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$AYRO: Microfloat EV play. Has $5.68 cash a share. No debt. $ZAPP EV crowd finding $AYRO.
$AYRO has history of very big moves. Easy meme target now once again. Getting nice volume and social media posts, particulary from $KOSS Roaring Kitty crowd. Heads up.
VPLM UP 39% on great volume!
🔥 $AAGC 🔥 Conference call folks!
🔥🔥 $AAGC 🔥🔥 Conference call folks!! 💪💪 https://t.co/DDdqNdtXFE
— Nickeli (@nickeli54) July 9, 2024
$POET: Little known AI semiconductor play. Now partners with giant, biggest in world electronic maker FoxxConn. POET a home run play at this price. Load up and DO NOT SELL. That is good advice.
$AAPL and $QCOM crowd on it. Also $KOSS Roaring Kitty crowd posting about $POET.
🔥$AAGC 🔥 Mega Thread! 💪
@HStarcuts 🔥🔥🔥 $AAGC 🔥🔥🔥🧵 Folks let’s take a look at where we are here:
— Nickeli (@nickeli54) July 9, 2024
✅ MC= $1M
✅ SS = 1.7B OS
✅ No Dilution
✅ No RS Stated many times
✅ Share buybacks monthly
✅ New Locations opening
✅ Audit underway
✅ Qtr over Qtr growth 🔥
✅Annual showed massive growth YOY pic.twitter.com/Bdy0upLSV5
Payfare ($PYFRF) Writeup – Delivering Growing Profits
Payfare Inc (PAY CN) is a Canadian-listed payments company with a C$290m market cap that has C$85m of cash and no debt. The business is the dominant player in a niche market, offering instant payouts to gig workers once they complete a delivery or ride. The business has a very impressive long-term track record of growth and has recently inflected to profitability. Despite partnering with the largest delivery companies like Doordash, Uber, and Lyft, the company is little known among US-growth investors. I expect that to change in the coming quarters and years for a number of reasons.
I expect the business will grow revenue at a 20% CAGR to $600m, EBITDA at a 28% CAGR to $114m, and EPS at a 25% CAGR to $1.95 in 2029. Based upon my long-term expectations for profitability, I estimate that the business may be worth over C$30/share in 2029, providing a +37% CAGR over the next 5 years.
The company was founded in 2015 and gained traction with platform gig companies starting in 2019, first winning Uber, then Lyft, then Doordash. Unlike many US fintechs, Payfare did not raise venture capital money, and instead bootstrapped the business, raising some money from its founders and friends and family until its 2021 IPO at $6/share. Because of this dynamic, many investors do not know about Payfare despite one of the best growth track records that I have seen. From 2019 to 2024, the business grew monthly active drivers from 75,000 to over 1.5m, +84% CAGR, grew gross dollar valued loaded from C$485m to C$14.6bn, +98% CAGR, and grew revenue from C$6m to C$240m, +109% CAGR. Perhaps even more impressively, the business inflected to profitability six quarters ago and hasn’t looked back, continuing to expand profit margins, including growing operating income by +320% y/y in 1Q24.
Despite all this success, the market has not noticed with the shares trading flat since their March 2021 IPO. I expect that to change for a few reasons and that the stock may have a very strong period of performance over the next 5 years.
What the business does
Payfare partners with the largest gig platform companies to enable drivers to get paid within seconds of completing a delivery or a ride. Specifically, Payfare powers programs such as DasherDirect by Payfare, LyftDirect by Payfare, and the UberPro card in Canada. Drivers sign up for the platform to make extra money. They are asked if they would like to enroll in DasherDirect by Payfare. If they opt-in, they will download the app and also be sent a card. I estimate that about 40% of Dashers prefer to be paid by the app. The main reasons for the driver preference are (1) instant payout of funds (2) ability to track gig earnings and expenses which significantly streamlines paying taxes (3) cashback rewards on things like gas (4) other benefits like health insurance and other unique offers. Payfare does not charge DoorDash or the gig drivers anything for the program. Instead, Payfare earns its revenue from interchange (swipe fees) when dashers use the card or app to make purchases. This creates a seamless, frictionless experience for all parties. The gig platforms love Payfare because it improves their driver retention and offers a benefit that keeps the drivers coming back to their platform. Often gig workers are lower to middle income people with relatively low extra cash reserves. Instead of turning to a payday loan or other high-cost source of borrowing, the driver can do a few extra deliveries and be instantly paid so they can cover their living expenses.
Growth opportunities
Payfare has three growth pillars, that I expect will driver 20% revenue growth and faster profit growth over the next 5 years.
1. Growth with existing clients.
a. Payfare grows with existing clients as their businesses grow and as program penetration increases (a higher % of existing drivers signup). DASH, UBER, and LYFT are expected to grow at a 10-15% CAGR over the next 5 years which should provide a solid base of growth for Payfare.
b. International Expansion – Payfare can take its programs to international markets with its existing clients, that currently operate internationally but do not offer an instant payment option.
2. Adding new clients. Payfare announced that it recently won a big box retailer in Canada, powering instant payments for their gig drivers. Given the scale of the customer, it seems like it is probably Walmart but could potentially be Costco or Amazon. There are additional companies
3. Entering new, adjacent verticals. Payfare is entering the earned wage access business with a partnership with Ceridian. This enables normal employers to pay their employees with paycards instantly, instead of the typical 2 week pay cycle. This matters most in high turnover industries where compensation is relatively lower, such as restaurants, retail, and hospitality. Employers can use the instant pay as a retention tool and help keep their employers from taking high-cost debt from predatory lenders, like payday lenders.
Overall, I expect Payfare will grow at a 20% CAGR over the next 5 years, given the stickiness of their customers, the track record, and the growth opportunities that are in front of them.
Valuation
I estimate that the business will generate C$600m revenue in 2029, C$180m gross profit, $114m EBITDA, $91m free cash flow, and $1.95 of EPS. Based upon payment sector valuation metrics on these future results, I estimate the business will be worth between C$27 and C$39/share in 2029, giving the potential for a +37% CAGR over the next 5 years, from the current price of C$6.06/share.
Why does the opportunity exist?
• Payfare had a trading halt that lasted for 12 trading days from June 18th until July 5th. The trading halt was because their processing partner had a internal issue getting their SOC 2 audit completed. There were no financial issues, restatements, etc with Payfare. This episode was frustrating for Payfare shareholders and is now in the rearview mirror. Payfare was restricted from buying back shares over the last several months while it worked through the SOC audit with its vendor. That has now changed, and I expect Payfare to begin a significant repurchase program given its C$85m of cash with no debt and C$25m of free cash flow generation this year. Management owns a significant amount of stock personally and are well aligned with shareholders.
• Payfare is listed on the Canadian TSX, despite generating 99% of its revenue in the US. Canadian investors don’t know the gig platform businesses as well as US investors do. And US investors don’t know that Payfare exists. I expect that Payfare will move its listing to the US Nasdaq in the next 1-2 years which will help close the awareness gap.
• Some investors may worry about customer concentration with Doordash likely a little over half of revenue and meaningful contribution from Uber and Lyft. Payfare has never lost a partner, as far as I know. One thing to keep in mind is that churn for these types of programs is higher when the program does not attract many users because there is no user base to convert to a new program manager. However, with 1.5 million monthly active users, each user would need to be issued a new card and signup for a new program if there were to be a change in the program manager. In addition, co-branding the programs like “DasherDirect by Payfare” creates brand familiarity with Payfare among the drivers so it is not a white label processing arrangement. Ultimately, the successful programs are much stickier than investors realize.
• One other question is “why don’t the gig platforms do this themselves?” Handling payments is not their core competency – their focus is on acquiring users of the service and attracting and retaining drivers. DoorDash, Uber, and Lyft could create its own payment gateways and rip out Stripe or Adyen, however, they do not do that because those companies specialize in processing consumer card payments and can do it better, faster, and cheaper than the gig platforms can internally. Likewise, it is the same case with handling payouts to the drivers – Payfare specializes in this and has superior technology and service that can do it better, faster, and cheaper than the gig platform companies can internally.
Risks
• Earnings or revenue growth do not materialize as expected.
• Customer concentration risk with a few gig platform companies.
• Key man risk with a few of Payfare’s executives being critical to the business.
🔥 $AAGC 🔥
💥 $AAGC 💥 Only takes one stock folks to change your life! 8’s hitting 🔥 patience usually plays well if it’s a 💎 Just have to peel back the onion to see what’s inside and this play is as clean as it gets! Take a peek at this annual and note share buy backs 👀 💎🔥💪 pic.twitter.com/kThR84MOuA
— Nickeli (@nickeli54) July 8, 2024
$.017935. VPLM>>eyes open, pretrial this week in infringement cases vs tmus and vz. Case is over $BILLIONS!
POET.....ASTS.......VERU......UP........https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=POET&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASTS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VERU&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
$POET: Unknown AI semiconductor play starting to rip here in AHs....New partnership news with giant FoxConn is big news. $AAPL, $QCOM and $KOSS boards all posting about $POET....Wants to rip here in AHs
Dave Inc (DAVE) Writeup
Dave is a fintech company that was started in 2016 by Jason Wilk. The company launched the Dave App in 2017. The company raised venture money in 2018-2021. The company came public in late 2021 through a merger with a SPAC, VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings III, that valued Dave at $4bn. Despite having a healthy ~10-20% profit margin for most of its life as a private company, after going public, Dave ramped up marketing and customer acquisition spending, which drove large losses in 2022 and 2023, masking the strong unit economics of the business. The management began pulling its profitability levers in 2023, and the results are beginning to show up now. There is significant upside to earnings estimates as the company continues to drive profitable growth. In particular, management is testing a new subscription pricing of $4/user/month for all customers who use Dave’s core cash advance product. By my estimates, this change alone will drive the company’s EPS to over $10/share in 2025 or 2026 versus consensus EPS of $2.10 in 2025. I estimate the stock is worth over $100/share in the next 12-18 months as the market realizes Dave’s earnings power and business value.
How the business works
Dave’s core product is a cash advance of $25 to $500, which is used by US consumers to help avoid overdraft fees and make ends meet. The business serves underserved consumers who often turn to costly check cashing or payday loans. There are three methods that consumers can borrow from Dave (1) instant on Dave card which is a 3% fee, plus Dave earns interchange on the transactions which averages about 2% (2) direct to bank account with Visa direct which is a 5% fee and (3) ACH transfer to bank account which is free. Dave does not charge interest on its cash advances – only the initial transfer fee for faster speed, similar to Venmo and CashApp’s revenue model of charging for fast delivery. Dave has 2.2m monthly active members that each average three transactions per quarter for a total of 6.6m transactions per quarter. The average origination size is $159 and the average revenue per transaction is $9, a 5.7% take rate. In addition, Dave earns money on tips and subscriptions. The cash advances are automatically repaid from the consumer’s bank account as soon as their paycheck hits the account. Dave’s credit losses are about 1.3% of originations because of the way they extend the extra cash products. Dave starts with a $25 advance. If that amount is repaid a few times, they will gradually increase it over time, up to a max of $500. The average duration is only 14 days, so the velocity of the advances is very high, allowing Dave to adjust its credit model in real-time.
Dave competes with companies like Chime, MoneyLion, and Brigit. Chime is expected to IPO in 2025 which will drive a further understanding of the cash advance business and an additional comparable company. Chime last raised capital in 2021 at a $25bn valuation.
Dave is an early adopter of artificial intelligence, using it both in its credit models to determine which consumers get cash advance offers and for how much and also in its call centers, resolving 90% of tickets without touching an agent. These results allow Dave to offer better customer service and a lower price point than competitors.
The path to $10+ EPS
Up until the last few months, Dave had no sell side analysts and investors did not understand Dave’s business model and potential. Even today, I estimate that the business has $10+ of EPS power in 2025 or 2026 versus the street modeling $2.10 of EPS in 2025. In addition to continued 20% revenue growth in the core business.
As discussed on the last earnings call, Dave implemented a new billing system and is testing new subscription pricing. I estimate that Dave could implement $3-5/month pricing for all of its monthly users. At that price point, it is still a meaningful discount to competitors such as Brigit which charge over $10/month in subscription fees.
I estimate incremental 50% EBITDA margin on core business growth, which is lower than the 150% incremental margin DAVE has driven over the last five quarters. The flow through of incremental revenue has been over 100% because Dave has reduced the level of spending on marketing and opex.
In addition, I estimate that Dave will generate $4/month on its 2.2m monthly active users, driving an incremental $106m of revenue at 90% margin. This drives 2025 EBITDA potential to $161m versus the street at $51m (the street is not modeling subscription pricing change).
From there, removing capex and capitalized software development cost, economic cost of dilution, and interest expense results in $137m of adjusted net income. Divided by 13.5m diluted share count gets $10.15/share of adjusted EPS (economic earnings). The company will not pay taxes for many years, given the large balance of NOLs. Note that stock-based compensation in the GAAP financials is based on stock awards that were granted at the time of the IPO at $320/share. I calculate economic dilution by looking at the market cap x % annual dilution from here which works out $400m x 2.5% = $10m/yr.
Valuation
I estimate that Dave is worth over $100/share based on 10x P/E. Dave currently trades at 14.2x 2025 P/E. Applying the same earnings multiple to my estimate of 2025 EPS arrives at a value of $144/share.
At $100, Dave would be valued at about $1.4bn which is meaningfully higher than its current valuation, but still significantly below the $4bn valuation that venture capitalists invested in 2021 and the IPO valuation at the same $4bn, despite Dave significantly growing revenue and inflecting the business to software-like margins >30%.
Looking at value through a different lens, consumer credit companies spend hundreds of dollars per user to acquire new users. Dave has 10.8m lifetime signups and 2.2m monthly active users. At $150 per lifetime customer signup, Dave is worth $1.6bn or $120/share. A strategic acquirer like Capital One or Citi might be interested in acquiring Dave and using Dave’s data on actual repayment history to make credit card offers to highly engaged consumers. Credit card products are much more lucrative than cash advance. Over time, if Dave is not acquired, the company may launch its own credit card or credit builder product.
Risks
• Dave may not realize the earnings power that I expect because they might not change the subscription pricing. Or consumers may use Dave less frequently if there is a pricing change.
• Dave faces credit risk. While credit metrics have meaningfully improved over the last several quarters, a weaker consumer could result in higher delinquencies and higher credit losses.
• Potential regulatory change. While Dave has never had any regulatory issues, the CFPB or other regulators could further regulate the cash advance industry which would impact the entire industry, including Dave.
$ICTY the steady climb continues
Exciting news! 🎉 ICTY is set to announce a bold new direction, leveraging targeted expertise to drive innovation and growth. Stay tuned for updates! 🚀 #ICTY #Innovation #Growth
— Eyecity.com, inc (@EyeCitydotcom) June 20, 2024
$BJDX: Reverse Split play. Trading 180% below cash. Microfloater getting targeted by crowd right now. Easy meme play ripper.
$EWRC Great Looking 00 Play on a Steady Uptrend! Nice bullish close above the 200dma today... News on the way next week per the company!
Exciting news is coming next week for our $EWRC shareholders. We'll provide details on the upcoming release of our game on the Epic Games store, Last Seen; Last Night, with an anticipated target date of 7/7.
— eWorld Companies, Inc (@eworld_company) June 26, 2024
VERU......BIOL...................................https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIOL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VERUx&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11960084343
thank you peter
Enjoy Friday Bro
$EWRC News Next Week!
Exciting news is coming next week for our $EWRC shareholders. We'll provide details on the upcoming release of our game on the Epic Games store, Last Seen; Last Night, with an anticipated target date of 7/7.
— eWorld Companies, Inc (@eworld_company) June 26, 2024
hi peter nice to chat, miss our chats.
we are little older now.
holding 39
All good and enjoy life
$BANT 20M OS, trading $0.003, DepartmentOfDefense contracts, acquisition and more: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BANT/
Nice to see serious talent joining our party on $PSRU
BMXI
$BMXI Nils Ollquist, CEO of Brookmount Gold has purchased 3,343,210 shares of BMXI at an average price of $.125 / share (a Form 4 has been filed under Rule 144). This over-the-market purchase is from two founding shareholders that needed liquidity, is a signal of strength and…
— Brookmount Gold (@brookmountgold) June 21, 2024
ASTS.....................MULN...............................GOEV..............................https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASTS&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=12&id=p84071410134
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOEV&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=12&id=p84071410134
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MULN&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=12&id=p84071410134
$KAVL +338% #DDAmanda Video Analysis
#1 Stock Scanner/Screener
LOL. If there is no real insider buying of shares, it`s a red flag. It shows no confidence in the company - if you don`t backup with money, it`s empty words.
Re: Steve, his insider and his scam.
PlantX, some facts on the present situation;
During Q3 2024, the Company demonstrated growth, still, with revenue only totaling
$ 9,184,678, and a net loss of $ 5,699,913 - it`s far from becoming profitable.
Five investment rounds and a high debt is the highly concerning reality.
Management shares; Individual Insiders 0.208% about 2000 shares in total.
If there is no real insider buying of shares, it`s a red flag. It shows no confidence in the company - if you don`t backup with money, it`s empty words.
PDYN: Low float little known AI software play an easy target for crowd orbit shot. Getting found. KAVL like move at anytime.
ESM Responds to EU Commission Call For Strategic Projects!
https://ceo.ca/@globenewswire/euro-sun-mining...ssion-call
Part of article;
ESM wishes to confirm that the Company has formally begun proceedings to list its Rovina Valley Project (the “Project”)
with the European Commission as a “strategic project” for the European supply of critical minerals.
Following a meeting held on May 27, 2024 with the Romanian Ministry of Economy, the application for the Project to be
designated as a “strategic project” within the European Commission’s Critical Raw Materials Act was sanctioned.
This positive development will take place whilst Romania continues towards overhauling its
existing mining legislation to align with the Critical Raw Materials Act.
IMO very important news, yet the market do not react (so far?), with a gain in the share price - maybe a delayed effect will play out.
With the project officially supported by the EU commision, the Romanian side will also play ball - no more stalling -
cause now it`s in the interest of the new government to succeed with it, not only the company itself -
the CEO`s 4% stake of OS is also a significant fact that will pay of for all of us.
PDYN: Low floater AI starting to rip. Crowd finding. Big close & AHs orbit shot on tap?
SIPC....Interesting read on Preferential killing of melanoma cells by a p16-related peptide
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10445694/#BIO059965C29
SIPC NEWS! Preferential killing of melanoma cells by a p16-related peptide R & D
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sipp-industries-announces-strategic-r-164600249.html
$VHAI 0.13 NASDAQ stock is heating up like $TPET and $KITT today!
PlantX Life - Certain things taking place lately, makes me for now to be more carefull... I do simply need to check in to new developments/troubles?
So, it`s a HOLD from my side - do your own research on all parts of PlantX.
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UPDATE; 5-1-22
courtesy of charting /\ wit tweezer top calls /\ Tony
@Montana_Trades
Really good study sheet on Candlestick Patterns
[-chart]pbs.twimg.com/media/FRn8188XMAAdZvk?format=jpg&name=small[/chart]
GEMOLOGIST /////\\\\\ $Pistol Pete$
FEEL SHARP BE SHARP - $Pistol Pete$
Trade Smarter
The Dream is Free, But The Hustle is Sold Separately - $hrimp2Whale$
Welcoming Introduction for Hunchbackgeek
$ENKS red glare !!!!!
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HAPPY 4TH OF JULY FROM 1776 / into 2021 AMERICA WILL BE GREAT AGAIN
HALTS & suspensions
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/suspensions.shtml
UT SIGNALS/SELLING/MANY
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/msgsearch.aspx?SearchStr=ut
http://www.otcmarkets.com/home
http://www.otcmarkets.com/news/otc-market-headlines?&page=1&pageSize=25
http://otce.finra.org/DailyList
Daily List: Symbol/Name Changes
http://otce.finra.org/DLSymbolNameChanges
Equity Short Interest/ http://otce.finra.org/ESI
Market Statistics/ http://otce.finra.org/MSTop100Issues
Noodls/ http://www.noodls.com/index.asp
Short report/ http://otcshortreport.com/
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theStockRadio.com
TSLA/ Tesla Motors (TSLA
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Tesla-Motors-TSLA-18162/
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/getboards.aspx?searchstr=tsla
tsla story/
Nikola Tesla 1856 - 1943 and his contribution to science and humanity.
i think was greater than all inventors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZkkHhyWFus
Nikola Tesla's Biography and Life New Full Documentary 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCFtjt-9Sfc
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PER IHUB MGMT |
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