Things are shaping up fairly well, just a bit slower than expected.
With today's distribution, we are sitting at around 12% annual return, and that will go up with Monday's announcement of next month's dividend. The numbers look like they will support better than a .03 dividend which moves us up to around 16% with the increasing share price and makes the third month of increased dividends.
I'd expect to see share price move up as this hits more scanners for both increasing dividends and annual return over 15%, and historically we've seen this trade in above $3 with a consistent .03 dividend.
With oil and natural gas prices holding well despite the continued covid environment, we should see .05 or better in January.
PVL caught my attention early last summer and I jumped in when it hit .50 and rode that to mid 1.60 range then had to move money elsewhere for a while. I got back in at 1.50 in March when the numbers started to settle into a more reliable track and I was confident in dividends returning in July. Now we might slip to August due to the administrative advance, or more likely we pay that off in July and still see a small dividend (.004-.009 depending on how much they are able to increase production).
VERY optimistic for second half which looks like it will exceed my forecast as oil keeps moving up. Kind of bummed I didn't keep my 50 cent shares, but I bought those shares back plus 25% more so it's all good I guess.
I was disappointed that they didn't talk about the administrative advance in previous monthly reports, though going back and re-reading the 10-Q it was there so my fault for missing it.
That sets us back a month.
Looking at the numbers, we posted $600k which finished paying off the deficit plus $100k of the admin advance leaving $600k to pay back before distributions resume. Oil production was up about 5000 barrels as was price we got for the oil. July report should show another increase in production and another step up in oil prices. Nat gas should also improve marginally. I am expecting to see somewhere between $750k and $900k leaving us $150-300k for distributions in July or about .004-009/share. Not .027 great, but not a bad start with what looks to be a very good second half stacking up.
And they made back the whole amount in one report- but added another full 600k+ in administrative advance? What a total crock of BS. The divvy should have resumed as promised when the shortfall was eliminated. Doubling it in the same month it should be paid off is straight up thievery. Way to reward us for holding through no divvy? Lies, theft, and corporate bonuses.
We closed another 100k of the deficit in the May report which included the impact of the February storm that disrupted production and distribution in Texas. This leaves 500k left to fill before dividends return. If the fundamentals don't change, and oil holds above $60 then we are potentially on track to close the rest of the gap in the June report, or come pretty close. Estimates suggest 400k in June leaving 100k to fill in July. With $600k being estimated based on oil/nat gas prices and stabilized production we'd have a return to dividends with a sustainable payout in July.
There are still some headwinds to consider -- India under lockdown suppressing demand, OPEC hinting they might increase production, and a slight softening of oil prices over the past week or so.
Another disappointing monthly operational report, but there are some nice bits to be found. Production is improving. Price of oil will be improving. This put the dividend return questionable for June, but should be pretty decent once it does come back.
Still optimistic and think the current prices represent a decent entry/add opportunity.
There has been decent conversation over on StockTwits for PVL -- couple of the regulars do a good job breaking down the numbers and projections.
This next report should help clarify some open questions about pricing and how much of their production is already under contract at fixed prices. To me it appears that a good portion of their production is already under contract and that is why their income is lagging oil price more than would be expected. At some point that should improve as contracts expire, and hopefully we see higher prices linger after oil starts back down.
Early on I was hoping for dividends to return in April, but after the last couple reports I'm cautiously optimistic for June for a small payout, then fairly robust dividends after that. That should help drive the price up as well to maintain the dividend in the 10% range.
.02 dividend should push the share price to around $2.40. .03 could put us in the $3.60 neighborhood. Reality is likely to fall somewhere near that range judging by production numbers and what oil is doing, so I'm optimistic.