Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)

[maverick one]

Agro rate hikes likely will force hands of Mgmt to further reduce div. I’m trading it.

[Scotttrader80]

Yup, you can bank more trading it than holding long, they have a great pattern easy to find the lows

[maverick one]

I’m adding on dips and flipping on spikes for some time now. Doing ok. Long term holds- nyte. Timing ex’s and divs. Very predictable.

[maverick one]

Problem is rates will likely continue to increase over 22’ and into 23’ and ORC will have to cover that by decreasing dividend again likely. Sure they built baked it on now for the moment down to .055, but that likely will be reduced again. Which means PPS, will decrease dramatically once again. It’s a slow spiral down. They can’t stop it either, because they have no power over interest rate decisions.

For dividends paid monthly it’s great. However, the PPS investment, you want stability and not prone to decline, on the other flip side of this, the PPS, will likely be impacted when they IMO possibly are forced to reduce further down the road 3/4 quarters the dividend yet again.

But then again, PPS, may continue to drop regardless without any more reductions of dividends with zero connection to rates. Highly leveraged. IMO- vulnerable. I’m betting on a continued further drop in PPS.

The dividends imo is the light bulb the moths are attracted to, however, the fly swatter nobody talks about is the continued drop in PPS. Wont surprise me if PPS drops to low 3’s and crosses below that...so yeah divs look good in account - but your getting principal cash invested reductions in original value. You hold, you eventually lose on the PPS declines. Once your in, your in. Who wants to take a loss on further PPS declines?

That part sucks, big time. Divs sure- great. But look at declining PPS, and rising rates are not going to be over for ORC imo and further rate increases will occur and div slashed yet again - then looking at even further massive PPS declines.

If your day trading it month to month, ok. Long term - imo- nope.

[MMAS]

You are off by + 14 cents.

Interest rates caused the decline. It will go up.

Again dollar cost averaging will still work.

[leftovers]

WOW That looks like the Suicide Death Cross just fell under the final decent line.....

Charting ORC's harrowing fall from ~$15 to $3.86.

[bar1080]

Charting ORC's harrowing fall from ~$15 to $3.86. Note too that "penny stock" ORC now is below Wall Street's sweet spot for pricing, suggesting a reverse split may loom. But Bemini knows their target buyer, unsophisticated old geezers who crave the appearance of high yield.

[Porterhouse10]

9 year chart is a COMPLETE DISASTER, Decreasing Book Value, Massive principle loss, but hey you get a dividend!

[JMCK6193]

God I hope not.....

[leftovers]

much better chance this goes to 2 than 5....

[JMCK6193]

But on a positive note I've made a boat load of money.

[JMCK6193]

Hey bar, what's the chances for this to get back up to $5
soon?

[bar1080]

Any company can pay *ludicrous* dividends if it's juiced with enough leverage. Juiced with enough debt.

I actually look at balance sheets.

[bar1080]

... The Shrinking Dividend:

 Jan 28, 2022	0.055 Dividend 
 Dec 30, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Nov 29, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Oct 28, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Sep 29, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Aug 30, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Jul 29, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Jun 29, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 May 27, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Apr 29, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Mar 30, 2021	0.065 Dividend 
 Feb 25, 2021	0.065 Dividend

[Scotttrader80]

nice score, in addition to ORC I have a bunch of other divy payers too, VALE is one of them

ACP
ARR
CLM
CRF
ECC
FSK
GOF
KBWD
KIROY
LIFZF
HQH
IFN
IRM
MMP
NEWT
NXP
OHI
OPP
RIV
PTMN
SSSS
QYLD
TSLX
VALE

a bunch

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Daves-Dividends-Payers-22057

[THE GREEN EAGLE]

got some @3.70
i'm also in:VALE,USOI,CHKR,PVL,VOC,FCNE.NWX.V

[Scotttrader80]

Anyone snag some of those $3.00's?

[MMAS]

Just hit $ 4.00

Massive I tell you....massive losses...oh wait... :)

[THE GREEN EAGLE]

bouncing right back up!....bought more.

[Scotttrader80]

YuuuuuuuuuuuP!

[MMAS]

Almost 11 million Shares Traded Today do not agree :)

[Porterhouse10]

Dont see too many posts on Massive loss of Principle, but hey theres always the Dividend, haa

[leftovers]

2 years of dividends wiped off the map...

[Porterhouse10]

Massive Principle lost! Massive

[maverick one]

Shorty has their # - but dividend looks sound for now.

[maverick one]

That’s 100% correct

[bar1080]

"Lastly and more alarmingly, ORC's poor profitability persisted despite its employment of higher leverage. The next chart shows its leverage. As seen, ORC's leverage has been on average 8.9x in the past decade, and its current leverage is on par with the historical average.

To put things under perspective, the average leverage ratio for the mREIT sector is about 6.6x only. As a result, ORC's leverage is 34% higher than the sector average. A substantial amount that makes it a lot riskier than the sector, especially with the unfolding interest rate hikes according to the latest dot-plot announced by the Fed. And we will detail the interest risks later at the end of this article."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480014-orchid-island-orc-stock-price-drop-doesnt-make-it-safer

[bar1080]

SA: "Does 15% Price Drop Make ORC Safer? Unfortunately No"

"* Since I first published my bearish thesis on Orchid Island Capital in Aug 2020, the stock has lost 14.9% of its price and the dividend yield has surged to 15.6%.

* If you are wondering if it has become safer now or feel attracted to the 15%+ yield, you need to be aware of the potential dangers.

* The stock suffers low and inconsistent profitability, high leverage, valuation risks, and may not be able to afford its current dividend in the near future.

* In particular, its chronic loss of book value makes it kind of an annuity - with a bad leak - for shareholders."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480014-orchid-island-orc-stock-price-drop-doesnt-make-it-safer

[Porterhouse10]

But, but you get good dividends, bwahhh

[bar1080]

ORC falls continually as chart below shows. From 2013, when it IPOd, to now. From $14 to $4 while the broad market has soared.

[Porterhouse10]

Ooofff

[leftovers]

One year of dividends wiped off the map!

massive principle losses

[MMAS]

Exactly..


The Economic policies of last year created inflation and then they crater wall street and economy trying to control it....

[Scotttrader80]

Same thing happened a couple of years ago, ORC dropped the divy to .05 cents, next month they bumped up to .055 next month they bumped it up to .06 then finally settled at .065

no big deal

[Porterhouse10]

15.4% dividend decrease and massive principle losses, but hey how about that Dividend? Lmao

[Scotttrader80]

The low hits next week,

BUY the Dips!!!

[Scotttrader80]

Snatch up these dips, once the economy turns around (next administration) Divy payers will too, its ALLLLL relevant. Thank you Covid

[bar1080]

Continual drops > > >

[leftovers]

that's what people have been saying for years here. I started following this stock at 10-12 dollars a share and they were paying out .14 at the time! It's been down down down every year for this one...

Only means a more sustainable Dividend.

However You should be able to pick up some nice cheepies at new lows today!

[MMAS]

Only means a more sustainable Dividend.

You can than throw Fed for the rise in interest rates.

However when the current situation is changed the dividend will increase.

[bar1080]

SA: "ORC stock dips after dividend cut due to margin compression."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3788102-orchid-island-capital-stock-dips-after-dividend-cut-due-to-margin-compression

[leftovers]

Orchid Island Capital expects to report Q4 loss/share 27c, Cuts Monthly Dividend, Shares down 3% After Hours .....

Orchid Island Capital stock dips after dividend cut due to margin compression

[leftovers]

Rut Row ! yet another dividend hair cut for ORC...

Orchid Island Capital (NYSE:ORC) declares $0.055/share monthly dividend, -15.4% decrease from prior dividend of $0.065.

Forward yield 14.43%

Payable Feb. 24; for shareholders of record Jan. 31; ex-div Jan. 28.

[maverick one]

I’ve been adding still on pull backs- plan to continue. The div is my top priority.

[bar1080]

A New Year's Day tradition. Created 2022 Finviz portfolios for my stocks and for the nine stock indexes I follow.

One useful paper portfolio of mine has 15 NYSE stocks that yielded over 10% a year ago. Four of those stocks rose in 2021. Eleven fell. That overall portfolio was was off 8.6% not counting dividends which is stunningly dreadful considering the broad market's 2021 performance rose 29%.

Once again we see that ultra high yield issues are often sucker plays. Finviz shows ORC off 14.% excluding dividends.

[Scotttrader80]

Usually this time of year into the new years 1st quarter we'll see the sp adjusting to the NAV but as the year progresses, the sp may adjust to the upper $5.00 to low $6.00 area, similar to last year, imo

[Sean Portman]

Is the share selling the reason for these dips?

[Scotttrader80]

Indeed, the lull for this company is usually November December January shedding off the previous year. $ORC will be back to the $5.00's then $6.00's in no time, meanwhile we keep banking that divy

[MMAS]

The Market Agrees with you.


:)

[leftovers]

Nothing new there ORC has been losing share value and dividend pay out value for many years now !

Unfortunately ORC is losing share value at the same time it is losing dividend value.