QQQQ TRADERS

[Stock]

QQQ

[mokew]

Oil falls on higher inventories, economic worries
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:13 p.m. EDT April 1, 2009


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell Wednesday as U.S. petroleum inventories unexpectedly increased last week and as investors cast doubts on whether the Group of 20 nations can act in concert to pull the global economy out of recession.

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed surprising gains in gasoline and diesel inventories as demand fell. Crude inventories also rose from their highest level in 16 years, though not as much as expected. Adding more pressures in crude trading, data showed the U.S. labor market worsened again in March.

Crude for May delivery fell $1.27, or 2.6%, to end at $48.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"The increase in gasoline and crude stocks, combined with falling consumption, should put downward pressure on the entire petroleum market," said James Williams, economist at WTRG Economics. "The impact of the recession is clear in the petroleum data."

Gasoline inventories increased 2.2 million barrels in the week ended March 27, the EIA reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected a decline of 1.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported an increase of 300,000 barrels in distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, while analysts had expected a drawdown for the week. Meanwhile, crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels, staying at the highest level since July 1993.

However, crude inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex oil futures, fell 800,000 barrels to 30.9 million barrels.

On the Nymex, May reformulated gasoline fell 4.96 cents, or 3.5%, to $1.3717 a gallon and May heating oil dropped 2.21 cents, or 6%, to $1.3458 a gallon. May natural gas also lost 8.1 cents, or 2.1%, to $3.695 per million British thermal units.

The data showed weaker demand helped the buildups in inventories. Total demand for petroleum demand over the last four-week period averaged 18.9 million barrels a day, down by 4.4% compared to the similar period last year.

Among them, motor gasoline demand averaged 9 million barrels a day, down by 0.2% from a year ago, while distillate fuel demand slumped by 9.1%.

U.S. refineries operated at 81.7% of their operable capacity last week, down from the 82% a week ago, the EIA reported.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude supplies rose by 3.3 million barrels during the week ended March 27. Distillate stocks surged by 1.77 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 451,000 barrels, said the Washington-based industry group, which uses different criteria to gauge inventories.

More grim economic news

Also weighing on crude's trading was more gloomy economic news.

U.S. private-sector firms cut 742,000 jobs in March, according to the ADP employment index.

It was the largest job loss recorded by ADP in its nine-year history. The size of the drop doesn't bode well for the government's report on nonfarm payrolls and joblessness due out Friday. See Economic Report.

And in Japan, the second-biggest oil consumer, a key indicator of business sentiment fell to its lowest level on record during the first quarter. See full story.

In London, the G20 meeting officially kicks off Wednesday evening

[mokew]

Second look, it was my post on Sept '08, it's been vacant since '06 and you can post without waiting for ever.

[buzlightening]

Yep, RB getting frustrating! Thx for alternate!! buz

[mokew]

Another Q board;
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7387

[Stock]

there's always next time...

[J_Livermore]

I did not.

JL

[Stock]

Did you consider shorting QLD or going long QID, then?

[J_Livermore]

Yes. This is not a trading situation. It is a holding one. Big difference compared to what we have come to expect. Big money to be made on the downside for holders.

JL

[Stock]

You still holding all those QQQQ shorts?

[J_Livermore]

1-Month Global Market Targets for Coming correction:

SP500: 1250
DJIA: 10800
NASDAQ: 2000
FTSE: 5600
CAC40: 4750
DAX: 5500
NIKKEI: 14800
HANG SENG: 15800
SWISS: 7350

3-Month Targets:

SP500: 1175
DJIA: 10200
NASDAQ: 1800
FTSE: 5150
CAC40: 4300
DAX: 4800
NIKKEI: 13100
HANG SENG: 14200
SWISS: 6700

JL

[J_Livermore]

Got as low as .605 on this one. I really think you have small institutions in it now. Very classic.

Best

JL

[BRIG_88]

yeah ihdr was trying to get me to buy it at .60 when it crashed...i need to read up on it some more and decide it it's real for the long run...long time no see.....BRIG

[J_Livermore]

Brig_88: Could very well be. BTW, get your rear end over to check out ACTC - if you want a serious diversion.

Best

JL

[BRIG_88]

are you the same livermore that posted on raging bull years ago?....BRIG

[J_Livermore]

Third and Final Tranche: SS QQQQ 38.88. APC: 38.23.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Completed Second Tranche: SS QQQQ: 38.24. APC: 37.90

JL

[J_Livermore]

Sold Short: QQQQ: 37.56 net.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Fading the open: SS: QQQQ: 37.48 OB.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Closed long position @ 36.77. +1.11 Credit.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Executed Long QQQQ @ 35.66.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Long QQQQ 35.72 OB.

JL

[Tictac]

J Livermore

Where are the Qs going the rest of the summer?

What would lead you to go long?

Thank you

[J_Livermore]

You may now cover QQQQ's shorted at 42.36 OB, at 35.85.

Enjoy the profits, and best of luck.

JL

[Tictac]

J_Livermore come back please, EOM

[frenchee]

Good find mokew. This has huge investing implications...

[mokew]

Too good to be true;

[frenchee]

QQQQ On Sale. See #msg-11127558

[frenchee]

What's up JL? Still tradin the Qs?

[J_Livermore]

An absolutely FABULOUS opportunity on 4/18/2006 to short this market.

JL

[J_Livermore]

You should now be short QQQQ @ 42.35.

JL

[J_Livermore]

QQQQ Sold @ 42.26 (.37 Credit.) Prepare SS QQQQ 42.35 OB.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Hold Long Raise Sell to 42.25 OB for tomorrow.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Hold Overnight: Cover 42.14 OB in AM.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Buy QQQ 41.89 OB Current 41.89 Day Trade.

JL

[J_Livermore]

See #82. Cover Shrt @ 42.20

JL

[frenchee]

JL,

What's your current short-term forecast?

TIA

[J_Livermore]

Nice Entry. Set Buy Stop 42.20. Think you win.

JL

[frenchee]

Hi JL,

Got short QQQQ @ 42.28. Think I'm going to make $$$ or loose? What's your opinion?

[J_Livermore]

SS QQQQ 42.05 OB Current 42.05

JL

[J_Livermore]

SS QQQQ 41.85 OB

JL

[frenchee]

This one's for you JL...
http://www.leavittbrothers.com//chartspeak/ChartSpeak_031206.pdf

[J_Livermore]

SS: Q's: 40.60 OB. Curr: 40.60.

JL

[J_Livermore]

new target - Q's - 39.45.

JL

[J_Livermore]

Re-Short 20% sold @ 41.06 OB Current 41.06

JL

[J_Livermore]

Buy to Cover Short - 20% position - 40.69 OB. Current 40.68.

JL

[J_Livermore]

SS: Q's - 41.12 OB. Current 41.12

JL

[mokew]

Buffett: Caution Ahead

CNN/Money.com
By Shaheen Pasha
March 4, 2006: 9:44 AM EST

[The Oracle of Omaha sees modest growth for stocks and sounds off on executive pay. Plus: The latest value of Buffett's biggest holdings.]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, released Saturday, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he made few changes to the company's stock holdings but cautioned investors that the portfolio's returns may be modest over the next several years.

Buffett said while the company stands by its major holdings -- all "strong, highly-profitable businesses" -- current valuations aren't cheap. He said the group may double in value over the next 10 years with average annual per-share earnings gains of between 6 percent and 8 percent. Stock values, he said, will likely match that growth.

Warren Buffett:

As for the overall stock market, Buffett braces investors for more modest returns to come, citing increased "frictional" costs that eat away at performance. These include costs related to trading, advice and money management.

"These costs are now being incurred in amounts that will cause shareholders to earn far less than they historically have," writes Buffett.

Berkshire Hathaway (Research) added Wal-Mart (Research) and Anheuser-Busch (Research) to its portfolio and increased its holdings in Wells Fargo (Research), a company that Wells Fargo chief executive Dick Kovacevich "runs brilliantly," Buffett said.

Also new to the company's list of top holdings are Ameriprise Financial, a spin-off of American Express, and Procter & Gamble (Research), which merged with Gillette last year. (See table below.)

Cautious on insurance:
Looking ahead at Berkshire's insurance business, Buffett was cautious about the outlook for increasingly severe hurricanes in the coming years after the company lost $3.4 billion in 2005 as a result of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

To insulate the company from further losses, Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway will "now write mega-(catastrophe) policies only at prices far higher than prevailed last year and then only with an aggregate exposure that would not cause distress" if unusually strong hurricanes continue to hammer the region.

That's a move that's been echoed in the wider insurance industry with large players, such as Allstate, looking to curb exposure and raise rates for their homeowner's insurance on the expectation that hurricanes will increase in frequency and severity for years to come.

Another tricky area for the company is its exposure to General Re's derivatives business. In the last year, the company's pullout from the business cost Berkshire Hathaway $104 million pre-tax, bringing the company's aggregate losses from exiting the derivatives operations to $404 million.

"The hard fact is that I have cost you a lot of money by not moving immediately to close down Gen Re's trading operations," he wrote to investors. "I failed in my attempt to exit painlessly and in the meantime more trades were put on the books. Fault me for dithering."

He said derivatives in some circumstances could cause markets to become "chaotic" and Berkshire's experience with the business should be used as an instructional tool for managers, auditors and regulators.

Sounding off on executive compensation:
Buffett also sounded off on the increasing abuses surrounding executive compensation, but defended Gillette's former chief executive Jim Kilts' hefty compensation package -- worth over $150 million -- after the company sold itself to Procter & Gamble in a deal valued at $57 billion.

He said Kilts turned the company around since taking the top job at Gillette in 2001 as he "instilled fiscal discipline, tightened operations and energized marketing, moves that dramatically increased the intrinsic value of the company."

Buffett added that "Jim was paid very well -- but he earned every penny."

While he defended Kilts' compensation, Buffett was less kind about the overall state of executive compensation in the United States, saying it was "ridiculously out of line with performance," a fact that's unlikely to change in the current environment.

He said corporations should pay their CEOs relative to performance but added that CEOs today can receive a bigger payout for being fired than "an American worker earns in a lifetime of cleaning toilets."

BERKSHIRE’S BIGGEST HOLDINGS
Warren Buffett runs Berkshire Hathaway’s $47 billion stock portfolio. Here are Berkshire’s top 12 investments.
Stock (Ticker) % owned Cost
(millions) Market value
(millions)
American Express (AXP) 12.2% $1,287 $7,802
Ameriprise Financial (AMP) 12.1% $183 $1,243
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) 5.6% $2,133 $1,884
Coca-Cola (KO) 8.4% $1,299 $8,062
M&T Bank (MTB) 6.0% $103 $732
Moody's (MCO) 16.2% $499 $2,948
PetroChina (PTR) 1.3% $488 $1,915
Procter & Gamble (PG) 3.0% $940 $5,788
Wal-Mart (WMT) 0.5% $944 $933
Washington Post (WPO) 18.0% $11 $1,322
Wells Fargo (WFC) 5.7% $2,754 $5,975
White Mountains Ins. (WTM) 16.0% $369 $963
Ameriprise Financial was spun off from American Express in 2005.
Procter & Gamble was acquired when it purchased Gillette in 2005.
Berkshire first bought Gillette shares in 1989.

Note: Data as of Dec. 31, 2005

[frenchee]

Don't forget to WAG the QQQQ

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1744

[J_Livermore]

Sell Short - Q's at 41.83 OB. Current 41.83.

JL