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Unusual call activity (26:1 over puts) is also being seen in the iShares US Real Estate ETF...
$IYR up $1.07 to $83.74.
Call volume currently stands at 25,179 contracts, 9x the daily average.
Most of today's call volume can be attributed to a large call vertical spread that was sold 12,000 times in the September 15th expiration week. The strikes at play were the September 15th 85.00 and 87.50 strikes.
The trader sold these call vertical spreads at a price of $0.60 when the B/A spread was $0.57 x $0.67 (suggesting bearish intent).
Open interest coming into the day was only 6,500 contracts, collectively, so it appears that these are opening transactions.
The median home sales price is $416,100 as of the second quarter of 2023. That's a 26% increase from 2020, when the median was $329,000.
Inventory is low, driving prices higher, IMO bc homeowners do not want to jeopardize their low interest rate from past mortgages with the current national average:
30 year fixed rate at ~8.1%.
15 year fixed rate at ~7.15%
10/6 ARM ~7.8%
Update on $FULC
I took a LONG position on this yesterday and as of this post... $FULC is up another 16% to a share price of $6.30.
Continuing to track, more to come.
Abercrombie & Fitch, $ANF
Is up 24% today after the teen clothing retailer blew past estimates for the second quarter.
The company reported net income of $56.9 million, or $1.10 a share.
Sales rose to $935.3 million from $805.1 million in the year-ago quarter.
Option activity is 12x the daily average, with the August 25th 50.00 strike calls and the August 25th 49.00 strike puts pacing the way.
Both strikes have traded more than 2,100 contracts already today.
Wow... I hope my vintage sweaters from 25 years ago are selling at a high on PoshMart.
Fulcrum Therapeutics Inc., $FULC , up $2.10 to $6.02
Option volume is running at nearly 14x the daily average on this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company which is primarily being driven by activity on two contracts on the September 15th expiration:
6.00 call (volume is 3,127 vs. open interest of 0): The majority of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought at various times for between $0.35-0.55 each, which suggests bullish intent.
7.50 call (volume is 1,833 vs. open interest of 126): The majority of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought at various times for between $0.20-0.35 each, which suggests bullish intent.
Unusual put activity ~26:1 over calls is being seen in diversified insurance provider Arch Capital Group Inc, $ACGL , -$0.27 to $74.68 which is primarily being driven by activity on the September 15th 70.00 put.
Volume on this contract is 1,918 versus open interest of 363, indicating a fresh positioning.
The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.65 each, which suggests a bearish intent.
Unusual Put Activity:
Pure Storage Inc. $PSTG, up $0.32 to $37.14 at time of posting, has a ~12:1 over calls being driven by activity on the October 20th 35.00 put.
Volume on this contract is 3,756 versus open interest of 101, so we know that the activity primarily represents fresh positioning.
The bulk of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought around the same time at the ask price of $1.70 each, which suggests bearish intent.
$NVDA flow just getting comical at this point. I'm getting notified at a silly pace and that's using significant filtering!
4/21 Toy Manufacturing Play Update: Doll of the Year Finalists and Toy of the Year Finalists:
Upon research, the 2023 Toy of the Year Awards shall be held on Sept. 29, 2023 in New York City. Candidates as follows:
ACTION FIGURE OF THE YEAR
Toys that represent a person or fictional character intended for active, imaginative, and narrative-based play.
Gunslinger Spawn with Horse by McFarlane Toys
Heroes of Goo Jit Zu Deep Goo Sea Triple Goo King Hydra by Moose Toys
Jurassic Park Real FX Baby T-Rex by Wow! Stuff
Jurassic World: Dominion Roar Strikers by Mattel, Inc.
Pokémon Train & Play Deluxe Pikachu by Jazwares
Star Wars: Chatter Back Chopper Animatronic by Hasbro
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem by Playmates Toys
DOLL OF THE YEAR
Toys that include baby, toddler, and fashion dolls.
Barbie The Movie Dolls by Mattel, Inc.
CreativeSoul Dolls by Disney Consumer Products
Disney The Little Mermaid Ariel Doll by Mattel, Inc.
Latinistas Fashion Dolls by Purpose Toys
Magic Mixies Pixlings by Moose Toys
The Fresh Beats Collection by World of EPI
Under the Sea Exploring Ariel Doll by JAKKS Pacific
Personal Opinion:
Mattel $MAT is up, as of this post, 1.13% to $21/share.
Doll of the year, Barbie or The Little Mermaid, both manufactured by Mattel, are in the running.
More to come but I am getting more and more excited on my futures play with $MAT
Aug 21 - Flow Update
There isn't much to see here today, except the $NVDA show. They're just stacking up bets on earnings for Wednesday. An at the money call is almost $30 right now for this week.
Seeing sizable trades coming in over $500. They're betting on NVDA delivering on the huge expectations...and then some. I can't stomach NVDA way up here, but I'm also not crazy enough to short it. Just tailing it with my $AMD position right now.
Some unusual put activity (better than 7:1 over calls) is being seen in Shift4 Payments Inc. ( $FOUR + $1.97 to $55.96) which is primarily being driven by a 2,943 contract block that was bought on the September 15th 50.00 put at the ask price of $1.55 (open interest is 2,109).
We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place at the ask price.
"For the third time this week, some unusual call activity (~16:1 over puts) is being seen in the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares ($YANG + $0.72 to $11.47) as option traders primarily target the January 2024 11.00 call.
Volume on this contract is 9,434 versus open interest of 808, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The bulk of the transactions on this contract consisted of various mid-sized blocks that were being bought at various times at the ask price of $2.90 each.
Since YANG is a leveraged bearish ETF, the positioning suggests that the call buyers are bearish on China."
Intersting...
Aug 18 - Flow Check - OpEx Day
There's nothing interesting on the Flow today. Today's OpEx (Options Expiration day), so the market is just in a 🐍 pattern until all the mechanical stuff is done.
My current positions are AMD 110c 9/15 (hoping for a run into NVDA ER next week) and DFS 95c 9/15 (playing a bounce + flow on this one). I averaged down yesterday on DFS (to 3.96) so we're looking good today -- DFS is +1.5%
Looking for Monday to be green after the ass kicking the market took this week and OpEx behind us.
They shot my boy $AMD. Hoping that bullish flow from $NVDA last few weeks ends up working out
Opinion:
Possible Long Idea: (Research to Come)
Years and years ago when I had a stock broker mentor from ATL...When we would talk about options and future trading... He always kept telling me to seriously look into toy companies to LONG in the late summer... and those companies were always Companies that make toys and the oncoming of Christmas Spending...
Kids going back to school, parents moving, vacations... etc.etc.... Money not spent on toys.
I would be very curious to track $MAT (Mattel), $HAS (Hasbro), and companies of the like.
Seriously interested in Mattel due to the fact they make Barbie dolls... and over the summer... My guess is that lots of little girls are gonna be asking Santa for Barbies heading into the holiday season based on the blockbuster success of the movie.
Food for thought.
I was also looking at this today... I believe on Monday it was at ~2B.
Glad im not the only one paying attention to this.
Aug 17 - Flow Trade
$DFS started showing up on the Flow on 8/15 (as posted). The price continued to drop on the 16th. More flow showed up on 16th. Hit $90 which is the line in the sand for it and bounced today (17th)
They lost the CEO this week. Generally negative banking sentiment right now.
It's a wild ride of a chart over the last 5 years. 90 is the line. It's either going to properly bounce from here or the bottom is going to come out quick.
I'm taking it for a ride tailing the flow though. I've got half position. I'll look to add other half on Monday (avoiding opex)
I have the October 15 95c @ 4.20. Yesterday was when to enter, but I just wasn't following market much. This is not earnings related, so I'm game. This actually looks like a baby gamma squeeze in motion for OpEx, which explains the move up today. Note the huge OI on the 93's for tomorrow after yesterday's trading. Let's see how it goes for a couple weeks.
I held COHR through earnings and got clipped on that one. So, I exited WOLF before the close/ER fortunately. It got killed, too, that night, so avoided nasty loss. There's a lot of companies missing earnings lately.
I'm not trading Flow for earnings going forward based on these last few - just too much noise and clearly gamblers, not useful Flow information. The good stuff, so far, has all been on-ER related.
"On CNBC’s "Options Action," Mike Khouw of Optimize Advisors said Target traded at 5x its average daily put volume on Tuesday and options markets are implying a move of around 7% post the release of quarterly earnings.
There was a buyer of 1,200 of the September 120-puts at an average price of $4.80 per contract, Khouw mentioned.
Trader sees Target’s stock falling at least 5% by September expiration.
The company to post quarterly earnings at $1.80 per share, up sharply from year-ago earnings of 39 cents per share. The company’s revenue came in at $24.77 billion, compared to $26.04 billion in the year-ago period.
Price Action: Target shares fell 2.6% to close at $125.05 on Tuesday, but added 6.6% in Wednesday's premarket trading session."
$TGT possible play here???
It seems like a bundle of 80m $ transactions at the same time, but you are saying this is not decisive because it's a mix of Bid and Ask? still a big chunk in a single time-frame. This is not a good indicator?
AUG 15 end of day flow - some noteworthy trades on $JNJ $WOLF $DFS
$WOLF - this was a particularly interesting one @ $720k premium, $5 OTM, for Friday, and 20 min before the close. WOLF has earnings after the close on Aug 16, so clearly an ER play. "
Wolfspeed Inc is involved in the manufacturing of wide bandgap semiconductors. It is focused on silicon carbide and gallium nitride (GaN) materials and devices for power and radio-frequency (RF) applications." -- I'll take a ride on that with a small position. Picked up 9/15 55c @ 4.85. This is a risky trade if you look back at historical - earnings are terrible for it most of the time. If I can swing 10-15% prior to the ER at the close, I'll take it.
$DFS - this chart is a train wreck, looks like trader is expecting a bounce of this $90 support that has been holding. I'll probably tail this one, too. I just didn't have enough time to move before the close. This trade was 3min until the bell. Options are reasonably priced on this one.
$JNJ - this one has gotten steady flow for several weeks now - earnings were great -- do they have a weight loss drug they sell or in pipeline? I haven't looked, but that's what the big pharma moves are on the back of lately.
What's your read on that? MSFT is such a high volume stock, hard to pick out any signals there. If you're looking for bullish signals, I'd filter down to calls+bought and OTM. Probably single-leg, too.
Aug 14 - mid-day Flow update
I am not seeing anything exciting in the flow. 4 alerts = very slow day. 🐌
That's a bit surprising considering the fact the QQQ is up 0.85% at the moment. That says to me this rally is running out of steam.
I'm really wanting to take a QQQ put position here....but NVDA is causing me to have trust issues. 💀
My $COHR position is on the move though +3.5% today. ER tomorrow after hours - https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172569601
Aug 11 - mid-day
There's very little hitting my filters today. It's a low volume, down day.
At the moment, I'm only looking for bullish trades. Tech is in progress on a pullback, but money is going into oil + commodities (has been for a while now), particularly on the back of the CPI + PPI data.
The only trade of interest today is TECK and NKLA.
TECK is a Canadian miner, so it's into commodities/resources. Not a bad trade, worth marking, but nothing I'm running into. NKLA is a total lotto ticket. It's swimming in bad news and still overvalued despite current price. They lost the CEO and are just now producing some trucks. The trader here has taken a very bullish bet for it to move over 50% by 9/15, paying $700k for that ticket. So if you just felt the itch, NKLA will scratch it today.
Some specific Flow lessons so far:
- Pay attention to size of trade vs option chain activity. A $250k option trade on NVDA is nowhere near as important as a $150k trade on a boring/low volume chain.
- It's a lot easier to sleep at night if you can come up with a reason to buy based on the Flow beyond just 'there was lots of volume' -- try to attach it to an upcoming event (earnings, announcement, FDA approval, etc). If not, you'll be smacked around by price action and shaken out easily.
- Single Leg has proven to be an important filter for me - because it (mostly) filters out trades that are hedge/multi-leg. You can get thrown off by a large new position taken, if you missed the opposing position that covers them in a tight range.
- If you're looking for bullish trades, be sure to set the filter of Bought - this will show you bullish calls only. Ones done at the bid aren't really bullish. Same logic for bearish trades.
- Don't boredom trade. Wait for the the perfect trade to come to you that meets all the criteria you like to trade. This casino is open 5 days a week, be patient.
- 0DTE's have so much volume, if you're not trading gamma squeezes, avoid the noise.
- Flow is a river of gold once you learn how to pan for it
Open Flow Positions (as of Aug 10)
$COHR - I've got an open position in the 9/15 50c right now. I'm underwater at the moment, but we'll see how it plays out. It's another otherwise boring stock that had a feeding frenzy on the 9/15 55c, 60c, 65c a few days ago when the stock is in the 45-50 range. Why? You can see it on the OI here now https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/coherent-COHR/options?expiry=20230915&strikes=10
Compare it to the 8/18s - https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/coherent-COHR/options?expiry=20230818&strikes=10 - way less OI there. There's earnings on 8/15, but you could have picked up the 8/18 if you were playing earnings....so I think something else is at play here.
$AMD - I'm in this one again on the back of continued NVDA bullish flow and sprinkles of AMD flow - and especially now that earnings are out of the way. I also think there's an announcement coming from CEO about additional AI chip improvements & manufacturing. She was recently in Taiwan meeting with the right people to put this in motion. I will be out ahead of NVDA earnings though (8/23) because I don't see how in the world NVDA can hit those numbers they guided on and this may put the top in for NASDAQ for now. I've got AMD 9/15 110c @ 6.50 - will be adding more, most likely.
$LVS - I'm in this one for the second or third time since that 56c trade that worked so well. I've got 9/15 60c currently. I don't really see a catalyst here except for China/Macau, so if I'm going to cut one loose soon, it's this one.
I've done more trades than I've posted, but I'll be adding more here and taking screenshots of the Flow tool and trades I'm seeing: https://ih.advfn.com/options/live-options-flow
More Flow trades (round 2)
$AA - I got punched on this one - unfortunate set of circumstances - brokers came in the night I bought and downgraded the hell out of it (massive downgrades by $20 adjustment in target!), then I violated a trading rule of mine to not hold through ER. Lost 40% on the trade.
$AMD - Bought on July 18, flow coming in hot on calls. Picked up 115c for 8/18 @ 5.25 Sold them July 19 for 8.00 on a news article mention that “Cloud providers are looking at AMD as replacement for NVDA chips” 🔥
I've traded AMD several times since - on the back of both AMD and NVDA flow being heavy on calls.
$LVS - on 7/21 it had some action on the 56c for 8/25 (still in play). It was $700k . It stood out because the volume was 4300 vs OI of 39. This played out very well the next day. Closed out for 40% or so profit.
$DUK - very boring stock, but a lot of calls on Aug 2 were getting snapped up going into its earnings. The strike of interest was 95c for 9/15. I went with the 90c for same date, seemed safer. The stock trended down, but then post-earnings went on a run - so the bullish volume got this one right (it's still going - albeit quite slowly, like a good utility stock does)
Some recent trades from Flow (round 1)
$RIVN - The flow was non-stop heading into weekend when TSLA was going to report their sales numbers. I sold for 50%, but they went on for 300%+
$WMB - similar, sold for 50%, went on for about 150%. I don't even know why this one went, but it had a lot of volume, so I grabbed it. It's an otherwise boring stock.
$DDOG - on a Friday, there was 3x volume vs OI for Aug 18 100c. The price of DDOG was 98 at the time. I didn't pull the trigger, but DDOG went to 115 shortly after that. Could have done options or equity easily on this one.
$BBIO - an unusual trade showed up on a Friday just before the close ($300k + OTM + 1 week out) when it was around $18. I had never heard of it, but the trade was strange enough, I went small since I had little time to research it. Right after the close on Friday, they announced that they had news to share on Monday. Stock popped 20% in afterhours. I had options, so couldn't do anything (probably would have sold if I could have...biotech data is dangerous to hold through). It opened on Monday to positive drug trial data and went on to 35. You already know what the options did. This has been my favorite Flow trade so far.
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