Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX)

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SOX Components - August 3, 2009 Close



http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=NASDAQIndexes

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<< Call when Flood, Earthquake, Tornado, Landslide, Hurricane

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Gartner: Chip-Equipment Industry Showing Signs Of Revival

Last update: 6/15/2009 10:59:20 AM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Research firm Gartner Inc. said the outlook for the semiconductor equipment industry is beginning to improve as capital spending bottomed out in the second quarter. But while analysts predict a gradual improvement into 2010, the current small sales bounce won't be sufficient to overcome an industrywide supply glut, Gartner said.

That is a disappointing assessment for semiconductor equipment makers, who like chip producers, have responded to the global recession by cutting production, reducing orders and slashing jobs. Gartner said worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is on pace to fall 45% to $24.3 billion in 2009 rise 21% to $29.4 billion in 2010.

Gartner Managing Vice President Klaus Rinnen said, "The impact of the economic crisis has hit the semiconductor equipment industry hard, but signs of life are returning." The industry faces "a long, slow road to complete recovery," Rinnen said, but "we are seeing the first indications of increased foundry activity to replenish inventories depleted by the cutbacks of the past few quarters."

The pain of recent years has taught the industry it can improve operations and restore profitability by tightly managing capital spending and capacity, he added. Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is expected to tumble 47.1% in 2009, following a nearly 33% drop last year. After declining nearly 25% last year, the packaging and assembly equipment market is expected to fall nearly 47% in 2009. The worldwide automated test equipment market is forecast to drop 32% this year.

-By Mike Barris, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5658; [e-mail] (END) Dow Jones NewswiresJune 15, 2009 10:59 ET (14:59 GMT)

[Stock]

SOX:NDX, SOX:COMPQ

[rayrohn]

looks like seme's are not going to make any money it quarter...

[gottfried]

SIA February ww chip sales
http://www.sia-online.org/galleries/gsrfiles/GSR_0902.pdf

http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsales_SEMIbookings.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsaleschange.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/bookings_chipchange.gif

[gottfried]

SIA January ww chip sales
http://www.sia-online.org/galleries/gsrfiles/GSR_0901.pdf

http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsales_SEMIbookings.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsaleschange.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/bookings_chipchange.gif

[gottfried]

SEMI data January 2009
http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_028380

SEMI chart from 2001
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb2.gif

SEMI chart from 1995
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb.gif

[gottfried]

SIA December ww chip sales
http://www.sia-online.org/galleries/gsrfiles/GSR_0812.pdf

http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsales_SEMIbookings.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/chipsaleschange.gif


http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/bookings_chipchange.gif

[gottfried]

SEMI data December 2008
http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_027830

SEMI chart from 2001
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb2.gif

SEMI chart from 1995
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb.gif

[Stock]

Equipment Industry Will ‘Pay the Price’

At the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium, analysts and industry executives pondered the current economic recession and its likely impact on the chip industry. Dan Hutcheson of VLSI Research Inc. said memory overcapacity will improve due to lowered capex, with the result that "the equipment industry will pay the price." New wireless systems are a bright spot, said Jim Clifford, general manager of operations at Qualcomm.

David Lammers, News Editor -- Semiconductor International, 1/13/2009 8:10:00 AM

The semiconductor industry faces what now appears to be the worst recession in the postwar period, speakers said yesterday at the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) now being held at Half Moon Bay, Calif.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight (New York), said the current downturn is likely to be the longest in the past six decades, with the largest peak-to-trough drop in real gross domestic product (GDP). “The steep back-to-back declines in Q4 and Q1 growth are likely to be near records, and the huge November and December payroll losses portray an economy in freefall,” Behravesh said, adding that any mid-2009 turnaround depends on “massive fiscal stimulus being put in place quickly.” Timid policy responses appear likely in Europe and Japan, which could prolong the slump, while China has announced a big stimulus package that could add 2 percentage points to growth in 2009, he said.



The cratering economy is likely to rebound somewhat next year, with bright spots for high technology including infrastructure spending on healthcare computerization and wireless networks. But overall, the current downturn will be “worse than 2001,” he said.

Bob Johnson, a semiconductor manufacturing analyst at Gartner Inc. (Stamford, Conn.), contradicted arguments that the chip industry has become an inherently profit-free sector. During the relatively strong 2003-2006 period, total industry net income was $132.7B on $902.5B in revenues, with logic IDMs making $63.5B in net profits, of which Intel accounted for $26.9B. Memory manufacturers had $15.2B in net profits, analog/mixed-signal vendors $12.3B, fabless IC companies $21.3B, and foundry and semiconductor assembly and test services (SATS) companies $20.4B. Good profits are possible, he concluded.

However, the industry had net losses last year and will again this year, to be followed by several years of likely low (<4%) profitability, Johnson said. Memory manufacturers face “mergers, acquisitions, partnerships and fire sales.” With data showing that memory vendors earn the highest profits from chips made with leading-edge (i.e., 55 nm) technology, Johnson said memory companies should “invest in leading-edge technology, not capacity, and increase megabit output through technology advances.”

Memory megafabs

Dan Hutcheson, CEO of VLSI Research Inc. (Santa Clara, Calif.), said nearly 60% of overall capacity is now at 90 nm and below, with ~55% of leading-edge capacity going to DRAM and flash production. With too many memory vendors adding too much capacity, the result has been a memory “train wreck,” Hutcheson said.

VLSI Research estimates the NAND flash market was $11.9B in 2008, which Hutcheson said is “hardly enough to support two $6B megafabs. The R&D picture is even uglier. It costs about $1B to develop a process node. At a nodal clock rate of two years, the market can afford just one competitor.”

In DRAM, the picture is only marginally different. The DRAM market was ~$25B in 2008, which Hutcheson said provides room for two megafab suppliers. Now, the DRAM market is shared by nine competitors, most of which have revenues of <$400M. The memory industry, Hutcheson said, “must consolidate.”

With lower capital investments by memory vendors this year and next, memory prices may continue to rebound, but “the semiconductor equipment industry will pay the price,” Hutcheson said. Equipment revenues will be ~$30B this year, rebounding to ~$42B next year and ~$52B in 2011. “The next few years will be very difficult,” Hutcheson said, recommending that equipment companies “must learn to be profitable with little to no growth.”



One area of growth is in high-end wireless devices, including pocket computers with 4-6 in. screens and slightly larger netbook systems with 7-12 in. displays, said Jim Clifford, senior vice president and general manager of operations at Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (San Diego).

Smart phones and other wireless handsets continue to ship in high volumes, with ~1.4B units sold annually, and ~210 million full-sized laptops shipped last year. Between high-end cellphones and full-featured laptops lies a fertile market opportunity, defined by pocket computers and netbooks, which Clifford said “put the power of a laptop in your pocket.”

http://www.semiconductor.net/article/CA6628982.html?desc=topstory

[Stock]

Memory chip prices stabilise after capacity cuts

Tue Jan 13, 2009 9:41am EST

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Prices of standard DRAM memory chips used in personal computers are showing signs of stabilising after almost two years of declines thanks to capacity cuts by manufacturers, DRAMeXchange said on Tuesday.

The chip price tracker and research firm said DRAM makers worldwide had cut capacity by 22 percent between September and January, with Taiwanese vendors slashing capacity by 55 percent.

"When the economy quickly slowed down in 2H08, the financial crisis became the last straw that broke the DRAM vendors' backs, and the vendors started capacity cuts in September 2008," DRAMeXchange wrote in a report.

Hynix Semiconductor (000660.KS), the world's second-biggest DRAM chip maker after Samsung (005930.KS), said on Monday it was cautiously hopeful that the fourth quarter of 2008 may have been the bottom of a long memory-chip downturn.[ID:nSEO40717]

Vendors had been expanding capacity fast since 2006 due to overestimation of demand, bids to grab market share and an industry shift to a new generation of wafer technology.

DRAMeXchange said it was now worth hoping for a rebound in DRAM chip prices if demand for PCs recovered.

Analysts' forecasts for global PC shipments in 2009 vary, but many expect sales to fall. Research firm IDC expects spending on PCs could drop 5.3 percent this year to about $267 billion, versus its previous forecast of a 4.5 percent increase.

(Reporting by Georgina Prodhan; Editing by Erica Billingham)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLD37123720090113?rpc=611

[*~1Best~*]

... don't be so greedy like Buffett, as he often wants to drive stocks down to dirt before he buys it, as example. But that's what greedy markets do.

This bear market is sharper than any other in history, worse than 1987 cumulatively.

Have a good day

[gottfried]

SIA chip sales data going back to 1976 is downloadable from the SIA site


Press Release
STATS: Global Billings Report History (3-month moving average) 1976 - September 2008

For Immediate Release
October 30, 2008
Represents 3-month moving average dollar amounts of shipments - to download the report click here.
http://www.sia-online.org/cs/papers_publications/press_release_detail?pressrelease.id=956

[gottfried]

check out historic lows for KLIC http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_K/threadview?m=tm&bn=10296&tid=56625&mid=56625&tof=5&frt=2

one could buy KLIC for under $2 as a never expiring call option - so far KLIC has always come back

but I'm chicken

[*~1Best~*]

Thank you, $SOX has traded down today even though HPQ had good earning report, because of INTC comments a few days ago.

INTC is trading near decade low.

[gottfried]

SEMI data October 2008
http://www.semi.org/en/Press/CTR_026852

SEMI chart from 2001
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb2.gif

SEMI chart from 1995
http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/maugott/SEMI%20charts/SEMIequipment_btb.gif

[*~1Best~*]

INTC is trading 13 +/- in premarket, 10 year low. Should have priced in the pessimistic outlook. 13 +/- is a key support with a double bottom formation.




Intel Slashes Sales Outlook, Citing Weak Global Demand
INTEL, INTC, TECHNOLOGY, COMPUTERS, U.S. ECONOMY,
CNBC.com
| 12 Nov 2008 | 07:44 PM ET

Intel whacked more than $1 billion from its fourth-quarter revenue forecast and ratcheted down its profit expectations because a clampdown on spending is reducing demand for its chips.

Intel's announcement Wednesday illuminates how the economic crisis is rippling across industries. As consumers and businesses cut back on buying all kinds of things, their reduced purchases of PCs are harming computer makers and their suppliers. Intel is the world's largest supplier of microprocessors, the brains of personal computers, with roughly 80 percent of the global market.

The news, which came after the bell, sent Intel shares down sharply in after-hours trading. For a real-time, after-hours Intel stock quote, click here.

Intel said the PC industry supply chain was aggressively reducing component inventories.

The company, seen as a technology bellwether, did not single out the weak global economy, but investors are concerned the world is on the verge of recession.

"It means consumer's have basically shut down for the holidays," said Charter Equity Research analyst John Dryden. "It's so far below what they had expected....The company had outlined weakness in enterprise but not the consumer yet."

Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $9 billion, plus or minus $300 million. That compares with its previous forecast of $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion, or 14 percent below the $10.5 billion midpoint.
# For real-time, after-hours quotes on all the Dow 30 stocks, click here.

The company also sharply dropped its gross profit margin outlook to 55 percent, plus or minus a couple of percentage points, from 59 percent, plus or minus a couple of percentage points and said it would cut spending.

The company warned two weeks ago that the credit crisis could hurt demand for its chips, and lead to the insolvency of key suppliers that could result in product delays.

Intel, which makes 80 percent of microprocessors that power personal computers, gave no new financial forecasts, saying it would publish a mid-quarter update on Dec. 4.

"Current uncertainty in global economic conditions poses a risk to the overall economy as consumers and businesses may defer purchases in response to tighter credit and negative financial news, which could negatively affect product demand and other related matters," Intel said in the third-quarter filing. These comments were not in its second-quarter filing.

"There could be a number of follow-on effects from the credit crisis on Intel's business, including insolvency of key suppliers resulting in product delays," it said.

Other risks include the inability of customers to obtain credit to finance purchases of Intel products, as well as Intel possibly facing its own difficulties in obtaining short-term financing from the issuance of commercial paper.

When Intel reported third-quarter results in mid-October, it provided investors with wider-than-usual forecast ranges for the fourth quarter due to uncertainties about the global economy.

The technology sector in general is bracing for a prolonged slump. Cisco Systems, the world's largest maker of computer networking gear, offered a sign of the trouble last week when it reported that orders fell off abruptly in October.

As the first major technology company to report results including October, Cisco's grim forecast suggested that other tech companies will likely have to absorb major damage to their sales as well.

—AP and Reuters contributed to this story.
© 2008 CNBC.com

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27684366/

[gottfried]

AMAT backlog chart [record high] with SEMI backlog change

[*~1Best~*]

~~SOX ~~ LT support 210 +/- & SMH 18 +/-

[Stock]

Ted Burge once again moved his chart

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2684038&cmd=show[s129091850]&disp=P << cut and paste link

He says S/R line is 218 - I think it's 212 after going back to look at weekly closes in 1995, 1998, 1998, 2002 and now this year
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$SOX,uu[2500,2500]wacaynay[d19940101,20081231][J45066289,Y]&r=385 << cut and paste link

Ted's chart

[*~1Best~*]

SMH Daily

[*~1Best~*]

SSG 60min

[*~1Best~*]

Hi, also, 60min shows neg divergences.

[Croesus I]

looks like a wedge forming on the 60 min chart.

[*~1Best~*]

QQQQ 60min

QQQQ Daily