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N.F.L. Week 8 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game
The 49ers and Rams battle to keep pace with in the N.F.C. West, while Geno Smith and the Seahawks put their winning streak up against that of Daniel Jones and the Giants.

By David Hill
Published Oct. 27, 2022
Updated Oct. 28, 2022
Bookmakers’ power ratings differ quite a bit from the usual rankings pundits put together. Their ratings — a number of points a team should win by against the average team on a neutral field — take into account all available data, and are combined to come up with an opening point spread. But, remarkably, bookmakers’ power ratings, and thus, spreads, don’t factor in win-loss records.

And so the Rams (3-3), Jets (5-2), Giants (6-1) and Ravens (4-3, heading into Thursday night) all entered this week as market underdogs despite having better records than their respective opponents. Teams can play well and lose, or play poorly and win. Data can tell us things about a team that aren’t obvious from the box score, or even watching the game.

Case in point are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who dropped precipitously in value among the chattering class, but continued to sit in the top 10 among more quantitative rankings. That’s because the data is slower to react to a single game — the Buccaneers’ brutal loss to the Panthers last week — than the rest of us. Inpredictable, a site that rates teams based on betting market data, adjusts their model from the past week’s results by only 15 percent. (They dropped the Buccaneers from third to eighth ahead of Tampa Bay’s 27-22 loss to Baltimore on Thursday).

Hunches may prove correct in time, but short term results can be overreactions. Each week presents a new opponent with its own strengths and weaknesses; a new opportunity for listing ships to be righted.

Last week’s record: 7-7

Overall: 54-53-1

All times Eastern.

Here’s what you need to know:
Sunday’s Best Games
Sunday’s Other Games
Monday Night’s Game
Thursday’s Result
How Betting Lines Work
Sunday’s Best Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1), 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Vikings -3.5 | Line: 49

Sharp bettors have been eager to find a spot to bet against the Vikings, who many believe are worse than their 5-1 record would indicate. This may be that spot, because bettors brought this line down from 5.5 to 3.5 in early action. The Vikings are coming off a bye week, and the Cardinals played on Thursday night, so each team should be fresh. DeAndre Hopkins had 103 yards in his return to the lineup last week giving Arizona a huge boost — and Kyler Murray a go-to option besides the quarterback keeper. Pick: Cardinals +3.5

Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5), 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Saints +2 | Total: 49

Last week the Saints lost a 42-34 shootout to the Cardinals, with Andy Dalton throwing three interceptions (including two that were returned for touchdowns). But Dalton and Taysom Hill still combined for 409 passing yards, the third highest total of any team last week, proving that even with injuries to Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, New Orleans’s offense can execute. Both are questionable for Sunday and Coach Dennis Allen on Wednesday named Dalton the starter for the season.

Turnovers continue to cost the Saints and this game may come down to ball possession and stopping the Raiders’ reinvigorated run game, which has seen running back Josh Jacobs go off for 140 or more yards in each of Las Vegas’s last three games. New Orleans ranks 22nd in the league against the rush and both teams have median scores in the 50s, so the total of 49 seems low. Pick: Saints +2

Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2), 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Cowboys -9 | Total: 42

The line for this game was as high as 11 before Justin Fields seemed to beat the New England Patriots all by himself on Monday night, keeping the ball 14 times and rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown. By Tuesday morning the line had moved to 9. Dallas had their way with Detroit last week, holding the Lions to just two field goals and scoring 24 points in Dak Prescott’s return to action. The Cowboys and the Bears both have strong defenses, which hopefully will keep this point spread in the single digits. Pick: Cowboys -9

San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3), 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Rams +2 | Total: 43

The 49ers trounced the Rams, 24-9, in Week 4 but enter the N.F.C. West rematch after taking a 21-point beat down from Kansas City. For once, though, the Rams aren’t the team with the huge trade acquisition: San Francisco brought in Christian McCaffery from Carolina last Thursday and the running back put up 62 yards on 10 touches in his 49ers debut. He could shoulder more of the load — and ensure that Deebo Samuels gets more receiver reps if his hamstring allows him to start Sunday.

The Rams are coming off a bye week following a confidence-boosting win against McCaffery’s old team, and have a top-10 defense that is well rested. This should be a close game, but the combination of home field advantage and the points gives the Rams a very slight edge. Pick: Rams +2

Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3), 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Seahawks -3 | Total: 45.5

It says a lot that the Giants are getting points against the Seahawks despite their four-game winning streak, victories over quality opponents, all of which have come after trailing in the second half. Daniel Jones leads the N.F.L. in fourth-quarter comebacks and the team is +32 points in the final 15 minutes of games. It seems the market is waiting for the Giants to come back to Earth: They’re underdogs yet again this week, which may be fueled by the absence of a single Giants receiver with 200 receiving yards for the season.

DK Metcalf left the Seahawks’ win over the Chargers last week with a knee injury, but participated in walk-throughs and is questionable for Sunday. Geno Smith still put up an incredible passing attack (20 of 27 passing for 210 yards and two touchdowns) without Metcalf, and continues to be a top-10 quarterback in nearly every category. Pick: Seahawks -3

Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1), 8:20 p.m., NBC

Line: Bills -10.5 | Total: 47

Buffalo, now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, has a way of turning even venerated quarterbacks into underdogs. Before their Week 6 drubbing of Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes had never been a home underdog in his career. This week, it’s the first time in Aaron Rodgers’s 18-year career that he has entered a game as a double-digit underdog.

That owes as much to the Packers’ recent struggles as much as to the Bills’ prowess. Green Bay’s three-game slide hit a new low against Washington last week, with the Packers managing just 232 yards of total offense and going 0 for 6 on third downs. The Bills had a Week 7 bye yet the market still moved this number from 8 to as high as 11.5 early this week based solely on the Packers’ performance against the Commanders. If the number keeps climbing, bettors will likely buy back on the Packers at 13, and at that number we’d pick Green Bay as well. Until then, we’re sticking with the Bills. Pick: Bills -10.5

Sunday’s Other Games
Denver Broncos (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), 9:30 a.m., ESPN+

Line: Jaguars -2.5 | Total: 39

The Jaguars, playing the franchise’s ninth game in London, should be no strangers to adjusting to the overseas trip while the Broncos will schlep from a much farther distance. Despite this technically being a neutral field, this week we gave the Jaguars a half point. Early action has favored the Jaguars, who have gone from 4-point favorites to -2.5. That might be the public betting against the Broncos, who only scored 9 points playing without Russell Wilson last week in a loss to the Jets. That game was a huge loss for sportsbooks since a ton of money came in on the Jets.

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Despite the narrow defeat, Denver managed to come within one play of victory thanks to a heroic effort from their defense, who enter this week the third-best in the league. Russell Wilson is questionable for the game but was expected to return for Sunday’s game. We picked Denver last week and we aren’t afraid to pick them again. Pick: Broncos +2.5

Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4), 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Falcons -4 | Total: 41

The Falcons are tied for first in the N.F.C. South with the Panthers trailing by just one game in a division where no team has a winning record, so this matchup could have major playoff implications. Playing behind interim head coach Steve Wilks and having traded Christian McCaffrey, Carolina was a double-digit underdog ahead of last week’s huge upset of Tampa Bay. They plan to start P.J. Walker against the Falcons’ banged up secondary, which lost safety Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion) and cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) to injuries last week.

The line moved on Monday from 6.5 to 4 after early money came in on the Panthers. This marks the first game the Falcons have been favored all season, and their first matchup since snapping their unbeaten-against-the-spread streak last week in Cincinnati. Pick: Falcons -4

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5), 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Lions +3 | Line: 51.5

The Lions have only scored 6 points in the last two weeks, their lowest two-week total since 1993. Through their first two games, Detroit was the league’s top-scoring offense and many of the team’s recent scoring woes can be attributed to the absences of running back D’Andre Swift (missed three games) and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (one). Swift is expected to return this week and bookmakers must believe that having the pair back in the lineup will mean a return to that form, because this total of 51.5 points is the highest of any game this week. Miami failed to cover in a close Week 7 game against the Steelers with Tua Tagovailoa back under center. This game should be close. Pick: Dolphins -3

Image
Mac Jones, right, returned from an ankle injury last week but ceded quarterback duties to Bailey Zappe in a loss to the Bears. Jones is expected to start against the Jets on Sunday.
Mac Jones, right, returned from an ankle injury last week but ceded quarterback duties to Bailey Zappe in a loss to the Bears. Jones is expected to start against the Jets on Sunday.Credit...Stew Milne/Associated Press

New England Patriots (3-4) at Jets (5-2), 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Jets +2.5 | Total: 41

The Jets are missing rookie running back Breece Hall, who tore his torn anterior cruciate ligament last week, a huge loss of the offense’s most important player that came just as offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker tore his triceps. The Jets will try to slot James Robinson into Hall’s roll after a trade with Jacksonville.

For the Patriots, Bailey Zappe stepped into Mac Jones’s starting spot after Jones threw six passes and an interception in a loss to the Bears on Monday night. Zappe put together back-to-back electric touchdown drives to close the half, but in the second half threw two interceptions of his own. Bill Belichick named Jones the starter this week, but New England needs work before laying points on the road. Pick: Jets +2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0), 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Eagles -11 | Total: 44

The Steelers just barely covered the spread last week against the Dolphins in a game in which neither team scored a single point in the second half. Unbeaten Philadelphia has only won two of its games by double digits. Pittsburgh has kept all but two of its games within six points. The Eagles should continue their winning streak, but the Steelers could cover. Pick: Steelers +11

Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1), 4:05 p.m., CBS

Line: Texans +1 | Total: 40.5

On paper, the Titans don’t look much better than the Texans, despite the dramatic difference in the teams’ records. Tennessee only had 241 yards of total offense on Sunday and have the second-lowest average yards per play in the league, but win games behind their defense forcing turnovers and then grinding out the clock out with Derrick Henry runs. The line was as high as 3.5 but those numbers were all quickly snatched up. Now the line sits at 1, a hill the Titans can get over. Pick: Titans -1

Washington Commanders (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1), 4:25 p.m., Fox

Line: Colts -3 | Total: 39.5

Colts Coach Frank Reich benched Matt Ryan being benched for the season in favor of backup Sam Ehlinger, but the market isn’t overreacting to that news or the Commanders’ upset of the Packers last week: Indianapolis is favored to win by a field goal. That could be because Washington’s big victory also came behind a backup quarterback, Taylor Heinicke. Week after week, the Commanders have attracted sharp money and so far this week the public and the pros seem to be on the same side, taking the points with Washington. Pick: Commanders +3

Monday Night’s Game
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5), 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Line: Browns +3 | Total: 48

After starting the season 1-2, Cincinnati rebounded, going 3-1 after Joe Burrow return to the shotgun: He took long snaps in 90 percent of their possessions in the last two weeks. The move has helped Burrow get back to airing out passes. Last week he led the league with 481 passing yards in a rout of the Falcons.

The Browns are trending in the opposite direction. After starting 2-1, Cleveland is 0-4 since. But with Nick Chubb, the Browns rely on a consistent running game that might be a path to covering at home against the Bengals, who added four members of their defensive front to the injury list. Pick: Bengals -3

Thursday’s Result
Baltimore Ravens 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

Line: Buccaneers +2 | Total: 45.5

Tom Brady hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass for six straight quarters until he connected with Julio Jones with 49 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, that touchdown pass came too late to make a difference. Brady was frustrated throughout the game by dropped passes and costly penalties that cut Tampa Bay’s drives short.

The Ravens controlled the ball and kept the Buccaneers’ defense busy with a balanced attack of ground and air: 231 rushing yards and 238 receiving yards led by rookie Isaiah Likely’s 77 yards and his first N.F.L. touchdown. We picked the Buccaneers +2 believing this would be a get-right game. Tampa Bay did not get right, and neither did we. The Thursday night curse for this column continues.

How Betting Lines Work
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Packers -8.5, for example, means that Green Bay must beat the Giants by at least 9 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, which is whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.

Betting-market data is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting data, and lines are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/sports/football/nfl-week-8-predictions.html