PD IV

[was Steve]

okay. taxes do suck. i started in on them a bit last week. lots more to do yet.

[sallen]

thanks, steve. phone call maybe next week. I don't particularly feel like discussing this stuff. also need to get my tax stuff sorted out so I can get the forms off to clients in a timely manner and burn through a few thousand more in accounting fees. some things I won't miss...

[was Steve]

im going to miss you very much. id like to talk on the phone if you have some time this afternoon. i was away for longer than i thoght during the day today.

best of luck in whatever you pursue!

[sallen]

Calling it quits for trading as of today. Market got too tough for me. Good luck, guys.


sallen

[sallen]

back to my short position at today's close due to today's breakdown. suspect we're at a short term bottom here and not the least bit optimistic about my near term prospects in this trade, with some luck the rally won't be strong enough to whipsaw me back out of the position again.

[sallen]

http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

[sallen]

moving to cash at today's close.

[sallen]

the complacency in this market is absolutely incredible. growth at a reasonable price I could understand. growth at any price I didn't understand so well. now zero or negative growth at any price is just too far out of the realm of normalcy for me to comprehend. was the "bottom" of two days ago such a capitulation low that we need to open 10 and 15 points higher each day from there on no particular news? are stocks so priced for disaster they need to run up 5 and 10% on warnings? yikes. I hope I'm not on the long side when this party ends.

[was Steve]

the market split the diff to fark us both. typical behavior (gg)

[sallen]

so much for a collapse too. reassuring to see we can still both be wrong on the same day despite being on opposite sides.

[was Steve]

like ground hog day except for the higher open. catch you later on manana

so much for plus 20. at least it stayed green. ( a big achievement lately)

[sallen]

good luck with it. I'll be gone most of the day tomorrow. I figure we'll open higher, rally for a while, trade sideways for 4 to 5 hours, then selloff into the close. how does that sound? ;)

[was Steve]

yup. im moving to another fund so that i can cry wehn the ndx goes up more than my selection

[sallen]

when it rains, it pours. I wrote the book on that. you sticking long for tomorrow?

[was Steve]

lots of semis out with earnings tonight. of course i sold my 100% acct in semis for ndx and gave up over 1% in rel performance today. it is really starting to be no fun

[sallen]

yep, that's what I decided. due for a strong close, and even if we head south again we know we'll most likely gap back up tomorrow morning, because we do so nearly every day.

[was Steve]

no harm no foul. eod run could be coming. can always reposition manana if so desire

[sallen]

bailed from my puts for about breakeven. selling took longer to develop than I'd hoped. scared of the eod jam.

[sallen]

The standard slap on the wrists and pocket change fine. sigh



2:11pm 01/25/05 Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs settle SEC IPO charges By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley (MWD: news, chart, profile) and Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile) will each pay the Securities and Exchange Commission $40 million to settle charges they mishandled initial public offerings. The SEC said both companies broke securities law by trying to make customers who received IPO allocations buy more shares in the aftermarket. Shares of Morgan Stanley were recently trading up 82 cents to $54.89, while shares of Goldman Sachs were trading up 34 cents to $103.58.

[was Steve]

it was a joke. tough crowd today

[sallen]

ok. enjoy

[was Steve]

got to run some errands . off to donate sperm and blood. tradign losses lately forcing me to make money other ways (gg)

[sallen]

you'll just have to make it from trading.

[was Steve]

too bad. we are going to italy next year and the money would make for one heck of a vacation

[sallen]

I was thinking the same thing. they may not be willing to pay us so much to sit in front of our computers all day.

[was Steve]

its not like anyone is going ot see it. my wifes in oregon and im home alone with the dogs. i run at night. skip a few happy hours and no one will know (gg)

[sallen]

nevermind then

[was Steve]

i dont have that much dignity. id put just about anything on my head for a month if i got paid almost 38 grand to do so

[was Steve]

the bull chit will never end. however, we wont have such prolonged periods of it over the next few years

[sallen]

at least we still have some dignity. :)


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=817&e=15&u=/ap/forehead_advertising

[sallen]

that's a better way to put it. I can't remember anything for several years.

anyway, I think I've made the necessary adjustments, and if the bullshit reemerges we'll find out.

[was Steve]

they will be in my head as long as my memory holds out

[sallen]

a possibility that will be in the back of my mind for the next several years at least. :)

[was Steve]

or bring in the big guns of the new era brigade to save the day

[sallen]

could be. still a buy program away from getting stopped out. on the other hand, only 6 points off the low of the day for the ndx, breaking that may bring in a seller or two.

[was Steve]

your puts starting to look like a fine idea.

[sallen]

yeah, that's rough. but the bullish euphoria is giving everyone plenty of opportunities to exit longs and/or enter shorts. and once this collapses, we'll have much better volatility which is what we need.

[was Steve]

i was having fun up to wed. i had been long and outperforming the indexes nicely. then kablammo. i passed on a short for the sake of 7 ndx points and paid dearly!!!

[was Steve]

LOL!

[sallen]

20 may be a best case scenario. ;)

[sallen]

I wish you'd caught the decline, btw. been a fun few weeks.

[was Steve]

max targets are surprises. its a best case scenario. give me 20 and im stoked

[sallen]

thanks. I'm happy to have bought a bit more time.


1515 close today would surprise me, but I can agree we're overdue for a strong session. I'm thinking another red day at this point, but if we don't start down by 1:00 I'd be discouraged. of course the beauty of eod trading is it doesn't matter what we think about intraday action. if yesterday was the promised and heavily advertised bottom, all I can do is hope I end up on the long side soon. good luck with your trade.

[was Steve]

i was super happy you did too. i knew what it meant if you hadnt and i kind of like having you around (gg). as for today, i dont see much odds of this melting today. in fact it should finish up 20 or more. i have the max target for today at 1515 which would be a rise of 35 points

[sallen]

Yes, a nice recovery, still a lot of ground to make up. very pleased I got back into that short on 12/31. no change of signal as of yet though. surprised by the strength so far this morning, but wondering if this isn't going to turn into a massive collapse by the end of the day. bottoms don't tend to get made so easily (at least they didn't used to). anyway, picked up some puts here to play for a nasty reversal, with a stop above the morning high, all of two points away. seems like a good risk/reward...

[was Steve]

this dump has almost got you whole from the october short. got to feel good about that. i really missed the boat on holing on to mine this month. another oppty lost.

[RF 1776]

I'll be flying in on THURSDAY, January 13. Arrival is at 3:15pm into Atlanta and my flight out isn't scheduled to depart till 4:45pm--so I would have a comfortable hour to meet.

If you drop me an email ([e-mail]), I'll reply with my cell phone number and then we can plan to talk after the close on Wednesday or Thursday morning before my departure.

I hope we can get together. It would be fun to catch-up and actually meet in person

[sallen]

Thanks. Yes, still in Atlanta. The 14th is Friday, not Thursday, right? 3:00 to 4:00 is the only time of the day I have to be at my computer (end of day fund trading only for me these days). I couldn't really tell you for sure until the day before or the morning of, but I could possibly make it there if you'll be here on Thursday the 13th. Friday the 14th I can't do though. What time does your flight arrive in Atlanta?

[Rick Louden]

I just finished the rather painful process of documenting my results for 2004. My model ended the year down 7.7%.

Since January 1, 2002 I have been posting every trade of my model on SI (in 2002 and 2003) and Ihub (2004). In those three years my model is up 36% vs the QQQ which is up 2%, so at least I have some consolation that over a longer period I am outperforming the market. However, the backtesting i had done on the model certainly suggested a better return than 36% over a three year period.

Hopefully 2005 will go back to more volatility and I'll have one of those 30%+ years that are more fun!

Rick

[RF 1776]

Hey Sallen. Thanks for the warm wishes. Congratulations on the good news about your wife.

Do you still live in Atlanta? If so, I'm stopping over for two hours on my way to Naples, Florida.

It is a long shot, but any chance you'd be up for coffee at the airport--say around 3:30 or 4:00pm on Thursday, January 14?

Reply in the forum, or drop me an email at [e-mail].