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Bills S Damar Hamlin has cardiac arrest on field, NFL suspends game vs. Bengals
FRANK SCHWAB
Mon, Jan 2, 2023, 9:16 PM EST
https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-s-damar-hamlin-has-cardiac-arrest-on-field-nfl-suspends-game-vs-bengals-021642600.html
Hoping and praying for the best for him.
The NFC South
https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/standings/
The losers division.
In the "other football",he was a legend.
Brazilian soccer legend Pelé has died at 82
N.F.L. Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game
Can the Jaguars keep the Titans from the A.F.C. South title? Can the Bills outscore the Bengals? Will anyone win the N.F.C. South? The N.F.L. is edging closer to having answers to regular season queries.
By David Hill
Dec. 29, 2022, 12:00 a.m. ET
For many N.F.L. teams, these last two weeks of the regular season are crucial — either to their playoff hopes and seeding, or to securing future draft picks.
The Bills are clinging to the A.F.C.’s top seed, which would give Buffalo home-field advantage in the playoffs, but they need to keep winning in order to prevent another January trek to Arrowhead Stadium.
The Jaguars are facing the left-for-dead Texans, in a matchup that means nothing to most N.F.L. fans but could help determine whether Jacksonville can push Tennessee out of the running for the A.F.C. South crown.
Chicago could be angling for the top draft pick but won’t shut down Justin Fields or roll over for the Lions, while Las Vegas is pulling the plug on Derek Carr with two games remaining.
Predicting which teams will win these final regular-season matchups is as much about assessing their goals as it is about evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. After all, what good is a strength if it is sitting on the bench?
Last week’s record: 5-9-2
Overall record: 120-111-8
All times Eastern.
Here’s what you need to know:
Thursday’s Game
Sunday’s Best Games
Sunday’s Other Games
Monday Night’s Game
How Betting Lines Work
Thursday’s Game
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8), 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime
Line: Titans +10.5 | Total: 41.5
Dak Prescott’s turnover troubles continued last week against the Eagles, but Dallas’s quarterback was able to rally back after his pick-6 in the first quarter and the Cowboys won, 40-34. Two of Prescott’s three touchdown throws went to CeeDee Lamb, and the duo can do similar work against the Titans, who tend to load up against the run.
Tennessee has lost five straight games and will almost certainly lose this one, but 10.5 points are a lot to give at home — especially considering that the Titans are in a dogfight with Jacksonville for the A.F.C. South division. The Titans plan to start the rookie quarterback Malik Willis, in place of Ryan Tannehill (ankle injury), and could be looking to tread water until facing the Jaguars head-to-head in Week 18. Pick: Titans +10.5
Sunday’s Best Games
Minnesota Vikings (12-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-8), 4:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Packers -3.5 | Total: 47
Against all odds, the Packers are still alive in the playoff race. Winner of three straight, Green Bay enters Sunday’s game tied with the Lions and Seahawks and just outside of a wild-card spot. Though the Packers play the final two divisional games at home and began the week as favorites in this one, the Vikings are on an improbable run of close wins: Minnesota is 11-0 in one-possession games this season, the most such wins in N.F.L. history.
The Packers are having a hard time stopping the run, and Dalvin Cook has been potent against them in the past. It would be tough to pick Green Bay winning by four against the luckiest team in the N.F.L. at full strength, but the Packers rookie receiver Christian Watson injured his hip last week and is questionable for this game, so we’re taking the “underdog.” Pick: Vikings +3.5
Miami Dolphins (8-7) at New England Patriots (7-8), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Patriots -3 | Total: 42
Both of these teams are limping toward the end of the regular season. New England has lost four of their last five, and the offense has regressed enough that there are rumors of a shake-up coming to Bill Belichick’s staff.
Miami has lost four in a row, and Coach Mike McDaniel announced on Wednesday that he planned to start Teddy Bridgewater in place of Tua Tagovailoa, who self reported concussion symptoms after last week’s loss to the Packers. Miami needs this win to hang onto a wild-card berth, with the Patriots just a game behind in the A.F.C. East, and the Dolphins can clinch here. Bridgewater is capable of throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and might even fare better than Tagovailoa did against the press coverage in the past two weeks. Pick: Dolphins +3
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 39
The Buccaneers will clinch the N.F.C. South with a win, but they face a Panthers team highly motivated to keep that from happening. Sam Darnold has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt since Week 12 — a period in which the team has gone 3-1 — and the Panthers only turned the ball over once during that stretch (compared with the Buccaneers’ 11). Despite trading Christian McCaffrey early in the season, Carolina still has a rushing game Tampa Bay should envy: D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard help the team put up an average of 187 rushing yards per game since Week 12 (the Buccaneers averaged 90 in that stretch).
The Buccaneers have stayed on top of this division by grinding out ugly wins against bad teams, needing miraculous late-game scores to come out on top. If Tampa Bay’s offense played entire games the way they do during the final two minutes, the Buccaneers might have been Super Bowl contenders. Pick: Panthers +3
Jets (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-8), 4:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Seahawks +2.5 | Total: 42
The past two weeks, the market has backed the Jets heavily and, with Zach Wilson under center, the team has failed to cover in both instances. This week, Mike White is back at quarterback, and that news pushed the line from the Jets being 1.5-point underdogs on Sunday to being 2.5 favorites on the road by Tuesday.
The Seahawks have lost five of their past six and dropped their shot at winning the N.F.C. West in the process. These two bubble teams match up well: Seattle’s offense is good enough to test the Jets’ staunch defense, and the Jets’ offense is just as inept as the Seahawks’ defense. We’ll take the team that can actually manage to score. Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (10-5), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Ravens -3 | Total: 35.5
The N.F.L. flexed this A.F.C. North rivalry game to prime time in anticipation of either team’s ability to play spoiler. The Ravens have clinched but need wins to retake the division from the Bengals. Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin has never finished with a losing record in any of his previous 15 seasons as head coach of the Steelers, and Pittsburgh needs to win its last two to keep that streak alive.
Much of what happens Sunday night hinges on Baltimore’s quarterback situation. John Harbaugh has been coy about whether or not Lamar Jackson will return to the lineup this week after resting a sprained knee. Even if Jackson is healthy, it is conceivable that the Ravens keep him benched until the playoffs and start Tyler Huntley again. If they do, this will be a close battle between two formidable defenses. If Jackson plays, it could be a rout. Pick: Ravens -3
Sunday’s Other Games
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 43.5
There are just enough question marks surrounding the Eagles to give New Orleans a hope and half a prayer in this one. Philadelphia lost the star offensive tackle Lane Johnson for at least two weeks with an abdominal injury, and the rookie nose tackle Jordan Davis’s status was up in the air as he was being evaluated for a concussion. The Eagles have had the division clinched for weeks, so Jalen Hurts could rest his sprained throwing shoulder for this one. The Vikings are a game back in the race for the N.F.C.’s top seed so don’t count on it.
The pitiable N.F.C. South race still isn’t settle, and if New Orleans wins their last two (and the Buccaneers lose their last two), the Saints could sneak into the playoffs. It’s probably too much to hope for, but staying within a touchdown while trying to pull off a miracle against a banged up Eagles? That’s within their grasp. Pick: Saints +7
Arizona Cardinals (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (5-10), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 41
Both teams are out of contention, so the only thing riding on this game for either franchise is draft order. But there could be stakes alive for the starters on the field. While Trace McSorley knows he’s holding down the quarterback spot for Kyler Murray, the rookie Desmond Ridder may relish another shot at showing off his value to Atlanta. Pick: Falcons -3.5
Chicago Bears (3-12) at Detroit Lions (7-8), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Lions -6 | Total: 52
Just when the Lions defense was starting to look like it might be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, the Panthers put up a franchise-record 570 yards against it in Week 16. Detroit is ahead of Green Bay on points in the N.F.C. North and still has a shot at the second wild-card spot but needs to take care of Chicago first. The Bears could slide ahead of Houston in the race for the No. 1 overall draft pick, but Matt Eberflus said Monday that the team had no plans of shutting down Justin Fields the rest of the way. Still, if the Lions can’t win at home in this spot, the Curse of Bobby Layne may be real. Pick: Lions -6
Denver Broncos (4-11) at Kansas City (12-3), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Kansas City -13.5 | Total: 44.5
In what had to be a low point in a miserable season, Denver lost to the Rams, 51-14, on Christmas Day, a loss so bad that Patrick from SpongeBob SquarePants even roasted the Broncos. By Monday, the team had fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett and replaced him with Jerry Rosburg, the coach brought in to help Hackett manage the clock. For his first game as interim coach, Rosburg gets Kansas City, currently playing some of the best football in the league. When these two teams met in Denver in Week 14, a 34-28 Kansas City win, the Broncos stayed within a touchdown and covered the 9.5-point spread. Kansas City is 4-10-1 against the spread this season, and this week it is laying double digits at home. Pick: Broncos +13.5
Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Giants -5 | Total: 39
The Colts didn’t convert a single third down in their 20-3 loss to the Chargers last week, the second time that’s happened this season. The highest paid offensive line in football let Nick Foles get sacked seven times and pressured into throwing three interceptions. Indianapolis has a -109 point differential this season, and the Giants could clinch a playoff spot with a win. Pick: Giants -5
Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Washington Commanders (7-7-1), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Commanders -2.5 | Total: 40
In the hopes of generating its red-zone offense — and clinging to a wild-card spot — the Commanders this week tabbed Carson Wentz as the starter again after going 0-2-1 in the last three games behind Taylor Heinicke. The Browns were eliminated last week, and this game may not mean much for Cleveland’s season, but Deshaun Watson will use these last two games to gain the team’s confidence. If they start to click, an upset is possible. Pick: Browns +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) at Houston Texans (2-12-1), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Texans +4 | Total: 44
The Jaguars enter Sunday’s game with the same record as the Titans in the A.F.C. South, and have a full head of steam after beating four of their past five opponents. With the league’s 11th most efficient offense, Jacksonville shouldn’t have trouble with this one. Pick: Jaguars -4
San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-9), 4:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Raiders +8.5 | Total: 44.5
The 49ers might have the best pass rush in the N.F.L. right now and with the defense thriving, Brock Purdy has been able to play fairly conservatively in three wins as the starter. The market has fallen in love with the 49ers along the way and has all but given up on the Raiders.
The Raiders have apparently given up on Derek Carr, who threw nine interceptions in his past five games. Coach Josh McDaniels said on Wednesday that he planned to bench Carr for the rest of the season, a sign that the team may cut the quarterback at season’s end. Jarrett Stidham will get his first N.F.L. start, and presumably Josh Jacobs will get enough touches to keep him ahead of Derrick Henry in the season rushing title race. Any other positives for Las Vegas will have to wait for next season. Pick: 49ers -8.5
Los Angeles Rams (5-10) at Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), 4:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Chargers -6.5 | Total: 40.5
While the number of tickets bet on this game have been evenly split, more than 95 percent of the money is on the Rams, who scored on nearly every drive of last week’s trouncing of the Broncos’ top-10 defense. The Chargers clinched their playoff spot already and tend to play down to opponents. Pick: Rams +6.5
Monday Night’s Game
Image
D.J. Reader walks forward with the ball in his hand and his arm raised over his head. Several players celebrate behind him.
D.J. Reader and the Bengals defense have forced seven turnovers in Cincinnati’s last four games.Credit...Chris O'Meara/Associated Press
Buffalo Bills (12-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4), 8:30 p.m., ESPN, ABC
Line: Bengals +1.5 | Total: 49.5
The total of 49.5 points is the biggest of the week, based on these two teams’ scoring capabilities: The Bills have a +157 scoring differential and the Bengals keep outperforming the market’s expectations, going 12-3 against the spread this season (26-10 against it since last season). With Buffalo fighting to fend off Kansas City for the A.F.C.’s top seed, and Cincinnati trying to stave off Baltimore in the A.F.C. North, this should be a competitive, fun game between two of the best teams in the N.F.L. We’re trusting the home underdogs to cover one more time. Pick: Bengals +1.5
How Betting Lines Work
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Buccaneers -2.5, for example, means that Tampa Bay must beat the Seahawks by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, which is whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
Betting market data is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting data, and lines are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/sports/football/nfl-week-17-picks.html
Bronco's coach is fired. Might take a bit more than that to fix them.
Franco Harris, N.F.L. Hall of Famer Who Caught ‘Immaculate Reception,’ Dies at 72
The former Pittsburgh Steelers running back died days before the 50th anniversary of one of the most memorable plays in N.F.L. history.
Give this article
110
Franco Harris running with a football.
Franco Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers runs for a touchdown after the “Immaculate Reception” on Dec. 23, 1972.Credit...Harry Cabluck/Associated Press
Daniel Victor
By Daniel Victor
Dec. 21, 2022
Updated 10:10 a.m. ET
Franco Harris, the Hall of Fame running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers whose shoestring catch known as the “Immaculate Reception” in 1972 remains one of the most memorable moments in N.F.L. history, has died. He was 72.
His son, Franco “Dok” Harris, confirmed his death to The Associated Press. No cause of death was given.
Harris’s death comes days before the 50th anniversary of the “Immaculate Reception,” which Mike Tomlin, the current Steelers coach, said this week was “the most significant play in the history of the game.” The Steelers planned to retire Harris’s jersey number, 32, during a halftime ceremony at their game on Saturday.
The 6-foot-2 running back won four Super Bowls with the Steelers as they established themselves as the N.F.L.’s dominant team of the 1970s, and he was named to the Pro Bowl in each of his first nine seasons. But it was a single, heads-up play that more than anything defined his career.
On Dec. 23, 1972, the Steelers were trailing, 7-6, in a divisional round playoff game against the Oakland Raiders. With less than 30 seconds to play in the fourth quarter, the Steelers quarterback, Terry Bradshaw, lofted a desperation pass to John “Frenchy” Fuqua, only to see the ball deflect toward the ground. But Harris scooped the ball out of the air just inches from the turf and ran for the game-winning touchdown, a miraculous finish that has been replayed thousands of times since.
“I have to admit that catch keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger,” Harris told The New York Times in 2012. “When people look back at the great success that the Steelers have had the last 40 years and wonder where it all started, well, it all began right there. If not for that catch, all the success that followed might not have ever happened.”
Five decades later, Harris, who played college football at Penn State, remained one of the most beloved Steelers players, an instantly recognizable face in Pittsburgh. He rushed for 12,120 yards over 13 seasons, 12 of which were with Pittsburgh, and was a linchpin of the Steelers' most successful era, winning Super Bowls in the 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979 seasons.
The ceremony on Saturday, during halftime of a prime time matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, had already been planned to pay tribute to Harris. The president of the Steelers, Art Rooney II, part of a family that has owned the team since its founding in 1933, said in a statement in September that “Franco’s impact on the franchise would be hard to overstate.”
“My grandfather was once quoted as saying: ‘Before Franco got here, we didn’t win much; Since he got here, we don’t lose,’” he said in a statement.
Harris retired after the 1984 season as the third-leading rusher in N.F.L. history, behind Walter Payton and Jim Brown. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1990.
Image
Franco Harris and a statue of Franco Harris.
Harris and a statue of himself at the Pittsburgh airport in 2019.Credit...Nate Guidry/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, via Associated Press
“We have lost an incredible football player, an incredible ambassador to the Hall and, most importantly, we have lost one of the finest gentlemen anyone will ever meet,” Jim Porter, the president of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, said in a statement.
Harris was born on March 7, 1950, in Fort Dix, N.J. After graduating from Rancocas Valley Regional High School in New Jersey, he played fullback at Penn State, opening running lanes for running back Lydell Mitchell.
The Steelers drafted him with the 13th pick in the first round of the 1972 N.F.L. draft, and he made an immediate impact, winning Rookie of the Year honors with 1,055 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Steelers never had a losing record in his 12 seasons, and his career record of 354 rushing yards in Super Bowls stands today.
“All I know is, he’s dependable,” Bradshaw, the Steelers quarterback throughout the ’70s, said of Harris in 1983. “He’s a Rolls-Royce, and since I haven’t seen too many of them driving around the streets of Pittsburgh, it’s nice to know there’s one sitting right behind me on the field.”
Harris remained popular in Pittsburgh, where a statue of his famous catch greeted visitors at the airport. He opened a bakery, Super Bakery, and a fitness gear brand, both based in the city.
Ed Gainey, the mayor of Pittsburgh, said in a statement on Wednesday that Harris “always said yes to helping our food banks, blood drives, and youth sports leagues.”
“He loved this city — and his memory will always be a blessing for the people of Pittsburgh,” Mr. Gainey said.
The Penn State Athletics Department said in a statement, citing his support of the Special Olympics, that Harris was “a blue collar, tough as nails competitor with a philanthropic heart.”
“Franco’s impact in both the Pittsburgh and Penn State communities is far reaching and will continue for years to come,” the statement said.
He played for the Seattle Seahawks in his 13th and final season.
Harris is survived by his wife, Dana Dokmanovich, and his son, Dok, according to The Associated Press.
This is a developing story. A full obituary will be published soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/sports/football/franco-harris-dead-steelers.html
LOL check out his team mates.... I don't know what they are feeding them out there but apparently they have the secret formula. I don't believe it either but it sure is funny.
THIS KID IS REALLY ONLY 12 YEARS OLD 🤯
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 14, 2022
(via callme_mr.4x_/IG, hoodnews24/TT) pic.twitter.com/ScOuSXjZaM
That person is no more 12 than I am. Or you are. Or Clint Eastwood is.
LOL I did but you've already heard about it..... My celebration has been cut short.
check this out, funny thread. I love whoever runs this because they always take me back to my childhood. Worth a follow if you grew up in the 70's but today sometimes hits.
Wait a minute. This guy is TWELVE? He has a tattoo sleeve and looks like he just got waived by the Jaguars because he’s 33 and slipping. He makes Greg Oden look like Gary Coleman. Danny Almonte just called and wants all his Little League trophies back. pic.twitter.com/DFQVdNQCep
— Super 70s Sports (@Super70sSports) December 14, 2022
Congrats on the win! I don't snitch and your entitled every now and then. Might even get a good night's sleep.
wooo hoo! I won my division and went for a beer tonight. 2 pints of guiness and a snifter full of glenfiddich 18.
I will not start again and be a good boy from here on out. I just get my moments and my nerves are shot. It actually helped lol I'm walking on a cloud right now.
don't snitch on me please. I'm gonna get my butt kicked next week but it will not be an excuse.
Kenneth Walker? OK, added to watchlist.
I started Geno over Dak the last 2 weeks and I couldn't be happier. I think he saved my season.
Giants Tank for Bryce Young
The kid had the right idea. They just didn't tank soon enough.
Well I did win both Yahoo and Augusta's ESPN college pickems. And his were actually much harder. It was 10 games and really weird ones as well.
You've done very well. I'd just like to point out that you have a goal. I won the college pick'ems 4-5 years running. just sayin'...
Eagles Clinch a Playoff Spot but Turn the Giants’ Outlook Gloomier
Philadelphia improved to 12-1, but the Giants (7-5-1) could not secure a victory for a fourth consecutive game.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/11/sports/football/eagles-giants-score.html
To make matters worse the game was on TV here yesterday. Fortunately Fox finally cut away in the 4th quarter.
I'll find a better beer.
I don't want to brag but even I am impressed with my picks this year.
Standings
Rank Pick Set Name Total Pts W-L
1
BNBs Cellar Dwellers
131 131-74
2
LIONSROAR
124 124-81
3
Augusta Raiders
117 117-88
4
Giants Tank for Bryce Young
116 116-89
5
Catbegone
113 113-92
For next year- for RB take Kenneth Walker if you can.
I'll find a better beer.
whooo girl. My fantasy team sucked this year but I hung in there and trying to win my division with an 8-6 record. He's got a one point lead on me with Dandre Hopkins going tomorrow. I Have Keenan Allen going tonight and Nick Folk going tomorrow.
LOL I know I'm going to get dusted in the playoffs but if I can squeak out the division and win my money back for next year, all will be right with the world.
My son and I are interested.
Anyone interested in doing a College Football Bowl "Pickem" 20 each, winner 70% 2nd place 30% ?? Last years we had 14 folks
I can see why they're picking against the line, but I actually think the Seahawks will win this one.
Congrats! Clearly wasn't my year- plus I must have picked the wrong beer.
I'll be back next year!
N.F.L. Week 13 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game
Kansas City and the Bengals revisit last season’s A.F.C. championship, the Commanders and Giants battle for playoff seeding, and the Dolphins offense gets its stiffest test yet against the 49ers defense.
By David Hill
Published Dec. 1, 2022
Updated Dec. 2, 2022
Week 13 features three games between first-place teams and a whole heap of matchups pivotal to playoff futures. It’s also where the punishing grind of the N.F.L. season begins to affect outcomes. Promising teams turn into M.A.S.H. units. Bubble teams face difficult choices about who to play and who to rest. Others get boosted by the return of a starter.
Fans tend to overreact when handicapping how the absence of star players will affect the spread, but an injury to a single skill player doesn’t actually impact the point spread more than a point unless it involves a starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson’s debut for the Browns this week isn’t having much of a market impact at all so far, probably because it’s so hard to predict the effect of his extended absence. Watson served an 11-game suspension after facing allegations of sexual misconduct and did not play during the 2021 season as the Texans sought, at his request, to trade him.
Clusters of injuries matter a great deal, such as those along the Rams’ offensive line, which is currently rated the worst in the league. Even though most linemen never touch a football, they have a major effect on the game. This week, key offensive-line players for the Bills, Dolphins and Chargers are out or hurt, and it could give their opponents an edge.
Last Week’s Record: 7-8-1
Overall Record: 92-82-5
All times Eastern.
Washington Commanders (7-5) at Giants (7-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Giants +2.5 | Total: 40.5
Every N.F.C. East team has a winning record and would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended at Week 12. It doesn’t. The Giants and Commanders play each other twice in the next three weeks, and their games should help put some separation between the teams in the division. The Commanders are 6-1 over the past seven weeks, but their record has obscured Taylor Heinicke’s turnover troubles (five interceptions and two fumbles) and how hard receivers have been working overtime to make his wild passes look clean. Washington’s momentum owes a lot to the defense, which has allowed an average of just 15.4 points per game and leads the league in forced turnovers over the last seven games.
The Giants have lost three of their last four but may be getting a few injured players back this week, including tight end Daniel Bellinger (fractured eye socket), offensive tackle Evan Neal and edge rusher Azeez Ojulari. The Commanders are playing better right now, but that’s why the Giants get the points. Pick: Giants +2.5
Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Eagles -5.5 | Total: 44.5
Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders each set career rushing highs, and the Eagles ran for 363 total yards against the Packers last week. It would be hard to repeat that effort against the Titans, who have the third-best rushing defense in the league and have held every opponent after Week 3 to 20 or fewer points. The Tennessee offense has lately gotten a lift from the rookie receiver Treylon Burks, who had a combined 181 receiving yards over their last two games. Of course, the Titans’ first option will most likely be Derrick Henry, who should do well against an Eagles defense that is giving up 4.7 yards per rush attempt. Pick: Titans +5.5
Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4), 4:05 p.m., Fox
Line: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 46.5
This matchup between the top teams in the A.F.C. East and N.F.C. West should be a test for the Dolphins’ juggernaut offense against the 49ers’ league-best defense. Miami is on a five-game winning streak during which Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. But left tackle Terron Armstead strained his pectoral in the second quarter of last week’s game and might out against the 49ers. That could be enough of an edge for San Francisco. Pick: 49ers -3.5
Kansas City (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4), 4:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Bengals +2.5 | Total: 52.5
This game is nominally a rematch of Cincinnati’s wild win in the A.F.C. Championship game, but it may be more appropriate to think of it as a rematch of their regular season meeting in Week 17 last season. The Bengals were a middling 5-4 at midseason and hardly looked like a Super Bowl contender until beating Kansas City, 34-31.
This season, Cincinnati was 5-4 again after Week 9 and is on another confidence building second-half tear. The team also may get Ja’Marr Chase back from hip injury. They’ll need him to help keep pace with the Kansas City offense, the league’s top-scoring team, averaging the most yards per play (6.5), and yards per game (430). But last week against the Rams, Kansas City showed a crack in its armor: In six trips to the red zone, the team scored only one touchdown. To cover as home underdogs, the Bengals will need to pick at that flaw. Pick: Bengals +2.5
Sunday’s Other Games
Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Vikings -3 | Total: 45.5
For the second time in two seasons, Mike White swooped in for a game and upgraded the Jets offense. White had 22 completions on 28 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns last week against the depleted Bears, but this is a Jets team that beat Miami and Buffalo this season behind Zach Wilson, thanks to talent around the field including the league’s fourth-best red-zone defense. The Vikings have weapons of their own, including Justin Jefferson, who has one fewer receiving yard (1,232) than the league leader, Tyreek Hill. Minnesota’s defense, however, is second only to Detroit in yards allowed per game and per play, so White could have another showcase. Pick: Jets +3
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Falcons -1 | Total: 41.5
Atlanta had a shot to beat the Commanders last week, but Marcus Mariota’s pass from the 4-yard line was picked off with 58 seconds left in the game. It was a familiar ending for the Falcons, who have lost five games by 6 points or fewer this season. Still, Atlanta is only a half-game back of the Buccaneers in the N.F.C. South, and their remaining schedule has just one team with a winning record. The Steelers are not that team. Despite Kenny Pickett having perhaps the best game of his season in a 24-17 win over the Colts on Monday night, the Steelers still average the second-fewest yards per play of any team in the N.F.L. Pick: Falcons -1
Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Bears +4 | Total: 43.5
There are still questions about who will play quarterback for both of these teams. Aaron Rodgers, already playing with a broken thumb, left last week’s loss with a rib injury. He said he expected to be ready for Sunday’s game though Jordan Love took the snaps in his absence and completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards, leading the Packers to 10 points in two possessions.
For the Bears, Justin Fields sat out last week with a separated shoulder and Coach Matt Eberflus had not said, as of Wednesday, whether Fields would play this week. The Bears have lost eight of their last nine, and seven of those losses came despite Fields’s putting up impressive numbers. If he’s out, it’s hard to picture Chicago covering this number. If he’s in, the Packers should still have an advantage with either of their quarterbacks under center. Pick: Packers -4
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Lions +1.5 | Total: 51
Trevor Lawrence threw for an astounding 173 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of the Jaguars’ 1-point upset over the Ravens last week. It would be foolish to expect a repeat, especially given the Jaguars’ struggles on the road, where the team has lost 21 of 22 games.
They match up well, though, with the Lions: The two teams can move the ball on offense, and their defenses are similarly atrocious. The market was nearly evenly split by midweek. In an even contest, take the points at home. Pick: Lions +1.5
Image
Corliss Waitman punts the ball from the end zone. His leg is extended, and his eyes track the football’s trajectory.
Broncos punter Corliss Waitman’s 65 punts lead the N.F.L.Credit...Rusty Jones/Associated Press
Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Ravens -8 | Total: 38.5
In every one of the Ravens’ four losses this season, they were ahead by 9 or more points in the second half. If there’s one team they should be able to close against, it’s the Broncos. Denver is averaging 14.3 points per game, the team’s lowest average since 1966 and an offense so bad that the under is 10-1 in Broncos games this season. Not only has more than 75 percent of the money come in on the under for this game, but bettors are laying the points at about the same rate. Pick: Ravens -8
Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Texans +7 | Total: 47.5
The Texans traded Deshaun Watson in 2022 as the league investigated allegations from more than two dozen women that he sexually harassed and assaulted them during massage appointments. (He settled 23 lawsuits with accusers and two grand juries declined to indict him.) Since signing a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract with the Browns, Watson’s return to play has been anticipated as a flash point between critics of the N.F.L.’s handling of his case and a team that banked its future on the former Pro Bowl quarterback.
This week, Watson is expected to start for a Browns team that needs to win at least five of their last six games to have a shot at the playoffs. Cleveland seemingly gets a layup this week against a dead-and-buried Houston Texans team, whose best offensive player, running back Dameon Pierce, has been neutralized in the past few weeks as defenses homed in on him. The Texans came close to covering the 13-point spread against the Dolphins last week only because Miami decided to pull their quarterback in the third quarter and eased up ahead by 30. Cleveland, at least on paper, is capable of putting up big numbers in Houston. Pick: Browns -7
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8), 4:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Rams +8 | Total: 42
Seattle looked like it had figured out their defensive issues but have fallen out of the playoff picture after having lost their last two, including a Week 12 overtime defeat in which they allowed the Raiders to score 40 points. Playing the Rams twice in the next six weeks should offer the Seahawks a chance to get right.
Los Angeles’s injured reserve list is massive and expected to grow: Receiver Allen Robinson is out for the season with a foot injury, Cooper Kupp isn’t expected to play again in the regular season, Matthew Stafford is questionable for Sunday and Aaron Donald is being evaluated for a high ankle sprain that may see him shut down for the remaining schedule. Their backups have been trying to tread water as the team has attrited and nearly covered a 15-point spread against Kansas City last week. This game opened at 4.5 and has been adjusted all the way to 8 in an effort to get somebody — anybody — to take the Rams. We volunteer as tribute. Pick: Rams +8
Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7), 4:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Raiders +2.5 | Total: 50
The Chargers have given up at least 157 rushing yards in each of their past five games, and their average of 5.4 yards allowed per rush is the worst in the league. This week, they have to figure out how to stop not only the run, but also a whole freight train. Josh Jacobs has been on a heater and took the top spot among running backs last week after an 86-yard touchdown run against Seattle helped vault his total yards for the season to 1,159. In that overtime game, he set a team record with 303 yards from scrimmage, including 74 receiving yards, and led the Raiders to their second-straight win.
Chargers center Corey Linsley left last week’s win against Arizona with a concussion, and the Cardinals were able to pressure Justin Herbert on every play after he went out. Linsley is expected to sit this one out, and if he does the Chargers will have a tough time again. Pick: Raiders +2.5
Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Cowboys -11 | Total: 43.5
Matt Ryan beware: The Cowboys defense is first in quarterback pressure rate and fewest passing yards allowed per game, and they’ve bagged a league-best 45 sacks. The Colts, despite having the most expensive offensive line in the league, have allowed 43 sacks, the most of any team this season. This line opened at 9, and one way action on the Cowboys moved it to 11. That’s nearing the upper limits of what the Cowboys can stand. They failed to cover 9.5 against the Giants for us last week, but we’re not about to pick the Colts. Pick: Cowboys -11
Monday Night’s Game
New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Buccaneers -3.5 | Total: 39.5
These N.F.C. South rivals tend to play rough, with the Saints’ having won the past four meetings in Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers, coming off a painful overtime loss to the Browns, still sit atop the division and have the more recent victory. In their Week 2 meeting, the Buccaneers picked off Jameis Winston three times and won, 20-10. Marshon Lattimore, who was ejected in that game for a scuffle with Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans, returns to the lineup for New Orleans just in time for the rematch, though the Saints have settled on Andy Dalton as the starter.
The Buccaneers always get a lot of support in the betting markets no matter the opponent, and especially when facing a team struggling as much as the Saints are. But this line opened at 6.5, and the money has been all New Orleans, moving the line a full field goal in the Buccaneers’ favor. At this number, the market may want to take a second look at the home team. Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Thursday’s Result
Buffalo Bills 24, New England Patriots 10
The Bills never gave the Patriots offense a chance on Thursday night. Buffalo’s offense stayed on the field for 38 minutes, ran 72 plays, and gained 355 yards in a dominating win in Foxborough, Mass.
Mac Jones passed for 195 yards and a touchdown, connecting with nine different receivers, but was so frustrated with short-yardage play calls that he was seen screaming on the sideline. The Patriots’ ground game was no help, either. Rahmondre Stevenson was held to 54 rushing yards. We picked the Patriots +4.5 thinking that the New England defense would be up to the challenge of keeping this score close at home, but with so many role players in the secondary out with injuries, the Bills never even broke a sweat.
How Betting Lines Work
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Buccaneers -2.5, for example, means that Tampa Bay must beat the Seahawks by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, which is whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
Betting-market data is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting data, and lines are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/sports/football/nfl-week-13-picks.html
I won! Clean sweep on ESPN and Yahoo college pickems.
https://fantasy.espn.com/free-prize-games/sharer?challengeId=211&context=GROUP_WIN&edition=espn-en&groupId=a5206780-37d3-472f-bb90-ee8f4f7e7f13
https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/college/4549
N.F.L. Week 12 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game
The Thanksgiving Day lineup is stocked, but Sunday is no dud as the Bengals and Titans look to keep streaking and the Jets experiment at quarterback to keep their playoff hopes alive.
By David Hill
Nov. 24, 2022, 12:01 a.m. ET
Heading into the final third of the regular season, a number of teams are experimenting at quarterback.
For Houston and Carolina, benching starters gives both franchises the chance to evaluate their backups. For the Jets, who are clinging to playoff contention, sitting Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White may be a way to keep the locker room from splintering. By sticking with Taylor Heinicke even as Carson Wentz returns to practice, the Commanders have rewarded a backup who has exceeded expectations.
These teams’ moves have the potential to radically change the way they’re handicapped. While the data on teams is clear in the late weeks of a season, big roster changes, especially at quarterback, can render a lot of that information moot. The secret to handicapping N.F.L. games against the spread often lies not in the box scores or win-loss columns, but somewhere in the injury and personnel reports. Week 12 is one of those weeks.
Last week’s record: 9-3-1 | Overall record: 85-74-4
All times Eastern.
Here’s what you need to know:
Thursday’s Games
Sunday’s Best Games
Sunday’s Other Games
Monday Night’s Game
How Betting Lines Work
Thursday’s Games
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6), 12:30 p.m., CBS
Line: Lions +10 | Total: 54.5
The total for this game is a stratospheric 54.5, the highest on the board, and it shouldn’t be hard for these two teams to hit that number. Buffalo’s games have gone over 50 points only twice this season, but both came in the last two games: a 33-30 overtime loss to the Vikings and a 31-23 win against the Browns. The Bills’ high-scoring offense will do what it does, but the team’s defense is increasingly dealing with injuries (cornerback Kaiir Elam is inactive with an ailing ankle).
Lions running back Jamaal Williams leads the N.F.L. in total touchdowns (12), and Detroit is riding a three-game winning streak. Detroit is 37-43-2 over the last 82 Thanksgiving games, and 6-15 since 2000, but it can keep the margin closer than expected against a Bills team that is playing at Ford Field for the second game in a row. Pick: Lions +10
Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3), 4:30 p.m., Fox
Line: Cowboys -9.5 | Total: 45
Eight Giants players left with injuries in last week’s 31-18 loss to the Lions, including Wan’Dale Robinson, devastating an already paltry group of receivers. That’s bad news for quarterback Daniel Jones as the Giants face the Cowboys, who have the top-rated defense in the N.F.L. and lead the league in sacks (42).
Edge rusher Micah Parsons, who is responsible for 10 of those sacks, has been a big reason for the Cowboys’ success this season, enough so that he has wondered on social media what it would take for a nonquarterback to win the Most Valuable Player Award. Dak Prescott got help from the return of running back Ezekiel Elliott in their last game, as he and Tony Pollard each scored two touchdowns in a rout of the Vikings. Dallas has been the N.F.L.’s third-best rushing team over its last three games, averaging 170 yards per game. Pick: Cowboys -9.5
New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Vikings -2.5 | Total: 42.5
The Vikings have somehow managed to win five games decided by a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime, but that luck may be wearing off. Last week, the Cowboys dismantled Minnesota, and offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw left the game with a concussion. He is out for Thursday’s game, potentially leaving Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins susceptible to blindside pressure — not a great position to be in against a pass rush led by Matthew Judon, who has a league-high 13 sacks this season. Pick: Patriots +2.5
What to Know About This Year’s Thanksgiving Day N.F.L. Games
Nov. 23, 2022
Sunday’s Best Games
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Titans +1.5 | Total: 43
The Bengals have won four of their last five games and the Titans seven of their last eight. Both teams’ upward trajectories owe to a few happy surprises. Cincinnati has an efficient red zone offense and managed to beat the Steelers last week despite missing Ja’Marr Chase, its top receiver, and running back Joe Mixon leaving the game with a concussion. Running back Samaje Perine did double duty and caught a franchise-record three touchdowns.
The Titans have relied heavily on Derrick Henry, as usual, but the rookie receiver Treylon Burks has emerged as a serious threat, catching seven passes for 111 yards in a win against the Packers last week. With a balanced offense and the second-best rushing defense in the league, the Titans are looking like a Super Bowl sleeper. Pick: Titans +1.5
Image
Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke runs with his arms raised above his head, as if signaling touchdown, in celebration in a game against the Eagles.
Washington Coach Ron Rivera named Taylor Henicke the team’s starting quarterback, even with Carson Wentz returning to practice.Credit...Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Commanders -4.5 | Total: 42
Taylor Heinicke has won four of his five starts for the Commanders this season, and Coach Ron Rivera officially named him the starter for the rest of the season. After upsetting the Eagles in Week 10, Heinicke and the Commanders became betting darlings: This week they attracted 66 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the early money. But even at 6-5, Washington is at the bottom of the N.F.C. East and will have to claw its way through the rest of the schedule if they’re going to make the postseason.
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For their part, the Falcons are a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the N.F.C. South and need to win the division to make it to the postseason. Neither of these offenses has been particularly impressive. The Commanders have averaged 4.5 yards per play and 165 passing yards per game over their last three games; the Falcons are relying heavily on running back Cordarrelle Patterson with tight end Kyle Pitts out with a medial collateral ligament injury. These teams match up well, so the points on the spread are valuable. Pick: Falcons +4.5
Chicago Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Jets -4.5 | Total: 39.5
The Jets had 2 yards of offense — an average of 2.7 inches per play — in the second half of a bad loss to the Patriots last week in Foxborough, Mass. A lot of the blame fell on the second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, who was benched in favor of Mike White on Wednesday.
Despite their record and not being able to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Bears have a far better outlook than the Jets. Justin Fields has been impressive keeping games close against playoff contenders, though he hurt his left shoulder and was listed as day to day. He’s a difference-maker and the backup Trevor Siemian is not. If Fields is out, the Jets’ defense will make quick work of chopping through the Bears’ terrible offensive line. Pick: Jets -4.5
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 46.5
The Eagles’ defensive line has wobbled against the run, a problem the team hoped to plug by acquiring the services of the veteran tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh ahead of Week 11. They’ll get tested against the Packers and Aaron Jones, a top-10 back who has 778 total yards and averages 5.4 yards per carry. Every week is a “must-win game” for the Packers, who need to go on a significant run to have a shot at a wild-card berth. Pick: Eagles -7
Sunday’s Other Games
Image
Buccaneers running back Rachaad White is looking to his left at two Seattle defenders pursuing him in the open field.
The rookie running back Rachaad White, left, has emerged for Tampa Bay in Leonard Fournette’s absence.Credit...Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Browns +3.5 | Total: 43
The Browns are treading water until they can install Deshaun Watson as the starting quarterback next week, at the end of his 11-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct code after more than two dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct in massage appointments. The Buccaneers are atop the N.F.C. South and may have running back Leonard Fournette available to play. Tampa Bay has been better without him, as the rookie Rachaad White has shown real promise. This game should be close, maybe within a field goal. That extra point on the three may end up spoiling a lot of Buccaneers backers’ days. Pick: Browns +3.5
New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: 49ers -9.5 | Total: 42.5
San Francisco has won three in a row, and the passing game owes a lot to Jimmy Garoppolo’s receivers: He has the highest percentage of yards after the catch of any team this season. The 49ers’ defense has not allowed a single point in the second half in each of their last three games, but is facing a Saints team coming off its best performance of the season in last week’s 27-20 defeat of the Rams. The Saints need to go on a late-season run to make the playoffs, but they’re in the worst division in the league so all is not lost.
Early action on the 49ers moved this line from 8 to 9.5, which may be too many points if the Saints play another game like they did last week. As of Wednesday, 80 percent of the money has been bet on the Saints. Pick: Saints +9.5
Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City (8-2), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Kansas City -15 | Total: 44
This game shouldn’t be too competitive, as evidenced by the largest point spread on the board this week. The Rams are likely getting so many points because of the absences of Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford, who together have been responsible for most of the Rams offense this season. Then consider Kansas City’s offensive firepower: Patrick Mahomes leads the N.F.L. in passing yards, first downs, and touchdowns, and his team has won four in a row.
But picking against the spread, 15 points is a lot for any matchup. No matter who fills in for Stafford this week, the Rams walk onto the field with a 15-point head start. It might be enough. Pick: Rams +15
The Rams Bet It All for a Title. The Tab Is Coming Due.
Nov. 23, 2022
Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-2), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Dolphins -13 | Total: 46
Could there be a more lopsided matchup this week? The Dolphins had last week off, but before their bye they won four games in a row behind Tua Tagovailoa, who has the best passer rating in the N.F.L. (83.1). The Texans, well, they have a real shot at the first overall pick in next year’s draft. But given Miami’s schedule — the Dolphins play the 49ers, Chargers and Bills in the next three weeks — they may rest key players if they get out to a big early lead. There’s a plausible scenario where the Texans sneak up and cover this double-digit spread. Pick: Texans +13
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Panthers +2.5 | Total: 36.5
The Broncos’ problems abound (coaching, quarterbacking, injuries) but the defense has more than pulled its weight. That should make things tough for Sam Darnold, who was named the starter over Baker Mayfield on Tuesday. These are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, so getting any points at all on the spread feels like a major advantage. Pick: Panthers +2.5
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Jaguars +4 | Total: 44
As has become a tradition, the Ravens have climbed on Lamar Jackson’s back to stay in contention as injuries have racked the lineup. The Jaguars have lost seven of their last eight, but have gradually improved, thanks in part to the running game (139.6 yards per game). Baltimore has had a tough time holding onto leads, and the Jaguars are on just enough of an upward tick to give the Ravens trouble. Pick: Jaguars +4
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7), 4:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Cardinals +5 | Total: 48
Kyler Murray is questionable after missing two games with a hamstring injury. If he is able to play, even a hobbled ground game might give Arizona an advantage. There’s no easier team to run against in the N.F.L. than the Chargers, who give up an average of 5.5 yards per carry. The market has struggled to settle on a number for this game and the line has vacillated between 3 and 5 points. The money has been evenly split in early action. Pick: Cardinals +5
Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4), 4:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Seahawks -3.5 | Total: 47.5
The Seahawks took a disappointing loss in Germany to the Buccaneers before their bye week, but they are still tied with the 49ers atop the N.F.C. West. Seattle’s defense had stiffened over the team’s last three games and shouldn’t have a problem with the Raiders at home. Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Monday Night’s Game
Image
Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt raises his arms above his head to encourage the Pittsburgh crowd to make noise.
T.J. Watt had an interception last week in a loss to Cincinnati.Credit...Matt Durisko/Associated Press
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1), 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Colts -2.5 | Total: 39
The Steelers’ defense looks a lot better now that both T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick have returned to the lineup. Pittsburgh is out of playoff contention at this point, but this is its final game on a Monday night this season, so look for the Steelers to show out. Pick: Steelers +2.5
How Betting Lines Work
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Buccaneers -2.5, for example, means that Tampa Bay must beat the Seahawks by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, which is whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
Betting-market data is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting data, and lines are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/24/sports/football/nfl-week-12-picks.html
N.F.L. Week 9 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
The Jets look to prove themselves against the Bills, the Dolphins and Bears will show off trade pickups, and Derrick Henry and the Titans face well rested Kansas City.
By David Hill
Published Nov. 3, 2022
Updated Nov. 4, 2022
Penalties drive N.F.L. coaches and fans crazy.
Some infractions, like offside and the false start, are fairly clear-cut to spot and have some correlation to a team’s skill and ability. They are generally the mark of a young roster — or one with inexperienced starters being asked to replace injured starters. The Broncos, Saints, Seahawks and Dolphins are the league’s most penalized teams, while Seattle and Miami join the Jets, Commanders and Ravens as teams at deficits when it comes to net penalty yards against opponents, according to nflpenalties.com.
The more subjective flags — where referees are asked to exercise independent judgment in deciding penalties like pass interference, roughing the passer, and unsportsmanlike conduct — are the ones that send fan bases and bettors into chaos.
Take Atlanta’s win over Carolina last week for example. P.J. Walker’s 62-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore with 12 seconds left in the fourth quarter tied the game, 34-34. The Panthers needed only to convert the extra-point attempt. But game officials decided that Moore’s removal of his helmet after the play amounted to unsportsmanlike conduct and tacked 15 yards onto the kick, which Eddy Piñeiro missed. The Falcons won, 37-34, on an overtime field goal.
All to say that, like Piñeiro, we had a down Week 8, and we’re looking to exercise our right as American football fans to blame the refs. It’s the halfway point, and our record sits at exactly .500.
Last week’s record: 7-8
Overall: 61-61-1
All times Eastern.
Sunday’s Best Games
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Falcons +3.5 | 49.5
The Falcons now sit atop the N.F.C. South with a .500 record, having outperformed preseason expectations, but their win over the Panthers last week was Atlanta’s first game as the favorite, and its first failure to cover the spread. This week, the Falcons are market underdogs again, getting a field goal at home against the Chargers, a team that’s likely to put Justin Herbert’s arm to use against a struggling secondary.
But the Chargers’ defense, which allows opponents an average of 5.7 yards per rush, will need to contend with the Falcons’ punishing ground attack, which should have more than enough juice to dominate. Pick: Falcons +3.5
Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Chicago Bears (3-5), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bears +5 | Total: 45
Tua Tagovailoa continues to put up big numbers throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Before Tuesday’s trade deadline, Miami added the Pro Bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb to a pass defense that ranks 29th in the league and has given up at least 300 passing yards in four games.
The help will come in handy, but it may not be enough against Chicago, which is playing its best football of the season and added receiver Chase Claypool in a trade with Pittsburgh. His new quarterback, Justin Fields, is not yet known for his arm, but he went 17 of 23 with two touchdowns and earned a career-best passer rating in a loss to Dallas last week. Pick: Bears +5
Buffalo Bills (6-1) at Jets (5-3), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Jets +13 | Total: 47
The air leaked out of the Jets’ sails last week, when the Patriots snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and Zach Wilson threw three interceptions, dropping his quarterback rating to the second-worst in the league. James Robinson, acquired from Jacksonville to replace the injured running back Breece Hall, carried the ball for only 17 total yards. The market didn’t like what it saw, and is giving the Jets two touchdowns against a Bills team that looks Super Bowl-bound.
The Bills had no problem covering the 14-point spread against the Steelers in Week 5 at home, but last week against the Packers they failed to cover the 10.5-point spread by a half point. Double-digit spreads are risky business in the N.F.L., especially with the favorite on the road. Pick: Jets +13
Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Washington Commanders (4-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Commanders +3.5 | Total: 43.5
The Vikings are first in the N.F.C. North at 6-1, but they have won each of their past five games by one possession. Last season, Minnesota went 6-8 in close games, so its record signals that the team has figured out how to claw victory from the jaws of defeat. The Vikings may be able to create more cushion after trading for the former Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson this week.
They’ll take on the best of the last-place teams, with Taylor Heinicke playing reasonably well in place of Carson Wentz, who is sidelined with a finger injury. Pick: Commanders +3.5
Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5), 4:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Cardinals -2 | Total: 50
These division rivals met in Week 6, when Seattle won, 19-9, as 3-point underdogs at home. This time, they’ll be playing in Arizona, and the line still opened with the Cardinals at -3. The market must not have liked that because early money moved the line to 2 and money continues to come in on Seattle, which has won its last three games. Geno Smith is now No. 1 in completion percentage in the N.F.L., despite being one of the most pressured quarterbacks. The odds of him winning the Most Valuable Player Award have gone from 300-1 at the start of the season to 28-1. Smith is valuable, and so are these two points. Pick: Seahawks +2
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5), 4:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 42.5
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Both of these recent Super Bowl contenders have struggled this season, and the market seems to be reacting to their slides. Tampa Bay has been favored in each of its games this season, but it is only 2-6 against the spread. The oddsmakers haven’t yet given up on the Buccaneers, who were a 1-point favorite against the Rams before losing to Baltimore last week: The line had Tampa Bay -3 as of Wednesday.
That may reflect bookmakers’ lack of confidence in the Rams’ trajectory more than the Buccaneers’ capabilities. Los Angeles benched running back Cam Akers for two games as the team explored, but did not find, trades. He is questionable to return this week, as is the backup running back Kyren Williams, who has been sidelined by a high ankle sprain. With the run game in flux, the Rams would love to count on receiver Cooper Kupp to play but he was listed as questionable (ankle). Pick: Buccaneers -3
Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Kansas City (5-2), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Kansas City -12.5 | Total: 46.5
Derrick Henry has averaged 130 yards per game during the Titans’ five-game win streak, and he made things easy for the rookie quarterback Malik Willis as he started his first game in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill last week: Of the Titans’ 26 plays in the second half, Willis passed the ball only once.
Tannehill was limited in practices and was questionable for Sunday. If he is unable to play, Tennessee will need a new game plan to beat a well rested Kansas City team. Coach Andy Reid is 20-3 over his career in games following bye weeks. This line opened at 11 and jumped to 12.5 within minutes. At that number, we’re happy to take the points and hope Henry can keep it close against a middling run defense. Pick: Titans +12.5
Sunday’s Other Games
Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Bengals -8 | Total: 43
The Bengals played one of their worst games of the season on Monday night against the Browns, and they were completely dismantled in a 32-13 loss on the road. The top receiver Ja’Marr Chase, is out indefinitely with a torn labrum and a fractured hip, and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is out for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The Panthers are playing teams closely and 8 points might be one too many, even with the Bengals at home. Pick: Panthers +8
Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Lions +3.5 | Total: 50
The Packers got a sneaky half-point backdoor cover against the Bills last week thanks to a Jaire Alexander pick of Josh Allen in the fourth quarter. Green Bay will need to win outright as favorites on the road against Detroit, which has lost five games in a row.
The Lions looked great while building a 27-17 first-half lead against the Dolphins last week, but they didn’t score in the second half. This is a good spot for the Packers to try to snap their four-game losing streak, but the Lions won’t just roll over for them at home. They’ll look to fix their second-half woes. Pick: Lions +3.5
Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at New England Patriots (4-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Patriots -5.5 | Total: 39.5
The Colts are tied for the most turnovers in the league with seven fumbles and nine interceptions. In his debut as the starter last week against Washington, a 17-16 loss, Sam Ehlinger lost only one fumble and didn’t throw any interceptions. He also didn’t throw any touchdowns. That’s an improvement, but it won’t cut it against a New England team that just goaded the Jets’ Zach Wilson into three picks last week. Pick: Patriots -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Jaguars +1.5 | Total: 47.5
The Raiders haven’t won on the road this season and they didn’t come close last week, getting shut out by New Orleans as road favorites. Davante Adams, who was rumored to be sick, caught just one pass for 37 yards and Las Vegas didn’t cross midfield on a drive until the game’s final minutes.
Jacksonville has been inconsistent this season, outscoring opponents in the first and third quarters and getting beaten in the second and fourth. The second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has taken heat for costly interceptions, including one on the first play of what could have been a game-winning drive against Denver last week. Returning home could be just the boost that’s needed. Pick: Jaguars +1.5
Monday Night’s Game
Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5), 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Saints +3 | Total: 48.5
The Saints’ defense shut the Raiders out last week, and Andy Dalton threw for 229 yards, two touchdowns and, most important, zero interceptions. That’s a significant development as the Saints face the league’s top tackler, linebacker Roquan Smith, whom the Ravens traded for this week.
But Baltimore is dealing with injuries to tight end Mark Andrews (shoulder, ankle; questionable), Rashod Bateman (foot; out) and Gus Edwards (hamstring) and New Orleans is trying to make up ground in a wide-open N.F.C. South. Pick: Saints +3
Thursday’s Result
Philadelphia Eagles 29, Houston Texans 17
In a surprising turn, The Texans scored on their first possession, and had the game tied at 14-14 at halftime. Playing without their top two receivers, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, Houston’s rookie running back Dameon Pierce rushed 27 times for 139 yards.
But the Eagles (8-0) rallied back in the third quarter, capitalizing on C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s interception of a Davis Mills pass with a short touchdown drive, and following that with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive on the next possession.
It was a closer call than their records would have indicated and though Philadelphia extended their unbeaten streak, the Eagles didn’t cover the 14-point spread. We picked the Texans (1-6-1) hoping they’d stay within the spread and came out on top. The Thursday night curse for this column is over.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/sports/football/nfl-week-9-picks.html
Dan Snyder has taken a major step in the direction of selling the Washington Commanders.
Snyder and his wife Tanya have hired Bank of America Securities “to consider potential transactions” for the franchise that Snyder has owned since 1999, the team announced. According to Forbes, the 57-year-old already has at least four calls from people interested in buying the team.
Regarding whether Snyder was considering selling all or part of the team, a Commanders spokesperson told the Associated Press, “We are exploring all options.”
https://nypost.com/2022/11/02/dan-snyder-takes-huge-step-toward-selling-washington-commanders/
We caught that on the radio and the announcers had fun with it. And congrats on winning the tie break in college pickems. We all finished in a dead heat.
The Giants actually played pretty well. I think they just weren't quite prepared for Seattle's "chaos football".
I'm still not convinced that Seattle should have had to take the penalty that the Ref assessed on the Mariners!
Well picked the Giants thinking they were for real this year. Then they went to Seattle and got beat.
Watched the Panthers completely blow the game at the end. They are holding tryouts this morning for a field goal / extra point kicker this morning.
Completely stupid move taking off the helmet after a TD catch in Atl by the Panthers. Hopefully they made him take the bus home.
lol I know some agents, I think it's fair and definitely reasonable. let's talk about football.
I still took Dallas today, they are going to destroy my bears.
Funny line as it turned out.
"Any time you hear the FBI use the words witness protection, you can bet you've got a problem."[2]
LOL just went back and found a page...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_J._Corbitt
it doesn't even begin to explain how scary that guy was. I didn't know until later.
Willow Springs is where we played ball. LOL there was so much shady shit going on around here when I was a kid. Alan Masters was my lawyer on my first DUI. The guy who I first worked for building houses was Tony Acardo's cousin.
The Testa's owned a trailer park that I used to play in. It was an amusement park called playland that was really cool for a little guy.
never played t-ball. It's funny to watch though. My dad always coached the high school aged guys and never coached me. I was pitching and catching in little league way before I should have started. At 9, I played on our 12 year old all star teams.
I was a little runt back then but I knew the game from going to practice and shagging balls with the big dudes. I could hit anything but it just never went that far. Was a quick little guy and learned how to place hit and bunt. Once on the bases I stole my way to third easily and just waited for someone to hit me home. Had really good glove too, nothing got past me.
LOL you did the right thing with the little one. When I was 10 there was a girl who played on our team that was 14 or so and was fully developed who liked me a lot, she was always hugging and kissing on me in the dugout. I had boobs in my face all game long. My dad told me to stay away from her and concentrate on the game. I never knew why.
She was the daughter of one of the most corrupt mobbed up sheriffs that this county has ever seen. That's how she was allowed to play in our age group. He died in prison and she later died from an overdose. We were secret friends even though dad and mom did not approve.
She taught me things that I never should have learned at that age but I'm a better person now because of it. Baseball can be fun.
Sure! I really like lagers. I'll see if I can find it anywhere.
May I suggest a new beer for you to try.
https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/49824/310603/
Seahawks should not be favored against the Giants. We are not a good 4th quarter team.
However- the Giants will need to find a way to stop KWIII.
Thursday’s Result
Baltimore Ravens 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Line: Buccaneers +2 | Total: 45.5
Tom Brady hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass for six straight quarters until he connected with Julio Jones with 49 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, that touchdown pass came too late to make a difference. Brady was frustrated throughout the game by dropped passes and costly penalties that cut Tampa Bay’s drives short.
Stayed too long at the dance.
N.F.L. Week 8 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game
The 49ers and Rams battle to keep pace with in the N.F.C. West, while Geno Smith and the Seahawks put their winning streak up against that of Daniel Jones and the Giants.
By David Hill
Published Oct. 27, 2022
Updated Oct. 28, 2022
Bookmakers’ power ratings differ quite a bit from the usual rankings pundits put together. Their ratings — a number of points a team should win by against the average team on a neutral field — take into account all available data, and are combined to come up with an opening point spread. But, remarkably, bookmakers’ power ratings, and thus, spreads, don’t factor in win-loss records.
And so the Rams (3-3), Jets (5-2), Giants (6-1) and Ravens (4-3, heading into Thursday night) all entered this week as market underdogs despite having better records than their respective opponents. Teams can play well and lose, or play poorly and win. Data can tell us things about a team that aren’t obvious from the box score, or even watching the game.
Case in point are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who dropped precipitously in value among the chattering class, but continued to sit in the top 10 among more quantitative rankings. That’s because the data is slower to react to a single game — the Buccaneers’ brutal loss to the Panthers last week — than the rest of us. Inpredictable, a site that rates teams based on betting market data, adjusts their model from the past week’s results by only 15 percent. (They dropped the Buccaneers from third to eighth ahead of Tampa Bay’s 27-22 loss to Baltimore on Thursday).
Hunches may prove correct in time, but short term results can be overreactions. Each week presents a new opponent with its own strengths and weaknesses; a new opportunity for listing ships to be righted.
Last week’s record: 7-7
Overall: 54-53-1
All times Eastern.
Here’s what you need to know:
Sunday’s Best Games
Sunday’s Other Games
Monday Night’s Game
Thursday’s Result
How Betting Lines Work
Sunday’s Best Games
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Vikings -3.5 | Line: 49
Sharp bettors have been eager to find a spot to bet against the Vikings, who many believe are worse than their 5-1 record would indicate. This may be that spot, because bettors brought this line down from 5.5 to 3.5 in early action. The Vikings are coming off a bye week, and the Cardinals played on Thursday night, so each team should be fresh. DeAndre Hopkins had 103 yards in his return to the lineup last week giving Arizona a huge boost — and Kyler Murray a go-to option besides the quarterback keeper. Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Saints +2 | Total: 49
Last week the Saints lost a 42-34 shootout to the Cardinals, with Andy Dalton throwing three interceptions (including two that were returned for touchdowns). But Dalton and Taysom Hill still combined for 409 passing yards, the third highest total of any team last week, proving that even with injuries to Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, New Orleans’s offense can execute. Both are questionable for Sunday and Coach Dennis Allen on Wednesday named Dalton the starter for the season.
Turnovers continue to cost the Saints and this game may come down to ball possession and stopping the Raiders’ reinvigorated run game, which has seen running back Josh Jacobs go off for 140 or more yards in each of Las Vegas’s last three games. New Orleans ranks 22nd in the league against the rush and both teams have median scores in the 50s, so the total of 49 seems low. Pick: Saints +2
Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Cowboys -9 | Total: 42
The line for this game was as high as 11 before Justin Fields seemed to beat the New England Patriots all by himself on Monday night, keeping the ball 14 times and rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown. By Tuesday morning the line had moved to 9. Dallas had their way with Detroit last week, holding the Lions to just two field goals and scoring 24 points in Dak Prescott’s return to action. The Cowboys and the Bears both have strong defenses, which hopefully will keep this point spread in the single digits. Pick: Cowboys -9
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Rams +2 | Total: 43
The 49ers trounced the Rams, 24-9, in Week 4 but enter the N.F.C. West rematch after taking a 21-point beat down from Kansas City. For once, though, the Rams aren’t the team with the huge trade acquisition: San Francisco brought in Christian McCaffery from Carolina last Thursday and the running back put up 62 yards on 10 touches in his 49ers debut. He could shoulder more of the load — and ensure that Deebo Samuels gets more receiver reps if his hamstring allows him to start Sunday.
The Rams are coming off a bye week following a confidence-boosting win against McCaffery’s old team, and have a top-10 defense that is well rested. This should be a close game, but the combination of home field advantage and the points gives the Rams a very slight edge. Pick: Rams +2
Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Seahawks -3 | Total: 45.5
It says a lot that the Giants are getting points against the Seahawks despite their four-game winning streak, victories over quality opponents, all of which have come after trailing in the second half. Daniel Jones leads the N.F.L. in fourth-quarter comebacks and the team is +32 points in the final 15 minutes of games. It seems the market is waiting for the Giants to come back to Earth: They’re underdogs yet again this week, which may be fueled by the absence of a single Giants receiver with 200 receiving yards for the season.
DK Metcalf left the Seahawks’ win over the Chargers last week with a knee injury, but participated in walk-throughs and is questionable for Sunday. Geno Smith still put up an incredible passing attack (20 of 27 passing for 210 yards and two touchdowns) without Metcalf, and continues to be a top-10 quarterback in nearly every category. Pick: Seahawks -3
Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Bills -10.5 | Total: 47
Buffalo, now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, has a way of turning even venerated quarterbacks into underdogs. Before their Week 6 drubbing of Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes had never been a home underdog in his career. This week, it’s the first time in Aaron Rodgers’s 18-year career that he has entered a game as a double-digit underdog.
That owes as much to the Packers’ recent struggles as much as to the Bills’ prowess. Green Bay’s three-game slide hit a new low against Washington last week, with the Packers managing just 232 yards of total offense and going 0 for 6 on third downs. The Bills had a Week 7 bye yet the market still moved this number from 8 to as high as 11.5 early this week based solely on the Packers’ performance against the Commanders. If the number keeps climbing, bettors will likely buy back on the Packers at 13, and at that number we’d pick Green Bay as well. Until then, we’re sticking with the Bills. Pick: Bills -10.5
Sunday’s Other Games
Denver Broncos (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), 9:30 a.m., ESPN+
Line: Jaguars -2.5 | Total: 39
The Jaguars, playing the franchise’s ninth game in London, should be no strangers to adjusting to the overseas trip while the Broncos will schlep from a much farther distance. Despite this technically being a neutral field, this week we gave the Jaguars a half point. Early action has favored the Jaguars, who have gone from 4-point favorites to -2.5. That might be the public betting against the Broncos, who only scored 9 points playing without Russell Wilson last week in a loss to the Jets. That game was a huge loss for sportsbooks since a ton of money came in on the Jets.
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Despite the narrow defeat, Denver managed to come within one play of victory thanks to a heroic effort from their defense, who enter this week the third-best in the league. Russell Wilson is questionable for the game but was expected to return for Sunday’s game. We picked Denver last week and we aren’t afraid to pick them again. Pick: Broncos +2.5
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4), 1 p.m., Fox
Line: Falcons -4 | Total: 41
The Falcons are tied for first in the N.F.C. South with the Panthers trailing by just one game in a division where no team has a winning record, so this matchup could have major playoff implications. Playing behind interim head coach Steve Wilks and having traded Christian McCaffrey, Carolina was a double-digit underdog ahead of last week’s huge upset of Tampa Bay. They plan to start P.J. Walker against the Falcons’ banged up secondary, which lost safety Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion) and cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) to injuries last week.
The line moved on Monday from 6.5 to 4 after early money came in on the Panthers. This marks the first game the Falcons have been favored all season, and their first matchup since snapping their unbeaten-against-the-spread streak last week in Cincinnati. Pick: Falcons -4
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Lions +3 | Line: 51.5
The Lions have only scored 6 points in the last two weeks, their lowest two-week total since 1993. Through their first two games, Detroit was the league’s top-scoring offense and many of the team’s recent scoring woes can be attributed to the absences of running back D’Andre Swift (missed three games) and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (one). Swift is expected to return this week and bookmakers must believe that having the pair back in the lineup will mean a return to that form, because this total of 51.5 points is the highest of any game this week. Miami failed to cover in a close Week 7 game against the Steelers with Tua Tagovailoa back under center. This game should be close. Pick: Dolphins -3
Image
Mac Jones, right, returned from an ankle injury last week but ceded quarterback duties to Bailey Zappe in a loss to the Bears. Jones is expected to start against the Jets on Sunday.
Mac Jones, right, returned from an ankle injury last week but ceded quarterback duties to Bailey Zappe in a loss to the Bears. Jones is expected to start against the Jets on Sunday.Credit...Stew Milne/Associated Press
New England Patriots (3-4) at Jets (5-2), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Jets +2.5 | Total: 41
The Jets are missing rookie running back Breece Hall, who tore his torn anterior cruciate ligament last week, a huge loss of the offense’s most important player that came just as offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker tore his triceps. The Jets will try to slot James Robinson into Hall’s roll after a trade with Jacksonville.
For the Patriots, Bailey Zappe stepped into Mac Jones’s starting spot after Jones threw six passes and an interception in a loss to the Bears on Monday night. Zappe put together back-to-back electric touchdown drives to close the half, but in the second half threw two interceptions of his own. Bill Belichick named Jones the starter this week, but New England needs work before laying points on the road. Pick: Jets +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0), 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Eagles -11 | Total: 44
The Steelers just barely covered the spread last week against the Dolphins in a game in which neither team scored a single point in the second half. Unbeaten Philadelphia has only won two of its games by double digits. Pittsburgh has kept all but two of its games within six points. The Eagles should continue their winning streak, but the Steelers could cover. Pick: Steelers +11
Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1), 4:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Texans +1 | Total: 40.5
On paper, the Titans don’t look much better than the Texans, despite the dramatic difference in the teams’ records. Tennessee only had 241 yards of total offense on Sunday and have the second-lowest average yards per play in the league, but win games behind their defense forcing turnovers and then grinding out the clock out with Derrick Henry runs. The line was as high as 3.5 but those numbers were all quickly snatched up. Now the line sits at 1, a hill the Titans can get over. Pick: Titans -1
Washington Commanders (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1), 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Colts -3 | Total: 39.5
Colts Coach Frank Reich benched Matt Ryan being benched for the season in favor of backup Sam Ehlinger, but the market isn’t overreacting to that news or the Commanders’ upset of the Packers last week: Indianapolis is favored to win by a field goal. That could be because Washington’s big victory also came behind a backup quarterback, Taylor Heinicke. Week after week, the Commanders have attracted sharp money and so far this week the public and the pros seem to be on the same side, taking the points with Washington. Pick: Commanders +3
Monday Night’s Game
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5), 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Browns +3 | Total: 48
After starting the season 1-2, Cincinnati rebounded, going 3-1 after Joe Burrow return to the shotgun: He took long snaps in 90 percent of their possessions in the last two weeks. The move has helped Burrow get back to airing out passes. Last week he led the league with 481 passing yards in a rout of the Falcons.
The Browns are trending in the opposite direction. After starting 2-1, Cleveland is 0-4 since. But with Nick Chubb, the Browns rely on a consistent running game that might be a path to covering at home against the Bengals, who added four members of their defensive front to the injury list. Pick: Bengals -3
Thursday’s Result
Baltimore Ravens 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Line: Buccaneers +2 | Total: 45.5
Tom Brady hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass for six straight quarters until he connected with Julio Jones with 49 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, that touchdown pass came too late to make a difference. Brady was frustrated throughout the game by dropped passes and costly penalties that cut Tampa Bay’s drives short.
The Ravens controlled the ball and kept the Buccaneers’ defense busy with a balanced attack of ground and air: 231 rushing yards and 238 receiving yards led by rookie Isaiah Likely’s 77 yards and his first N.F.L. touchdown. We picked the Buccaneers +2 believing this would be a get-right game. Tampa Bay did not get right, and neither did we. The Thursday night curse for this column continues.
How Betting Lines Work
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Packers -8.5, for example, means that Green Bay must beat the Giants by at least 9 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, which is whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
Betting-market data is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting data, and lines are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/sports/football/nfl-week-8-predictions.html
I loved coaching t-ball. One year I had a little girl whose grandfather played minor league baseball. He bought her pink sneakers a pink glove and a pink batting helmet with a hole cut out for her blonde pony tail. She was cute as a button.
On team photo day she comes up to me and says coach can you tuck in my jersey for the team photo. I said to her this is a job for your mom. Let's go find her.
Oh, I know but that clip was special. I just hope the little first baseman who got beaned came out okay. The coach taking the bat off his knees acted like it was a regular occurrence.
and the kid running, (well more like prancing) straight to second base?
priceless.
I had a league ball in my hand at four years old but that was only because of my father being a coach and a pro umpire that drilled it into me so sometimes it gets a little disturbing watching stuff like that.
The toddler league is often hilarious!
LOLOLOL... Put me in coach!
https://twitter.com/jonslater37/status/1585774095924449282
lol, so much for my bears theory. Dusted out of three survivor pools tonight too. hooray bears... bastards.
A Seahawk to watch. RB- Rookie- Kenneth walker III.
Got moves, speed, style and determination.
lol, I saw that. I actually had Washington at -1. I gave my little buddy 100 bucks for the win...
I'm gonna throw a benji down every week from now and by the end of the year either he or his folks can do something with it for him that I don't need.
I know I shouldn't be gambling anymore but this is like taking candy from a baby.
this team is pathetic.
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"Talk is cheap. Play the game."
"If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?"
-Vince Lombardi
Link to NFL injury list- http://www.nfl.com/injuries
http://www.superbowl.com/
http://www.nfl.com/
NFL weekly favorites and spreads.
http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-odds-lines-spreads-week-1/wtq0fgkwbmps0sftbuvknima
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