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Sallie Mae reports $1.6B quarterly loss
The student lender cited heavy borrowing costs, $575 million reserve to cover expected losses on student loans.
January 23 2008: 10:53 AM EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Embattled Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student lender, on Wednesday reported a fourth-quarter loss of $1.6 billion as it slumped under heavy borrowing costs and set aside $575 million to cover expected losses on student loans.
The quarterly loss at SLM Corp. (SLM), as the company is formally known, was equivalent to $3.98 a share, compared with a profit of $18 million, or 2 cents a share, in the fourth quarter of 2006.
The Reston, Va.-based company reported a loss on a "core" basis of $139 million, or 36 cents a share in the October-December period, compared with profit of $326 million, or 74 cents a share, a year earlier. Core earnings exclude treatment for student loans bundled together as securities and derivatives, the complex financial instruments used as a hedge against interest rate swings
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/news/companies/bc.apfn.earns.salliemae.ap/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
NovaStar moves to Pink Sheets
January 17, 2008 9:47 AM ET advertisement
The OTC Bulletin Board started listing NovaStar Financial Inc.'s stock Thursday morning. The company's stock now trades under the ticker symbol NOVS.
The stock's final day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange for the Kansas City-based subprime mortgage lender was Wednesday, when it closed at $1.94, down 9 cents, or 4 percent.
NovaStar stock took a steep dive Monday, after the company had said in a Friday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will eliminate about 170 jobs and give up its mortgage-origination and brokerage business licenses.
The company will have about 30 employees remaining after the cuts and said it will take a pretax charge of about $1.3 million to $1.8 million, mainly for severance costs, mostly in the first quarter.
The New York Stock Exchange said Friday that it would delist NovaStar's stock starting Thursday.
NovaStar's stock price and employee count plummeted in 2007 because of the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=ACBJ&date=20080117&id=8055686
NovaStar unit faces involuntary bankruptcy filing
Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:44pm EST
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - A unit of subprime mortgage lender NovaStar Financial Inc NOVS.PK was hit with an involuntary Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition accusing it of failing to pay a $48.9 million judgment, court records show.
American Interbanc Mortgage LLC of Irvine, California filed the petition against NovaStar Home Mortgage Inc on Wednesday in the U.S. bankruptcy court in Kansas City, Missouri, the city where NovaStar is based.
According to NovaStar's latest quarterly report, American Interbanc last June won a $46.1 million judgment against the home mortgage unit, following an Orange County, California jury trial in which it accused NovaStar of false advertising and unfair competition. Interest has subsequently accrued on the judgment.
In its report, NovaStar said the home mortgage unit could not afford the judgment, which was appealed, and that the parent "may be forced to consider bankruptcy" if American Interbanc sought to hold it responsible. NovaStar said it does not believe American Interbanc has a legal basis to hold it responsible for the judgment.
Robert Berry, a lawyer for American Interbanc, said on Wednesday that NovaStar Home Mortgage is "not paying its obligations, and doesn't appear likely to pay them." He said his client has not ruled out the possibility of trying to enforce the judgment against NovaStar Financial.
Lance Anderson, NovaStar's chief executive, did not immediately return a call seeking comment.
NovaStar in the last year halted subprime mortgage lending, quit its brokerage operations, and fired most of its staff. It once specialized in making home loans to customers with weak credit, but like dozens of rivals was battered by soaring delinquencies and defaults. NovaStar's business now consists mainly of managing a mortgage securities portfolio.
Shares of NovaStar closed Wednesday down 1 cent at $1.75 on the Pink Sheets. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Editing by Carol Bishopric)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2333643220080123?rpc=44
Sovereign 4Q Net Loss Widens
Wednesday January 23, 5:26 pm ET
By Deborah Yao, AP Business Writer
Sovereign Bancorp 4Q Net Loss Widens Amid Loan Defaults and Eroding Value of Thrift It Bought
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Sovereign Bancorp Inc. on Wednesday reported a 12-fold widening in its losses in the fourth quarter, as it recorded a massive write-down because customers defaulted on loans and the value of its investment in a New York thrift fell.
The Philadelphia-based parent of Sovereign Bank also said it was suspending its quarterly stock dividend until further notice, a move that will reserve $160 million in capital this year.
Sovereign lost $1.6 billion in the quarter, or $3.34 per share, compared with a loss of $129 million, or 28 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.
Results were hurt by a $1.58 billion write-down of goodwill -- what a company is worth beyond its assets.
About half the write-down came from a decline in business at Independence Community Bancorp in Brooklyn, which Sovereign purchased over some shareholder objections in June 2006. The goodwill write-down was higher than what Sovereign disclosed last week.
Sovereign also booked $180 million in pretax, noncash charges related to the decline in value of its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred shares. Another $27 million in charges came from loan defaults by two unspecified mortgage companies.
Sovereign increased its reserves for loan and lease losses -- a buffer against bad debt -- by $88 million to $738 million.
Excluding the charges, Sovereign posted operating earnings of $94 million, or 18 cents per share, in the quarter, compared with profit of $167 million, or 33 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting profit of 22 cents per share
"Our fourth-quarter results have been impacted significantly by disruption in the credit markets and continued weakness in the residential mortgage market," Joseph Campanelli, Sovereign's president and chief executive, said in a statement.
He added that Sovereign's decision to suspend its dividend was necessary: "Today's banking environment dictates proactive measures to strengthen capital and mitigate risk."
Sovereign has already stopped issuing auto loans in seven states -- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina and Utah -- as defaults mounted.
In the quarter, Sovereign's net interest income came to $466 million, down from $487 million a year ago. Noninterest income before security gains was $153 million, up from $149 million.
For the year, Sovereign posted a net loss of $1.3 billion, or $2.85 per share, after a profit of $137 million, or 30 cents per share, a year ago.
Shares of Sovereign lifted along with the general market, up $1.01, or 10 percent, to $11.13 on Wednesday amid heavy trading volume. They have traded in a 52-week range of $8.71 to $26.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080123/earns_sovereign_bancorp.html
Bond insurers surge on hopes for bailout
Counterparties meet regulators in New York; $15 bln plan reportedly proposed
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:32 p.m. EST Jan. 23, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of bond insurers surged on Wednesday, adding fuel to a major late-session rally in the U.S. stock market, on hopes that a bailout package orchestrated by regulators will rescue the ailing industry.
Big banks and brokers that are counterparties to bond insurers met with Eric Dinallo, New York's state insurance regulator, said David Neustadt, a spokesman for the agency. He declined to say what was discussed, but reiterated the regulator's goal of restoring stability and injecting more capital into the $2.3 trillion market.
During afternoon trading, the Financial Times reported that Dinallo pressed the banks to provide $5 billion in immediate capital to support the bond insurers and to ultimately commit up to $15 billion. Neutstadt declined to comment on the report.
Ambac Financial (ABK 13.70, +5.73, +71.9%) , one of the largest bond insurers, saw its stock leap 72% to close at $13.70. Shares of MBIA Inc. (MBI 16.61, +4.08, +32.6%) , a rival, jumped 33% to $16.61.
Smaller bond insurers also rallied strongly. Security Capital Assurance (SCA 3.79, +1.64, +76.3%) gained 76% to close at $3.79 and ACA Capital (ACAH 0.85, +0.25, +41.7%) advanced 42% to 85 cents.
At issue is an industry whose trials in recent weeks have significantly added to investor anxiety about the collapse of mortgage-related assets.
Bond insurers have been under intense pressure amid mounting concerns that mortgage-related losses will undermine their business models. Fitch Ratings cut New York-based Ambac's crucial AAA rating last week, and rival ratings agencies have warned they may have to do the same.
The stakes remain high because bond insurers are so intertwined with the rest of the financial markets. The companies guarantee billions of dollars of complex mortgage-related securities held by some of the world's largest investment banks and back more than $1 trillion of muni bonds.
In light of the widespread damage that might be inflicted by the collapse of a major bond insurer, regulators have begun working to avoid such an outcome.
Ambac "is in desperate need of $5 billion or more of capital or a guarantee from a very strong (backer) to preserve market confidence," said Egan-Jones Ratings, a rating agency that's paid by investors rather than issuers. "Some sophisticated investors claim that Ambac and MBIA must be saved or the write-downs and margin postings will be debilitating to most investment and commercial banks."
Some investors have also shown interest in the sector.
Wilbur Ross, highly successful as an investor in so-called distressed businesses, said on Tuesday that he wants to invest in some bond-insurance companies and could pick a candidate within the next week.
Also Tuesday, Ambac's interim chief executive, Michael Callen, said the company's considering strategic alternatives. He said the company is talking with "very credible" parties and "pools of capital."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bond-insurers-surge-hopes-bailout/story.aspx?guid=%7B3F39F792%2D86F3%2D4ED3%2DAEFA%2D2B1E68F55505%7D&dist=morenews_ts
Corporate bond defaults to rise
Economic slowing, credit crunch take two companies bankrupt this week
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:41 p.m. EST Jan. 23, 2008P
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - More companies are expected to default on their bonds this year as developed economies slow and credit conditions remain tight, pressures that pushed two North American companies into bankruptcy this week and that promise to keep roiling financial markets, analysts said.
"You'll see a lot more credit defaults over the next 24 months as economic conditions soften," said Sean Egan, managing director at ratings agency Egan-Jones Ratings.
In past years, aggressive private equity buyers and fairly lenient lending standards helped struggling corporations stay afloat, he said.
That's all changed. The U.S. economy looks increasingly likely to fall into a recession, Europe is cooling and both lenders and private equity buyers remain on the sidelines. On Wednesday, Cerberus Capital Management Chairman John Snow said banks needed to "purge" about $200 billion of loans they can't sell to investors before the hot pace of leveraged buyouts resumes, reported Bloomberg.
Highest bond defaults
Trailing 12-month default rates
Forest/building/homebuilders 2.52%
Aerospace/auto/capital goods/metal 1.25%
Leisure/media 0.79%
Health care/chemicals 0.77%
Financial institutions 0.59%
Consumer/service sector 0.54%
Data: Standard & Poor's
For individual companies, reduced consumer spending and manufacturing activity have been crimping sales, while a continued credit crunch makes it harder for companies to refinance high-priced loans, say analysts.
Standard & Poor's on Tuesday forecast the default rate on speculative-grade bonds, commonly known as junk bonds, will rise to 3.4% this year - a big move up from last year's rate of 0.97%, which was a 25-year low. Last year only 22 defaults were recorded globally, the lowest default count in 11 years, said the rating agency.
Changes in the credit markets, an increase in refunding needs and a higher risk of recession account for the worsened outlook for bond defaults, says Diane Vazza, head of fixed income research at Standard & Poor's. In fact, she views the Federal Reserve's surprise 75 basis-point cut, announced Tuesday, "as indicative of the accelerating risk of recession."
An increase in bond defaults is likely to keep up pressure on the equity markets, which have been shocked by repeated bad news about subprime mortage defaults, mortgage-backed securities losses, and more lately, mounting risks from bond insurers and credit default swaps.
When a big company defaults on its debt, that action generally triggers an event in credit default swaps - the contracts that give the buyer of the swap a form of insurance against the possibility a specific issuer will renege on its debt. But following the near failure of bond insurer ACA Capital Inc. (ACAH 0.85, +0.25, +41.7%) , market participants have increasingly worried that counterparties in credit default swap contracts won't pay up.
"There is great uncertainty about the impact of those [bond] defaults in a world of structured finance and credit-default swaps," said Joseph Mason, a professor of finance at Drexel University. "Where credit default swaps were issued for speculation, losses in the sector will magnify - rather than offset - losses from any given default," he said in emailed comments.
Fresh failures
Montreal-based printer Quebecor World Inc. (IQW 0.10, -0.03, -25.9%) (CA:IQW) and Eagan, Minn. restaurant-chain Buffet Holdings are the latest examples of what happens when a weaker economy combines with a tough market for getting new loans.
On Monday, Quebecor said it was filing for bankruptcy protection in Canada and the United States after failing to secure a $388 million (C$400 million) bail-out package and warning it was running out of cash. The 28,000-employee company, which produces printed materials like direct mail and magazines, has been struggling with slowing demand, higher energy costs and a strong Canadian dollar. Last month, a planned sale of some European operations fell through.
"This is an industry in secular decline, hurt by the online and electronic move in advertising," said Tom Ferguson, an analyst with high-yield research firm KDP Investment Advisors. "Margins are under pressure from all corners," he said.
Still, he said he was a "bit surprised" that Quebecor couldn't come up with new funding, particularly since just two years ago, bond investors flocked to buy new Quebecor debt.
Part-owner Quebecor Inc. (CA:QBRA: news, chart, profile) had tried to arrange rescue financing with a private equity firm but said some of Quebecor World's lenders had balked at the financing arrangement.
Quebecor's failure to come up with financing to forestall bankruptcy, "speaks volumes about the current status of the credit market," Ferguson said.
Tighter credit market conditions are curtailing the ability for companies to get new financing across a range of industries. Moody's Investors Service said Wednesday that the number of speculative-grade companies with weak liquidity ratings rose by 77% in the second half of 2007 compared to the first half.
This jump signals more companies are vulnerable to default, noted the ratings agency. Quebecor World, for instance, received a weak rating last June.
Meanwhile, a slowdown in consumer purchases is sapping profits at some retail companies. Buffet Holdings, Inc., the privately-held operator of restaurant chains including HomeTown Buffet and Tahoe Joe's Famous Steakhouse, filed for Chapter 11 in Delaware Tuesday.
Belt-tightening by consumers, who have seen gasoline prices top $3 a gallon and home prices fall, has translated to lower sales for restaurant chains. Last year, Specialty Restaurant Group and The Roadhouse Grill filed for U.S. bankruptcy.
Top among the reasons its operations went south, said Buffet Holdings Tuesday, was a "significant decline in discretionary spending among its core consumers."
An increase in corporate defaults is also likely to have a ripple effect on the large but obscure market for credit default swaps.
The Quebecor default, for instance, has triggered a credit event in credit default swaps, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp. This means that the holders of credit default swaps linked to Quebecor defaulting on its debt stand to get paid for those swaps, while the sellers of credit default swaps must pay up.
Laura Mandaro is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/more-companies-seen-reneging-bonds/story.aspx?guid=%7BE201A068%2DB88E%2D4BA3%2DB2BB%2D7037D92C7A51%7D&siteid=yhoof
Bond Insurance Crisis Looms On Wall Street
SINCLAIR STEWART, Globe and Mail Update
January 22, 2008 at 9:38 PM EST
NEW YORK — Ben Bernanke may have temporarily halted a crippling nosedive in global stock markets, but bankers aren't convinced the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprise rate cut Tuesday will address what is emerging as a growing threat to the economy: monoline bond insurers.
Monolines, the latest entry in Wall Street's expanding lexicon of doom, have always operated on the fringes of the financial system. Originally, they made money by guaranteeing bonds for municipalities: They would promise to pay the interest on these bonds if a town or city defaulted on the payments.
Beginning around 2000, however, many of these firms migrated into more complex products, and began insuring securities such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which pool various forms of debt, including subprime mortgages.
Of the $2.4-trillion (U.S.) worth of insurance coverage these companies provide, approximately $125-billion is tied to the faltering home market, according to industry estimates.
This latter piece of business, in particular, has created widespread fear among investors, some of whom believe the monolines could represent the next major land mine for credit markets.
The reasoning is this: Major banks, including Citigroup, UBS, Merrill Lynch and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, among others, have used these firms to hedge against their subprime exposure.
Already these banks have collectively absorbed more than $100-billion in writedowns related to CDOs, and the deteriorating health of monolines could compound that figure substantially. If that happens, the banks may further tighten their grip on capital and slow down lending to consumers.
The concern is that these monolines will be less likely to backstop their guarantees on potential subprime losses if their credit ratings are reduced.
“We don't think it will get us out of the mortgage mess,” Nigel Myer, a financial credit analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, said of the Fed's 0.75-percentage-point cut Tuesday. “It won't solve the monoline problem.”
The largest monolines, Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., did bounce back sharply in U.S. trading, gaining 29 and 47 per cent respectively. But some market watchers believe that was also due to other factors, including Ambac's acknowledgment that it was looking at “strategic alternatives.”
Ambac reported a $3.3-billion quarterly loss Tuesday, just a few days after Fitch Ratings downgraded its triple-A status. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Services have placed both Ambac and MBIA on credit watch with negative implications, while a smaller insurer, ACA Capital, has lost its A rating, and is now struggling to stay afloat after losing almost all of its market value. CIBC has already taken a $2-billion writeoff to cover its exposure to ACA, and Merrill Lynch took a $1.9-billion charge.
“This rate move should not be bad for credit, given that it will eventually ease any funding burden and hopefully support the growth outlook,” Société Générale credit strategist Suki Mann said in a note to clients. But he added that the markets “also need a plan for the monoline insurers, if only to restore some much needed confidence to the credit markets.”
The New York Department of Insurance took a step in that direction Tuesday, announcing it was drafting new rules that would “redefine the future activities” of monoline insurers. “It is clearly time to develop new rules for the road,” Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo said an e-mailed statement Wednesday. “The department is engaged with insurers, banks, financial advisers, credit-rating agencies, other regulators and government officials, and other stakeholders in examining and developing measures to help stabilize the market.”
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080122.wrmarketsmono0122/BNStory/Business/home
Capital One Financial 4Q down 42%
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Capital One Financial Corp, the largest independent U.S. bank card issuer, said on Wednesday that fourth-quarter earnings fell 42 percent on rising credit card losses and charges related to a shut-down of its subprime mortgage unit.
The McLean, Virginia, company also said its loan portfolio and revenue growth would slow to "low single digits" this year, reflecting a weaker environment.
Fourth-quarter net income fell to $226.6 million, or 60 cents a share, from $390.7 million, or $1.14 a share, in the year-earlier period. The results matched analyst forecasts, according to Reuters Estimates, and were in line with the company's profit warning on Jan. 10.
Excluding a 25 cents a share loss related to GreenPoint Mortgage, which was shut down, income from continuing operations fell to $321.6 million, or 85 cents, from $402.6 million, or $1.17, a year earlier.
Analyst Chris Brendler of Stifel Nicolaus said the results, and Capital One's more cautious outlook, will prompt him to reduce his estimates for 2008.
"They guided us to card losses higher than I was looking for. Seems the stresses I had modeled for were not enough. Things will continue to get worse," Brendler said.
Total managed loans held for investment rose 4.6 percent to $151.4 billion during the quarter, driven by U.S. car and auto lending. Total revenue, on a managed loans basis, rose 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter thanks to wider margins and seasonal loan growth in U.S. cards.
The quarterly provision for loan losses rose to $1.9 billion, covering $1.3 billion in write offs and an increase to reserves of $650 million.
"As the economy has weakened, we have selectively pulled back loan growth and maintained appropriately conservative underwriting standards," said Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank in a statement. (Reporting by Joseph A. Giannone; Editing by Andre Grenon)
That's it -- buyers have been defeated
Asian stocks swept up in global selloff as US recession fears mount UPDATE2
January 22, 2008: 01:39 AM EST
SINGAPORE, Jan. 22, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Asian stocks tumbled for a second straight session Tuesday, swept up in the global selloff sparked by worry that the US is headed for a recession that will dent export markets across the world.
With the US closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday, Asian markets took their cue from Europe and Latin America -- benchmarks in France, Germany and Brazil plunged about 7 percent overnight, their worst declines since just after the terror attacks of Sept 11, 2001.
'There is a growing fear out there that the slowdown in the US is now spreading to other parts of the world,' said Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Securities. 'Sentiment on the global economy and stock markets has suddenly become panicky.'
The Hang Seng plunged 8 percent to 21,904.
'That's it -- buyers have been defeated. They have finally run out of money and brokers are now making margin calls,' said Andrew Clarke, trader with SG Securities.
The S&P/ASX 200 was down 7.1 percent at 5,186.8 and the All Ordinaries lost 7.3 percent to 5,222, their worst performance since October 1997.
The Australian market has fallen for twelve straight sessions.
'It's hard to describe it as anything else but complete carnage,' said Justin Gallagher, head of sales trading at ABN Amro. (NYSE:ABN)
The Nikkei was last down 4.9 percent at 12,672, trading below 13,000 for the first time since October 2005.
The South Korean Kospi was down 4.5 percent at 1,608.56, the Shanghai Composite lost 5.5 percent to 4,644 and the Taiwanese Taiex was down 6.5 percent to 7,581.96.
The Philippines Composite was down 5.5 percent at 2,978 and the Singapore Straits Times lost 4.8 percent to 2,776.37, a level last seen in December 2006.
The Jakarta Composite fell 9.1 percent at 2,259.65.
'If, during the bull market last year, almost all stocks were worth buying, now everything is a 'sell',' said Cece Ridwanulloh, a fund manager at Ekokapital Sekuritas in Jakarta.
Global markets slumped Monday as investors concluded that the 145 billion-dollar stimulus package unveiled by President Bush on Monday comes too late to stop the world's biggest economy from sliding into recession.
Investors are increasingly nervous about the financial sector following massive writedowns by the big US investment banks in the fourth quarter.
'Unless the US government decides to inject public funds into resolving the subprime loan issue, fears about the credit crunch may not go away,' said Osamu Tamada, a Mizuho Investors Securities strategist.
US poised for losses
The US market is expected to fall hard when it resumes trade later today. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were last quoted down 516 points, while S&P futures were down 66 points, signalling heavy selling at the open.
Investors are not just nervous about the likelihood of a US recession. They are also worried that banks around the world are facing another round of writedowns on securities related to the US subprime sector.
On Monday, German state-owned bank WestLB said it expects a pretax loss of about 1 billion euros for 2007, mostly due to 1 billion euros in subprime-related writedowns.
Other German banks, including SachsenLB and Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, have had to make painful adjustments because of their exposure to the subprime meltdown.
Elsewhere in Europe, UBS (NYSE:UBS) , Barclays (NYSE:BCS) and Royal Bank of Scotland have also recorded billions of dollars in writedowns.
Speculation is growing that some of France's big banks are poised to announce writedowns.
Societe Generale shares tumbled Monday on talk that it has bigger exposure to the troubled sector than previously understood.
SocGen shares fell 8 percent, extending an 8.6 percent loss from Friday, while BNP Paribas (OOTC:BPRBF) lost 9.6 percent.
Even more ominous is the precarious outlook for the big US bond insurers after Fitch downgraded Ambac last week after it scrapped a plan to raise capital.
Analysts are expecting other ratings agencies to follow suit, a move which would mean the bonds guaranteed by Ambac will also be downgraded -- forcing the holders of those bonds to write down their value.
The seven Triple-A-rated bond insurers back about 2.4 trillion dollars of debt, 'so it's easy to see the scale of the problem we all face if this house of cards is allowed to collapse,' said analysts at Deutsche Bank. (NYSE:DB)
'The risks are so serious that one has to believe that negotiations to avoid it are currently going on behind closed doors,' they said in emailed comments.
Fear factor
'The market is being driven by fear right now and the current fear is of a major insolvency in the US,' said Andrew Pease, an investment strategist at Russell Investment Group in Sydney.
'It will be interesting how the US market opens up tonight but what's more important is how it finishes - a lot now depends on the Fed (US Federal Reserve) because that's the one organisation that can break the current catalyst for change.'
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Jan 30 with some market commentators expecting it to decide on a federal funds target rate cut of as much as 75 percentage points.
Pease said markets panic at times even though market fundamentals remain sound with forward price earnings multiples very low, even taking into account the possibility of a 20 percent downgrade in current estimates.
'Our advice to our investors is just to sit tight and focus on longer-term fundamentals and don't panic,' he said.
'We know that markets move through waves of fear and greed every now and then and right now there's as much fear as there's ever been.'
Asian stock markets have fallen hard in 2008 so far.
The Nikkei has lost 17.5 percent, extending the 11 percent decline suffered in 2007. The Indian Sensex is down 22 percent, the Philippines down 18 percent and the Kospi off 16 percent.
Even the Shanghai Composite, the market darling for the last two years, is down 12 percent so far.
Financials battered
Against this background, financial stocks slumped across Asia. Bank of China, which has the biggest subprime exposure among Chinese lenders, lost 8.6 percent to 3.08 Hong Kong dollars.
China's biggest bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (OOTC:IDCBF) fell 11.1 percent to 4.32 dollars.
HSBC Holdings shed 6.3 percent at 106.40 dollars.
Ping An Insurance Group extended its fall, down 11.8 percent to 60 dollars, as investors feared its plan to sell new shares and bonds worth about 160 billion yuan may dilute earnings.
In Australia, ANZ Bank lost 3.4 percent to 25.33 Australian dollars and Commonwealth Bank lost 3.3 percent to 49.13. National Australia Bank (OOTC:NABZY) fell 4.9 percent to 33.47.
In Tokyo, Mizuho Financial Group (NYSE:MFG) was down 5.4 percent at 439,000 yen, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial down 2.4 percent at 893, and Sumitomo Mitsui Finanical Group down 4.1 percent at 728,000. Japan's biggest stock broker Nomura Holdings (NYSE:NMR) was down 3.9 percent at 1,415.
Exporters were hurt by the strong yen. Sony (NYSE:SNE) declined 5.1 percent to 5,210, printer maker Canon shed 4.3 percent at 4,250, construction machinery maker Komatsu slipped 6.9 percent to 2,235 and Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) was down 290 yen or 5.5 percent at 4,970.
ciara.linnane@thomson.com
Ambac posts $3.3 bln loss
Reuters Tuesday January 22 2008
By Dan Wilchins
NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc on Tuesday reported a quarterly loss of $3.3 billion after recording massive credit derivative write-downs and setting aside more money for credit losses.
The $3.3 billion loss comes as the company faces serious questions about its future profitability. Ambac, the second-largest bond insurer in the world, lost a crucial top credit rating from Fitch for its main insurance unit on Friday. The company also scrapped plans to raise $1 billion of capital, citing market conditions.
More ratings cuts may be on the horizon for Ambac's main units. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's are also considering cutting Ambac Assurance Corp's top debt ratings.
The bond insurer's difficulties have come after Ambac used credit derivatives to guarantee a series of portfolios of asset-backed securities. Those securities were linked to subprime mortgages, and have weakened dramatically in the widening credit crisis.
Ambac said in its earnings statement on Tuesday that it hopes to regain its top rating from Fitch, and is looking at strategic alternatives from "a number of potential parties."
Ambac wrote down $5.2 billion of credit derivatives, and set aside $208.5 million for losses.
On a per-share basis, Ambac's fourth-quarter loss was $31.85.
In the year ago quarter it earned $202.7 million, or $1.88 a share. (Reporting by Dan Wilchins and Christian Plumb; editing by John Wallace and Dave Zimmerman)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7245836
Bank of America 4Q Profits Plunge
By IEVA M. AUGSTUMS,
AP
Posted: 2008-01-22 08:54:26
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Hurt by the deepening credit crisis, Bank of America Corp. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell 95 percent, and Wachovia Corp. reported its earnings tumbled 98 percent.
Net income at Bank of America, the nation's largest consumer bank, dropped to $268 million, or 5 cents per share, in the three months ended Dec. 31 from $5.26 billion, or $1.16 per share, a year ago.
The bank's revenue fell 31 percent to $12.67 billion from $18.49 billion last year.
The quarter included results from LaSalle Bank, which Bank of America purchased on Oct. 1.
Analysts expected earnings of 18 cents per share on revenue of $13.24 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Financial. The earnings estimates typically exclude one-time items.
Bank of America shares fell $1.57 to $34.40 in premarket trading.
Crosstown rival Wachovia said its fourth-quarter profit fell to $51 million, or 3 cents per share, from $2.3 billion, or $1.20 per share, during the same period a year earlier.
Excluding merger-related expenses, Wachovia earned $160 million, or 8 cents per share, during the fourth quarter.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast earnings of 33 cents per share for the quarter.
Wachovia, the nation's fourth-largest bank, took a $1.7 billion write-down during the quarter due to weakening credit markets. Banks have been forced to reduce the value of bonds and debt backed by mortgages and other consumer loans that have increasingly defaulted in recent months.
Because of rising delinquencies and defaults, Wachovia also set aside $1.5 billion to cover losses.
Wachovia shares dropped 85 cents to $29.95 in premarket trading.
The news was the latest in a series of earnings declines among the largest U.S. banks as the nation's housing crisis and a slowing economy have forced many consumers to fall behind on their bills.
Last week, New York's Citigroup Inc., the No. 1 U.S. bank by assets, reported a nearly $10 billion loss, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, saw its profit fall 34 percent to $2.97 billion, or 86 cents per share. San Francisco's Wells Fargo & Co., the nation's fifth largest bank, reported that net income dropped 38 percent to $2.18 billion, or 64 cents per share.
Bank of America's results included $5.44 billion of trading losses, compared with profits of $460 million a year earlier. This reflected a $5.28 billion write-down related to collateralized debt obligations, which the bank said reduced trading profit by $4.5 billion and other income by about $750 million.
CDOs are complex investments that combine slices of different kind of risk and are often backed in part by subprime mortgages - loans given to customers with poor credit history - as well as other loans. In November, Bank of America executives estimated pretax CDO write-downs of at least $3 billion.
During the quarter, the company's provision for credit losses doubled to $3.31 billion from $1.57 billion a year ago. In the bank's consumer unit, which includes the nation's biggest credit card business and retail branch network, revenue rose 7 percent, while earnings dropped 28 due to higher credit costs.
"We certainly are not pleased with our performance," Chief Executive Ken Lewis said in a statement. "We are cautiously optimistic about 2008, though we believe economic growth will be anemic at best in the first half."
For the full year, Bank of America reported earnings of $14.98 billion, or $3.30 per share, compared with $21.13 billion, or $4.59 cents per share, in 2006. Wachovia earned $6.31 billion, or $3.31 per share, a 19 percent decline from the $7.79 billion, or $4.72 per share, earned during 2006.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bank-of-america-4q-profits-plunge/n20080122085409990010
UBS, Citigroup, Merrill Seen Exposed Heavily To Bond Insurers
January 18, 2008: 02:09 PM EST
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) on Thursday opened the door a crack on how seriously banks may be exposed to the spiraling decline of companies that insure bonds and complex structured securities, such as collateralized debt obligations.
As part of $16.7 billion of write-downs it took in the fourth quarter, $3.1 billion represented losses (or reserves for expected losses) on insurance contracts Merrill purchased to hedge its highest-rated CDO holdings. It set aside $1.9 billion alone for contracts insured by ACA Capital Holdings' (ACAH) ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., the most troubled of the so-called monoline bond insurers. Merrill in essence said the ACA "credit enhancement" was worthless.
Using Merrill as a rough model, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney says the top 10 bank underwriters of collateralized debt obligations last year may have to write off $10.1 billion of the $12.7 billion of their bonds insured by ACA. And that estimate is based on her assumption that the insurance is worth 20 cents on the dollar - above the level of Merrill's reserve.
At the top of the list is UBS AG (UBS), which was the biggest underwriter of asset-backed CDOs in last year's third quarter when ACA was most active issuing CDO insurance. UBS will have to write down $1.4 billion of its ACA-backed hedges, Whitney estimates. It is followed by Citigroup Inc. (C) - the biggest CDO underwriter in last year's second quarter - with an estimated $1.398 billion of losses, and Merrill, according to Whitney.
Representatives for Merrill and Citigroup declined to comment, and UBS did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
ACA likely sold protection on about 7% of all asset-backed CDO insurance sold in 2007, Whitney estimated, and on 32% in the third quarter when UBS was most active.
CDOs are packages of bonds that generate interest from payments on mortgages and auto, credit-card and other consumer loans.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) in December questioned ACA's status as a "viable counterparty" after Standard & Poor's cut ACA Financial Guaranty's ratings to triple-C from A. CIBC said it will likely take a big charge for its ACA exposure in its first quarter that ends later this month.
What bothers investors, however, is that neither the bond insurers nor the banks that bought the so-called credit enhancement are giving details. And when banks do give details of their exposure to risky subprime mortgages and CDOs, they do so on a net basis that assumes they have effectively hedged assets that are often illiquid and notoriously difficult to value.
"There is literally no disclosure and therefore no way for us to know who ACA's actual counterparties are," Whitney said in a note to clients.
The problems aren't limited to ACA, which is partially owned by a unit of Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC), although its credit backing is lower than its competitors and it is the only monoline insurer that has to put up collateral for its own financing.
Shares of larger monoline insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) and MBIA Inc. (MBI) are tumbling as the triple-A credit ratings that are the backbone of their guarantees are in danger of downgrades. Ambac shares have fallen about 70% this week, and MBI's are down about 51%.
Radian Group (RDN), another large insurer, is off 34%. PMI Group (PMI), which has a big stake in bond insurer FGIC Corp., is off 30%. Shares of ACA have lost 97% of their value over the past 52 weeks, including a 16% drop since last Friday.
Ambac said earlier Friday that it has scrapped a plan announced Wednesday to raise $1 billion in capital, blaming soured market conditions. Investors sneered at the dilutive plan, which Ambac announced after Moody's Investors Service warned of a downgrade.
Moody's on Thursday placed ratings of MBIA and its insurance affiliates on review for possible downgrade. MBIA on Friday expressed "surprise" at Moody's action, saying that it continues to work toward stabilizing its capital strength.
Merrill's posse of bond guarantors, to be sure, includes some strong insurers - among them a unit of insurance monolith American International Group Inc. ( AIG). The company has bought credit enhancement from more than 15 insurers, according to a person close to Merrill, and it also has hedged some of its exposure by buying credit default swaps against the insurers.
But that is cold comfort to many analysts. Merrill was able to cut its exposure to CDOs from more than $40 billion six months ago to $4.8 billion at the end of December. But that represents "net" exposure, inclusive of hedges that may prove ineffective in part because they are based on bond insurance.
"Given ... that most of these hedges use financial guarantors (some of which are facing credit downgrades) as counterparties, we remain very uncomfortable with MER's CDO balance sheet exposure," Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Brad Hintz wrote in a note to clients Friday. Merrill's gross exposure to CDO assets is $ 30.4 billion, he said.
The immediate effect of a downgrade to a monoline insurer is that the value of the protection it sold also declines, and must be marked to fair value on banks' books. That's precisely the process that has led banks in recent weeks to take billions of dollars of write-downs and losses, as they revalue their moribund portfolios of subprime mortgages and related assets.
If the insurers fail, they would not technically be bankrupt, but instead go into "runoff," meaning that some buyers of their contracts might be made good on some of their exposure after much negotiation, said a banker familiar with the process.
While banks' exposure to bond insurers is only a small part of their broad credit problems, they can't be happy about the outlook for the insurers. "We believe management teams and the rating agencies have been underestimating how bad losses will be, so we expect that it will be necessary for the mortgage insurers to raise capital," Lehman Brothers mortgage analyst Bruce Harting told clients in a note Friday.
Indeed, Merrill Lynch is working with several other investment and commercial banks on a plan to help ACA forestall bankruptcy by giving it more time to unwind some of its $60 billion of insurance contracts, said a person familiar with negotiations.
Bond insurers got into the CDO market relatively recently. They were founded, and continue to do the bulk of their volume, insuring municipal bonds. This presents less of a direct credit risk to the banks, but it could expose them to lawsuits from clients who buy municipal bonds that were sold as guaranteed by the insurers.
That partly explains why New York state Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo has been seeking new infusions of capital for the bond insurance market. A unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB) conglomerate recently began insuring municipal bonds at Dinallo's request, according to a published report.
Merrill Chief Executive John Thain on Thursday let employees know just how concerned he is about the bond insurers. "We should all be helping and hoping that MBIA and the others get recapitalized," he told employees after the brokerage giant announced a $9.8 billion fourth-quarter loss. "ACA is the most difficult one."
Below is a list of the 10 banks with the biggest exposures to ACA, according to estimates from Oppenheimer's Whitney. They are based on her assumption that the carrying values of the insurance contract will be marked down to 20% of their value. However, she cautions that the bonds being insured have widely varying credit quality, ranging from zero value for CDO squared assets (CDOs issued on other CDOs) to 70 cents on the dollar for high-grade assets.
BANK EXPOSURE TO ACA (IN $ BILLIONS)
Potential Markdown
Bank Est. Exposure @80% Discount
UBS $1.76 $1.41
Citigroup $1.75 $1.39
Merrill Lynch $1.65 $1.33
Wachovia $0.854 $0.68
Morgan Stanley $0.736 $0.59
Lehman Brothers $0.734 $0.59
Bank of America $0.574 $0.46
Goldman Sachs $0.550 $0.44
Deutsche Bank $0.310 $0.25
Royal Bk Scotland $0.340 $0.27
Source: Oppenheimer, Dealogic
-By Jed Horowitz, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4047
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-18-08 1409ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200801181409DOWJONESDJONLINE000852_FORTUNE5.htm
Merrill reports $10 billion loss
Nation's largest brokerage also takes $14.6 billion in writedowns on subprime mortgages and hedges gone bad.
CNNMoney.com writer
January 17 2008: 8:26 AM EST
Merrill Lynch's woes continued Thursday as the company reported an operating loss of more than $10 billion dollars.
The firm also took a writedown of more than $11 billion on its mortgage-related securities.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. reported a quarterly operating loss of more than $10 billion Thursday that was much worse than expected, while it announced an $11.5 billion writedown related to the subprime crisis.
Merrill (MER, Fortune 500) shares lost more than 4 percent in pre-market trading on the news.
For the quarter, Merrill posted a loss from continuing operations of $10.3 billion, or $12.57 a share.
On a net basis, the company reported a loss of $9.91 billion, or $12.01 a share.
In the year-earlier period, Merrill reported a net profit of $2.3 billion, or $2.41 a share.
The results were far worse than anticipated. Merrill was expected to report a loss of $4.57 a share on revenue of $702.1 million, according to analysts polled by earnings tracker Thomson Financial.
Merrill, the nation's largest brokerage, also said it would writedown $11.5 billion on its collateralized debt obligations and subprime residential mortgages. The company also reported a $3.1 billion writedown on hedges with financial guarantors.
Prior to Merrill's announcement, there had been intense speculation that the company could write down as much as $15 billion during the quarter.
For the year, Merrill recorded an operating loss of $8.05 billion or $10.73 a share.
John Thain, the firm's recently-installed chairman and chief executive, called the annual results "unacceptable." But said he was encouraged that a number of the company's divisions delivered impressive results.
"As I look ahead to 2008, the firm is intensely focused on continuing this momentum and delivering growth and increased profitability for our shareholders and employees," Thain said in a prepared statement.
Thursday's results mark the first quarterly results since Thain arrived at the firm in December, after the departure of Stanley O'Neal, who stepped down amid the firm's $2.3 billion loss and $7.9 billion writedown in the third quarter.
Since Thain's arrival, he has taken a number of steps to shore up the company's capital.
Earlier this week, Merrill announced it had raised $6.6 billion in capital from outside investors, including the Kuwait Investment Authority, Mizuho Corporate Bank and and T. Rowe Price Associates.
The multi-billion dollar cash injection came on the heels of the $6.2 billion investment Merrill received last month from Singapore's Temasek Holdings and Davis Selected Advisors.
Merrill's results cap a particularly busy week for the financial services sector. Earlier this week, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) recorded a $9.8 billion loss and took an $18.1 billion writedown on its subprime positions. Both JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) fared markedly better even though profit fell by more than a third each.
Seattle-based Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500) is due to report its fourth-quarter results after the closing bell Thursday.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/news/companies/merrill_earnings/?postversion=2008011708
Can WaMu Go It Alone?
Wall Street is speculating that the bank will go the way of Countrywide Financial and be acquired by a larger player, perhaps JPMorgan Chase
January 17, 2008, 12:01AM EST
businessweek.com
by Christopher Palmeri and Mara Der Hovanesian
Washington Mutual's (WM) long-running TV ad campaign features a smiling, young banker poking fun at his stuffy, suit-wearing rivals. But despite the hip image, Washington Mutual is looking a lot more like other big players in financial services these days, posting huge loan losses, scrambling for fresh capital, and answering to investigators in several states.
The pressing issue for WaMu is whether it will remain independent. With Bank of America (BAC) scooping up troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial (CFC) for $4.1 billion, Wall Street speculation is now focused on WaMu, whose shares have fallen nearly as far as Countrywide, from 45 a year ago to 13 on Jan. 16. Last week, CNBC (GE) reported that WaMu had held "very preliminary" merger talks with JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Both firms declined to comment.
A buyout would be an astonishing reversal of fortune for WaMu's hard-charging chief, Kerry Killinger. After rising to the top job in 1990, Killinger built the small Seattle thrift into a $330 billion-in-assets juggernaut, with a string of more than 30 acquisitions, including Home Savings Mortgage in California and Dime Bancorp (DIMEZ) in New York. With those successes, Killinger became a guru for new management practices in banking. He overhauled the typical bank branch, adding coffee bars, play areas for kids, and tellers in khaki pants, while pitching customer-friendly products such as free checking accounts.
WaMu's Big Exposure in California and Florida
Killinger, who earned spare cash rehabbing homes while attending graduate school at the University of Iowa, also strived to be a top player in mortgages. He acquired subprime lender Long Beach Mortgage in 1999 and made many of the aggressive loans that have now come back to haunt the industry.
On Jan. 17, WaMu has indicated it will post loan loss reserves of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, four times the amount of a year prior. Nonperforming loans were 1.65% of WaMu's assets in last year's third quarter, twice the level in 2006. That compares with 0.88% of assets at Wells Fargo (WFC), 0.63% at Wachovia (WB), and 0.43% at Bank of America—all of which have focused less on home lending.
Some 70% of WaMu's loans are in California and Florida, two states with sinking property values and an abundance of risky loans. WaMu still has about $20 billion in subprime loans, $5.8 billion of which could reset at higher rates over the next three years.
Dealing with Legal Hassles
With the bank's finances weakening, Killinger moved into crisis mode. In December he announced a major restructuring of the mortgage operation, getting out of subprime loans entirely, closing half of WaMu's 336 loan centers, and laying off 2,600 people, about 22% of the mortgage staff. He slashed the dividend and raised $2.9 billion in a preferred stock offering.
The nation's second-largest mortgage lender in 2003, WaMu dropped to sixth place last year. "They've really just given up in terms of being a top lender," says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry newsletter.
With WaMu's default rates climbing, government investigators are taking a closer look. In November a lawsuit by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo accused WaMu of colluding with First American (FAF). The AG contends First American inflated the value of mortgage appraisals so WaMu could increase loan values. First American said the allegations in the complaint had "no foundation in fact or law." After the lawsuit, WaMu severed its relationship with the firm, saying it was "surprised and disappointed by the allegations in the complaint."
It's not WaMu's only legal headache. In January it was one of 20 lenders cited in a lawsuit by the city of Cleveland. The suit says lenders created a "public nuisance" by making loans to borrowers who couldn't afford them. Killinger has now focused his strategy on WaMu's 2,200 retail branches. WaMu is selling more credit cards, checking accounts, and services for small businesses. In short, if it survives, WaMu may look a lot more like those stodgy bankers in the suits.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2008/db20080116_577720.htm?campaign_id=relatedtest_BW
M&T Bank 4th-qtr profit sinks 70 pctReuters Monday January 14 2008
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - M&T Bank Corp, the first large U.S. bank to report fourth-quarter results, said on Monday that profit tumbled 70 percent, hurt by debt write-downs and turbulence in residential real estate markets.
Shares of M&T fell to their lowest level in more than five years.
The mid-Atlantic U.S. bank, which counts Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc among its largest investors, said net income fell to $64.9 million, or 60 cents per share, from $213.3 million, or $1.88, a year earlier.
Operating profit totaled $83.7 million, or 77 cents per share, the Buffalo, New York-based bank said. According to Reuters Estimates, profit excluding items was $1.50 per share, 35 cents below the average analyst forecast.
"Turmoil in the residential real estate market" hurt results, Chief Financial Officer Rene Jones said on a conference call. "It is difficult to predict the depth and breadth of the current credit cycle."
Shares of M&T fell $2.14, or 2.9 percent, to $71.61 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, and touched their lowest level since October 2002.
M&T Bank said it has $64.9 billion in assets and more than 650 branches in seven mid-Atlantic states and Washington, D.C.
It was one of the few large U.S. banks that had not cautioned investors in advance how credit and mortgage market turmoil would hurt fourth-quarter results. The bank's results may foreshadow those at rivals, most of which are expected to report lower earnings by the middle of next week.
M&T reduced profit by $78 million, or 71 cents per share, to write down collateralized debt obligations, which are complex securities composed of various forms of debt, including mortgages. Other banks have also tens of billions of dollars of CDO write-downs, and analysts expect more.
Results were also reduced by 27 cents per share for credit losses, as the amount set aside for credit losses more than tripled to $101 million.
They also reflected charges of 13 cents per share for M&T's exposure to antitrust litigation involving credit card network Visa Inc and American Express Co, and 8 cents per share for acquisitions.
Berkshire owned a roughly 6.3 percent stake in M&T Bank as of Sept 30, according to Thomson ShareWatch. Only Allied Irish Banks Plc and M&T Bank Chief Executive Robert Wilmers held larger stakes, Thomson ShareWatch said.
Lending income rose 1 percent to $470.2 million, though net interest margin fell to 3.45 percent from 3.73 percent a year earlier, and 3.65 percent in the third quarter.
Fee and other income fell 37 percent to $160.5 million, but would have risen 12 percent absent the CDO write-down. Expenses rose 16 percent to $445.5 million.
Through Friday, M&T shares had fallen 38 percent in the last year, compared with a 28 percent drop in the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index .BKX>.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7224192
Subprime lender to file for bankruptcy
First NLC Financial Services cites few buyers for its subprime loans.
CNNMoney.com January 14 2008: 11:55 AM EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Friedman Billings Ramsey Group's mortgage lending arm, First NLC Financial Services, will file for bankruptcy protection and plans to liquidate because demand among investors for home loans has vanished, the investment bank said Monday.
First NLC Financial Services, which FBR bought in February 2005 for $100.8 million, plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. FBR's plan to sell the business to Sun Capital Partners has fallen through, and the company said it does not expect to recoup its remaining $12 million investment in the unit's recapitalization for that sale.
Licensed to issue home loans in 45 states, FNLC lent $7.4 billion in 2006 and at the end of that year constituted 8 percent of FBR's $13.4 billion in assets.
FNLC lost $18 million in 2006, and FBR recorded $80.3 million in charges in the first three quarters of 2007 to shrink the unit's work force and adjust the value of the lender's portfolio.
FNLC's business model was to issue "subprime" mortgages, or home loans to people with spotty credit histories, and sell the loans to banks and institutional investors. As banks reassessed their stomachs for risk last year, demand for subprime home loans drained from the market and lenders like FNLC could not sell their loans.
With dozens of cash-starved lenders dumping their loans into markets with few buyers, the market value of mortgage debt plummeted and more than 50 lenders went bankrupt in 2007.
Paul Steven Singerman of the law firm Berger Singerman is the lead bankruptcy lawyer for FNLC. Peter Partee of Hunton & Williams will be FBR's (FBR) lawyer for the proceedings.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/14/news/companies/bc.apfn.fbr.mortgages.ap/?postversion=2008011411
Investors brace for bad bank earnings
Wall Street is anticipating a deluge of disappointing quarterly reports from the financial sector as credit crisis rolls on.
By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writer
January 9 2008: 5:19 AM EST
Big trouble ahead for banks
Earnings estimates for some of the nation's biggest banks look pretty dreadful compared to a year ago.
This Quarter Year Ago
Citigroup (-0.88) 1.03
Washington Mutual (-1.20) 1.10
Merrill Lynch (-4.57) 2.41
Bank of America 0.21 1.19
Wachovia 0.32 1.19
Wells Fargo 0.42 0.64
JPMorgan Chase 0.96 1.09
Source:Thomson Financial as of 1/8/2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sometimes when it rains, it pours on Wall Street. And next week, forecasters are calling for a flood.
Beginning next Monday, Wall Street will most likely find itself drowning in a torrent of dreary earnings news from some of the nation's biggest banks, marking yet another grim milestone for the troubled financial sector.
"It's not going to be a pretty sight," said Frank Barkocy, director of research at the investment advisory firm Mendon Capital Advisors in New York, which owns shares of a number of large banks including Bank of America and Washington Mutual.
Of the five banks and brokers scheduled to report results next week, three are expected to post a fourth-quarter loss - Merrill Lynch (MER), Citigroup (C) and Washington Mutual (WM). JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings.
Since the summer, the nation's biggest banks have found themselves hamstrung by a host of problems, including tough conditions in the credit markets and ongoing woes in the housing sector as home prices fell and foreclosures rose.
The worst news is expected from Citigroup and Merrill. The two companies, which have both hired new CEOs and acquired capital infusions from foreign state-run investment funds in the past two months, are expected to take a combined $19 billion in writedowns, according to Wall Street estimates.
Some experts anticipate the amount will exceed that since their newly installed chief executives may look to take bigger mark downs on their toxic mortgage securities now in order to avoid even more charges throughout 2008.
"Banks like Citi and Merrill may be as conservative as they can," said David Easthope, senior analyst at independent research and consulting firm Celent LLC. "What investors hate is quarter after quarter of writeoffs."
Other banks have taken a preemptive approach, giving advance warning of dismal results. Last month, Washington Mutual, the nation's largest thrift, said it would report a loss in the fourth quarter, while also announcing it would slash its dividend and lay off more than 3,000 workers in an effort to shore up its capital.
Bank of America (BAC), which is scheduled to report its results during the week of January 21, also gave Wall Street plenty of warning that its results would not be good.
Speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference in New York last month, Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis said its quarterly earnings would be "disappointing", adding that he expected the company to take more than the originally estimated $3 billion in writedowns.
BofA's crosstown rival Wachovia (WB) -- both are headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. -- is expected to report a steep drop in fourth-quarter earnings during the week of January 24 as well.
Two banks that could buck the broader trend are JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), both of which report results next week.
While both firms are expected to post a decline in profits, their earnings shouldn't fall as much as their rivals. And executives at both firms have publicly stressed the health of their company's respective loan portfolios.
Granted, much of next week's focus will be on the size of the writedowns all the big banks take. But Wall Street analysts will also be watching several other key areas including the health of these companies' different businesses and the credit quality in their portfolios.
One area of concern among analysts covering mortgage-focused banks like Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo is how these companies' commercial real estate portfolios are holding up, an area that some suspect could be the next trouble spot in the credit markets.
"If it does happen, that's another whole leg down for these banks," said Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., regarding the possibility of a commercial real estate slump.
Also in focus will be the bank's net interest margins - a key metric that measures the profits banks make from taking in deposits and lending them back out.
Recent cuts in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve would normally bode well for net interest margins because rate cuts usually allow the banks to offer lower yields on CDs and money markets. But competition for customers has been so tough that the banks have been unable to cut their deposit rates as much as they would have in the past.
Analysts think some banks may also view next week as an opportunity to announce major restructuring moves.
A number of reports have surfaced recently suggesting that Citigroup could cut as much as 10 percent of its workforce or reduce its dividend, which yields an attractive 7.6 percent.
And there has been speculation that both Citi and Merrill could sell some assets in order to raise additional capital. Merrill has already sold its consumer finance unit to General Electric Co. while reports have surfaced that Citi could shed its stakes in Student Loan Corp. or the Brazilian credit-card company Redecard SA.
Although it is certain that the results for the fourth quarter will be bleak, it doesn't look like the worst is over just yet. Banks will have to at endure at least another two quarters of pain before they start to see any relief, said Mendon Capital Advisors' Barkocy.
"Many [banks] are looking to the second half of the year to be significantly better than the first," he said.
But for bank stock investors, the second half of 2008 is an eternity away.
More bank dividend cuts on the way
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/08/news/companies/bank_earnings/index.htm?postversion=2008010905
BofA's awesome Countrywide tax break
Brace yourselves, taxpayers of America. You're going to help Bank of America finance its $4 billion buyout of Countrywide.
By Allan Sloan, senior editor at large
FORTUNE 500
Current Issue
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Guess who's helping Bank of America pay for its $4.1 billion purchase of Countrywide Financial? Answer: The taxpayers of the United States.
That's because Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), which is solidly profitable, will be able to use some of Countrywide's losses to offset its own taxable income. The tax break could total about half a billion dollars over the first five years, according to an estimate by tax guru Robert Willens, who left Lehman Brothers Friday after a 20-year run and will be in business as Robert Willens LLC starting next week. The losses could be worth considerably more to Bank of America starting in the sixth year, depending on how big Countrywide's losses are when Bank of America formally acquires it.
At this point, of course, no one knows how much in losses Countrywide has run up since the junk mortgage market began souring and defaults accelerated. Countrywide (CFC, Fortune 500) itself probably doesn't know. But it seems almost certain to ultimately be in the billions.
In tax circles, Bank of America is famous for its 1988 purchase of the failed FirstRepublic Bank of Dallas, which was being auctioned off by federal regulators. Bank of America, then known as NCNB Corp., the parent of North Carolina National Bank, discovered a way to structure the deal to save $1 billion of taxes, using a convoluted strategy that none of the other bidders knew about. That allowed NCNB to outbid its rivals for the bank, and still come out way ahead.
The Countrywide tax break isn't in that league, but it would still be worth a lot of money. Willens estimates that Bank of America will be able to deduct $270 million of Countrywide's losses annually for the first five years it owns the firm.
That's based on a $6 billion purchase price - $4 billion to Countrywide's common stockholders, plus the $2 billion of preferred stock that Countrywide sold to Bank of America in August. Willens says that you multiply that $6 billion by 4.49 percent - the so-called "long-term tax-exempt rate" - to calculate how much of Countrywide's losses Bank of America can deduct annually for five years after the purchase.
A $270 million annual deduction would save Bank of America something more than $100 million a year in federal and state income taxes. The long-term tax-exempt rate, which is based on Treasury rates and other things so complicated that they make my teeth hurt. The rate changes each year, Willens says, but not by much. When I asked how it's calculated, Willens, a master of tax arcana, threw up his hands. (Metaphorically, of course.) "It's like the formula for Coca-Cola," he said, "no one outside the circle knows it" and it's so complicated that, "no one else wants to find out."
So over the first five years, Bank of America can use a total of $1.35 billion of Countrywide's losses to shelter its income. (That's five years of $270 million annual losses.) If Countrywide's embedded losses when Bank of America buys it exceed $1.35 billion, Willens says, the bank will be able to deduct the rest of the losses, without limit, starting in the sixth year.
Isn't life fun?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/news/companies/sloan_countrywide.fortune/index.htm
Capital One slashes profit outlook
Credit card issuer says it won't meet its 2007 forecast because of a rise in loan delinquencies and weakening economy.
CNNMoney.com January 10 2008: 9:29 AM EST
McLEAN, Va. (AP) -- Capital One Financial Corp. said Thursday that its 2007 earnings will fall short of its previous expectations because of increased loan delinquencies and additional legal reserves in the fourth quarter.
The news from the McLean, Va.-based credit card company is the latest sign of turmoil in the nation's credit markets, and confirmed fears by some analysts that the collapse of the subprime mortgage market has hurt other credit classes.
It also renewed jitters that slowing economic growth may hurt upcoming corporate earnings reports more than previously thought.
It also drove Capital One (COF, Fortune 500) shares down almost 8 percent in premarket trading, where they fell $3.45 to $39.90, which would be below their previous 52-week low of $41.23.
Capital One, a credit card issuer that continues to expand into retail banking, issued a statement just after midnight saying it expects to report fourth-quarter profit of 60 cents per share and full-year earnings of about $3.97 per share, below its prior forecast of "about $5 per share."
The company said it is taking a $1.9 billion provision for loan losses in the fourth quarter, including about $1.3 billion in charge-offs. It is also adding about $650 million to its charge-off allowance because of recent delinquencies in its consumer lending businesses and "continued deterioration" of approximately $700 million of home equity lines of credit originated by its GreenPoint Mortgage unit, which shut down in August.
The company said it now expects charge-offs of about $5.9 billion in 2008 amid expectations that the U.S. economy will be weaker. That's up from the $4.9 billion to $5.5 billion Capital One predicted in November.
The warning comes on the heels of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s (CFC, Fortune 500) disclosure Wednesday that the percentage of borrowers who missed payments on home loans last month rose. The nation's biggest mortgage lender said some 6.96 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent last month, up from 5.02 percent in December 2006.
In its announcement Thursday, Capital One said it had initiated a $60 million legal reserve for possible damages in pending litigation involving the Visa credit card network, of which Capital One is a member. The company previously said it was taking a fourth-quarter pre-tax charge of about $80 million for liabilities in connection with the antitrust settlement that Visa reached in November in American Express Co. (AXP, Fortune 500)
Capital One is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results Jan. 23
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/10/news/companies/capital_one.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008011009
Merrill may write down $15 billion
Broker expected to take staggering loss on bad mortgage bets when it posts results next week, paper reports.
CNNMoney.com January 11 2008: 8:36 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Merrill Lynch is expected to report a bigger-than-expected $15 billion writedown when it reports quarterly results next week, according to a report in The New York Times.
The hit is bigger than the $12 billion writedown many Wall Street analysts are expecting, the report said.
Merrill is expected to post a steep fourth-quarter loss when it posts results next Thursday, due largely to bad bets made on mortgage investments.
As a result of the deep loss, the nation's largest broker is looking to raise additional capital from an outside investor, the newspaper said, citing people who had been briefed on the matter.
Sources told the Times that the company was in talks with overseas investors in Asia and the Middle East as well as American private equity firms in an effort to raise $4 billion.
This would not be the first time Merrill looked to outside investors for help. In December the company announced it had received at least $4.4 billion from Singapore's state-run Temasek Holdings.
Merrill Lynch (MER) shares finished 3 percent higher in Thursday trade on the New York Stock Exchange
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/news/companies/merrill_writedown/index.htm
Bank of America's Countrywide trap
The financial behemoth's $2 billion investment in the mortgage lender is disappearing fast. Too bad its options are limited.
January 10 2008: 7:43 AM EST (hours before the BOA deal)
By Roddy Boyd, writer
Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis isn't looking so smart for investing $2 billion into Countrywide last year.
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NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Late last summer, Bank of America and its deal-hungry chief Kenneth Lewis won kudos for a $2 billion investment in Countrywide Financial, the once high-flying mortgage lender hit hard by the housing slump.
In one stroke, Lewis erased his reputation as a serial over-payer with the kind of convertible preferred stock deal that arbitrage traders dream of. In exchange for its $2 billion, Bank of America secured the right to buy Countrywide (CFC, Fortune 500) stock at $18, a tidy 21 percent discount over the price at the time. Lewis, it seemed, had deftly locked in an instant $424 million profit for the bank.
Nobody's congratulating Bank of America these days. As Countrywide shares tank and speculation mounts that the company will be forced into bankruptcy, the bank's stake has plunged in value, to about $560 million. Now Bank of America faces a tough choice: It can buy Countrywide outright, pour even more money into the lender, or simply bide its time and hope for the best.
Whatever it does, Bank of America no longer appears so savvy. And Lewis, who's been criticized for paying top dollar for, among other companies, credit-card lender MBNA ($35 billion) and U.S. Trust ($3.3 billion), is once again looking like a spendthrift.
Bank of America and Countrywide declined comment.
Their deal looked so simple when it was announced in August. In return for its cash, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) got a 7.25 percent yield on convertible preferred stock and the right to buy 111 million Countrywide shares, equal to a 16 percent stake. The bank also got the right of first refusal on any future Countrywide deals and stood in front of the creditors' line should the lender go bankrupt.
Lewis and Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, known for his perpetual tan and wide grin, somberly proclaimed the importance of the investment in stabilizing the then-turbulent mortgage secondary markets. The markets seemed to agree.
The celebration didn't last long. The mortgage market has continued to tumble along with Countrywide's stock. Meanwhile, the company faces a barrage of federal and state investigations of its lending and accounting practices. As Countrywide's troubles have mounted, so has speculation that it would file for bankruptcy.
On Tuesday, for the second time in five months, Countrywide was forced to take the unusual move of issuing a press release denying that it was planning to seek protection from its creditors. On Wednesday, the Calabasas, Calif.-based lender released what it claimed was further proof of its stability: The amount of mortgages funded had risen above expectations, which is ordinarily good news.
Investors, however, weren't buying it, and for good reason. Buried deep in Countrywide's release were some troubling numbers: Foreclosures had doubled to 1.4 percent of unpaid principal at its key servicing unit. Late payments also skyrocketed, to 7.2 percent of unpaid balances, up from 4.6 percent. Countrywide shares have plunged 11 percent since this week's damage control began.
Now Bank of America faces a quandary: The value of its investment is falling fast, but any move - whether to buy Countrywide, invest more money, or sit tight - carries a host of potential liabilities.
If it buys Countrywide, Bank of America gets a nationally known franchise and potentially millions of clients for its suite of higher-margin consumer banking offerings, to say nothing of becoming America's most important home lender and the further economies of scale that brings.
On the downside, Bank of America would also get a lender whose credit quality is deteriorating rapidly - and who has sworn off high-margin subprime lending, essentially eliminating what was once its most attractive business. Countrywide is now banking on razor-thin margin conforming loans.
There is also the matter of Bank of America's appetite for Countrywide's portfolio. Ten percent of the lender's portfolio is invested in subprime mortgage securities, including billions worth of securitized and "raw" home equity loans (known as "HELOCS" on Wall Street) and adjustable rate mortgage securities, or ARMS, whose interest rates might prove very troubling to struggling homeowners.
This risky mix may be too much for credit-sensitive Bank of America to stomach. It could try to shed billions of dollars worth of these securities, but finding buyers would be difficult: There's zero appetite for these investments among potential buyers, who would accept nothing short of fire-sale prices. Brokers like Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), meanwhile, have their own, well-documented balance sheet problems.
Option B - dumping more money into Countrywide - is unlikely too, at least in the short run. Upping its investment means believing that Countrywide's operating environment is stabilizing or even may slightly improve. To do that, however, Bank of America has to overlook Wednesday's disclosure about rising foreclosure and late payment rates. That won't be easy.
This leaves the third option, the one that Bank of America is most likely to pursue: Keeping its fingers-crossed. Still, it can't be easy for Bank of America's shareholders to watch more than billion dollars evaporate on what was clearly no more than a timing trade on the mortgage market.
They've already watched Bank of America shares fall 25 percent since October, as concerns grow over the health of the U.S. banking sector.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/09/news/companies/bofa_countrywide.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008011007
Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo tells investors that the mortgage lender isn't headed for bankruptcy.
Play video
Home builders predict values to drop again in 2008.
Play video
Wall Street economists say that a slowdown is all but certain.
Play video
Bofa in Talks to Buy Countrywide
By Damian Paletta, Valerie Bauerlein and James R. Hagerty
Word Count: 418 | Companies Featured in This Article:
Bank of America, Countrywide Financial
Bank of America Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire struggling Countrywide Financial Corp., according to people familiar with the situation.
It isn't clear how quickly a deal might be struck, but two people familiar with the matter said it could occur very soon. It also is possible that an agreement could be delayed or fall apart altogether.
The market value of Countrywide has plunged to about $3 billion, which represents about two months' profit for Bank of America. The Charlotte, N.C., bank paid ...
Countrywide discloses rising delinquencies and foreclosures.
Its stock falls to $5.12 as investors continue to flee.
By E. Scott Reckard, Victoria Kim and Tom Petruno, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
January 10, 2008
Countrywide Financial Corp.'s future was called into question again Wednesday after it reported another rise in loan delinquencies and foreclosures, fueling fresh speculation that the company was headed toward bankruptcy.
The nation's biggest mortgage lender was "withering" and "might falter if it does not receive an infusion of at least $4 billion within the next couple of weeks," said Egan-Jones Ratings Co., an advisor to pension funds and other big investors.
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- Complete coverage on the Countrywide crunch
Weiss Research, which rates the condition of lenders, said the Calabasas company "is on a collision course with bankruptcy," adding that it "exhausted many of its extraordinary financing options last year and is ill-prepared for the rising mortgage defaults and home foreclosures that are widely expected this year."
Countrywide did not respond to a request for comment. As bankruptcy rumors swept the financial markets Tuesday, it issued a general denial that it was near collapse.
Yet the stock fell as low as $4.43 on Wednesday, before rebounding to close down 35 cents at $5.12, an 11-year low. The shares had lost 28% on Tuesday.
Weiss said Countrywide borrowers had little to fear if the company should fail, noting that its loan servicing business was valuable and would continue on even in bankruptcy. But it said anyone negotiating a new loan should be cautious because "that process could easily be disrupted."
Speculation about Countrywide's future echoes concerns first raised last summer, when funding dried up from the Wall Street firms that had provided money for the company to make loans. Those same firms also had been big buyers of Countrywide's mortgages as fodder for debt securities sold to investors.
Countrywide squeaked through that crisis by drawing down a huge emergency bank credit line, getting a $2-billion investment from Bank of America Corp. and accelerating a plan to beef up deposits at its Countrywide Bank subsidiary, enabling it to fund all its own loans.
That tactic has generated results. The bank's retail deposits increased $7.7 billion in the fourth quarter to $33 billion. But it has been achieved at high cost.
Countrywide is offering a 5.45% annualized yield on three-month, $10,000 certificates of deposit, the highest in the U.S. and far above the national average yield of 3%, according to Informa Research Services.
On Wednesday, some customers at Countrywide Bank's Glendale branch said they were concerned and closely following the news, trying to determine whether the favorable terms offered were worth the risk.
Fred Campi of Silver Lake decided it wasn't. He was at the bank to withdraw four certificates of deposit, cashing out a total of $60,000.
Countrywide's individual accounts are federally insured for up to $100,000. But Campi, an administrative aide at Los Angeles City College, said he didn't want to risk losing access to his funds, even temporarily.
"I don't know if it's worth the crapshoot," Campi said. "If six months from now they're back on their feet, I'll be back."
Another customer, retired lawyer Rico Fabian, said he was sticking by the lender for now. But he asked the bank's associates detailed questions about whether his money would be safe as he made a deposit.
"I'm watching the news carefully. If I find a better investment option, I'll move my money, but they're offering good fixed annuities," the 75-year-old Los Angeles man said.
Pierre Habis, head of retail deposits at Countrywide Bank, said it had continued to attract new deposits this week despite the latest bankruptcy rumors.
The cash inflows have so greatly exceeded expectations, he said, that the bank planned to begin trimming its CD rates in the next week.
If Countrywide lowers CD rates, that could help damp concerns that the company is facing a funding crisis.
Countrywide's stock slump on Wednesday, meanwhile, appeared to be triggered by the release of its December lending summary.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-countrywide10jan10,1,919989.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true
Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital
January 10, 2008
By David Enrich, Randall Smith and Damian Paletta
Two of the biggest names on Wall Street are going hat in hand, again, to foreign investors.
Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., two companies that just named new chief executives after being burned by the troubles in the U.S. housing market, recently raised billions of dollars from outside investors. Now, they are in discussions to get additional infusions of capital from investors, primarily foreign governments.
Merrill is expected to get $3 billion to $4 billion, much of it from a Middle Eastern government investment fund. Citi could get as much as $10 billion, likely all from foreign governments.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119993470776680093.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Freddie Mac's Strength Rating May Be Cut by Moody's (Update9)
By James Tyson and Patricia Kuo
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, the U.S. mortgage-finance company that reported its biggest loss in the third quarter, may be downgraded by Moody's Investors Service because damage from loan defaults could be worse than the ratings company expected.
Moody's said it may lower Freddie Mac's financial strength rating from A-, the second-highest grade, suggesting the government-chartered company may need to raise additional capital. McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac's Aaa senior long-term debt rating and Prime-1 rating for its commercial paper or short-term IOUs won't be cut, Moody's said.
Freddie Mac declined 59 percent in the past 12 months on the New York Stock Exchange and dropped another 3.2 percent today. Rising mortgage defaults forced Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron to shore up Freddie Mac's finances by selling $6 billion of preferred stock in November, slicing the dividend by 50 percent and reducing mortgage assets by 4 percent to $701.4 billion in the three months ended Nov. 30.
Freddie Mac ``may experience higher credit losses than Moody's previous expectations,'' Moody's analysts led by Brian L. Harris in New York said in the report late yesterday. ``In its review, Moody's will focus on Freddie Mac's asset quality and the potential that the company may experience an elevated level of credit charges over the near to medium term.''
The New York-based rating company's financial strength rating measures the likelihood a company will need assistance from a third party, such as the government or shareholders.
``We remain very financially strong and our rating is quite strong compared to other financial services firms,'' Freddie Mac spokesman Michael Cosgrove said.
`Credit Stress'
Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for U.S. home loans behind Fannie Mae, declined 88 cents to $26.26 at 11:12 a.m. in New York. Fannie Mae, which fell 33 percent last year, dropped 54 cents to $32.17. Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith declined to comment about losses at the Washington-based company.
The outlook for credit impairments at the companies ``is worse than either had acknowledged and I think that it will continue to get worse,'' said Joshua Rosner, managing director of New York-based research firm Graham Fisher & Co.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee two in five U.S. home loans, are suffering as the worst U.S. housing slump in 27 years increases defaults. More than 100 mortgage lenders were shut, scaled back or sold last year as foreclosures rose to the highest on record.
``People may regard the financial strength rating as a signal as to whether the agency is becoming more or less positive on a particular institution, and that may feed through to the debt rating,'' said Simon Adamson, a financial services analyst at CreditSights Inc. in London.
Capital Erosion
U.S. home prices may fall 12 percent from their peak through 2010 in ``the toughest housing correction in our lifetimes,'' Fannie Mae Chief Executive Officer Daniel Mudd said this week.
``Credit stress is most likely to occur in the company's guarantee portfolio,'' Moody's said.
Credit-default swaps on Freddie Mac, which traded for as little as 10 basis points in July and peaked at 68 in November, increased 5 basis points to 51, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York. A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise in the contracts indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality.
`Several Options'
Congress created Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to increase mortgage financing by buying loans from lenders. The companies profit by holding mortgages and mortgage bonds as investments and by charging a fee to guarantee and package loans as securities.
Freddie Mac in November reported a $2.02 billion third- quarter net loss, its biggest quarterly slump ever, and said in December it expects similar results for the fourth quarter as default rates on its mortgages climb to the highest since 1991.
The third-quarter loss reduced capital to about $600 million above its regulatory minimum. The company increased debt last month by $30 billion or 4 percent, the most in more than three years, to $774.5 billion outstanding.
The company ``continues to have several options to manage its capital adequacy including raising additional capital, further reducing the dividend, or managing the size of its portfolio,'' Moody's said.
Freddie Mac said yesterday it plans to raise $4 billion of debt this week by selling $3 billion of three-year notes and reopening its existing 4.125 percent securities due June 11, 2009.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/01/09/ap4512888.html
MBIA unveils plans to protect ratings
January 09, 2008: 03:22 PM EST
Jan. 9, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --
NEW YORK (AP) - MBIA Inc. plans to book more than $4 billion in losses, slash its dividend and sell $1 billion in bonds as part of a strategy unveiled Wednesday to shelter the bond insurer's crucial financial strength rating.
But analysts said investors doubted all of the bad news was out, and the shares fell sharply.
The Armonk, N.Y.-based insurer, under pressure from the ratings agencies to prove it has enough cash to pay potential insurance claims, will cut its quarterly dividend to 13 cents from 34 cents, saving an estimated $80 million a year. MBIA writes insurance policies that promise to reimburse bondholders when borrowers default.
The company will also sell $1 billion in bonds, and buy reinsurance to free up $50 million to $150 million of the company's cash.
Combined with a $1 billion investment from Warburg Pincus, MBIA said it believes these moves will mollify the major ratings agencies, allowing the company to maintain its 'AAA' financial strength ratings.
MBIA expects to reserve $737 million to pay claims for the fourth quarter, mainly because of anticipated losses on insured bonds backed by home equity lines of credit.
The company also said the market value of its portfolio of 'credit derivatives' -- or contracts protecting debt -- plunged $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
The dent in MBIA's credit derivatives portfolio is much higher than expected, Banc of America Securities analyst Tamara K. Kravec wrote in a client note. MBIA said the $3.3 billion in losses are only on paper; the company expects something like $200 million in actual losses on the portfolio.
Fitch Ratings, which on Dec. 20 gave MBIA six weeks to raise $1 billion or face a downgrade, said the planned $1 billion bond sale will be enough to protect the company's 'AAA' rating. The bonds are subordinated to all the company's other debt -- meaning if it becomes insolvent the bonds would not be repaid until the company paid off all other debt and claims.
Top-caliber ratings from the ratings agencies, which judge how likely MBIA is to cover all its insurance claims, are critical for a bond insurer. A downgrade from any of the major agencies would make it difficult for the company to win new business.
William Blair & Co. analyst Mark Lane said that while MBIA appears likely to sidestep a downgrade for now, people are still worried about what could be around the next bend.
'There's really no bottom in sight,' he said. 'People are thinking, 'Is another round going to happen in the next six to nine months?' The answer to that is, 'Who knows?''
Bond insurance has been one of the hardest-hit industries during the subprime mortgage crisis. Shares of MBIA, Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:AKT) (NYSE:AKF) (NYSE:ABK) , Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (NYSE:SCA) and ACA Capital Holdings Inc. (OOTC:ACAH) have all lost at least 75 percent of their value in the past year.
Seeking to capitalize on the disruption in the industry, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (OOTC:HWYI) (NYSE:BRK A) established a bond insurer late last year to insure municipal bonds. The insurer at first will be capitalized with $105 million, which according to a Friedman Billings Ramsey report will enable the company to write $16 billion in business.
By comparison, Ambac and MBIA together insure $700 billion in municipal bonds, according to Friedman Billings Ramsey.
MBIA also said Wednesday that federal regulators have been probing how thoroughly the insurer disclosed the risks it faced.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, MBIA said it furnished the SEC and the New York Insurance Department with information tied to the Warburg Pincus investment, as well as a disclosure to investors dated Dec. 10.
A deputy superintendent for the New York Insurance Department said it wanted to make sure the Warburg Pincus investment was still intact. The department is not investigating MBIA, he said. A spokesman for the SEC said the agency had no comment.
MBIA shares fell 5.9 percent to $13.16. At one point on the day the stock reached $11.11, its lowest trade since 1991.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22142847.htm
Rising residential defaults could be worse that expected
Washington Mutual stock falls amid mortgage woes
January 9, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Washington Mutual Inc. shares fell 13 percent on Wednesday amid concerns that rising residential defaults could be worse that expected in coming months.
Shares of Seattle-based WaMu, one of the nation's largest home lenders, were down $1.46, or 11.5 percent, to $11.27 on the New York Stock Exchange in afternoon trading, continuing a year-long fall. The shares traded at over $45 a year ago.
The WaMu stock fall came amid declines in other mortgage lenders after Countrywide Financial Corp <CFC.N>, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said that foreclosures and late payments rose in December to the highest on record.
Countrywide shares were trading at $4.72, down 83 cents or 15 percent, amid persistent rumors that it may be forced to seek bankruptcy, an option the company rejected earlier this week.
Like rivals, Countrywide has been hurt by falling home prices, rising defaults and tighter capital markets.
"We believe the extent of the deterioration is a surprise and does not bode well for the 4Q07 results of companies with mortgage credit exposure," said Lehman Brothers analyst Bruce Harting in a note to investors about Countrywide today.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/01/09/washington_mutual_stock_falls_amid_mortgage_woes/
New Century probe results to be aired
January 9, 2008
WILMINGTON, Del.—A bankruptcy judge Wednesday rebuffed New Century Financial Corp.'s effort to keep results of a court-ordered probe of its cash handling practices under seal indefinitely, saying the <b.company's arguments were a "smoke screen."</b.
Judge Kevin Carey gave the defunct, Irvine, Calif.-based lender until Feb. 6 to come to terms with federal bankruptcy monitors, who have called for the report of an investigation by Michael J. Missal to be made public.
Last year, Carey named Missal as an examiner in New Century's case. Missal is charged with looking into the accounting missteps that caused New Century to file erroneous financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission for 2005 and 2006.
That report has yet to be filed. Missal said that continued foot-dragging by the defunct lender, former leaders and accounting firm KPMG will hold it up until March.
He has, however, filed his findings on a probe of the possible mishandling of cash by the company after it filed for protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del. in April 2006.
Filed Nov. 21, 2006, Missal's first report has remained cloaked at the insistence of New Century, which said attorney-client privilege shielded the findings.
"The debtor's main motivation here was to prevent embarrassment over, among other things, having given allegedly misleading information to the examiner," Carey said, adding, "The assertion of attorney-client privilege is a smoke screen."
The judge said New Century's call to keep the report sealed for an indefinite period "demonstrates a bunker mentality" by the remnants of what was until last year one of the country's largest subprime home lenders.
He also commented he was "singularly unimpressed" by a 59-page reply to the Missal report filed by New Century, which is also under seal.
Joseph McMahon, trial attorney with the Office of the U.S. Trustee, said New Century had failed to show it was entitled to any of the exemptions offered in the bankruptcy code to the right of public access to court documents.
Carey said arguments from the official committee of unsecured creditors that immediate public disclosure of Missal's report could complicate their efforts to reach a deal with major secured creditors deserved weight in his decision.
"My inclination, frankly, is to give the parties a little more time to sit down among themselves and try to work it out in terms of what should come out and what shouldn't," the judge said.
Mark Indelicato, attorney for the official committee of unsecured creditors, asked for a four-month delay in unveiling the report, saying New Century's creditors need time to negotiate a plan and win confirmation.
"We are at a critical stage of the plan negotiations," Indelicato said.
McMahon said the U.S. Trustee's Office, an arm of the Department of Justice, had concluded that there was information in the report that should be included in the disclosure statement. The disclosure statement will outline the Chapter 11 plan that New Century will ultimately file, a plan that will set out how the remaining cash in the company will be distributed among creditors.
Ben Logan, attorney for New Century, cited fears that Missal's report could be used by a group of unsecured creditors who don't hold a seat on the official panel or ex-employees who have sued over the company's sudden shutdown, which they claim violated federal law. Additionally, Logan cited litigation with ex-employees who had socked away some of their pay in a deferred compensation fund.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/01/09/new_century_examiner_seeks_more_time/
Company Bond Risk Jumps to Record
as Goldman Predicts Recession
By Hamish Risk and Shannon D. Harrington
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of companies defaulting on their debt rose to a record after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is probably slipping into recession.
Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade index jumped 4.75 basis points to 101, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Hi Vol index of 30 European investment-grade companies rose to 99.5 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Both indexes, which include U.S. mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. and U.K. retailer Marks & Spencer Plc, are at the highest since they were created in 2004.
Goldman forecast today that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter from 4.25 percent now. The global default rate on bonds will climb more than fivefold by the end of this year as the economy weakens, Moody's Investors Service said yesterday.
``Contagion jitters are spreading,'' said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in London. ``Things could get a lot worse before they get better.''
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.
Contracts on New York-based Alcoa Inc., the world's third- largest aluminum company, rose 12 basis points to 77 today, according to CMA Datavision in London. The company is scheduled to report earnings after the close of trading today.
Countrywide
Credit-default swaps on Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, rose for a second day on concern that rising mortgage defaults and the collapse of the subprime mortgage market will force the Calabasas, California-based company into bankruptcy. The company denied it faces bankruptcy.
Credit-default swaps on $10 million of Countrywide debt cost $3 million plus $500,000-a-year for a five-year contract. The upfront cost increased from $2.8 million yesterday, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group.
Concern over the economy is growing after the Labor Department said last week unemployment is at the highest in two years amid the worst housing slump in 27 years.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in Stockholm today there's a 60 percent or greater chance that the U.S. economy will go into recession this year because of declining home prices and a loss of consumer confidence.
Next, BAA
In Europe, credit-default swaps on retailers soared after London-based Marks & Spencer, the U.K.'s biggest clothing retailer, said sales unexpectedly declined.
Contracts on Marks & Spencer jumped 20.5 basis points to 110.5 and the company's shares dropped the most in 19 years after revenue fell 2.2 percent at stores open at least a year in the fiscal third quarter.
Credit-default swaps on Paris-based LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's largest maker of luxury goods, rose 5 basis points to 61.5. U.K. clothing retailer Next Plc increased 16 basis points to 123.5. London airports operator BAA Ltd., which manages 65 duty free outlets, rose 30 basis points to 247.5.
Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings increased 10 basis points to 402 today, the highest since November, according to JPMorgan. The Markit iTraxx Europe index rose 4 basis points to 66.67.
A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting 10 million euros ($14.7 million) of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atZA6qkG2mQ8&refer=home
the shrinking interest margins
The math is pretty straightforward -- all of our favorite banks, from The Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS) to Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), borrow cash from various sources and lend it back out. The banks pocket the difference between what they pay lenders in interest and what rolls in from the loans they make -- otherwise known as the interest margin.
But now -- just as many investors are rallying around the Federal Reserve's rate cuts as a support for the lousy credit market -- those same rate cuts are bringing down the rates that banks can charge for their loans. Meanwhile, they've had to keep the rates that they pay out relatively steady in what has become fierce competition for funds. So let's think about what this means: While everyone is busy worrying about writedowns at the financial institutions, the shrinking interest margins could be quietly eating away at them as well.
So the big news has been that the banks are busily scrambling to keep their balance sheets as solid as possible, but when earnings reports for the fourth quarter start rolling out, we could see that things are -- yes, believe it or not -- even worse than expected.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/01/09/bankings-future-woes.aspx
Housing layoffs
Struggling companies in the mortgage and housing sectors
have cut more than 120,000 jobs in the past year.
Company Number of cuts
(min. 200)
Countrywide Financial* 11,520
Masco 8,000
American Home Mortgage 6,000
First Magnus 5,940
GMAC/Residential Capital 5,260
New Century 5,200
Lennar* 4,400
Capital One Financial 3,900
Stock Building Supply 3,500
National City 3,400
Washington Mutual 3,150
Bank of America 3,000
ACC Capital Holdings 2,600
SunTrust 2,400
Lehman Brothers 2,225
Option One 2,010
Pulte Homes 2,000
First American 1,900
HSBC mortgage businesses 1,760
ABN Amro Mortgage 1,700
Washington Mutual 1,640
Accredited Home Lenders 1,600
First Horizon 1,560
UBS* 1,500
IndyMac Bancorp 1,400
NovaStar Financial 1,395
Bear Stearns 1,350
Delta Financial 1,240
WMC Mortgage Corp.* 1,221
USG Corp. 1,100
LandAmerica Financial 1,100
Aegis Mortgage 1,000
Mortgage Lenders Network 900
First NLC Financial Services 850
Silver State Mortgage 800
First National Bank 753
Fifth Third 700
Beazer Homes 650
Lending Tree 650
E-Loan 627
Morgan Stanley 600
Deutsche Bank 580
WCI Communities 575
Bear Stearns 550
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage 500
NetBank* 450
Impac Mortgage Holdings 450
Chase Home Finance 430
EquiFirst 430
Fremont Investment & Loan 420
Nomura Holdings 400
Credit Suisse 350
Foxtons 350
PHH Mortgage 300
CIT Home Lending 300
The Mortgage Store 300
Spectrum Financial 280
People's Choice Home Loan 242
Lyon Homes 226
Fannie Mae 200
Acoustic Home Loans 200
Block Mortgage 200
Mohawk Industries 200
MortgageDaily.com
Total layoff announcements, all industries nationwide in 2007
January 62,975
February 84,014
March 48,997
April 70,672
May 71,115
June 55,726
July 42,897
August 79,459
September 71,739
October 63,114
November 73,140
December --
Total 726,998
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/breaking.asp?id=news/story/2007/08/layoffs_page.htm&siteId=
Banks start 2008 under pressure
National City slashes dividend, sets layoffs; Zions, Horizon unveil charges
By Greg Morcroft & Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:41 p.m. EST Jan. 2, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Banks kicked off 2008 on a downbeat note, as a handful of lenders disclosed new write-downs, provisions and plans to shore up weakened capital bases.
"The fourth quarter will likely shape up to be one of the worst in recent memory," Mark Fitzgibbon, banking analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
National City Corp. (NCC 14.50, -0.85, -5.5%) garnered the most attention as its board voted to slash its quarterly dividend in half. The company also said it's laid off 900 workers and will bolster capital as it becomes the latest to detail its exposure to the subprime-mortgage debacle.
'Bank managers will make this the mother of all kitchen-sink quarters.'
— Mark Fitzgibbon, Sandler O'Neill
Meanwhile, Zions Bancorp (ZION 42.40, -1.98, -4.5%) announced $55 million of new write-downs and charges, while Horizon Bancorp (HBNC 24.30, +0.29, +1.2%) set aside an extra $1.4 million to cover potential loan and lease losses.
Banks and thrifts will likely report fourth-quarter earnings per share that fall 1.2% below the same period in 2006, while the industry's non-performing assets will likely rise by more than 60%, according to Fitzgibbon estimates. And forecasts for banks' 2008 earnings are too high, he warned.
With U.S. stocks trading broadly lower to kick off 2008, National City's shares fell 5.8% to $15.51 during midday trading. Horizon declined 4.7% and Zions dropped 3.4%.
Cleveland-based National City declared a dividend of 21 cents a share, payable Feb. 1 to stockholders of record as of Jan. 14. The payout previously was 41 cents a share.
"We fully recognize that the dividend is an important element of return for shareholders, and we did not take the decision to reduce it lightly," said Chief Executive Peter Raskind said in a written statement. "However, our board and management strongly believe that this action is necessary to help meet the challenges ahead and to continue as a strong competitor in the financial-services industry."
'It is clear that origination volumes will be lower.'
— Peter Raskind, National City
To raise capital, the company said that in the first quarter it will accelerate previously disclosed plans to increase capital ratios to the high end of their respective target ranges: 5% to 6% for tangible common equity and 7% to 8% Tier 1 risk-based capital. It said it has hired Goldman Sachs to provide advice on these moves.
"We remain committed to the mortgage business, as the home mortgage is an essential consumer product," Raskind said. "However, it is clear that origination volumes will be lower going forward, and we are configuring our mortgage business to operate profitably in that environment."
National City said it anticipates mortgage originations in 2008 of approximately $15 billion to $20 billion.
The measures are just the latest at the bank, which already cut 800 positions and set cost saving goals last year. Companies in the mortgage and housing sectors have cut more than 120,000 jobs this year.
Problems at National City became clear in September, when executives unveiled an unexpected $200 million charge at its mortgage operations.
In October, National City said third-quarter profit fell 80%, largely due to a big loss at its mortgage-banking business. The firm reported a loss of $152 million in mortgage banking.
The bank also has said that it has assembled a full-time team to manage loan portfolios left over from the mortgage operation and that it "has significantly built reserves for expected losses on these portfolios."
Because of rising loan defaults, banks are forced to write down the value of portfolios holding loans. Banks will also need to increase cash reserves to cover any losses in those portfolios from charge-offs.
"Bank managers will make this the mother of all kitchen-sink quarters," Sandler O'Neill's Fitzgibbon said on Wednesday.
"They will take as many hits to earnings as possible, with an eye toward lowering the bar for 2008 and clearing the decks for smoother sailing," he added. "We will see a litany of items that will hit earnings in the fourth quarter, including charges related to shutting down lines of business, write-downs or charges related to the sale of certain assets, unusually high loan-loss provisions, severance costs, securities portfolio restructuring charges, etc."
Back on balance sheet
Late Monday, Zions said it will take a pre-tax write-down of $33 million related to Lockhart Funding, an off-balance sheet investment vehicle known as a commercial paper conduit.
These conduits borrow money short term in asset-backed commercial paper markets and invest the cash in longer-term assets, such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs.
Salt Lake City-based Zions said it bought $840 million of securities from Lockhart because the conduit couldn't get enough new financing in commercial paper.
The securities are guaranteed by U.S. government agencies or are AAA rated, the bank noted. They were bought by Zions below book value, leading to the $33 million write-down.
Zions also unveiled another $7 million write-down related to a $25 million CDO it bought from Lockhart.
A $15 million pre-tax expense will also be recorded in the fourth quarter to reflect the fair-market value of another troubled CDO, Zions said.
Auto loans go bad
Michigan City, Ind.-based Horizon said late Monday that the $1.4 million of extra provisions cover deterioration in its portfolios of wholesale mortgages and auto loans.
"In recent months, Horizon has experienced an increasing trend in repossessions and voluntary surrenders of vehicles, which has caused an increase in losses," the lender explained.
Total provision expenses for the fourth quarter will be nearly $1.8 million, up from $550,000 in the third quarter, the bank added.
Despite the additional charge, Horizon said earnings for 2007 will exceed those for 2006.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/inauspicious-start-2008-national-city/story.aspx?guid=%7B3C297560%2D2997%2D4994%2D8B60%2D1DDEBC0E8F72%7D
Sallie Mae Shares Tumble on Disclosure
Friday January 4, 5:26 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Investors Pummel Sallie Mae After Company Discloses Plan to Cut Back on Making Student Loans
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of Sallie Mae tumbled 13 percent on Friday, hitting a 52-week low, as investors reacted to the company's disclosure that it would cut back on its core business of making student loans.
Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student lender, has suffered in recent months from higher borrowing costs and the collapse of a $25 billion buyout. It has slashed its earnings forecast for the year and held a special sale of stock to raise $2.9 billion in cash.
Sallie Mae, formally known as SLM Corp., said in a regulatory filing Thursday that it planned to "be more selective" in making student loans, both those backed by the federal government and the higher-rate private loans. The Reston, Va.-based company reaped a bonanza in recent years from the boom in student lending, with some 10 million customers, and around $25 billion in private student loans and $128 billion in government-backed loans outstanding.
The company said in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it was retrenching in the business because of market conditions and the landmark student-loan law that took effect last October, cutting billions of dollars in federal subsidies for student lenders.
Meanwhile, defaults are rising on student loans, and credit-market tremors similar to those linked to the mortgage crisis have recently started to surface in the $85 billion student-loan market.
The travails have pummeled Sallie Mae shares. They sank Friday to $16.67, down $2.49, or 13 percent, after hitting a new annual low of $16.35 earlier in the day. That is a fraction of the $60-per-share buyout offer made last spring by the investor group led by private-equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co.
The company said in the regulatory filing that there might be a silver lining on the horizon.
"We expect to see many participants exit the student-loan industry in response to the (new law) as well as current market conditions," the company said. As a result, it said, it expects to partly compensate for its reduced loan volumes "with increased market share taken from participants exiting the industry."
Last month, Sallie Mae reduced its profit forecast for 2008 by more than 13 percent, blaming the constricting of credit markets that has driven up its costs for borrowing billions of dollars needed to fund its student loans. At the same time, the company said it failed to revive interest from the investor group that offered in April to buy it for $25 billion in the $60-a-share cash deal that has now wound up in court.
The flagging financial outlook for Sallie Mae, which lost $344 million in last year's third quarter, could bolster the investor group's legal argument that it should not have to pay a $900 million fee for walking away from the deal because of significant changes in economic or regulatory conditions affecting the company.
In a stormy conference call with analysts, Sallie Mae chief executive Albert L. Lord brushed aside several questions and ended the session with an expletive.
Then the company disclosed that federal education officials plan to examine whether its billing practices complied with federal law. Sallie Mae also noted a discrimination lawsuit filed against it recently in federal court in Connecticut by two women who alleged the company charged higher prices to students at schools with high black and Hispanic populations. It denied the allegation.
Sallie Mae's sale last week of nearly 102 million shares of common stock, at $19.65 each, raised $2.9 billion -- of which it said $2 billion would go to cover unprofitable contracts with its Wall Street bankers that require it to buy back shares at above-market prices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080104/sallie_mae.html
As I see, we gonna suffer even here in Europe.
In my view, we're hitting the end of the "rosy times" for the modern capitalism.
Nice board, Marked.
This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting
Phillippe Diederich for The New York Times
A model home in Cape Coral, Fla. In the wake of the real estate bust, the area is facing falling home values, foreclosures, municipal cutbacks and the loss of jobs.
By PETER S. GOODMAN
Published: December 23, 2007
Cape Coral, Fla.
TWO years ago, when Eric Feichthaler was elected mayor of this palm-fringed, middle-class city, he figured on spending a lot of time at ribbon-cuttings. Tens of thousands of people had moved here in recent years, turning musty flatlands into a grid of ranch homes painted in vibrant Sun Belt hues: lime green, apricot and canary yellow.
Mr. Feichthaler was keen to build a new high school. He hoped to widen roads and extend the reach of the sewage system, limiting pollution from leaky septic tanks. He wanted to add parks.
Now, most of his visions have shrunk. The real estate frenzy that once filled public coffers with property taxes has over the last two years given way to a devastating bust. Rather than christening new facilities, the mayor finds himself picking through the wreckage of speculative excess and broken dreams.
Last month, the city eliminated 18 building inspector jobs and 20 other positions within its Department of Community Development. They were no longer needed because construction has all but ceased. The city recently hired a landscaping company to cut overgrown lawns surrounding hundreds of abandoned homes.
“People are underwater on their houses, and they have just left,” Mr. Feichthaler says. “That road widening may have to wait. It will be difficult to construct the high school. We know there are needs, but we are going to have to wait a little bit.”
Waiting, scrimping, taking stock: This is the vernacular of the moment for a nation reckoning with the leftovers of a real estate boom gone sour. From the dense suburbs of northern Virginia to communities arrayed across former farmland in California, these are the days of pullback: with real estate values falling, local governments are cutting services, eliminating staff and shelving projects.
Families seemingly disconnected from real estate bust are finding themselves sucked into its orbit, as neighbors lose their homes and the economy absorbs the strains of so much paper wealth wiped out so swiftly.
Southwestern Florida is in the midst of this gathering storm. It was here that housing prices multiplied first and most exuberantly, and here that the deterioration has unfolded most rapidly. As troubles spill from real estate and construction into other areas of life, this region offers what may be a foretaste of the economic pain awaiting other parts of the country.
Cape Coral is in Lee County, across the Caloosahatchee River from Fort Myers. In the county, a tidal wave of foreclosures is turning some neighborhoods into veritable ghost towns. The county school district recently scrapped plans to build seven new schools over the next two years. Real estate agents and construction workers are scrambling for other lines of work, and abandoning the area. As houses are relinquished to red ink and the elements, break-ins are skyrocketing, yet law enforcement is resigned to making do with existing staff.
“We’re all going to have to tighten the belt somehow,” says Robert Petrovich, Cape Coral’s chief of police.
FLORIDA real estate has long been synonymous with boom and bust, but the recent cycle has packed an unusual intensity. The Internet made it possible for people ensconced in snowy Minnesota to type “cheap waterfront property” into search engines and scroll through hundreds of ads for properties here. Cape Coral beckoned speculators, retirees and snowbirds with thousands of lots, all beyond winter’s reach.
Creative finance lubricated the developing boom, making it easy for buyers to take on more mortgage debt than they could otherwise handle, driving prices skyward. Each upward burst brought more investors — some from as far as California and Europe, real estate agents say.
Joe Carey was part of the speculative influx. An owner of rental property in Ohio, he visited Cape Coral in 2002 and found that he could buy undeveloped quarter-acre lots for as little as $10,000. Nearby, there were beaches, golf courses and access to the Caloosahatchee River, which empties into the Gulf of Mexico.
Builders were happy to arrange construction loans, then erect houses in as little as six months. Real estate agents promised to find buyers before the houses were even finished.
“All you needed was a pulse,” Mr. Carey said. “The price of dirt was going up. We took that leap of faith and put down $10,000.”
Backed by easily acquired construction loans, Mr. Carey’s investment allowed him to buy three lots and top off each with a new home. He flipped them immediately for about $175,000 each, he recalls. Then he bought more lots, confident that Cape Coral and Fort Myers — the county seat across the river — would continue to blossom. From 2000 to 2003, the population of the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area grew to nearly 500,000 from 444,000, according to Moody’s Economy.com.
“Jobs were very plentiful,” Mr. Carey said. “The construction trade was up, stores were opening up, and doctors were coming in. It kind of built its own economy.”
In 2003, Mr. Carey became a real estate agent. The next year, he opened a title company. Then he teamed up with seven others to open a local office for Keller Williams Realty, the national realty chain. They hired 40 agents.
By 2004, the median house price in Cape Coral and Fort Myers had shot up to $192,100, according to the Florida Association of Realtors — a jump of 70 percent from $112,300 just four years earlier. In 2005, the median price climbed an additional 45 percent, to more than $278,000.
Lots that Mr. Carey once bought for $10,000 were now going for 10 times that. During the best times back in Ohio, he once earned about $100,000 in a year. At the height of the Florida boom, in 2005, he says he raked in $800,000. “If you just got up and went to work,” he says, “pretty much anybody could become an overnight millionaire.”
National home builders poured in, along with construction workers, roofers and electricians. But as a kingdom of real estate materialized, growth ultimately exceeded demand: investors were selling to one another, inflating prices. When the market figured this out in late 2005, it retreated with punishing speed.
“It was as if someone turned off the faucet,” Mr. Carey said. “It just came to a screeching halt. When it stopped, people started dumping property.”
By October this year, the median house price was down to $239,000, some 14 percent below the peak. That same month, he and his partners shuttered his real estate office. In November, he closed the title company. On a recent afternoon, he went to his old office in a now-quiet strip mall to take home the remaining furniture. He was preparing to move to the suburbs of Atlanta.
While speculators may find it easy enough to pack up and move on, they are leaving behind an empire of vacant houses that will not be easily sold. More than 19,000 single-family homes and condos are now listed on the market in Lee County. Fewer than 500 sold in November, meaning that at the current rate it would take three years for the market to absorb all the houses.
“Confusion abounds because nobody knows where the bottom is,” says Gerard Marino, a commercial Realtor at the Re/Max Realty Group in Fort Myers.
Commercial builders are unloading properties at sharply reduced prices, sometimes even below construction costs, which further adds to the glut.
“It’s our goal to clear out the inventory,” James P. Dietz, the chief financial officer of WCI Communities, a Florida-based home builder, said in an interview two weeks ago. “We have to generate cash to make payroll.” Last week, Mr. Dietz announced he would leave WCI at the end of this year to pursue a career in the vacation resort business.
AT Pelican Preserve, a gated community set around a 27-hole golf course in Fort Myers, WCI has halted building, leaving some residents staring at mounds of earth where they expected to see manicured lawns. Half-built condos sit isolated in a patch of dirt, cut off from the road.
“It bugs the hell out of my wife,” says Paul Bliss, 61, whose three-bedroom town house is next to a half-built home site. “She looks out and sees that concrete slab.”
But the builder makes no apologies. “There was such a falloff in demand that it made no sense to build new units,” says Mr. Dietz, adding that the pause in construction “doesn’t in any way detract from the property.”
Throughout Lee County, a sense of desperation has seized the market as speculators try to unload property or lure renters. On many lawns, a fierce battle is under way for the attention of passers-by, with “for rent” signs narrowly edging out “for sale.”
In Cape Coral, foreclosure filings in the first 10 months of the year reached 4,874, more than a fourfold increase over the same period the previous year, according to RealtyTrac, an online provider of foreclosure information.
Elaine Pellegrino and her daughter, Charlene, see no way to avoid joining that list.
Seven years ago, Ms. Pellegrino and her husband bought their three-bedroom house in northwestern Cape Coral for $97,000, without having to make a down payment.
The land was mostly empty then. But as construction crews descended and a thicket of new homes took shape, values more than doubled. The Pellegrinos’ mailbox brimmed with offers to convert that good fortune into cash by refinancing their mortgage. They bit, borrowing against the inflated value of their home to buy two businesses: an auto repair shop and a lawn service.
“We were thinking we were on the way up,” Ms. Pellegrino says.
But last December, Ms. Pellegrino’s husband died unexpectedly, leaving her with the two businesses, both deeply in debt, and $207,000 she owed against her home, which is now worth about $130,000, she says.
Disabled and 53 years old, Ms. Pellegrino does not work. She says she lives on a $1,259 monthly Social Security check. Her daughter, a college student, receives $325 a month for child support for one child. Charlene Pellegrino has been looking on the Web for office work for months, but with so many people being laid off, she has come up empty, she says. They have not paid their mortgage in four months.
“What can we do?” Charlene Pellegrino asks, as dusk nears and her driveway lights glow into a void. The rest of the block lies in shadows, with little light emanating from surrounding homes.
“We’re probably going to lose the house,” she says.
But not anytime soon. The Pellegrinos have joined a new cohort offered up by the real estate unraveling: they are among those waiting in their own homes for the seemingly inevitable. The courts are so stuffed with foreclosures that they assume they can stay for a while.
“We figure we have at least six months,” Elaine Pellegrino says. “We haven’t heard a thing from the bank for a long time.”
AS construction and real estate spiral downward, the unemployment rate in Lee County has jumped to 5.3 percent from 2.8 percent in the last year. With more than one-fourth of all homes vacant, residential burglaries throughout the county have surged by more than one-third.
“People that might not normally resort to crime see no other option,” says Mike Scott, the county sheriff. “People have to have money to feed their families.”
Darkened homes exert a magnetic pull. “When you have a house that’s vacant, that’s out in the middle of nowhere, that’s a place where vagrants, transients, dopers break a back window and come in,” the sheriff adds.
The county’s Department of Human Services has seen a substantial increase in applications for a program that helps pay rent and utility bills for those in need. Half the applicants say they have lost jobs or seen their work hours reduced, said Kim Hustad, program manager.
At Grace United Methodist Church in Cape Coral, Pastor Jorge Acevedo normally starts aid drives this time of year for health clinics in places like India and Africa. This year, the church is buying Christmas presents for about 50 children in the congregation, many who are are in families suffering through job losses.
At Selling Paradise Realty, a sign seeks customers with a free list of properties facing foreclosure and “short sales,” meaning the price is less than the owner owes the bank. Inside, Eileen Rodriguez, the receptionist, said the firm could no longer hand out the list. “We can’t print it anymore,” she says. “It’s too long.”
In late November, more than 2,600 of the 5,500 properties for sale in Cape Coral were short sales, says Bobby Mahan, the firm’s owner and broker. Most people who bought in 2004 and 2005 owe more than they paid, he says. “Greed and speculation created the monster.”
As much as anything, the short sales are responsible for the market logjam. To complete a deal, the lender holding the mortgage must be persuaded to share in the loss and write off some of what is due. “A short sale is a long and arduous process,” Mr. Mahan says. “Battling the banks is horrendous.”
Kevin Jarrett is stuck in that quagmire. In 1995, freshly arrived from Illinois, he put down $1,000 to buy a house in Lehigh Acres, in eastern Lee County.
Three years later, Mr. Jarrett left his mental health-counseling job and began selling real estate. He bought progressively nicer homes, keeping the older ones to rent, while borrowing against the rising value of one to finance the next.
Mr. Jarrett acquired a taste for $100 dinners. He bought a powerboat and a yellow Corvette convertible. (In a photograph on his business card, Mr. Jarrett sits behind the wheel, the top down, offering a friendly wave.) Last summer, he paid $730,000 for a 2,500-square-foot home in Cape Coral with a pool and picture windows looking out on a canal.
But Mr. Jarrett hasn’t closed a deal in three months. He is on track to earn about $50,000 for the year, he said. Yet he needs $17,000 a month just to pay the mortgages, insurance, taxes and utility bills on his four properties — all worth less than half what he owes. Rental income brings in only about $3,500 a month.
Mr. Jarrett has not paid the mortgage on two of his properties in six months and is behind on the others as well, he says. His goal is to sell everything, move into a rental and start over.
He is supplementing his income by selling MonaVie, a nutritional juice that retails for $45 a bottle. He recently dropped health insurance for his family, saving about $680 a month. He is applying for a state-subsidized health plan that would cover his 9-year-old daughter. “I’m in survival mode,” he says.
Many others are in similar straits, and the situation has had a ripple effect on the local economy. Scanlon Auto Group, a luxury car dealer, says it has seen its sales dip significantly — the first time that’s happened in 25 years. Rumrunners, a popular Cape Coral restaurant with tables gazing out on a marina, says its business is down by a third, compared with last year.
Furniture dealers are folding. Hardware stores are suffering. At Taco Ardiente in Lehigh Acres, business is down by more than three-fourths, complains the owner, Hugo Lopez. His tables were once full of the Hispanic immigrants who filled the ranks of the construction trade. The work is gone, and so are the workers.
AT the state level, Florida’s sales tax receipts have slipped by nearly one-tenth this year, and by 14 percent in Lee County. That is a clear sign of a broad economic slowdown, said Ray T. Kest, a business professor at Hodges University in Fort Myers.
“It started with housing, the loss of construction jobs, mortgage companies, title companies, but now it’s spread through the entire economy,” Mr. Kest says as he walks a strip of mostly empty condo towers on the riverside in downtown Fort Myers. “It now has permeated everything.”
In recent years, Bishop Verot Catholic High School in Fort Myers had raised as much as $200,000 by selling goods at a dinner auction. Michael Pfaff, a Cape Coral mortgage broker, used to donate a weekend cruise on his 40-foot catamaran. But Mr. Pfaff’s business has all but disappeared, and he recently sold the boat. This year, the school canceled the auction and is deferring building maintenance.
The county school district’s decision to cancel construction of new public schools reflects a broader diminishing of resources. Developers have to pay so-called impact fees to the district to help fund new facilities. Two years ago, the district took in $56 million in such fees. Next year, it expects only $25 million.
New schools are no longer needed anyway, says the schools superintendent, James W. Browder. Many families connected to construction and real estate have moved away, so school enrollments are growing more slowly than expected. This could generate a snowball effect all its own: the new schools were to cost as much as $60 million each to build, so canceling them could mean further job cuts for the already reeling building industry.
Mr. Browder points out an upside of the housing downturn: Hiring people has become easy. In recent years, the school system struggled to find bus drivers, given the abundance of jobs at twice the pay driving dump trucks in home construction. “Now, we get 14 applicants for every job,” he says.
The county government depends on property taxes for a third of its general funding. Since taxes are assessed based on the previous year’s real estate values, it has yet to feel a dent. But agencies are under significant pressure to pare back in anticipation of a dip in next year’s funds.
Tax-cutting advocates cheer this prospect. Governments have gotten fat on the boom, they say. A constitutional amendment facing Florida voters in January would expand tax caps for many residences statewide.
“All the local governments were drunk with money,” says Mr. Kest, the finance professor. “Now, they’re going to have to cut back and learn how to manage.”
But local officials counter that they are already being forced to contemplate significant changes that could affect everyday life. The county’s public safety division, which operates ambulance services, says it could be obliged to cut staff. The county’s Natural Resources Department recently delayed a $2.1 million project to filter polluted runoff spilling into the Lakes Regional Park — a former quarry turned into a waterway dotted by islands and frequented by native waterfowl.
People who were priced out of the earlier boom here could wind up the winners. “We had an affordable-housing crisis,” says Tammy Hall, a Lee County commissioner. “The people who were here for a fast buck are gone. You’re going to see normal people go back into that housing.”
When Andrea Drewyor, 24, moved to Cape Coral from Ohio this year to take a teaching job, she found a brand-new two-bedroom waterfront duplex in a gated community with a fitness center, a swimming pool and a Jacuzzi — all for $875 a month in rent.
At night, most of the units around her are dark. The developer can moan.
Not Ms. Drewyor.
“I like not having a lot of people living here,” she said. “This place is awesome.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/business/23house.html?em&ex=1198731600&en=adb997dd0bbe41fd&ei=5087%0A
The Coming Collapse of the Modern Day Banking System
Staring Into the Abyss
By MIKE WHITNEY December 17, 2007
Stocks fell sharply last week on news of accelerating inflation which will limit the Federal Reserves ability to continue cutting interest rates. On Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 294 points following the Fed's announcement of a quarter point cut to the Fed Funds rate. On Friday, the Dow dipped another 178 points when government figures showed consumer prices had risen 0.8 per cent last month after a 0.3 per cent gain in October. The stock market is now lurching downward into a "primary bear market". There has been a steady deterioration in retail sales, commercial real estate, and the transports. The financial industry is going through a major retrenchment, losing more than 25 per cent in aggregate capitalization since July. The real estate market is collapsing. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced on Friday that he will declare a "fiscal emergency" in January and ask for more power to deal with the $14 billion budget shortfall from the meltdown in subprime lending.
Economists are beginning to publicly acknowledge what many market analysts have suspected for months; the nation's economy is going into a tailspin.
Morgan Stanley's Asia Chairman, Stephen Roach, made this observation in a New York Times op-ed on Sunday:
This recession will be deeper than the shallow contraction earlier in this decade. The dot-com-led downturn was set off by a collapse in business capital spending, which at its peak in 2000 accounted for only 13 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The current recession is all about the coming capitulation of the American consumer - whose spending now accounts for a record 72 percent of G.D.P.
Most people have no idea how grave the present situation is or the disaster the country will face if trillions of dollars of over-leveraged bonds and equities begin to unwind. There's a widespread belief that the stewards of the system - Bernanke and Paulson - can somehow steer the economy through this "rough patch" into calm waters. But they cannot, and the presumption shows a basic misunderstanding of how markets work. The Fed has no magical powers and will not allow itself to be crushed by standing in the path of a market-avalanche. As foreclosures and bankruptcies increase; stocks will crash and the fed will step aside to safety.
In the last few weeks, Bernanke and Paulson have tried a number of strategies that have failed. Paulson concocted a plan to help the major investment banks consolidate and repackage their nonperforming mortgage-backed junk into a "Super SIV" to give them another chance to unload their bad investments on the public. The plan was nothing more than a public relations ploy which has already been abandoned by most of the key participants. Paulson's involvement is a real black eye for the Dept of the Treasury. It makes it look like he's willing to dupe investors as long as it helps his d Wall Street buddies.
Paulson also put together an "industry friendly" rate freeze that is supposed to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. But the plan falls well short of providing any meaningful aid to the estimated 3.5 million homeowners who are facing the prospect of defaulting on their loans if they don't get government assistance. Recent estimates by industry experts say that Paulson's plan will only help 140,000 mortgage holders, leaving millions of others to fend for themselves. Paulson has proved over and over that he is just not up to the task of confronting an economic challenge of this magnitude head-on.
Fed chief Bernanke hasn't done much better than Paulson. His three-quarter point cut to the Fed's Funds rate hasn't lowered interest rates on mortgages, stimulated greater home sales, stabilized the stock market or helped banks deal with their massive debt-load. It's been a flop from start to finish. All it's done is weaken the dollar and trigger a wave of inflation. In fact, government figures now show energy prices are rising at 18.1 per cent annually. Bernanke is apparently following Lenin's supposed injunction though there's no conclusive evidence he actually said it -- that "the best way to destroy the Capitalist System is to debauch the currency."
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve initiated a "coordinated effort" with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the and the Swiss National Bank to address the "elevated pressures in short-term funding of the markets." The Fed issued a statement that "it will make up to $24 billion available to the European Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank to increase the supply of dollars in Europe." (Bloomberg) The Fed will also add as much as $40 billion, via auctions, to increase cash in the U.S. Bernanke is trying to loosen the knot that has tightened Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) rates in England and reduced lending between banks. The slowdown is hobbling growth and could send the world into a recessionary spiral. Bernanke's "master plan" is little more than a cash giveaway to sinking banks. It has scant chance of succeeding. The Fed is offering $.85 on the dollar for mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that sold last week in the E*Trade liquidation for $.27 on the dollar. At the same time, the Fed has promised to keep the identities of the banks that are borrowing these emergency funds secret from the public. The Fed is conducting its business like a bookie.
Unfortunately, the Fed bailout has achieved nothing. Libor rates---which are presently at seven-year highs---have not come down at all. This is causing growing concern among the leaders of the Central Banks around the world, but there's really nothing they can do about it. The banks are hoarding cash to meet their capital requirements. They are trying to compensate for the loss of value to their (mortgage-backed) assets by increasing their reserves. At the same time, the system is clogged with trillions of dollars of bad paper which has brought lending to a halt. The huge injections of liquidity from the Fed have done nothing to improve lending or lower interbank rates. It's been a flop. The market is driving interest rates now. If the situation persists, the stock market will crash.
Staring Into the Abyss
One of Britain's leading economists, Peter Spencer, issued a warning on Saturday:
The Government must suspend a set of key banking regulations at the heart of the current financial crisis or risk seeing the economy spiral towards a future that could make 1929 look like a walk in the park.
Spencer is right. The banks don't have the money to loan to businesses or consumers because they're trying to raise more cash to meet their capital requirements on assets that continue to be downgraded. (The Fed may pay $.85 on the dollar, but investors are unwilling to pay anything at all.)Spencer correctly assumes that the reason the banks have stopped lending is not because they "distrust" other banks, but because they are capital-strapped from all their "off balance" sheets shenanigans. If the Basel regulations aren't modified, money markets will remain frozen, GDP will shrink, and there'll be a wave of bank closings.
Spencer said:
The Bank is staring into the abyss. The Financial Services Authority must go round and check that all banks are solvent, and then it should cut the Basel capital requirement level from 8pc to about 6pc. ("Call to Relax Basel Banking Rules, UK Telegraph)
Spencer confirms what we already knew; the banks are seriously under-capitalized and will come under growing pressure as hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) continue to lose value and have to be propped up with additional capital. The banks simply don't have the resources and there's going to be a day of reckoning.
Pimco's Bill Gross put it like this: "What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking system." Gross is right, but he only covers a small portion of the problem.
The economist Ludwig von Mises is more succinct in his analysis:
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
The basic problem originated with the Federal Reserve when former Fed chief Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates below the rate of inflation for 31 months straight which pumped trillions of dollars of low interest credit into the financial system and ignited a speculative frenzy in real estate. Greenspan has spent a great deal of time lately trying to avoid any blame for the catastrophe he created. He is a first-rate "buck passer". In Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, Greenspan scribbled out a 1,500-word defense of his actions as head of the Federal Reserve, pointing the finger at everything from China's "low cost workforce" to "the fall of the Berlin Wall". The essay was typical Greenspan gibberish. In his trademark opaque language; Greenspan tiptoes through the well-documented facts of his tenure as Fed chief to absolve himself of any personal responsibility for the ensuing disaster.
Greenspan's apologia is a masterpiece of circuitous logic, deliberate evasion and utter denial of reality. He says:
I do not doubt that a low U.S. federal-funds rate in response to the dot-com crash, and especially the 1 per cent rate set in mid-2003 to counter potential deflation, lowered interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and may have contributed to the rise in U.S. home prices. In my judgment, however, the impact on demand for homes financed with ARMs was not major.
"Not major"? 3.5 million potential foreclosures, 11-month inventory backlog, plummeting home prices, an entire industry in terminal distress pulling down the global economy is not major?
But Greenspan is partially correct. The troubles in housing cannot be entirely attributed to the Fed's "cheap credit" monetary policies. They were also nursed along by a Doctrine of Deregulation which has permeated US capital markets since the Reagan era. Greenspan's views on how markets should function were -- to great extent -- shaped by this non-interventionist/non-supervisory ideology which has created enormous equity bubbles and imbalances. The former-Fed chief's support for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and subprime lending shows that Greenspan thought of himself as more as a cheerleader for the big market-players than an impartial referee whose job was to monitor reckless or unethical behavior.
Greenspan also adds this revealing bit of information in his article:
The value of equities traded on the world's major stock exchanges has risen to more than $50 trillion, double what it was in 2002. Sharply rising home prices erupted into major housing bubbles world-wide, Japan and Germany (for differing reasons) being the only principal exceptions." ("The Roots of the Mortgage Crisis", Alan Greenspan, Wall Street Journal)
This admission proves Greenspan's culpability. If he knew that stock prices had doubled their value in just 3 years, then he also knew that equities had not risen due to increases in productivity or demand.(market forces) The only reasonable explanation for the asset inflation, therefore, was monetary policy. As his own mentor, Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Any capable economist would have known that the explosion in housing and equities prices was a sign of uneven inflation. Now that the bubble has popped, inflation is spreading like mad through the entire economy.
Greenspan is a very sharp man. It is crazy to think he didn't know what was going on. This is basic economic theory. Of course he knew why stocks and housing prices were skyrocketing. He was the one who put the dominoes in motion with the help of his printing press.
But Greenspan's low interest credit is only part of the equation. The other part has to do with way that the markets have been transformed by "structured finance".
What's so destructive about structured finance is that it allows the banks to create credit "out of thin air", stripping the Fed of its role as controller of the money supply. David Roache explains how this works in an excerpt from his book "New Monetarism" which appeared in the Wall Street Journal:
The reason for the exponential growth in credit, but not in broad money, was simply that banks didn't keep their loans on their books any more-and only loans on bank balance sheets get counted as money. Now, as soon as banks made a loan, they "securitized" it and moved it off their balance sheet.
There were two ways of doing this. One was to sell the securitized loan as a bond. The other was "synthetic" securitization: for example, using derivatives to get rid of the default risk (with credit default swaps) and lock in the interest rate due on the loan (with interest-rate swaps). Both forms of securitization meant that the lending bank was free to make new loans without using up any of its lending capacity once its existing loans had been "securitized."
So, to redefine liquidity under what I call New Monetarism, one must add, to the traditional definition of broad money, all the credit being created and moved off banks' balance sheets and onto the balance sheets of nonbank financial intermediaries. This new form of liquidity changed the very nature of the credit beast. What now determined credit growth was risk appetite: the readiness of companies and individuals to run their businesses with higher levels of debt. (Wall Street Journal)
The banks have been creating trillions of dollars of credit (by originating mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and asset-backed commercial paper) without maintaining the proportional capital reserves to back them up. That explains why the banks were so eager to provide mortgages to millions of loan applicants who had no documentation, no income, no collateral and a bad credit history. They believed there was no risk, because they were making enormous profits without tying up any of their capital. It was, quite literally, money for nothing.
Now, unfortunately, the mechanism for generating new loans (and fees) has broken down. The main sources of bank revenue have either been seriously curtailed or dried up entirely. (Mortgage-backed) Commercial paper (ABCP) one such source of revenue, has decreased by a full-third (or $400 billion) in just 17 weeks. Also, the securitization of mortgage-backed securities is DOA. The market for MBSs and CDOs and other complex bonds has followed the Pterodactyl into the history books. The same is true of structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and other "off balance-sheet" swindles which have either gone under entirely or are presently withering with every savage downgrade in mortgage-backed bonds. The mighty juggernaut that was grinding out the hefty profits ("structured investments") has suddenly reversed and is crushing everything in its path.
The banks don't have the reserves to cover their downgraded assets and the Federal Reserve cannot simply "monetize" their bad bets. There's no way out. There are bound to be bankruptcies and bank runs. "Structured finance" has usurped the Fed's authority to create new credit and handed it over to the banks.
Now everyone will pay the price.
Investors have lost their appetite for risk and are steering clear of anything connected to real estate or mortgage-backed bonds. That means that an estimated $3 trillion of securitized debt (CDOs, MBSs and ASCP) will come crashing to earth delivering a violent blow to the economy.
It's not just the banks that will take a beating. As Professor Nouriel Roubini points out, the broker dealers, the investment banks, money market funds, hedge funds and mortgage lenders are in the crosshairs as well.
Non-bank institutions do not have direct access to the Fed and other central banks liquidity support and they are now at risk of a liquidity run as their liabilities are short term while many of their assets are longer term and illiquid; so the risk of something equivalent to a bank run for non-bank financial institutions is now rising,. And there is no chance that depository institutions will re-lend to these to these non-banks the funds borrowed by central banks as these banks have severe liquidity problems themselves and they do not trust their non-bank counterparties. So now monetary policy is totally impotent in dealing with the liquidity problems and the risks of runs on liquid liabilities of a large fraction of the financial system. (Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor)
As the downgrades on CDOs and MBSs continue to accelerate, there'll likely be a frantic "flight to cash" by investors, just like the recent surge into US Treasuries. This could well be followed by a series of spectacular bank and non-bank defaults. The trillions of dollars of "virtual capital" that were miraculously created through securitzation when the market was buoyed-along by optimism will vanish in a flash when the market is driven by fear. In fact, the equity bubble has already been punctured and the process is well underway.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney12172007.html
borrowing short to go long
September 18, 2007
U.S. Banks Brace for Storm Surge as Dollar and Credit System Reel
By MIKE WHITNEY
By now, you’ve probably seen the photos of the angry customers queued up outside of Northern Rock Bank waiting to withdraw their money. This is the first big run on a British bank in over a century. It’s lost an eighth of its deposits in three days. The pictures are headline news in the U.K. but have been stuck on the back pages of U.S. newspapers. The reason for this is obvious. The same Force 5 economic-hurricane that just touched ground in Great Britain is headed for America and gaining strength on the way.
On Monday night, desperately trying to stave off a wider panic, the British government issued an emergency pledge to Northern Rock savers that their money was safe. The government is trying to find a buyer for Northern Rock.
This is what a good old fashioned bank run looks like. And, as in 1929, the bank owners and the government are frantically trying to calm down their customers by reassuring them that their money is safe. But human nature being what it is, people are not so easily pacified when they think their savings are at risk. The bottom line is this: The people want their money, not excuses.
But Northern Rock doesn’t have their money and, surprisingly, it is not because the bank was dabbling in risky subprime loans. Rather, NR had unwisely adopted the model of “borrowing short to go long” in financing their mortgages just like many of the major banks in the U.S. In other words, they depended on wholesale financing of their mortgages from eager investors in the market, instead of the traditional method of maintaining sufficient capital to back up the loans on their books.
It seemed like a nifty idea at the time and most of the big banks in the US were doing the same thing. It was a great way to avoid bothersome reserve requirements and the loan origination fees were profitable as well. Northern Rock’s business soared. Now they carry a mortgage book totaling $200 billion dollars.
$200 billion! So why can’t they pay out a paltry $4 or $5 billion to their customers without a government bailout?
It’s because they don’t have the reserves and because the bank’s business model is hopelessly flawed and no longer viable. Their assets are illiquid and (presumably) “marked to model”, which means they have no discernible market value. They might as well have been “marked to fantasy”,it amounts to the same thing. Investors don’t want them. So Northern Rock is stuck with a $200 billion albatross that’s dragging them under.
A more powerful tsunami is about to descend on the United States where many of the banks have been engaged in the same practices and are using the same business model as Northern Rock. Investors are no longer buying CDOs, MBSs, or anything else related to real estate. No one wants them, whether they’re subprime or not. That means that US banks will soon undergo the same type of economic gale that is battering the U.K right now. The only difference is that the U.S. economy is already listing from the downturn in housing and an increasingly jittery stock market.
That’s why Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed off to England yesterday to see if he could figure out a way to keep the contagion from spreading.
Good luck, Hank.
It would interesting to know if Paulson still believes that “This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime”, or if he has adjusted his thinking as troubles in subprime, commercial paper, private equity, and credit continue to mount?
For weeks we’ve been saying that the banks are in trouble and do not have the reserves to cover their losses. This notion was originally pooh-poohed by nearly everyone. But it’s becoming more and more apparent that it is true. We expect to see many bank failures in the months to come. Prepare yourself. The banking system is mired in fraud and chicanery. Now the schemes and swindles are unwinding and the bodies will soon be floating to the surface.
“Structured finance” is touted as the “new architecture of financial markets”. It is designed to distribute capital more efficiently by allowing other market participants to fill a role which used to be left exclusively to the banks. In practice, however, structured finance is a hoax; and undoubtedly the most expensive hoax of all time. The transformation of liabilities (dodgy mortgage loans) into assets (securities) through the magic of securitization is the biggest boondoggle of all time. It is the moral equivalent of mortgage laundering. The system relies on the variable support of investors to provide the funding for pools of mortgage loans that are chopped-up into tranches and duct-taped together as CDOs (collateralized debt obligations). It’s madness; but no one seemed to realize how crazy it was until Bear Stearns blew up and they couldn’t find bidders for their remaining CDOs. It’s been downhill ever since.
The problems with structured finance are not simply the result of shabby lending and low interest rates. The model itself is defective.
John R. Ing provides a great synopsis of structured finance in his article, “Gold: The Collapse of the Vanities”:
"The origin of the debt crisis lies with the evolution of America's financial markets using financial engineering and leverage to finance the credit expansion…. Financial institutions created a Frankenstein with the change from simply lending money and taking fees to securitizing and selling trillions of loans in every market from Iowa to Germany. Credit risk was replaced by the "slicing and dicing" of risk, enabling the banks to act as principals, spreading that risk among various financial institutions….. Securitization allowed a vast array of long term liabilities once parked away with collateral to be resold along side more traditional forms of short term assets. Wall Street created an illusion that risk was somehow disseminated among the masses. Private equity too used piles of this debt to launch ever bigger buyouts. And, awash in liquidity and very sophisticated algorithms, investment bankers found willing hedge funds around the world seeking higher yielding assets. Risk was piled upon risk. We believe that the subprime crisis is not a one off event but the beginning of a significant sea change in the modern-day financial markets.”
The investment sharks who conjured up “structured finance” knew exactly what they were doing. They were in bed with the ratings agencies----off-loading trillions of dollars of garbage-bonds to pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and foreign financial giants. It’s a swindle of epic proportions and it never would have taken place in a sufficiently regulated market.
When crowds of angry people are huddled outside the banks to get their money, the system is in real peril. Credibility must be restored quickly. This is no time for Bush’s “free market” nostrums or Paulson’s soothing bromides (he thinks the problem is “contained”) or Bernanke’s feeble rate cuts. This requires real leadership.
The first thing to do is take charge, alert the public to what is going on and get Congress to work on substantive changes to the system. Concrete steps must be taken to build public confidence in the markets. And there must be a presidential announcement that all bank deposits will be fully covered by government insurance.
The lights should be blinking red at all the related government agencies including the Fed, the SEC, and the Treasury Dept. They need to get ahead of the curve and stop thinking they can minimize a potential catastrophe with their usual public relations mumbo jumbo.
Last week, an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal, “Banks Flock to Discount Window”. (9-14-07) The article chronicled the sudden up-tick in borrowing by the struggling banks via the Fed’s emergency bailout program, the “Discount Window”:
“Discount borrowing under the Fed’s primary credit program for banks surged to more than $7.1 billion outstanding as of Wednesday, up from $1 billion a week before.”
Again we see the same pattern developing; the banks borrowing money from the Fed because they cannot meet their minimum reserve requirements.
WSJ: “The Fed in its weekly release said average daily borrowing through Wednesday rose to $2.93 billion.”
$3 billion.
Traditionally, the “Discount Window” has only been used by banks in distress, but the Fed is trying to convince people that it’s really not a sign of distress at all. It’s “a sign of strength”. Baloney. Banks don’t borrow $3 billion unless they need it. They don’t have the reserves. Period.
The real condition of the banks will be revealed sometime in the next few weeks when they report earnings and account for their massive losses in “down-graded” CDOs and MBSs.
Market analyst Jon Markman offered these words of advice to the financial giants
"Before they (the financial industry) take down the entire market this fall by shocking Wall Street with unexpected losses, I suggest that they brush aside their attorneys and media handlers and come clean. They need to tell the world about the reality of their home lending and loan securitization teams' failures of the past four years -- and the truth about the toxic paper that they've flushed into the world economic system, or stuffed into Enron-like off-balance sheet entities -- before the markets make them walk the plank.”….” (in retrospect they have, look at the charts above) Since government regulators and Congress have flinched from their responsibility to administer "tough love" with rules forcing financial institutions to detail the creation, securitization and disposition of every ill-conceived subprime loan, off-balance sheet "structured investment vehicle," secretive money-market "conduit" and commercial-paper-financing vehicle, the market will do it with a vengeance."
Good advice. We’ll have to wait and see if anyone is listening. The investment banks may be waiting until Tuesday hoping that Fed-chief Ben Bernanke announces a cut to the Fed’s fund rate that could send the stock market roaring back into positive territory.
But interest rate cuts do not address the underlying problems of insolvency among homeowners, mortgage lenders, hedge funds and (potentially) banks. As market-analyst John R. Ing said, “A cut in rates will not solve the problem. This crisis was caused by excess liquidity and a deterioration of credit standards…. A cut in the Fed Fund rate is simply heroin for credit junkies.”
The cuts merely add more cheap credit to a market that that is already over-inflated from the ocean of liquidity produced by former-Fed chief Alan Greenspan. The housing bubble and the credit bubble are largely the result of Greenspan’s misguided monetary policies. (For which he now blames Bush!) The Fed’s job is to ensure price stability and the smooth operation of the markets, not to reflate equity bubbles and reward over-exposed market participants.
It’s better to let cash-strapped borrowers default than slash interest rates and trigger a global run on the dollar. Financial analyst Richard Bove says that lower interest rates will do nothing to bring money back into the markets. Instead, lower interest rates will send the dollar into a tailspin and wreak havoc on the job market.
“There is no liquidity problem, but a serious crisis of confidence," Bove said:
"In a financial system where there is ample liquidity and a desire for higher rates to compensate for risk, the solution is not to create more liquidity and lower the rates that are available to compensate for risk. ... (The Fed) cannot reduce fear by stimulating inflation…
"It is illogical to assume that holders of cash will have a strong desire to lend money at low rates in a currency that is declining in value when they can take these same funds and lend them at high rates in a currency that is gaining in value. By lowering interest rates the Federal Reserve will not stimulate economic growth or create jobs. It will crash the currency, stimulate inflation, and weaken the economy and the job markets".
Bove is right. The people and businesses that cannot repay their debts should be allowed to fail. Further weakening the dollar only adds to our collective risk by feeding inflation and increasing the likelihood of capital flight from American markets. If that happens; we’re toast.
Consider this: In 2000, when Bush took office, gold was $273 per ounce, oil was $22 per barrel and the euro was worth $.87 per dollar. Currently, gold is over $700 per ounce, oil is over $80 per barrel, and the euro is nearly $1.40 per dollar. If Bernanke cuts rates, we’re likely to see oil at $125 per barrel by next spring.
Inflation is soaring. The government statistics are thoroughly bogus. Gold, oil and the euro don’t lie. According to economist Martin Feldstein, “The falling dollar and rising food prices caused market-based consumer prices to rise by 4.6 per cent in the most recent quarter.” (WSJ)
That’s 18.4 per cent a year, and yet Bernanke is still considering cutting interest rates and further fueling inflation.
What about the American worker whose wages have stagnated for the last six years? Inflation is the same as a pay-cut for him. And how about the pensioner on a fixed income? Same thing. Inflation is just a hidden tax progressively eroding his standard of living.
Bernanke’s rate cut may be boon to the “cheap credit” addicts on Wall Street, but it’s the death-knell for the average worker who is already struggling just to make ends meet.
No bailouts. No rate cuts. Let the banks and hedge funds sink or swim like everyone else. The message to Bernanke is simple: “It’s time to take away the punch bowl”.
The inflation in the stock market is just as evident as it is in the price of gold, oil or real estate. Economist and author Henry Liu demonstrates this in his article “Liquidity Boom and the Looming Crisis”:
"The conventional value paradigm is unable to explain why the market capitalization of all US stocks grew from $5.3 trillion at the end of 1994 to $17.7 trillion at the end of 1999 to $35 trillion at the end of 2006, generating a geometric increase in price earnings ratios and the like. Liquidity analysis provides a ready answer".(Asia Times)
Market capitalization zoomed from $5.3 trillion to $35 trillion in 12 years? Why? Was it due to growth in market-share, business expansion or productivity?
No. It was because there were <b.more dollars chasing the same number of securities,/b>; hence, inflation.
If that is the case, then we can expect the stock market to fall sharply before it reaches a sustainable level. As Liu says, “It is not possible to preserve the abnormal market prices of assets driven up by a liquidity boom if normal liquidity is to be restored.” Eventually, stock prices will return to a normal range.
Bernanke should not even be contemplating a rate cut. The market needs more discipline not less. And workers need a stable dollar. Besides, another rate cut would further jeopardize the greenback’s increasingly shaky position as the world’s “reserve currency”. That could destabilize the global economy by rapidly unwinding the U.S. massive current account deficit.
The International Herald Tribune summed up the dollar’s problems in a recent article, "Dollar's Retreat Raises Fear of Collapse."
"Finance ministers and central bankers have long fretted that at some point, the rest of the world would lose its willingness to finance the United States' proclivity to consume far more than it produces - and that a potentially disastrous free-fall in the dollar's value would result.
"The latest turmoil in mortgage markets has, in a single stroke, shaken faith in the resilience of American finance to a greater degree than even the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 or the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, analysts said. It has also raised prospect of a recession in the wider economy.
"This is all pointing to a greatly increased risk of a fast unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit and a serious decline of the dollar".
Other experts and currency traders have expressed similar sentiments. The dollar is at historic lows in relation to the basket of currencies against which it is weighted. Bernanke can’t take a chance that his effort to rescue the markets will cause a sudden sell-off of the dollar.
The Fed chief’s hands are tied. Bernanke simply doesn’t have the tools to fix the problems before him. Insolvency cannot be fixed with liquidity injections nor can the deeply-rooted “systemic” problems in “structured finance” be corrected by slashing interest rates. These require fiscal solutions, congressional involvement, and fundamental economic policy changes.
Rate cuts won’t help to rekindle the spending spree in the housing market either. That charade is over. The banks have already tightened lending standards and inventory is larger than anytime since they began keeping records. The slowdown in housing is irreversible as is the steady decline in real estate prices. Trillions in market capitalization will be wiped out. Home equity is already shrinking as is consumer spending connected to home-equity withdrawals.
The bubble has popped regardless of what Bernanke does. The same is true in the clogged Commercial Paper market where hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term debt is due to expire in the next few weeks. The banks and corporate borrowers are expected to struggle to refinance their debts but, of course, much of the debt will not roll over. There will be substantial losses and, very likely, more defaults.
Bernanke can either be a statesman---and tell the country the truth about our dysfunctional financial system which is breaking down from years of corruption, deregulation and manipulation---or he can take the cowards-route and buy some time by flooding the system with liquidity, stimulating more destructive consumerism, and condemning the nation to an avoidable cycle of double-digit inflation.
We’ll know his decision soon enough.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney09182007.html
Why does the mainstream media persist in focusing on the retail end of the mortgage industry? Sure, there was plenty of fraud and corruption and plain unethical lending. But that's not even close to the main concern, for a Federal Reserve chief.The retail end of the mortgage industry--that Congress is also focusing on--is a red herring. The world economy is not reeling from too many adjustable rate mortgages, or, lending to poor Americans. Come on! The world economy is reeling because Wall Street took the ordinary mortgage industry and turned it into riverboat gambling, using ordinary mortgage loans and multiplying the underlying debt 10X, 20X, 100X, then selling the debt to investors without friction of regulation, protected by a phalanx of bankers, road pavers, cement manufacturers, and political contributors.
As Federal Reserve chair, with a fascination for arcane numbers, Alan Greenspan surely knew three things: 1) that the outsized role of securitization on Wall Street was ballooning due to lack of regulations or reporting standards, 2) that the world of financial derivatives, dreamt up by Salomon bond trader Louis Ranieri in the 1980's, had rained billions of dollars in commissions on Wall Street while injecting unheard of risk into world financial markets, and 3) that currying the favor of Wall Street involved active disassociation between the first two points.
But Stahl and 60 Minutes simply repeated the rote business of 15 second sound bites on nightly news: the foreclosures, the for sale signs, the layoffs.The question for Greenspan is simple: what did you know, and when did you know it, about financial derivatives related to the mortgage industry? Who did you talk to, Mr. Greenspan, in the building and construction industries who played to your vanity and genius by ratcheting down the federal funds rate to the lowest levels in US financial history?
Why didn't you ask for better information, Mr. Greenspan, or regulation?
It simply doesn't wash that Greenspan wasn't paying attention. On weekends he and his wife Andrea Mitchell were hobnobbing on Miami Beach with celebrities and the swell crowd, the geek version of F. Scott and Zelda Fitzgerald off Lincoln Road. What didn't Mr. Greenspan see? All the indicators of wealth driven by a financial bubble were in plain view. (see eyeonmiami.blogspot.com, archive feature "housing crash".)
Stahl and 60 Minutes blew it.
http://www.counterpunch.org/farago09182007.html
Credit Card Payments Missed at Alarming Rate
Unpaid Credit Cards Bedevil Americans
By RACHEL KONRAD and BOB PORTERFIELD
Posted: 2007-12-23 17:25:03
SAN FRANCISCO (Dec. 23) - Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments at an alarming rate, sending delinquencies and defaults surging by double-digit percentages in the last year and prompting warnings of worse to come.
An Associated Press analysis of financial data from the country's largest card issuers also found that the greatest rise was among accounts more than 90 days in arrears.
Experts say these signs of the deterioration of finances of many households are partly a byproduct of the subprime mortgage crisis and could spell more trouble ahead for an already sputtering economy.
"Debt eventually leaks into other areas, whether it starts with the mortgage and goes to the credit card or vice versa," said Cliff Tan, a visiting scholar at Stanford University and an expert on credit risk. "We're starting to see leaks now."
The value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late jumped 26 percent to $17.3 billion in October from a year earlier at 17 large credit card trusts examined by the AP. That represented more than 4 percent of the total outstanding principal balances owed to the trusts on credit cards that were issued by banks such as Bank of America and Capital One and for retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart.
At the same time, defaults - when lenders essentially give up hope of ever being repaid and write off the debt - rose 18 percent to almost $961 million in October, according to filings made by the trusts with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Serious delinquencies also are up sharply: Some of the nation's biggest lenders - including Advanta (ADVNB), GE Money Bank and HSBC - reported increases of 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent when compared with the same period a year ago.
The AP analyzed data representing about 325 million individual accounts held in trusts that were created by credit card issuers in order to sell the debt to investors - similar to how many banks packaged and sold subprime mortgage loans. Together, they represent about 45 percent of the $920 billion the Federal Reserve counts as credit card debt owed by Americans.
Until recently, credit card default rates had been running close to record lows, providing one of the few profit growth areas for the nation's banks, which continue to flood Americans' mailboxes with billions of letters monthly offering easy sign-ups for new plastic.
Even after the recent spike in bad loans, the credit card business is still quite lucrative, thanks to interest rates that can run as high as 36 percent, plus late fees and other penalties.
But what is coming into sharper focus from the detailed monthly SEC filings from the trusts is a snapshot of the worrisome state of Americans' ability to juggle growing and expensive credit card debt.
The trend carried into November. As of Friday, all of the trusts that filed reports for the month show increases in both delinquencies and defaults over November 2006, and many show sequential increases from October.
Discover accounts 30 days or more delinquent jumped 25,716 from November 2006 and had increased 6,000 between October and November this year.
Many economists expect delinquencies and defaults to rise further after the holiday shopping season.
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com Inc., cited mounting mortgage problems that began after this summer's subprime financial shock as one of the culprits, as well as a weakening job market in the Midwest, South and parts of the West, where real-estate markets have been particularly hard hit.
"Credit card quality will continue to erode throughout next year," Zandi said.
Economists also cite America's long-standing attitude that debt - even high-interest credit card debt - is not a big deal.
"The desires of consumers to want, want, want, spend, spend, spend - it's the fabric of our nation," said Howard Dvorkin, founder of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., which has advised more than 5 million people in debt. "But you always have to pay the piper, and that can be a very painful process."
Filing for bankruptcy is no longer a solution for many Americans because of a 2005 change to federal law that made it harder to walk away from debt. Those with above-average incomes are barred from declaring Chapter 7 - where debts can be wiped out entirely - except under special circumstances and must instead file a repayment plan under the more restrictive Chapter 13.
Personal finance coaches say the problem is most grave for individuals who are months delinquent or already in default - like Kenneth McGuinness, a postal clerk from Flushing, N.Y.
His credit card struggles began nine years ago, when he charged his son's college tuition and books. He thought he was being clever: His credit card's 6 percent "teaser" interest rate was lower than the 8.6 percent interest on a college loan.
McGuinness, 61, soon began using Citibank and Chase cards for food, dental work and copays on doctor visits and minor surgeries. Interest rates surged to 30 percent. Now he's $37,000 in debt and plans to file for bankruptcy in February.
"I tried to pay what I could and go after the high-interest accounts first," McGuinness said. "But it just kept getting higher and higher, and with late charges and surcharges I was going backward."
In the wake of the jump in defaults on subprime mortgage loans made to borrowers with poor credit histories, banks have been less willing to allow consumers to consolidate credit card debt into home equity loans or refinanced mortgages. That is leaving some with no option but to miss payments, economists said.
Investors also are backing away from buying securitized credit-card debt, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director at Credit Suisse. But that probably has more to do with concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, he said.
"It's been getting tougher to finance any kind of structured finance - mortgages, automobile loans, credit cards, student loans," said Orenbuch, who specializes in the credit industry.
Capital One Financial Corp. reported that delinquencies and defaults are highest in regions where troubled mortgages are concentrated, including California and Florida.
Among the trusts examined, Bank of America Corp. had the highest delinquency volume, with overdue accounts valued at $5 billion. Bank of America defaults in October were almost 200 percent higher than in October 2006.
A spokesman for Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America declined to comment.
Other trusts - including those linked to Capital One (COF), American Express Co., Discover Financial Services Co. (DFS) and those containing "branded" cards from Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc., Lowe's Companies Inc., Target Corp. and Circuit City Stores Inc. - also reported striking increases in year-over-year delinquency and default rates for October. Most banks and other financial institutions holding credit card debt on their own books also reported double-digit increases in delinquencies.
The one exception in October was JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (CCF) credit card trust, which reported declines in both delinquencies and defaults. A Chase spokesperson attributed this to its focus on prime borrowers and aggressive account management.
By contrast, Capital One executives told analysts last month that the company projected 2008 write-offs of credit card debt to be at least $4.9 billion. This projection, analysts were told, took into account growing delinquencies and potential effects if the housing market continued its downward slide.
Capital One spokeswoman Julie Rakes said the increase in delinquencies could be due to an accounting change last summer, which shortened the grace period between when statements were issued and the due date.
Capital One also reported that the number of accounts 90 days or more in arrears had increased between October and November. More than 1.2 million of Capital One's 30 million accounts were either delinquent or in default.
Many personal financial coaches <b.expect this trend to accelerate in 2008 - particularly among people who took out untraditional loans whose interest rate has risen, requiring owners to pay mortgages several hundred dollars more than just a year ago.
"You're looking at more and more distress - consumers desperately trying to preserve their credit lines, but there's nowhere else to go," said Robert Manning, director of the Center for Consumer Financial Services at Rochester Institute of Technology. "It's like a game of dominoes."
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/unpaid-credit-cards-bedevil-americans/20071223165009990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001
An Alternative to Banks
December 21, 2007, 11:44AM EST
Prosper, based in San Francisco, is one of a tiny but growing number of for-profit online social lending marketplaces in the U.S., which some entrepreneurs are looking to as alternatives to bank loans. (The original concept of making small loans available to people with no collateral in the developing world started in the 1970s and has been growing steadily more popular, sparking praise (BusinessWeek.com, 10/13/06), controversy (BusinessWeek.com, 12/13/07), and nonprofit successes like Kiva (BusinessWeek Small Biz, 7/31/06).) As the credit crunch (BusinessWeek Small Biz, October/November, 2007) makes getting a loan even harder for small business owners, for-profit social lending could play a bigger role in financing small enterprises in the U.S. Most sites reported that between 20% to 30% of loans are for businesses; it is the second most common reason borrowers listed, after refinancing debt.
Three companies besides Prosper offer similar services in the U.S: Zopa, Lending Club, and Virgin Money. Zopa just began lending in the U.S. on Dec. 4; the site operated in Britain for about two years before that. Lending Club, which started as a Facebook application in May, became available in all 50 states on Dec. 13. Virgin Money, originally CircleLending, doesn't connect lenders and borrowers, but it formalizes loans between family and friends. British mogul Richard Branson bought CircleLending this year and relaunched the site in October. Two new sites, Loanio and GlobeFunder, have announced plans to launch in 2008.
"These peer-to-peer lending sites are ideal for people who are not quite in the normal, plain-vanilla credit model that everybody has," says Jim Bruene, publisher of the Online Banking Report, a trade publication, and the author of a recent report on social lending
"Certainly business startups or business people who are self-employed fall through the cracks."
No one is counting on social lending to replace banks. Virgin Money has documented $250 million in loans since it was launched as CircleLending in 2001. Prosper users borrowed a total of $103 million through the end of November. The volume is miniscule compared to the total amount loaned: "That's Bank of America (BAC) for a couple hours," Bruene says.
More Flexible Standards
But these sites offer a quick turnaround that appeals to entrepreneurs, especially in a difficult credit market. Nearly one-tenth of responding banks tightened credit standards for small business loans in the third quarter, while none said they had loosened standards, according to the Federal Reserve's October survey of senior loan officers. Social lending sites still evaluate borrowers' credit ratings, but they add another factor as well: the power of the pitch.
Zopa Chief Executive Officer Doug Dolton points to a borrower on his site who got a $10,000 loan at 16.99% to start a Christian comedy club in San Jose. "I think it would have been challenging for him to find that financing from a normal bank," Dolton says. In Zopa's model, the loans are funded by partner credit unions. Then investors on the site can buy certificates of deposit from the credit unions, insured investments that reduce the borrower's payments. "They look at the story and they find the story compelling, and then they click on the borrower," says Dolton. "What we found is that people enjoy reading these stories."
Lending money is still a business, however, and lenders want to see returns regardless of how good a story the borrower has. Lenders are advised to spread their investments across many loans to reduce the risk. "I think that human-interest part of it is definitely a factor in how people decide," Bruene says. "Whether it helps this thing go from being a very small niche to being mainstream activity, it's going to depend on whether it works for the lender."
Because peer-to-peer finance sites expose borrowers to thousands of potential lenders rather than just one loan officer, the hope is that some of those lenders will be willing to take on risk that a bank won't.
"Sometimes banks have an inflexible way of operating their credit policy, as they probably should," says Lending Club founder Renaud Laplanche. "Lenders make their own decisions to fund businesses based on different factors: how they relate to that person and how much they want to help that person in addition to getting a good return for themselves."
Lindgren says his creditors on Prosper understood his online business better than bank officers did. "When we went to the banks, they're not used to lending to Internet companies," he says. Loan officers balked at the debt Direct Textbook already had on its books. But the Web-savvy lenders on Prosper understood why the company needed to borrow to buy ads at the back-to-school rush, and they deemed Lindgren a good credit risk because he demonstrated how the ads had led to traffic and sales in the past.
For Lindgren, the loan paid off. Direct Textbook, which expects profits of $120,000 on $500,000 in revenue this year, poured the money into Google (GOOG) ads to boost his site's traffic and the money it makes on sales referrals. "We could pay the full amount back now," Lindgren says. "We keep it open because then that keeps $25,000 in our lines open."
Flip through this slide show to learn about the advantages and disadvantages of the four for-profit social lenders—Lending Club, Prosper, Virgin Money, and Zopa—that are trying to appeal to entrepreneurs in the U.S.
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2007/sb20071221_753107.htm?chan=smallbiz_smallbiz+index+page_top+small+business+stories
https://us.zopa.com/
http://www.prosper.com/
http://www.lendingclub.com/
http://www.virginmoneyus.com/
http://www.loanback.com/
Merrill May Get Capital Infusion
Friday December 21, 10:17 am ET
Merrill Lynch May Get Capital Infusion From Singapore's Temasek, Report Says; Shares Rise
NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. shares rose Friday on a report that the nation's biggest brokerage is seeking a $5 billion investment from Singapore state-owned investment agency Temasek Holdings.
The investment bank is said to be in advanced talks with Temasek about a capital infusion to help cushion it from credit-market related losses, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. It would become the latest global bank to turn overseas for cash to bail it out of huge losses related to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Merrill Lynch shares rose $1.19, or 2.2 percent, to $55.69 in morning trading on hope the cash infusion would help cushion any further losses linked to the credit turmoil. Merrill has already taken $7.9 billion of writedowns from bad bets on risky mortgage-backed securities.
A spokeswoman for Merrill Lynch declined to comment. Telephone calls to Temasek went unanswered.
Global banks have written down an estimated $105 billion this year alone from exposure to mortgage-backed securities. And, there have already been a string of deals between sovereign funds -- mostly from Asia and the Middle East -- announced in recent months.
Temasek's board has already given preliminary approval for an investment into Merrill, according to the report, which cited unnamed people familiar with the situation. However, pricing, timing and regulatory issues remain to be negotiated, the report said.
A deal with Temasek may not happen yet, the report said, adding that Merrill may be in discussions with other government investment funds besides Temasek.
Analysts have predicted that Merrill's mortgage writedowns may double with another $8 billion or more in the fourth quarter. Merrill's third-quarter writedowns led to a loss of $2.3 billion.
Any potential deal between Merrill Lynch and Temasek would continue a trend of global banks seeking foreign capital. Morgan Stanley on Wednesday announced a $5 billion investment from China's government-controlled investment vehicle to help replenish its capital.
In October, Bear Stearns Cos. agreed to a $1 billion investment from China's government-controlled Citic Securities Co. Citigroup Inc. received a $7.5 billion capital infusion from the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government last month.
UBS AG last week announced that the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., the city-state's other state investment fund, is investing $9.75 billion for a 9 percent stake in the Swiss banking giant.
Analysts said Merrill needed the potential investment.
"We suspect (Merrill's) current capital position is adequate from a regulatory standpoint but, similar to (Bear) and (Morgan Stanley), its position is likely not sufficient from an industry competitive standpoint without a deal," Wachovia Capital Markets analyst Douglas Sipkin said in a note to clients.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071221/merrill_lynch_investment.html?.v=5
Sovereign funds have been providing troubled U.S. and European banks with much-needed cash. Over the past month, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority bought a stake in Citigroup Inc. for $7.5 billion; the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. invested $9.75 billion in UBS AG; and this week China Investment Corp. paid $5 billion for a stake in Morgan Stanley.
Megaforce #3
Housing Bust, Mortgage Meltdown, And Credit Crunch Guarantee a U.S. Recession
While emerging markets and natural resources are being propelled forward by rapid growth, the U.S. economy is being held back — or even dragged down — by the housing bust, mortgage meltdown and credit crunch.
The crux of the problem: Most consumers and corporations in America are addicted to debt. And now, a larger and larger percentage is getting cut off, with serious withdrawal pains.
The best evidence: The Fed's just-released bank survey, which demonstrates just how severely lenders are now tightening their credit standards. The survey shows that ...
A higher percentage of banks are tightening standards on commercial and industrial loans than at any time since the first quarter of 2003.
Far more banks are charging wider spreads on their loans. In other words, they're increasing the amount of extra interest cushion they need above and beyond their cost of funds to make commercial loans.
On non-traditional mortgages, a key measure of tightening standards has jumped by a whopping 50% just since last quarter.
Banks are also clamping down on conventional mortgages; the percentage of banks reporting tighter standards in this sector has now jumped to the highest level since 1991.
Even lending for commercial real estate is getting slammed, with more banks toughening their standards than at any time since 1990. (See Mike Larson's blog .)
This is serious. And in my view, it virtually guarantees a recession in the United States. But it also guarantees a continuation of ...
Megaforce #4
Massive Money-Pumping By the U.S. Federal Reserve
In previous cycles, when the dollar plunged, the Federal Reserve would almost automatically intervene to help slow the trend.
Today, the Fed is doing precisely the opposite. It's running the money printing presses at full speed, flooding the economy with cold cash, and making it plainly clear that it virtually guarantees a growing economy.
But for an economy already slammed by the worst credit crunch in a generation, it's too little, too late. It's simply not enough to prevent a recession.
And for world commodities already surging in cost, it's too much, too soon — driving them even higher.
Bottom line: The massive wealth shift from traditional investments like Dow stocks to alternatives — such as emerging markets, commodities and commodity stocks — is just beginning.
Great news: So much is happening so fast — with so many new profit opportunities we want to alert you to — we've decided to expand Money and Markets from six to seven times per week.
Mike Larson will resume writing his regular update each Friday. Jack Crooks will bring you the latest on the dollar and foreign currencies every weekend. And the rest of our team will continue to deliver to you their current insights for the balance of the week.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com .
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2828.html
"Reckless" Lending by Central Banks Risks US Recession
Dec 18, 2007 - 01:30 AM
By: Jas_Jain
On Wednesday, December 12, 2007, leading Central Banks surprised the markets by promising to “rain money” on American and European banks. After years of Fed facilitating the pushing of debt on households by private financial institutions, including turning blind-eye to obvious abuses in the mortgage market, it suddenly is pushing debt on banks (ready money, or reserves, in exchange for questionable collateral) with the hope that they would continue lending to households. Would it work? Hell no.
How do I know? I happened to listen to Alan Greenspan, during a question answer season in London few weeks ago, midnight California time, in which he said, “During early 1990s the money supply numbers stopped working [money supply was growing but banks were reluctant to lend]. We [Fed] put buckets of money out there [in the banks, similar to what the Fed is trying to do now] and it didn't work. It was only after Wall Street came up with more [or newer] CDO products [“innovations” in securitization of debt] and took debt off the banks' balance sheets that banks started to lend again and the economy began to respond.” Presently, the securitization of debt is in trouble due to its abuses. The process that took debt off banks' balance sheets is clogged. Pouring rapid water in a clogged sink doesn't work too well. It makes a mess.
Central banks' announcement also ignited one of the biggest gains in crude oil price, which was working its way down due to prospects of the weakening US economy and was having hard time staying above $90/barrel, up almost $5 at one point and closed up $4.37 for the day. A trader in the futures trading pit commented that most of the increase in price was due to the surprise action taken by the central banks. The net result was that most of the announced money to be showered by the central banks was expected to be siphoned off to the petroleum exporting countries, many of which are what I call Al Qaeda nations.
Let us take this thought one step further. Let us hypothesize two scenarios for the US economy for the 12-month period, 2007Q4-2008Q3; one in which the US economy grows by 2% a year (an optimistic case) and one in which the US economy contracts by 1% a year (somewhat pessimistic case, but not the most pessimistic by any means). It is a reasonable assumption that the average crude oil price for the year would be $20-$40 per barrel lower in the second case despite all the talk of global decoupling. Assuming a $30 per barrel difference in the crude oil price between the two growth scenarios, a conservative estimate I might add (it could be $100 versus $40 per barrel under the two scenarios), Al Qaeda nations and their friends, or supporters like Venezuela, would take in $100B more from Americans under the 2% GDP growth scenario compared with 1% contraction scenario. It could even be as high as $200B.
Where would the money come from to produce 2% GDP growth if that were possible? Continuation of the debt-push on households, by private financial institutions, to the tune of $900-$1000B. The historical pattern of growth in the household debt versus growth in the GDP, since 1950, suggests that a household debt growth of $500-$600B would be necessary to keep the US economy out of recession during 2007Q4-2008Q3. If the growth in the household debt, mortgage debt being the overwhelming component, is limited to $400B then we are certain to have a 1%, or larger, contraction in the GDP. This clarity, in GDP growth versus household debt growth, is what is missing in the recession versus no recession debate.
It is undeniable that something big has happened in the US mortgage lending business since September 2007, mostly due to full recognition of the falling home prices, i.e., end of the denial, and its direct contribution to the sharp increase in foreclosures and losses in the US mortgage debt “securities” being experienced around the world (the collateral underlying the “securities” being lot less secure than imagined!). Assuming that the consumer credit (it excludes the mortgage debt) growth remains around $100B a year, if you were a betting man, or woman, would you bet on the mortgage debt to grow by $300B, or $500B, or $800B annual rate? Depending upon your answer you are indirectly predicting a deep recession, or mild recession, or 1.5-2% growth, respectively, for the 12-month period, 2007Q4-2008Q3. If the outstanding US mortgage debt stops to grow, led primarily by defaults in the existing mortgages, then we are talking about a depression. Pure and simple. That is how much addicted to debt the US economic growth has been turned into. Withdrawal of the addiction substance, or stimulus, means depression!
Now, do you see why the US Federal Reserve is panicking? Fed wants the private banks to keep lending money to the households (businesses are not much in the need of borrowing except for commercial real estate, which is suddenly turning down). Since most of the lending to the households is in the form of mortgage lending, the banks and other mortgage lenders are gun-shy.
I am sure that most people by now know how we arrived at the situation called “the mortgage mess.” Many also know that the mess is far deeper than what the “sub-prime” mantra suggests. Amazing part is that we got here despite terms like “reckless mortgage lending” being applied to it by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley some three years ago. This from Sprott Asset Management in July 2005: “…combined with rampant speculation and lax (even reckless ) lending standards, has added a further leg to the housing bubble. However… there is only so much that housing prices can go up from here, and only so reckless that lenders can get, before the housing bubble collapses under its own weight.” (Emphasis added).
Some of us cranks and kooks have known about the mortgage insanity, or the evil practice of pushing debt, for some five years. I have put the term reckless in the title in quotes because there was nothing reckless about what the Fed did last week or it ever does, just as there was nothing reckless about the mortgage lenders' pushing of debt and securitization by Wall Street (it was extremely profitable while it lasted). Long-term, there is no business as profitable as the debt business. The mortgage debt-push was a premeditated and fully thought out process.
There is nothing else that the Fed can do to keep the economy from slipping into recession, or depression, than to keep the debt-push going at an elevated pace. Unfortunately, Fed can't directly push debt on households (no helicopter drops!). It needs banks as conduits and banks are in trouble. As Schumpeter noted, bankers' mischief leads to catastrophes (his term for depressions). And he was talking about the private bankers. The role of the private bankers in causing the Great Depression is kept very quiet. Federal Reserve exists to get the blame! We have arrived at the juncture where the Fed becomes impotent. It has reached level of impotence beyond the economic equivalent of VIAGRA. That is what gross abuse of a function can lead to.
Finally, I turn to the unintended and very harmful long-term consequences of Fed's policy of facilitating debt-push on the US households for the past five years – greatly strengthening Al Qaeda nations and creating a formidable economic and political rival in China. (Yes, China has been the biggest beneficiary of the debt-push on the US households that has gone on all thru the Greenspan-Bernanke years and accelerated during the past five years).
From a website on US energy consumption problem: “Q: Who controls the price of oil - OPEC or the Big Oil companies? A: NEITHER. It's you and me.” How about the Fed and the private bankers?! The price is determined at the margin and a large segment of American population will borrow and consume as long as, and as much as, there are bankers ready to lend to them. It is like putting candy in front of a kid. Without the debt-push for the past five years the crude oil today would be more like $20-$30 a barrel and Chinese economy would be 3/4 th its size. Anyone who believes in decoupling theory would soon find out that China will suffer from the US households' withdrawal symptoms.
For those of you who are worried about inflation, the total household debt growth below $300B annual rate will lead to outright deflation within months (inflation always lags). Household debt growth is inflationary in the present and deflationary in the future. Fed has been fighting deflation for the past five years by maintaining elevated rate of household debt growth! Controlled inflation , around 3%, has been Fed's policy for the past 25 years, after Volcker tamed inflation. There is no such thing as “corrosive deflation,” Mr. Greenspan; there is only corrosive inflation. The policy of controlled corrosion in purchasing power is a bad one for the American workers and, especially, the poor. Sen. Bernie Sanders was right when he said to Greenspan, “that you see your major function in your position as the need to represent the wealthy and large corporations." Who helped Greenspan get the appointment?!
It Is the Debt, Stupid!
Jas Jain
PS: With the industrial base shrinking, America's Military-Industrial Complex of the Eisenhower Era has been exported to China to make way for today's Financial-Military Complex with military ready to serve bankers and financiers' interests.
By Jas Jain, Ph.D.
the Prophet of Doom and Gloom
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3121.html
Bear Stearns Reports First-Ever Quarterly Loss
December 20, 2007, 8:19 am
Bear Stearns reported a steep loss for its fourth quarter, its first ever in its eight-decade history, exceeding analysts’ fears about how much the investment bank would suffer from subprime mortgages bets.
The news marks Bear Stearns as one of the biggest casualties of the mortgage meltdown, a crisis that has swept across markets around the world. It has afflicted firms as diverse as top Wall Street banks and small student-loan providers. And while reported losses have topped $40 billion so far, analysts say that figure could climb higher.
Morgan Stanley, a larger rival of Bear Stearns, reported its own multibillion loss Wednesday, one that forced it to sell a stake to a Chinese sovereign wealth fund. Firms like Merrill Lynch that have already reported losses are expected to unveil more next month. Even Goldman Sachs, which reported a modest on Tuesday, has seen its stock fall amid fear that it too could face pain next year.
Bear Stearns said it lost about $854 million, or $6.90 a share, for the fourth quarter, compared to a profit of $563 million, or $4 a share, for the same time last year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a loss of $1.82 a share.
Bear Stearns also said it had written down $1.9 billion of its holdings in mortgages and mortgage-based securities, up from the $1.2 billion it had anticipated last month. As a result of its disastrous results, Bear Stearns said its management will not receive bonuses this year.
The news caps a disastrous year for the investment bank, one of the nation’s largest underwriters of mortgage bonds. Beginning this summer with the housing slowdown, Bear Stearns has stood as the prime example of how Wall Street’s big bet on securities based on risky home loans went south.
While many of its peers, including Merrill, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, have announced far more in devaluations, Bear Stearns draws far more of its profit from its trading operations. That was reflected in its fixed income unit, which reported a net loss of $1.5 billion, down sharply from the $1.1 billion in profit the bank reported for the same time last year.
“We are obviously upset with our 2007 results, particularly in light of the fact that weakness in fixed income more than offset strong and, in some areas, record-setting performance in other businesses,” James E. Cayne, Bear Stearn’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.
The fate of Mr. Cayne, its longtime leader, has been the subject of much speculation on Wall Street since this summer. As two internal hedge funds that had bet on home mortgages begun to crumble, questions about Mr. Cayne’s leadership arose. Reports that he had gone golfing during the worst parts of that crisis.
The investment bank lost so much capital that this fall Bear Stearns formed a partnership with China’s Citic Securities, in which the two firms swapped shares. Though not as drastic as other firms’ measures to shore up capital — Morgan Stanley on Wednesday announced a $5 billion stake sale to China’s sovereign wealth fund, and both Citigroup and UBS made similar deals with Middle Eastern and Asian governments — it was a reflection of how weak Bear Stearns had become.
The firm has also suffered much internal turmoil. Mr. Cayne fired his heir apparent and the man who oversaw those bad bets, Warren J. Spector (pictured), leaving Bear Stearns with an uncertain future. Alan D. Schwartz, who was co-president alongside Mr. Spector, comes from the firm’s investment banking side and is less familiar with its core trading operations.
And those hedge funds are continuing to give the investment bank headaches. Ralph Cioffi, the man who managed the funds, left the firm last week amid reported investigations into whether he improperly withdrew money from those funds before they imploded.
Some of Bear Stearn’s businesses reported gains, but sometimes barely. Its equities trading operation reported net revenues of $381 million, an 11 percent drop from last year.
Its investment banking business, which constitutes a far smaller portion of the firm’s profits than at its larger rivals, reported $205 million in revenues, a 44 percent drop from last year. Even there, the bank felt pain from the debt markets, as lower fees from fixed-income underwriting cut into higher revenues from its financial advisory work.
The firm’s global clearing services reported revenues of $276 million, a modest 2 percent gain from the same time last year. Its wealth management business showed some of the same gains made across the industry, posting revenues of $272 million, or up 10 percent from last year.
Bear Stearns’ return on equity, a measure of how efficiently the firm is using its capital in its own trades, dropped to negative 29.1 percent, down steeply from 20.5 percent last year.
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/20/bear-reports-steep-but-expected-4th-quarter-loss/index.html?ex=1355893200&en=e601e142f0a1ab41&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Fannie, Freddie Chiefs See Tough 2008
December 11, 2007 - 5:27pm
By MARCY GORDON
AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The chief executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Tuesday warned their ailing mortgage-finance companies will suffer further in 2008 due to a weakening housing market and rising home-loan defaults.
Freddie's CEO, Richard Syron, said the government-sponsored company could lose an additional $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion over the next few years from soured home loans.
"I honestly think it's going to get tougher before it gets better," Syron said in a discussion with financial analysts in New York. His company has already logged about $4.5 billion in projected losses during the first nine months of this year.
Freddie's shares fell $3.73, or 10.6 percent, to finish at $31.31 in trading Tuesday.
Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd, also meeting with analysts at the conference, forecast "a very tough 2008" and continued weakness in home prices through 2009. Mudd called the wave of defaults and foreclosures this year the worst mortgage crisis "in recent memory."
The Washington-based company, which lost $1.4 billion in the third quarter, sold $7 billion in preferred stock last week to raise capital to stabilize its finances. Mudd said Tuesday that Fannie had no further plans for such sales over the next year.
Mudd said the company could raise additional capital, however, through sales of mortgage investment holdings, increased fees on mortgages and other measures.
Syron said that while the mortgage crisis has brought a rising wave of foreclosure notices into public view, less evident have been "pictures of people standing with furniture on the lawn" after being forcibly evicted from their homes. "As that begins to happen, and it will happen, I am afraid of the impact that this has."
The chief executives' remarks came a day after Freddie and Fannie said they would change their criteria for purchasing delinquent home loans they've guaranteed, in order to reduce the number they buy from investors.
On Tuesday, McLean, Va.-based Freddie announced it was imposing a 0.25 percent fee on all new home loans it buys or guarantees with settlement dates starting March 9, matching an earlier move by Fannie. On a $300,000 mortgage, the new fee translates to an extra $750, which is expected to be passed on to homeowners, though the companies aren't saying. Both companies have begun adding surcharges on loans to borrowers with credit scores below 680 and who are borrowing more than 70 percent of the home's value.
A new plan orchestrated by the Bush administration to help distressed homeowners with a five-year freeze in mortgage rates, provides the relief only to borrowers with credit scores below 660.
Fannie and Freddie, which together own or guarantee around two-fifths of U.S. home-mortgage debt, have cut their dividends and sold billions of dollars of special stock recently to buttress their finances after posting stunning third-quarter losses. They have been forced to set aside billions of extra dollars to account for bad home loans, eroding their profits at a time when home prices are falling and defaults are spiking on high-risk mortgages made to borrowers with weak credit histories.
Shares of Fannie, the No. 1 financer and guarantor of U.S. home loans, declined $2.62, or 7.1 percent, to $34.29.
The two companies traditionally have been a major source of funding for the home-loan market by buying up mortgages made by banks and other lenders and then bundling them as securities for sale to investors. They have been under pressure to step up their role to help stabilize the mortgage market during the worst housing slump in more than 20 years.
Freddie lost $2 billion in the third quarter, and Syron said Tuesday that results aren't expected to be any better in the October-December quarter.
"We've reported really ugly numbers; let's face it," Syron said in the meeting with analysts.
Freddie late last month sold $6 billion of preferred stock in a special offering to raise capital and sliced its quarterly dividend in half, to 25 cents _ its first dividend cut since it became a public company in 1989.
__
On the Net:
Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com
Fannie Mae: http://www.fanniemae.com
(Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
By MARCY GORDON
AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The chief executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Tuesday warned their ailing mortgage-finance companies will suffer further in 2008 due to a weakening housing market and rising home-loan defaults.
Freddie's CEO, Richard Syron, said the government-sponsored company could lose an additional $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion over the next few years from soured home loans.
"I honestly think it's going to get tougher before it gets better," Syron said in a discussion with financial analysts in New York. His company has already logged about $4.5 billion in projected losses during the first nine months of this year.
Freddie's shares fell $3.73, or 10.6 percent, to finish at $31.31 in trading Tuesday.
Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd, also meeting with analysts at the conference, forecast "a very tough 2008" and continued weakness in home prices through 2009. Mudd called the wave of defaults and foreclosures this year the worst mortgage crisis "in recent memory."
The Washington-based company, which lost $1.4 billion in the third quarter, sold $7 billion in preferred stock last week to raise capital to stabilize its finances. Mudd said Tuesday that Fannie had no further plans for such sales over the next year.
Mudd said the company could raise additional capital, however, through sales of mortgage investment holdings, increased fees on mortgages and other measures.
Syron said that while the mortgage crisis has brought a rising wave of foreclosure notices into public view, less evident have been "pictures of people standing with furniture on the lawn" after being forcibly evicted from their homes. "As that begins to happen, and it will happen, I am afraid of the impact that this has."
The chief executives' remarks came a day after Freddie and Fannie said they would change their criteria for purchasing delinquent home loans they've guaranteed, in order to reduce the number they buy from investors.
On Tuesday, McLean, Va.-based Freddie announced it was imposing a 0.25 percent fee on all new home loans it buys or guarantees with settlement dates starting March 9, matching an earlier move by Fannie. On a $300,000 mortgage, the new fee translates to an extra $750, which is expected to be passed on to homeowners, though the companies aren't saying. Both companies have begun adding surcharges on loans to borrowers with credit scores below 680 and who are borrowing more than 70 percent of the home's value.
A new plan orchestrated by the Bush administration to help distressed homeowners with a five-year freeze in mortgage rates, provides the relief only to borrowers with credit scores below 660.
Fannie and Freddie, which together own or guarantee around two-fifths of U.S. home-mortgage debt, have cut their dividends and sold billions of dollars of special stock recently to buttress their finances after posting stunning third-quarter losses. They have been forced to set aside billions of extra dollars to account for bad home loans, eroding their profits at a time when home prices are falling and defaults are spiking on high-risk mortgages made to borrowers with weak credit histories.
Shares of Fannie, the No. 1 financer and guarantor of U.S. home loans, declined $2.62, or 7.1 percent, to $34.29.
The two companies traditionally have been a major source of funding for the home-loan market by buying up mortgages made by banks and other lenders and then bundling them as securities for sale to investors. They have been under pressure to step up their role to help stabilize the mortgage market during the worst housing slump in more than 20 years.
Freddie lost $2 billion in the third quarter, and Syron said Tuesday that results aren't expected to be any better in the October-December quarter.
"We've reported really ugly numbers; let's face it," Syron said in the meeting with analysts.
Freddie late last month sold $6 billion of preferred stock in a special offering to raise capital and sliced its quarterly dividend in half, to 25 cents _ its first dividend cut since it became a public company in 1989.
Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com
Fannie Mae: http://www.fanniemae.com
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=111&pid=0&sid=1308382&page=2
Auto-loan delinquencies are rising, as are interest rates
By Jeffrey Mccracken and Gregory Zuckerman
The Wall Street Journal
Mon, Dec. 10, 2007
First came housing loans and the subprime-mortgage crisis.
Now signs of stress are creeping into another key consumer area: auto loans.
Delinquencies in the auto-loan market are ticking up to their highest level in several years.
Lenders are tightening terms in some cases, and interest rates have risen from the rock-bottom levels of a few years ago.
About 4.5 percent of auto loans made in 2006 to top-rated borrowers were at least 30 days delinquent at the end of September, up from 2.9 percent the previous month, according to a Lehman Bros. survey of companies servicing these loans.
That is the biggest one-month jump in at least eight years. Lehman says 12 percent of subprime borrowers, who have poorer credit records, were delinquent on their 2006 auto loans as of September. That is the most since 2002 and up from 11.1 percent the previous month.
"The numbers will get worse for auto loans," says Dan Castro of GSC Group, a New York firm that runs debt-related investment funds. "We're starting to see signs of rising losses, and delinquencies are creeping up."
Few in the auto-loan industry see the strain as the kind of disaster in the making that home mortgages have become.
Still, there is a connection between the two categories, as the squeeze on some home borrowers may make it harder to carry car loans. The trouble signs in auto loans suggest that the credit woes could be spreading to the broader economy, a development that has been worrying investors and policymakers in Washington.
Car loans differ from home loans in one crucial way. During 2004-06, many home loans were made to speculators on the assumption that the underlying asset -- the home -- was sure to keep rising in value.
Many people, inspired by fervor in the market, took out home loans that in retrospect they had little hope of paying back.
By contrast, people understand that their cars are destined to lose value. The typical delinquent borrower in a car loan isn't a speculator but someone who became unable to make what previously seemed like a manageable payment.
That is why car delinquencies are closely linked to the economy's health.
"Auto-loan defaults tend to be event-driven, like a job loss or an unexpected healthcare bill or a divorce," said Dan Berce, chief executive of Fort Worth-based AmeriCredit, one of the country's largest subprime auto lenders. "We watch quite closely economic indicators like unemployment rate, weekly job claims or hours worked."
In the quarter ending Sept. 30, AmeriCredit reported net income of $61.8 million, down from $74.2 million the previous year.
It also lowered fiscal 2008 profit projections, blaming poorer-performing 2006 auto loans.
Nationwide, borrowers were at least 30 days behind in the second quarter on 2.77 percent of all auto loans made by nonbank lenders, according to the American Bankers Association. That was the highest delinquency rate since 1991.
http://www.star-telegram.com/business/story/350747.html
Sallie Shares Plunge After CEO Talks
By ALAN ZIBEL 12.19.07, 1:59 PM ET
SLM 23.52 - 5.35
WASHINGTON -
Shares of Sallie Mae plunged to a five-year low Wednesday after the student lender's CEO said a dividend cut may be needed to bolster finances crimped by rising loan defaults and borrowing costs.
In the wake of a failed $25 billion buyout and a reduced profit forecast for 2008, Sallie Chairman and CEO Albert L. Lord tried to calm investors during a conference call. But analysts expressed dissatisfaction with Lord's answers, or lack of them, to their questions.
A group of investors led by private-equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. reneged on its offer to buy Sallie - and brushed off Sallie's attempt to revive the transaction at a lower price - in part because of a new law that reduces federal subsidies on student loans.
Last week, Sallie, formally known as SLM Corp., slashed its profit forecast by more than 13 percent, blaming the revised subsidy law and the need to hold onto more cash to offset bad student loans.
Shares of Reston, Va.-based Sallie fell $5.63, or 19 percent, to $23.24, far below the $60-per-share offer made in April by the Flowers group.
Despite the company's financial weakness and falling stock price, Lord said Wednesday that the company would consider using shares to buy out smaller players in the student lending industry.
"This is a very challenging time," he said. "The goal here is to get out of deal mode, and into the growth mode."
Lord said the company plans to "look at the dividend in the second half of the year," as it seeks to boost its financial cushion.
Analysts voiced frustration with what they considered to be a lack of details from Lord, especially about the company's ability to package student loans into investments. The market for all kinds of risky debt has plummeted as defaults on home loans, credit-card debt, auto loans and student loans have risen.
"We're trying to figure out what your stock is going to be worth and you've got to give us some guidance," one analyst said during the conference call. "You've got to give some numbers."
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst Matt Snowling told clients a research note after the call that "Rather than providing the reassurance and details investors were looking for...(Sallie Mae's) management created more uncertainty."
Snowling, who downgraded the company's shares to "market perform" also lowered his 12-month price target for the stock by $12 per share to $26 per share.
Lord acknowledged investors' displeasure at the start of the call.
"I'm quite aware that on the back end of a failed transaction that there are a lot of unhappy people," said Lord, who gained control of the company in a 1995 proxy contest. "(It's) ironic, because it was originally unhappy shareholders who originally put me in this seat in the first place."
Lord, who assumed the chief executive's seat on Friday and said he plans to stay in the position for at least two years, called his sale of more than 1.2 million shares of company stock to meet margin calls "embarrassing and troublesome to me personally" but not a reflection of diminished confidence in the company's long-term future.
He also pledged to improve the company's credit ratings, which were lowered earlier this year on concerns that buyout would lead the company would take on more debt. Standard & Poor's rates the company's debt 'BBB+,' the third-lowest investment-grade rating.
The failed buyout has landed in court, where Sallie is arguing that the investor group should have to pay a $900 million breakup fee. A trial could start late next year in Delaware Chancery Court.
The flagging financial outlook for the company, which lost $344 million in the third quarter, could bolster the investor group's legal argument - namely, that it shouldn't have to pay a fee for abandoning the deal because of significant changes in economic and regulatory conditions affecting Sallie.
A landmark student-loan law that took effect Oct. 1 cut billions of dollars in federal subsidies for student lenders like Sallie. And defaults are mounting on student loans, while credit-market tremors similar to those linked to the mortgage crisis have begun to show up in the $85 billion student-loan market.
Lord promised more details at an investor meeting in New York in mid-January. However, after numerous aggressive questions, Lord said analysts will "be going through a metal detector" before that meeting.
A company spokesman said that remark was intended as a joke.
Steven Davidoff, a law professor at Wayne State University who has followed the Sallie takeover battle closely, said "it's a bit odd for Lord to go on the stand and not have the information that he knows people are going to ask. He might have been better off just staying home."
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/12/19/ap4458496.html
Sallie, formally known as SLM Corp.
Bond Insurers are in a heap of trouble
Monday December 17, 12:44 pm ET
Shares of Bond Insurers Climb After Moody's Affirms Ratings for Ambac, Assured Guaranty
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of bond insurers climbed Monday after a major credit agency maintained its ratings on Ambac Financial Group Inc., offering hope that the biggest impediment hampering the stocks could soon be eliminated.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday affirmed Ambac's "AAA" financial strength rating. Moody's also maintained its ratings on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and MBIA Inc., though Moody's put a negative outlook on MBIA.
Stocks in the sector have plummeted in the past few months on the prospect of ratings downgrades as Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch Ratings consider whether this year's credit crisis will undermine bond insurers' financial strength.
Few sectors are more reliant on financial strength ratings than bond insurers, as the companies underwrite insurance policies promising to repay bond owners when bond issuers default.
As credit quality deteriorates across the country, investors are worried bond insurers will have to foot the bill for missed payments on bonds and other contracts.
At Friday's close, MBIA's stock was down 62 percent and Ambac's stock was down 74 percent for the year.
Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Steve Stelmach on Monday upgraded Ambac to "Outperform" from "Market Perform," saying it appears the company will manage to maintain enough cash to mollify the credit agencies and keep its rating.
Shares of Ambac Financial jumped $3.41, or 15 percent, to $26.22. The stock is still down 59 percent since the beginning of October.
Shares of MBIA added $1.07, or 3.9 percent, to $28.67. Shares of Assured Guaranty climbed 90 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $25.62. Shares of Security Capital Assurance Ltd. rose 9 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $4.21.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071217/bond_insurers_sector_snap.html?.v=1
S&P Downgrades ACA to Junk Status
Wednesday December 19, 2:06 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer
S&P Downgrades ACA Financial to Non-Investment Grade "CCC" Rating From Investment Grade "A"
NEW YORK (AP) -- A major insurer of bonds was downgraded to "junk" status on Wednesday, a move that could potentially cost banks and local governments billions of dollars.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's slashed its credit rating for bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. to a non-investment grade "CCC" from investment grade "A."
The downgrade of ACA led S&P to cut ratings on nearly 3,000 municipal bonds, which could may spark a municipal borrowing crisis, according to Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital.
"Many municipalities get high credit ratings because their bonds are insured," said Schiff. "Higher borrowing costs for cities will force them charge higher property taxes, which will increase the strain on consumers. And some cities may be shut out of the credit markets."
The new strain on civic funding comes at the same time that plummeting home sales and values and rising mortgage defaults threaten to drain local coffers of property taxes. Many cities have been banking on higher property taxes, but now homes are being valued lower and this also reduces funds available to the cities, he said.
The developments also imperil the already troubled market for securities that use mortgages as collateral. It now is growing more likely that mortgage insurers also will be unable to provide financial backing for home loans, making more problems for homeowners as well as the mortgage-backed securities market, Schiff said.
The downgrade of ACA will essentially not allow it to continue insuring bonds, since most people will not buy insurance on bonds from a firm that does not have top-quality ratings.
Downgrades of bond insurers can also lead to losses at the companies who use them. Only minutes after S&P's downgrade of ACA, CIBC World Markets said insurance for $3.5 billion in securities it holds backed by subprime mortgages may no longer be viable.
"It is not known whether ACA will continue as a viable counterparty to CIBC," the Canadian firm said. CIBC said there is a "reasonably high probability" it will take a large charge for the period ending Jan. 31.
The S&P action on ACA comes amid reports investment banks, including Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos., were in talks to bail out the struggling bond insurer. Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns were not immediately available to comment. ACA did not immediately return calls seeking comment.
As part of a mass review of the bond insurers, S&P also placed Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. on negative credit watch. FGIC currently carries a "AAA" rating. A negative watch means there is a one-in-two chance the rating could be downgraded in the next three months.
Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA Insurance Corp. and XL Capital Assurance Inc. were all placed on a negative outlook by S&P, though their ratings remained unchanged. A negative outlook means there is a one-in-three chance ratings will be cut in the next two years.
Shares of ACA were trading over-the-counter at 54 cents in afternoon trading. ACA shares had traded as high as $16.55 earlier in the year.
AP Business Writers Jeremy Herron and Leslie Wines contributed to this report from New York.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071219/bond_insurers_ratings.html
Analysts forecast C$2bn writedown at CIBC
By Stacy-Marie Ishmael in New York
Sunday Dec 16 2007 14:10
CIBC, Canada's fifth-largest bank, is facing subprime-related writedowns in excess of C$2bn (US$1.97bn) next year, analysts said.
CIBC has already written down almost C$1bn of investments linked to the US mortgage market - more than any other Canadian (NYSE:BCM) bank. Analysts expect it will face more and could even have to realise losses next year.
Earlier this month, Gerry McCaughey, CIBC chief executive, said the bank had "underestimated the extent to which the subprime market might deteriorate and the degree to which that would impact securities that were structured to be very low risk".
CIBC declined to comment on the reports, including one by its own investment banking arm.
Darko Mihelic, at CIBC World Markets, said: "We estimate [it] could lose as much as C$2.4bn pre-tax in the first quarter of 2008".
Mr Mihelic, who has been covering CIBC since 2001, does not have an investment opinion on the stock.
The Toronto-based bank said it had $9.8bn in hedged derivatives contracts linked to American subprime mortgages at the end of its fourth quarter.
These contracts could face "significant'' future losses, the company said.
André-Philippe Hardy, of RBC Capital Markets, said: "CIBC's exposure to collateralised debt obligations backed by assets related to US real estate and residential mortgages is by far the largest of the Canadian banks".
Mr Hardy expected this exposure to result in C$2.3bn in pre-tax writedowns in the first quarter of next year.
Jason Bilodeau at TD Newcrest, expects writedowns of at least C$2.6bn and as much as C$7bn.
In all, the subprime crisis could prove to be a bigger headache for the bank than the collapse of Enron: in August 2005, the bank took a C$2.4bn charge to settle claims related to the failed energy trader.
But CIBC's Mr Mihelic said the bank's problems extended beyond its investments in troubled securities.
About a third of the bank's hedged securities is insured by ACA Capital, according to analysts.
ACA is a single-A rated company, compared with other bond insurers such as MBIA and Ambac, which hold triple-A ratings.
For a fee, such companies agree to repay the interest and principle on insured securities in the event of an issuer default.
In November, after ACA reported a $1bn third-quarter loss, Standard & Poor's said ACA could be downgraded. ACA has said it would not be able to meet collateral requirements if its rating falls below A minus.
If the insurer is downgraded and defaults, CIBC would have to bring all its ACA-guaranteed securities back on to its books.
ACA declined to comment.
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto121620071425008694
Banks in talks about bailout of bond insurer ACA
Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:33am EST
NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch (MER), Bear Stearns (BSC) and other large banks are in talks about bailing out bond insurer ACA Capital Holdings, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing two people briefed on the situation.
The insurer has guaranteed $26 billion in mortgage securities, and its troubles could require the banks to take on billions of dollars in losses they had insured through ACA, the Times reported.
A spokeswoman for Merrill Lynch reached by Reuters declined comment. ACA and Bear Stearns did not immediately return phone calls seeking comment.
A Bear Stearns spokesman told the Times it was a very small creditor and counterparty to ACA. "As such, our exposure is limited," he said.
ACA Capital Holdings lost $1 billion in the most recent quarter and its financial guarantor subsidiary is in danger of losing its key "A" rating from Standard & Poor's. If so, banks that bought credit protection from ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. would have to take back losses from the insurer, the newspaper said.
A large number of counterparties who have derivative contracts with bond insurers would have to take losses on the contracts if the insurers lose their top ratings. One analyst said that could lead to some form of a bailout.
"It does seem to us that the markets have a vested interest in preventing the industry from imploding," wrote CreditSights analyst Rob Haines in a recent report.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Dec. 6 an unidentified A-rated bond guarantor which is at risk of being downgraded had insured $3.5 billion of its subprime holdings. Analysts said Canada's fifth-largest bank would have to take a write-down of up to $2 billion if the guarantor, which they said was ACA, was downgraded.
ACA executives said in a conference call last month that losses on insured collateralized debt obligations would be insignificant.
ACA Capital was delisted by the New York Stock Exchange last week because of a drop in its market capitalization and shareholder equity.
Shares in Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns were both up slightly in early trading on Wednesday. Shares in ACA ACAH.PK, which trade over the counter, rose more than 200 percent to 99 cents.
(Reporting by Dena Aubin; additional reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Tom Hals)
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN1959777920071219
Why Central Banks Are 'Experimenting'
Caught between a credit crunch and inflation fears, the Fed, the ECB, and others are trying new approaches
by Peter Coy
When is the last time "central banker" and "creative" appeared in the same sentence? The conservative guardians of the world financial system aren't exactly known as renegades, but the global credit crunch that originated in the U.S. housing market is forcing them to try things they've never tried before.
This week, the central banks of both Europe and the U.S. took a shot at brand new ways to thaw the freeze in lending between banks. The credit freeze threatens to drag down global economic growth, but it's particularly challenging because it's hitting amid rising concerns that inflation is heating up (BusinessWeek.com, 12/4/07). Economists were impressed by the bankers' willingness to innovate. Says economist Kathleen Stephansen of Credit Suisse (CS): "This really gives a very powerful signal to the market. It shows you the central banks understand that there is a liquidity crunch at the turn of the year that they want to deal with."
Bold Move
On Dec. 18, in an operation that was both huge and unprecedented in its design, the European Central Bank made 16-day loans of $500 billion worth of euros to European banks. The significance of 16 days is that it means the banks won't have to borrow again until after Jan. 1. The banks want to be able to show investors and borrowers that they have plenty of funding in place when they close their books Dec. 31.
Ordinarily the ECB auctions off a certain quantity of money, allowing the banks' demand for that sum to determine the interest rate on it. In this case, the bank simply announced the rate (a low 4.21%) and allowed unlimited borrowing at that rate. It was a bold move because central bankers don't like making open-ended offers of money, but the ECB was determined to quell fears of a money squeeze. "This is a substantial injection of liquidity any way you cut it," says Lewis Alexander, chief economist of Citigroup (C).
The move helped boost stock prices (BusinessWeek.com, 12/18/07), with the Dow Jones industrial average picking up 65 points. Among the strongest gainers were Home Depot (HD), American International Group (AIG), General Motors (GM), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
Loan Slowdown
On Dec. 17, the Federal Reserve auctioned off $20 billion in 28-day loans—again, a period long enough to tide banks over into the new year. Although the Fed's lending was much smaller, it was innovative in its own way. The Fed allowed banks of all sizes, not just the big boys, to participate in the auction. And banks were allowed to post a wide variety of collateral, not just Treasuries and high-rated agency securities. The auction, which was announced a week earlier, was intended to restore confidence in the value of banks' assets and thus revive interbank lending.
The central banks' actions seem to be doing their job of avoiding a yearend liquidity squeeze. However, term rates for interbank lending out into the early months of 2008 remain elevated, showing that the bankers still haven't conquered the credit crunch. And banks still aren't making many loans, says Joshua Feinman, chief economist at DWS Scudder, the mutual fund division of Deutsche Bank Asset Management (DB). "Central banks here, quite frankly, are experimenting. They're in a little bit of uncharted territory," says Feinman.
Bert Ely, a banking consultant in Alexandria, Va., who's known for his irreverent declarations, puts it differently: "These guys are flying by the seat of their pants."
Coy is BusinessWeek's Economics editor.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2007/db20071219_444177.htm?campaign_id=relatedtest_BW
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Living in a Bubble? a massive housing bubble: #msg-26227381 Subprime lenders have been both blessing and bane in the housing industry for many years, enabling lenders to rake in huge profits while saddling consumers with exorbitant loan terms and high interest rates. Now, as the housing market slows to a crawl, many subprime lenders are collapsing faster than homes made of substandard materials, and the signs point to even more pain in the housing market as a result
AHMIQ AMOA ANH C CFC DFCLQ ETFC FBC FHN FMNT FMT FRE HCM IDMCQ IMB IMPM KFN LUMCQ MTB NOVS RAMR SLM SOV TARRQ THMR WB WAMUQ WFC
AHMIQ - American Home Mortgage #board-9990 http://www.americanhm.com
AMC - American Mortgage Acceptance http://www.americanmortgageco.com
ANH - Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. http://www.anworth.com
BAC - #board-6675 Bank of America, "...the second-largest U.S. bank..." http://www.BankofAmerica.com "...the nation's biggest credit card business..."
C - Citigroup Inc. #board-428 "Citigroup, the biggest bank in the United States" http://www.citigroup.com
CFC - Countrywide Financial Corp. #board-9998 ".. the biggest U.S. mortgage lender..."
http://www.countrywide.com "...originated one out of every six residential mortgages..."
DFCLQ - Delta Financial Corp. #board-1894 http://www.deltafinancial.com
ETFC - E TRADE Financial Corp. #board-10096 http://www.etrade.com
FBC Flagstar Bancorp Inc.
FHN First Horizon National Corp
FMNT - Fremont General Corporation #board-10062 http://www.fremontgeneral.com
FNM - Fannie Mae "Together Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee about 40 percent of the $11.5 trillion US home loan market." "Fannie, the No. 1 financer and guarantor of U.S. home loans"
FRE - Freddie Mac "Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for U.S. home loans behind Fannie Mae"
HCM - Hanover Capital Mortgage Holdings Inc. #board-10080 http://www.hanovercapital.com
IMB - IndyMac Bancorp Inc. #board-10092 http://www.indymacbank.com "IndyMac, the nation's ninth largest originator of mortgages" "the second-biggest independent mortgage company"
IMH - Impac Mortgage Holdings #board-10019 http://www.impaccompanies.com
KFN - KKR Financial Corp. #board-10088 http://www.kkrfinancial.com
LEND - Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co #board-8673 http://www.accredhome.com
LUM - Luminent Mortgage Capital Inc. #board-9991 http://www.luminentcapital.com
MTB - M&T Bank Corp . http://www.mandtbank.com
NCC - National City Corp. http://www.nationalcity.com
NOVS - NovaStar Financial Inc. #board-6258 http://www.novastaris.com
RAMR - RAM Holdings Ltd. #board-10081 http://www.ramre.bm
SLM - Sallie Mae
SOV - Sovereign Bancorp
Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE: STD) and Sovereign Bancorp Inc., ("Sovereign") (NYSE: SOV), parent company of Sovereign Bank ("Bank"),
announced today that Banco Santander will acquire Sovereign in a stock-for-stock transaction. Santander currently owns 24.35% of Sovereign's
ordinary outstanding shares.
TARR - Tarragon Corp. #board-5951 http://www.tarragoncorp.com
TMA - Thornburg Mortgage Inc. #board-10082 http://www.thornburgmortgage.com
WB - Wachovia Corp. #board-6206 "...the nation's fourth-largest bank..." http://www.wachovia.com
WM - Washington Mutual Inc. #board-11133 "..the largest U.S. savings and loan.."
"...The nation's second-largest mortgage lender in 2003, WaMu dropped to sixth place last year..." http://www.wamu.com
WFC - Wells Fargo & Company #board-6335 "...the nation's fifth largest bank..." "...Wells Fargo made more than $200 billion in home loans from January to September in 2007, making it the second largest home loan lender, following Countrywide Financial, which is cutting 12,000 jobs after losing $1.2 billion in the third quarter..."http://www.wellsfargo.com
[ [ ] ][] ]
A dollar crisis leading to a depression... http://www.youtube.com/v/HTkPYnNmOBM
Mortgage Meltdown of 2007 - The Perfect storm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGQT9LGL6u0
SIV's explained, lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com
Bond (CDO) insurance companies (ABK MBI ACAH SCA)
] ] ]
Solar Stocks #board-11148
Peak Oil #board-6609
Real Estate Bubble #board-7285
Subprime Fallout #board-10886
HomeBuilders #board-1680
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