ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ)

[Agoura Guy]

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS DEAD CAT BOUNCE BEFORE ITS FADES TO SWITCH INTO S!!!!!

S $60-$80 COMING!!!!!!

[luckydude777]

I'm leaning STRONG in exiting my T shares by the market close today. Don't trust the DAQ going much higher next week.

Anyone want to try to talk me out of it???????

[luckydude777]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ... looks like there might be a little hope at the end of the rainbow afterall ... at least for TODAY.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on. LOL

[Agoura Guy]

THE S DOOR IS WIDE OPEN..... COME ON OVER AND JOIN THE PARTY!!!!!!

[luckydude777]

"MOMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEE! IT HURTS SO BAD!!!!"

[TRAPPER JIM]

Absolutely. LOL

[fourdint]

I hear ya. Lol. Two market garentees are 1) market will go down and 2) market will go up--the order is not of the guarantees.

[TRAPPER JIM]

I sure hope so. Shelly stubs her toe, market drops 300 points. Bill breaks a nail, market drops 200 points. Tina found a gray hair, market drops 350 points. Seems like it's just been dropping for anything and everything that happens. Can't wait to see it go up again. LOLOLOL

[fourdint]

I need to see the bottom first ... it is flattening out and $27 looks good but dont think i see what you're seeing and need to see that little upturn. I do have thoughts of double down to lower my overall PPS cost. But I'm about to do some traveling so can't lookover things as good as I like.

[luckydude777]

Chart looks to me like we're going to reverse going into the week end.

[TRAPPER JIM]

I made out pretty good last year. Paid a bunch of capital gains taxes. Still waiting to see how this year pans out

[fourdint]

Yes, it's called a realized gain or loss when you sell. Un till then it's unrealized ... so it's true. Good news you also don't get taxed on unrealized gains (not yet) or deduct against gains for unrealized loss. I know they want to tax unrealized gains (cuz its weath) but is programmatic. FWIW. I don't like red in unrealized loss either,!

Only good news on unrealized loss is come dec, you can use the loss (sell to realize) to offset any/all gains +3k. Unless you already have carryover losses in which case you probably get that $3k write off for life (untill they change that tax laws anyway)

Unrealized losses can easily become unrealized gains in time ... it's the crazy thing! I had a stock go sub penny on me -- complete loss -- it was a value trap. I didnt play it right because i should have minimized loss (hard to accept and do sometimes). Anyway, I already lossed everything and at the time would cost more in fees to sell then it was worth, so i kept it on the books for years ... often reviewed as capital gain offset but never did. Then one day I wondered where that $50k gain was comming from ... dang stock rocked back to life lol. I don't think that happens often though.

[fourdint]

You asked: those shares you bought in the $60 and are sitting on. How does Pro Shares go about charging you the expense fee on them? Once a month? When you sell them? ????? I'm still in the dark on WHEN and HOW they collect that expense fee.

The short answer is TQQQ is reballanced daily. There is a more complicated answer though ... not sure i can do it justice.. Decay is everyday but is visable over time. But if its $30, that is what get ... I do pay a small brokerage fee because it's an ETF but has nothing to do with it being TQQQ..

[TRAPPER JIM]

They say you only lose if you sell. But that saying never made me feel better when my stocks are down. LOL

[luckydude777]

I for one greatly enjoy your posts so I hope you do not go too far away. You have MANY treasured insights IMO.

LIke many ... I was expecting a continuation of the trendline going up into September. Then late last week things started accelerating down and Friday was the "crown achievement" of surprises for people like yours' truly. (I expected a selloff Friday but not NEARLY as huge as it unfolded).

Over the weekend a few commentators hinted that perhaps the typical selloff we normally get in September before the indexes start climbing again -- MAYBE we're getting that selloff a few weeks EARLY. Who is to say? Certainly not me.

So Friday and this morning I bought a bunch of T. If they puke the market HUGE going forward, I will have bought high. If they don't puke the market, but start a new sustained trend up, I will have bought low I guess. I'm inclined at present to simply hold my T shares going into the winter months and not do so much flipping like I've done starting out in March.

Curious - those shares you bought in the $60 and are sitting on. How does Pro Shares go about charging you the expense fee on them? Once a month? When you sell them? ????? I'm still in the dark on WHEN and HOW they collect that expense fee.

[fourdint]

Ow forgot reason for post. So read this:: "Market participants were overall buyers of fund assets including both exchange traded funds and conventional funds for the week ended on August 24. The inflows on the week equated to $3.8B and marked the space’s second straight week of cash injections according to the latest Refinitiv Lipper fund-flow report."

Clearly there is bullish people out there in this bear market.

[fourdint]

Yea, I'm still holding what I bought in $60+. Some was just an experiment and I wasn't looking at ever selling ... based on market index trajectory always being up long term. Experiment not going well at this point, but im years away. Im still sitting on cash -- dry powder for move ... just don't think it's time yet. I'll take a few months off and see where I stand when i return. Counting on your Nov prediction!

[TRAPPER JIM]

I put a sell at $45

[luckydude777]

Yes we will.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on. LOLOLOL We'll be back up there soon

[luckydude777]

Yeah - I have some up in that range as well.

"Mommmmmeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Please make the hurt go away!"

[TRAPPER JIM]

Lololol still holding those $38.19s I bought when I had that good feeling last week

[luckydude777]

My hero!

[TRAPPER JIM]

Added a bunch at $29.06 this morning. Bring on the bounce

[luckydude777]

Baring a negative global hiccup ... I'm betting that we'll go into Labor Day weekend with all kinds of UP euphoria in the indexes.

And I totally agree with you: the rout Friday was little more than getting into stocks CHEAPER. Nothing wrong with that.

[luckydude777]

Snapped a few more T shares a couple of cents above $29. Will just sit on them most likely. They'll appreciate GREATLY once snowflakes start falling.

[fourdint]

Ow yea, I can't wait to see the spin lol.

As far as interest rates go, we are about half of the historic average fed rate.. Depending on when you crunch the data, the average is around 6%. The last 20 years has done alot to keep the average fed rate down, to note fed rate exceeded 20% in the 80s. Good as long as we're below the average so they make a big deal of it. We are really just getting back to 2018 levels. But what the hay, causing panic in the market just means a lower entry level.

Problem I have is current inflation is caused by world wide supply side issues ... untill thoes issues are fixed we're going to see inflation regardless of interest rates -- it's simply supply and demand at work. Raising Interest rates can effect both supply and demand side pressures, but do we really want to crash the world's economy? The US looses that scenario as we don't produce what we need (understading there is diference between wants and needs).

Monday bound to be interesting ... I think the weekend warriors will bring it down further due to Friday's fear but my hope is a little rebound at end of day ... may not get that though!!!

Thoughts?

[luckydude777]

YEP ... it shall be interesting how Powell's speech yesterday will get spun as something AWESOME for the markets.

Maybe Mr. Biden will execute an executive order demanding China, India and Russia buy gazillions of U.S. index funds long to keep voters happy by election time?

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/26/markets-tank-while-im-waiting-for-the-powell-was-dovish-tightening-deniers-to-fan-out-and-clean-up-this-mess/

[luckydude777]

Great day for buying T!
Great day for being in S!

Hey ... it was a GREAT day!! All have a great weekend. Summer slipping away from us ...

[luckydude777]

Buy them when they are DEEP in the red.

[luckydude777]

Hoping to get even more under $31 coming up soon.

[Agoura Guy]

Fed Chair Powell Speaks At J-Hole, Says "Historical Record Cautions Against Loosning Policy Prematurely"

MORE RATE HIKES COMING, BE CAREFUL GOING LONG..... SEPTEMBER WILL BE UGLY FOR THE MARKETS!!!!!!

[luckydude777]

Picking up some T here under $32.

Figuring the FED will CELEBRATE Powell's speech next week, spinning it to: "The FED is on top of things! Don't let negativity stop you from buying your favorite stocks while they are still reasonably priced!"

[luckydude777]

If I was WISE ... I would have said within 6 - 8 months instead of the 3 - 4. (And Powell hasn't even spoken yet).

[fourdint]

I'm sure they want improved market conditionhappen. Into elections ... not much going their way. I'm just not sure thay can make that happer,, that is, what they want and realities not always the same. But I've heard you say it, I'll note it, so well see if the PPT can make it happen.

[luckydude777]

If a person was to buys shares of TQQQ today at approximately $33 a share ... I'm very confident that they will DOUBLE in price within 3 - 4 months if they just sat on them.

The Democrats want people making generous profits in the stock market by November election time, and because of that, I'm betting the PPT (Plunge Protection Team - Google it) will greatly assist in getting TQQQ to my prediction.

I'll get back in 3 - 4 months and see how well my prediction becomes, fair enough?

[luckydude777]

Take your pick:

"Market's are down as investors wait to see see if Jackson's Hole will be hawkish or dovish."

"Markets are up as investors don't care what happens at Jackson's Hole."

"Markets are flat because investors are on a late summer vacation at Jackson's Hole."

[TRAPPER JIM]

Right on. Them ole politicians don't care much about us. They say they do. But they've proven time and time again that they're more interested in lining their own pockets

[fourdint]

Yes, so lumber prices ramped up due to covid lockdown and closed canadian border crossings. Part of supply side/chain issues. Note, most of US lumber comes from Canada. That was rise and im talking 3x rate. Supply chain is global issue and a ton of what we use is imported. Lumber no exception. I had bought a couple of 1×4 and 1/4 ply and paid premium for sure so know what you mean. But lumber prices have been droping over last 6-8 months or so. Why? Because borders are no longer closed, inventories increasing, the building material has come under pressure as mortgage rates surge and new home sales drop. Basically supply shortage of lumber is about over. At stores, they go by cost of inventory, thus, retail price is a laging indicator -- may still be still be high but as new inventories are bought cheaper, the price will go down seeking equilibrium of what quanties suppliers are willing to supply at what price consumers are willing to pay. I think that is why they initially called it transitory... but many issues remain, like energy cost so not fully transitory plus, interest and tax is also a cost and all costs must be passed on. Thus increasing costs add to inflation. In the macro global world, decreasing value of currency also adds costs.

Politicians are quick to claim credit of which they have done nothing or pass blame when they have ... no diference here I have to say.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Lumber prices have skyrocketed. Bought a sheet of plywood the other day for $47 it used to be around $18

[fourdint]

Yea, it's a little shameful. I know what they are thinking as historically rates are used to throttle markets up and down to level out resssion and inflation. But in this case, inflation is not due to heated economy but supply side, specifically supply chain which is typical supply and demand. The goal should be thus improve supplies = increased gas and goods supplies which lowers inflationary pressure we see.

Supply and demand seeks equilibrium. Typicly supply increase to meet demand for which control is price. Demand outstriping supply then price goes up while supply outstriping demand price goes down. The equilibrium is suppliers produce cheapest price they can for what demand dictates assuming competition. Hence the fed approach is the oppisite of what is needed as they are decrease demand. First problem is that aproach works for discretionary goods and service but does nothing for shortages in required goods and services like transportation, food, housing. Lack of demand for discretionary good dings the ecconomy. The second problem is as you pointed out, people can afford it -there is not adequate supies of needed goods so inflation persists overall... this may give a soft landing but with least desireable consequences--could be quite horrific consequences. it's a government doing where the fed is doing best they can (too much political presure there though). In short, it's going to suck!

[fourdint]

Know you're probably right... might buy S ....

[TRAPPER JIM]

I definitely think that they should have held off on raising the rates. With the increased cost of everything under the sun since covid started. Plus the high gas prices. People can't afford paying higher interest rates as well.

[fourdint]

Pause before the storm perhaps? Storm up or down? Only thing I'm certain of is Friday is big day and if the markets go up, it's due to feds, if down it's due to feds-- twist it the way it flows!

I believe earnings have been mostly good news. But that said, I don't think the Feds can curve inflation by raising rates. They may be able to send us into recession which could work ... because you'll decrees demand in time of week supplies. But that doesn't cure the supply side issues and that is what is truely needed. This is supply side so should look at supply side fixes vice inhibiting demand side.. we don't have an overheated ecconomy dictating raising interest rates to cool it.

I agree that interest rates were too low for too long but the pause in rates should be restarted in a hot economy -- raiseing rates doesn't spark strong economic activity -- it does opposite! World ecconomy is hurting -- raising rates is opposite to what is needed. What is needed is fixing the supply side issues -- not doing that!

[Agoura Guy]

A LOT MORE SELLING AHEAD, THE ROLL OVER IS ONLY STARTING!!!!!

SQQQ'S ABOUT TO BREAK BACK INTO THE $40'S!!!!!

[TRAPPER JIM]

Market might be leveling here.

[Agoura Guy]

BEWARE: SEPTEMBER MARKET CRASH!!!!!!!!

SQQQ TAKING OFF!!!

PAY ATTENTION TO THE FUNDAMENTALS, CHINA'S BANKING SYSTEM IS IMPLODING AND EUROPE IS GOING INTO ENERGY STARVATION MODE WITH WINTER APPROACHING!!!!!!

ANOTHER 0.75 INTEREST RATE HIKE IS COMING!!!!!

US HOUSING MARKET IS CRASHING AND THE DEBT BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO BURST!!!!!

THE BEAR MARKET RALLY/SHORT SQUEEZE IS OVER... THE DOWNTREND SINCE JANUARY WILL CONTINUE!!!!

PREVIOUS LOWS WILL BE TAKEN OUT!!!!

[luckydude777]

"If the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) was allowed to invest trillions in the stock market in ANY direction they want it to go at any time they want ... seems sensible the Gubment could completely STOP taxation, because there would no longer be any need for it." - (Four winos on the street corner)

[fourdint]

I agree, except the whole time when we were shutdown from covid and there was no ecconomy, the market rocked... then after we started recover, we had this correction we are in. Seems a little backwards. But I have to believe that both lower and higher times are ahead for the market. They always try to attribute any change in market to some world happening ... a thunderstorm in Antarctica if that's all there is.

But elections do indeed effect the markets ... up or down is what the guess is.

China is a big concern ... we have become dependant on them to manufacture meds, chips, .....