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EVs Made the First Visible Dent into Gasoline Consumption
by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2023
Gasoline sales have already been stagnating for years, interrupted by big drops in demand.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Gasoline consumption in the US dipped by 0.4% in 2022, from 2021, to 369 million gallons per day, all grades of gasoline combined, below where it had been in 2002, and down by 5.7% from 2019, and by 5.9% from the peak in 2018, according to data from the Energy Department’s EIA.
And yet, in 2022 employment grew by 4.8 million. And miles driven increased by nearly 1%. It’s not that economic activity declined or that people drove less. But they bought less gasoline
Why the drop in gasoline consumption despite more miles driven?
The primary long-term structural factor at work is the rising fuel economy of the vehicles in the national fleet. This started many years ago, and it continued in 2022
Why the dip in gasoline consumption in 2022 from 2021, instead of further recovery from the 2020 lows?
Ah-ha, finally, a long-anticipated moment. The growth of EVs in the national fleet inched to the visible surface of gasoline consumption. EV sales in 2022 grew to a share of about 7% of total new vehicle sales in the US. In California, EV sales in 2022 accounted for 17% of total sales. These numbers are starting to show up at the gas station as a decline in gasoline sales.
Even though the market share of EVs in the US reached 7% in 2022, up from near 0% a decade ago, their share of the national fleet in operation is still minuscule, and for now, the impact on gasoline sales is small in the US overall. But we can finally see this first little dent.
The impact of EVs on gasoline consumption was bound to show up, and it was part of the mix in prior years, but at such low levels that it got lost in the shuffle.
Sales shift from refiners and gas stations to electric utilities.
Conversely, as gasoline consumption declined in 2022, electricity generated and sold to end-users in the US finally broke out of the 15-year stagnation and set a new record, in part because of EVs (there are also other new power-hogs, such as crypto mining, which has taken off in the US a few years ago).
Electric utilities, for years stuck in a no-growth business in many parts of the country, are licking their chops at the prospects of being able to sell more electricity
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/11/evs-made-the-first-visible-dent-into-gasoline-consumption/
The global market for internal-combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and is now in "structural decline," Bloomberg New Energy Finance declared in a recent report.
BNEF reported in 2021 that global internal-combustion car sales had already peaked, but didn't mark that peak with a precise year. It now also predicts that oil demand for transportation will peak in 2027,
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1138993_combustion-vehicle-sales-peaked-in-2017-peak-oil-due-in-2027
Diesel Shortage Code Red (Is It Time To Panic?
Kathy Woods Is a waitress ,The fools that gave Elizabeth Holmes billions also like Kathy.
This is a MUST Watch as electrifying the U.S. is a pipe dream.
.
https://vimeo.com/781542214
.
Ray Kowalik CEO of Burns and Mcdonnell
What is Burns and McDonnell known for?
Burns & McDonnell is among the largest Engineering/Architecture companies in the US and a prominent contributor to US market for electrical designs. It is also active in the construction of military facilities, wind and solar energy installations, aviation, health care, and is active in the oil and chemical industry. Nuclear also.
Ray says there is zero integration between any of the energy installations. Not one of the connections from all of the Different energy systems will fit any other system
and it will take $1 Trillion a year for more than 50 years to integrate.
Burns & McDonnell is a family of companies bringing together an unmatched team of 10,000 engineers, construction and craft professionals, architects, and more to design and build our critical infrastructure. With an integrated construction and design mindset, we offer full-service capabilities.Sep 29, 2022
Ray Kowalik was interviewed by RI PBS Llewellyn King
The electrification of AmericaDecember 17, 2022 by
As the White House looks at how electrification can help the nation meet its climate and equity goals, Llewellyn King and Ray Kowalik, Chairman and CEO of Burns & McDonnell, discuss the power generation future.
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$500 -$1,000 is in the cards for ARKK by 2028 IMO.eom
ARKK Chart
Look at the 5 year chart for a great laugh.
https://www.google.com/search?q=ARKK+Chart&rlz=1CABBMB_enUS969US969&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
kathy woods should be playing with dolls.
What is the feed stock of our world wide society?
Houses, Commercial buildings , Transportation and durable goods?
Thank you Petroleum Industry:0)))
Oil demand could plunge by 30% over the next 5 years, Cathie Wood predicts.Jan. 19, 2023
Crude-oil prices are up thus far in 2023, but fund manager Cathie Wood sees a substantial drop in global oil uptake that could result in a powerful swing lower for the fossil fuel.
“We believe that the demand for oil,” estimated to be at about 100 million barrels a day, “is going to drop over the next five years” by 30%, Wood said on Thursday during a quarterly seminar for clients of ARK Invest’s suite of funds.
That’s “because of not only electric vehicles and the increased in electric-vehicle miles,” but also autonomous taxi services, Wood predicted, referencing her popular holding, Tesla Inc. TSLA, +11.00%.
The ARK Invest CEO made the case that crude oil CL00, -0.38% has held its value, on a relative basis, due to a number of factors, including China’s gradual reopening from its zero-COVID policies and a replenishment of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which were tapped to help mitigate the growing costs of oil last year.
“We could be talking $50 [a barrel],” Wood said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-demand-could-plunge-by-30-over-the-next-5-years-cathie-wood-predicts-heres-why-11674169002
Tiago EV starts at around $10,000 ($14,500 upgrade)
Tata Motors, one of India’s largest vehicle manufacturers, has announced a new made-in-India electric car called the Tiago EV, a 5-door hatchback based on the the company’s Ziptron electric car platform, which is optimized for driving conditions in India. The Tiago EV starts at around $10,000 with a 19.2 kWh battery and 3.2 kW charging. The company says it has a range of 250 kilometers. For around $14,500, drivers can upgrade to a 24 kWh battery version with 315 kilometers of range and a 7.2 kW charger.
Tata Tiago EV review: India's most affordable electric car
Egypt new massive gas discovery( 3.5 trillion cubic feet)
Egypt JUST ANNOUNCED It's NEW MASSIVE Gas Discovery( 3.5 trillion cubic feet)That Will Change The Entire Industry Forever
The Egyptian Oil Minister, Tarek El Molla, made a big announcement just last month. He revealed that Egypt had found a massive gas field in the northeastern Mediterranean.
According to the Middle East Economic Survey, the field possesses 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.
U.S. poised to become net exporter of crude oil in 2023
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-poised-become-net-exporter-crude-oil-2023-2022-12-19/
HOUSTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year.
Sales of U.S. crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years.
The United States already produces more oil than any other country in the world including Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. shale fields are aging and production growth this year has been sluggish. Overall output should reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year - but only if prices are lucrative enough to encourage oil drillers to pump more.
Export terminal operators are rushing to boost their capacity to better service the giant tankers that can carry more than 2 million barrels of oil.
"Russia has proven to be an unreliable supplier," said Sean Strawbridge, chief executive of the largest U.S. oil export facility, Port of Corpus Christi. "That really creates a wonderful opportunity for American producers and American energy."
Corpus Christi could see a 100,000 bpd increase in exports next year, Strawbridge said, on top of the record shipments of 2.2 million bpd in October.
LNG HITS RECORD
The United States became the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas during the first half of 2022, surpassing Qatar and Australia, on the back of demand from Europe and surging prices.
LNG exports likely will continue to rise into 2023 as Europe scrambles to refill storage depleted this winter, said Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler.
Philippines potential $26.3 trillion OIL and GAS Industry
The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back
Posted on December 16, 2022 by Gail Tverberg
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/12/16/the-economy-is-moving-from-a-tailwind-pushing-it-along-to-a-headwind-holding-it-back/
Gutting Germany — Part 3: Diesel
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/gutting-germany-part-3-diesel-6c5f7e55d46
Has gasoline demand peaked?Yes it has!
Internal combustion engines are sipping less gas as EV demand is on the rise.
Peak crude oil demand will follow peak gasoline demand this decade or next as ground transportation demand dries up. Crude oil is likely already in a bear market. Lower highs and lower lows with a test below $50 followed by a $50 -70 trading range seems probable.IMO
$100 oil may never be seen again.Price supports may be needed to provide continued investment and stable production as the EV transformation matures.
Perhaps peak food production or peak jobs caused by AI will bring the End Times but Peak Oil doesn't look like the straw that breaks the camel's back.HH
" Demand for the fuel(gasoline), which uses more than a quarter of the world’s crude, has already peaked. Part of that is about electric cars — BloombergNEF estimates that they’re already subtracting about 1.7 million daily barrels from global consumption. Still, much of it is just that plain old internal combustion engines are sipping less gas. New US cars now travel nearly twice as far per gallon as they did at the start of the Obama administration, with light trucks and SUVs increasing efficiency by a more modest 59%."
"After more than a century of almost continual growth, the world’s appetite for oil is peaking, and will soon enter terminal decline."
Analysis by David Fickling | Bloomberg
September 29, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/peak-oil-has-finally-arrivedno-really/2022/09/28/f67f2f0a-3f68-11ed-8c6e-9386bd7cd826_story.html
As older, less efficient cars are phased out of the fleet, the entropy of the scrapyard is reducing gasoline demand as rapidly as the innovation of the electric vehicle manufacturer. It’s no accident that major refiners such as Reliance Industries Ltd. are already looking beyond road transport, and reconfiguring their plants to produce aviation fuel and petrochemicals instead.
That’s not enough for those who paint a rosy future for oil demand to point to historic correlations with economic growth and argue that the pattern will repeat once again. Away from forecasters’ spreadsheets, OPEC spare capacity is already wafer-thin, and upstream investment is running at not much more than half its level last time crude prices were in the vicinity of $100 a barrel. The oil industry responsible for supplying additional barrels isn’t spending the money to ensure they’ll turn up — and if that doesn’t happen, consumption has no prospect of growing.
440 nuclear power reactors with 55 under construction currently
"Today there are about 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 32 countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of about 390 GWe. In 2021 these provided 2653 TWh, about 10% of the world's electricity."
"Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading."
"About 90 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 90,000 MWe are on order or planned, and over 300 more are proposed. Most reactors currently planned are in Asia, with fast-growing economies and rapidly-rising electricity demand.Many countries with existing nuclear power programmes either have plans to, or are building, new power reactors."
Plans For New Reactors Worldwide(Updated November 2022)
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
by 2030 145 million electric vehicles will be on the road
Number of electric vehicles
Between 2012 – 2021, around 17 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide (that includes all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles combined). It’s expected that 145 million electric vehicles will be on the road by 2030 (including electric cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks).
In the past years, we have seen exponential growth in electric car sales.
Electric car sales in USA
USA electric car sales mostly benefited from the launch and first deliveries of electric pick-up trucks in 2022 (greater interest in large vehicles).
The US charging infrastructure is getting built out fast, and Tesla’s opening up the Supercharger network. Also, president Biden is a passionate supporter of the EV industry.
Electric car adoption in the US is happening at a faster pace than predicted. California has the highest EV demand in the USA with 1 million plug-in electric cars sold.
https://tridenstechnology.com/electric-car-sales-statistics/
The future of electric cars and EV industry predictions show that we’ve only just started with the EV revolution.
The future of electric unit sales is expected to reach 16,206.900 cars in 2027.
2022 10.6 mil EV sales (a growth of 57 % over 2021) expected
"For the full year of 2022, we expect sales of 10,6 million EVs, a growth of 57 % over 2021, with BEVs reaching 8 million units and PHEVs 2,6 million units. By the end of 2022 we expect nearly 27 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs. Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by -9 % so far and are below 20 000 units annually. Current sales are from 5 vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to ca 55 000 units."
"Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 4,3 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during the first half of 2022, an increase of +62 % compared to 2021 H1."
https://www.ev-volumes.com/
Global EV Sales for 2022 H1
By Roland Irle, EV-Volumes
EV demand poised to turn crude oil demand downward this decade.
(Crude oil bear market may already be here IMO)
"Road transport represents the largest share of demand for crude oil, at 44% (Figure 5) with the pace of transport electrification the most significant factor in determining future demand for oil. Figures 6 to 9 show that the electrification trend in the transport sector is gathering pace with electric vehicle (EV) sales, deployment of charging infrastructure, and battery range (as a proxy for technological development) all showing accelerating trends. In the case of passenger cars, it is easy to envision that in the next decade there will be a sharply reduced market for internal combustion engine vehicles.
The steep rate of change is being driven by evolving government policy. Governments covering 25% of the global market have announced 100% EV sales mandates for 2035, and EV-related subsidies doubled in 2021 to nearly USD 30 billion (IEA, 2022). These kinds of policies are low-hanging policy fruit for the many governments looking for ways to address climate change. They can be combined with popular industrial subsidies aimed at fostering competitive firms in the green markets of the future and employment-creating spending on charging infrastructure.
"As a result, consumer uptake is poised to hit significant tipping points well before 2035, triggered by several factors, including the increasing affordability of electric vehicles. Under most assumptions, EVs are already cheaper on a lifetime basis or even straight off the lot if financed (Clean Energy Canada, 2022; Direct Line Group, 2020; Orvis, 2022). Upfront cost parity is expected to come in the mid-2020s (Bush, 2020). Increasing range, the availability of infrastructure, and growing consumer confidence that comes from familiarity with the technology will also drive EV uptake.
"According to Bloomberg NEF, “The market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor. As regulatory drivers begin to play less of a role, consumer adoption dynamics—the ‘S-curve’—take over” (BloombergNEF, 2022). The S-curve describes the uptake of new technology that eventually takes off not in a linear fashion but exponentially, with sudden and overwhelming effects (Foster, 1986). There are numerous examples of such a dynamic with past technologies, including cellphones, personal computers and, ironically, internal combustion engine passenger vehicles.
Another driver of S-curve adoption rates will be the reluctance of new car buyers to purchase a conventional vehicle that they see as having low resale value—a positive feedback effect that will intensify as the market share of EVs climbs (Arib & Seba, 2017). EVs may also play an outsized role in the destruction of demand for oil well beyond their market share. Fleet owners, taxis, and ride-hailing services will be early adopters of EVs, given lifetime cost considerations, and their vehicles are driven many more kilometres than the average (Arib & Seba, 2017). Owners of multiple vehicles will likely also prefer to use the EVs over conventional vehicles if they have a choice, given the significant difference in operating costs.
"To be on track with the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario, 64% of passenger car sales and 5% of truck sales would have to be electric by 2030 (IEA, 2021). The above trends suggest that this trajectory is within range.
From the perspective of road transport—the biggest factor in oil demand—the trends are tracking toward the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario. This would mean a significant displacement of oil demand beginning before 2030 and picking up pace as the share of electric vehicles grows exponentially. Compared to the business-as-usual Stated Policies scenario, the Net-Zero Scenario implies a drop in the demand for oil needed for road transport of 18.8 mbpd by 2030 and 49.9 mbpd by 2050."
By Aaron Cosbey on September 16, 2022
https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/canada-can-expect-declining-oil-demand
Global Demand for Oil Will Be in Decline by 2030
"Comparing the IEA’s scenarios against observed trends suggests global demand for oil will peak before 2030 and thereafter decline. Similar conclusions have been drawn by other independent analysts (BP, 2022; DNV, 2021; McKinsey, 2022; Rystad Energy, 2022), and, in the same vein, the CER’s only plausible scenario shows Canadian production peaking in 2032.
"Demand reduction will be driven primarily by road transportation, which accounts for 44% of oil demand. Trends in climate policies, technological improvements, and consumer behaviour suggest demand reduction in line with the IEA’s NZE. These will begin before 2030 and will accelerate thereafter."
The East Mediterranean Is Primed For A Natural Gas Boom
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 14, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-East-Mediterranean-Is-Primed-For-A-Natural-Gas-Boom.html
The Eastern Mediterranean could become a “stable supplier of energy” to the European Union if the recent maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon spurs more investment in the region, the head of the company that launched the latest gas production project says.
“I think there is a lot more gas to be found,” Mathios Rigas, chief executive of Energean, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday.
Energean said at the end of October that first gas was achieved at the Karish field offshore Israel, two weeks after Israel and Lebanon reached a historic agreement to settle their long-running dispute over their maritime border.
“We have delivered a landmark project that brings competition to the Israeli gas market, enhances security of energy supply in the East Med region and brings affordable and clean energy that will displace coal-fired power generation, making a material impact to the environment,” Energean’s Rigas said last month.
The Israel-Lebanon deal could pave the way to more oil and gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean region where major gas discoveries have been made in recent years. The settling of the dispute could encourage more investment in gas supply from an area close to the EU which, in the future, could help the bloc diversify its gas supply sources as it seeks to ditch Russian gas dependence by 2027.
More exploration and investments in the Eastern Mediterranean could make the region a “stable supplier of energy” for the EU, Energean’s Rigas told FT.
Under the Israel-Lebanon agreement, the Karish oil and gas field and an area known as the Qanaa prospect are expected to be in Israeli and Lebanese waters, respectively.
A week after the border deal, Lebanon urged French supermajor TotalEnergies, which owns the contract to explore Lebanese waters, to start drilling in Block 9.
Suriname has 30 billion barrel potential of recoverable oil equivalent resources.
"Oil Majors Are Betting Big On Suriname" By Matthew Smith - Nov 14, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Majors-Are-Betting-Big-On-Suriname.html
"The appeal of offshore Suriname is amplified by the fact that the oil discovered to date has been light to medium with low sulfur content. That means it is cheaper and easier to refine into high-quality fuels, and there is a low carbon cost associated with its extraction compared to the heavier sourer oil grades produced in Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. Projects in Suriname have an estimated breakeven price of $40 per barrel Brent, which is expected to fall further as development ramps up, and vital infrastructure is put in place. For these reasons, offshore Suriname is an appealing investment jurisdiction for international energy companies, particularly when it is considered that many Latin American countries have far higher breakeven prices."
"According to Staatsolie, data is has obtained points to offshore Suriname containing up to 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent resources."
Arthur Berman: “The Devil is in the Diesel” | The Great Simplification #44
Namibia Could Join OPEC If Recent Oil Discoveries Fulfill Potential
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Namibia-Could-Join-OPEC-If-Recent-Oil-Discoveries-Fulfill-Potential.html
Namibia could consider joining OPEC if recent offshore oil discoveries prove to be large enough for commercial development, Namibian petroleum commissioner Maggy Shino told Bloomberg on Wednesday, as oil majors that have made recent discoveries prepare for appraisal drilling.
TotalEnergies made in February a significant discovery of light oil with associated gas on the Venus prospect offshore southern Namibia. The initial results are “very promising” in the so-called Orange Basin, Kevin McLachlan, Senior Vice President of Exploration at TotalEnergies, said at the time.
Venus in Namibia could be a “giant oil and gas discovery,” TotalEnergies said in an investor presentation last month. Appraisal and testing are slated for 2023.
Shell said in April that it was “very encouraged” by the early results from the deepwater Graff-1 exploration well in the same Orange Basin offshore Namibia, completed earlier this year.
“Over the coming months, we’ll need to conduct further evaluation of the well results, and additional exploration activity, in order to determine the size and recoverable potential of the hydrocarbons that were identified,” said Dennis Zekveld, Shell’s Country Chair in Namibia.
Shell also made a second discovery in the Orange basin in April.
Shell’s Graff and TotalEnergies’ Venus discoveries could be transformational for Namibia, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said earlier this year.
“There’s a new kid on the block in Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream industry. After two successive giant offshore discoveries, Namibia is the hottest play in the region right now,” WoodMac said in March.
But Namibia, as well as Shell and TotalEnergies, will have to wait until the appraisal and testing programs are completed next year to see if the early promising results really meant that the oil discoveries are giant. The economy of Namibia, neighbor to the south of OPEC producer Angola, is currently valued at around $11 billion. If the discoveries are developed, they could double the country’s GDP.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Namibia-Could-Join-OPEC-If-Recent-Oil-Discoveries-Fulfill-Potential.html
"oil production" reached an all-time high in 2019, at nearly 95 million barrels
" the United States is currently the world's largest producer of oil, followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia."
Supplementary notes:
Figures include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates and NGLs. Liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas are excluded, as well as oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.
Global oil production 1998-2021
Published by N. Sönnichsen, Jul 7, 2022
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265203/global-oil-production-since-in-barrels-per-day/
Global oil production amounted to 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021. The level of oil production reached an all-time high in 2019, at nearly 95 million barrels. However, the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on transportation fuel demand led to a notable decline in the following year.
Rising production and consumption
Apart from events surrounding global economic crisis as in the late 2000's and 2020, oil production consistently increased every year for the past two decades. Similarly, global oil consumption only decreased in 2008, 2009, and 2020, but has otherwise increased to a higher level year after year. Oil and oil products remain invaluable commodities as most transportation fuels are petroleum-based and oil is a major raw material for the chemicals industry.
Production by region and country
While total production is rising, regional distribution has shifted, with the share of production declining the most in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) since 2008, and rising the most in North America. Even though as a region the Middle East still produces the largest share of oil worldwide, the United States is currently the worl'ds largest producer of oil, followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Running Out of Spare Capacity
11/ 19/ 2021
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/running-out-of-spare-capacity-global-oil-markets?fs=e&s=cl
Petrodollar Collapse: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales
A Geology Insider Explains Why The Global Energy Crisis Is Going To Get Much, Much Worse
January 30, 2022 by Michael Snyder
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a-geology-insider-explains-why-the-global-energy-crisis-is-going-to-get-much-much-worse/?fbclid=IwAR1IAoJ_nc7unR7oE98y0g5aFA-pLRV-FR04mn6NPAjdJ2Lfuo6DCQr3oqU
Many are learning the prepper mentality the hard way.No TP and empty food shelves was a great learning experience.Many will develop preparedness thinking and practices.I am optimistic while staying realistic.New thinking is here and that includes "food insurance" for families.Many are waking up to the limitations of institutions and the vulnerabilities of our instant gratification life styles. Localization is catching on. The pandemic shook everyone to the core. Some are stressed out and acting out while others are reassessing and changing their lives. The door is wide open for healthy change and many are doing just that.This is the start of a new and much better age.Happy Holidays My Friend!
I agree with you, BUT we need to be growing food locally, starting in our backyards, playgrounds, golf courses, etc. Only 4% of people in the U.S. produce food. Third-world nations are better off surviving starvation because they grow food, save seeds, and practice all survival skills. Just saying. Good luck.
sumisu
We are adapting and changing as always. Things are looking good to me. Got EV, got AI and got new thinking replacing old stagnating thinking. A sustainable and more healthy world is being created as we speak. The key is to avoid systemic seizure while we transition. So far so good even with supply tightness in many areas. We will adjust and transform IMO. No global depression,no WW III and no die off. Just a lot of uncertainty and anxiety as things get bumpy during this birth of a better way of doing everything.Take Care! https://www.tesla.com/semi
TRUCKING INSIDER: "Everything In the Country Is Going To Shut Down" If This Happens
Premiered Sep 6, 2021
An energy crisis is gripping the world, with potentially grave consequences
Will Englund 15 hrs ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/an-energy-crisis-is-gripping-the-world-with-potentially-grave-consequences/ar-AAPjcIE?fbclid=IwAR2xn6etLK8QQwUiBR2GgznIRyzyBKbey1ZOdxyijCOiSR7BXSVeiSCrWrQ
US Heating Oil Supplies Lowest In Decades Ahead Of Winter
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 09, 2021 - 11:45 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-heating-oil-supplies-lowest-decades-ahead-winter?fbclid=IwAR0ZAPbJv_o7JwIbHrqP0fAMbgLiRE_cJGzx5pHu3leii2ZohpDumN1BKmk
How will 500,000 products made with fossils as feedstock & process energy be created post fossil fuels?
Posted on September 29, 2021 by energyskeptic
https://energyskeptic.com/2021/how-will-500-million-products-made-from-oil-be-made-after-its-gone/?fbclid=IwAR3_Aoax8anDRsQ7uQ-_1a3RBuzS18xeoWXoK9v2RCOAeq_byMvj0G8AUhY
IEA: The Global Oil Glut Is Gone
By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 12, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-The-Global-Oil-Glut-Is-Gone.html?fbclid=IwAR2iedQKzRRF2VJxMAPANS_4oRuKIXtchN6u4GHGeXhmHOPVzzHCxROZrgg
Toyota warns,yet again,that the infrastructure needed for mass adoption of battery electric vehicles,
remains years away-
https://pjmedia.com/culture/bryan-preston/2021/03/19/toyota-warns-again-about-electrifying-all-autos-is-anyone-listening-n1433674#16162445917512&{"sender":"offer-0-EObzs","displayMode":"inline","recipient":"opener","event":"resize","params":{"height":295,"iframeId":"offer-0-EObzs";;}}
futr
Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless Morgan Stanley Warns
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article68436.html
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What we have here is peak oil production,peak global warming hysteria and a birth of a new age of peace and prosperity.The times they are a changin!
"Some parts of Texas were colder than Alaska. Before dawn yesterday morning, it was 5°F in Dallas...and 18° in Anchorage. About 800 daily records for cold temperatures were set in the last week, according to Bloomberg."
"Picture an overheated car (and what we drive), an overcooked dinner (and what we eat), and someone sick with a fever (and how we act). Now imagine that on a planetary scale." https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report/climate-change-an-existential-threat-to-humanity-and-how-we-can-survive-643267
In this period of mass hysteria we are demonizing CO2.They want remove CO2 from the atmosphere.This is amazing!As the climate cools more carbon in the atmosphere could help reduce the cooling.
Don't panic! We will survive and we will thrive.Gloom n Doom thinking is a disease.Positive change is breaking out in 2021 and the next ten years will be fun as hope increases and healthy changes bring healing and harmony to all.Reforms in schools,courts and prisons will open up a wonderful era of peace,prosperity and joy.
From a letter I wrote and am sharing with some national leaders:
Dear.....,
I am full of hope that a better America is about to emerge
from a terrible period of pain and destruction.I am determined
to do what is required to see the promise of our Constitution become reality
and clearly the time for major change has arrived.While sheltering in place
I have been searching for the best solutions we can now put to work.The key
ingredients for our goals are inside us and they are crying out to be fully
expressed in our institutions.
I believe we must treat others as we would like to be treated in
our schools("Teach Like Finland" by Timothy Walker),
in our courts("Restorative Justice", Fania Davis) and
in our prisons("Incarceration" by Christine Montross).
IMO the 3 authors above must be involved in the transformation of our nation.
A note I wrote that I am sharing with friends and family:
Be Kind To Your Mind:
Lifting Our Thoughts
One beautiful way of lifting our thoughts to a higher level and thus raising our energy is to tap into a stored memory of joy, love or self-confidence. It takes only a few moments to make this happen.
Choose a time when you felt full of joy, love or self-confidence. You can choose another high-energy feeling if you wish. Close your eyes for a few minutes and picture how you felt at that time. Remember it with all your senses. As you breathe in and out, feel that experience all through your body.
The HeartMath Institute suggests that you place your hand over your heart during this exercise. After a few minutes, you can open your eyes. Practice this a few times to establish this memory within you.
When you feel yourself filling with emotions like fear or anger, place your hand over your heart and watch how the negative feelings are replaced by feelings of joy and love. Remember that everything begins with a thought. A thought of fear leads to a feeling of fear. A thought of resentment leads to feelings of anger. When you become willing to get out of your head and come from your heart, your feelings change to loving feelings.
John Grassi, a teacher I had in graduate school, told me a wonderful story to illustrate this. At recess one day, two young students were getting ready to have a fight. A girl caught the attention of one of the boys and put her hand over her heart to remind him to come from his heart. In turn, that boy put his hand over his heart and stopped acting out his anger. The second boy saw this gesture, put his hand over his heart-and the fight was over.
It is such a simple exercise but it works every time we have the willingness to change.
Neale Donald Walsh writes, "The Highest Thought is the thought which contains joy. The Clearest Words are those that contain truth. The Grandest Feeling is that which you call love. Joy, truth and love. These three are interchangeable, and one always leads to the other. It matters not in which order they are placed."
Here is a guided imagery that can help connect you with a higher frequency of energy for faster healing:
Imagine that you have a cord connected from the top of your head reaching up to all the energies of the universe. You can feel it vibrating. See a glow of light all around you, expanding wider and wider until all you see is light. Feel it vibrating as you sit in the center of all this energy. Feel your entire body alive and connected to this higher frequency. Feel yourself surrounded by love. In this powerful place, say to yourself, All the energies of the universe are healing my body today. See this manifesting. Know this is a reality.
Now give thanks for the manifestation of this affirmation.
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Making time every day for listening to guided meditations can work wonders.You can "loop" these videos by right clicking on the image and selecting "loop" so they repeat over and over causing you to drift off into a dream state allowing the affirmations to access your subconscious mind to reprogram your brain with upgraded "software":
I Am Worthy | Affirmations for Self Esteem and Self-Love
Shell, in a Turning Point, Says Its Oil Production Has Peaked
Europe’s largest oil and gas producer said oil production would gradually decline 1 or 2 percent annually, underscoring the company’s desire to shift to greener energy.
As Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, Shell has faced skepticism about how willing or able it will be to shift from oil production.Credit...David Zalubowski/Associated Press
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/business/shell-oil-production.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR3G79DlPOwEDiVgls-I2f-yFbIpeOqG_9n5XpCbse6rPv1GhXphK2J1JQM
Setting the Stage for an Oil Crisis
01/ 27/ 2021
http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/setting-the-stage-for-an-oil-crisis?fbclid=IwAR1w9PPVWvA4wMbgmRiHSJE_KoEYktvPoEyCrO2WNk0lyQnf_fZ3EDLXgOE
We believe we are on the cusp of a global energy crisis. Like most crises, the fundamental causes for this crisis have been brewing for several years but have lacked a catalyst to bring them to the attention of the public or to the average investor. The looming energy crisis is rooted in the underlying depletion of the US shales along with the chronic disappointments in non-OPEC supply in the rest of the world. The catalyst is the coronavirus.
The initial phase of the crisis that took prices negative is behind us and the next phase which, should take prices much higher, is in its infancy. Global energy markets in general, and oil markets in particular, are slipping into a structural deficit as we speak. We believe energy will be the most important investment theme of the next several years and the biggest unintended consequence of the coronavirus.
Investors’ focus has shifted to how quickly supply can be brought back to meet recovering demand. While most investors believe the lost production will be easily brought back online, our models tell us something vastly different. While OPEC+ production will likely rebound, non-OPEC+ supply will be extremely challenged. Instead of recovering, our models tell us that non-OPEC+ production is about to decline dramatically from today’s already low levels.
Thus far, the slowdown in non-OPEC+ production has come entirely from proactively shutting in existing production. These wells were mostly old and only marginally economic before prices collapsed in 2020. Going forward, production will be impacted by a different and longer-lasting force. Low prices led producers to curtail nearly all new drilling activity. As recently as March 13th, 2020, there were 680 rigs drilling for oil in the United States. In less than four months, the US oil directed rig count fell by 75% to 180 – the lowest level on record.
Shale wells enjoy strong initial production rates but suffer from sharp subsequent declines. Basin production falls quickly unless new wells are constantly drilled and completed to offset the base declines. Considering US shale production was already falling sequentially back in November of 2019 when the rig count was above 700. Today’s 373 rigs all but guarantee production will collapse going forward.
Low prices have led to a sharp drilling slowdown in the rest of the world as well. Between February and June of 2020, the non-US rig count fell by 40% to 800 – also the lowest on record. We have often written about the depletion problem facing the non-OPEC+ world outside of the US shales. Over the last decade, this group has seen production decline slowly and steadily as a dearth of new large projects has not been enough to offset legacy field depletion. By laying down half their rigs, this group ensured that future production would be materially impacted.
Analysts continue to focus their attention on what has already happened (the shutting-in of existing production) instead of looking at what is yet to come. The unprecedented drilling slowdown is only now starting to impact production. Going forward, supply will plummet leaving the market in an extreme deficit starting now.
This blog was an excerpt from our broader white paper Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities. If you are interested in reading more about this topic, please download the white paper below.
http://info.gorozen.com/top-reasons-to-consider-oil-related-equities?hsCtaTracking=47e6c6b6-cc98-4b4f-9d15-7a5d50ca23d5%7C5cf430a6-e13b-40f4-8869-9ce96f4b8a19
The Energy Cliff - The End of Oil | Steve St Angelo + Nicholas Trinkett
A dive into the world of oil production and demand with two interesting perspectives. Both provide lots of detailed data to help predict the future of oil and energy in this fast changing sector.
Peak Oil in South & Central America
By Matt Mushalik, originally published by Crude Oil Peak
January 5, 2021
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-01-05/peak-oil-in-south-central-america/
UK North Sea Summary Part I: Licensing, Drilling, Discoveries and Development
12/25/2020
George Kaplan Natural Gas Production, North Sea, Oil Production, Reserves and Resources
http://peakoilbarrel.com/uk-north-sea-summary-part-i-licensing-drilling-discoveries-and-development/?fbclid=IwAR0pUHnjGDv9z6vDaBfvB-CtStNl2oJhny4hl2SNRGWEfV9SjLkp7EPC7CA
Chef José Andrés urges Biden to think of food as 'national security issue' as millions go hungry
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chef-jose-andres-urges-biden-to-think-of-food-as-national-security-issue-as-millions-go-hungry-114232107.html
“We need to have somebody near the president, near the power centers that thinks of food as a national security issue. The same way that September 11 happened, the same way that this pandemic happened one day we may be in a moment where all that food that looks plentiful right now is not there anymore,” Andrés said. “Let's make sure we give the importance to food it deserves. The most important energy on planet Earth is not oil. Oil only moves my car. The most important energy on this planet is food, more food moves all of us.”
The money printing is working and the dollar is in good shape so we are not going to plunge into a depression.Yes there is pain but not enough damage being done to bring the system down.Food issues will improve as checks are being issued and the Biden/Harris team will likely address food deserts and expand food stamps.There may even be a Secretary of Food. Secretary of Food article by José Andrés: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/opinion/covid-pandemic-food-crisis.html?auth=login-google1tap&login=google1tap I am a chef who believes in feeding the many, not just the few. So when quarantines were first introduced around the United States earlier this year, my team at World Central Kitchen, a network of chefs and community organizers stationed around the globe, looked for places where we could feed the masses affected by the combined crises of the pandemic and the recession that it has caused.
You didn’t need to be a genius to find them. The communities suffering most from the effects of Covid-19 are those suffering most from the effects of poverty and economic injustice — places like the Navajo Nation in the American West, which is larger in area than 10 of our states but often remains forgotten when we tell the American story.
For a fraction of the cost of an industry bailout, we can upgrade public school kitchens across the United States and pay the real cost of a free and nutritious school lunch. In times of disaster, our schools can become community kitchens; there are still food deserts in this country, but there are few school deserts. We can dramatically improve the health of our most vulnerable families by improving the food supplies in our corner stores and in our classrooms.
Rather than relying on private donors to fund charities and nonprofits, we can spend federal funds to get our cafes and restaurants back on their feet while the Federal Emergency Management Agency pays for real food programs. We can target our subsidies toward smaller farms and farmers selling healthier foods to their local markets. More than a century after Upton Sinclair’s revelations about the squalid conditions of meatpacking plants in Chicago, we can improve life for our essential workers not only in the fields but in those same plants today.Above all, we can prioritize and streamline food policy under a new cabinet-level Secretary of Food and Agriculture, with a seat on the National Security Council and a mission to improve our nation’s sustenance. We know that a poor diet leads to poor health, so while we wait for new coronavirus vaccines and therapies, improving the quality of our nourishment is the best way to improve our health. We need to prepare not just for recovery but for the next pandemic and the catastrophic threats represented by the climate crisis. By doing so, we can heal much more than hunger.
In central California, in the middle of the pandemic, my team was preparing meals for some members of the United Farm Workers, who pick America’s crops. “We work so hard so that people can get food on their tables. And yet we are the ones who do not have food for ourselves,” said Carolina Elston, who picks blueberries and table grapes. “Receiving this food is a recognition of how hard we work and contribute to the well-being of the country.”
Food is the fastest way to rebuild our sense of community. We can put people back to work preparing it, and we can put lives back together by fighting hunger. We need to hope for a better world in 2021, and there’s nothing more hopeful than the thought of sharing our food, and feeding a nation.
José Andrés is a chef and the founder of World Central Kitchen.
Before the pandemic, I believed there was a possibility to achieve many things. BUT Covid-19 has wrecked the economy and our debts at all levels of our nation will balloon in attempting a recovery.
I have been elated over gardening starting to mushroom in popularity, although it takes at least 10 to build and continually refine a garden to maximum production. I set the example in my part of the country, but few follow me. If local food shortages begin to develop, I will contact my mayor and propose that playgrounds be turned into Victory gardens, except for a small kids area of swings etc., where the kids can play and see food actually growing in the ground, instead of seeing food on grocery shelves.
There will be many sector collapses, but I have an open mind to a better future. You have to have that attitude in being a gardener.
Thanks for the book recommendation!
sumi
Interesting article that deserves to be addressed.I think we will find a good energy usage mix that will work for 50-100 years until better energy solutions emerge.We will continue to use crude oil and all it's products just at a sustainable rate that allows us to avoid a peak oil production crash.The ev/nuclear solution isn't expected to eliminate crude oil use just offset it for a time.We need to continue industrial growth and bring modern farming to all regions which requires modern farming vehicles and fertilizers.We can do this.America did it.We lost forests and now we have new forests.We will adjust!"Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger is a must read.He covers food production,plastics,global warming hysteria and nuclear power.There are real reasons to be hopeful.Social justice,economic and spiritual issues are being addressed.Yes they are.Enjoy the book!
One Little Problem With The "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do With All The "Waste" Gasoline?
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 14, 2020 - 17:40
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/one-little-problem-all-electric-auto-fleet-what-do-we-do-all-waste-gasoline?fbclid=IwAR0lFWYXDvYTTqZx9DbKVkMuX0QnS7SbQrca4iYOtos8yhPsqOiS633hI3Y
"Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent."
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/
A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.
Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.
As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.
BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent.
It’s often difficult to recognize civilization-sized shifts in behavior until after they’ve occurred. Until the pandemic none of the major oil forecasters had seen an imminent demand peak. The debate won’t end now, especially with signs that the pandemic will ease in 2021. But if we look back from here and see the oil peak clearly in the past, what follows will be the evidence of how the energy future snuck up on us.
The peak no one saw coming
Energy analysts usually present multiple scenarios. The gap between each forecast comes down to differing assumptions about government policies, economic conditions and consumer preferences for things such as new electric cars and solar panels. A business-as-usual scenario assumes little impact from policy shifts or new technology.
Most analysts had only predicted declining demand for oil in improbably green scenarios that could only be achieved with far stronger global climate policies. What made BP’s 2020 forecast unique is that peak oil now snuck into its business-as-usual baseline. If technologies and pollution rules improve, the dropoff in demand would be even more swift.
The prospect of a 2019 peak went largely overlooked when BP released its highly regarded Energy Outlook in September. Pinpointing it was made more difficult by the fact that the company hadn’t yet included the latest real-world energy data from 2019.
The chart above updates the outlook with BP’s own oil figures for last year. It also presents estimates using BP’s calculations in exajoules—a more precise measure of energy consumption than a barrels-per-day figure. Without those changes, BP’s scenario suggested oil demand might plateau for the next decade before declining once and for all. BP didn’t respond to requests for comment.
A shakeup in oil accounting
Like any forecast, only time will tell if peak oil demand happened already or won’t come until 2040. That inescapable uncertainty is less important than the newfound agreement that a turning point is here.
The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil.
Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Both of these agencies advise governments on policy.
Fatih Birol, who leads the IEA, said oil demand can only come down with stronger government policies promoting electric cars and regulating petrochemicals. Even though a peak isn’t guaranteed, he told Bloomberg, “the value of oil is going down” and oil-dependent economies “have to prepare themselves before it’s too late.”
The year that lasts a generation
Oil prices rose this November, boosted by positive data from coronavirus vaccine trials and recovering demand in Asia. The sooner an effective vaccine can be deployed, the sooner the world can return to some picture of normalcy. But what will that look like?
“We’re not going back to the same economy,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned in mid-November. “We’re recovering, but to a different economy.” That new economy means people will continue working more from home, traveling less, and staying in to binge on digital programming. About two thirds of Covid’s impact on oil demand will be from setbacks to the global economy, according to BP’s estimates, and one third will be from permanent changes in behavior.
The gap between BP’s predictions for declining demand and the more bullish forecasts of OPEC and IEA can’t be explained by economic outlooks or remote work. Instead, it comes down to different readings of another shift clearly visible this year: drivers switching to battery-powered cars and trucks. Transportation slurps up more than half of the world’s crude, and three quarters of that goes specifically to wheels on the road. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil.
Electric cars didn’t brake for Covid
For the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered. Every major automaker was affected—with the notable exception of Tesla. The electric automaker sold more cars than ever before. Even as the rest of the economy stood frozen, Tesla posted its longest stretch of profitable quarters and ended the year with inclusion in the S&P 500 stock index.
A closer look at the data shows it wasn’t just a Tesla story. Electric vehicles in general managed to thrive even as sales of traditional cars broke down. Both Volkswagen and Daimler saw record-setting declines in total sales, even while sales at their EV divisions doubled.
For backers of electric cars, 2020 was a gut check. It could have been disastrous. Some of the most important EV models to date were launched smack in the middle of the pandemic, including Tesla’s Model Y sport utility vehicle in February and VW’s ID.3 hatchback in September. If consumers rejected them, it could have set back EV investment by years. They did not.
At a time when the world turned upside down, sales of electric cars defied gravity.
No comeback for fossil-fuel cars
During the lockdowns of 2020, city skies cleared of pollution. Bike sales took off. Ethanol intended to be used as a gasoline additive instead made it into hand sanitizer. In many places the faltering economy wasn’t a reason to eliminate environmental regulations—it became a moment to double down.
The divided fortunes of internal combustion engines (ICE) and electric drivetrains was first noticed in 2018, a year when EVs bucked the trend of slowing auto sales. Some analysts started to wonder if fossil-fuel vehicles might never return to sales levels of 2017. Back then the idea of Peak ICE was just a theory. The pandemic made it real.
For peak oil to stick, it will require gradually supplanting more than one billion vehicles in the world. It also means batteries will have to prove themselves in challenging new markets such as freight trucks, which account for more than 15% of oil use, and gas-guzzling pickup trucks, which in 2020 surpassed car sales in the U.S. for the first time.
Batteries for everything on the road
Automakers are working on 35 new all-electric vehicles to be released next year, according to a tally by BNEF. In 2020, Tesla broke ground on a factory in Austin, Texas, to build pickup trucks and big rigs. Well-funded EV startups Rivian and Lucid Motors put the finishing touches on their make-or-break vehicles. Volkswagen sold the first cars on its new modular platform underpinning dozens of future electric models. Chinese automakers prepared for debuts in new Western markets: BYD’s Tang EV600, Geely’s Polestar 2, Xpeng’s P7.
Here are some of the most hotly anticipated models getting ready to hit the streets in 2021.
Battery cars achieved a price-parity milestone
Batteries are a technology, not a fuel, which means the more that are produced, the cheaper they are to make. In fact, every time the global supply of batteries doubles, the cost drops by about 18%, according to data tracked by BNEF. Historically, EVs have been more expensive to build than gasoline cars. That’s changing.
The past year saw the first companies reaching the Holy Grail in battery packs: a cost of $100 per kilowatt hour. That’s the point that analysts have long believed will bring the cost of building electric cars in line with similar gasoline-fueled vehicles. After that, EVs will only get cheaper.
Volkswagen, the biggest automaker by cars sold, confirmed that its batteries had reached the $100 threshold for its 2020 ID.3 sedan and upcoming ID.4 compact SUV. China’s CATL, the world’s biggest battery supplier, also claimed $100 battery nirvana as it struck deals across the auto industry.
Not to be outdone, Tesla hosted an elaborate “battery day” event in September. The audience watched from a parking lot full of Teslas as CEO Elon Musk showed off plans to manufacture battery cells, a first for any
automaker, and to reduce battery costs 56% by 2023. Even if Musk’s estimates are a few years too optimistic—as they sometimes are—it would still put Tesla years ahead of mainstream industry forecasts.
Mass-market EVs became possible only with the falling price of batteries. What comes next could be a virtuous cycle of cost declines. As battery prices improve, customers will snap up more electric cars, making battery prices even cheaper.
Europe’s electric push
Europe has taken back the electric-vehicle crown from China. This year, tough new EU fuel-efficiency regulations kicked in just before the virus did. Consumers responded. In oil-rich Norway, more than 70% of new cars sold in 2020 came with a plug. EV market share across Europe soared to 11% of all new cars in the third quarter, nearly doubling the adoption rate in China.
Under Europe’s new fuel-efficiency rules, companies that fail to reduce their emissions must pay steep fines or else pay a company with cleaner cars to pool emissions and avoid the fees. That option has been a boon for Tesla, creating a revenue stream big enough to pay for its first European factory. Tesla broke ground in Berlin during the pandemic and will start producing cars there next year.
In China, meanwhile, the pandemic provided an unexpected boost for EVs. As part of a pandemic stimulus, EV subsidies that were set to expire in April were extended through 2022. Then in September, the country shocked the world with a pledge to eliminate the net carbon dioxide emissions of the world’s most polluting economy by 2060. Japan and South Korea followed, vowing net-zero emissions by 2050.
The last geopolitical piece to fall into place in 2020 was the U.S., which is responsible for burning one out of every five barrels of oil in the world. President Trump had pulled the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, slashed vehicle efficiency standards, and allowed clean-energy subsidies to expire. Then he lost the election.
One of President-elect Joe Biden’s first moves afterwards was to name former Secretary of State John Kerry as special envoy for climate, a new cabinet-level position. Kerry, an architect of the Paris pact, vowed to rejoin it on the new administration’s first day. A push to set a 2050 end-date for U.S. emissions and a drive to clean up the U.S. electrical grid are likely to follow.
Now the three biggest global powers—the U.S., China, and Europe—are poised to push again on policies that accelerate the transition from oil. Together, the three are responsible for burning more than half of all the world’s crude.
Shifting winds of politics aren’t included in most energy forecasts, says Nat Bullard of BloombergNEF. The geopolitical backdrop gives further credence to the idea that oil demand will plateau and decline, rather than breach new highs. “This moment we’re in has accelerated a lot of change and, amazingly, kept a lot of climate-change policy on the books that could have easily been reneged on,” Bullard says.
California sets a road block for gas cars
There are policy tools available for weaning the world from oil-burning vehicles. One is to simply ban them. Dozens of cities, states, countries and regions have set such targets to phase out new sales of gasoline cars. This year California joined the bunch, setting a phaseout goal of 2035. If California were a country, it would rank above Russia among the top 10 car markets in the world.
The U.K. likewise moved its goal to 2035, up from 2040 previously. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also required that any new car sold after 2030 must at least have a hybrid drivetrain capable of running on a battery.
Most of these bans aren’t codified into laws—at least not with repercussions for cheaters. Instead, policymakers use them to support ambitious policies along the way that are necessary for hitting the target. California has successfully used similar long-term targets to shape its renewable-energy policies, making it one of at least a dozen U.S. states that have policies to eventually mandate entirely green electricity grids.
21st century power transitions
At a London hotel in February, BP’s new chief executive, Bernard Looney, delivered his first speech from a podium bedazzled with a green “Reimagine BP” logo. He described one of the industry’s most far-reaching plans to cut net emissions to zero in 30 years. Two months later, Royal Dutch Shell said that it, too, would zero out emissions by 2050. In May came Total SA, France’s biggest oil producer. Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni had made their own pledges back in 2019.
While key details varied—and were sometimes conspicuously lacking— “net zero emissions” became a sort of demarcation line drawn through the oil industry. Lined up against the old guard are the oil companies that no longer want to be known as oil companies.
It’s difficult to tell which came first for the transitioners. Did a changing outlook for long-term demand result in an overhaul in business strategies?Or were the forecasts for peak oil meant to justify a new business strategy born of public pressure? Perhaps a bit of both—and for the end result, it may not matter.
For investors, one thing is clear: the oil patch has lost its shimmer. Exxon, which was the most valuable company in the world as recently as 2013, was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index this year. It’s now vying to remain above the market value of NextEra Energy Inc., a Florida-based mega-utility focused on wind and solar, which briefly overtook it in October.
Tesla’s stock this year has been on a record-breaking tear, surpassing the value of the next five automakers combined. Stock markets reward growth. Just look at Amazon’s sky-high stock price back when online retail was still a novelty or Netflix’s valuation when cable-TV still dominated. When it comes to the future of oil demand, the market is speaking very clearly.
The term “peak oil” didn’t always refer to demand. It started with the premise that the world’s supply of crude was finite. Eventually no matter how hard drillers tried, they wouldn’t be able to pull more oil out of the ground. A transportation crisis would ensue.
The peak oil hypothesis dominated economic thinking for decades. But it turned out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there’s a lot more oil than we once thought. More recently, the idea of a demand-driven peak took hold. Petrostates fear it, environmentalists pray for it.
‘The writing is all over the bloody wall’
The reason so much attention is given to peak oil is that it can be a turning point from a market where oil is scarce to one where there’s more cheap crude than people know what to do with. The risk of investing in new oil supplies increases. Investors pull back. Political power wanes.
In many ways, Big Oil already began transitioning to an era of excess supply during the oil crash of 2014 to 2016. In the years preceding that crisis, oil prices averaged roughly $110 per barrel and most forecasts imagined similar prices for decades to come. Then came a glut of unexpected supply, driving prices down to less than $40. The value of oil assets was written down by more than $500 billion, according to data
collected by research firm Evaluate Energy. The outlook never recovered.
In the first half of 2020, when oil demand suddenly vanished in the pandemic, the industry wrote down a fresh $170 billion. For U.S. companies, it was the equivalent of 18% of proven reserves. That’s money wiped from the books because companies no longer believed in the value of their oil deposits.
The 2020 write-downs are exceeded only by the second half of 2015, the peak of the last crisis. And there’s more to come. Exxon on Monday logged record charges of as much as $20 billion.
For the five Western supermajors, the 2020 write-downs have already exceeded the last crisis, by far.
If oil companies were only focused on a short-term pandemic crash, BNEF oil analyst David Doherty believes the response would not have been so severe. These charges are more about faltering confidence in long-term demand—peak oil. “The writing is all over the bloody wall,” Doherty says.
Most oil forecasts—at least the business-as-usual scenarios—estimate that even if oil demand peaks, it will continue to play a defining role in energy markets for the foreseeable future. Markets for petrochemicals will continue to grow, and both aviation and shipping will be relatively untouched.
Don’t be so sure. The same market pressures being applied to road transport and moving into other industries. Alternatives to petrochemicals are under development. Small electric planes and hybrid aircraft for longer distance are moving out of the prototype stage. It’s only a matter of time before tanker ships start running on hydrogen.
Once a technology reaches scale and price parity, conditions can change dramatically. That happened with coal, which was expected to dominate for decades—until cheaper natural gas and renewable energy came along. U.S. coal demand peaked in 2008. Nine years later Peabody Energy, the world’s largest coal producer, was bankrupt.
Sunshine is the new oil
For the last century, transport fuels and electricity generation have been almost entirely separate industries. Oil was for vehicles, coal was for power. Drillers versus miners, petrostates versus power utilities. There was very little crossover. For years, the oil industry has watched what was happening to coal and insisted it wouldn’t happen to them.
Back in 2015, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg it would take another 50 years for electric cars to have a material impact on oil demand—probably not in his lifetime. That was the widely held view just five years ago. Few in the oil industry would make that case today.
With the electrification of transport, the distinction between liquid fuels and power markets is blurring. Solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity in most of the world, which means that as power markets grow to meet the new demand from EVs, oil is being largely displaced by power from the sun.
Forecasting energy transitions is painstaking work. For almost two decades, the International Energy Agency’s base scenario has consistently underestimated the rise of solar power. Every year, the models expected the rate of growth to level off, for the industry of solar installers to stop hiring. Every year it did the opposite. This record shows the hazards of basing decisions about the future on today’s policies and technologies, especially when history shows that neither stands still.
The IEA changed its view on solar this year. In the introduction to its 2020 World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s Birol dubbed solar “the new king of electricity.” He wrote that “based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.”
When discussing their forecasts, energy analysts take great pains to point out that they are not making predictions of what will happen but rather presenting different scenarios about what could happen. As Birol frequently points out, the timing of peak oil depends entirely on what the world does next.
The food system is global so there is more good than bad as food can be imported and farming production can be increased as one region gets hit by bad weather,disease or insects.There is storage and people can adjust their consumption so things are not terrible.I would love to see more local gardens in every city and town.Schools and other institutions can have gardens as well.It will be interesting to watch for a reversal of the centralization of food production.It's hard to change habits but the AI trend will kill off jobs and a new focus on less time working is going to change life as we know it.Big change is required and new thinking will develop and shape societies much more than most can imagine.The only chains we have are brain chains.We are shifting into a new age.This is going to be an amazing transformation.Most of our beliefs are going to get a big shock.We have barely scratched the surface of human potential.Keep on growing your own food and keep on growing your mind.You are doing great!
The title of this board, Peak Oil - Epochal Event of Our Lives, purposely includes the word epochal, meaning without parallel.
Why will Peak Oil be without parallel?
Look at past events in the Middle East, which interrupted the supply of oil throughout the world and especially in the United States. These disruptions were geopolitical events and were ultimately resolved with diplomacy.
Peak Oil, on the other hand, will be a geological event, something that mankind has never faced before and certainly cannot control. It will inevitably occur when world oil production has reached its maximum capacity, as oil is a finite resource.
Illustrated below is Hubbert's Curve, which shows the growth, peak, and decline of worldwide, regional, and individual wells. This sequence continues to occur as world population dramatically increases and as Asia, in particular, accelerates its industrialization and its citizenry expands car ownership.
HUBBERT CURVE
Regional Vs Individual Wells
Peak Oil will adversely affect many aspects of our lives. For example, over the last 100 years, gas powered engines have contributed to the discovery and expansion of the automobile and airplane industries. Recently the population of the United States reached 300 million and vehicles now total 225 million. Future population growth, with a corresponding increase in vehicles, will further deplete oil supplies.
Agriculture has changed from numerous labor and animal-intensive family farms to a machine-intensive industry primarily controlled by corporations. Further, much of the increased productivity of farm soil emanates from petroleum-based fertilizers.
Transportation and agriculture are just two segments of society that must adjust to prospective oil declines. The critical question is how will our entire society adjust to a worldwide oil scarcity.
M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist, predicted in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak between 1965 to 1970. In hindsight, it did peak in 1970.
Mr. Hubbert's warning was given, yet it has been largely ignored. Oil discoveries and plentiful oil reserves in Alaska and the North Sea made many people complacent. In addition, new technologies were developed, so that oil was sucked up from the earth as if by giant straws. Although oil was abundant in the 1980's and 1990's, reserves in this century are in demonstrable decline.
China, in particular, recognizes the potential shortage of oil. It canvasses the world making oil deals to secure its energy future. It is also currently building 30 nuclear reactors and 7 hydroelectric dams to supplement its energy needs.
Sadly, the United States lingers behind. Its attitude seems to be that oil will always be abundant, probably because it has been in the past. Even with the dramatic crude oil price increases of the past three years, there still is a reluctance to confront this potential problem.
PURPOSE OF THIS BOARD
One purpose of this board is to provide I-Hub members with a repository of Peak Oil articles. Hopefully these will stimulate interest in the topic and I invite readers to post their thoughts.
Another important purpose of this board is to help people in preparing for or coping with the Peak Oil event. To this end, various links by category have been supplied below.
Good luck!
sumisu
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TABLE OF CONTENTS :
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GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING
A companion #board-9881 titled "SUSTAINABLE LIVING FOR CHALLENGING TIMES" was spun off from this board to provide an archive of postings and sources of information which will aid individuals and communities to adopt and survive in a world of declining energy resources.
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PEAK OIL READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/peakoil.html
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PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS
Peak Oil Clock http://sydneypeakoil.com/peak_oil_clock/
ASPO - USA http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=35
ASPO - INTERNATIONALhttp://www.peakoil.net
Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/index.html
Dry Dipstick http://www.drydipstick.com
Energy Balance http://tinyurl.com/42awvh
Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net/
Energy Bulletin: Peak Oil Primer and Links http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
Energy Outlook http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/
Global Public Media - Public Service Broadcasting For A Post Carbon World http://globalpublicmedia.com/
Life After the Oil Crash http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
National Petroleum Council http://www.npc.org
NEI Nuclear Notes http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/
Peak Oil Design http://peakoildesign.com/
Peak Oil News & Message Boards http://www.peakoil.com/
PLENTY http://www.plentymag.com/
Post Carbon Institute http://www.postcarbon.org/
Simmons & Company International http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
The Coming Global Oil Crisis http://www.oilcrisis.com
The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/
The View From The Peak http://www.theviewfromthepeak.net
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NARRATIVE LINKS
Peak Oil FAQ #msg-33046927
Peak Oil Report by Peak Oil Associates International #msg-32147901
Evolutionary psychology and peak oil #msg-30634038
Roscoe Bartlett Discusses His Special Order Speeches #msg-29893771
OIL SHOCK AND ENERGY TRANSITION by Andrew McKillop, May 7, 2008 #msg-29196735
Energy Bull Market Fundamentals Remain Strong, Chris Puplava, 2008 http://tinyurl.com/5nze3h
The Truth About Oil by Vasko Kohlmayer, 05 08 08 http://tinyurl.com/3guotj
The Gospel According to Matthew, by Mimi Swartz, 02/01/08 #msg-26286577
Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil, Matt Simmons, Nov 2007
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf
Megaprojects update: Just how close to Peak Oil are we? 10/18/07 Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre http://tinyurl.com/33rl3q
Crisis, what energy crisis? Euan Mearns, The Oil Drum: Europe. 07/03/07 Over 50 links to Oil Drum articles from the past year are provided which combined provide a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding peak oil and energy decline. http://www.energybulletin.net/31608.html
On the Precipice: Energy Security & Economic Stability on the Edge - by Daniel Davis 07/17/07 http://www.aspo-usa.com/assets/documents/Danny_Davis_On_the_Precipice.pdf
Evolutionary psychology and peak oil: A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity. by Dr. Michael E. Mills http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm
Peak oil: Facts converge with theory http://tinyurl.com/2gtud4
11 incontrovertible truths of oil production & peak oil arguments by PeakEngineer, 05/23/07 #msg-19902674
Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room, © Copyright 2007, Paul Chefurka http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html
CRUDE OIL Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, GAO Report, 03/29/07 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
DIE OFF - a population crash resource page http://www.dieoff.com/index.html
Portland, Oregon City Council unanimously creates a peak oil task force - 05/10/06 http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/
Testimony before the Australian Senate by Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), 07/11/06 http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf
The Hirsch Report - February 2005 #msg-10310387
The Financial Sense Energy Resource Page http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm
Financial Sense Big Picture Archive http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/2006.html
OIL: A TRAVELOGUE OF ADDICTION by Chicago Tribune, 07/29/06 (Suggested viewing: Open link and click on Watch documentary, left-hand column). http://tinyurl.com/h78ve
Exploring emotional reactions to peak oil by Kathy McMahon http://www.energybulletin.net/19718.html
Denial Of Energy Crisis Is A Conditioned Response, By Dave Wheelock #msg-25561271
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Hubbert peak theory From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
A Tribute To M. King Hubbert http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/
Outlook for Fuel Reserves http://www.mkinghubbert.com/files/hubbert_1974.pdf
Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, 1956 Published on 8 Mar 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Mar 2006. http://www.energybulletin.net/13630.html
Shell Execs Briefed on Peak Oil in 1956
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AS A TRANSIENT PHENOMENON IN HUMAN HISTORY
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/wwf1976/
Are we at the peak of oil production? #msg-39230370#msg-29389791
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ROBERT L. HIRSCH
The Hirsch Report - February 2005 #msg-10310387
Robert L. Hirsch from Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_L._Hirsch
Robert Hirsch - Peak Oil Video - #msg-33832912
FSN: Energy Roundtable: Jim Puplava, Matthew Simmons, Robert L. Hirsch, & Jeffrey G. Rubin Discussion - 02/02/08 http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/2008/0202.html
Dr. Robert Hirsch: "We Are Staring Directly Into An Energy Storm in The Next 2-3 Years"
#msg-69993495
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Simmons & Company web site
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Book Review: Twilight in the Desert - The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
Read more: http://blogcritics.org/books/article/book-review-twilight-in-the-desert/#ixzz0nXMuOsbg
Peak Oil Solution: The Simmons Plan
http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/02/10/peak-oil-solution-the-simmons-plan/
Presentation at 2006 Boston World Oil Conference, 10/26/2006
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102#
President Carter's Address to the Nation On Energy Policy (April 18, 1977) Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y6pPF_lzsU
Transcript: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_energy.html
Energy Policy and Conservation Executive Order 12003, July 20th, 1977
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7842
Carter's Brave Vision on Energy by David Morris, Monday, October 10, 2005 by the Minneapolis Star Tribune
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1010-27.htm
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Congressman Bartlett is leading efforts to change U.S. energy policy to address the challenges of peak oil. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 and is in permanent decline. World oil production will also peak - perhaps disastrously soon. http://bartlett.house.gov
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett video on Peak Oil in 7 parts. . .
The House of Representatives formed a Peak Oil caucus in 2005 with 8 members: #msg-30864250
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NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ON PEAK OIL
"Tapped Out" by Paul Roberts, August 2008 http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/06/world-oil/roberts-text
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AUDIOS & VIDEOSPeak Oil - Chris Martenson http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil
Twilight In the Desert http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfEO3PCEeis
Peak Oil - Robert Hirsch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSbfvZiJ9g0
Peak Oil - Crude Impact #msg-30619202
CNN Special Investigation - OUT OF GAS #msg-30188572
91 86 90 - Peak Oil Number-Crunching http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-koGwRu_A
Oil and the 'New International Energy Order' - Michael Klare, 04 14 08 http://tinyurl.com/59947u
"A conversation with John Hofmeister" - Charlie Rose, 03 25 08 http://tinyurl.com/23o8py
Video: A High-Risk Barrel, September 28, 2007 http://novakeo.com/?p=1054&jal_no_js=true&poll_id=10
Matt Savinar - Coast to Coast, 10/07 http://klrietmann.bingodisk.com/bingo/public/Savinarc2c111.mp3
A Crude Awakening http://tinyurl.com/yp88uu
Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil, ASPO Conference at Boston University 10 27 06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102&q=peak+oil'
Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes on Peak Oil, 2005 Energy Conference - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2992397199507996758&hl=en
Peak Oil, Richard Heinberg, 09/11/06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2141508903056009420
Peak Oil: Fireside Chat with Julian Darley - http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=julian%20darley%2C%20boston%20world%20oil%20conference&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv#q=julian+darley&hl=en&emb=0
Peak Oil & The Party's Over http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xl3J4Kpy88&feature=PlayList&p=F39AC0DCDA7ADEC2&index=0&playnext=1
Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis: From NewCulture.org, 07 27 06 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4&mode=related&search
The Long Emergency: Surviving Catastophies of the 21st Century, 10 30 05 http://tinyurl.com/2g6p35
Real Oil Crisis - 11 24 05 (Video Presentation) http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm
The Geopolitical Consequences of Peak Oil: Michael Klare, 10 27 06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3121561902567229690&hl=en
The End of Suburbia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug&feature=related
World Made By Hand (Video Promo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbEe8v4YpgA
T. Boone Pickens on CNBC [discusses alternative energies] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylI4iQ-5iXg
Dr. Al Husseini, retired head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco, interview with CNBC on 03/27/08: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=697807590&play=1
RICHARD HEINBERG on OUR POST-CARBON FUTURE http://tinyurl.com/636juw
Megan Quinn Bachman - Peak Oil, Community & The Future in four parts:
Calm Before the Storm, Richard Heinberg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajqgOCxGEAo
Running on Empty: Life Without Cheap Oil http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqg3P3wOV60
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A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years An Overlooked, Practical, and Affordable Approach Using Mature Existing Technology by Alan S. Drake, May 2006 • Rev. October 2006 http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of world oil production by Alan S. Drake 12/19/05 in Light Rail Now http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
Public Transport Industry Issues http://www.lightrailnow.org/industry_issues.htm#electrification
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COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM
The Community Solution http://www.communitysolution.org/
WORLD CHANGING http://www.worldchanging.com/about/
How to Wean a Town Off Fossil Fuels http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/005135.html
A Community Solution to Peak Oil: An interview with Megan Quinn http://www.energybulletin.net/5721
Sustain Lane | The Healthy, Sustainable Living Community Resource http://www.sustainlane.com/
Culture Change http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php
Communities, Refuges, and Refuge-Communities by Zachary Nowak http://www.energybulletin.net/21172.html
Karavans - Moving Toward a New World of Self-Sufficiency, Sustainability, and Genuine Community http://www.karavans.com/peakoil.html
New Urbanism http://www.newurbanism.org/
The New Urbanisn http://www.newurbannews.com/AboutNewUrbanism.html
Online NewsHour - New Urbanism http://www.pbs.org/newshour/newurbanism/
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OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL
Closing the 'Collapse Gap': The USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US - by Dmitry Orlov, 12/04/06
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
The power of community: How Cuba survived peak oil - by Megan Quinn, 02/25/06 http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html
"Flush With Energy" By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN August 10, 2008 #msg-31394853
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FSN: Lutz Kleveman, 01/24/04 - "The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Kleveman.html
FSN: Michael T. Klare, 01/15/05 - "Blood and Oil" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Klare.html
FSN: Michael T. Klare, 6/21/08. "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2008/Klare.html
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CANTARELL OIL FIELD & DEPLETION
Cantarell Field by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field Is Dying, by G.R. Morton, 08 14 04
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/1651
Cantarell Decline Perspective, Jim KIngsdale's "Energy Investment STRATEGIES" 07 08 08
http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/07/08/cantarell-decline-perspective/
A Storm Called Cantarell by Sean Brodrick, "Money and Markets' 09 03 08
#msg-31902352
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Export Land Medel by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices By: Doug Casey, Casey Research LLC, 06 04 08 http://www.321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey060508.html
An Update on Mexico Export Land Model by GraphOilogy 01 22 08
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/update-on-mexico-export-land-model.html
Oil Outlook: "Export Land Model" by Jeff Rubin on CNBC, October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ed9jsKAOHU
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CHARTS AND ILLUSTRATIONS OF INTEREST
A significant example of collapsing oil production is Cantarell, recently the largest oil field in the Western Hemisphere. From over 2 million barrels per day in 2004-2005, Cantarell is now producing at around 700,000 barrels per day. [credit chart to energycrisis.com]
The amount of oil you can produce can only ever equal the amount of recoverable oil you discover. The area under both curves must eventually be equal. [ http://futureproofkilkenny.org/?page_id=110 ]
[source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
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