ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ)

[tw0122]

[tw0122]

Exactly the same thing lots of people saying draw down is just for elections
and afterwards price spikes up considerably “Two Dollars Investing”
On YouTube has a whole episode on it Chinas economic collapse about to spread…

[fourdint]

Yea, mostly casino these days ... and the casino wins. But I think there are general trends and news to play so more like poker and yes, even a good had can loose ... just don't want to put bets on every hand, certainly not a bad hand! Slots more random ... I don't play slots lol.

[fourdint]

That's the general trend I see. Monday is more hit around miss but tue and Wednesday good then Thurs and Friday hit or miss.

[luckydude777]

Investor's Basic Mantra: "The trend is your FRIEND"

Aside from all the WILD speculation you can read about and/or hear in what is going on moving forward ... if you pop up a 3 month chart of TQQQ ... here's what I see:

We'll start a new leg UP starting Monday or Tuesday.

This new leg up - taking TQQQ higher - will last for about a week and a few days - give or take.

Then we'll have a 2 -3 maybe 4 day sell-off, and THEN we'll start a new leg up from there.

Until this uptrend is clearly broken, and TQQQ starts consistently going sideways ... the trend is your FRIEND.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on. It's like going to the casino and playing the slots. Put your money in and pull the handle.

[fourdint]

Yea, I don't know about aholding for months ... even weeks, , but I can go a for days holding SQQQ. There is no crystal ball, if there was we would do that. All we can do is what our gut tells us during theses times. I think my gut says to play the small bumps and dips. If I sell, and it dips and i buy but it falls further, at least In in cheaper then I was.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Looks like I'll be hanging onto TQQQ for a few more days. LOL

[tw0122]

SQQQ in play unless TNX or DXY (USD) drop significantly. TNX the 10 year yield is used for borrowing. So the higher TNX goes the lower Nasdaq flows as borrowing funds becomes more expensive..


TNX
(Derived Data)
CBOE 10 YR TREASURY NOTE YIELDTVC
2.966
USD
+0.085
(+2.95%)
MARKET OPEN (AS OF AUG 19, 08:23 CDT)

Mannarino Market Risk Indicator

198.1****

Low 50-100
Moderate 100-200
High 200-300
Extreme 300+

(DXY = 107.89)


(DXY = 107.89) * (TNX = 2.956) / 1.61
08/19/22 09:25 EST


https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/

[TRAPPER JIM]

I've seen some similar articles about the market continuing to rise.

[luckydude777]

I predict we'll be above $60 a share by November elections!

[fourdint]

So read this ... The stock market could surge another 12% into year-end as technicals turn positive, according to JPMorgan.
The bank said more than $100 billion from trend followers are on the verge of pouring into stocks.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on.

[luckydude777]

Correct. (IMO)

I picked up some more T shares a bit earlier. "The trend is your friend" made me do it!

[TRAPPER JIM]

I hope so. At least the market hasn't been doing anything super crazy wild lately.

[luckydude777]

Thus far, looks to me like a good T day to the upside.

[TRAPPER JIM]

No idea what made the market dip like that this afternoon. It just all the sudden dropped like 150 points or something like that in 20-30 minutes. I looked and TQQQ was up over $39.20 then bam down to $38.10

[luckydude777]

You should do very well with your buy I believe. Way to go. I was at the doctor's office most of the afternoon so missed out on the opportunity.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Wish me luck. I'm back in on this dip at 38.19

[TRAPPER JIM]

Thanks. We'll be retired someday. LOL

[tw0122]

Slightly red here until TNX goes red. Nasdaq 100% capital borrow rate intensive so TNX must not be too green or it tanks. Hopefully we see some red TNX into the day.

TNX
(Derived Data)
CBOE 10 YR TREASURY NOTE YIELDTVC
2.814
USD
+0.024
(+0.86%)
MARKET OPEN (AS OF AUG 16, 08:13 CDT)

[luckydude777]

Way to go!

Holding all T shares now myself.

[luckydude777]

Much appreciated. Lot's of wisdom in your post.

[fourdint]

I don't think it's stupid holding T or S ... but it does mean you need to take advantage of oprotunities ... a missed oprotunity could mean you in a position of minimizing losses.vice maximizing gains. You probably had an opportunity pre market on S and T is still good.

You asked earlier what to trust. For every *buy* analysis there is a *sell* analysis.... you can take info from both, but in the end, trust the ticker!

I'll be the first to say fundamentals count, but some of the best market runs have had zero fundamentals like junk bonds, dotcoms, crypto, .... big list. Arguement there is sentiment weighs higher. Technicals are good but again reflect sentiment and fundamentals. In the end, it is your gut (and everything it has digested).

[tw0122]

As long as TNX keeps on falling Nasdaq golden as it is capital intensive and relies on lower rates. Some mystery buyer helping out by buying billions on bond debt to keep 10 year rolling down. The moment TNX flies up you exit this trade.



TNX
(Derived Data)
CBOE 10 YR TREASURY NOTE YIELDTVC
2.778
USD
-0.072
(-2.53%)
MARKET OPEN (AS OF AUG 15, 10:17 CDT)
2.850
PREV
2.804
OPEN
N/A
VOLUME
2.759 — 2.804
DAY'S RANGE

[TRAPPER JIM]

It's definitely unpredictable these days. I banked $1.89 a share. Waiting to get back in somewhere

[luckydude777]

I'm doing stupid and holding on to some S shares until later. I'm sort of like a deer caught in the headlights, if you know what I mean?!

Not buying any T today I don't think however. Seems to me traders would like to take some T profits and rebuy lower ... but hey ... in this crazy sczito season of ups and downs in the market ... way too complicated for this redneck to predict.

[TRAPPER JIM]

I'm out again. LOL c'mon dip

[TRAPPER JIM]

I still have the shares I bought Friday morning. Hopefully the futures are up really good Sunday night and it goes up really good Monday morning

[luckydude777]

So WHO do we listen to right now ... or should we listen to NO ONE and rely on our own gut instincts?

Five reasons high-flyers in the stock market will crash down to earth (By: Cody Willard) https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/edb1075b-9bc1-343b-a46d-adff4f657bf8/five-reasons-high-flyers-in.html

It’s never boring these days. Recall that there are times when the S&P 500 goes 100 days or more without making a 1% intraday move. But big moves are the norm nowadays — and they aren’t bullish.

Neither is the fact that the many of the worst of the low-quality stocks that are down still down 80%-90% from highs are continuing to spike. Much, probably most, of the recent rally action for those and other downtrodden stocks has resulted from short covering.

Short-selling is when people borrow stock from their broker to sell it immediately, hoping to buy it back at a lower price, return it to the lender and pocket the difference. Short covering is when the trader buys the shares to close out a short position.

Short-selling got to be very profitable for a month or two when the stock market was tanking in May and June. But, of course, the action brought in too many short-sellers, which made it crowded. That crowd has thinned out in the past couple weeks.

Here are five main reasons I expect a “Big Broad Sell-Off” in coming days and weeks:

1. We had an historic Bubble Of All Bubbles that just popped over the past year. I don’t think the odds favor a quick resolution in the midst of a new Federal Reserve/inflation paradigm.

2. Valuations for most of the former high-flyers that have crashed and then bounced are still too high to be good risk/reward for the long-term.

3. Everyone seems to agree that the Fed can and will simply go back to easy money policies in two months or six months or something. I don’t think the Fed/inflation playbook that will work for the next 10 years or longer is the same playbook that has worked for the last 40 years.

4. Crypto’s crash doesn’t seem like to be over, and I don’t think the tech stock market can bottom until crypto finishes washing out. Too many people who own cryptos that are 70% to 95% off their all-time highs from last year are still talking trash to crypto bears and crypto luddites: “You’re so stupid if you can’t understand that my crapcoin is going to go back up to its all-time highs after this latest crypto winter is over.”

I have people talking trash to me who have lost tons of money on cryptos that I had warned them to get out of before they crashed. It reminds me of the time when I was leading the state in scoring but my team was 5-17 on the year.

5. I expect a Big Broad Sell-Off because greed seems to be back driving the market action lately. Many of the trashed former high-flyers that were down 90% or more are now up 50% or more from their lows (which means that those stocks are still down 80%-90% from their all-time highs and almost none of them are ever going back to those levels.

I think we’ll look back in two months’ time and say this sort of thing: “How did all those crappy stocks go up so much so quickly this summer?”

I wouldn’t go selling a bunch of your long-term stocks or try to game a potential market downturn. We did some buying at those lows that are far away right now and there’s no reason to feel rushed to make your next long-term move. Easy does it, as always.

Cody Willard is a columnist for MarketWatch and editor of the Revolution Investing newsletter. Willard or his investment firm may own, or plan to own, securities mentioned in this column.

[luckydude777]

You made the right move picking up T Friday morning, for sure!

I picked up some T shares as well and sold them for a quick profit before the close.

Still holding some S shares for a quick unload Monday at some point most likely.

[luckydude777]

Thanks so much for your thoughts. I truly appreciate hearing them, as I'm sure others do as well.

I'm excited to see what the markets will bring next week. Though still early in being 100% confident ... it certainly seems to me that the Fed is highly inclined to let the indexes keep climbing right up to elections this November.

[TRAPPER JIM]

You go dude. Market did really good today

[fourdint]

Guess you have to see what Monday brings on that S but not a big loss at this point and probably will have a good out monday. I do think T will start heading south as don't think this is recovery we seek at this point and so is just a nice bump in road. Certainly not easy to pick directions!

I can remember having both T and S and buying or selling what ever is on move.and making $ both directions. Kind of a hedge but I'm more cautious these days.

[luckydude777]

Picked up even MORE under $35.

May hold all shares until next Monday, just in case rumor comes out Sunday evening that Trump has already sold nuclear secrets to the Russians AND Iranians.

[luckydude777]

Picked up a bunch of S shares this last hour at $35.22 average. White knuckling it!

[TRAPPER JIM]

I'd be happy if they run it as hard as they can. LOL

[luckydude777]

If the DAC runs higher into about noontime ... I might consider grabbing some S shares and probably dumping them before the close ... anticipating a Friday afternoon selloff. We'll see how the "Trump warrant" rhetoric plays into things, if at all.

BUT ... they could run the DAQ higher and higher right into the close which would be good for YOU.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Thanks. I'm a little iffy but I have a good feeling about it.

[luckydude777]

Indeed so, Jim. Finger's crossed for you.

I'm holding off awhile to see how the day shakes out.

Have a great day.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Jumped back in this morning. Wish me luck. LOL

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on. I need to find the needle in the haystack so I can retire soon

[fourdint]

I'll sell if it starts a major dips but i dont see that happening right now. But ill certainly repurchase after dip. History of indexes has been certainly an upward trajectory over long terms ... no problem playing volatility though. Wednesday been an up day lately ... Friday often down so would be time to sell if drop is indicated.

[luckydude777]

I'm doing the same.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Nice trade. I'm waiting for the next dip to get back in again

[luckydude777]

I just sold mine at $36.10. Bought them at $34.60.

I'm banking that they drop the share price back down some and I'll be looking for a rebuy ... possibly.

"Dog is a man's BEST friend when trading TQQQ!"

[TRAPPER JIM]

LOL I was up taking care of the dog and got some coffee and talked myself into selling since it's up so far this morning. Jumped out at 36.23 gained $1.43 per share.

[luckydude777]

Certainly appears like we're starting a new leg up. We'll see how well it sustains itself.

Tempting to lock in profits right now!!!!!

[TRAPPER JIM]

TQQQ doing good this morning

[luckydude777]

Looking strictly at a two month chart, TQQQ has one more down burst to it before it reverses and starts a new leg up.

But charts do not determine REALITY. So we'll see if the "big boys" bought like crazy the last couple of days and are now ready to ease off their buying for a bit ... or we move back to the $33 share price before the sun sets this evening.

Thoughts certainly welcome.