Nasty Dooshers (short selling) (DOOSH)

[wyobuford]

CROX- Rumors of BK were rampant not long ago. The chart is looking like it wants to drop here, plus there is a nasty gap there from 4.25ish to 5.25ish. Looks like 4.25 (and probably lower) is begging to be hit here imo.

Plus, no posts on the board for a year!! It was time to brush the dust off this board.


Buford T.>

[techisbest]

The U.S. Economy.

[cl001]

Yes, as a hedge.

[crk]

cl, are you into shorting financials these days?

[cl001]

Hay guys, how do you like WABC, a California bank trading at 3x book? They own a lot of FMN and FRE preferred shares.

[zenvesting]

FINALLY CRM gets a dose of reality, there should be a lot more downside from here....so I'm still hanging on to my puts....which are just a little more than break even now due to the loss of time premium over the past 6 months or so.

[zenvesting]

CRM: latinblood, it looks like today's CRM/GOOG news didn't cause much frenzied enthusiasm....and the sellers outnumbered the buyer of this news.

There just doesn't seam to be much benefit in this deal for CRM IMO. The AP news said Google Aps sold less than $200M last year.

Then, as you said, others are following suit. I expect that the premium the market has been willing to give CRM as the innovator might come crashing down as the competition mounts it's campaign to innovate. ORCL is inovating, SAP is innovating, and MSFT is pricing their SaaS CRM at a 50% discount to CRMs. I would expect to see growth continue to slow...and margins to erode....and that's why I'm short by owning the Jan '09 $55 Puts.

The double top in the chart looks to be shaping up nicely to.

[zenvesting]

It figures, the time I was getting the most worried about my short position in CRM was actually a great time to be adding to it.

The chart looks like it might be shaping up to form a double top here. If the news Monday isn't something that points directly to substantial future revenue growth, the pattern could play out well.

I thinking I'll stick it out through Monday, rather than trying to reposition then.

[latin blood]

There is one thing a CEO fears: competitors that have a different business model. It seems CRM has been effectively leading in a practical way this new business model and now others are following suit... As hard as it is to accept it, the market is willing to pay such a high premium for this company - I'm watching to see if after 2 failures shorting it I could have a successful transaction on it.

[researcher59]

Zen: thanks for the info .... I'll probably stay short, but it might be a mistake. The stock could get pushed higher by frenzied enthusiasm, though it seems that the revenue and earnings growth will have to be enormous to justify the lofty stock price.

[zenvesting]

researcher59, I'm not sure if you're still short CRM; but I figured this blog entry might interest you if you were. It popped up on E-Trade this afternoon.

Apparently, this blogger heard rumor that CRM is going to announce the integration of Google Apps on April 14th. News like this might cause even more irrational exuberance to drive CRM higher. I'm still considering what to do with my puts. While I doubt this will result in any significant new revenue for CRM, I could see the momentum crowd getting all worked up over this.....and start trying to push CRM up to a similar stock price to that of GOOG or something, lol!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/71596-watch-for-google-apps-salesforce-to-integrate?source=etrade

So there could be an even better entry for a long term short coming soon? I mean CRMs fundamentals have peaked, they are losing their first to market advantage as we speak.....with Microsoft introducing SaaS with target prices at a 50% discount to CRM....and Oracle and SAP also entering the market this year....CRM's growth is going to slow...and their margins are going to get squeezed....but it's just a matter of when the market will stop pricing it like it's the Holy Grail.

Then again, on technicals, the chart looks like it could be forming a double top here......hmmm....what to do?

[zenvesting]

CRM: Yeah, longs argue the company's growth justifies that crazy multiple; but I just don't think it's going to last in this market.

That's not to mention that Oracle, Microsoft, and SAP are gunning right at CRM now......which tells me they're going to be extremely challenged to sustain their current growth rates in the coming quarters.

It's crazy....and the big funds are keeping it propped up here....but I feel pretty certain it will collapse eventually....I just don't think it can grow into this price anytime soon.

[seeksup]

CRM: Jeez... Yahoo's hist. P/E now reading 388.. forward at 91...

[zenvesting]

CRM: Trying this again one year later. Just bought the Jan '09 $55 puts for $7.90. That means I need CRM to drop to $47 by Jan '09 for these puts to be in the money.

I think the valuation is whacky with a forward P/E of 200+....and think the stock should get whacked back down to reality some time over the next nine months.

[downtimepg]

rwt

Redwood Trust 2Q EPS 41c Vs EPS $1.20 >RWT

[zenvesting]

CRM appears to have broken the uptrend....and current valuation is pretty whacky....should still make a decent short from here.

[jjkool_01]

JRJC a great short above $5 IMO. Bloated on China pop. Real POS company. Current $5.20

[Estimated_Prophet]

Based on some people I read, and my own look at the charts, I think one should wait a little longer before doing so. Should top out within a few weeks, but not sure if market can make new highs during this period or not. Curious to see how well the bulls can do here during this fight back period they have just started today.

[shmolton]

I like the QID...

[techisbest]

Is it time to plunk money into one of the RYDEX inverse funds?

http://www.rydexfunds.com/ourproducts/Productdetail.htm?csp=78356A699#



Or not?

http://www.rydexfunds.com/ourproducts/Productdetail.htm?csp=783554421#

[Livintilidie]

UARM looks about ready to drop the ball... I'm in short unless today's high is broken...... for swing....looking for 40.

Peace

Livin

[Estimated_Prophet]

Bought a little QID here as the COMPQ gapped up to resistance, and breaks first level support(yellow). As long as below resistance, will stay short.

[patiencepays0]

Thanks Zen.. This market is alot tougher than I anticipated. Seems as though you almost have to be "in the know" to make any real money. Cya

[zenvesting]

Patience I don't short either, I buy uncovered puts, which is a very high risk "bet" that a stock is going to drop before the expiration of the options.

You really shouldn't try either shorting or buying uncovered puts until you understand the risks associated with both a bit more.

But basically when you short a stock, you're selling a stock you don't own, with the hope of buying it back later (covering) at a cheaper price. So your broker needs to have shares available to "lend" you.....and you also need to have a margin account open because the risk of a stock going higher will put you in the hole. When you short, the best possible gain is 100% (if a stock goes to zero), but the potential losses are infinate...if a stock goes to infinity (in theory).

When you buy uncovered puts, you're only risking the amount you pay for the options. But options are leveraged investments, so a small move in the stock price can cause a big move in the options.

If you're really interested, you should read-up on Investopedia.com about shorting and options.

Before you jump into the shark tank, you might try making a few "paper trades" just to see how it goes.

Buying uncovered puts is definately more stressful than being long in a stock, but it's the best strategy I know to try to make some money in a down market.

[patiencepays0]

ZEN... I have never shorted a stock, and it seems the complete opposite of investing. Anyway, how is it done?? I have no clue. Should I try it, and can you give me some pointers? Thanks

[zenvesting]

RHAT took a dive....it's looking like it could be another one of those kind of earnings seasons for technology stocks.

CRM sure seams to be ripening-up for a good short play on their next earnings report.

[zenvesting]

I still think the short side of the market is going to be the better side to be on going into this fall and winter.

IIG reports today. Although they look like a value, there's a lot of allegations of fraud out there on them. It should be an interesting to watch at least....but I don't think I'm going to play it.

UARM is anoher overvalued target I'll be watching. While it has come down a good bit in the past couple of months, it still has a very frothy P/E of 60 for a clothing manufacturer.

[Estimated_Prophet]

Thank you Zen.

[zenvesting]

CRM: Nice call EP.

[zenvesting]

RMBS looks fundamentally overvalued. Chart also looks pretty bad as it has failed to break the 50 DMA:

[sllabxam]

I hope you are right. I am even on some under on others, but I bought more puts Thursday afternoon before it started the drop.

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think it's time to short CRM, I give it the stamp of approval now. Maybe Tuesday is best if you are going to buy puts on it to minimize any time decay, but I think the indicators are finally topped out.

[zenvesting]

Just back from "Vabeeothchay". Fiber is now hooked-up and all systems are a "go".

.....so where's the action?

[Estimated_Prophet]

Zen~I've seen these gaps up hold for a couple weeks many times. Might be to screw the puts, maybe too many shorts propping it up with cover bids, I don't know. I think if you got some puts with plenty of time, they'll work out.

[zenvesting]

CRM seams to be getting "propped up" by the big money. It's pretty obvious manipulation if you ask me. Eventually it's going to collapse.....just a question of when IMO.

[blasher]

CRM . . . looking for it to break the key support level of 33

our Put options should really jump then!

[zenvesting]

yup, there it goes.

[blasher]

I bought November Puts . . . ...

I don't mind at all paying for a little time ...
because I really hate losing money to decaying time for having an expiration too close!

November seems like the right balance to me ... also good liquidity .. very important !!

It will be falling today for sure ...
depending on the close today will determine tomorrow.

good luck !!!

[zenvesting]

CRM is holding up pretty well. What expirations do you think are the best for buying some puts? I was obviously wrong on my first try with August expirations....as I was expecting it to nose dive like DAKT and MED did last week.

But CRM seams to have some support from big money holding it up.....while the CEO is dumping. How long do ou think they can hold it up?

Novembers don't look bad.....but could it break down before then? I hate paying too much time premium.

[blasher]

great! move . . . .

thanks again for this alert, my friend !!

[sllabxam]

I grabbed nov $35 puts several times myself.

[blasher]

CRM . . . . beautiful !!

nice closing tombstone-doji candle today ... should fall hard tomorrow!
( I bought discounted Puts on every mini-rally today )

[blasher]

YES! ... I loved this AM . . . ...

CRM rallied early, giving me the chance to Buy Puts at even cheaper prices !!

Down it has been coming now .. after I bought the Puts ...
already profitable for me.

down CRM , down . . . ..

good luck my friend !!

[sllabxam]

Well that was fun this early a.m.. The volume is tailing of at this high sp. I still believe a big drop is coming.

[blasher]

I'll be joining you today on CRM Max ...
I'll be using either November or January Puts ...
whichever shows itself to be more liquid today.

Like I'm doing with AKAM, these outrageous,
high-volume gaps on news usually mark reversals
from the direction they jump.

Like everything, time will tell.
Thanks for alerting me to this good-looking trade!

[sllabxam]

I didn't think the financials were great. The Company valuation is ridiculous. The run up unreal. The CEO announces selling 5mil shares and the stock hasn't crashed yet. Go figure. I bought at about the high and am hanging on for a drop. max

[zenvesting]

CRM is still hanging on to it's gain with some good news about joint-marketing with Google.

I don't know exactly when, but I'm pretty sure CRM will make a good short some time before the end of the year.....hopefully by September 15th for your sake!

As I said before, options are gambles, so only play with what you can afford to lose.

[zenvesting]

Looks like those boards are just getting off the ground. Why reinvent the wheel?

[mikeanthony]

Love shorting check out the hublink. Keep up the shorts. Or keep your shorts down lol glta.

[Estimated_Prophet]

Out ES 1300.50 to protect a few points, even though it probably has further to fall.