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He was a Man of Honor
Miss you Rick!
FYI Phrantic has passed away for those who knew him. Rick was a good friend RIP brother.
What do you think of the CEO's current effort to combine UXG with Minera Andes?
Any one have the link to the website that shows future calls and puts?? I saw it last week and it was showing a oncomming slayfest.
Like I wanna say #'s were either 10x or a hundred times more than NORMAL.
I've been slowly accumulating UXG. Speculative, but I like the CEO, formerly the CEO for GG, Goldcorp. Downside risk doesn't appear to be much of a factor at this point.
CME / the Gov crushed the metals trade. The gov has knocked long and short term yields. The only place for money to go is gonna be stocks. Get your calls on!
Forget my last question Sky, I found a good explanation on Investopedia. I appreciate your time.
So the settled contracts are those that have been purchased and show up as the "volume", and the unsettled contracts are the "open interest", meaning they are for sale? Sorry for being so naive. I tried reading up on that and it only created more questions than it answered.
You are looking at unsettled contracts vs the settled ones. If the settled contracts is very small and the Open interest that day balloons for no aparent reason ie. news. It could be that someone knows something ahead of an event.. Not always, but sometimes. Also, you can have a ton of Open interest and that number wont show in the settled as it was just actively traded that day.. If the numbers dont jump on the settled contracts someone could have just been trying to manipulate the stock price that day with options and flipped them out with no intention of staying.
Cheers
Thanks Sky. Now for a good laugh... would you mind explaining open interest as it relates to contracts? TIA
The Chart has been to strong for a large PUT position. If the stock breaks below the 10 day and MACD crosses down then it could get interesting. I am hearing some chatter that by MID week we are gonna see a sharp reversal upwards in the general market...
That was some nasty down volume on Friday with OPTR. Wait for the PSTAR drop as well.
FWIW
Watch the November 15 puts, 1009 contracts traded and open interest on Friday was 125. Lets see how much the open interest is tomorrow. Also look at the 17.50 November Calls, 1947 contracts traded and Open interest there was 4590.. Lets see where the open interest opens at on Monday.
FWIW also, I havent looked at any of the fundamental side of stuff, my analysis was just based on the technicals and the chart settings I have in my Elite.
Cheers
Check out OPTR for put options. A few facts: 15.87% of the float is short; float is only 45.36M; Sales & EPS are in the crapper Q/Q; Earnings out on October 31st, estimate is -$0.53. Friday's close was below key support on heavy volume. Note on the chart, every time price has reached the upper trendline it has resulted in rapid price decline. Support is at $14 and, if breached, it's likely price will toy with the 200MA around $12.00. My thinking is if price goes back to the trendline and bounces off, the game is on. Overall, the chart idicators/overlays are harmoniously turning bearish. Any thoughts?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OPTR
You got that right.
Those GLD puts are sure looking good now. Gold is done and now a mass exodus. Looks like folks were hoping for a QE 3 and didnt get it. With the dollar gaining strength people are seeking it out instead. Interesting world to say the least.
Cheers
Thanks for the heads up Sky. Looks like BCRX may be the best choice.
Been busy so sorry for the quick links but bird flu rising fast and unnoticed by main stream so the hysteria hasnt been drummed on yet.
bought various BCRX calls... hand over fist today
Updated: 6-Month Daily GLD:
Pattern: Bump & Run
Overall Interpretation: Bearish
Resistance: Dark Blue & Green
Support: Light Blue, Gold Trendline, & Orange (Gaps)
Target: $152 - $154
Entry Signals: Price deflection off blue resistance; 5MA cross below 10MA; +DI deflection off ADX and cross below -DI
Watch for stalls at gaps (play gaps and support on stalls); price/volume, StochRSI, CMF all demonstrate lack of market support for price. Again, I'd suggest 10% OTM call hedge in the event of bad news. First gap at 172.50 - 173.50 will offer minimal initial support.
Fades on index/sector ETF's to watch coming days/weeks:
$SPY: $122, $124, $126
$IWM: $72-$74, $76-$78
$XLF: $13.50-$14.50
$MDY: $157.50-$160, $162.50-$165
yup :) lets see what bernanke does to market today...
Are you still in now?
Great chart and great analysis! Stopped right at the 20 today before getting a haircut, but the options are speaking loudly. i like this play and have been in and out for the last couple weeks
Cheers
XLF 6-Month Daily:
Chart Pattern: Slope & Fall (as opposed to bump & run) (sarcasm)
Resistance: At Gaps
Support: Not Yet Existing
A noteable divergence exists between the StochRSI and volume denoting uncertainty in market sentiment, confirmed by ADX/-DI and CMF; all 3 gaps will offer resistance, the majority of which will be felt between 12.58 & 13.00 due to the wide sloppy base formed from August 5 through the 17th which is laden with emotion and uncertainty; 5MA suggests a waning in downward pressure as seen in its slight deviation from its prior angle.
Today's earthquake gave us a good peak under the market's skirt revealing a skittish, uncertain, emotionally-laced attitude. Play this one with caution, use the gaps as sell points if price stalls occur, then re-take position upon upward violation. I always recommend ignoring candle wicks (spikes) when interpreting charts as they can occur at any time during the trading day and usually represent only one trade, whereas the candle body more certainly expresses market majority. We need to see one more candle body to establish reliable support at 12.00. Again, very skittish market. Any bad news will wreak havoc. The anticipation of Jacksonhole appears to currently be the driving force, at least for the time being. Wouldn't hurt to place a short-term 10% OTM put hedge on this play.
I'll post an XLF chart a little later.
Touchy play, any bad news could send it north quick. Forgot to mention the gap at 174 will offer some support, too. I like your XLF call idea, been watching and waiting for that sector. Tech is starting to wake up, too. I like AXTI calls, picked a few up.
Nice Chart Phrantic, couldnt agree more.
Cheers
GLD 6-Month Daily
Chart Pattern: Bump & Run
Support: Green/Blue/Orange Trendline
Strategy: Ratcheted puts with hedged calls
Noteworthy is the acute divergence in the trendline from approximately 30 degrees to a radical 85 degree angle. Other noteable divergence is seen in the relationship between the StochRSI and volume (heavy volume/weak RSI) demonstrating market support for price is waning. This is confirmed both by the ADX/+DI and CMF. A conservative play would be puts with a 10% hedged call, selling the puts at support lines if price stalls occur, re-taking new put positions on violations of support. Hedged calls could be taken at stall points for insurance against bad news in the market.
Tweets coming through that gold margin is gonna be hiked again soon
As Chavez Pulls Venezuela's Gold From JP Morgan, Is The Great Scramble For Physical Starting?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2011 16:27 -0400
In addition to the nationalization of his gold insutry, Chavez earlier also announced that he would recover virtually all gold that Venezuela hold abroad, starting with 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England. As the WSJ reported earlier, "The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter. A spokesman from the Bank of England declined to comment whether Venezuela had any gold on deposit at the bank." That's great, but not really a gamechanger. After all the BOE should have said gold. What could well be a gamechanger is that according to an update from Bloomberg, Venezuela has gold with, you guessed it, JP Morgan, Barclays, and Bank Of Nova Scotia. As most know, JPM is one of the 5 vault banks. The fun begins if Chavez demands physical delivery of more than 10.6 tons of physical because as today's CME update of metal depository statistics, JPM only has 338,303 ounces of registered gold in storage. Or roughly 10.6 tons. A modest deposit of this size would cause some serious white hair at JPM as the bank scrambles to find the replacement gold, which has already been pledged about 100 times across the various paper markets. Keep an eye on gold in the illiquid after hour market. The overdue scramble for delivery may be about to begin.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chavez-pulls-venezuelas-gold-jp-morgan-great-scramble-physical-starting
Out of FXY puts at 100% gain.
THANKS very much !!! I must admit that I have had some trying moments lately !
YOU are right IDCC is a true gem and I really believe that whatever price is finally paid for it, the buyer or buyer's will not regret it.
Nice to see you have looked into it !
GOD BLESS both of you and your families,
John
May I congratulate once again!
CONVICTION
And to you (and phrantic if you are reading)
you see why IDCC keeps rising :) Need for patents and smartphone patent wars
Matter of time WLGC Wordlogic
http://www.streetinsider.com/Mergers+and+Acquisitions/InterDigital+(IDCC)+Ramps+Higher+As+New+Bidder+Enters+Into+the+Feverish+Bidding+War/6680743.html
Reuters) - InterDigital Inc (IDCC.O) said its board is evaluating strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the company or of its patents, a few weeks after a consortium of technology giants picked up Nortel Networks' patents for $4.5 billion.
InterDigital's shares rose 26 percent to $52.43 Tuesday on Nasdaq, raising its market value by half a billion dollars.
The company holds and licenses around 8,800 mostly telecommunications patents that range from basic wireless system designs and processes to increase network coverage, to saving battery life and the efficient use of bandwidth.
"Over the past year, we have seen the value of intellectual property rise substantially as major players in the mobile industry increasingly understand the strategic and economic value of this type of asset," Chairman Terry Clontz said
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-interdigital-strategicalternative-idUSTRE76I5VE20110719
Bought some SSO Aug 51 calls first thing this morning
It's a deal: Obama, Congress will avert default
Good news, but... what's up with Queen Pelosi??? I thought she liked to pass bills first, then read them later.
The House Democratic leader, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, was non-committal. "I look forward to reviewing the legislation with my caucus to see what level of support we can provide," she said in a written statement.
http://news.yahoo.com/deal-obama-congress-avert-default-012714959.html
FXY, prime for shorts or puts. Even the hint of an agreement on the US debt crisis will send it down. It's way overextended. Equities will fly, PMs will drop. Friday's trading disclosed short covering, IMO the expectation of an agreement being reached in congress over the weekend.
I picked up some FEED Feb 2012 2$ calls. Very undervalued here!
You are thinking silver is due for a correction obviously..........
Wise move IMO.
LRAD, a little more DD:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/LRAD/tab/8
PRESS RELEASES & FILINGS:
UH-60 Blackhawk Helicopter-Mounted LRAD 1000X(TM) Deployed by Colombian Air Force
Marketwire (Jul 14, 2011)
LRAD-RX(R) Being Installed at Pentagon Main Entrance
Marketwire (Jul 12, 2011)
LRAD Corporation to Report $2.3 Million in Fiscal Q3 2011 Revenues and Record Revenues of $20.0 Million for First Nine Months of FY 2011
Marketwire (Jul 11, 2011)
LRAD Corporation Receives New LRAD(R) Order for Waterfowl Control
Marketwire (Jun 30, 2011)
LRAD Corporation Announces Opening LRAD(R) Order From Israel's Ministry of Defense
Marketwire (Jun 29, 2011)
http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lrad
LRAD is a company to watch. IMO they're setting up as a major buyout candidate. I'm not too hot on cheap big board stocks, but look at the fundamentals on these guys. This company is growing by leaps and bounds.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=lrad&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Nice group. Add ASYS, KLIC, too.
May I make a tech Watchlist if trend continues:
SIMG
AXTI
SYNA
NUAN
MU
TER
NVTL
ONNN
Snapped up some ASYS calls. The NAS has been giving signals for a couple months now that tech will emerge strong. ASYS has put in its bottom and has lots of headroom with the fundamentals to back it up. 'Tis the season for tech.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=asys
sold some along the way for sons college and for good profits when they happened but still believe that IDCC will hit a home run that up to this point we have only dreamed about ...
GOOD LORD willing !
Love the Conviction and abilty to hold 16 years!
Thru the toughest markets (twice)
I Use to follow that along with syna at time
Great for you
Best
CJ
THANKS guys ... there are some that have been in from the very beginning ...
I enjoy both of your commentaries ... keep up the great job fellas and thank you both !
Nice call JS! That's what I call a long position! Congrats.
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