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$ATOS $2.29 back down from mid day highs, added more on this dip. 510k Notification mid March. low volume drop and most indicators reset & coiled.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atossa-genetics-submits-premarket-510-133000889.html
CHTP in long options march strangle ... hoping for a big move next week. Could be an awesome valentines day gift!
86% is the magic number...
According to a McKinnsey Study based on approval of drugs between 2001 and 2010, whopping 86% of the time the FDA would approve on AdCom positive suggestion, Study states that it also depends a bit on other factors too such as sensitity/specificity, meetings, and 'number of days' it took to get there.
FDA Advisory Commitee Outcomes
McKinsey Center for Government
FDA Advisory
Committee Outcomes
Philip Ma, Navjot Singh, Jeff Smith, Seth Townsend
FDA Advisory
Committee Outcomes
FDA advisory committee meetings are high-stakes interactions, with many years of effort,
millions of dollars of investment, potential regulatory approval, and billions of dollars in
potential sales for a new drug riding on the outcome. We have analyzed publicly available
data and established a fact base that provides all stakeholders with a better characterization
and greater transparency into the outcomes of advisory committee meetings. We also
consider the implications for how sponsors can use this information to improve R&D
decision-making.
During the pre-market review process for drugs
and medical devices, many regulatory agencies
seek unbiased advice from external experts to
address areas of scientific or technical uncertainty.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in
particular has a well-defined process for obtaining
expert input from its advisory committees and
incorporating the input into its review processes.
FDA reviewers complete an initial review of a
product application and identify questions where
external input is needed. The FDA then convenes
an advisory committee meeting and obtains
the requested input through a combination
of presentations, discussion, and voting by
committee members. After the meeting, FDA
reviewers take into account the input received
when making product approval decisions,
although the recommendations of the committee
are not binding.
FDA advisory committee meetings are high-stakes
interactions, with many years of effort, millions
of dollars of investment, potential regulatory
approval, and billions of dollars in potential sales
for a new drug riding on the outcome. However,
despite the fact that sponsors recognize the
crucial nature of these meetings and are familiar
with the processes, we have found limitations in
the quantitative understanding of their outcomes.
In this article, we have analyzed publicly available
data on FDA advisory committee meetings with
the aim of helping to address these limitations. We
investigated several important issues, including
the total number of meetings by type and
therapeutic area, the frequency with which new
product applications are subjected to advisory
committee meetings, consistency between the
advisory committee votes and FDA approval
decisions, and the duration between an advisory
committee meeting and the final FDA approval
date for a product.
1
Exhibit 1 | Characteristics of FDA advisory committee meetings between 2001 and 2010.
All other
meetings (262)
AC meetings
for drugs
2001–2010 (543)
Original NDAs
or BLAs (190)
NDA- or BLA-
focused
meetings (281)
Voting on approval
question (63)
c 50
Voting, all others (70)
No voting (57)
Supplemental
NDAs or BLAs (91)
Voting, all others (26)
43.8
35.9
32.8
Voting on approval
question (22)
43.8
41.4
40
a
42.9
35.2
31.6
0 37.0
30
20
No voting (43)
b
10
8.2%
8.2%
M
lN
7.5%
13.5%
6.4%
Al
281
meetings
0
??Oncological drugs AC
??Cardiovascular and renal drugs AC
??Anti-infective drugs AC
??Endocrinological and metabolic drugs AC
??Antiviral drugs AC
??Psychopharmacological drugs AC
??Arthritis AC
??All others
5.3%
21.4%
29.5%
All NMEs (2001–2010)
??Date
??Molecule type
??Priority status
??Orphan status
a | Overall characteristics of 543 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee (AC) meetings held for drugs between 2001 and 2010.
b | Distribution by committee of the 281 meetings focused on new drug applications (NDAs) or biologics license applications (BLAs).
c | Percentage of approved new molecular entities (NMEs) that were the subject of an AC meeting. NBE, new biological entity; NCE, new chemical entity.
Analysis
We conducted an outside-in analysis of the
outcomes of FDA advisory committee meetings
held for drugs during the decade from 2001
to 2010 by reviewing publicly accessible
materials, including meeting minutes, posted
on the FDA’s website.
32.8% in the 2001–2005 period to 41.4% in the
2006–2010 period, suggesting a slight increase
in the FDA’s use of advisory committee input to
help inform product approval decisions. Additional
data analysis shows that new biologics, priority
status applications, and orphan drugs were the
subject of more meetings, on a percentage basis,
than new chemical entities, standard applications,
and non-orphan drugs.
Of the 543 total advisory committee meetings
held for drugs in the 2001-2010 period (Exhibit
1a), 281 were focused on a single product, of
which 190 were for original new drug applications
(NDAs) and biologics license applications (BLAs),
and 91 were for supplemental NDAs or BLAs.
The distribution of meetings by therapeutic area
is shown in Exhibit 1b. With regard to novel drugs,
37% of FDA-approved new chemical entities or
new biological entities in the 2001–2010 period
were the subject of an advisory committee meeting
(Exhibit 1c). This percentage increased from
We considered in detail a subset of 63 of the 190
meetings related to original NDAs or BLAs, at
which committee members were asked to vote
for or against approval of the drug of interest. In
the analysis, we looked at the voting record to
determine whether the committee provided an
endorsement for the approval of the drug (identi-
fied as a simple majority of votes recommending
approval). We then identified whether the FDA
2
Exhibit 2 | Analysis of a subset of 63 FDA advisory committee meetings that included votes for or against the
approval of a new drug between 2001 and 2010.
2
12
Yes
b 80
68.2
70
c 800
700
60
50
40
30
20
19.1
12.7
10
0
699
600
6
43
Sensitivity: 95.6% Specificity: 66.7%
Percentage of meetings
a
500
400
300
191
200
140
100
=33
33–67
=67
0
=33
33–67
=67
No
Did the FDA approve the product?
Percentage of advisory committee
vote in favour of approval
Percentage of advisory committee
vote in favour of approval
a | Summary of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee recommendations and approval decisions.
b | Clarity of outcome of voting decisions. We considered the effect of the strength of the advisory committee endorsement by creating three equal
categories: =33% endorsement for approval; between 33% and 67% endorsement for approval; and =67% endorsement for approval. In 87% of
committee meetings, the result was either a clear “yes” or “no” vote.
c | Association between the strength of the endorsement by the advisory committee, as measured by the percentage of panel members voting for
approval, and the median duration between the meeting and the FDA approval date. The duration varies inversely with the strength of the endorsement.
approved the drug, and for those drugs that were
approved we also identified the duration of time
between the meeting and the approval date.
Exhibit 2b shows that in 87% of committee
meetings the result was either a clear “yes”
or “no” vote. One possible explanation for this
observation is that the committee members
have a deep expertise in their field and can
readily address the areas of uncertainty in the
application. An alternative explanation could be a
“herding effect” in advisory committee meetings,
where one or more influential members convince
other panel members of their point of view. The
open, role-call voting system of most meetings
could further contribute to this effect. In practice,
it seems likely that both explanations contribute
to this observation.
As shown in Exhibit 2a, the FDA’s approval
decisions have been broadly consistent with the
recommendations of its advisory committees.
The FDA approved 88% of the original NDAs
or BLAs that were endorsed by its advisory
committees, and did not approve 86% of
those that the committees did not endorse. In
addition, in those instances when the approval
decision made by the FDA differed from the
recommendation of the advisory committee,
the FDA did so at the same rate regardless
of whether the panel endorsed approval. The
sensitivity and specificity of advisory committee
recommendations as a test for FDA approval is
96% and 67%, respectively. In addition, at 78%
of advisory committee meetings the members
recommended drug approval.
The association between the strength of the
endorsement by the committee (as measured
by the percentage of panel members voting for
approval) and the duration between the advisory
committee meeting and FDA approval date is
shown in Exhibit 2c. As might be anticipated,
3
the duration varies inversely with the strength
of the endorsement, suggesting that strongly
endorsed products tend to be approved on the
first review cycle, whereas products that are not
as strongly endorsed could be associated with
multiple review cycles. Our results also show
that advisory committees endorse approximately
the same percentage of products for approval
as the FDA approves applications (~75%). This
suggests that the FDA is not disproportionately
pre-screening either clear approvals or rejections
prior to selecting applications to review at an
advisory committee meeting. Instead, the
results are suggestive of a two-cohort model of
applications based on whether FDA reviewers
feel they have sufficient input and knowledge to
make approval decisions without an advisory
committee meeting. This supports the notion
that advisory committees have a crucial role
in providing necessary input to FDA reviewers
during the pre-market review process.
Implications
We believe that these results have important
implications for companies that are preparing for
potential advisory committee meetings. Given
the characteristics of advisory committees
that we have described here, we believe that
the use of bodies akin to advisory committees
could be considerably expanded by industry,
and could be a major driver for improved
decision-making. Companies currently use
mock advisory panels to help rehearse and
prepare for advisory committee meetings.
However, given the sensitivity and specificity of
the approach, companies may be better served
by incorporating the approach into decision-
making, not merely preparation. This could be
applied at different points in the life cycle of a
product where important investment decisions
are made—for example, following Phase II
development—in addition to pre-submission.
Editor’s note: This article was previously published
in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery.
4
McKinsey Center for Government
October 2013
Layout by US Design Center
Copyright © McKinsey & Company
www.mckinsey.com/mcg
$BIS biotech short ETF was up 6% earlier and now around 4-5%. The only thing green in my account today lol
$DARA chart has almost nearly reset and in my eyes it's looking quite yummy but using stops whenever possible. I'm gonna start thinking about taking some action to consider a possibility of contemplating a thought of making the move to lean towards positioning myself to possibly have an affinity in the action of taking a starter position. :)
Probably getting some at 0.5s or when StochRSI begins to get out of the lower zone. Not sure what to make of the ADX though but the golden cross can't be a bad thing.
$BIS biotech short. Adding some more to hedge against biotech overbought conditions, just in case. Increased volume with what appears to be a bottoming formation as of late may signal something. It doesn't seem to have noticeable large gaps in the chart, so stop order utilization would be a tad safer. (ie: little chance of surprise gap down that renders stops useless, when we wake up one morning)
GMTA Psi Love me some microsoft I could see it trading @ $100 in the not to distant future easily, Bing, Xbox, Skype, Nokia, Windows 8 used in tablets, microsoft office, word, excel etc.....
Bill Gates keeps up with the times he is not asleep at the wheel like Apple CEO is
Msft is most likely a runner from here possibly 20%+ gains in the near future , there's a reverse head and shoulders pattern that formed recently meaning it's bottomed out and ready to run
There is always a champion in the stock market.
One of my favorite long term stocks is none other than MSFT, Bill
has Bing, Skype Windows 8, Nokia Lumia 41 megapixelcamera/cellphone,
Internet Explorer, Xbox. Did I miss anything
That Is interesting..
HCTI Very Interesting Information..
Obama Action Plan Mentions Hybrid's Technology as Alternative to Toxic Polyurethane Coatings.. HUGE..
http://www.hybridcoatingtech.com/pdf/US-EPA-Issues-Action-Plan-to-Deal-With-Toxic-Isocyanates-July1.pdf
LL Lumber liquidators chart is set. Strong valuations
CHTP $5 Call options for March. Added
ALAS is setting up nicely, its majorly undervalued as I mentioned a few weeks ago. ALAS printed a high today of 0.17, this is only the beginning.
Ive been telling everyone not to miss this great opportunity.
Pri approaching buy zone, getting some for a flip soon
Best buy. In this since last week. Riding the bounce.
Heavy after lunch rally $HEMP gapping moves in last 5 minutes.
January effect more like January dump this week... Wtf
VNDA added. End of month run coming imo
$HEMP is on ROCKET FIRE!!!
SVFC - On watch for granting of International Patent! Getting closer...and closer...check it out!
European Patent basics: http://epo.org/applying/basics.html
5. Publication of the application***DONE!!!!!!!*****see link below
The application is published - normally together with the search report - 18 months after the date of filing or, if priority was claimed, the priority date. Applicants then have six months to decide whether or not to pursue their application by requesting substantive examination. Alternatively, an applicant who has requested examination already will be invited to confirm whether the application should proceed. Within the same time limit the applicant must pay the appropriate designation fee and, if applicable, the extension fees. From the date of publication, a European patent application confers provisional protection on the invention in the states designated in the application. However, depending on the relevant national law, it may be necessary to file a translation of the claims with the patent office in question and have this translation published.
6. Substantive examination****DONE!!!!!!!*****see link below
After the request for examination has been made, the European Patent Office examines whether the European patent application and the invention meet the requirements of the European Patent Convention and whether a patent can be granted. An examining division normally consists of three examiners, one of whom maintains contact with the applicant or representative. The decision on the application is taken by the examining division as a whole in order to ensure maximum objectivity.
****European Patent Register, Event History: EP2658969: https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP11854049&lng=en&tab=event
**** 04.10.2013 (US date 10/04/2013) Publication in section I.1 EP Bulletin****DONE!!!!!!*****
**** 09.10.2013 (US date 10/09/3013) Notification on forthcoming publication of bibliographic data****DONE!!!!!!!!*******
****04.10.2013 Request for examination filed****DONE!!!!!!********
Guess which step is next?.....See below!!!!!!!!!Hint..Step #7!!!!!!!!!!!!!
****** 7. THE GRANT OF A PATENT!!!!!! ********
If the examining division decides that a patent can be granted, it issues a decision to that effect. A mention of the grant is published in the European Patent Bulletin once the translations of the claims have been filed and the fee for grant and publication have been paid. The decision to grant takes effect on the date of publication. The granted European patent is a "bundle" of individual national patents.
European Patent in National Phase
https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP11854049&Ing=en&tab=main
Australian Patent in National Phase
http://pericles.ipaustralia.gov.au/ols/auspat/applicationDetails.do?applicationNo=2011352928
Canadian Patent in National Phase
http://brevets-patents.ic.gc.ca/opic-cipo/cpd/eng/patent/2823123/summary.html
IntelliCell Biosciences Announces it Has Received Notification That International Patents for Canada, Europe and Korea Are Filed and Pending Approvals
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intellicell-biosciences-announces-received-notification-180000807.html
IntelliCell BioSciences Receives Notice of Its Thailand Patent Application for Its Stem Cell Extraction
Technology
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intellicell-biosciences-receives-notice-thailand-141500163.html
http://203.209.117.243/DIPSearch/PatentSearch/DipData.aspx?apptype=th&Appno=11317700245
Cree LEDs are so bright, they are blinding
A reverse merger is in the works with a big LED retailer. I'm expecting it to be a big play from here. The current sell off was due to the a reverse merger falling through that was just under an LOI. In this case its official and according to the market cap and the fact that another LED retailer, "CREE" trades at 12x earnings ALAS is so under valued its not even funny.
I think this board will be happy to of had it alerted early here first.
LATF...http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LATF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p46096761453
....marijuana index....http://mmj-index.com/
.....................http://assets.hightimes.com/styles/large/s3/stoned-boner-bizarre-sexual-positions.jpg
$TRQ Turquoise Hill fourth quarter 2013 production $$ http://www.turquoisehill.com/s/news_releases.asp?ReportID=619491
$DNDN Dendreon PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) is the first and only FDA-approved immunotherapy for advanced prostate cancer. PROVENGE takes the body’s own immune cells and reprograms them to attack advanced prostate cancer. http://www.dendreon.com/
Stem cell... Interesting.
Hmm I'm gonna look for one lol
SVFC - Very exciting developments underway! In Seoul #Korea at #stemcell center teaching our treatments to #Chaum from #RegenMedicalPC and #Intellicell
Treating patients successfully with the SVFC Patented Stem Cell Technology at Chaum Global Stem Cell Clinical Trials Center...improving the quality of life for people...clinical trials...partnerships...revenues...International Patent..Globalization of SVFC Tech! Exciting future for SVFC $$$$
https://twitter.com/stevenvictormd
http://ctc.chastemcell.com/en/People/Sub01.aspx
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intellicell-biosciences-announces-received-notification-180000807.html
Medical weed are kinda biotech, no? lol
Yes they are so are weed stocks. I need a hybrid biotech/marijuana 20 Bagga LOL
QRXPY looking ready, run up starting grabbed some last week and holding a bit.
Biotech Stocks are hot!!
$NOAH dipped recently and bouncing off the MA.
welcome back bud, what's goig on with alas?
Nice call Psionic
I can't pm bro, thanks for the heads up on SAFC and TCPS!
ALAS is going to be a monster. It doesn't matter right now that its not on stockcharts, they'll pick it up soon enough.
SVFC - up 31% today. 82 million volume! Heavy accumulation. Chart looks like it is ready to run.
ALAS is coming together nicely.. Don't miss it.. My price target over the next 2 months is 0.35
GAME nice gains since the alert here. In NOAH and TEG
PMBS @0017, a quick 2 bagger. with products at cvs and walgreens shelves across the country this is undervalued at these levels IMHO. Less than 150 mil o/s a true gift traders
Check out $ALAS, an 8-k was just filed announcing a reverse merger of a multi million dollar per annum LED retailer..
If revenue for the LED company really is $5 million than ALAS is extremely undervalued. Lets do the math.. According to the recent filing there are only 19,060,458 Outstanding.
If ALAS were trading exactly at earnings without a proper multiple factored in, were talking 0.26 per share.. (Which is not even fair value) I think its fair to say, given the industry that ALAS should be trading at roughly 4-5x earnings, which yields a fair pps of 1.05-1.31.. (I believe CREE trades at over 12x earnings.. In this case that would yield a pps of 3.12)
I'm interested to see how this one unfolds. If you find anything worth while please share it with me.
D&B states the LED company has annual revenue of $5M, Dec 2012:
http://www.dandb.com/businessdirectory/energiellc-wheatridge-co-15221805.html
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