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Pipeline to BC----to open soon--- the end of gas rationing in 3 days
Same as last year---so as not to give the stuff away
First Oil: Saudi Aramco Scaling Back Production
MT NEWSWIRES 1:30 PM ET 04/22/2020
02:30 PM EDT, 04/22/2020 (MT Newswires) -- According to sources cited by Energy Intelligence, Saudi Aramco has started to scale back production from its maximum capacity (12mln BPD) in preparation for lowering its output to 8.5mln BPD in May
(First Oil reports are produced by MT Newswires' global team of oil reporters. This story is also disseminated in real time to energy industry professionals via the First Oil Chat service on the ICE Instant Message application.)
MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
When Trump wins next month, how will oil be affected?
He is so unpredictable.
Especially since he might have a war to fund soon
no way. cannot afford too..
I wonder if Chavez really will cut at least some supplies this time
Oil Drilling Expertise Fashioned in Alberta Translates to Hard-won Acceptance in Tennessee
John Hurst
Since the turn of the 20th century, the green hills of Tennessee have largely remained a patchwork of small, undisturbed private land holdings. Consequently, any oil exploration of note has been done by family businesses and small to intermediate oil and gas companies, while Big Oil has largely passed the Appalachians by for larger, easier pickings in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, and California.
Besides not having to deal with so many small landowners, amassing large land packages was a motivator for looking elsewhere in the early years of US oil exploration. More often, according to sources like the US Geological Survey, it was the technical nature of finding oil in the Appalachians.
Montello Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:MEO) is one of only a handful of oil & gas companies to commence a multi-million dollar oil and gas exploration program in the technically challenging Appalachians Mountains and Foothills. The upstart company from Calgary, Alberta, recently won over government approval besides local resident support to earn a shot at re-drilling two of the most exciting oil prospects that the State of Tennessee has seen in decades. Montello is undaunted by the prospect of being one of the few companies to drill far deeper than most would contemplate in this under-developed but emerging oil & gas state.
Bill Cawker, who heads Montello, rightly echoes country comedienne Minnie Pearl: “We’re just so proud to be here,” he says, “because the advice, experience, smart field savvy, overall execution and technical expertise of our Alberta professionals goes such a long way here.”
“Everyone we work with says, “You have such a professional well site! It’s amazing that you are a little company from Calgary. Anyone coming here would think this is run by Conoco, Phillips or Shell, not a small Canadian company like yourselves.”
Cawker says he believes that if Montello had not posted photographs of its well site on the company’s website, some people might not believe the progress they’ve made. Montello has chiseled a well site 250 feet by 250 feet by some 30 to 40 feet deep out of the rock.
“This is the type of project normally tackled by a company much, much bigger than ours, so we come by the upstart or underdog tag honestly here. We like proving ourselves and relish the fact that we are showing up all the naysayers to date.”
Montello’s drill site is situated at the heart of a scenic farming region that offers few discernable clues as to the potentially prolific oil reserves that are believed to exist completely untapped thousands of feet below Morgan County’s lush green pastures. Hence, the State of Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation, Division of Geology, Oil and Gas Program, has officials monitor Montello’s work, closely and constantly. Cawker says Montello welcomes the assistance of top flight geologists from the state while drilling the John Bowen #2 Well.
A drill permit application on the Morgan Highpoint Project #1 well (officially known as the John Bowen #2 Well) was granted by the Department of Environment and Conservation, in July. Construction of the well site was completed to the satisfaction of the Department and its oil and gas inspector walked the site and presented a hard copy of the approved Drill Permit in person on Monday, July 23.
Montello and its joint venture partners are drilling on the property, 164 acres that adjoin the Howard family farm property near the community of High Point in rural north-central Tennessee, one hour and 40 minutes drive north of Knoxville. The drill location is a mile from the site of Pryor Oil’s Howard White #1 well – the original name of an over-pressurized gusher that came to be known as “the Blowout Well.” The oil released from the well was a light crude oil (38.1 API) with low to medium viscosity. It flowed at up to 750 barrels per hour, acccording to the well’s operator. But the subsequent blow-out caused a fire and a minor oil spill that essentially put the operator out of business.
The well has languished in a legal limbo ever since.
However, a nearby well named the John Bowen #1 Well (originally called the TexFlora well) also struck pay-dirt of up to 800 bpd in November 2003, but encountered problems of an entirely different nature and entirely unrelated to the well’s potential for commercialization: After the well was shut-in during the fall of 2003, owner Jerry Walsack took a Thanksgiving vacation at his home in Florida. While there, he died unexpectedly and as a result the John Bowen #1 was never put into production.
Now it’s Montello’s turn to tap into Morgan County’s previously elusive oil reserves. And this plucky junior is no stranger to major challenges and high stakes rolls of the dice, as recently appointed company president, Bill Cawker, is keen to point out.
“Montello has been around just about forever,” he says. “In 20 to 25 years the company has gone through three or four incarnations, with at least three different management groups doing mineral exploration, such as diamonds in North Alberta, shallow oil and gas, and so on.”
The current 2007 drilling programs in Tennessee and Pincher Creek, Alberta could be the company’s elusive ticket to the next level. Judging from the demonstrated oil and gas structures that caused the Howard White #1 blowout, John Bowen #2 has the potential to provide major shareholder growth.
The company and its management team have certainly risen to the occasion for their shareholders as they’ve devoted considerable time and energy, as well as big dollars to ensure that the company is marshalling the best technological know-how, the best equipment and the best consultants in the business to get the desired results from this high-impact drill program.
This article is intended for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell the equities of any company mentioned herein. It is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no warranty as to accuracy is expressed or implied. The opinions expressed in the article are those of the author except where statements are attributed to individuals other than the author, in which case the opinions are those of the individual to whom they are attributed.
The author and ResourcexInvestor.com are not shareholders in the companies herein mentioned, and the author, as an employee of Resourcex Publishing Corp is expressly prohibited for owning any securities about which they may write for a period of 30 days prior to and 30 days after initial publication of the article in which the securities of any company are mentioned.
Knight Energy Corp. announces 2431% increase in PV-10 from Proved Reserves. This is a hot find! Keep your ears out for this company, figures have extreme potential.
Market sure thinks so. OPEC doesnt meet again till Sep. OPEC continues to say they think market is well supplied. Value of US dollar continues to decrease. New Fund money continues to roll in.
Neat analysis. I'm just wondering what else can be affecting spreads this much. Is there really that much of a short term supply shortage?
In the scope of things that happened under Regan....yes.
Now the Iranian troop movements and HQ placements of the last 6 - 9 months are very interesting and imply from the Iranian side of things that want to in the words of William Wallace "Pick a Fight".
For right now it would be economic disaster for the US and China sources a major portion of their crude from Iran. China has no love for Iran and is searching out other sources (Canadian Oil Sands) but they are a perm. Member of the UN security Council and I doubt they will go to sleep at the wheel like they did when they did not veto the Korean War.
Iran knows that with Iraq in turmoil that they could get the south (Which is their people) and that nothing would stand between them and the Med. Sea,
The President of Iran wants a war but we will not give it to him unless he formally attacks (The US will deal with the help Iran gives the Southern Iraq rebels under the table).
The President of Iran needs us to look like the attackers to get the backing of the people and the people's minds off of the FU#KED economy of Iran and the mass exodus of educated Iranians to the West to get out from under the crushing religious and economic conditions currently in Iran.
Could write pages here but that is it in short.
If was ever came; look up the history of the decade long war Iraq & Iran fought in the 1980 - 1990. You will also realize why the UK wants their troops out. If the Iranians can get in to close combat situations with the US then that will negate to a point the superior weapons systems of the US. Then there will be a retreat by Iran into Iran... Look at the mountain ranges just inside the boarder of Iran and think of the how effective (Not) the US bombing was against Vietnam to reduce the production of weapons and their delivery plus there are countries that would help Iran under the table.
So you think war is unlikely say, in the next few months?
PDA & Caprock,
Carrier movements unless you are talking 2 or more battle groups; IE 2 carriers, 4+ CCG, 4+ DDG or FRG with 3+ SSN would not likely effect the price much; Not when it comes to Iran;
1) Silkworm emplacements
2) Hyper Speed torps with delivery systems
3) you would need 200+ extra combat AC to really exert power and that means 2+ CV battle groups and that is in addition to the CV battle groups already present plus a movement of the Red Sea group.
****No Preseeding Move By Iran**** and a pre-strike by the US would move the world veiw.
Thing is, I tend to look at it like this... the downside if war doesnt happen I estimate to be in the region of $5-10 in the near price. If it does though, upside is probably $30-40+, yet I rate war more than 50/50 to happen.
Im still bearish, although alot of new hedge fund money rolled into the market July 1.
I think a sell off will begin in the next couple of days. I should be ok with the position, although i may average up just to make sure. I wouldnt be surprised if we were to see crude oil drop $7 in one session in the coming weeks. We are swimming in gasoline inventories here along the gulf coast, explorer PL shutdown, imports are increasing, refinery problems are ending. Rbob should begin to breakdown and will take CL with it.
Sorry to hear that - not sure what to tell you, guess you've just got to go with your gut feel whether anything will happen in the Gulf. I was a bit concerned to read Debka reporting that the USS Enterprise is NOT rotating (ie not replacing) the other carrier groups in the Gulf. Not sure how true this is, Debka isn't always reliable. Plus I'm reading reports of a quiet buildup of airpower in Iraq including heavy bombers. Thing is, we really don't know - it could be a good, massive bluff. I tend to believe it isn't a bluff and that there will be an airstrike at some point.
Im one of those shorts... not looking good.
Looks like shorts are getting slaughtered by the Iran speculation that the hawks have control in the White House now.
Bonds have been rising - VIX has been rising, OIL has been rising - a lot of things point to the prospect of major events soon to occur IMO.
we will have to explore, I have been thinking about it. But if I did what we talked about I would like to take it very slow. I will have to curtail or close a few possitions to get the cash to begin and that will take a while, you know which one I am talking about. See you tomorrow.
yep.. beats flat price
spreads baby spreads
I went to dinner with a natgas trader. He is bearish, thinks crude oil will sink back down to be more in line with ng.
I don't pay any attention to trying to pinpoint new storms - I figure the markets are watching that closely and it will be well-priced pretty much as any storm develops. So I don't think I can get any extra edge by watching out for storms.
I think there are alot of people out there still buying into $70 crude. I think thats a bit high given the market condition. But several crude/gasoline traders i know indicate thats what market sentinment is..How far in advance do you monitor tropical storms coming out of africa?
Thanks, just look at the spreads though, right up until the end of the year you can buy crude for less than the cost of storage. It doesn't really make that much sense because there doesn't seem to be any short term supply squeeze in crude - gasoline maybe but not crude. The only way it makes sense to me is if the market is anticipating some serious supply disruption.
good call.. yah, I sold Aug 69.26. I didnt see it really going much higher unless more news comes out.
Got a little scared, sold Sep at 69.27. I still things something is going on in the Middle East, so I've still got a small long position in the near dates.
I bought some more of Sep. at 68.32, I'm bullish going into next week.
PDA -
Aug CL contact closed at $68 and change. I was considering buying 10 lots. You bullish?
Long or Short Sep?
Start of a new week. Just bought into CL Sep07 in order to hedge some sales of later dates
Debka file has today reported more strike carriers heading towards Iran.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=4334
I think this (and Nigeria) have a lot to do with the underlying bullish tone. Clearly gasoline demand isn't as strong in the US as analysts were antipating with inventory builds yesterday despite low refinery utilization.
I sold right before the run up last night. Im currently out, trying to understand where we are going. Market seems to want to buy up, but i havent sold that to myself.
I hope you managed to get out before the rebound tonight.
Yes nice one, Aug seems to be having some pretty solid support though just below $69
I guess my gut feel was correct. Whew...
Good luck with that. It just looks to me right now that there is more going on behind the scenes than just the strike in Nigeria. People are gearing up for gas price rises. The numbers tomorrow will be interesting.
Well, i sold Aug CL, i think when numbers come out tomorrow morning, market will move to bearish.
With Aug CL at 69.46 as I write, I think it has scope to go higher yet. Having said that, near dates are looking expensive relative to later dates, so near dates might not go that much higher in the short term -- unless there is a strike on Iran. This could happen around full moon end of June. I've noticed a small spike in Iran-war futures on betting exchanges, plus it's conceivable that knighting Salman Rushdie might have been inspired to inflame the situation and then blame them. It could well be that CL near dates are getting relatively expensive exactly because a strike on Iran is already being priced in, in which case what we see now in the market is exactly what I would expect. If an attack happened we would surely see near dates go a lot higher still and quite possibly into backwardation.
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