Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi OPEL Folks,
This board is closed for posting. Please use the new board page to talk about OPEL.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=21788
Warren
InvestorsHub
Just in case anyone here does not fully appreciate how the POET tech will fundamentally change several industries in the next little while - here is a summary of announced developments over the last year or so. It is a long read but I will summarize it in 3 words - 'Buy and Hold'.
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - Jan. 19, 2010) - ODIS, Inc., announced today that it recently received a $750,000 Award to develop "Monolithic Infra-Red Pixel Structures Enabled by Thyristor-HFET EO Logic". Infra-Red technologies currently require cryogenic cooling to operate and use independent readout integrated circuits. The ODIS technology has been developed to provide the new "state of the art" in integrated approaches to infrared imaging combined with transistor readout circuits.
Dr. Geoff Taylor, Chief Scientist, ODIS, Inc., states that by incorporating these technologies on the same epitaxial structure, the electro-optic operation should enable high sensitivity infra-red imaging in an uncooled environment with significantly improved operating speeds and off-chip communications.
"This breakthrough technology not only has the potential to produce tremendous cost savings for the U.S. Air Force and Space Missile Command," said Leon (Lee) Pierhal, President, ODIS, Inc. "We expect enhanced reliability and higher resolution for current and future satellite missions. In addition, the technology should be able to reduce the cost and improve performance for several commercial markets which become viable with this new capability".
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - April 22, 2010) - Following closely to the previous $750,000 Award in January 2010, ODIS Inc. announced today that it has received two additional AFRL Awards for $850,000, totaling $1.6M so far this year.
The first is a $100,000 Award to develop an "Ultra Low Power RAM", a novel memory cell using the ODIS's optoelectronic thyristor within its III-V Planar OptoElectric Technology ("POET"). Very high density and low storage power may be achieved with the cell represented as the cross-point of an array. The memory design will enable it to be fully compatible with integrated optoelectronic CHFET/thyristor logic and optical I/O. Fabricated in radiation hard gallium arsenide ("GaAs"), the structure enables both static and dynamic operation.
ODIS also announced the receipt of a $750,000 Award to develop "Optoelectronic Directional Couplers for Switching Fabric", switching fabric on a single chip is a device technology that is required to enable the coordination and routing of multiple optical input signals to arbitrary multiple output ports without optoelectronic conversation which is essential technology for optical communication switching hubs and routers. Targeted for future military satellite missions, just like the Phase I, it will greatly reduce power requirements and be designed radiation hard.
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - Sept. 9, 2010) - ODIS Inc. announced today that it has received a development contract with the Navy Air Warfare Center that will involve a Phase I Award of $150,000. After a period of research conducted by the Navy of ODIS and other competing technologies, the Navy has followed other military branches and chosen ODIS's POET platform as a preferred candidate to develop optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) technology for future avionics systems.
CDMA is widely used in the wireless industry for secure channel allocation to a broad user base. OCDMA has similar potential for the Fiber to the Home (FTTH) application based upon a reduced cost of the optoelectronic interface circuits. ODIS has been awarded a Phase I contract with NAVAIR to develop OCDMA integrated OE circuit approaches for Navy Avionics platforms. The high level of security offered by OCDMA will be deployed at multiple levels in the Department of Defense (DOD) optical avionics multi-core processor networks. The security levels are obtained with the robust encryption techniques afforded by Pseudo-random Noise sequencing in both the time and wavelength domains.
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - Jan. 19, 2011) - ODIS Inc. announced today that it has received a development contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ("NASA") that will involve a Phase I Award of $100,000. After a period of growing recognition and awards from other United States military branches, NASA has followed the Navy and the Air Force and chosen ODIS's POET platform as a preferred method to develop Optoelectronic infrastructure for RF/Optical phased arrays.
Next generation sensors in space require both optical sensing at 1.5µm and mmw sensing at 35GHz. Normally, separate emitting apertures are required for the optical and RF functions. ODIS will develop the Planar OptoElectronic Technology ("POET") to combine the RF and optical transmit beams for phased array sensors into a single monolithic circuit, with each circuit providing a pixel of the RF array. POET will also enable on-chip electronic control of both RF and optical beam steering angles. With the large number of such spacecraft sensors deployed in extended missions, a huge advantage is gained by the elimination of weight and power along with improvement in reliability.
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - March 2, 2011) - OPEL Solar International Inc. ("OPEL" or "the Company") (TSX VENTURE:OPL) announced today that it is in receipt of a third party valuation of intellectual property developed by its U.S. affiliates OPEL, Inc. and ODIS Inc. The Planar Opto Electronic Technology ("POET"), initially developed by Dr. Geoffrey Taylor at the University of Connecticut and licensed to OPEL, Inc., is a semiconductor fabrication technology that enables the dense packing of digital, analog, and optical circuits on a single gallium arsenide chip. The technology now makes it possible to monolithically integrate a wide number of electronic and optoelectronic functions in a single chip with higher speeds and reduced power consumption compared to Silicon CMOS. For the same functionality, the chip size would be considerably reduced to approximately the size of half a person's thumb nail.
OPEL commissioned a valuation analysis of the POET Technology portfolio ("POET Technology") by an independent, third party valuation firm, Pellegrino & Associates, LLC. The Pellegrino firm performed an analysis of the uses of the POET Technology, the sales it could achieve in its targeted end-markets and likely margins if OPEL can complete its research and development activities successfully and the market adopts the POET Technology. Using a number of valuation techniques and based on technical information provided to it by the Company, the valuation firm has estimated that the POET Technology portfolio could be worth as much as approximately $1 billion. This worth is derived from a range of values; the median value being $966.6 million, while the mean valuation was reported at $1.31 billion.
SHELTON, CONNECTICUT--(Marketwire - April 20, 2011) - OPEL Solar International Inc. ("OPEL" or "the Company") (TSX VENTURE:OPL) announced today that its U.S. affiliate company, OPEL Defense Integrated Systems ("ODIS") has demonstrated laser operation for the first time in a new integrated device as part of its Planar Optoelectronic Technology ("POET") process.
POET creates high-performance devices by fusing light and electronics together on a single chip. Specifically, POET is a semiconductor-manufacturing technology that enables the monolithic fabrication of integrated circuit ("IC") chips containing both electronic and optical elements. By offering components with dramatically lowered cost, together with increased speed, density, and reliability, POET could potentially allow ODIS to fundamentally alter the landscape for a broad range of applications, such as tablet computers and smartphones.
Based on a proprietary Group III-V materials structure, the pulsed vertical cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) operates at 980nm with a 12µm diameter vertical cavity surface and an output power of 1.7mW. In tandem with ODIS' previously-announced integrated detector - a heterostructure field effect transistor (HFET) device - the laser enables inter-circuit optical connections between electronic devices for on-chip applications.
"This has proven, for the first time, an end-to-end technology for on-chip integration of photonic circuits can manipulate light signals on the same semiconductor framework as electronic signals," noted Leon M. Pierhal, CEO of OPEL. "This technology has the potential to overcome the constraints of copper interconnects in silicon-based chips, and it further validates the years of development invested in ODIS, as reflected in the potential market applications for POET technology, as well as its overall importance to our stakeholders."
General Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that are common to all of our valuation models:
• It will take between 6 and 18 months for POET to pass through technical readiness level
(“TRL”), making POET then desirable for licensing transactions.
• All revenue models rely on technology licensing fees; thus, there is no cost of goods sold
• ODIS will incur cumulative nominal monthly expenses that current grant revenues
satisfy.
• The nominal discount rate for future cash flows is 32.04%
• The base target rate of return used for the discount rate determination is 23.98%.
• The success rate used for the discount rate determination is 25%.
• The holding period used for the discount rate determination would reflect an investment
of 22 years (i.e., ODIS is a strategic acquisition, not a financial acquisition).
• The nominal remaining economic life for the technology is 22 years.
• ODIS will incur a 40% nominal income tax rate.
• ODIS will incur a 5% royalty payment to UCONN for the technology licensing.
• ODIS will enjoy an average of 20 remaining years for statutory protection for POET
patent portfolio.
• A per-unit royalty would constitute 8.17% of the total value basis for the product.
• Once deployed, it will take 48 months for penetration of the market to the nominal ending
market share.
• Product adoption will occur along a Fisher-Pry market adoption curve with a market
shape of 0.2000
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense
market:
• ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research
(SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by
ODIS representatives
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors.
SCHEDULE “A”
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e.,
they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors
(i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
• A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense
contractor considers executing a license.
• The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range
between $20 million and $50 million
• Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to
account for any product-specific royalties.
Commercial Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the
commercial market:
• The first market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for server computers.
• The second market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for desktop computers.
• The third market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for laptop computers.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top general computer microprocessor
manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• In each target market, POET platform would nominally allow a manufacturer to capture
its current nominal market share deploying it.
• The server processor market would start at 6,939,877 annual units, growing at 0% per
year.
• Server processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Server processors average $828.89 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated
royalty payment.
• Each server would require two processors.
• The desktop processor market would start at 128,200,000 annual units, growing at 1.13%
per year.
• Desktop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Desktop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a
negotiated royalty payment.
• Each desktop would require one processor.
• The laptop processor market would start at 231,900,000 annual units, growing at 12.43%
per year.
• Laptop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Laptop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated
royalty payment.
• Each laptop would require one processor.
Smartphone Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the
smartphone market:
• The POET platform would nominally allow a smartphone microprocessor manufacturer
to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top smartphone microprocessor
manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• The desktop processor market would start at 188,100,000 annual units, growing at
10.00% in Year 1, 18.18% in Year 2, 15.38% in Year 3, 13.33% in Year 4, 11.28% in
Year 5, 9.23% in Year 6, 7.18% in Year 7, 5.13% in Year 8, 3.08% in Year 9, and 1.03%
in Year 10.
• Smartphone processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Smartphone value creation averages $78.96 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a
negotiated royalty payment.
• Each smartphone would require one processor.
Opel touts SUNRISE research project
2010-10-21 16:28 ET - News Release
Shares issued 83,888,001
OPL Close 2010-10-21 C$ 0.365
Mr. Leon Pierhal reports
OPEL SOLAR, INC., AND THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF CANADA CELEBRATE THE UNVEILING AND TESTING OF THE SUNRISE SOLAR PROJECT INSTALLATION
Opel Solar Inc. and the National Research Council of Canada, has completed the unveiling and testing of the SUNRISE (Semiconductors Using Nanostructures for Record Increased in Solar cell Efficiency) research project installation at the Institute for Research in Construction's Flexhouse in Ottawa, Ont.
Financed by the Development Bank of Canada (BDC) and the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the unveiling and testing of the SUNRISE project represent the culmination of three years of research into utilizing nanostructures to establish a higher level of energy efficiency and output from a concentrated photovoltaic installation. The SUNRISE project is a collaborative research project between Opel, the National Research Council of Canada, the University of Ottawa's Centre for Research and the University of Sherbrooke. The SUNRISE project was focused on developing new, ultra-high-efficient solar cells in combination with high efficiency OPEL Solar concentrator design. When paired with OPEL's state-of-the-art dual-axis tracker, the newly developed panels are very cost-effective and are expected to validate target efficiencies for both cells and the system.
"The company is very excited to see the culmination of three years of research and development by some of the best minds in solar technology with the unveiling of the SUNRISE project," stated Leon Pierhal, president and chief executive officer of OPEL. "This project represents another example of OPEL Solar's industry-leading solar technology development at work."
The SUNRISE project was unveiled and energized this afternoon, at a special ceremony hosted by Gary Goodyear, Minister of State (science and technology) and John McDougall, president of the National Research Council of Canada at the National Research Council of Canada Institute for Research facilities in Ottawa, Ont.
We seek Safe Harbor.
ODIS, Inc. - Business Overview
A coming major force in the $515 Billion Military (FY2009 Dept. of Defense Budget) and $300+ Billion
by 2010 (reported by Business Wire Inc.) Commercial Semiconductor Industries is Optoelectronics which
meets the market need for high volume, rapidly growing optoelectronics, wireless and sensor market
segments which demand greater bandwidth, increase processing power and integration, with lower power
dissipation while being cost effective. These markets are established, but are at a threshold where a new
technology or technical dislocation is needed. Lower-priced implementations will permit these markets to
achieve their potential volumes along with additional applications being addressed.
Products for these emerging markets are not served by silicon components, owing to the physical limitations of silicon.
Solutions currently are based on high-cost hybrid manufacturing technology using Silicon Germanium
(SiGe), Gallium Arsenide (GaAs), or Indium Phosphide (InP) technologies: a new solution is needed.
ODIS Inc., with its R&D facilities located on the campus of the University of Connecticut, has developed
and proven a new semiconductor process based on a new Group III-V materials system. This process,
POET (Planar OptoElectronic Technology), is uniquely capable of producing monolithic IC solutions to
meet the emerging needs of these emerging markets. POET allows ODIS to produce ICs with dense
packing of active optical elements together with packing of high-performance electronic elements at a
density similar to that of silicon. These monolithic implementations have a large advantage over today’s
hybrid-based solutions in density, reliability, and power dissipation, at a cost much lower than the best
available competitors. ODIS will produce a market dislocation by providing monolithic IC components
for these high volume high-performance markets with high-reliability, smaller, lower-power components
at disruptively lower prices.
POET is differentiated from competing semiconductor processes, silicon, gallium arsenide, or indium
phosphide by its more comprehensive set of elemental capabilities, and its ability to integrate them. POET
can integrate lasers, modulators, photoreceivers, passive optics and high-speed, low-power electronics in
monolithically-fabricated die: no other existing process can do so. This gives ODIS ICs their much lower
cost structure, power savings and increased reliability.
Patent and trade secret protection on POET, plus ODIS’s specific design knowledge using POET
elements give ODIS a large, defensible barrier to competition.
Market Conditions & Drivers
Progress in the electronics industry over the past four decades has both driven and been driven by our
ability to create and serve markets with faster, cheaper, and smaller monolithic integrated circuits. Each
product advance in turn becomes the driver for the next wave of IC technology. Many new generations of
IC technology from the earliest small-scale bipolar devices with 4 transistors through 0.09-micron feature
size CMOS circuits with nearly 1-billion gate density have continually increased the ICs capabilities and
thus those of the products in which they serve. Advances in PCs, communications, and many consumer
devices have been powered by this continual development in semiconductor technology.
Today however, this paradigm is falling short. Particularly in the arenas of optoelectronics and very highspeed
mixed-signal circuits silicon ICs will not serve, and no good monolithic (single-chip) technology
exists. Today’s implementations in these markets are not benefiting from the cost savings of integrated
Page 2 of 3
technologies, but rather are based on hybrid or multi-component approaches. In the hybrid approach
multiple individual semiconductor components of multiple technologies are interconnected to form
circuits satisfying the needs of a particular application. This approach is used successfully to bring
solutions to limited-size markets, particularly those in which performance is at a premium, but at a higher
price. However, as the need for high-speed services spreads, and higher-volume markets emerge, this
hybrid approach to implementation cannot produce competitive solutions. While hybrid technology will
serve for limited-size markets, those able to tolerate higher price tags, it cannot serve truly large,
competitive markets. A dislocation in technology is needed.
Today’s semiconductor industry is typically seen as being dominated by silicon products, with the silicon
IC industry then being divided into the PC/memory segment and the fabless IC segment. The fabless
business segment is then split into a triad of separate industries providing: design tools, IC designs, and
IC fabrication, all operating independently but synergistically. While this is a good description of the
silicon portion of the semiconductor industry, it is not a model of the whole semiconductor industry. Left
unaddressed is a multi-billion dollar cost-sensitive market for analog, mixed-signal, RF, and optical
products that is currently served by a combination of non-silicon technologies: Si-Ge (silicongermainum),
GaAs (Gallium Arsenide), InP (Indium Phosphide), and GaN (Gallium Nitride).
ODIS Technology
ODIS’s new and patented semiconductor fabrication process, POET is based on a unique Group III-V
materials structure. The heart of POET is a unique and patented Group III-V materials system that
supports monolithic fabrication of ICs containing active and passive optical elements, together with highperformance
analog and digital elements. For the first time an economical integration of many optical
devices together with dense, high-speed analog and high-speed, low-power digital elements are possible
in monolithic ICs.
The processing of these wafers into products is done using a series of steps similar to those used in silicon
processing, and is scalable to deep submicron feature sizes. POET device yield will thus be similar to that
of silicon, much higher than that characteristic of many current III-V processes. This gives ODIS a
technology basis that is uniquely powerful, that is economical to produce, and that is extensible in
generations. POET is a uniquely-powerful mixed-signal process, integrating high-performance analog and
digital electronics with high-performance active optical elements. ODIS ICs integrate a dense mix of
active optical elements and optical waveguides together with logic and mixed-signal elements on a single
chip, thus manufactured in one serial process. Capitalizing on POET capabilities, ODIS offers product
solutions into the communications, optoelectronic, RF/wireless, sensor, and imaging markets.
POET allows ODIS to fundamentally alter the landscape for a broad range of applications by offering
components with dramatically lowered cost together with increased speed, density, and reliability.
Addressable Target Markets
Military
POET’s technology platform for optoelectronic integration exploits the optoelectronic and electronic
behaviors of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) semiconductor material. One of the benefits of this material, from
a space electronics perspective, is that GaAs is significantly less susceptible to x-ray and gamma-ray total
integrated dose (TID) radiation. GaAs is the long-standing choice for high-frequency (e.g. RF) devices
and circuits, although, GaAs digital devices do not provide the performance that Metal Oxide
Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor, (MOSFET) devices provide.
Page 3 of 3
Important to military applications are the electronic devices that can be integrated into the POET
architecture including both complementary heterostructure field effect transistors and complementary
heterojunction bipolar transistors. These transistors enable both analog and digital functions in POET
hybrid optoelectronic devices. Important to the military is ODIS’s ability to integrate digital, RF, and
optical technologies in a single device makes POET an important, high-performance capability that
satisfies documented needs for multiple space systems and all Military Departments and Agency Tech
Areas.
Commercial
Progress in the commercial electronics industry over the past four decades has both driven and been
driven by our ability to create and serve markets with faster, cheaper, and smaller monolithic integrated
circuits. Each product advance in turn becomes the driver for the next wave of IC technology. Many new
generations of IC technology from the earliest small-scale bipolar devices with 4 transistors through 0.09-
micron feature size CMOS circuits with nearly 1-billion gate density have continually increased the ICs
capabilities and thus those of the products in which they serve. Advances in PCs, communications, and
many consumer devices have been powered by this continual development in semiconductor technology.
Today however, this paradigm is falling short. Particularly in the arenas of optoelectronics and very highspeed
mixed-signal circuits silicon ICs will not serve, and no good monolithic technology exists. A recent
Electronic News Article stated that the optoelectronics market is forecast to surpass the discrete
semiconductor market and become the second largest segment in the semiconductor industry behind
integrated circuits, according to a report published by industry researcher IC Insights.
Hi Steve,
Thanks for starting the thread as I didn't think about doing it myself.
I agree wholeheartedly with your view. I have been watching it since the first spike up.
Cheers!
Leon M. Pierhal, Chief Executive Officer of OPEL, elaborates;
“We are extremely proud and excited about the work we are doing on the POET Technology. We control a revolutionary technology that we think can fundamentally alter the landscape of the server, smart-device and computing industries. Never before has one chip been able to integrate both electronic and optical circuits. By combining them in one part, we believe we can eliminate the inefficiency and cost burden on systems that must use separate chips for each function. These cost savings and performance improvements can be immense, potentially transforming the whole industry.”
If they can accomplish this... they will be used in every single device such as laptops, computers, servers, smartphones, and ipods moving forward. That would mean billions and billions of value. That makes it a hundred dollar stock.
• The server processor market would start at 6,939,877 annual units. Server processors average $828.89 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment. Each server would require two processors.
• The desktop processor market would start at 128,200,000 annual units. Desktop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated royalty payment. Each desktop would require one processor.
• The laptop processor market would start at 231,900,000 annual units. Laptop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated
royalty payment. Each laptop would require one processor.
...
"That something" was the evaluation of their POET Technology on + 1 billion = 12$/SH, no debt, new contracts in Q1, possible takeover candidate, hype...
Because there was no message board of OPL I wanted to start one and I've posted some articles about them, so yes they may be "old", but it was merely as DD intended...
This stock will again, watch it...
That's old news.
Something caused their stock to jump 44% yesterday.
New highs were made.
They reported their full year results and this analysis was included.
http://www.opelinc.com/documents/management_discussion_and_analysis/MDA-31Dec2010.pdf
OPEL International Inc.
NEWS RELEASE
OPEL Announces Third Party Valuation of its POET Technology
? Third Party Valuation of POET Technology over $1 Billion
Shelton, Ct. March 2, 2011 – OPEL Solar International Inc. (“OPEL” or “the Company”) announced today
that it is in receipt of a third party valuation of intellectual property developed by its U.S. affiliates OPEL, Inc.
and ODIS Inc. The Planar Opto Electronic Technology (“POET”), initially developed by Dr. Geoffrey Taylor
at the University of Connecticut and licensed to OPEL, Inc., is a semiconductor fabrication technology that
enables the dense packing of digital, analog, and optical circuits on a single gallium arsenide chip. The
technology now makes it possible to monolithically integrate a wide number of electronic and optoelectronic
functions in a single chip with higher speeds and reduced power consumption compared to Silicon CMOS. For
the same functionality, the chip size would be considerably reduced to approximately the size of half a person’s
thumb nail.
OPEL commissioned a valuation analysis of the POET Technology portfolio (“POET Technology”) by an
independent, third party valuation firm, Pellegrino & Associates, LLC. The Pellegrino firm performed an
analysis of the uses of the POET Technology, the sales it could achieve in its targeted end-markets and likely
margins if OPEL can complete its research and development activities successfully and the market adopts the
POET Technology. Using a number of valuation techniques and based on technical information provided to it
by the Company, the valuation firm has estimated that the POET Technology portfolio could be worth as much
as approximately $1 billion. This worth is derived from a range of values; the median value being $966.6
million, while the mean valuation was reported at $1.31 billion.
Using the income approach to value, Pellegrino & Associates, LLC built a valuation model to determine the
economic income that might be possible from the potential exploitation of the POET Technology in several
prospective markets. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC used market data, revenue projections, investment data, and
cost data as from various sources, including from ODIS representatives, to determine the economic income
attributable solely to the POET Technology. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC then integrated the information into
a valuation model, accounting for the economic life of the POET Technology. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC
performed a royalty rate analysis to determine what the market may bear as a reasonable royalty rate for the
exclusive use of the POET Technology. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC developed a risk-adjusted discount rate
to discount forecast future free cash flows to determine a nominal value indication as of the appraisal’s
effective date.
To account for the uncertainty inherent in the valuation process, Pellegrino & Associates, LLC captured the
complex model interactions in the face of uncertain estimating assumptions using Monte Carlo simulation
techniques. This did not constrain the valuation model to any single value predictions of key values such as
royalty rates or costs. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC programmed the valuation model to recalculate repeatedly
to create a distribution of outcomes that Pellegrino & Associates, LLC analyzed. Pellegrino & Associates, LLC
used the range of values calculated by the model to come to a final determination. In complex situations that
involve uncertainty, this methodology helps to generate meaningful estimates that would otherwise be
impossible to model using discrete methods such as best-, expected-, and worst-case modeling. Pellegrino &
Associates, LLC used the median value from this simulation process as the fair market value for the POET
Technology. The Company will post a copy of a redacted version of the valuation on its website at
www.opelinc.com, as well as on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, concurrent with the dissemination of this
press release. Disclosure of certain information in the valuation would be seriously prejudicial to the
OPEL Solar International Inc.
Head Office: Operations Office:
Suite 501, 121 Richmond Street West 3 Corporate Drive, Suite 204
Toronto, ON, M5H 2K1 Shelton, CT 06484
Phone: (416) 368-9411 Phone: (203) 612-2366
Fax: (416) 861-0749 Fax: (203) 944-0800
OPEL Solar International Inc. – News Release of March 2, 2011 Page 2
interests of the Company and its shareholders, or would violate confidentiality provisions with third
parties, and has been omitted or marked to be unreadable. The redactions have been done by the Company
and Pellegrino & Associates, LLC. The omitted information is that information necessary to protect
important proprietary and technical information of the Company and third parties, including Pellegrino &
Associates, LLC, and to protect against competitor infringement. Canadian Securities Administrators
National Instrument 52-103 provides that a reporting issuer that discloses material forward-looking
material information must include disclosure that states the material factors or assumptions used to
develop forward-looking information. As a consequence of the redactions, Pellegrino & Associates, LLC
has provided a detailed memorandum which sets out the key assumptions they used in the construction of
their valuation models. The memorandum is attached as a schedule to this press release and should be read
in conjunction with the redacted valuation which contains important information concerning the
methodology of the valuation and the credentials of Pellegrino & Associates, LLC.
It is important to note that a third party valuation is not an indication of interest by any party, nor does it
represent an actual offer to purchase the POET intellectual property. As indicated in the report, the POET
Technology is still under development, and no assurances can be given that such development will be
successfully completed, that the technology will be brought to commercial realization or that the Company’s
target markets will adopt this technology. Commercial applications of the technology will likely not be
available for several years, if ever.
The fair market value estimate in the appraisal report does not necessarily reflect the actual price that OPEL
could realize from a true sale of its technology in a real market. Rather, the valuation reflects the notional
value of the technology in an assumed market. This assumed market considers, among other things, the
historic and prospective value of the technology in light of the associated business risk. The notional value
does not include possible synergistic benefits or economies of scale that might accrue to the potential purchaser
not already captured in the report. The notional value was also derived utilizing various assumptions and
estimates relating to growth, establishing new markets, expansion into new markets and related plans other than
statements of historical fact, which are forward-looking statements subject to a number of uncertainties that
could cause actual value to differ materially from the third party valuation. Pellegrino & Associates makes no
representations or assurances as to the Company's plans or ability to effect any planned and/or proposed
actions. Furthermore, Pellegrino & Associates derived its valuation based on certain technical information
provided by the Company and related sources believed by the valuation firm to be reliable, but the valuation
firm did not undertake an independent verification of the accuracy and completeness of this information, and
no representation, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Pellegrino &
Associates is not an investment advisor, and its report is not investment advice.
In the real market, the technology could generate as many prices as there are buyers in the market, with each
buyer having the ability to pay its own specific price based on its own specific set of circumstances. In the end,
the final price will be the result of a set of negotiations between buyers and sellers that the valuation firm could
not ascertain or forecast for the purpose of its engagement. However, Pellegrino & Associates did test its value
conclusions to ensure that there was a reasonable economic basis for its value opinion.
Pellegrino & Associates prepared its report in accordance with the Uniform Standards of Professional
Appraisal Practice (“USPAP”) adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal Foundation, and the
Principles of Appraisal Practice and Code of Ethics of the American Society of Appraisers. OPEL paid
Pellegrino & Associates a flat fee for its analysis that was in no way contingent on achieving any
predetermined value conclusion. Further, Pellegrino & Associates has no current or contingent interest in
OPEL and has no duty to update its analysis to account for subsequent events.
The Board of Directors of OPEL engaged Pellegrino & Associate in order to assess the potential for the POET
Technology and is considering alternatives to realize the full value of the POET Technology. On February 28,
2011, the Board of Directors passed all of the necessary resolutions to authorize the sale of the POET
OPEL Solar International Inc. – News Release of March 2, 2011 Page 3
intellectual property portfolio. Currently, the Board of Directors is evaluating proposals from investment
banking firms specializing in this technology regarding an engagement to consider strategic alternatives for
OPEL’s future exploitation of the POET Technology, which may include the full or partial sale of the
technology.
OPEL will host a conference call to discuss the valuation, strategic alternatives and the POET Technology.
The call will occur on Friday, March 4, at 11:00 AM Eastern Standard Time. Interested parties can participate
by calling 1-888-510-1765, which is toll free in Canada and the U.S. (Other International callers can dial 1-
719-457-2624, which is not toll free.) The call will also be webcast, and can be accessed at
http://viavid.net/dce.aspx?sid=00008205. A replay of the call will be available on the OPEL website, in the
Investor Relations section, for one year after the call.
Leon M. Pierhal, Chief Executive Officer of OPEL, elaborates, “We are extremely proud and excited about the
work we are doing on the POET Technology. We control a revolutionary technology that we think can
fundamentally alter the landscape of the server, smart-device and computing industries. Never before has one
chip been able to integrate both electronic and optical circuits. By combining them in one part, we believe we
can eliminate the inefficiency and cost burden on systems that must use separate chips for each function. These
cost savings and performance improvements can be immense, potentially transforming the whole industry.”
Background on POET Technology
Known as the Planar Opto Electronic Technology (“POET”), POET fulfills a long-held objective of the
semiconductor industry, bypassing many of the physical limits of existing semiconductor technologies. Key
benefits of the POET platform include faster semiconductor operating frequencies-- up to 100GHz-- lower heat
losses, greater reliability, and total system cost. All components of the technology have been validated by third
parties, and the Company expects to have a fully integrated, operational chip within months. The technology is
protected by numerous U.S. and international patents issued and pending.
ODIS personnel are working with leading defense systems integrator companies and with military and
government agencies to develop important applications for the technology. With partners, ODIS is developing
infrared arrays for imaging, optoelectronic switches, compact ultra-low power memory, optical CDMA
communications chips, and radio frequency detection arrays. The Company believes that POET has numerous
applications in computing and communications technologies, and it will fundamentally alter the landscape of
those industries with heretofore unattainable functionality and price/performance.
###
About OPEL Solar International Inc., OPEL, Inc. and ODIS Inc.
With operations headquartered in Shelton, CT and the head office in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, the Company,
through OPEL, Inc., designs, manufactures and markets high performance concentrating photovoltaic
(“HCPV”) panels to transform solar energy into electricity for worldwide application. OPEL’s high
performance photovoltaic concentrating panels generate up to 40% more kilowatt-hours than conventional flat
plate silicon solar panels, resulting in more cost effective electricity generated from the sun. OPEL also
markets a complete line of dual and single axis solar trackers to mount either HCPV or flat solar panels for the
optimum power output. The Company, through ODIS Inc., a U.S. company, designs infrared sensor type
products for military, consumer, industrial and commercial applications. ODIS continues to develop gallium
arsenide-based processes and semiconductor microchip products having several potential major market
applications: infrared sensor arrays for Homeland Security monitoring and imaging along with the unique
combination of optical lasers, and electronic control circuits on the same microchip for potential applications in
various military programs and potentially telecom for, Fiber to The Home.
A leader in gallium arsenide and solar concentrating photovoltaic technology, the Company has been awarded
33 patents and has 17 more patents pending, including those related to POET. OPEL’s common shares trade on
OPEL Solar International Inc. – News Release of March 2, 2011 Page 4
the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol “OPL”. For more information about OPEL, please visit the
Company’s website at www.opelinc.com.
Dated: March 2, 2011
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Michel Lafrance, Secretary
For further information:
OPEL ICR - Investor Relations ICR – Public Relations
Pat V. Agudow Gary Dvorchak, CFA James McCusker
Vice President, Public Relations Senior Vice President Vice President
Tel: +1 (203) 612-2366 x2612 Tel: +1 (310) 954-1123 Tel: +1 (203) 682-8245
p.agudow@opelinc.com gary.dvorchak@icrinc.com james.mccusker@icrinc.com
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the
TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
This news release contains "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable Canadian
securities laws) and "forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995). Such statements or information are identified with words such as "anticipate", "believe",
"expect", "plan", "intend", "potential", "estimate", "propose", "project", "outlook", "foresee" or similar words
suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Such statements include, among others, those
concerning OPEL’s anticipated operational plans and activities including the revenue and growth outlook.
Such forward-looking information or statements are based on a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions
which may cause actual results or other expectations to differ materially from those anticipated and which may
prove to be incorrect.
The valuation report prepared by Pellegrino & Associates, LLC is subject to certain contingent and limiting
conditions, including the following:
? Valuations are based on future earnings potential that may or may not materialize. Therefore, the
actual results achieved during the projection period will likely vary from the projections utilized in this
valuation, and the variations may be material; and
? Some assumptions invariably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may
occur. Therefore, the actual performance in any areas forecasted will vary from what was forecasted, and the
variations may be material.
Although OPEL believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking information or statements are
reasonable, prospective investors in OPEL's securities should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements because OPEL can provide no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Forwardlooking
information and statements contained in this news release are as of the date of this news release and
OPEL assumes no obligation to update or revise this forward-looking information and statements except as
required by law. Canadian continuous disclosure requirements provide that a reporting issuer must discuss in
its MD&A events and circumstances that occurred during the period to which the MD&A relates that are
reasonably likely to cause actual results to differ materially from material forward-looking information for a
period that is not yet complete that the reporting issuer previously disclosed to the public and the expected
differences. However, the reporting issuer may disclose such information in a press release(s)before the filing
of such MD&A if the MD&A appropriately identifies such news release(s).
# 1809628
Technology Appraisal Services
www.pellegrinoandassociates.com Indianapolis
10333 North Meridian Street, Suite 150 • Indianapolis, IN 46290
317.566.8199 • 317.569.7144 fax
February 25, 2011
Mr. Lee Pierhal
ODIS, Inc.
Three Corporate Drive, Suite 204
Shelton, CT 06484
Dear Mr. Pierhal:
In accordance with your request, the following are the key assumptions that we used in the
construction of our valuation models.
General Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that are common to all of our valuation models:
• It will take between 6 and 18 months for POET to pass through technical readiness level
(“TRL”), making POET then desirable for licensing transactions.
• All revenue models rely on technology licensing fees; thus, there is no cost of goods sold
• ODIS will incur cumulative nominal monthly expenses that current grant revenues
satisfy.
• The nominal discount rate for future cash flows is 32.04%
• The base target rate of return used for the discount rate determination is 23.98%.
• The success rate used for the discount rate determination is 25%.
• The holding period used for the discount rate determination would reflect an investment
of 22 years (i.e., ODIS is a strategic acquisition, not a financial acquisition).
• The nominal remaining economic life for the technology is 22 years.
• ODIS will incur a 40% nominal income tax rate.
• ODIS will incur a 5% royalty payment to UCONN for the technology licensing.
• ODIS will enjoy an average of 20 remaining years for statutory protection for POET
patent portfolio.
• A per-unit royalty would constitute 8.17% of the total value basis for the product.
• Once deployed, it will take 48 months for penetration of the market to the nominal ending
market share.
• Product adoption will occur along a Fisher-Pry market adoption curve with a market
shape of 0.2000
Defense Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the defense
market:
• ODIS will continue to receive annual revenues from Small Business Innovation Research
(SBIR) grants and other awards, in accordance with a projected schedule provided by
ODIS representatives
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top ten defense contractors.
SCHEDULE “A”
Page 2 of 3
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is an equally probable binary outcome (i.e.,
they will either license it or not, each occurrence having equal probability).
• Each defense contractor’s licensing decision is independent of other defense contractors
(i.e., we modeled no conditional licensing probabilities).
• A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense
contractor considers executing a license.
• The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range
between $20 million and $50 million
• Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to
account for any product-specific royalties.
Commercial Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the
commercial market:
• The first market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for server computers.
• The second market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for desktop computers.
• The third market application for POET in the commercial market would be for generalpurpose
microprocessors for laptop computers.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top general computer microprocessor
manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• In each target market, POET platform would nominally allow a manufacturer to capture
its current nominal market share deploying it.
• The server processor market would start at 6,939,877 annual units, growing at 0% per
year.
• Server processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Server processors average $828.89 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated
royalty payment.
• Each server would require two processors.
• The desktop processor market would start at 128,200,000 annual units, growing at 1.13%
per year.
• Desktop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Desktop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a
negotiated royalty payment.
• Each desktop would require one processor.
• The laptop processor market would start at 231,900,000 annual units, growing at 12.43%
per year.
• Laptop processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Laptop processors average $93.22 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a negotiated
royalty payment.
• Each laptop would require one processor.
Page 3 of 3
Smartphone Market Key Valuation Assumptions
The following are key assumptions that we integrated into the valuation model for the
smartphone market:
• The POET platform would nominally allow a smartphone microprocessor manufacturer
to capture its current nominal market share deploying it.
• ODIS will likely license POET to one or all of the top smartphone microprocessor
manufacturers on an exclusive basis.
• The desktop processor market would start at 188,100,000 annual units, growing at
10.00% in Year 1, 18.18% in Year 2, 15.38% in Year 3, 13.33% in Year 4, 11.28% in
Year 5, 9.23% in Year 6, 7.18% in Year 7, 5.13% in Year 8, 3.08% in Year 9, and 1.03%
in Year 10.
• Smartphone processors would enter the market 48 months from the effective date of the
valuation.
• Smartphone value creation averages $78.96 per unit, which would serve as a basis for a
negotiated royalty payment.
• Each smartphone would require one processor.
Should you have any questions regarding this memorandum, please feel welcome to contact me.
Very truly yours,
Mike Pellegrino
President
Pellegrino & Associates, LLC
Followers
|
0
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
16
|
Created
|
04/12/11
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |