Nasty Dooshers (short selling) (DOOSH)

[Estimated_Prophet]

Short SPX 1299.65~~~ES 1303.25

[sllabxam]

Bought to open $30 Sept. puts on CRM...(crmuf)

[zenvesting]

I'd call that a miss if they needed to exclude GAAP items to meet the target.....and forecasting 0.21 for FY07 is all that much more exciting to me for a $30 stock.

But when playing these mid-cap stocks, I know I'm at the mercy of the motives of the big money.....that are commonly contrary to the instincts of logic or value.....so I manage my risk appropriately.

I think it will prove to be a good short eventually.

[Guy]

Zen, CRM didn't miss. Analysts, on average, expected
CRM to post a profit of 4 cents a share on revenue of $114 million. Excluding the costs of stock options and other items, the company would have posted a profit of 6 cents a share and revenues were $118 million.
The results doesn't change the fact that the stock is way overpriced.

Guy

[zenvesting]

Livin,

I don't short. I gambled and bought some $25 Aug puts for 40 cents, so I'm likely going to lose all of that.....unless it falls below $24.60 by Friday.....which isn't looking too likely!

But I don't think this gain will hold long. If I had done a bit more thorough DD, I would have noticed the spike then sell-off trend of the past 2 quarters....and waited to buy some Sept. puts until tomorrow on the spike. In any case, I don't think this gain will hold long, but probably long enough to screw my position, lol!

[Livintilidie]

zen...

i agree on CRM. Came in with less than incredible earnings. Yet stock is stil up nicely ah's. I grabbed some short at 30.95 as i think it will see be under 30 this week or next...looking for 27.

I assume you grabbed some short shares on your mention . You adding here above 30?

peace

Livin

[zenvesting]

CRM misses the analyst estimates and goes up.....maybe the markets really are changing directions again now? Damn!

[researcher59]

Zen: great call on DAKT ! I checked it out after your post and thought it was a potential short play, but decided against it because they easily beat estimates in Q1, and the consensus Q2 estimate seemed beatable ....

Wish I hadn't been so cautious !

[zenvesting]

CRM: looks way over valued by all measures...P/S = 9, P/B = 15, Forward P/E = 67

Insider selling has been pretty relentless recently:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CRM

I don't know if the big money will try to hold it up or not, but hope they're the ones buying those puts with me today. 5,000 contracts of volume today.....where the open interest was 12,293 prior to today?

Also, from my novice opinion, it looks like the calls are being sold....or at least most of them are currently priced at the bid.

[zenvesting]

CRM looks like one due for an earnings reality check. There's been a lot of volume on the Aug $25 puts, now going for $0.40 a contract....looks sort of tempting...hmmm.

EDIT: I did it....20 contracts worth......nothing I couldn't afford to see wiped away.....but it does look like it could be the target of the next vicious earnings sell-off of the season.

Just hope my internet connection stays up?

[zenvesting]

NGPS might be a bit over extended. Not an earnings play....just one that might be due for a reality check?

[sllabxam]

Great call Zen. Get that internet service back fast.

[Estimated_Prophet]

WHOA!!!!!!!!!!! Nice call, figured they couldn't meet those expectations, but options on earnings are such a huge gamble, but it pays off if your right.

[zenvesting]

run, unfortunately it's been easier to find a loser than a winner lately.....so it seams that would be the way to play these days.

I'm glad to return the favor for your MED pick :)

[zenvesting]

Yep, the options I was sizing up were the Aug $27.50 puts (QKCTY)....and they're up 750% now.

MCI please turn my DSL off at this instant to end this pain you caused me!

[zenvesting]

DAKT down 30% to $21.39 in pre-market.....damn!

....and my freaking internet connection is still working....should, coulda, woulda! But to make a play like that when you don't know when your internet connection is going to be cut would have been crazy.....and I'm not that much of a lunatic! :)

But I just signed-up for Verizon FiOS, so I'll have 15 down / 2 up when they connect me at the end of August.

[run168]

DAKT -- earned only 0.12 vs.0.11, its down already over $8 (-26%) pre-market, nice find ZEN, thanks a lot for mentioning it yesterday!

[zenvesting]

Just sold MEDTW for $5.40....a 4-bagger from yesterdays buy of $1.05

[Estimated_Prophet]

DAKT~would be tough to meet those expectations! See ya in two weeks.

[run168]

ZEN--DAKT looks ready to trend down from here, I just shorted a few at 30.74.

[zenvesting]

DAKT next? Looks like another potential candidate to get hammered on earnings.

But my DSL connection gets cut-off today, so I won't be playing it.

I probably won't be around for the next week or two because of the DSL connection issues. The freaking FCC won't let Verizon sign me up for DSL while I still have my MCI DSL connection.....although MCI is discontinuing my service. But they will let me sign up for Verizon FiOS, which is exactly why MCI (now owned by Verizon) is canceling DSL service in my area. Stupid government.

Anywho, see yinz in a couple of weeks.

[Estimated_Prophet]

Very nice play Zen!!!!!

[researcher59]

Zen: MED down to 13.50 after hours. Congrats on those PUTs .... I meant to followup on run168's post on the VMC board, but unfortunately didn't get the time. I might have shorted a few myself if I'd done it !

[zenvesting]

MED @ $14.50 in AH, so those Aug '06 $17.5 puts are now $3 in the money. Would be nice to get $3.15 for them tomorrow for a 2-bagger.

Options are dangerous, but man they can be fun when you're right! :)

[zenvesting]

Just bought 5 MEDTW for $1.05. I think it's headed down on earnings after the close today, but it won't kill me to be wrong.

[zenvesting]

MEDTW, the Aug. '06 $17.50 puts are selling for $1.15 now....and were as low as $0.75 earlier today. I'll bet those buying them for $0.75 today will look pretty smart tomorrow....damn!

Just looked and noticed NTRI's revenue dropped in the second quarter....and they were also advertising relentlessly. I think anything short of 20% revenue growth could cause a sell off in MED with their relatively frothy valuation at this point.

I'll probably be back to kick myself tomorrow.

[zenvesting]

MED might be an interesting one to watch for a doosh. They're reporting earnings after the close today. Based on last quarter's results, they've got a forward P/E of 33. While they did show some exceptional growth last quarter and seam to have continued heavy advertising this quarter, it seams the odds may be stacked against them beating expectations....or getting a possitive reaction in this market climate.

But it's a bit more of a gamble than I want to take, so I'll just watch from the sidelines.....

[zenvesting]

tech,

Thanks for noticing, I sort of felt like I was talking to myself about these two stocks over the past few months :)

I got in early on both of them and I'm still hanging on to both of them.....because I think these companies can live up to the expectations that are built into their current stock prices. I got into PHLI around $0.90 and TMED around $1.

Technically, I think they're both probably due for some consolidation......possibly until their results begin to live up to the expectations (I realize that's more of a fundamental view than a technical view....but that's about as technical as I get).

Fundamentally, I don't think either of them have reached unreasonable valuations yet.

PHLI: PHLI has a market cap of about $25M (fully diluted)....and a P/S of about 4. Motts has just begun some print advertising for Accelerade....and I think Accelerade sales should benefit from the added exposure. I've tried Accelerade and Accel gel myself and believe it's claims of increased endurance and muscle recovery.....and believe it could have a much larger market share of the sports drink market if marketed more aggressively, which I believe Motts will do eventually. I also like the new diet product, Satiatrim, being introduced this fall.

TMED: A similar case. Lumenis has a large base of HoLAP lasers installed at hospitals around the world....and now TMED's new fiber enables those lasers to be used for BPH procedures. With BSX taking care of the sales and marketing, I think TMED's sales should begin to grow significantly next year.....and with a good early entry-point in the stock....I'm willing to hang on and see how it all develops.

P.S.: Hope all is going well for you and your family. It would have been nice to have met-up again at the BIPH shareholder meeting, but I really lost my interest in Weiner's "fish stories" for now.....but I really hope he can reel-in that Sturgeon at BSX that's he's been telling everyone about over the past couple years.

[techisbest]

Zen: How are you feeling about your PHLI and TMED after their recent runs?



This one could run again?




Looks like it needs a breather?

[jjkool_01]

ERES short 8.40>covered 1/2 7.50

[Estimated_Prophet]

Zen, hmmmmmm placebo or real? I'll have to give it a go. I play indoor soccer, and hadn't played in over a year. Tough to keep stamina the whole game, so I'll have to see if that works.

So funny about the cigarrette run, lol.

Sounds good on INB, just thought I'd mention it since it was in that sector and I saw it on the shelves. As usualy, you are already on top of it :)

[jjkool_01]

ERES:Short 8.40, earnings after close. Warned. This statement below tells me to short it as they will guide lower for the year. I like the company's future but playing the anticipated swing. It fell to 6.83 on the announcement from 8.55.

'Due to the relatively fixed nature of the operating expenses, the percentage impact on earnings per share will be greater than on revenue. Due to these results, the new management is currently reassessing prior full year 2006 guidance and plans to provide an update in connection with the second quarter conference call.'

[zenvesting]

Hey EP! Not much new and exciting here. I've been pretty cautious about taking new positions this summer. EZEN, PHLI, and TMED are the only stocks I'm holding right now. I'm also holding some uncovered puts on the QQQQ's. It seams good shorts have been easier to identify than good longs for the past few months......so I'm surprised this board isn't seeing more activity.

Cadbury Schweppes hasn't introduced the ready to drink Accelerade yet, but they have begun advertising in a few publications, so I don't think it will be long before they get the product on the shelves. If you don't mind mixing-up some Accelerade yourself, the Accelerade website has a retailer locator where you can find the powder concentrate:
http://www.accelerade.com/us_retailers.php

I bought a canister of the fruit punch flavored stuff....it's not the greatest tasting sports drink; but it's not terrible either IMO. I've been drinking a lot of it when exercising because I'd swear the stuff really does work better than Gatorade or Powerade. While I don't claim to be a finely-tuned physical specimen, I do think it gives me a bit more energy during exercise....and I'm convinced it does actually reduce muscle soreness the next day.

I was at the Pedros Mountain Bike Festival in Massachusets this past weekend and probably drank a couple gallons of Accelerade to keep my lazy, unconditioned body moving for 40 miles of riding in two days. It was insanely hot....and insanely muddy....which causes one to waste a lot of energy spinning their tires in the mud. The irony of the weekend was that my longest ride was down to a convenience store to buy a pack of cigarettes.....sad but true.

INB.....I haven't done much DD on them recently....and it's been a couple of years since I last owned it. But before I buy, I'd like to know what the status of their contract with Herbalife is. As I recall, that's worth about $20M a year to them. Okay....I went and looked it up in their 10K....it expires at the end of this year....unless renewed. I don't think I'd be too inclined to buy INB until I saw a renewal announcement from Herbalife:

Development and Supply Agreement

On March 13, 1998, the Company signed a development and supply agreement with
Herbalife International of America, Inc. ("Herbalife") whereby the Company
develops, manufactures and supplies certain nutritional products to Herbalife,
which agreement was renewed through December 31, 2006. The agreement provides
that Herbalife is required to purchase a minimum quantity of supplied products
each year of $18,000,000 for the term of the agreement. If Herbalife purchases
the minimum amount, then Herbalife will be entitled to certain rebates of an
amount not exceeding $300,000 per year. For the fiscal years ended June 30, 2005
and 2004, there were no rebates due.

Risk of Reduction of Significant Revenues from Major Customer

The Company derives a significant portion of its sales from two customers. For
the years ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 approximately 76% and 71% respectively
were derived from these two customers. For the year ended June 30, 2005 the two
customers accounted for 37% and 39% of sales and 58% and 13% for the year ended
June 30, 2004. Accounts receivable from these customers comprised approximately
64% and 47% of total accounts receivable at June 30, 2005 and 2004,
respectively. The loss of either customer would have an adverse affect on the
Company's operations.

[Estimated_Prophet]

Nice call as well jjkool!

[Estimated_Prophet]

Yep, had just gone back and noticed that the other day. What's up Zen? PHLI doing great! Wish I could try some of that Accelerade. Beverages have been pretty hot this year, might watch INB. They had a pretty good display at Costco for their new beverages.

Peace.

[zenvesting]

nice call

[jjkool_01]

ROS
MOSCOW, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The liberalisation of Russia's telecoms market has halved the net profit of former long-distance monopoly Rostelekom (RTKM.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research), the firm said on Tuesday, an even bigger hit than analysts expected.

Rostelekom said first-half net profit, calculated to Russian accounting standards, fell 53 percent to 2.7 billion roubles ($100.7 million) compared with the same period a year ago. Some analysts said expectations had been for net profit to be over $130 million.

Rostelekom this year lost its monopoly on long-distance and international phone calls from Russia, and although it does not yet have any active rivals, several companies have received long-distance licences since the start of 2006.

In addition to adding the risk of competition, the reforms have also spurred a massive rise in expenditure, with changes in the system of payments to other operators driving costs up by 90 percent to 24.79 billion roubles.

Under the reforms, Rostelekom also has to compensate regional telecoms providers, which have reported healthy results by comparison, for low long-distance and international tariffs, which are set by the government.

Although Rostelekom's revenue rose 47.2 percent to 28.7 billion roubles, earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation fell to 5.5 billion roubles from 7.7 billion. EBITDA margin, a key figure showing a company's efficiency, dropped to 19.1 percent from 39.7 percent.

Despite the poor performance, Rostelekom's shares (RTKM.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) were 2.9 percent up at 137.32 roubles by 1233 GMT. "When such figures are announced, it is clear that the share price movement is not at all related to the fundamentals of the business," said UBS analyst Vladimir Postolovsky.

He also said that he was worried by a 1 percent fall in long-distance traffic in the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2005.

"This is either the onset of competition or mobile cannibalisation," he said, referring to competition from the huge numbers of mobile phones in use in Russia.

MDM bank analyst Yelena Bazhenova said a 20 percent fall in the share price of Golden Telecom (GLDN.O: Quote, Profile, Research), in which Rostelekom owns 11 percent, also affected Rostelekom's net profit.

"But even if you take all these reasons into consideration, net profit is still too low," Bazhenova said.

Rostelekom this year increased capex 70 percent to $350 million.

"The company is efficient enough, it should not have so much spending," Bazhenova said. "It is not clear at all where they spend it and costs do not fit any model. The company would not explain anything."

Bank of Moscow said it expected Rostelekom's results would worsen as real competition on the long-distance market starts from next year. It said in a research note it expected Rostelekom to lose up to 40 percent of its market share.

[jjkool_01]

ROS: good short here $30.00.

[wyobuford]

MRVL trading near the top of its decending channel...bottom of channel just under 45 and dropping at this point.


Buford T.

[zenvesting]

Most of the dooshers I was watching already took a pretty good hit. I thought NTRI looked pretty over valued a couple weeks ago, but was afraid to make the call.

WBSN was also a screaming doosh over the past few months, but not here.

I'm still not so keen on NFLX. Earnings are beefed-up by a big tax benefit, margins aren't that great, and competition is growing. But the market at large seams to like them because they're doing relatively better than BBI. But if you back out the tax benefit they've got a P/E above 90....and I don't think they'll maintain that valuation forever.

[carguy]

Waiting for the floor to drop on MATK!

[sllabxam]

Hmmmm closet dooosher!

[wyobuford]

SIMC...Not a doosher myself, but if I were, I'd take SIMC now. Would not think that mid-9's would be out of the question, but be weary of a big bounce if you try to ride it too low.


Buford T.

[shmolton]

I'd say $300 million is a big money vote of confidence in the future of the company.

[babycakes]

I am baffled how the public has decided 1.10 is fair value after announcing 300 million dollar dillution.....

[Estimated_Prophet]

Samso, samson, SAMSONITE!

[babycakes]

boy was I waaaaaaay off on that one

[shmolton]

MDS

[Estimated_Prophet]

BMRN~13.50 should remain resisatnce now after that ugly topping pattern and heavier selling today. Once/if it gets under 12.50, it should drop quickly to 10.50-11.00.

[Estimated_Prophet]

ATML~3.75-4.00 target, with 50 dema should hold on closing basis.