Prosensa Holding BV (RNA)

[KiranA]

Going down you think?

[weazelboy]

Of course I own shares in this...why else would I be here.

Between yesterday and so far this morning (albeit early in the day)...seems to be some support at $6.00. Currently trading outside of Bollinger bands with $6.21 being lower band. I'd like to see a pop up over this AND the 50 day moving average today at $6.30).

We shall see.

[KiranA]

I'm very worried looks like it's going badly down today too. Do you own shares of this.

[weazelboy]

Kiran- there is no way to know if it's going to do OK or not. As my last post indicated, this stock does not follow conventional wisdom...ever. The only thing I can tell you at this point is that the stock has broken every level of support it had with ease AND all technicals have turned negative. This all happened in just 4 trading days. I can't tell you how that plays out, as again, the entire biotech sector has gotten crushed the last two trading days. Is there a bounce?

It seems pretty evident to me that the street does not believe the company at this point and in fact believes they are "data mining" their drisapersen results, as every comment they make is met with immediate selling. That leads me to think that unless we get a resubmittal of data to FDA for approval or some of their other trial results come through...this thing is stuck.

I would like to think that the large bids that were in place most of the day between $6.02-$6.08 are in fact, just the opposite...they are shorts finally covering their positions. EDGX is the market maker who always sits on the ASK pushing this down, so the fact they were on the bid large most of the day would seem to imply covering. Whether that is true or not, I have no idea. All of this is JMHO, of course.

[KiranA]

I can also see someone bidding for a large amount of shares at 6.06 how can we tell they are not shorting:(

[KiranA]

What do you think still is it going to do ok? Or did you sell yours when it went up for a short time? I cannot because I got them very high price:(

[weazelboy]

Hello. Well, with this stock...honestly, there is no "normal". The only saving grace to todays action is the fact that it appears biotech in general is getting pummelled. RNA's primary competitor, SRPT, was down almost 12% at one point today (although, as of this post has rallied back to be down only 6%).

The action on this stock never makes sense. Will it get back to $7.00, I don't know the answer to that. Holding a long position, I would like to believe so. There are currently 3 analyst ratings on this with $12, $11 and $7.40 price targets respectively. I am hoping to at least see a bounce back to the 50 day moving average around $6.29 today, but I'm not holding my breath for that.

Good Luck.

[KiranA]

Hello I'm new to this stock, is this normal for stock to fall this way? You think it will bounce back to 7 I'm talking about RNA

[weazelboy]

OB- seems we are in trouble in the short term. We've broken every level of support with seemingly the greatest of ease and have officially broken down below the "upward" trend line(s).

Zero buying conviction and sellers readily accessible/willing at every level.

I really just don't get this stock...

[someconcerns]

From the editor of FierceBiotech (an email, so I can't readily provide a link):

Editor's Corner

The FDA vs. the flash mob: Hard questions as parents demand unproven drugs
By John Carroll

Last week the parents of 7-year-old Josh Hardy managed to whip up a media tempest big enough to get the biotech Chimerix ($CMRX) and the FDA to work out a pilot study so that their child could be treated after their compassionate use request was denied, alongside many others. Now the parents of another young boy afflicted by a terrible disease are using some interesting PR tactics in an attempt to achieve a much larger goal: Push the FDA to approve experimental drugs for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) ahead of pivotal studies in the hope that it could let their young son, Ryan Dunne, live a "healthy life."

The local CBS affiliate in Colorado turned out for a flash mob demonstration yesterday, with protesters chanting Ryan's name and giving his parents a chance to highlight their campaign to get 100,000 signatures together to push the FDA to make unapproved DMD drugs available to a young patient population with no therapies approved for the ultimately lethal muscle-wasting disease. Other parents have been turning out in large groups to give FDA officials an earful on the same point. And the "Race to Yes" campaign today added heat with their own statement backing the petition, which is specifically designed to get an accelerated approval for Sarepta's ($SRPT) eteplirsen.

"We don't have time to wait for the FDA," says Jennifer Dunne in her appeal at helpryandunne.com. "We need to do it now," says Ryan's father, adding that his son can't wait years for the FDA to act.

"Every day that the FDA stalls, Duchenne takes children's lives," said Tracy Seckler, the parent of a child with DMD, in a statement. "The FDA claims this is a priority, but they've been sending us the same bureaucratic form letter for several months. If they grant accelerated approval, our children could be the first generation of Duchenne patients to survive."

The campaign raises compelling questions. Does the FDA have a responsibility to allow children access to unproven drugs, provided there's evidence of their safety and the possibility of a positive outcome--of any kind? A group of companies, in particular Sarepta, Prosensa ($RNA) and PTC Therapeutics ($PTCT), have all provided some signals from the data that could indicate a benefit. But Sarepta only has data from a tiny study the agency has already questioned, looking to a pivotal study to decide whether the drug really works. Prosensa's drug failed a Phase III study conducted by GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK). PTC's earlier study for DMD also failed. And all three biotechs insist that there are compelling signs that the drugs may work for some of these boys.

If the FDA eventually decides to capitulate on this point, the biotechs would have a chance to market drugs to children. That could set up another showdown with restive private payers which may well reject covering drugs that are green-lighted without solid evidence of efficacy, approved under traditional guidelines. And that might leave parents to pay a high cost for unproven medications which may have no more effect on the disease than a placebo.

Parents and children don't want to hear about traditional guidelines when they reflect on what's happening to their child. The public will side with the victims, and that leaves the FDA caught between the high R&D standards it's mandated to uphold and the passions aroused by parents, the victims of disease and protesters.

There are no easy answers here. Just hard questions. -- John Carroll, editor-in-chief

[ClarkKant]

Wow the shorts don't even let up in AH. I stopped out @ $8 for a $.50 loss on 1.5k shares.

[weazelboy]

Yes, it was brutal OB. And from a technical standpoint, it seems to have painted a very grim picture in the short term. There was significant money flowing out of this stock and distribution occuring today. Bluntly, someone was selling with abandon. Of course, it could just be a by-product of the shorts winning today and selling at any cost, but I suspect it's more than that.

Based on the chart formation, I fear tomorrow it gets worse...

[oldberkeley]

Well that was friggin' painful, but we finished green and we live to fight another day.

[weazelboy]

Yep. So much so it's absurd. I knew this would end up closing down on the day...almost there. Just hit 7.02. Frustrating!

[ClarkKant]

You were right wowza the shorts have this one by the collar

[weazelboy]

True, I'll give you that. But the 3's and 4's are long gone...and this is the 3rd pop to 7.00/8.00 since the last time they were in that range. I would think those type of traders are long gone.

Also, perhaps I should explain that statement. If you watch level 2...they are just throwing up bogus large ASK's that walk the stock down to force selling by giving the appearance of a "wall" and create selling pressure. The moment any buying pressure comes in they magically disappear. Unfortunately, that has worked flawlessly which is why we stand where we do (and they are doing it again as I type this!).

[oldberkeley]

I don't think I've ever witnessed a stock that is so controlled by shorts as this one

With the understanding that you're much more of a technical trader than I am, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree.

Many went long $3's to $6's, recognizing that the stock was on sale. They're not long-term holders, they're traders. Selling in the $7's & $8's is a great trade for them and makes perfect sense.

[weazelboy]

OB- regardless...I don't think I've ever witnessed a stock that is so controlled by shorts as this one. That any and every pop they can immediately cease control of it and hammer it right back down. It doesn't even last for a few hours, it's almost instantaneous. I can't really fathom there are THAT MANY people who wanted/needed to sell into this. It just seems absurd.

At this rate, it may not even hold a positive number for the day! Which, after being up in the 9's in AH's yesterday and even this morning is pathetic.

[oldberkeley]

There's an interesting discussion on Twitter about the relative merits of stat sig vs. clinically meaningful, with the stat sig folks clearly in the majority.

I'm afraid we're going to need more solid news than "let's look at the data in a different way" to produce a move that sticks.

[ClarkKant]

Going to admit I did not know there was a 25% short position in this.

If that's the case, I may hold and see what happens. AR*A and S*N both had about 10% short positions and had some nice pops recently in the last couple of months so the same could happen here and with 25% being short, you could see $10 pretty quickly.

From a chart glance perspective $8.10 was the most recent high of the last pop so I'd like to see $8-$8.10 hold this morning.

Watching closely but volume looks very strong and healthy so far in PM as it's already churned out it's 10-day volume average.

I still expect to see $8.50-$9 tested during market today.

GL

[weazelboy]

Yes. And it never ceases to amaze me how easily this seems to get pushed down with good news and momentum.

1.6 million shares short on a 6.48 million share float (i.e.- roughly 25% of float is short). That seems to be the perfect fuel for a massive short squeeze, but so far we have not seen that happen (over the last few months). Maybe this time will be different, but PM action doesn't allude to that...so, not sure what it will take at this point.

[ClarkKant]

Looks like RNA might open $7's coming down nicely in PM from $9 to $8 now but still expect this to have a wild day and test $9-$10 short-term.

RNA needed that big jolt of good news AH yesterday.

[weazelboy]

Given the 120 days is not up until about 5/12/14...I think it's safe to assume that info will not be released until the latter half of Q2.

[Ex Blockman]

Good Morning Weazelboy,


There you have it! Excellent news last night is the catalyst the stock needed to break out of the formation is has been in. Up almost $2 pre market. The slight violation underneath the rising support line, that you asked about, was just that. The lines aren't guarantees of absolute support, simply general directions. The last two weeks the stock turned from a rising wedge to a sideways channeling in a very tight range. Any major move in either direction would indicate the change of direction. With this strong move to the upside, let's see of that gap upwards to the $23.00s can begin filling.

[oldberkeley]

From this morning's earnings release:

We are currently working closely with GSK to transfer data and other elements covered in the collaboration as soon as practicable and within 120 days of the January 12 effective date of the agreement. Concurrently, we are focused on the continued analysis of the complete drisapersen data set, preparing for possible re-dosing of boys and having a meaningful dialogue with regulatory authorities. We expect to communicate the status of these events during the second quarter of this year.

http://ir.prosensa.eu/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=833485

[weazelboy]

I don't think we get anything "new" either was just thinking they would expand on this. Unless of course, we find out they are filing that NDA...

[oldberkeley]

You should easily be able to swing that for 10%. Best of luck!

[ClarkKant]

Thanks. Looks like it was good news for you longs. Positive earnings would be icing on the cake for you tomorrow.

Grabbed some $8.50 in AH just in case this goes a bit wild tomorrow morning.

GLTA

[oldberkeley]

r.- Sorry, can't respond privately.

Yes, earnings tomorrow before the bell, conference call at 8:00 am.

[oldberkeley]

I don't think we're going to hear anything new tomorrow, most likely they'll just rehash today's release.

Yes, the next big spike will occur if and when they file a NDA (or, of course, buyout news. )

[weazelboy]

Well, OB...at the very least...hopefully this is at least the fuel needed to break this ridiculously stubborn $6.60-$7.30 level of resistance so that gradual move higher can happen.

I suspect there may be more to add to this come the morning with the "corporate update"...

Also, IMHO this seems to open the door for an actual re-filing with the FDA for approval with the higher dosing too.

[oldberkeley]

It's certainly good news for us stockholders! But keep in mind that they're talking about clinical significance as opposed to statistical significance: the relative importance of the two is a topic of frequent debate.

I'm still maintaining my humble opinion that the stock's not going either to the moon or to the dumps, but instead a gradual climb upwards to a more realistic valuation.

[ClarkKant]

Nice big news for RNA. Should rock at open tomorrow possibly $9-$10 range.

[weazelboy]

HUGE NEWS OUT AH's!!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/prosensa-announces-48-week-data-220000251.html

With this news AND earnings/corporate update tomorrow before the bell. Looks like this is going to be a "hot stock" tomorrow (check out the AH's quotes!).

Now, the question will is...will it hold the POP this time!?!?!!!

[weazelboy]

Hey Ex Blockman. Wanted to get your thoughts from the chart you posted...???

Looks like it closed just a smidgen below the upward trend line (thanks to a last second "paint the tape" sale). Seems to be forming a pretty distinct pennant...and the only 2 options are either: a) breakdown from here if it doesn't retake the trend line quickly tomorrow or b) breakout above $7.25 on volume over the next few days if it does retake the trendline?

What's your opinion?

PS- interesting that this all could be coming to a head exactly by the next time news is out from the company next Tuesday morning. That would seem to add fuel to the fire for whichever direction it goes (good or bad).

[weazelboy]

It is blatantly obvious that someone utilizing MM EDGX does NOT want this stock to go any higher. They were sitting on the ASK in large quantities virtually the entire day. Was hoping for a better close than what we got, but it's about on par with the prior 2 analyst price target increases (i.e.- pop up huge to start the day and quickly selloff).

Fortunately, it continues to hold the upward trend line (which is now approaching the $6.60 mark and moving slowly higher each day). As long as that holds we are good. Super-strong levels of resistance from $6.60-$7.25. Gonna need some big volume and big news to bust it and hold it!

[weazelboy]

Interesting. Well, given the other news today that they will discuss 2013 earnings AND corporate update on Tuesday, March 18th before the bell...that would be as good of a time as any to announce the intent!

PS- not sure if you've noticed, but short interest on this is WAY up again. ANY type of news like that...this would double before you could blink on short covering alone!

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rna/short-interest

[oldberkeley]

Here's a quote from mid-January, they must be referring to this:

Prosensa is still considering a regulatory filing of drisapersen, given the mid-stage study showed promise in treating patients in the early stage of disease, Chief Executive Officer Hans Schikan said in a telephone interview. Longer treatment may also benefit patients, he said.

"When you start the treatment and how long you treat are the key questions," Schikan said. Full analysis of the trials has not yet been completed, he said.

[weazelboy]

OB...with early filing of what??

So far, we are getting our typical "pop-n-drop" on good news. We need to get this sucker some stock viagra to help it stay up for a little bit! LOL.

[oldberkeley]

Prosensa shares could be worth $29 with early filing, says Citigroup

http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/RNAid1955867/RNA-New-Enterprise-Associates--reports--passive-stake-Prosensa-

[oldberkeley]

Yep, it is. I'm still holding my entire position, patiently waiting for $10.

Best of luck!

[weazelboy]

Ho Hum! ANOTHER price target increase. We'll see if this one bodes better for us than the last two (which were to $11 & $12, respectively).

Citigroup maintains Prosensa (NASDAQ: RNA) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $4.00 to $7.40.

[novicetrader]

ob..RNA looking good in PM this morning!

[Ex Blockman]

This morning's pre mkt move into the mid 7.00s is a clear sign that RNA is wanting to go higher....... There's a big gap to the upside to fill over time.

[weazelboy]

If anyone is still out there and cares...

As of this post, "IF" volume comes in right here/now (currently at $6.75 with 60k volume on the day, need about 400k+ total volume) and closes above $6.75...it "should" trigger a breakout trade to $8.29. Technicals ALL currently showing very strong upward trend!

[weazelboy]

TYPICAL!

In typical fashion, this POS spends most of the day trending upwards and then settling between $6.60-$6.70 (for almost 3 hours) on the majority of the days volume...before a little volume comes in and pushes it right back down in the last hour and a half. Up 5% with 90 minutes remaining...and ends the day in the red! Absolutely Mind-Numbing.

Today's action once again confirms the ceiling at $6.60...and while things started off looking very positive for an upwards breakout...it now appears to be nothing more than a headfake. I'm not sure what it is going to take at this point to break this ceiling of resistance (or if it can even break it)?

Anyway, if anybody is even listening or cares...given the action today, I fully anticipate this thing getting crushed tomorrow......

[weazelboy]

Nice action today, lots of heavy buying between 2:30-3:30 pm Eastern which is when it popped up. Someone tried to push it lower in the last 5 minutes of trading on weak volume...typical.

Now, SOMETHING has to give in a big way next week looking at the chart...

http://scharts.co/1c7Cmsl

Bollinger Bands have contracted towards each other and high band/low band is only 83 cents apart (we actually touched the top band today). This is the tightest margin ever looking at the chart. When this type of contraction occurs, it is typically followed by a radical price movement (aka, breakout) in either direction to get the bands to move away from each other again.

POSITIVES: If you draw a trend line from Nov 13 low of $3.43 straight through the lowest closing/opening prices on Dec 11/12 and Jan 13/14...it is still ascending upward AND we held/touched that trend line today at about $6.02. In addition, we are above most all major MA's as support (SMA 10, 25, 50, 100).

NEGATIVES: Money Flow was in the negative the last 2 days even with the positive price action. Stochastics somehow turned downward today.

In a nutshell, there are more positives outweighing the negatives. Should the trend line and MA's all hold...that would result in the breakout being to the upside (especially if it can bust through $6.60 on volume and hold). However, if we breach and close below the trend line and MA's...it will get very ugly, very fast!

Here's to hoping for the prior rather than the latter! Definitely makes for an interesting week after a long weekend! Good Luck all (and of course, JMHO).

[weazelboy]

Another Sch13 filed today...someone taking another 6.2 million share position. The second of its kind in 2 weeks.

I wish that would translate to the share price...

http://ir.prosensa.eu/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-14-46938&CIK=1574111

[weazelboy]

OB...it has become something of a POS is what it has become. It cannot hold ANY momentum or positive news, ever!

I said the same thing as you a few weeks ago regarding needing just a few up days in a row...but as I stated then, I think that is impossible for this stock. Two analyst upgrades with price target raises to $11 & $12 respectively in the last month and the PPS still sits exactly the same. Just doesn't make any sense.

Until this thing can break AND HOLD the $6.60 ceiling...this pig is sunk! So frustrating! Even more frustrating the up on big volume and down on low volume pattern. Takes so much to move it higher, but so little to crush it back down!

[oldberkeley]

If we just could get two or three up days in a row, we might be able to establish some momentum. But unfortunately for the longer-term holders, this has become something of a trader's stock.