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Nvidia share price LOW POLE REVERSAL today on 2-July-2024. That pretty much says share price is now ready to move.
We shall see.
Cheers and GLTA
I say don't sell to France. Let them have AMD & Intel.
It’s quite remarkable that the French constantly try to rape American companies that bring innovative Technology to the world. They must think everything should be open sourced for all to pillage. NVDA developed AI. They not only make the finest hardware but have the most pristine and seamless software for the hardware to function economically.
Because others don’t know how to make the “secret sauce” let’s punish them and, by doing so, get a lot of free Francs as well. Screw France….at least the Chinese try to reverse engineer it.
How can you have an anti-competitive product, when there’s nothing like it on the market? Just a money grabbing effort
And the last two are questionable, at best.
Exactly! That wouldn't hurt the bottom line of NVDA, at all.
lol. No. German ancestry, born in Missouri. Just a bit younger than the 1800’s.
You sound like an Englishman from the 1800's...we are onto you time traveler.
Not trying to be racist but the French don’t like the French. I was formerly a VP of an American power transmission company that was bought by a French company. It was FUBAR instantaneously. My experience taught me they are deceitful, dishonest and unethical. Done
The only things of value France has provided us was last minute support in the Revolutionary War, Statue of Liberty, wine, champagne, cheese, Puegoets and Renaults
NVDA should tell France to pound salt and get their AI systems elsewhere
France has done this to every major tech company. I think that if Trump was currently in power he would threaten them with tariffs on their exports to the USA and that would solve this, once and for all. If only…..
I agree 1000000%
geez u could make a money dress , get your green on
Money moving to Tesla but it will balance out
I agree with you that a big market correction is coming. However, those in power will manipulate the economy to push it out after the election. They don't want a crash prior to the election, as that hurts their chances of getting elected.
If they lose the election, they would be fine with handing the next guy a recession or depression.
Just watch - this administration will cut the interest rates before the election to artificially stimulate the economy, right before the election. They will be trading a short term jolt to the economy for long term stability, but they don't care about that. That will cause more inflation and they won't have many tools left to control it with, as the rates will already be low.
But in the meantime, make profits here, until it all comes tumbling down.
I never posted a time or date, but if you want me to I will say next 90 days. Before the election
France raiding NVIDIA's offices and looking to slap then with fines for anti competitive practices is a joke.
Their country should have been left to the Germans in WW2. They have no use for Western practices, and look to milk companies based out of other countries for $$$. They look at these big companies and see an opportunity, as apparently its the company's fault that nobody can come close to what they provide.
Your predictions have never been accurate. You have been screaming 90s for a month and we hit $135. lol. We made money while your predictions were wrong. Take a seat, class is in session for the jr investors. Lol
My prediction of 95.00 still stands, not because of the company but my thoughts have been that a huge correction is on the way. And now JP Morgan is predicting the same thing.
Market crash!. I think it’s only a matter of when and not if.
Be ready is all I am saying
REVERSAL DAY ALERT! 118.83 lod will now NOT be breached imo!
$NVDA Large $3 Million OTM Call (Unusual)
By: Cheddar Flow | July 1, 2024
• $NVDA Large $3M OTM Call (Unusual)
This has the August expiration and was executed above the ask
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Nvidia share price DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN today, on 1-July-2024. GLTA
PS: I look at it as an oppty to add. I have a good margin of profits and the decline has little impact on it.
Short term bearish dip. Considering it as consolidation. Not to hurry.
NVDA chart~~~ Consolidation retrace step #2. The last one was at 38.20% Fib which I consider a minor low.
https://thepatternsite.com/mmu.html
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVDA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=10&id=p94533541443&a=1714152226
Very interesting prediction. But that will not EVER happen to NVDA. You are a fudster, plain and simple. Short much?
Oh, I believe you! My dumbass sold at 320 last year.....NOT selling this time.
This is currently $1,200 Pre Split. Am I wrong? This needs to go to $30 over time pre Split
$NVDA Bulls buying the morning dip
By: Cheddar Flow | July 1, 2024
• $NVDA Bulls buying the morning dip
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Pretty happy to add more to my long term at 119 — thanks!
LOL! Ridiculous.
The split happened 21 days ago. It made it a little easier to manipulate, by all the day traders making their lunch money.
Wait until NVDA comes out with news about revenue smashing thru estimates, news about how every major chip user is absolutely DYING for NVDA product, news about advancement in the AI field.
It may not happen right away, but this is going higher.
NO MORE retailor market! All you hear is RECORD this and RECORD that, but most of us are down.....
I feel like, as soon as they split the stock, to more affordable "retailer" prices, it won't move.....
“The days of millions of GPU data centers are coming. And the reason for that is very simple. Of course, we want to train much larger models. But very importantly, in the future, almost every interaction you have with the Internet or with a computer will likely have a generative AI running in the cloud somewhere. And that generative AI is working with you, interacting with you, generating videos or images or text or maybe a digital human. And so you're interacting with your computer almost all the time, and there's always a generative AI connected to that. Some of it is on-prem, some of it is on your device and a lot of it could be in the cloud. And so the amount of generation we're going to do in the future is going to be extraordinary.” - Jensen Huang,
Or I should say confidence by the company.
Not to mention it shows confidence in the company!
Share buy backs do affect the share price in a positive manner. Less shares in circulation, combined with demand, drives the price higher.
It's sort of like inflation, (but in a good way for shareholders) - too many buyers chasing too few goods, drives the prices up.
Big corporations today are keenly aware of producing shareholder value.
Many folks these days don't have traditional pensions and have transitioned to self - funded 401k type plans, which are tied to the stock market.
Companies live quarter to quarter, seeking to increase shareholder value. Bonuses for many CEOs are tied to quarterly performance metrics and earnings.
Essentially, it has created shareholder capitalism. The wealthy own stocks and benefit from this, while many working class folks do not.
I’m not sure I agree with share but backs benefiting shareholders. I agree on buying shares back to neutralize the effect of issuing stock options (and other issuances) to protect EPS. To buy back to affect share price doesn’t happen it is like when they release oil reserves to effect pump prices (temporary at best). There has to be a better way to use excess cash IMO
Good, uncommon and thoughtful analysis by Karl Montevirgen.
I agree with his points.
He apparently knows what many T/A oriented users of lesser experience fail to note.
They see all stocks equally missing the skill of special situations that Nvidia happens to present.
Experience tells that there's a difference in viewing short term signals could be confusing and losing what the Fundamentals are pointing to. That could be likened in the a long journey choosing the "hill" while missing the mountain that happens to be farther along.
Missing the larger context in special and unique situations like Nvidia requires an awareness and being in charge of the "game".
Thank you Karl for the timely reminder.
Cheers, enjoy the Weekend and the July 4th Independence Holiday
A long read
EDITORS' PICK
Nvidia Stock Is Up 150% And 3 Key Advantages Could Keep It Rising
Peter Cohan
Senior Contributor
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Jun 28, 2024,01:59pm EDT
Updated Jun 29, 2024, 10:38am EDT
Nvidia stock shares rose 150% in the first half of 2024 — outpacing the S&P 500’s 15% increase by a factor of 10, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Can Nvidia stock keep rising? The answer depends on whether the AI chip designer can keep beating investors’ high expectations and forecast faster-than-anticipated growth.
To accomplish that, overall demand for AI chips must remain torrid and Nvidia must maintain or grow its dominant market share. The balance in favor of both trends persisting is strong. Here is why:
Although companies are still seeking high returns on their investment in generative AI, analysts expect companies’ urge to build AI chatbots to drive rapid growth in demand for GPUs for the next several years.
Despite challenges from rivals, according to CNBC, Nvidia’s market share is growing even larger due to three competitive advantages:
Supplying customers the best hardware for training large language models;
Creating software for over a decade that enables developers to build ever-more powerful generative AI applications; and
Attracting and motivating the most talented engineers by providing them the best opportunity to solve cutting edge technical challenges.
Demand For GPUs To Keep Growing
The S&P 500 has rewarded investors in companies that have capitalized on generative AI through unexpectedly high revenue growth. For instance, Nvidia — which enjoyed 262% revenue growth and a 57.1% net margin in the April 2024-ending quarter — accounted for 30% of the S&P 500’s total return in the first half, noted the Journal.
Those revenues are coming from a huge market for AI chips. The business is expected to double from $200 billion in 2023, according to Grand View Research, to “$400 billion per year by 2027,” according to The Economist.
By including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon, these five AI beneficiaries, accounted for “well over half of the broad U.S. stock index’s return,” the Journal wrote.
“Clearly, artificial intelligence has been a big boost to a number of the larger tech companies,” Holly MacDonald, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, told the Journal. “What’s been occurring there is not just buzz around AI, but we’re actually seeing it affecting results.”
The other four companies are benefiting from their positions in the generative AI value network, which I describe in my new book, Brain Rush. Microsoft beat analysts’ sales expectations — as AI drove demand for the company’s software and cloud services, the Journal reported.
Many investors see the promise of a transformative technology that could fuel leaps in productivity and growth. “It’s early innings, we think, of a multiyear secular bull phase in AI,” Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, told the Journal.
Nevertheless, companies buying the cloud services and software to build AI chatbots are looking for the high payoff uses of the technology. Based on my interviews with dozens of business leaders, generative AI in companies is caught in a bipolar battle.
Peer pressure can force CEOs to tell Wall Street how generative AI will transform their business. That pressure is reflected in a record level of mentions of the term AI in investor conference calls.
At the same time, CEOs may fear that generative AI hallucinations could threaten their company’s reputation.
This inconsistent battle has significant implications for business. Of 200 to 300 generative AI experiments the typical large company is undertaking, a mere 10 to 15 have been rolled out internally, and perhaps one or two have been released to customers.
That’s according to Liran Hason, CEO of Aporia, a startup offering guardrails to protect companies from AI hallucinations who spoke with me in a June 3 interview.
Despite the risk companies may struggle to earn high payoffs from their generative AI-powered chatbots, I think Mahajan’s “early innings” comment is right.
FORBES
Why Nvidia Stock Could Top $1,000 A Share After May Earnings Report
By Peter Cohan
Nvidia To Dominate GPU Market Due To 3 Competitive Advantages
Nvidia faces competition from large rivals including AMD and Intel; a variety of startups and operators of data centers — notably Amazon and Meta — who are trying to develop their own GPUs, according to the New York Times.
Despite the competition, Nvidia’s share of the GPU market has increased substantially in the most recent quarter. In order to win share from Nvidia, rivals must overcome three of the company’s powerful competitive advantages.
Nvidia is aware of its rivals and expressed confidence in its ability to maintain its market position. At a June 26 shareholder meeting, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang responded to a question about the competition by outlining how a decade ago, the company made investments to change focus from gaming to data centers, reported CNBC.
Nvidia is also investing in applications for other markets. For example, the company is partnering “with every computer maker and cloud provider” to build market share in industrial robotics, CNBC wrote.
The wide availability of Nvidia’s platforms — through every cloud provider and computer maker — sustains a flywheel that leads to greater market share. How so? The company’s large installed base creates an attractive market opportunity for developers to “make the improvements needed to attract even more users,” Huang said.
FORBES
Nvidia Stock Could Rise 10-Fold On New $10 Billion Growth Vector
By Peter Cohan
Why Nvidia Is Gaining Market Share
Nvidia’s share of the GPU market increased considerably in the first quarter of 2024.
Specifically, Nvidia’s GPU market share rose from 80% in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 88% in Q1 2024, according to a Jon Peddie Research report featured by Techradar. Meanwhile, AMD’s share of the GPU market fell from 19% to 12% while Intel’s share declined from 1% to “negligible,” noted Techradar.
Companies win or lose market share based on how well they perform on the criteria customers use to choose among alternative suppliers. Delivering what customers perceive as more value, enables the winning supplier to charge a higher price.
Such a differentiation strategy contributes to Nvidia’s high profitability. Due to their better performance and lower cost to run, Huang said the company’s AI chips more than offset their higher price by providing customers the “lowest total cost of ownership,” CNBC reported.
For an objective perspective, I interviewed an industry expert who explained how Nvidia prevails over rivals. GPU buyers evaluate vendors based on price, overall cost, product quality, software, economic payoff, and other criteria, according to a June 27 email from researcher Jon Peddie.
GPU purchase criteria include “all the above, as well as size of the vendor,” Peddie wrote. “Big companies like dealing with big companies that have staying power. Software compatibility is a very big decision point. Software is fragile and tricky to get right, and the old saying — if it ain’t broke – don’t fix it, applies,” he added.
Nvidia is way ahead of its rivals when it comes to satisfying customers’ purchase criteria for GPUs. Here are the three sources of competitive advantage that enable Nvidia to prevail on these CPC:
Hardware optimized for training and operating large language models. GPUs can process thousands of calculations at the same time — making them very efficient for training LLMs. Between 2013 and 2023, Nvidia increased the computation speed of its GPUs “1,000-fold,” noted The Economist. To speed up the computing operations of data centers, Nvidia used networking technology from Mellanox, a company it acquired for $7 billion in 2018, to optimize a data center’s network of GPUs in “a way that competitors can’t match,” The Economist reported.
A software platform that eases development of AI applications. Since the mid-2000s, Nvidia has been building CUDA, a software platform that “allows customers to fine tune the performance of its processors,” The Economist wrote. By encouraging developers to use CUDA to build and test AI applications, the platform has become “the de facto industry standard,” The Economist noted. “Nvidia has done just a masterful job of making it easier to run on CUDA than to run on anything else,” Edward Wilford, an analyst at tech consultancy Omdia, told Fortune. “CUDA is hands down the jewel in Nvidia’s crown. It’s the thing that’s gotten them this far. And I think it’s going to carry them for a while longer.”
Hiring and motivating top AI and GPU engineering talent. “Nvidia is a magnet,” wrote Peddie. “Nvidia is today what IBM was in the 1970s to 1990s — THE place to go to be at the leading edge, to work on things that will impact millions of people,” he added.
If demand for AI continues to grow and rivals cannot match Nvidia’s competitive advantages, the company’s stock is likely to continue its rapid rise.
Great article. Thanks for posting.
Fortune
Nvidia will produce such a massive ‘cash gusher’ that it will have to buy back more stock because all that money has nowhere else to go, analyst says
Jason Ma
AI chip leader Nvidia will have an embarrassment of riches in the coming years, and shareholders will be rewarded, a tech analysts predicted.
Ben Reitzes, a managing director and head of technology research at Melius Research, told CNBC on Wednesday that Jensen Huang's Nvidia has mastered a "full stack" approach with its hardware and software, giving it a key advantage in AI.
"What they did is they built a computing language and an ecosystem that allows you to monetize AI, and obviously they're killing it," he said.
Reitzes has a price target of $160 on Nvidia stock, implying a 30% gain from Friday's closing price. Despite an ongoing selloff that began earlier this month, shares have soared 150% so far this year after more than tripling in 2023. Among the Magnificent 7 stocks that he covers, Nvidia has the most upside ahead, he added.
Another big advantage Nvidia has over rivals is its annual cadence of innovating new products, Reitzes said. That means developers and customers will know where Nvidia is headed and can a budget for upgrades accordingly.
"And they're running 150 miles an hour while everyone else is running 100. It's going to be hard to catch these guys," he said.
Given Nvidia's edge in the booming AI space, Melius Research projects the company will generate $270 billion in cash over the next three years, potentially setting the stage for huge shareholder returns.
Management may not be eager to tout the possibility of stock buybacks as those are often associated with older companies, Reitzes said. But in his view, it's obvious.
"No one's talking about it, and when you do the model we do, it's a cash gusher," he said. "And there's nothing they can do. This government's not going to let them buy anything big. They can't invest that much in R&D. It's just not possible. So we gotta get it as shareholders."
To be sure, Nvidia has been returning capital to shareholders. In August, it announced a $25 billion repurchase program. And last month, Nvidia boosted its quarterly cash dividend by 150% from $0.04 per share to $0.10, equivalent to $0.01 per share on a post-split basis.
Nvidia declined to comment about the possibility of more stock buybacks.
For his part, Reitzes was quick to point out that any future buybacks wouldn't imply that Nvidia has stopped growing. "It's not an insult to buy back stocks if you have nothing else to do."
Nvidia's recent financials show that its ability to generate cash is accelerating. In the fiscal year that ended in January, Nvidia's net cash provided by operating activities soared to $28.1 billion from $5.6 billion in the prior year.
And in the first quarter that ended in April, net cash provided by operating activities was $15.3 billion—already more than half of last year's total.
Meanwhile, Huang told investors this past week that Nvidia will remain the gold standard for AI training chips amid concerns that rivals could cut into his market share.
The rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell system later this year will only cement that lead, he said at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday.
“The Blackwell architecture platform will likely be the most successful product in our history and even in the entire computer history,” Huang said.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
Can Nvidia's Stock Skyrocket Again? Key Levels to Watch Now!
By: Karl Montevirgen | June 27, 2024
• NVDA shares prices are falling, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the AI trend is at an end
• Expect near-term weakness in NVDA's stock price but keep in mind that longer-term prospects present a different picture
• Watch key support levels since ultra-bullish sentiment could quickly push prices higher
Waiting for a perfect setup—technically or fundamentally—can sometimes be a perfect way to miss an opportunity. The disruptor is market sentiment, as it jumps the gun on an opportunity hoping to be validated well after pulling the trigger.
Case in point: NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2023. The article NVDA Stock: Waiting For a Big Plunge? warned against buying into strength, as technical indicators signaled a potential pullback while also warning that the depth of a pullback is always unpredictable.
Instead of pulling back to $230 (or $23 after its recent 10-for-1 split), it pulled back to $250 ($25) before market sentiment, again the disruptor, snatched the opportunity that later would be validated by fundamentals.
Viewing a weekly chart, here's what happened. Take a look at the blue arrow. That was the week of the "dip."
CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA. See the blue arrow? That was the buy signal last time around.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
You have to squint to see the blue arrow, which seemed like a significant decision point for bulls and bears at the time. But as investor sentiment wagered on the upside, AI demand clarified that a new "era" of artificial intelligence far outweighs a short-term market opportunity. And so you see what happened.
Is NVDA a Buy Now, or Is the AI Trade Over?
NVDA share prices have fallen hard following the euphoria driven largely by the stock split. Wall Street analysts see limited upside for Nvidia in the near term and have been known to revise their targets.
In the long term, NVDA's outlook remains positive, due to the growing importance of AI and NVDA's dominant position in the AI hardware market. So, while short-term gains may be modest, the chipmaker is expected to outperform the market in the long run.
But corrections can turn into downtrends. So, if you are bullish on NVDA, here are the levels to watch. Take a look at NVDA's daily chart below.
CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. NVDA shares are falling. But will the decline remain a dip, or might it cascade into a much stronger downtrend?
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
While the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates that buying pressure remains positive, it also shows bullish momentum in a steep decline. The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted RSI, confirms this reading, showing prices declining from overbought levels alongside a bearish divergence between the indicator and NVDA.
The chart plots an Ichimoku Cloud (kumo) to map out a wider context to anticipate potential support. Here's what to keep an eye on:
• The cloud coincides with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels, which generally serve as favorable buying levels if you want to go long.
• The 50-day simple moving average (SMA), also commonly viewed as a potential support level, is also looking to converge with the 50% Fib level.
• The 50% and 61.8% Fib levels, along with the top and bottom end of the cloud, also match the two Runaway Gaps, which, if filled, tend to serve as support levels.
In short, the actionable buying range sits between $105-ish and $110. Of course, ultra-bullish market sentiment can disrupt this setup (as it did in March 2023) and send NVDA prices higher and sooner.
On the bearish side, if NVDA falls below $100, there's a possibility the correction will become an intermediate-term downtrend. What can trigger this scenario? Unimpressive earnings in the next few quarters (its next earnings is in August).
The Takeaway
While NVDA's long-term outlook remains bright thanks to its stronghold in the AI hardware market, expect near-term weakness. The key levels to watch for potential support are around $105 to $110, with ultra-bullish sentiment potentially pushing prices up sooner. However, if NVDA drops below $100, we could see a longer downtrend, especially if upcoming earnings disappoint. So, keep an eye on those levels and market sentiment to time your moves wisely.
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We don't always agree. However, that was a great post. Very informative and relevant.
Like you have said, nothing guaranteed, but the probabilities are there, along with an informative explanation.
Additionally, the information comes before the events, which is always appreciated and helpful.
Thank you for your contribution today!
One negative thing that happened today. Today was the monthly close and NVDA closed in the lower half of the month's trading range, suggesting that in July, it will go below June's low at 112.00. For the past 8 months, NVDA has closed out the month (every month) near the highs of the month and only on 1 month (April) did the stock fail to follow through to the upside the following month.
Normally (over 80% of the time), where a stock closes out the day, the week, and the month (upper of lower half), follow through is seen in that direction the following day/week/month. It is not a rule but a guideline. It does not happen every time but it does happen most of the time, so it is something to keep in mind.
My chart evaluations over the past 6 weeks show me that there is a good chance of NVDA falling down to the $107-$110 level and the close today suggests that it could happen in July.
This is not a negative for long term. Actually it is a positive given that the buying always dries up as a stock moves higher for the simple reason that no support levels are built on the way up. Having a stock go below the previous month's low is probably going to be the building of a new and "closer" support level from which the bulls can buy with some limitation of risk. At "this time" the already built and established support level on the monthly chart is at 75.61 and that is just too far away to buy and have a decent limitation of risk. If the stock does fall to $107/$110 and then rally from there, it will become the new established support level.
FYI
Low probability trade
NVDA board is for folks that are long, short and even some that stand against it.
Many want it to be only their view. <-- That's not happening. The echo chamber is done.
Next year it's coming to 250/shares
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http://www.nvidia.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation provides visual computing technologies designed to generate interactive graphics on consumer and professional computing devices
in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Graphic Processing Unit (GPU), Media and Communications Processor (MCP),
Professional Solutions Business (PSB), and Consumer Products Business (CPB).
The GPU segment comprises products that support desktop and notebook personal computers, and plus memory products.
The MCP segment consists of NVIDIA nForce core logic and motherboard GPU products.
The PSB segment offers professional workstation products and other professional graphics products, including high-performance computing products.
The CPB segment provides mobile brands and products that support handheld personal media players, personal digital assistants, cellular phones,
and other handheld devices. This segment also licenses video game consoles and other digital consumer electronics devices.
The company markets its products to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, add-in-card manufacturers, system builders,
and consumer electronics companies. NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
<img data-cke-saved-src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nvda&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p31506003373&a=81927329&r=373"; src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nvda&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p31506003373&a=81927329&r=373"; >"="" alt="">
PER IHUB MGMT 02-07-2021 DISCLAIMER; JUST TO MAKE SOME THINGS CLEAR I AM NOT AH FINANCIAL ADVISIOR & NOT AH BROKER. I AM JUST AH REGULAR GENT DAT LIKES TO CHAT CHATTER ON MANY COMPANIES. SOME I OWN AH LOT I DON'T. SO NOT RESPONSIBLE ANYTHING I DISCRIBE. DA MICK. |
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