Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
WE WILL POP 40-50 THIS PM !!
Rolling the dice with a Feb 2, 500 call option awaiting the earnings pop! And NFLX is known for huge earnings pops!!!
Netflix to stream WWE Raw in $5 billion bet on live events
By: Investing | January 23, 2024
(Reuters) -Netflix took a big step into live events on Tuesday with a more than $5 billion rights deal that would make it the exclusive home of World Wrestling (NYSE:TKO) Entertainment's Raw from January 2025.
The 10-year partnership will put Raw on the streaming platform in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Latin America, among other territories, the companies said.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) will also exclusively telecast outside the U.S. all WWE shows and specials, including SmackDown, as well as pay-per-view live events such as WrestleMania and Royal Rumble.
Shares of Netflix rose 2% in premarket trading, while TKO Group - the parent firm of WWE - jumped 23%.
The streaming pioneer has an option to extend the deal for another 10 years or to opt out after the initial five years.
Netflix has in recent months been keen on live events and sports, which have been a bright spot for traditional TV firms when cord-cutting is upending their business models.
It secured rights to a tennis face-off between Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz last month and had streamed a golf tournament in November featuring Formula One drivers and professionals.
The Raw deal marks Netflix's first long-term bet on live events and could help draw loyal followers that turn to WWE each week for bouts between the likes of CM Punk and Cody Rhodes.
"This deal is transformative," said Mark Shapiro, president of TKO, adding that it "dramatically expands the reach of WWE, and brings weekly live appointment viewing to Netflix".
Raw, which airs on Mondays, is the top show on the Comcast-owned USA Network, where it brings in 17.5 million unique viewers over the course of the year. It debuted in 1993 and has 1,600 episodes.
The deal with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) ends this year and Raw was paid about $265 million a year for the rights under the agreement, according to Bloomberg News.
WWE merged with UFC parent Endeavour Group to form TKO Group Holdings in a deal valued at $21 billion last year, forming one of the biggest names in wrestling and entertainment.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Number of global paid Netflix $NFLX subscribers every Q4 since 2013
By: TrendSpider | January 22, 2024
• Number of global paid Netflix $NFLX subscribers every Q4 since 2013
Q4 2013: 41.4M
Q4 2014: 54.5M
Q4 2015: 70.8M
Q4 2016: 89.1M
Q4 2017: 110.6M
Q4 2018: 139.3M
Q4 2019: 167.1M
Q4 2020: 203.7
Q4 2021: 221.8M
Q4 2022: 231M
Q4 2023: Find out tomorrow after the close
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX nice trader off news but can't hold it. Earnings on the 23rd.. gap fills @ 506 area...
By: Options Mike | January 15, 2024
• $NFLX nice trader off news but can't hold it.
Earnings on the 23rd.. gap fills @ 506 area....
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
$NFLX has received an unusual amount of calls today
By: Cheddar Flow | January 11, 2024
• $NFLX has received an unusual amount of calls today
All of them only have a couple days/weeks until their expiration, so these traders are looking for a quick bounce
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
What jumps out on the chart of NFLX? For me, it's a glaring bearish momentum divergence
By: David Keller | January 10, 2024
• What jumps out on the chart of NFLX? For me, it's a glaring bearish momentum divergence. Higher price highs in Nov-Dec, but lower RSI through those new highs. Suggests a likely exhaustion point after the Q4 rally phase...
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Charts like $NFLX showing a strong setup into year-end, currently retesting resistance around 480-500 after an early December pullback. A push above 500 would take $NFLX above the final Fibonacci level and also close the gap (finally) from early 2022!
By: David Keller | December 19, 2023
• Charts like $NFLX showing a strong setup into year-end, currently retesting resistance around 480-500 after an early December pullback. A push above 500 would take $NFLX above the final Fibonacci level and also close the gap (finally) from early 2022!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix shares rally as Morgan Stanley ups price target, cites increasing confidence in return on content spending
By: Investing | December 18, 2023
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares jumped more than 3% Monday after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $550 from $475 per share.
NFLX shares are trading around the $488 mark at the time of writing.
Analysts at the investment bank cited the Overweight-rated company's "attractive risk/reward," its increased confidence in Netflix's return on content spending, execution on growth initiatives, including paid sharing and advertising, and the pull-back in competitive intensity in broader Media.
Morgan Stanley also noted that Netflix has begun hedging currency, which it expects will lift earnings, although they note that the impact of FX moves will be delayed in reported results.
"We continue to see NFLX shares as offering an attractive risk/reward as we raise our estimates and PT to $550, which implies shares trade at 26x our 2025E EPS, as we continue to forecast a 25-30% EPS CAGR over the next four years," said the investment bank.
"Our earnings outlook has increased on the stronger USD since our October upgrade. There is a high 70-80% flow-through of FX moves to EBIT given the cost base of Netflix," they added.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said it is raising its net adds forecast for Netflix "modestly" in 2024 and beyond, as they see the combined benefits of original programming strength and competitive withdrawal benefiting member growth at Netflix.
The investment bank believes Netflix's "unmatched scale" and FCF generation opens up new opportunities for the business, noting that the streaming giant is two years into its gaming investments and "the benefits of these investments have yet to be material but offer upside in the future." At the same time, the company is also "increasingly able to optimize its content spending with new options around licensing."
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
$NFLX missed expectations $100.00 coming
$NFLX Book value is only $50.51 Should be trading under that. Has nearly $20 Billion of debt. America is $33 trillion debt. Bankrupt coming
Netflix $NFLX Total Debt (mrq) $16.76 Billion
Netflix $NFLX Not participating, under the 21D... 445 area support.. ish...
By: Options Mike | December 10, 2023
• $NFLX Not participating, under the 21D...
445 area support.. ish...
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX Nice bull flag broke down, 21D next big level to watch
By: Options Mike | December 3, 2023
• $NFLX Nice bull flag broke down,
21D next big level to watch.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System Has $206.64 Million Holdings in Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
By: MarketBeat | November 25, 2023
• State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System trimmed its stake in Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) by 3.0% in the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 469,124 shares of the Internet television network's stock after selling 14,757 shares during the period. State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System owned about 0.11% of Netflix worth $206,644,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period...
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
$NFLX Gap almost filled and raging hot now... careful, prefer dip buys
By: Options Mike | November 19, 2023
• $NFLX Gap almost filled and raging hot now... careful, prefer dip buys.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX CEO sold over $35M of stock last week
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 13, 2023
• $NFLX CEO sold over $35M of stock last week.
- When the market is pumping to highs and CEOS are selling, its never a sign that they think their shares are "undervalued"
NOT a sign to short, but something to keep records on!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX Nice push up on Actors strike ending. Gap ahead @ 453.50 area
By: Options Mike | November 12, 2023
• $NFLX Nice push up on Actors strike ending. Gap ahead @ 453.50 area.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
$NFLX & $NVDA Bullish Tape So Far
By: Cheddar Flow | November 10, 2023
• $NFLX & $NVDA Bullish Tape So Far
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX Finally broke 420 and grinding higher now.. 450 and that gap next resistance
By: Options Mike | November 5, 2023
• $NFLX Finally broke 420 and grinding higher now.. 450 and that gap next resistance.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Wonder where headed and what happened to the lawsuits
Any buyers from $200 still holding
Chairman Reed Hastings sold 16,030 $NFLX shares worth approximately $6.7 million this week
By: Barchart | November 3, 2023
• Netflix Insider Trading Alert
Chairman Reed Hastings sold 16,030 $NFLX shares worth approximately $6.7 million this week
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix, Inc. $NFLX Total Debt (mrq) $16.76B w/ Book value of only $50.51 overbought by 800%
Netflix Inc. $NFLX Big report, nice growth, like it for more over 410
By: Options Mike | October 22, 2023
• $NFLX Big report, nice growth, like it for more over 410.
Do I believe this is sustainable? NO! This is due to the Strikes.. but play it til next report!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Monster Day for Netflix $NFLX which is poised for its largest gain in almost 3 years and would get the stock back above its 200 and 50 Day moving averages!
By: Barchart | October 19, 2023
• Monster Day for Netflix $NFLX which is poised for its largest gain in almost 3 years and would get the stock back above its 200 and 50 Day moving averages!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX Upgrades from brokerage firms
By: Evan | October 19, 2023
Morgan Stanley today upgraded Netflix $NFLX to Overweight from Equal Weight while raising its price target to $475 from $430
JPMorgan raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $480 from $455 while maintaining its Overweight rating
Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $400 from $390 while maintaining its Neutral rating
Truist upgraded Netflix $NFLX to Buy from Hold while raising its price target to $465 from $430
Keybanc upgraded Netflix $NFLX to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $510 price target
Oppenheimer raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $475 from $470 while maintaining its Outperform rating
Benchmark raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $350 from $325 while maintaining its Sell rating
Bernstein today raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $390 from $375 while maintaining its Market Perform rating
Deutsche Bank today lowered its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $460 from $485 while maintaining its Buy rating
MoffettNathanson today raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $390 from $330 while maintaining its Neutral rating
Rosenblatt raised its price target on Netflix $NFLX to $404 from $400 while maintaining its Neutral rating
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix Paid Subscribers, Millions
By: Charlie Bilello | October 18, 2023
• Netflix Paid Subscribers, Millions
2023 (Q3): 247 (+11% YoY)
2022: 231
2021: 222
2020: 204
2019: 167
2018: 139
2017: 118
2016: 94
2015: 75
2014: 57
2013: 44
2012: 33
2011: 24
2010: 20
2009: 12
2008: 9.4
2007: 7.5
2006: 6.3
2005: 4.2
2004: 2.6
2003: 1.5
2002: 0.8
2001: 0.5
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix shares surge on big subscriber additions despite Hollywood strikes
By: Investing | October 19, 2023
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -Streaming pioneer Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) showed resilience by gaining more quarterly subscribers than in the past three years despite strikes by Hollywood's writers and actors, sending its shares up 14.5% on Thursday.
Netflix capitalized on its heft in global production, as well as the economic hardships of its media rivals, to garner 247 million subscribers in the third quarter, a gain of nearly 9 million over the last three months.
It was the greatest gain since the COVID-19 outbreak fueled unprecedented growth in early 2020.
Netflix shares rose to $396.20, putting them on course for the biggest one-day percentage gain in nearly three years, with the company on track to add more than $22 billion to its market capitalization.
"The management deserves an Emmy for managing investor expectations," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note, adding that paid-sharing has opened up a bigger-than-expected market of potential subscribers for Netflix.
Results from media rivals such as Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Paramount Global and Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) will show the impact of the industry's months-long work stoppage, which began in May with strike by Hollywood's writers.
Members of the Writers Guild of America settled this month, though actors, who walked off the job in July, remain on strike.
U.S. broadcast networks filled their fall lineups with repeats and reality shows, while rival streaming services delayed releases and had less foreign-language programs than Netflix, which could produce in more than 50 countries and languages.
"Due to its large international presence, Netflix is positioned better than most entertainment companies in plugging programming gaps from the writers' and actors' strikes," said Insider Intelligence principal analyst Ross Benes.
"With original US productions delayed and other TV and streaming companies no longer holding exclusive titles with vise grips, expect Netflix to revert to its past when many of its biggest shows were licensed," Benes said.
A live-action adaptation of the Japanese manga series, "One Piece", which represented a collaboration between Netflix's U.S. and Japanese content teams, ranked as the top show in 84 countries - a feat that even the popular sci-fi series "Stranger Things" did not accomplish.
Meanwhile, the legal drama "Suits", which last aired on the USA Network in 2019, set viewing records when it landed on the streaming service in the summer, one of several television shows Netflix licensed from media competitors that are finding fresh audiences on Netflix.
"Because of our distribution footprint and our recommendation system, we are able to take 'Suits', which had played on other streaming services, and pop it right into the center of the culture in a huge way," Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said during Wednesday's investor video.
As talks between the union for actors and performers and major studios broke down last week, Sarandos saw parallels to how Netflix navigated "prolonged and pretty unpredictable production interruptions" during the pandemic.
"These are the times that I'm glad we have such a rich and deep and broad program selection," Sarandos said.
Still, Netflix is not free from strike disruptions. U.S.-based shows such as mega-hit "Stranger Things" are on hold until actors return to work.
Delays for some of its biggest shows are "problematic" for Netflix because "it doesn't have the same back catalog as Disney+ to fall back on", said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
$NFLX Take profits here. Netflix has enormous debt Total Debt (mrq) $16.99B
its crickets up in here even on earnings lol.. total garbage stock lost 80% in 3 months beginning 22
No dividend for such an expensive stock... why own this? it will never regain its former market share
absolutely and content drought incoming from the overpaid goloms
NFLX FAKE BS BOOK COOKERS!!!!!!!!!!
Netflix $NFLX Just Reported Earnings:
By: Evan | October 18, 2023
• NETFLIX $NFLX JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $3.73 beating expectations of $3.49
Revenue of $8.54B in line with expectations
Netflix added 8.76 Million new subscribers above expectations of 6.2M
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Earnings Reports: Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | October 18, 2023
• Here is a look at three earnings reports on the calendar for Wednesday afternoon.
Netflix
Shares of Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) have increased by nearly 57% in the past year. Analysts and investors were concerned that the company’s offering of an ad-supported subscription tier would weigh on revenue. That did not happen. In fact, revenue rose in each of the past two quarters and so have profits.
As always, analysts will be paying close attention to subscription growth, expecting the company’s crackdown on account sharing to produce even better results. The end of the writers’ strike may prod Netflix to raise its ad-free subscription rate for the first time since January of 2022.
Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 24 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another 19 have Hold ratings. At a share price of around $361.00, the stock potential upside based on a median price target of $457.50 is 26.7%. At the high price target of $600.00, the upside potential is about 66.2%.
Third-quarter revenue is forecast at $8.54 billion, up 4.3% sequentially and 7.7% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $3.48, up 5.7% sequentially and by 12.3% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year, analysts expect to see EPS of $11.85, up 19.1%, on sales of $33.72 billion, up 6.6%.
Netflix shares trade at 30.5 times expected 2023 EPS, 23.9 times estimated 2024 earnings of $15.07 and 19.5 times estimated 2025 earnings of $18.50 per share. The 52-week trading range is $234.40 to $485.00. Netflix does not pay a dividend. Total shareholder return for the past 12 months was 56.88%.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $1.5 Million Call Seller Looking to Collect Premium
By: Cheddar Flow | October 17, 2023
• $NFLX $1.5M Call Seller Looking to Collect Premium
*At the Bid*
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Brushes Off Pre-Earnings Bear Notes
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 16, 2023
• UBS and Guggenheim both cut their price targets on NFLX
• NFLX sports a 23% lead for 2023
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is up 1.8% at $362.13 at last check, brushing off price-target cuts from UBS and Guggenheim to $500 and $460, respectively. This comes ahead of the streaming giant's third-quarter earnings report, due out after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 18. The stock is looking to stage a bounce from the $350 region after its September rejection at the $450 area. So far this year, NFLX is up 23%.
The security has a generally negative history of post-earnings reactions. NFLX finished five of its past eight next-day sessions lower, including an 8.4% drop in July. The shares averaged a move of 12.4% in the last two years, regardless of direction, with the options pits pricing in a move of 12.2% this time around.
Netflix stock has been garnering bearish attention ahead of its report. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NFLX sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio that sits higher than 86% of readings from the past 12 months.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Here's What Analysts Expect from Netflix Ahead of Wednesday's Earnings
By: Barchart | October 16, 2023
This hasn’t been the most fruitful year for Netflix (NFLX), even as most tech stocks have fared exceptionally well in 2023. Netflix’s stock has gained 21.9% year-to-date, while the benchmark Nasdaq Composite ($NASX) has risen nearly 30%.
www.barchart.com
In comparison, here’s how the other FAANG stocks have performed so far this calendar year:
• Meta Platforms (META), previously known as Facebook: up 165%
• Amazon (AMZN): up 56%
• Apple (AAPL): up 38%
• Alphabet (GOOGL), previously known as Google: up 57%
Valued at $157.61 billion, Netflix is the global streaming market leader. Inflation and rising competition in the streaming market have slowed Netflix’s growth in the last few quarters. Furthermore, it made some major changes this year, which has made some investors skeptical of its growth prospects.
However, despite the relatively slow growth, most analysts believe the stock has more upside - and the company appears to be optimistic for the remainder of the year. Even amid increased competition, Netflix still has a stronghold in the streaming business, with revenue up from $16 billion to $32 billion in the last five years.
Netflix Expects Growth To Accelerate Through Year-End
This year, Netflix made significant changes to its C-suite leadership. Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters were named co-CEOs in January, with Reed Hastings staying as Executive Chairman. Amy Reinhard took over as President of Advertising from Jeremi Gorman earlier this month. A sudden change in C-suite leadership usually tends to shake up the stock in anticipation of how the new management will affect the company.
In May, Netflix also announced its subscribers will be unable to share passwords anymore. It introduced paid sharing in more than 100 countries, charging an additional $8 monthly to add a member to your account. The company received a lot of backlash shortly after this decision, with the hashtag “CancelNetflix” trending on Twitter (now known as X).
While many expected this decision to result in more subscriber cancellations, Netflix announced in its Q2 results that it added 5.9 million globally. The streamer's total revenue was $8.2 billion, up 3% year on year, with $1.5 billion in net profit.
Management expects revenue to grow in the second half of this year, driven by the successful rollout of its paid-sharing launch in all the remaining countries, and continued steady growth in its ad-supported plan. Netflix expects revenue to be around $8.5 billion in Q3, which would be an uptick from $7.9 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The company anticipates generating $5 billion in free cash flow (FCF) this year. Management stated that the Hollywood writers' strike reduced cash content spending for 2023. Since the strike has ended, Netflix anticipates spending more on cash content while still generating significant positive FCF in 2024.
What Do Analysts Expect From Netflix’s Q3 Results?
Ahead of this Wednesday's earnings report, analysts predict that Netflix's Q3 revenue will come in at $8.54 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, and in line with management’s forecast. Earnings per share (EPS) could grow by 12% year-over-year to $3.47.
For the full year 2023, revenue could increase by 7% to $34 billion. Analysts’ estimate for FY EPS is $11.94, up 20% from EPS of $9.95 in 2022.
www.barchart.com
Decelerating growth has made some analysts slightly less optimistic about Netflix’s stock. Last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen, and Wells Fargo all reduced their respective price targets for Netflix, while Wolfe Research downgraded NFLX from Outperform to Peer Perform. The analyst stated, “The company's 2024 average revenue per user expectations look full while today's paid-sharing net additions will lead to tomorrow's gross adds shortfall.”
Wolfe has no price target for the stock, but believes Netflix's “valuation is reasonable but will not withstand falling growth.” Currently, Netflix trades at 30 times forward earnings.
At present, out of the 37 analysts following Netflix stock, 20 have a “strong buy” recommendation, 15 say it's a “hold,” and two propose a “ strong sell.”
Based on analysts' average price target of $444.39, Wall Street expects potential upside of about 23% in the next 12 months. The highest target price stands at $600 and the lowest at $215 for Netflix.
www.barchart.com
The Takeaway
According to reports, Netflix plans to raise the price for ad-free streaming after the WGA strike ends, but the company has made no official announcement so far. It will be interesting to see if the decision, if executed, increases revenue as the company competes with other streaming platforms such as Alphabet’s YouTube, Disney (DIS), Amazon's Prime Video, and others.
With the strike over and backlash over paid sharing waning, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney believes that price hikes and improved content could be positive catalysts for the company in 2024. He is optimistic Netflix will be able to meet its 2024 EPS target of $15 per share. The analyst gave the stock a Buy rating. For 2024, the consensus estimate for revenue is $38 billion, representing growth of 13% with EPS of $15.1 per share.
We will know more about Netflix’s performance and growth strategies for 2024 when it releases its earnings this Wednesday, Oct. 18.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Analyst Pessimism Continues for Netflix (NFLX) Stock
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 13, 2023
• Wolfe Research downgraded NFLX to "peer perform" from "outperform"
• Netflix will report earnings this Wednesday, Oct. 18
The shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) are moving lower today, as analysts grow more pessimistic toward the streaming giant. Wolfe Research downgraded NFLX to "peer perform" from "outperform," citing concerns after the company's growth forecast, while MoffettNathanson cut its price target to $325 from $380, noting that the crackdown on password sharing appears to have a negative impact. These bear notes come after no fewer than four analyst price-target cuts just this week.
At last glance, Netflix stock was down 1.4% at $356.22, and on track for its fourth-straight day of losses. Now trading at its lowest levels since May, the stock is still up 21.1% since the start of the year.
Analysts are fairly split on NFLX, with 25 of the 44 in coverage carrying a "buy" or better rating on the stock, and 19 a "hold" or worse. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $458.63 sits at a 29.2% premium to current levels.
The stock will likely see some volatility next week as well, as it's no stranger to large post-earnings swings. Netflix will report earnings after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 18, with options traders pricing in a next-day move of 10.1% -- slightly lower than the 12.4% move the stock has averaged over the past two years. Following its last eight earnings reports, NFLX has finished higher only three times.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix downgraded ahead of earnings on 'full' 24 expectations: 4 big analyst cuts
By: Investing | October 13, 2023
Netflix stock falls after Wolfe Research downgrade
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares fell more than 2% pre-market today after Wolfe Research downgraded the company to Peerperform from Outperform, as reported in real-time on InvestingPro.
“2024 ARPU expectations look full, while today's paid-sharing net adds lead to tomorrow's gross add shortfalls,” the analysts commented.
While Netflix has been expanding its share of the global premium video revenue, the analysts flag 2024-2025 growth forecasts as too optimistic.
“If future growth falls short, we doubt that NFLX's 50% P/E and 70% EV/EBITDA premium to the S&P would hold up,” added Wolfe.
The company is set to report its Q3/23 earnings on Oct 18.
Fortinet shares fall after Barclays downgrade
Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) shares fell more than 3% pre-market today after Barclays downgraded the company to Equalweight from Overweight and cut its price target to $63.00 from $71.00.
This decision follows the analysts’ checks that sound incrementally negative for Q3, decreased emphasis on firewall refresh as a spending priority in their CIO survey, and potential valuation declines due to the cyclical slowdown in firewall and timeline to catch up to leading vendors in the SASE market.
“Longer term, we like FTNT's platform approach and think the stock has terminal value, but we see a balanced risk/reward which underpins our Equal Weight rating,” added the analysts.
Two more downgrades
Oppenheimer downgraded Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) to Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $210.00 from $280.00.
While Tractor Supply offers promising long-term new unit growth and margin expansion within mid-cap specialty retail, the analysts noted nearer-term concerns. “We are increasingly concerned that TSCO shares do not yet discount adequately for a potentially pro-longed, post-pandemic sales expansion lull, likely to occur as COVID-related tailwinds gradually abate,” commented Oppenheimer.
JD (NASDAQ:JD).com received downgrades from two Wall Street firms today. Morgan Stanley cut its rating from Overweight to Equalweight with a price target of $33.00 (from $55.00). Meanwhile, Macquarie downgraded the company from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $32.00 (from $52.00).
"Shares of JD have come off sharply from peak, and YTD underperformance indicates market concerns over its lackluster growth outlook,” commented Macquarie.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
BREAKING: Netflix to open 2 physical stores in the U.S. in 2025. Fans will be able to play, shop, and eat.
By: NextGen News | October 12, 2023
BREAKING: Netflix to open 2 physical stores in the U.S. in 2025.
— NextGen News (@Next_GenNews) October 12, 2023
Fans will be able to play, shop, and eat.
- Bloomberg
Netflix remains a compelling buy once sell-side estimates are reset - Citi
By: Investing | October 12, 2023
Ahead of Netflix's (NASDAQ:NFLX) earnings release after the close on Wednesday, October 18, analysts at JPMorgan and Citi released notes previewing the report.
Analysts at JPMorgan told investors in a note that the focus will be on the paid sharing progress, ad scale average revenue per membership (ARM) into Q4 and 2024, and operating margin trajectory.
"We remain positive on NFLX overall, but we recognize there is a growing list of questions into 3Q earnings w/the Street looking for more clarity around recent conference comments, ad business leadership changes, and whether a softer margin trajectory is coming from a position of competitive strength or slower growth (or both)," the analysts said, who maintained a Buy rating and $455 price target on the stock.
The firm estimates NFLX will have cumulative borrower monetization of 18 million by the end of 2023, 30 million by the end of 2024, and 37 million by the end of 2025. In addition, they estimate 10 million ad tier subscribers at the end of 2023, "which would mean 20M+ MAUs/viewers, which could prove optimistic."
Analysts at Citi, who maintained a Buy rating and $500 price target on the stock, said the set-up has three facets.
"First, the good news: Netflix continues to take share of video viewing and the ad tier still has significant upside potential. Second, the neutral news: We expect Netflix to report results in line with the Street on all key metrics. Third, the bad news: consensus estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 may need to come down for revenues and margins," the analysts explained.
"To us, this suggests bearish tactical positioning may be reasonable. But, once sell-side estimates get reset, we believe Netflix remains a compelling Buy as rivals increase pricing and moderate content spending opening up a window for Netflix to distance itself from rivals," they added.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix Stock Still Looks Like Good Value for Value Investors
By: Barchart | October 6, 2023
Netflix (NFLX) stock is well off its highs and is good value now. NFLX is trading for $374.31 in morning trading on Friday, Oct. 6, which is well below its Sept. 11 high of $445.36 and the year-to-date high of $477.59 on July 19.
However, given Netflix's huge free cash flow (FCF), investors expect good results for Q3, expected to come out on Oct. 18. As a result, this is good for income plays like selling short out-of-the-money (OTM) put and calls options in near-term expiration periods.
FCF Could Power Netflix Stock Higher
I discussed Netflix's huge FCF in my Sept. 15 Barchart article, “Netflix Stock is Well Off Its Highs - Ideal for Value Buyers and Short Put Traders.” For example, Netflix made over $3.46 billion in FCF in the first of 2023.
This was disclosed on the first page of the company's Q2 shareholder letter. It showed that it made $2.117 billion in Q1 and $1.339 billion in Q2.
Last year, in Q3 Netflix made just $472 million in FCF. So any Q3 number that is $1.0 billion or higher will show that the company is making significant progress with its new pricing plan.
It will also show how well it weathered the actors' and writers' strikes in Q3.
But even more importantly, analysts will be looking at the company's FCF margins. Last quarter it was over 21% for the first six months of the year.
Here is why that is important. It could propel the stock higher if the margin stays at this level or rises.
For example, analysts project Netflix's revenue next year will rise over 13% to $38.23 billion, according to Seeking Alpha's survey of 40 analysts. If we apply the 21% margin to this forecast, the expected FCF could hit $8.0 billion for the year.
As a result, using a 4.0% FCF yield, Netflix's market cap could rise to $200 billion. This is seen by dividing $8 billion by 4%. It's also the same as multiplying NFLX by 25x, since that is the inverse of 4% (i.e., 1/0.04=25x).
The point is that since Netflix's market cap today is just $166 billion, the stock could rise by over 20% (i.e., $200b/$166b-1 = 0.205). This implies that NFLX stock is worth over $451 per share (i.e., 1.205 x $374.31 = $451.31).
Shorting OTM NFLX Put And Calls Options For Income
Last month we discussed selling short the $380 strike price puts for expiration on Sept. 30. The stock closed at $377.60 on Sept. 30, so these expired in-the-money (ITM). However, the investor was able to collect $3.33, so their breakeven price was $376.67.
In other words, by selling these OTM puts the investor was able to collect income and still had a profit, even though the short was exercised and the investor now had to purchase the stock at $380.
One thing that the investor can now do is sell out-of-the-money (OTM) calls against these shares. For example, the Oct. 27 call options at the $405 strike price trade for $8.28 today.
That means the investor can make a 2.19% covered call yield with just 3 weeks to expiration. That is seen by dividing the $8.28 premium received by today's price of $377 per share. Moreover, that strike price is over 7.85% over today's price. That means that if the stock rises to that price and the investor has to sell his shares at $405, they keep the extra 7.85% realized gain. The total potential return is therefore 10% (i.e., 2.19% +7.85% = 9.95%).
NFLX Calls - Expiring Oct. 27 - Barchart - As of Oct. 6
In fact, the $400 calls trade for $9.70. This provides a 3-week 2.57% covered call yield, as well as a potential 6.52% realized gain or a potential 9.09% return.
Moreover, another way to play this, without having to sell any shares if called, is to sell OTM puts. For example, the Oct. 27 puts at the $350 strike price trade for $9.35 per put. This strike price is 6.79% below today's spot price, equivalent to the OTM widths of the calls above, but the premium is higher.
Moreover, the yield is significantly higher. Here is why. The investor only has to risk $350 per contract. So the yield is $9.35 divided by $350.00, for a total yield of 2.67%. Moreover, the investor has no obligation to have to sell any stock, even if the stock falls.
Here is what that means exactly. The covered investor has to buy the shares at today's price but their return is lower since their investment cost is higher. This is because the spot price of $377 requires an investor to spend $37,700 or 100 shares in order to sell 100 covered calls.
However, the short put investor only has to secure $35,000 in order to sell short 100 puts. Therefore, with a similar premium level, the actual return is higher for the put investor since their investment cost is lower.
The bottom line is that Netflix stock is likely to move higher and it makes sense to short either covered calls or cash-secured puts for the value investor.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix $NFLX $5.5 Million Call Seller (Very Unusual)
By: Cheddar Flow | October 3, 2023
• $NFLX $5.5M Call Seller (Very Unusual)
This whale is looking to collect premium on these contracts (Vol>OI)
*Below the Bid*
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix, Inc. $NFLX found the 200D.. and 8D resistance.. tight set up here
By: Options Mike | September 30, 2023
• $NFLX found the 200D.. and 8D resistance.. tight set up here.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Netflix, Inc. $NFLX Writers strike deal about done? Rumor. 8D has to be retaken to the upside.. 200D next support
By: Options Mike | September 24, 2023
• $NFLX Writers strike deal about done? Rumor.
8D has to be retaken to the upside.. 200D next support.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Followers
|
332
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
9269
|
Created
|
07/18/03
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators DiscoverGold |
Company Address:
Investor Relations Department
100 Winchester Circle
Los Gatos CA 95032-7620
480.540.3700
CIK: 0001065280
Netflix, Inc. (Netflix), incorporated on August 29, 1997, is an Internet subscription service streaming television shows and movies. The Company's subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers and mobile devices, and in the United States, subscribers can also receive digital versatile discs (DVDs) delivered to their homes. The Company operates in three segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD.
The Company obtains content from various studios and other content providers through fixed-fee licenses, revenue sharing agreements and direct purchases. The Company markets its service through various channels, including online advertising, broad-based media, such as television and radio, as well as various partnerships. In connection with marketing the service, the Company offers free-trial memberships to new and certain rejoining members. It utilizes the services of third-party cloud computing providers, such as Amazon Web Services, as well as content delivery networks, such as Level 3 Communications. The Company also ships and receives DVDs in the United States from a nationwide network of shipping centers. As of December 31, 2011, the Company offered subscribers the ability to receive streaming content through their personal computers (PCs), Macs and other Internet-connected devices, including Blu-ray players and televisions, digital video players, game consoles and mobile devices.
The Company obtains content through streaming content license agreements, DVD direct purchases and DVD and streaming revenue sharing agreements with studios, distributors and other suppliers. The Company obtains content distribution rights in order to stream television shows and movies to subscribers' televisions, computers and mobile devices. Streaming content is generally licensed for a fixed-fee for the term of the license agreement. The Company acquires DVD content for the purpose of renting, such content to its subscribers and earning subscription rental revenues, and, as such, the Company considers its direct purchase DVD library to be a productive asset.
The Company competes with HBO GO, Showtime Anytime, SkyGo, BBC iPlayer, Time Warner, Comcast, DIRECTV, Echostar, AT&T, Verizon, iTunes, Amazon.com, Hulu.com, Hulu Plus, LOVEFiLM, Google, Blockbuster, Redbox, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Amazon.com.
COMPANY PROFILE
With more than 50 million streaming members in the United States, Canada, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Ireland and the Nordics, Cuban, France, Germany, Netherlands, plans of expansion to Japan in 2015, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is the world's leading internet subscription service for enjoying movies and TV programs. For one low monthly price, Netflix members can instantly watch movies and TV programs streamed over the internet to PCs, Macs and TVs. Among the large and expanding base of devices streaming from Netflix are the Microsoft Xbox 360, Nintendo Wii and Sony PS3 consoles; an array of Blu-ray disc players, internet-connected TVs, home theatre systems, digital video recorders and internet video players; Apple iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, as well as Apple TV and Google TV. In all, over 800 devices that stream from Netflix are available. For additional information, visit www.netflix.com. Follow Netflix on Facebook and Twitter.
Netflix also initiated self original series/movies: Netflix production. Including Orange is the New Black, House of Cards, Lilyhammer, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Bloodline, Marvel's Daredevil, Grace and Frankie, Sense8, Narcos, Chef's Table, etc.
All for $8.99 a month, EXTRA IF DVDS by mail plan.
Recent News:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=NFLX+Headlines
http://news.google.com/news?as_q=netflix&svnum=10&as_scoring=r&hl=en&ned=&btnG=G....
Filings: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&match=&CIK=0001065280&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany
Various Netflix related links:
http://www.hackingnetflix.com/
http://netflixfan.blogspot.com/
http://movies.groups.yahoo.com/group/Netflix/
Share Structure:
Outstanding Shares
424.36 mil shares as of Jul/15/2015
97% inst. own
Investor Relations:
http://ir.netflix.com/
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |