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RNC Reports on San Andres 43-101 Reserves
11/7/05 news release
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGe...
Jennings 11/1/05 analyst report
http://www.jenningscapital.com/pdfs/RNC11012005Q305ResultsInLine.pdf
nothing special except the known unknown...
"To fund this [San Andres] transaction, RNC expects to undertake a financing in the near future. The Company will release details of the financing once final arrangements have been made."
Valuation of RNC depends on how many new shares plus warrants, and especially if full or 1/2 warrant issued...
Nothing special.
Appears La Libertad may have escaped the wind, but we don't know yet about the rain/possible flooding... At 10PM Beta was right over La Libertad with maximum sustained winds of 25mph.
from accuweather 10:26PM expert summary:
"As of 10:00 p.m. EST Sunday, Tropical Depression Beta was centered near 12.7 north and 85.3 west, or about 70 miles east-northeast of Managua, Nicaragua. Beta is moving west at about 9 mph. Beta continues to weaken and has maximum sustained winds of 25 mph."
from RNC website:
"La Libertad is located 115 km [69 miles] east of Managua , the capital city of Nicaragua."
Looks like Nicaragua is going to take a direct hit.
Hurricane Beta vs. Hurricane Mitch
Appears to me RNC mines should fare ok (largest risk is at Bonanza = 31K oz/year), given north/northwest current path of Hurricane Beta.
Beta path apparently will not be heading south toward La Libertad (70K oz/yr) & San Andres (80K oz/yr) as Hurricane Mitch did... See chart below for Mitch path. Beta has already missed Cerro Quema Panama (48K oz/yr). And eye of Beta will pass to the west of La Libertad and apparently much further north, so La Libertad also looks ok at this time. San Andres still not out of the woods yet, Beta needs to start tracking more north, and definitely not south.
Beta Path Projected:
Mitch Path Actual:
RNC Mine Locations:
If Beta starts heading south like Mitch, then RNC mines are in trouble..., albeit Mitch was Category 5 while Beta likely to be a strong Category 2.
I wonder what caused that dramatic move on Friday ?
Nicaragua Politics
Nicaraguans Distrust Ortega on Amendments
(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in Nicaragua believe the leader of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) will not keep his word on a commitment recently made to the country’s government, according to a poll by M&R published in La Prensa. 67 per cent of respondents think Daniel Ortega will not wait until after the next election to pursue a series of constitutional amendments.
Nicaragua’s political scene has been unstable since president Enrique Bolaños lost the support of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against former president Arnoldo Alemán. Last year, Alemán—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
In November 2004, PLC and FSLN lawmakers at the National Assembly introduced a series of constitutional reforms that restrict presidential powers, by allowing the legislative branch to ratify, summon and dismiss government ministers. In January, the Central American Court of Justice (CCJ) unanimously ruled that the Nicaraguan legislative branch must not go ahead with the proposed reforms. Bolaños has so far refused to sanction the amendments.
Earlier this month, Bolaños sent a proposal to the legislative branch, seeking to postpone all constitutional amendments until 2007. Ortega has said the FSLN’s 38 lawmakers in the 90-seat National Assembly would support the president’s plan.
The next presidential and legislative election is scheduled for November 2006.
Polling Data
Do you think Daniel Ortega will stand by his commitment to wait until after the next election to pursue a series of constitutional amendments?
Yes
19.3%
No
67.0%
Source: M&R / La Prensa
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 610 Nicaraguan adults, conducted on Oct. 15, 2005. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
Looking better. Will it affect the share price?
RNC Reports Quarterly Production Results
17:08 EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2005
http://tsedb.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/tsx/config&date=20051...
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 12, 2005) -
Not for release in the United States
RNC Gold Inc. (TSX:RNC) today reported quarterly production results from its La Libertad and Bonanza mines in Nicaragua. The La Libertad mine is now operating with a contract miner and during September, the first full month of contract mining, significant progress was made toward improving the amount of material moved.
"September was the best month of the year in terms of the total tonnes moved and was accomplished during the month of highest rainfall," said Randy Martin, Chairman and CEO, RNC Gold Inc. "If the current level of material moved is sustained, La Libertad will be able to produce 70,000 ounces of gold per year."
The progress in September contributed to modestly higher production at La Libertad during the third quarter, as compared to the first half of 2005. The Company's 2005 quarterly production by mine is as follows:
----------------------------------------------------------
La Libertad Bonanza Total
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter 8,269 6,501 14,770
----------------------------------------------------------
2nd Quarter 8,717 7,439 16,156
----------------------------------------------------------
3rd Quarter 10,761 7,844 18,605
----------------------------------------------------------
27,747 21,784 49,531
----------------------------------------------------------
Production figures for the La Libertad mine are detailed below:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Total Total Tonnes
Ore Waste Offloaded Tonnes Per Day
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter 268,706 741,578 276,910 1,287,194 14,302
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Quarter 256,141 749,297 229,810 1,235,248 13,574
---------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Quarter 212,083 772,610 311,889 1,296,582 14,093
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 736,930 2,263,485 818,609 3,819,024 13,989
---------------------------------------------------------------------
September 93,768 345,213 116,828 555,809 18,527
---------------------------------------------------------------------
On a tonnes per day basis, total material moved in September was 32.4% higher than the 2005 monthly average. RNC is discussing with the contractor further improvements for the fourth quarter of 2005 and beyond.
Yamana news today makes one wonder about a possible acquisition of RNC, hopefully no where near the current price...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051011/116108.html?.v=1
Yamana President Peter Marrone was elected a RNC director a few weeks ago. Marrone was a shareholder in RNC prior to being made director per recent SEDI filing, he holds 378,900 shares.
______________
Insider name: Marrone, Peter
Insider's Relationship to Issuer: 4 - Director of Issuer
Security designation: Common Shares
559082 2005-09-06 2005-09-27 Indirect Ownership :
Canaccord Capital Corporation 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 378,900
____________
Would think RNC would be on Yamana list as a takeover at the right price..., and RNC insiders still hold significant ownership % (>20%) so would make bargain price acquisition less likely...?
Interesting speculation..., especially how Marrone just happened to throw out the 250,000/oz per year as the acquisition size, amazing how RNC forecast 2007 annual production meets that target...?
Politics-Encouraging...
Bolanos to remain until term ends in 2006
Nicaragua approves CAFTA
______________________
"Nicaragua's President, Enrique Bolanos, has announced an agreement with the opposition-controlled Congress to end a deepening political crisis.
A power struggle had threatened the government and US aid to the country.
The pact was reached between Mr Bolanos and the left-wing Sandinista leader, Daniel Ortega.
They agreed to delay constitutional reforms which weaken the president's powers until next year, when Mr Bolanos leaves office.
The move comes after the Organisation of American States warned that Nicaragua's democracy was under threat.
Last week, the US deputy secretary of state, Robert Zoellick, threatened to cut off aid if the opposition continued to work against Mr Bolanos."
___________________
Nicaragua's legislature late Monday approved the Central American Free Trade with the United States.
By a vote of 49-37, with three abstentions, lawmakers passed the so-called CAFTA pact, which will take affect after President Enrique Bolanos directs that it be published in the official gazette.
Legislators from the ruling Constitutionalist Liberal Party joined with independents to support the measure, which would eliminate trade barriers between the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.
Those opposed included lawmakers from the leftist Sandinista party, whose leader, Daniel Ortega, has been an outspoken critic of the proposal.
CAFTA's approval will help fulfill "demands of employment, production, health and education for Nicaraguans," said Carlos Noguera, head of a legislative commission charged with studying the proposed agreement.
Industry Secretary Azucena Castillo was even more excited, calling CAFTA "the first document in 20 years that opens the door to Nicaraguan economic revitalization."
"We have to take advantage of it," Castillo said.
The would-be free trade agreement had divided Nicaragua's congress, with lawmakers failing to reach consensus on the measure in sessions past.
Liberal lawmakers first said their voting bloc would support the measure, then pledged to vote against it.
In recent months, the party has formed an alliance with its traditional foes, the Sandinistas, in an attempt to undermine Bolanos. The president is a Constitutionalist Liberal, by angered many in his own party by leading an anti-corruption campaign against his predecessor, former president Arnoldo Aleman.
The U.S. Congress approved CAFTA following a bruising political battle, and President George W. Bush signed it into law in August.
Bush and other CAFTA proponents say the deal will benefit both the United States and Central America, by opening the region wider to U.S. goods and services and lowering obstacles to investment in the region, as well as strengthening protections for intellectual property.
Critics of the measure say it would cost U.S. jobs, particularly in the sugar and textile industries, while poor Central American nations would not be able to compete with U.S. imports.
In particular, opponents are concerned that an increase of imports from U.S. farms will drive Central American subsistence farmers off their land, leading to overcrowding in cities and an increase in illegal immigration to the United States.
__________
Oct 11, 2005 — MANAGUA, Nicaragua (Reuters) - Nicaraguan President Enrique Bolanos and Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega have agreed to postpone controversial constitutional reforms, easing a political crisis that the United States called a "creeping coup."
U.S. ally Bolanos has been under pressure from dissidents in his party and leftist Sandinistas to accept reforms that would weaken him by giving Congress jurisdiction to name officials to some influential posts.
Bolanos said after a six-hour meeting on Monday night with Ortega, a Cold War adversary of Washington who ruled Nicaragua during a 1980s civil war, that the reforms would take effect in 2007, after he finished his five-year presidential term.
"All the constitutional reforms are frozen," he said.
______
MANAGUA, Oct. 10 (Xinhuanet) -- Ruling party representative Alfredo Gomez was appointed Monday as the new vice president of Nicaragua, in a unanimous decision of the National Assembly to replace resigning Jose Rizo.
Gomez, 70, of the ruling Blue-and-White Coalition, obtained the position with 83 votes in favor and none against in a vote by the 93-seat parliament, official sources said.
The new vice president will replace Rizo, a lawyer and one of the founders of the major opposition, the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC).
Rizo, who used to be critical of the decisions of President Enrique Bolanos, resigned as vice president two weeks ago, so that he could run for office on behalf of the PLC in November 2006.
The PLC sent President Bolanos to power in 2002 and then severed ties with him
Gomez, a moderate politician and veterinarian, is a PLC dissident who in 2003 supported the sacking of "liberal" leader and ex-president Arnoldo Aleman, who is under house arrest for 20 years for charges of embezzlement.
But in Monday's voting, Gomez won support from the right-wing PLC. He also won support from left-wing Sandinista Front of National Liberation (FSLN), which is the second most important political force in Nicaragua.
National Assembly President Rene Nunez on Monday took oath from Gomez, who vowed to be faithful to the nation and abide by the Constitution.
Politics-Nice to see Zoellick meeting & discussing issues with Herty...
____________________
US's Zoellick steps into Nicaragua political crisis
Wed Oct 5, 2005 12:33 PM ET
MANAGUA, Nicaragua (Reuters) - Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, stepping into a political crisis in Nicaragua, met a one-time Sandinista loyalist on Wednesday to press U.S. influence in the divided Central American nation.
The discussion with former Managua mayor Herty Lewites, now critical of his former allies, was part of an effort to thwart what Zoellick called a "creeping coup" by Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega and former right-wing president Arnoldo Aleman.
On a two-day visit to Managua, the State Department's number two official has piled pressure on Sandinista and rightist opposition leaders whom Washington accuses of undermining President Enrique Bolanos, a U.S. ally.
He announced that the United States had revoked visas held by Nicaragua's attorney general and Aleman's two adult children and threatened to withhold millions of dollars in aid.
Ahead of Wednesday's meeting, Zoellick said he was eager to meet Lewites "because he stood against the pact," a reference to the unlikely alliance between Aleman's Liberal Party and the Sandinistas.
"I want to get a better sense of his vision and sense of direction," Zoellick said.
Ortega and Aleman's alliance already controls the judicial and legislative branches of government and the conflict has at times threatened to force Bolanos from office.
Ortega, an old adversary of Washington, was Nicaragua's president in the 1980s during a civil war against the U.S.-backed Contra rebels.
U.S. officials have expressed concerns that Ortega, who Washington accused of running a Soviet-backed government during the Cold War, could return to office when elections are held next year.
As he delivered his blunt U.S. message and probed political possibilities, Zoellick also met on Tuesday with Eduardo Montealegre and Jose Alvarado, two Liberal Party politicians now at odds with their party.
Like Lewites, they have expressed interest in running for president and are trying to decide if it is practical without a major political party behind them, a U.S. official said.
The U.S. diplomat also met leaders of the Moviemiento para Nicaragua, an activist group that has organized pro-democracy demonstrations.
Afterward, members praised the interventionist U.S. approach to Nicaragua's political crisis and Zoellick's support for new political players.
"Both the left and right need new options in which they can compete democratically for power and to open new spaces," Rhina Cardenal, a prominent television personality and Moviemiento member, told Reuters.
"We have a strong left wing current in Nicaragua, but if the only choice they have is with Ortega's party, where do they go? The same thing from the right ... We need choices," she said.
Nicaragua Politics
US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick arrived in Nicaragua yesterday...
______
Why is congress being accused of trying to oust Bolanos?
Two of Mr Bolanos' ministers and three senior officials have been stripped of their immunity from prosecution so they can be investigated for alleged campaign funding irregularities.
Mr Bolanos himself faces having his immunity removed and possibly an impeachment. Congress is also debating constitutional reforms limiting the president's power, despite a ruling by the Central American Court of Justice which declared them inapplicable.
The president has said he will view any attempt to impeach him as a coup against his government.
Has Mr Bolanos received any support?
Nicaragua's Central American neighbours and the Organization of American States have expressed their concern over the crisis and backed the Nicaraguan president.
Visiting the country in October 2005, US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick demanded that Nicaraguan politicians halt their efforts to topple Mr Bolanos and reach an agreement with the government.
Why has the US stepped in?
Nicaragua is due to hold general elections next year. Observers say that Washington - which has expressed its unconditional backing to the Bolanos government - is concerned about the possibility of the Sandinistas returning to power. The Sandinistas were voted out of office in the 1990 presidential elections, after a 10-year civil war against the US-backed Contras.
If President Bolanos is ousted, what would the consequences for Nicaragua be?
Nicaragua could face isolation. The US has said that if Bolanos and his aides are impeached, this would immediately rule out a $175m US grant to Nicaragua and possibly $4bn of debt relief. The country could also lose its membership of Cafta, the Central American Free Trade Agreement which brings together the US and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.
There could also be consequences for Nicaragua's opposition leaders. Aleman's supporters could be barred from travelling to the US and other countries. This is a specially sensitive issue, because many Liberal Party members fled to the US or sent relatives there after the leftist Sandinista revolutionaries forced the Anastasio Somoza regime from power on 19 July 1979.
Last part bolded only because I could never quite figure out why US was suspending US Visas for Aleman's daughter and other Liberal Party members and what leverage this gave USA, now I understand... Well, in any event, RNC is Canadian company so let's hope USA actions not relevant to RNC...
I have a suspicion that the new RNC PP will be at C$.70 judging by the recent trading... We'll see.
RNC Possibly Most Leveraged Listed Junior Producer to Gold
By David J. DesLauriers
26 Sep 2005 at 08:40 PM EDT
DENVER (ResourceInvestor.com) -- When investors buy gold shares, especially the shares of junior producers, it is usually because they believe in the fundamentals of the metal first and foremost, and believe that gold is going higher.
With that in mind, the wise investor chooses vehicles that will do well at the current gold price, but that will far exceed their peers in share price performance if gold does what Goldcorp’s [TSX:G; NYSE:GG] CE Ian Telfer has recently suggested, i.e. if the yellow metal breaks out to $800 an ounce in the next two years.
Resource Investor was able to catch up to RNC Gold [TSX:RNC] Vice President of Finance and company founder Tom Lough, and learned that the company, which has been badly beaten in the market of late, is starting to turn things around.
Because RNC has several operations and two new mines nearing production, it is easiest to tackle the important questions in point form.
Why have RNC shares been beaten up by the market? Because they disappointed on their La Libertad production forecasts, but the issue was not grade or recoveries – simply that they could not move enough tonnage to the leach pads because they didn’t have enough equipment. This has been solved by the appointment of a contract miner.
Some investors associate the RNC assets with the fall of Greenstone in the late 90s and this has caused some wariness, but higher gold prices and a new look at the various mine plans are solving those problems.
RNC needs approximately $25 million to put their Cerro Quema and San Andreas projects back into production, and the company is currently pursuing its financing options, which should be a mixture of equity and debt. It is a possibility that some hedging would be required but likely would amount to only a small portion of the overall production profile.
Because some out of the money warrants are set to expire in December, RNC presently only has about 49 million shares fully diluted (of which management owns 20%), and a market cap of roughly C$30 million.
RNC’s operations are in Honduras, Nicuragua and Panama, and the company believes that it has the best land package in Central America. The company is seasoned in dealing with relations on the ground, and RNC has contracts in place with the local communities, so the Bishops and anti-mining NGOs shouldn’t be a serious worry.
RNC plans to grow its reserves, and thus its cash flow multiple by focusing on the strong exploration potential and substantial land packages around each of its mines.
The fun part for investors is that if one assumes a debt/equity mix for Cerro Quema and San Andreas, RNC will at most have 100 million shares fully diluted, and at a current share price of C$0.62, a very small market capitalization for a company which expects to produce about 220,000 ounces of gold per annum in 2007.
What is more, for those who are seeking leverage, with cash costs of around $260, there is plenty of it. A little bit of back of the envelope math reveals the upside: Let’s assume 100 million shares f/d (on the high side) and $300 per ounce cash costs, higher than RNC’s projects $260:
At $450 gold, RNC cash flows $33 million or 33 cents per share using the discounted scenario which would put the stock at anywhere from C$2 to C$3.30 per share.
At $550, RNC cash flows $55 million or 55 cents a share resulting in a share price of anywhere from C$3.30 to C$5.50.
And at $800 gold, a number being bandied about these days, RNC cash flows $110 million or C$1.10 per share and with a mania and higher multiples RNC would be anywhere from C$10-C$15 per share.
It is a fun exercise to be sure, but it illustrates the leverage. At the high end of the estimate, RNC is a 24 bagger from here.
Conclusion
The key to this story is leverage and Tom Lough believes that RNC provides an unmatched combination of production and growth at the price. This is a story that is making its way back, and if management can deliver on production and timing, the risk to reward is unbelievable, especially for those who are big believers in the future performance of the gold price.
Politics-Nicaraguans Worried About Electoral Fraud/ CAFTA
________________________
Key to RNC Nicaragua mine operations is a free and fair election. Ortega winning still a possibility, but a free & fair election is even more critical to Nicaragua/RNC. If Ortega wins in free & fair election, then so be it. Lewites (former Sandanista) is clearly frontrunner and would likely be much better for Nicaragua as this would end El Pacto of Aleman/Ortega.
Appears CAFTA will be passed by Nicaragua. Lewites in support of CAFTA and talking to business interests...
_______________________
Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in Nicaragua believe next year’s ballot might not be entirely free and fair, according to a poll by M&R published in La Prensa. 74.8 per cent of respondents think there is a risk of electoral fraud in the upcoming election.
In the 1996 ballot, Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) candidate Arnoldo Alemán defeated former president Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) with 48.7 per cent of all cast ballots. While Ortega alleged that the vote had been fraudulent, a group of international observers led by former United States president Jimmy Carter declared that "the election didn’t have any degree of fraud that would subvert the decision of the Nicaraguan people."
In 2001, PLC candidate Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The president lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against Alemán. Last year, the former head of state—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
The independent Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) is in charge of organizing all ballots and referendums in the Central American nation. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2006.
Polling Data
Do you think there is a risk of electoral fraud in the upcoming elections?
Yes
74.8%
No
17.8%
No opinion
7.4%
Source: M&R / La Prensa
____________________
Opposition to CAFTA wanes in Nicaragua
Despite the country's leftist past, backers of the trade pact have gained ground.
By Danna Harman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
MANAGUA, NICARAGUA - Marching down Universidad Avenue toward congress came thousands of protesters, throwing their fists into the heavy, humid air, waving anti-American placards. The demonstration against the proposed Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) earlier this month was expected to be about 20,000 people strong.
In fact, more like 4,000 people showed up.
In a country that spent a good number of the last 25 years battling US interests here, the predictable opposition to CAFTA has, in fact, been a little weaker - and the support for the trade pact broader and deeper - than expected.
Just down the street from the Managua protest, another scene - less bombastic, but arguably more significant - was playing out at the Crowne Plaza hotel. Eleven presidents of Nicaragua's chambers of industry sat in a vast air-conditioned room below a sign that read: "Yes to economic development, yes to CAFTA."
This summer, President Bush expended hefty political capital to get the controversial trade agreement passed. Four of the six co-signatories have already ratified it: the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Panama, and Guatemala. Costa Rica's labor unions, with monopolies in energy, telecom, and insurance are blocking its ratification.
In Nicaragua, the argument is more emotional, touching on the economic plight of central America's poorest country, its leftist past, and its troubled relationship with the US. And as the debate plays out, ratification of the agreement is stalled in Nicaragua's congress.
Eric Jacobstein, an expert on trade issues at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington, says CAFTA is "being used [by Nicaraguan politicians] as a way to express other issues ... not only as a way to oppose the US, but to gain political leverage." Still, he forecasts that despite arguments ahead, CAFTA will eventually pass in Nicaragua.
People like Juan Carlos Pereira, a Harvard Business School-educated Nicaraguan, says CAFTA can bring much-needed jobs to the country, which is way behind other Central American nations when it comes to investment. Honduras and El Salvador each export some $2 billion worth of apparel a year for example. Nicaragua is closer to $600 million. "We lost a decade in the '80s because of the war," says Mr. Pereira. "We are only now starting to catch up and we need CAFTA more than anyone else."
Pereira, who runs Pro-Nicaragua, a government-backed organization that seeks to attract investment says about $400 million worth of projects have come through his office. "That represents about 7,500 jobs that are coming to Central America. I don't know how many will come to Nicaragua, but I will tell you - if we don't have CAFTA, not a single one will come here," he says.
CAFTA's cheerleaders here also point out that Asian countries - which are increasingly inking trade deals in the region - will be more inclined to invest in a country with easy access to the US market and a binding commitment to intra-regional trade.
Helena Telles Bermuder, a hairdresser with three kids, could not make ends meet, she says, before she got a job at a new maquiladora (manufacturing plant) in Granada. Today she sews jeans for Woolworth's and other brands, and makes about $175 a month, almost double the minimum wage here. It's about three times more than she was earning before. "I don't understand the economics," she admits. "But I understand jobs. And if CAFTA can help me get one - I am for it."
Nicaragua's dire need for economic gains is beyond dispute. About 78 percent of Nicaraguans live in poverty - on less than $2 a day, according to Adolfo Acevedo, an economist in Managua.
But some economists like Mr. Acevedo question whether CAFTA will help or hurt. Even without CAFTA, he points out, 80 percent of Nicaraguan production is already allowed into the US without tariffs. The trade pact may encourage more investment in maquiladoras in Nicaragua, but he wonders out loud whether it will offset the farm jobs likely to be lost as cheap US agricultural produce sweeps into the country.
"We can't all work in maquiladoras," says Acevedo, "You need basic education. The maquiladoras and those higher-end plans don't signify any development at all for the masses."
Former president and Sandinista party leader Daniel Ortega's case against CAFTA is that the US is seeking to exploit the poorest countries to get the cheapest labor. More than that, it is a piece of geopolitical opportunism: "Bush is taking up CAFTA because it is his way of keeping central America from looking south," he said in an interview, suggesting Washington is seeking to splinter Nicaragua's solidarity with the Left in Latin America such as Hugo Chavez's government in Venezuela.
Politics, no doubt, will be central to CAFTA's fate in Nicaragua. But, ironically enough, the politics that will count will be the internal workings of Ortega's own Sandinista party - made up, these days, of an increasing number of businessmen.
In fact, one significant sighting at the Crowne Plaza was this: Herty Lewites, a longtime comrade of Ortega's in the Sandinista party who is now running against him for president in 2006, was in attendance at the meeting of business leaders. "Like it or not, CAFTA is coming," said Lewites, who is running first in the Nicaraguan polls. "If we are clever, we can ask for some adjustments - but rejecting it is wrong."
• Ms. Harman is Latin America bureau chief for the Monitor and USA Today.
Yeah, stupid is exactly how I feel. I doubled down in the .70s, but was chicken to add any more below that. If I was thinking rationally I would have realized that there was less and less risk as the price got lower. At 40 cents there was very little downside. RNC is a producer - not some explorer that can go to zero. The only way RNC goes to zero is if Ortega gets elected and does a Chavez.
Speaking of Chavez, doesn't he realize you are supposed to let the foreigners build the mine, then you nationlize it.
I think I called the bottom at .33 but didn't buy any. That was really stupid.
"That is looking pretty good now, but my average cost is still in the red. I suppose pennies will not matter much in a couple of years when gold is around $600, and this stock is trading in the $5 to $10 range." well said OriginalFred. i have been buying at .45, .55 and now more at .65. added 70% to my original position but still in the red - breakeven now at 1.06$C. and pennies will not matter when we sell for 4 bucks - my first target? as AGI was selling for the low 4's high 3's when gold was just over 400$US. i figure we will have a 4 banger just to get this puppy up where it should be for its potential - the hiring of people for the operations end should be good news as is seeing the bottom here now. risk is reduced now let the profits run.
buyout? dunno, wouldnt oppose it if it is for the right price, tho the price would have to be attractive to the buyer as well. i suppose i would take "quat pieces chaque" as they say here in quebec, if its in shares of a good miner and soon.
hi ho hi ho
its off to work we go
jon
My low buy was US$.29. That is looking pretty good now, but my average cost is still in the red. I suppose pennies will not matter much in a couple of years when gold is around $600, and this stock is trading in the $5 to $10 range.
Can't believe I didn't buy some at the lows. Seems like such an obvious capitulation point in retrospect. Hey, I could be a brilliant trader just by doing exactly the opposite of what my instincts suggest.
much better than the alternative...
"RNC is going up !!"
RNC is going up !!
Politics- Walking around money, Lewites needs a bit
_________________________
Remember Daniel Ortega? He's back.
By Danna Harman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
EL JICARAL, NICARAGUA - Little seems to have changed in this small rural village in the past two decades: women are down by the river doing their washing, cattle are roaming among the cacti, cowboys are drinking beer at the canteen, and Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega is in the town square, holding forth on the evils of capitalism and the United States.
"The US no longer rules Latin America!" Mr. Ortega thunders into the dark night. "The Yankees no longer rule Nicaragua!" The small crowd of farmers hoist their black and red Sandinista flags high and chant: "Daniel, Daniel!"
Fifteen years after unexpectedly being voted out of power, and with two unsuccessful runs for the presidency since, the iconic head of the Marxist Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) is back on the campaign trail. Ortega, a name many US officials had hoped to consign to the history books, has a fighting chance of returning to power.
Just staying in the running has looked doubtful for Ortega at times. His credibility has taken a beating since he signed a self-serving pact in 1999 with political rival and former President Arnoldo Aleman, now serving a 20-year sentence for embezzlement; his grown-up stepdaughter accused him in 1998 of abusing and raping her for years; and his former comrade-in-arms Herty Lewites is now running against him, mounting the first serious challenge to his leadership from within the Sandinista ranks.
But despite it all, Ortega says he is confident the November 2006 elections will put him back in the presidential palace. Even his critics say divisions within the ruling party, coupled with Ortega's grip on the electoral machine, make his resurrection possible. "Conditions are ripe for triumph," says Ortega in a late-night interview in Managua. "We will win, and we will wield great power here."
Washington, which backed the contra rebels in a civil war against Ortega's government of the 1980s until he lost the 1990 election, is none too pleased with the prospect. After toppling the Somoza family dictatorship in 1979, Ortega's Soviet-backed Sandinistas sparked widespread US intervention in Central America to counter what Washington saw as a communist threat in the region.
Roger Noriega, the Bush administration's outgoing top envoy to Latin America (who has called Ortega a "hoodlum"), told the Managua newspaper La Prensa last month that if the Sandinistas returned to power, Nicaragua would "sink like a stone and reach depths such as those of Cuba."
Ortega's democratic credentials "are very doubtful," sniffed US Ambassador Paul Trivelli, taking up his new post in the country this week.
"The triumph of the Sandinistas will raise the morale of Latin America," says Ortega, tapping into the Bush administration's worst fears of a growing left-leaning, populist, anti-American movement on the continent, led by Cuba's Fidel Castro and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. "Other countries will say - 'look, that small country got away with it - so can we!' We will spread the revolution." There is an alternative, he whispers, his voice hoarse from weeks of rallies, "to succumbing to the American Empire."
US interference could backfire
Carlos Fernando Chamorro, a former editor of the Sandinista newspaper Barricada, says too much US interference in the lead up to the election could actually help Ortega. The problem with Washington, he argues, is that they are stuck in the past. "The new right running Latin America policy are all leftovers from the '80s, who still behave like we are in the middle of the cold war," he says. "Every time Washington attacks Ortega, his supporters close ranks."
Otto Reich, a chief architect of President Ronald Reagan's policy against the Sandinistas and today a private consultant, shoots back: "Ortega is a communist, or whatever he calls himself," says Mr. Reich, in a phone interview from Washington. "If he wins, there will be no foreign investment and no US aid." Washington might see the world through '80s glasses, he concedes, but Ortega "...is stuck in the '60s and is acting like a Bolshevik."
Talking to Ortega, or hearing him on the campaign trail, is indeed more history lesson than interview, more nostalgia for the past than concrete plans for the future.
"[President] Bush is the Reagan of these times," Ortega tells a crowd gathered in the scorching sun of Santa Rosa del Pinon, a village in the mountains north of Leon - and immediately segues into tales of days gone by. "Yankee Reagan forbade peace," he rails. "He wanted to bring death and destruction to the region."
Adults cheer, children step forth to receive free FSLN bandannas, and old rebel anthems blare from the loudspeakers. Ortega's wife, revolutionary poet Rosario Murillo, thrusts her thin arms into the air, her bejeweled fingers clenched together in a tight fist.
Everywhere Ortega goes, people circle around him, hugging, kissing - and handing him handwritten notes. Most begin in the same way: "Please, Commandante ..." A young girl in El Jicaral has no school books. An old lady in Masaya needs arthritis medicine. A mother of five in Santa Rosa del Pinon wants shoes for her children - and a new house.
The notes get passed along to a burly man with a gold watch and thick mustache named Chico Lopez, or to Julio Paladino. Mr. Lopez is Ortega's financial officer in charge of "disbursements," Mr. Paladino, a handsome man with a big black bag, is the Sandinista leader's doctor, in charge of prescriptions. Some requests are handled on the spot - 300 cordoba ($17) for clothes here, 200 ($11) for medicine there. Larger requests - for scholarships, say, or operations - are dealt with later, back at headquarters in Managua.
Nicaragua remains one of the poorest countries in an impoverished region. The money disbursed, says Lopez, is all from donations. "We are the only ones who consistently help the people," says Paladino as he checks someone's distended stomach behind the stage. "This is what Daniel is about and that is whyhe is loved."
And yet for all these pronouncements, and US anxiety, analysts here say Ortega's political future is far from assured.
A poll done this month by B&A, a regional company based in Costa Rica, shows Ortega, with 20 percent of the vote, lagging behind both Eduardo Montealgre, a right-center candidate with 23 percent of the vote, and Mr. Lewites, with 35 percent.
Lewites, the former mayor of Managua, was expelled from the Sandinista Party when he announced his intention to run for president. Ortega canceled his challenger's permits to hold political rallies, forbade him to use Sandinista Party symbols, and accused him of corruption.
New regional mood of 'lite left'
Central America, unlike South America, is actually moving away from left-wing anti-Americanism, says Victor Borge, director of B&A. Upcoming elections in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Honduras are all expected to be won by moderates, he says. "If Ortega manages to come to power in 2006," he adds, "...it would indeed symbolically be a big deal and might motivate other leftists. But that does not seem in tune with the mood in the region."
Lewites calls the new mood "lite left," and it is one he subscribes to. Lewites says he does not share Ortega's singleminded obsession with the US - but neither is he running to Washington for validation. "I think we should maintain good relations with the US. We need each other," he says. "I will be respectful, but firm."
If elections are fairly run, says Lewites, he is confident of victory. But will they be fair? "Of course not," he responds. Thanks to his pact with [former president] Aleman, Ortega all but controls the parliament, the supreme court, and the electoral commission, he adds.
Ortega, too, says is worried about cheating in the elections - but a different kind. "Elections in Nicaragua are not normal elections - they are a confrontation between the US and the Sandinista front," he says, concluding the interview and heading into a midnight meeting. "The US will do anything to decimate us," he says. "But we are here."
FWIW, I calculate 130M fully diluted shares using your assumptions, so your 121M shares is materially accurate.
RNC is likely exploring debt, convertible debenture, sale and leaseback of La Libertad/Panama plant and equipment assets, hedging under 1 year gold production, outright sale of Picachos to NWT at large discount, etc. Seems possible these alternatives could raise at least half the US$20M, much more if RNC hedges 1 year gold production.
Let's assume half raised via alternative financing, thus funding would be for US$10M. Using C$.44/US$.37 for PP financing with 1/2 warrant yields 43.5M new fully diluted shares (29M new shares and 14.5M new warrants after broker 7%discount). Adding 48.5M existing fully diluted shares (not including C$2.50 warrants) would yield 92M fully diluted shares. This seems achievable, but we will have to see...
Best case would be RNC raising US$15M via hedging/debt/asset sales, and RNC management exercising their 25% ($5M) via internal private placement without any warrants, thus only 14.5M additional fully diluted shares + 48.5M existing = 63M total fully diluted. Don't hold your breath expecting this...!!!
Thus we can expect fully diluted shares to be:
Worst case = 130M
Median case = 92M
Best case = 63M
lets run the numbers: 49 million share fully diluted. 9million warrents expire in dec 2005 at 2.50 - probably expire worthless. another 700000- october 2005 at 2.00 - probably expire worthless. almost 6 million april 2006 at 2.50 - probably expire worthless but wouldnt it be great if they were not worthless by april? enuf dreamin - lets get real! that means that almost 16 million warrents will not ever be exercised. that means about 33 million shares. lets say worst case scenario - equity financing for 20 million dollars US or 24 million $C. financing at .40 / share will give us 58 million shares in the PP. plus 1/2 warrent gives fully diluted of 88 million. plus the 33 million outstanding now gives 121 million shares.
a close comparison is AGI AGI has 95 million shares fully diluted selling for 4.70 (wed sept 14 close) or a market cap of 446 million dollars Canadian. 446/121 yields a target of 3.68$C/share - quite a bit above the share price now no? from todays share price of .43 - thats an 8 banger from here.
or how about DSM - 111 million shares fully diluted selling for 2.06 (sept 14 close) makes a market cap of 229 million dollars. 229/121 yields a target of 1.88$C or more than a 4 banger from here.
now i know the market gives a premium to good management and RNC doesnt qualify in that regard, but doesnt the hiring of peter marrone qualify as a step in that direction? of course it does but the others are not gone yet either. a good spec from here and could get better if there is a 50/50 split with debt equity financing no?
hi ho hi ho
its off to work we go
jon
Updated Presentation-Sept 2005
http://www.rncgold.com/downloads/factSheet.pdf
well the market apparently liked the news release. BIG gap from .35 to .425$C (how does 425$C sound? sounds good to me!) looks like many folks were only too eager to use this as a selling opportunity. i suspect that many more will be ready to dump tomorrow and next week as well. i expect that the gap will be filled sooner rather than later. then there is tax loss selling, and im sure that there will be a bunch of folks tax lossing too. however im more convinced than ever that at .40 this puppy is highly leveraged to gold and will fly with 500 POG. the situation here reminds me of the situation with SPM, which seemingly has found its (double) bottom and now is steadily rising as production nears. in the midst of despair is found the greatest opportunity, but without hope we cant see thru despair.
hi ho hi ho
its off to work we go
jon
Need to verify further, but my understanding is La Libertad mine contractor is operating 7 days per week. Thus, lets assume 90 days in quarter for now.
Thus, 2.25M total tonnes of ore, waste, and spent for quarter using end of Aug run rate vs. 1.7M total tonnes in 1Q04 (best quarter in RNC recent history). (25K per day * 90 days = 2.25M)
Thus, 315K total tonnes of ore to leach pad vs. 369K in 1Q04 (best quarter in RNC recent history, again using end of Aug run rate. (3,500 * 90 days=315K). Ore to leach pad was 256K in 2Q05.
This new contract miner for digging and hauling @ La Libertad is exceeding all my expectations... Results for 3Q05 will likely be unimpressive given poor July & Aug before contract miner got going in full gear. However, results for 4Q05 may well be best in RNC history in terms of ore delivered to leach pad if contract miner keeps up this pace. Remember, there is a 90 day on/off leach pad cycle, so actual gold production will take until 1Q06 for gold on leach pad to convert to actual gold production ounces.
Also, note that average grade @ La Libertad was about 1.75 for 2004, 1.39 for 1Q05 and 1.89 for 2Q05. Current grade per press release is 2.0 grams per tonne so this will impact gold production from leach pads favorably.
Data used from press release to support analysis above:
"By month's end, the contractor was moving, on average, 25,000 tonnes of ore, waste and spent ore per day which approximates the production target of 27,0000 tonnes of material per day...and by month's end approximately 3,500 tonnes of ore per day were being delivered to the leach pads... The grade of ore to the leach pads since August 13 has averaged approximately 2.0 grams per tonne."
Well, well, well... looks like there's cause for optimism after all...
Call me crazy, but I "bought on the news" this AM... they say buy on rumour, sell on news -- since I never heard any rumour, I'll just buy on the (great) news.
Back of the envelope: $22.5 million for 360,000 (projected) ounces at San Andreas works out to about $70/oz.
Nice leverage to the POG... highly accretive to NAV... and a solid director added.
43-101 study to be completed in "near future"...
We need to better understand the contract mining stats at La Libertad. This potentially could be the best news of all:
"By month's end, the contractor was moving, on average, 25,000 tonnes of ore, waste and spent ore per day which approximates the production target of 27,0000 tonnes of material per day...and by month's end approximately 3,500 tonnes of ore per day were being delivered to the leach pads."
How many work days in a quarter... Here are the Quarterly Stats:
RNC Des Des Des Des Des Des
La Libertad 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05
Ore Mined 368,729 332,985 270,159 302,058 268,706 256,141
Waste 892,795 1,064,032 625,420 655,236 741,578 749,297
Total Mined 1,261,524 1,397,017 895,579 957,294 1,010,284 1,005,438
Strip 2.42 3.20 2.32 2.17 2.76 2.93
Grade 1.77 1.7 1.63 1.9 1.39 1.89
Spent Ore 404,943 366,026 323,979 276,910 229,810
The total tonnes of material @ 25,000 tonnes per day appears a nice improvement from most recent quarters (25,000 * 64 assumed work days = 1.6M tonnes vs. 1.3M in 1Q and 1.2M in 2Q). The ore to the pads, however, appears low @ 3,500 tonnes per day (3500 * 64 assumed work days = 224K tonnes vs. 269K tonnes in 1Q and 256K in 2Q).
I also thought this was the best piece of news for RNC in a long time.
News Release-Well, thanks for posting, just finished reviewing this press release, it is very positive, IMO. Will have to review and reaccess, the only negative is the Canaccord financing of the San Andres deal, but this appears a great deal for $22.5M which includes the extinguishment of $5.5M debt. Completion of transaction scheduled for Nov 30 and subject to financing which is apparently being arranged by our good friends at Canaccord...
More later...
_____________________________
RNC to Acquire the San Andres Gold Mine
16:21 EDT Wednesday, September 07, 2005
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Sept. 7, 2005) -
Not for release in the United States
RNC Gold Inc. (TSX:RNC) today announced the following developments:
i) Signed a letter of intent to acquire the producing San Andres gold mine;
ii) Successfully converted to contract mining at the La Libertad mine; and
iii) Peter Marrone has joined the Board of Directors
These developments are designed to reposition RNC as a significant gold producer in Latin America with operations in three countries and strengthen the corporate presence of the company.
"The planned acquisition of San Andres provides RNC with a mine that has a proven track record of production. San Andres will strengthen RNC's production base and position the Company for further growth," said Randy Martin, Chairman and CEO. "I am also pleased to announce that the preliminary results from the use of a contract miner at La Libertad are in line with our expectations and am delighted to welcome Peter Marrone to our Board of Directors".
In agreeing to join the board of directors of RNC, Peter Marrone stated the following: "RNC represents an excellent investment opportunity as it has begun to demonstrate that it can acquire new operations that show strong cash flow and improve existing operations. With a production profile that will immediately be at a level of 170,000 ounces per year once these acquisitions and transactions are completed increasing to 220,000 ounces per year, this is an undervalued company that should show strong returns to shareholders. In addition, there appears to be exceptional exploration potential that to date has not been a focus and will provide future growth."
All monetary amounts in this press release are in United States dollars.
The Repositioned RNC:
With these events, RNC will have the following profile:
i) Annual production of 170,000 ounces of gold from three mines;
ii) Production growing to 220,000 ounces of gold with the construction of Cerro Quema;
iii) Measured and Indicated resources (including proven and probable reserves) of 2.8 million ounces; and
iv) Exploration potential on a land position of more than 265,000 hectares around the existing mines.
Planned Acquisition of San Andres Mine:
Highlights of the planned San Andres acquisition include:
i) Purchase price of 100% of San Andres is approximately $22.5 million;
ii) Reliable asset that has more than five years of production history under management by RNC's principals;
iii) The San Andres production plan indicates increasing grades at a reduced strip ratio;
iv) The mine is in operation with all equipment in place requiring minimal future sustaining capital;
v) San Andres will continue to utilize the contract miner who has successfully operated at the mine over its mine life;
vi) Future five year mine plan has a significant potential to be extended; and
vii) Projected cash operating costs are estimated to be $262 per ounce.
A private Belize company, which owns 75% of the mine equity, has signed a letter of intent to sell its shares for $12.0 million plus a net smelter royalty ("NSR"). The NSR will be calculated as 1% on the first $20.0 million of annual revenues reducing to 0.5% on the remaining annual revenues. The cumulative maximum NSR will be $1.5 million. It was also agreed that the existing mine debts to a local Honduran bank of approximately $5.5 million would be extinguished. A company controlled by senior executives of RNC will sell the remaining 25% equity interest in the mine on the same basis, although these executives are willing to take stock rather than cash. The total acquisition cost has been estimated to be approximately $22.5 million.
The completion of the transaction is scheduled for November 30, 2005 but in no case later than December 20, 2005 and is subject to completion of final documentation, legal due diligence, regulatory approval and financing.
Should RNC be unable to arrange financing, on reasonable terms, the Company has agreed to pay a break-up fee of $0.5 million to the majority owners of San Andres.
Canaccord Capital Corporation is acting as financial advisor to RNC.
San Andres is an open pit, heap leach gold mine located close to the city of Santa Rosa de Copan, Honduras. Senior executives of RNC restarted the mine in August 2000 on behalf of the owners and have been responsible for operating the mine since restart. Over the past five and one half years, 16.5 million tonnes of ore have been placed on the leach pad at an average grade of 0.95 grams per tonne. Since restart, 402,750 ounces of gold have been extracted at an average recovery rate of 80% and an average operating cost of US$237 per ounce.
The historical production statistics are as follows:
----------------------------------------------------------------
Year Tonnes Tonnes Strip Grade Ounces Cash Cash
Ore Waste ratio (g/t) Sold Operating Operating
Crushed (000)s Costs Costs per
(000)s (000)s Ounce
----------------------------------------------------------------
2000 720 588 0.82 1.85 17,508 3,338 191
----------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2,289 1,698 0.74 1.75 105,775 16,035 152
----------------------------------------------------------------
2002 3,378 3,617 1.07 1.09 99,064 18,364 185
----------------------------------------------------------------
2003 2,892 4,642 1.61 0.63 52,188 16,952 325
----------------------------------------------------------------
2004 3,793 2,609 0.69 0.69 65,215 20,722 318
----------------------------------------------------------------
2005-est 3,477 3,627 1.04 0.70 63,000 19,900 316
----------------------------------------------------------------
16,549 16,781 1.01 0.95 402,750 95,311 237
----------------------------------------------------------------
The current mine plan envisions a further 16.8 million tonnes to be mined at an average grade of 0.89 grams per tonne with the strip ratio falling to 0.53 tonnes of waste per tonne of ore. Contract mining is employed at San Andres. Future operating costs are estimated to be $262 per ounce of gold.
The projected production statistics are as follows:
----------------------------------------------------------------
Year Tonnes Tonnes Strip Grade Ounces Cash Cash
Ore Waste ratio (g/t) to be Operating Operating
Crushed (000)s Sold Costs Costs per
(000)s (000)s Ounce
----------------------------------------------------------------
2006 3,380 2,820 0.83 1.22 93,500 20,000 214
----------------------------------------------------------------
2007 3,380 1,495 0.44 0.86 70,100 18,500 264
----------------------------------------------------------------
2008 3,390 546 0.16 0.82 67,000 17,200 257
----------------------------------------------------------------
2009 3,380 1,305 0.39 0.77 62,750 18,100 288
----------------------------------------------------------------
2010 3,194 2,710 0.85 0.80 61,600 19,600 318
----------------------------------------------------------------
2011 77 33 0.42 0.82 6,500 1,400 215
----------------------------------------------------------------
16,801 8,909 0.53 0.89 361,450 94,800 262
----------------------------------------------------------------
The information in this press release relating to San Andres is based on studies, reports and estimates which are, in RNC's opinion, relevant, reliable and the most recent available. However, these studies do not conform to current National Instrument 43 101 standards. A technical report in compliance with National Instrument 43 - 101 standards is currently being prepared and is scheduled to be completed in the near future.
San Andres has been in continuous operation since August 2000. No additional construction capital is necessary. Sustaining capital, principally for heap leach pad expansions, is estimated to be approximately US$5.5 million over the projected five and one half year mine life.
Exploration potential at San Andres is considered excellent. Mining operations are currently in the East Ledge pit with the move to the Twin Hills pit to occur at the end of 2006. The area between these two pits is currently being drilled with the expectation that additional ore can be added to the resource base. Additionally, the Cerro Cortes area which is adjacent to the existing mining area is targeted for an exploration program in the near future. There are also exploration targets close to the Twin Hills pit. San Andres recently purchased a RC drill to be dedicated to exploration drilling resulting in significantly reduced exploration costs. Future plans envision annual exploration programs of approximately 7,500 meters of drilling per year at an annual cost of approximately US$0.5 million per year.
La Libertad Contract Mining:
RNC has taken steps to improve operations at its existing La Libertad mine. The Company has elected to convert mining operations to a contractor as a cost efficient way to improve operations and to achieve production targets. The contractor selected by RNC is one of the largest and most experienced earth moving contractors in Central America.
The contract miner mobilized its equipment on August 13, 2005. By month's end, the contractor was moving, on average, 25,000 tonnes of ore, waste and spent ore per day which approximates the production target of 27,0000 tonnes of material per day. During the first two weeks of the ramp up to 5,000 tonnes of ore per day, the contractor moved approximately 2,400 tonnes per day and by month's end approximately 3,500 tonnes of ore per day were being delivered to the leach pads.
Recovery of gold from the leach pads is performing as expected with ultimate recoveries to be determined following the 90 day leach cycle. The grade of ore to the leach pads since August 13 has averaged approximately 2.0 grams per tonne.
Exploration:
The Company will control approximately 265,000 hectares of land around its four mine sites with the acquisition of San Andres. This is a highly prospective exploration package and RNC plans to pursue an extensive exploration program on these properties.
In addition to the San Andres exploration program, RNC plans to expand reserves and resources adjacent to the existing mines.
Additionally, the exploration programs will aggressively search for new mines within its land package with targets already identified in the La Libertad concessions at Santo Domingo as well as on the Hemco concessions.
Background of Peter Marrone:
After joining Yamana in July 2003 as President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Marrone has been instrumental in reorganizing the Company into a significant gold producer. Mr. Marrone has more than 20 years of business and capital market experience and has been on the boards of a number of public companies.
Mr. Marrone has been instrumental in building Yamana from a market capitalization of approximately $90 million when Yamana was formed in 2003 to approximately $650 million today. The Board of Directors expects RNC to benefit from Mr. Marrone's significant experience in building gold mining companies both as an operator and as a financial advisor.
About RNC Gold Inc.:
RNC Gold Inc. is a gold mining company focused on mines and projects in the Caribbean basin. From its current annual production base of 100,000 ounces of gold, RNC is positioned for growth through the acquisition of San Andres, construction of Cerro Quema, operational efficiencies and through exploration on property surrounding its present mines.The Company's main assets include the La Libertad and Bonanza mines in Nicaragua, and the Cerro Quema project under construction in Panama. The Company has signed a letter of intent to acquire the San Andres mine in Honduras. The Company has 40,569,021 common shares outstanding and on a fully diluted basis there are 64,047,736 securities outstanding.
Certain statements included herein, include those that express management's expectations or estimates of future performance, constitute "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management, are inherently subject to significant business, economic, regulatory, competitive and geological uncertainties and contingencies. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other risk factors that may cause the actual financial results, performance, or achievements of RNC Gold to be materially different from estimated future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by those forward looking statements. These are discussed in greater detail in RNC Gold's Annual Information Form and other reports filed with Canadian provincial securities commissions at www.sedar.com. RNC Gold expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward- looking statement whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise.
i never average down. but i buy the best deal that is available for my new investment funds. it looks like RNG might just fit the bill. but where is the bottom? might be a double bottom, right here and another in tax loss season. could be a big season coming up here with the miserable preformance of this dog! what do yall think about the news release today?
hi ho hi ho
its off to work we go
jon
I am not adding, going to wait for end of tax loss selling in December...
Thanks Amarksp. What is that saying - while there is life, there is hope. Should probably be adding here, but it is so hard to do psychologically.
Believe RNC a going concern at current POG. Worst case scenario would be POG under $385 which is likely their present cash cost. Should have time to work out their production problems which should allow cash cost under $300. RNC may need cash to fund San Andres acquisition, if this acquisition goes through. RNC likely has enough cash to finish Panama mine construction via internal cash flows if POG stays above $440. Total Panama capex is only $10M. Lots of unknowns here, these are my best estimates.
What's the worst case scenario here? Is RNC a going concern? Could RNC go bankrupt? Are they going to need to raise more money soon? Or do they have plenty of time to work out their production problems? What would a liquidation value for the company be?
after tax selling season, MAYBE!!
Politics-Sandinista Dissidents Unite
By Tim Rogers
Tico Times Nicaragua Correspondent
trogers@ticotimes.net
GRANADA – While the United States struggles to manufacture a right-wing coalition of “democratic forces” to defeat Daniel Ortega and the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) in next year's presidential elections, a more cohesive coalition of democratic forces is already coming together on its own volition… only on the left wing.
Rallying behind the popular figure of Herty Lewites, the former Sandinista mayor of Managua (2001-2005), the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) announced Sunday that it has split from the FSLN's electoral coalition to offer its candidacy to Lewites, who consistently polls as the favorite candidate in 2006.
SECOND FRONT: Presidential candidate Herty Lewites (right) and revolutionary hero Dora María Téllez hope Sandinista dissidents will unite under the tent of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS).
Photo Courtesy of La Prensa
The MRS is a Sandinista splinter group that formed in 1995, but later joined the FSLN's National Convergence in 2001, in part because of the new Electoral Law that made it very difficult for them to run on their own (see separate story). The party has not run its own candidate for President since 1996, when former revolutionary Vice-President and MRS cofounder Sergio Ramírez flopped in the polls.
BUT times have changed; Ortega has lost two more elections, and now the Sandinista dissident party has decided to break once again from the FSLN to target the growing number of disenchanted Sandinista voters.
“The MRS is the party that represents the majority of the country, and we aspire to govern,” said party president and former revolutionary heroine Dora María Téllez during the party's 10th anniversary in May (NT, May 27).
Téllez, a revolutionary icon, intellectual leader, celebrated former Minister of Health and gay rights advocate, is considered a shortlist candidate for running mate (although she won't yet confirm or deny it). She is also, according to the U.S. government, a terrorist.
The Bush administration earlier this year revoked Téllez' visa to the United States on vague grounds that she was a terrorist, preventing her from teaching last semester at Harvard University, where she was invited to offer a course as guest professor from Latin America (NT, Feb. 25).
Téllez has instead spent her time reorganizing and reinvigorating the MRS, which is now prepared to make a serious go at the nation's highest office.
“The MRS aspires to develop its program from within the government and from various spaces of power, prioritizing the affirmation of our identity and the strengthening of our presence and political projection throughout the country,” said a party statement released Sunday.
THE offering of the MRS candidacy to Lewites gives the early frontrunner the option of two ballots on which to run.
On Aug. 14, the Christian Alternative (AC) Party also offered Lewites its candidacy.
Lewites has not yet said on which ticket he will run. He claims he is in the process of building a national coalition that could still involve several other minority parties, as well as the Sandinista bases.
The writing on the wall, however, seems to indicate that Lewites will most likely end up on the MRS ticket.
SINCE announcing his intentions to run for President, Lewites has always identified himself as a true Sandinista – the same claim made by the MRS, whose leadership is made up of many from the old party vanguard.
Secondly, Lewites' political movement, the Sandinista Rescue Movement, has the same initials as the MRS, making for a convenient transfer of identity. And some of the figures associated with Lewites' campaign – Father Ernesto Cardenal, for example – are already old members of the MRS party.
Plus, for a former Jew who converted to Catholicism, running on the ticket of a minority Evangelical party would seem to play to existing criticism that Lewites is an opportunist who has no qualms about changing horses at any point in the river.
For a variety of reasons, the ticket of the Sandinista dissidents seems a better fit for Lewites, even in his own words.
“We are going to unite all Sandinistas to rescue the country,” Lewites said Sunday, adding that many old leaders of the “Sandinista family” will be joining the alliance in the coming weeks.
LEWITES and the MRS realize they will have their work cut out for them to overcome the Sandinista-Liberal pacto's electoral machinery, including the highly politicized Supreme Electoral Commission (CSE) (NT, Aug. 19).
“We have no assurances that the CSE will not obey the biddings of the pacto,” Téllez told The Nica Times this week. “They will certainly try to inhibit Lewites by all means available, and even try to invalidate the participation of the MRS in the elections. What we need to do is mobilize public opinion in different social sectors to confront these maneuvers.”
The MRS' strategy is to launch – immediately – a massive organizational campaign throughout the interior of the country to sign up the 50,000 poll watchers required by the Electoral Law, firm up their candidates for every elected position up for vote, and muster support for what promises to be hard-fought presidential and national legislative elections.
The party's goal is also to win a majority of congressional seats, at least 60.
WHAT is not yet clear is how the United States will respond to Lewites running on the MRS ticket.
The Nica Times has learned from a high source at the U.S. Embassy that the United States considers Lewites a member of the country's so-called “democratic forces,” despite being a Sandinista who was once arrested and jailed in California for running guns.
However, U.S. diplomats would rather see an electoral alliance between right-wing politicians and Harvard graduates Eduardo Montealegre and José Antonio Alvarado – both of whom appear to be entertaining the idea.
It remains to be seen how the U.S. stance on Lewites might change now that he has been offered the candidacy of a party that the United States considers is run by a terrorist.
The Embassy didn't answer The Nica Times' request for comment by press time this week.
Nicaragua is mired in messy politics
Backstabbing and revenge. Shady backroom deals and a judicial system rife with cronyism. Welcome to the world of modern politics in Nicaragua.
BY FRANCES ROBLES
frobles@herald.com
MANAGUA - Nicaraguan lawmakers appoint a new Supreme Court -- and several of the justices' U.S. visas are yanked. A former leftist mayor of Managua announces a bid for the presidency -- and he's suddenly under investigation for criminal wrongdoing.
President Enrique Bolaños beefs up security around his predecessor, Arnoldo Alemán -- serving a 20-year sentence at his home -- and hours later a free-trade pact with the United States that Bolaños backs stalls in congress.
Welcome to the latest installment of Nicaragua's political telenovela, replete with tales of backstabbing and revenge, underhanded deals both in backrooms and front rooms and mounting evidence of a compromised judicial system.
Since Bolaños went after Alemán on corruption charges two years ago, the former president has been in and out of confinement seven times, fathered two kids and spent five months in the hospital for a simply hand surgery. All the while he has kept the National Assembly, the presidency and the judiciary hostage to a single issue: him.
In a coalition bizarre even by Nicaragua's odd political history standards, Alemán has sometimes received help from the leftist Sandinista Front, the target of the conservative Alemán's wrath when he was in power from 1997 to 2001.
POWER STRUGGLE
''Right now, the Sandinistas have a gun pointed to my husband's head and to the president's head as well,'' said Alemán's wife, María Fernanda Flores, a former Jackson High School history teacher. ``They decide who goes to jail and who doesn't.''
Alemán, 59, was convicted of looting state coffers of $100 million by a judicial system largely controlled by the Sandinistas, Marxist revolutionaries who toppled the Anastasio Somoza dictatorship in 1979 only to institute one of their own. They were voted out of power in 1990.
Holding the power to decide where Alemán serves his 20-year sentence, the Sandinista party and its leader Daniel Ortega have formed an alliance with Alemán's Liberal Constitutionalist party, dubbed ''the pact,'' to attack and weaken Bolaños. While thousands of Nicaraguans hold rallies to protest the pact, the parties defend it as the only way to get things done.
The Sandinistas and the Liberals now control the Supreme Court, the National Assembly, the elections council, the comptroller's office and the Human Rights ombudsman's office.
''They are trying to install a dictatorship,'' said Minister of Government Julio Vega. `` They can do it in 2007 [when the next president is inaugurated], not while this president is in power.''
POLITICAL DRAMA
Among the recent power plays:
• The National Assembly passed constitutional reforms that took important public works agencies away from the president. Bolaños ignored the reforms on technical grounds, and so now Nicaragua has two telecommunications agencies.
• The Assembly appointed a new Supreme Court packed with friends of Alemán and Ortega. Shortly afterward, several of their U.S. visas were yanked.
• Earlier this month the Assembly began impeachment proceedings against Bolaños. The next day, he beefed up security at Alemán's ranch -- where the former president is serving his sentence -- restricting his movements and jacking up the number of guards from eight to 30. Hours later, Bolaños' bid for CAFTA, the free trade pact between the United States, five Central American nations and the Dominican Republic, stalled in the legislature.
• When former Managua Mayor Herty Lewites announced an interest in becoming the Sandinistas' presidential candidate he was thrown out of the party and targetted for a criminal investigation.
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has called the antics ''a legislative dictatorship.'' Interim U.S. Ambassador Oliver Garza is said to be trying to help Bolaños and the Liberals mend fences and prevent Ortega from winning the presidential election in November 2006.
Ortega has lost all three presidential ballots since 1990.
''Garza is trying to do everything he can so Sandinistas won't win the next election, which is not his role,'' said Edwin Castro, a Sandinista assemblyman. ``If anybody doesn't listen to Washington, he gets his visa revoked.''
REVENGE ON HIS MIND
Bolaños took over the presidency in 2002, after serving as Alemán's vice president. The former businessman and anti-Sandinista crusader campaigned on a platform against corruption, but no one expected Alemán's hand-picked successor to start his rule by going after his former boss and fellow Liberal Party member.
Liberal Party legislators loyal to Alemán broke away from Bolaños and made deals with the Sandinistas instead. They defend the pact as routine deals struck between political parties.
Although Alemán was eventually convicted, Sandinista judges controlling the case broadened the investigation to include allegations of election fraud by Bolaños, three of his ministers and three vice ministers.
''People in glass houses do not throw stones. Bolaños tried to use the political system to his advantage, and now all of Nicaragua is paying the price,'' said René Herrera,'' a top Liberal assemblyman.
I am surprised. I seem to recall a larger position but maybe that was cleared up when there was all that voleme around 60 cents.
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