College cram session: New Year’s Day
By TIM ROBERTS | December 31, 2007 | 5 comments
It’s the biggest day of bowl season, so I won’t waste time with preliminaries.
Here’s the betting dirt on the first games of 2008. Happy New Year and good luck to all!
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (-1 ½, 58 ½)
Bettors have flocked to the Wisconsin Badgers as 2007 comes to a close. The Tennessee Volunteers were 3 ½-point favorites in mid-December but steadily lost favor as the month advanced. There are a variety of reasons why that might be the case.
For starters, Tennessee was hit hard by academic suspension, losing 1,000-yard receiver Lucas Taylor and linebacker Rico McCoy, the team’s second-leading tackler. There’s also the buzz in Knoxville about looming coaching changes and a flock of underclassmen looking to flee to the NFL.
Recent Wisconsin bettors may have also been swayed by the Badgers’ record against SEC foes in recent bowl games. Wisconsin met an SEC school in its last four bowl trips and covered the spread in each of the last three. The Badgers are underdogs for the fifth straight time against an SEC school but posted straight-up wins in each of their last two postseason appearances.
In other good news for Wisconsin, running back P.J. Hill and tight end Travis Beckum, the Badgers’ top offensive weapons, are both at 100 percent health for Tuesday’s Outback Bowl.
Arkansas vs. Missouri (-3 ½, 68)
There hadn’t been an official announcement as of Monday morning, but it looks like Arkansas Razorbacks star Darren McFadden will suit up for Tuesday’s Cotton Bowl. Allegations of McFadden’s wrongdoing may have been the result of irresponsible journalism, but the school felt compelled to follow through on them to see if McFadden violated any NCAA rules.
Somewhat overlooked due to the McFadden turmoil is that the Razorbacks are in a transition phase and about to face the dangerous Missouri Tigers.
Arkansas defensive coordinator Reggie Herring is the interim head coach bridging the Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino eras. Offensive coordinator David Lee will still be on the sideline on Tuesday, lending some rare continuity to the Razorbacks during a tumultuous season.
Mizzou, who lost only to the Oklahoma Sooners this year, boasts the top tight-end tandem in the country in Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman. Comments from the Arkansas camp rankled the pair and quarterback Chase Daniel plans to exploit Rucker and Coffman’s shared motivation.
"Both of our tight ends will be ready, and they're more excited than anybody on our team," Daniel told the Dallas Morning News, saying that he’ll look their way early and often on Tuesday afternoon.
Michigan vs. Florida (-10 ½, 59)
Early bowl results have set a worrisome trend for the Michigan Wolverines, a team that will suit up for head coach Lloyd Carr one last time at the Capital One Bowl. Five schools in the middle of similar coaching changes played pre-Dec. 31 bowl games and they all lost (though three of them covered the spread).
The coaching shuffle at Michigan was supposed to be a positive thing. The players like and respect Carr, and a senior-heavy offense wanted to use his departure as a rallying point. The school has since hired former West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez, however, and things have changed.
Michigan assistants have been told they won’t be part of next season’s staff. They all say they’re focused on the Florida Gators on Tuesday. But rumors involving defensive coordinator Ron English and Louisville, however, underline that assistant coaches might be more worried about securing a regular 2008 paycheck than their final game on the UM sideline.
Rodriguez’s offensive reputation has triggered another distraction in Wolverines camp. The WVU spread succeeded with a mobile quarterback, something Michigan freshman Ryan Mallett is not. As Rodriguez reshapes the Wolverines staff, returning players might wonder if their roles are in jeopardy under the new regime.
Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+5 ½, 59)
No offense in the country passes as often as that of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Mike Leach’s team threw 57.8 passes per game this year, which means protecting quarterback Graham Harrell is always a huge issue for Tech’s O-line. It becomes an even bigger issue in Tuesday’s Gator Bowl, where the Virginia Cavaliers will pack one of the nation’s top pass rushes.
All-American defensive end Chris Long picked up 14 quarterback sacks this year, but he didn’t act alone. Outside linebacker Clint Sintim and end Jeffrey Fitzgerald combined for another 14 sacks in defensive coordinator Mike London’s 3-4 defensive alignment.
Leach has shown in recent years, however, that he can adopt a game plan to suit his bowl game opponents. Texas Tech beat its three postseason opponents between 2002 and 2004 by double-digit margins. The Red Raiders failed to cover the spread in each of their last two bowl appearances, but last year’s Insight Bowl warrants special mention. Tech trailed Minnesota by as many as 31 points last year before scoring the game’s final 34 points in an overtime win.
Virginia, a ranked underdog against the unranked Red Raiders, hasn’t faced an offense this season that even remotely resembles Tech’s “Air Raid”.
Illinois vs. USC (-13 ½, 49 ½)
The underdog Illinois Fighting Illini can run the ball, just ask Ohio State. But can they move the ball through the air against a USC Trojans defense that will dare them to do just that?
Illinois quarterback Juice Williams’ late-season numbers give Illini backers hope.
"He's seeing and understanding defenses a lot better," Big Ten Network football analyst Chris Martin told the Chicago Tribune. "He knows where to throw the ball, so he's more confident and decisive. He's also throwing with more touch. If Illinois can get (freshman wide receiver) Arrelious Benn involved in the game down the field, that will loosen up USC's defense."
Williams’ top quarterback rating for any September or October game was only 135.8. He exceeded a 150.0 rating against all three November opponents, highlighted by his four-touchdown (with no interceptions) outing against the Buckeyes.
Unfortunately for Williams & Co., Southern Cal didn’t allow a single opponent to compile a 150.0 passer rating this season and was one of six schools to hold foes below a 100.0 rating on the season.
Hawaii vs. Georgia (-7 ½, 69)
The Georgia Bulldogs were going to be challenged by the Hawaii Warriors’ offense even with a healthy defense. They’re going through some turmoil, however, at the linebacker position as the Sugar Bowl approaches.
"Plan A is to have everyone healthy and ready to go, but that may not be the case, so we'll have to have multiple guys ready to play," linebackers coach John Jancek told the Macon Telegraph last Friday.
Leading tackler Dannell Ellerbe is practicing at less than 100 percent. While neither Jancek nor his player have said what’s wrong, the coach said Ellerbe is day-to-day. Fellow linebacker Marcus Washington, seventh on the team with 40 total tackles, has also been hobbled by an ankle injury and suggested he’s at 85 percent of full health.
While bettors can question the accuracy of Washington’s self-diagnosis, Jancek doesn’t like thinking about Hawaii’s offense with a hurting group of linebackers.
"(The Warriors) get the ball out in space where mobility is the key to your success, and if you don't feel like you are 100-percent mobile and at top speed, then there is obviously some concern there," Jancek told the Telegraph. "We are just going to have to play a multiple number of guys and keep them fresh and everyone has to contribute and just pull on the rope a little bit harder."
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