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It's banging it's head against the ceiling. Probably need more volume to find the roof.
Yes, a lot of churning today looks like and buys as well. Breakout soon $$$
Seems like it's building up for a breakout
Earnings Show Navios Has the Means to Remain Afloat
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/05/25/2016/earnings-show-navios-has-means-remain-afloat?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
The Street By Jim Collins
Navios Maritime Holdings (NM) shares have been trading as if the enterprise were sinking fast, but this morning's earnings release showed the company is on an even keel. Naval references aside, it's clear Navios has the financial wherewithal to survive the brutal plunge in freight rates for dry bulk ships. NM shares were falling hard into today's earnings release, but the shorts' worst fears were not realized, and Navios Holdings shares have bounced 20% today in a relief rally.
Navios posted EBITDA of $45.4 million for the quarter, a 73% year-on-year increase. The key to analyzing Navios Maritime Holdings is the last word -- holdings. While Navios' dry bulk ships suffered under a first quarter that saw the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fall to an all-time low of 290, the company's 64%-owned South American Logistics business posted a 35% percent gain in EBITDA for the quarter, driven by strong results from its barging business in the Hidrovia region.
Historically, Navios Holdings has supported its corporate family members -- Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), Navios Acquisition (NNA), Navios Midstream Partners (NAP), Navios South American Logistics -- with working capital support. Also, Holdings has chartered-in boats owned by Partners, a more direct form of intrafamily support.
On this morning's conference call, CEO Angeliki Frangou noted that working capital support was no longer needed by Holdings' affiliate companies. Also, Holdings generated a $14.9 million gain in the quarter from ending certain charter commitments, and many of Holdings' charters of Partners' boats have expired in the first part of 2016.
Simple, isn't it? Well, it never is with Navios, but the key takeaway is that the parent, Navios Maritime Holdings, survived the worst quarter in the recorded history of dry bulk shipping and exited the quarter with $157 million in cash on its balance sheet.
In the short term, Navios Holdings' common shares, NM, are going to be buffeted by a host of factors -- including a commercial dispute with Vale (VALE) over a port being constructed by the company's South American Logistics business and what looks to be a seasonal slowdown in the BDI, fixed at 605 today, down from the recent high of 720, set in late April.
Longer term, however, the business is viable and on today's trading, I've been taking some profits in NM common with an eye toward adding to my position in Navios Holdings' Series G preferred.
Yes, NM-G is my Real Money Best Idea and as of 3 p.m. ET yesterday, but it wasn't looking so hot (note that the quotes on the RM Best Ideas scoreboard are a day behind real time). This morning's release showed that bankruptcy fears at Navios were overblown, however, and even as NM-G shares trade up by 25% today, I think there is still extreme value there at 15 cents on the dollar.
What I've learned in following preferreds through the commodities (and commodity shipping) meltdown is that investors don't care whether dividends are paid or not (Navios last paid preferred dividends in January). No, as with the Series A preferreds of Gastar Exploration (GST) -- which were the subject of my first Real Money column three years ago and have recovered to 35 cents on the dollar today from the February low of 11 cents on the dollar -- investors are using deeply discounted preferreds as a call option on recovery. It's happening in oil, and that is a positive sign for companies involved in any aspect of the commodities trade, including Navios. So, NM-G is still a good buy here.
Today we break out!!! It will be a beautiful thing to behold!
$NM
This has been the most stable stock I've traded in the last 5 business days. Still up trending.
Agreed, but it looks like volume is deteriorating a bit. Could help keep it off daytraders' radars, but it'll take some patience for steady gains to grow IMO. Mixed bag.
Very happy with the performance here. Another monster slowly developing!!! Just look at those gains in the week!
Yes they are paying dividends to the company at least this year and next. I forgot the exact numbers but it was a large sum. Don't confuse this with investors dividends. Those are for the preferred shares only I believe which are temporarily suspended in order to ensure survival of NM (smart CEO).
Navios Maritime Holdings Revisited
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3977797-navios-maritime-holdings-revisited?source=intbrokers_regular
( SORRY, I CAN'T LINK THE DIAGRAMS )
By Norman Roberts (SeekingAlpha)
Summary
- Preferred, fixed income investing offers a way to convert the worst of times to potentially the best of times.
- Navios Maritime Holdings: Is it the right time to invest in their preferred equities?
- Recent conference call signals potential Navios survival.
- Months later and I remain encouraged that Navios will eventually survive and prosper.
Several months ago I submitted one of my first articles written from the perspective of a preferred investor. At the time, as is now, Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE:NM)was facing an existential threat, primarily because of the historically low Baltic Dry Index, BDI, dry bulk shipping rates. Because I held a large position in the preferred shares of NM, I was greatly concerned. However, that concern was tempered by knowledge of this holding company, which consisted of several subsidiaries that ultimately made it something more than just a dry bulk shipper. I was also encouraged by what I had heard about NM's CEO, Angeliki Frangou, who appeared to be eminently qualified and well connected within the industry. Consequently, I proposed the low $-wise risk investment, noting that the play was otherwise of great risk and even greater reward.
This morning I listened to the Navios CC, whose shares as late as yesterday were beaten down to prices even below when I first posted the original article. After the CC and all this morning shares of NM-H, NM-G and their bonds have staged nice, although modest recovery. Navios still faces existential threat for sure, but as before, I'm wagering that Navios will survive and eventually prosper. Below are some of the reasons why I believe so. Time will tell.
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For those interested I have provided a link to the conference call where you might gain access to a repeat of the session. To be honest, in a day or two a SA transcript will most probably be made available, which will be more understandable and easily followed. Then with the link I have just provided, you can follow along with the attendant PDF.
We are playing in a zero-sum game on a field filled with winners and losers. Over the past year and a half, especially in the E&P oil sector, there have been a tremendous number of losers, me included. Also during this time, the shipping sector, specifically dry bulk and container shipping, has similarly faced an increasingly difficult market, which has wreaked havoc on the share prices of shippers, Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE:NM) in particular, along with others in this sector: Global Ship Lease (NYSE:GSL), Navios Maritime (NYSE:NMM), Coastamare (NYSE:CMRE), Safe Bulkers (NYSE:SB), Box Ships (NYSE:TEU), and International Shipholding (OTCQX:ISHC). These among others are suffering as a result of a slumping global economy, the fall of China's GDP, European economic stagnation, and the ever-present and rapid decline of the price of oil. For those of us who held any of these positions, and held on to them during their fall, it certainly has been the worst of times. However, because we are playing in this zero-sum game, it can quite possibly be the best of times.
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," often preached that smart investors ran toward the market when many were running away. Because I'm primarily a preferred investor, I have found this to be an excellent opportunity to buy preferred shares at bargain basement prices. Recently, the two sectors of the economy hardest hit have been energy and shipping. More specifically upstream oil E&P's and drybulk and container shippers. Frankly, I no longer trust the oil E&P's, wildcatters, true to their name. Those cats have done me in. Thank you, Gary Evans, the CEO of Magnum Hunter (OTCPK:MHRCQ) and Green Hunter Resources (NYSEMKT:GRH), which are now in bankruptcy. As is Miller Energy Resources (NYSE:MILL). However, although shaky, I still have faith in some of the beaten-down shipping companies, which you might want to take a flyer on provided you can afford to lose the amount you are willing to risk. In this article I will focus on the possibility of investing in the preferred equities of Navios Maritime Holdings. However, before investing, I urge careful due diligence starting with a visit to the Navios Website.
I particularly like NM for its diversity, although I'm concerned about the amount of debt it carries, which at present stands 1.53 times its equity. Furthermore, its latest common share price fell to 83 cents, meaning it could be facing the possibility of being de-listed. However, I believe it has a good chance to survive in spite of the fact it's primarily a drybulk shipper, (currently a horrendous segment of the shipping sector) it's also a holding company invested in subsidiaries Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE:NNA), Navios Maritime Partners , Navios South American Logistics (NSAL), and Navios Maritime Midstream Partners (NYSE:NAP), which through an assorted combination of potential mergers, distributions, and/or loans might be able to keep NM afloat during these troubled times. This is quite possible because NM CEO Angeliki Frangou virtually controls the boards of all the subsidiaries.
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Currently, NM PRH is trading at $3.05/share and NM PRG at $3.49, each offering a tremendous yield and upside potential. If and when the drybulk market solidifies, the preferred share price may near its normal trading range of around $25.00 per share. Beyond the volatility in the market the recent suspension of dividends for both common and preferred shares has resulted in the remarkably low share prices. However, the preferred dividend payments are cumulative and all missed payments will have to be completely made up before common shareholders can begin receiving dividends again.
Risk/reward? I see relatively little risk at the current prices should the company go belly-up. However the upside reward is tremendous offering incredibly high yield percentage and enormous price appreciation share appreciation should the drybulk sector stabilize and the company survive. Although this might take years, remember, should the company survive and prosper, all those missed dividend payments will be accruing and will have to be paid sometime in the future.
As outlined below, Navios has plans to weather the extremely challenging conditions facing today's drybulk shippers.
In conclusion, Navios has acted proactively to deal with the extreme volatility of a very challenging drybulk market. As mentioned above, the dividend suspension of both the common and preferred shares will save the company $41 million annually. They had approximately $177 million dollars in cash at the end of December; however, they are burning cash at a great rate, which is concerning. I like that all their logistics are handled in-house and their operating efficiency at 41% is below the industry average. In addition, NM has no bond payments due until 2019, and those bonds are unsecured. The first secured bond payments are not due until 2022. I first became interested in Navios when I learned of their extensive sources of credit and their ability to borrow money at terms, also, below the industry average. Considering the current bargain-basement pricing and the tremendous upside, I believe a reasonable investment, according to your investment criteria, might prove profitable over the long term.
Finally, for those still to wary of a preferred investment, I suggest researching Navios' bonds, which are a killer buy at present.
Disclosure: I am/we are long NM-H, NM-G, NM BONDS.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Very nice follow-through!! I guess earning still does mean something after-all!!! Lolzzz
Thank you, Clay !!!
I'm in !
.87 possible bounce on the 10 day MA
If it falls below .87.... Looking for bounce on .80
If it falls below .80.... Use caution....
That's where she 'fell off a cliff' more or less...so it's a good target as it will be where resistance lies.
Company just logged some serious revenues and beat by a mile. IMO, the 1.40's will look like chump change in a couple months.
Trade wisely. Very happy with my 8's. Thought she was going to 'stagnate', but came out of a meeting and BAMM!!!
$NM
* * $NM Video Chart 05-25-16 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
I understand.
Decent profit for you already.
However, I feel uneasy trading on my Gut.
I may pick shares up on the dip.
Best of luck
Same gut feeling that brought me to buy at .64 yesterday.
Strong buys at the close.
Would be great to see this momentum carry though in the AM.
Good luck to all.
What DD leads you to that thought?
Can we hold at this price.....
Waiting to see.....
NM will be 1.40/sh by next week. IMO
NM will be 1.40/sh by next week. IMO
Looks like NM is back on track. I'm thinking this might be a good stock to hold on for a while. Is it possible for this to get back to $1+ range?
Cool, I picked up some yesterday at .64 figuring it was a bargain. Glad my intuition was right. Thanks for the info. I didnt realize that dry bulk index is rallying. Is it true that they are going to be paying dividends?
Looks like pre-market volume and price action bullish. :) Glad I'm long
Conference call going on as I type this:
Navios Maritime Partner paying millions in dividends this year and next. Chinese economy picking up first time since last summer. Steel scrapping orders coming in. Fleet 7% younger than average. 50+ vessels in operation making $$$$ Largest dry bulk business past 60 years. Good cash flow compared to last year. Reduction in debt. Dry Bulk Index on a rally.
I'm long.
Anything going on here. Lots of volume yesterday
Conference call could boost this stock just like it did earlier this year. Another 90%+ runner?? ;)
$24M in profit in Q1 and the stock is just chilling. Time to load up and make some good money for the summertime vacation!
Yahoo Finance Earnings report- Navios Maritime 04/20/2016
Good move. I'm out of powder myself but am eyeing this for more shares. Way "over-corrected".
Slapped the ask this morning for a bunch of shares! Would buy even more if I had funds available! Ready to ride this up yet again!
Time for reversal. Hit bottom...Back up the ladder.
NM vs FREE(It's industry comparison)
NM and FREE are in THE SAME sector.
NM= $1.74 per share, its 52 wk high= $4.68
FREE= $0.0175 per share, FREE 52 wk high= $70.83.With a 52 week high of $70.83, FREE has plenty of room to run higher from these levels.
1.68-$2.00 seems reasonable 20? gain. Imo
Seeking alpha is getting on the dry bulk new bull market rally story
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3336185-dryships-welcome-to-the-new-dry-bulk-bull-market
I agree there is a cyclical nature to the DBI. However, I think the recent plunge scared the crap out of less confident/capable overinvested/overborrowed shippers which I think is likely a majority out there. I doubt you'll ever see the kind of new build investment we've had over the last few years ever again. The stategies going forward for most of these higher cost shippers will be to stay in business and that means consolidation not finance new builds. Many shippers were likely looking at bankruptcy over the last 6-8 months and must feel like they've been given a second chance.
In other woords I hate to give a 100% gain on a cyclical stock.
I think NM fits that menu to a real T!!!
I have been doing this for 40 years and I have defaulted to 90% buy and hold like Warren Buffet style as the big hedge funds control the trading games and we have no chance against them. I would only trade NM as it is cyclical (the charts show the DBI shipping cycles) and we might see a nice 2-3 month rally then a profit taking, DBI cycle slide reset. It might be a great long term hold for 5 years, but not sure the BDI is done seeing the nasty decay of an overbuilt fleet of ships going after less business with too many ships for now.
Im afaid I don't have private message. I wish I had the time to trade stocks or learn trading techniques. I like industry leaders under $5 with underrated management that have gotten hammered.
Here is where I shared your BDI index break news on NM here. It is one place the charts I requested on NM and BDI-index might show up soon.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=115498948
I sold out of my dry bulk stock positions at the highs about 3-4 years ago. But the recent nasty 30 year BDI-index lows may have made the ones that will not go BK great deals, like NM and its general partner Nmm.
The BDI index (it is BDI not DBI IIRC?) is cyclical, and the China lossing of money the last 8 weeks at the bottom, and record lows for coal, iron ore and copper may have spiked some spot market restocking orders for China invesntory, and the silk road plans by China should be a huge boost long term to the BDI as well as the rush of fresh cash into China by the central bank to prop up the mainland stock market etc. Only question is have the stocks also rallied already, and all peaked or not and are there lurking deals to sell new shares during the run up in the wings.
I just looked a Prgn and it seems to have rallied up 100% in the last 2-3 weks already, but it was down from about $5 to about .50 this year and is now only back up to about $1, so not sure where it goes from here. Friend of mine may do us some charts on My Ecomike DD charts board or on the other site he mods (chart board) and I will share them here when they are done. I asked for NM and Nmm charts and maybe a BDI chart and maybe a Dyrs chart, although I do not trust that scam artist CEO at Drys.
NM has survived the test of time well!!!
I'm not entirely sure why the DBI is rising or why it is rising so rapidly. At 509 which I think was the low, (30 year low),just a few months ago, the number represented losing money for any shipper going to contract to move goods. This caused panic and new build orders to be cancelled and some shippers to warehouse vessels.
If nothing else, if the DBI stays near 1000 NM's dividend should be secured indefinitely. This should be attractive to longer term investors.
As well, Angeliki is looking like a genius here for scooping up several ships in foreclosure over the last few months.
Hmm does that make NM and Nmm a buy here or do they have other issues pending? They both still pay nice dividends right?
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 14.10
Median Target: 16.00
High Target: 17.00
Low Target: 6.50
DBI breals 1000.
Interesting and thanks!!!!!
DBI closing in on 900.
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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM)
http://www.navios.com/home.asp
Quotes & News
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=NM+NM-WT
Profile
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.
85 Akti Miouli Street
Piraeus, 185 38
Greece - Map
Phone: 30 210 41 72 050
Fax: 30 210 41 72 070
Web Site: http://www.navios.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NM
Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc., a seaborne shipping company, offers carriage, trading, storing, and other related logistics for international dry bulk cargo transportation. As of December 31, 2006, Navios owned 10 Ultra-Handymax (50,000 dwt-55,000 dwt), 9 Panamax (70,000 dwt-83,000 dwt), 1 Capesize (approximately 100,000 dwt) and 1 Handysize (10,000 dwt-30,000 dwt) product tanker vessels. It also time charters in and operates a fleet of 4 Ultra-Handymax, 1 Handysize, 14 Panamax, and 5 Capesize vessels under long-term time charters. The company serves raw materials producers, agricultural traders and exporters, industrial end-users, shipowners, and charterers. It also owns and operates bulk transfer and storage port facility in Uruguay. The company was formerly known as Nautilus Maritime Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc. in 2003. The company is headquartered in Piraeus, Greece.
Contact Information
Primary IR Contact
Thomas J. Rozycki, Jr.
Vice President
Cubitt Jacobs & Prosek Communications
Phone: 212-279-8820
Email: investors@navios.com
Transfer Agent:
Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company
17 Battery Place • New York, NY 10004
212.509.4000
E-Mail General – cstmail @continentalstock.com
Shares Outstanding: 95.748M
Float: 72.489M
BDI Rates
http://www.skaarupshipbrokers.com/index.php
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Price Target
12/2007 20.06 37.36%
12/2008 28.42 94.60%
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/SRWTarget.asp?Symbol=NM
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 14.10
Median Target: 16.00
High Target: 17.00
Low Target: 6.50
No. of Brokers: 5
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=NM
1 month daily chart
6 month daily chart
2 year weekly chart
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