment.

[DarkLady]

I personally think it was very fairly priced just below 8. The sales, revenues and profit do not equate to a price above 8. If it falls to below 6, then it is once again a buy based on the past and future possibilities. Just MHO.

[Andy68]

so, you think this is a solid $6+ dollar stock? Do you anticipate a nice Q-o-Q increase? and what is your opinion in how much of that is baked into the current price?

just curious,
Andy

[DarkLady]

yes, I sold near 8. Below 6 I may jump back in. I need to see solid sales, revenue and prpfit.

[Andy68]

I sold a few weeks ago, and now I might be looking to pick up a few. If REED dips to the low $6s, I'm jumping back in.

good luck to all,
Andy

[Trueheart]

Oh my God, the dreaded 666. What's next, the Mayan curse?

Trueheart

[Slojab]

Reed's, Inc. Announces New Distribution for Reed's Culture Club Kombucha Line Throughout New York Metro Market

Reed's, Inc. (NASDAQ: REED), maker of the top-selling sodas in natural food stores nationwide, announced today that Abraham Natural Foods Corp. will be distributing their new Reed's Culture Club Kombucha throughout the greater New York Metro market. Headquartered in Long Island City, NY, Abraham Natural is a fully integrated wholesale distributor with refrigerated distribution capabilities, delivering an extensive brand line up including, Amy's Natural brands, GT Synergy, Muscle Milk, Myoplex, Organic Valley Dairy products, Chobani Yogurt, Cabot Dairy products and 5 Hour Energy.

Neal Cohane, Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing for Reed's, Inc., commented, "Abraham Natural Foods provides Reed's unique access to Kombucha retailers across the New York market. Their refrigerated distribution capabilities allows our new Kombucha access to thousands of mainstream and specialty retailers that have been recognizing the growing demand for extremely healthy, live products, like our new Reed's Culture Club Kombucha."

About Abraham Natural Food Corp.

Abraham Natural Foods Corp. is a leading grocery wholesale distributor in New York area. Located in Long Island City, Abraham Natural offers unparalleled customer service, providing a comprehensive listing of products for all their clients to compete in the retail market. Abraham Natural Foods offers the highest quality certified organic products, as well as natural foods and specialty products. Their product listings are continuously updated, as they aim for clients to effectively compete in any market environment. Abraham Natural has established one of widest distribution networks and serve a wide variety of retail formats, including supermarkets, health food stores and extreme value stores in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. Their delivery schedules are individually tailored to match each of their customers' needs. Every product is delivered with the utmost care and is subject to enhanced technological inspection. They are committed to providing their clients with the highest level of customer service.

[Slojab]

I'd say you're right.

It needs to consolidate after the nice run it had.

[up_and_down16]

Doesn't look like this is going anywhere soon. It is butting heads against its 50 day MA and falling back. Breaking through will not be easy unless they announce some major agreements and show improved revenue.

What do you say?

Cheers all....