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chomping at the bit for the right time. I've chickened out on the shorts a few times.. thankfully :o)
For me a core position right now is about 25% PMs here (lagging or value plays for the most part) and the rest cash. No shorts currently, but like many chomping at the bit for the right time.
Been doing some trading / rebalancing Cash was too low.. higher now.. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38411581
Think there might some manipulated numbers in tomorrow's jobs report? Gold acting well and a few laggards I'd like to play, but too much manipulation possible ST. Too many praising gold of late as well. Sitting on my hands w/my core positions.
Near the bottom of the channel on the HUI. Should get a bounce here at least (GDX at 41.5 or so). I should be buying, but gold and silver still look too extended ST. Going to sit on hands a bit longer. Off to practice golf swing.
Sry, been fairly busy to post. Will update later on more gen. market and gold thoughts in more depth.
Looks like HUI is heading back to 370-350 area. Sold a bunch today. Had some shorts going into today, but will probably ride out a trip to 950 and this pt and then see if we get a gap fill. Overall gold gains way outpaced market short losses, but still sloppy on my part. Friday's late day action seemed rigged, but based on this morn, I guess not.
Sold the RAY.V avg > .40 :O)
Bought some COS.UN near the close.. up modestly.. lagging the field today... noted by johnlw
K
So is everyone sitting their hands today :O)
Doing some 'risk' stuff..
Bought RAY.V .30 this AM
Bought HTD.TO (short 30 year US treasuries) to possibly replace TBT which suffers when USD declines in tandem with treasury yield increase.
K
FWIW.. Hedge Fund LOL update..
missing position in KCL.TO
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38110194
OT - Thanks. Wasn't sure if you were reading i-Hub again. Sucked you back in, eh? Been a very nice 3 days. Let's celebrate and go to Milw w/the families. CB is 4 hours of flight and 5 hrs of car for us. MIlw is 2 hr flight for us. We both have family in Milw. 2 birds w/one stone. Late July is out (trip already planned), but early Aug, or early/mid July might work. Might be fun to be there for the 4th. Let me know what you think.
Managed to get somewhat hedged prior to close. So have decent amount of shorts to offset existing gold holdings. Think NGD is still a buy here and definately on any pullback. AUY below 10 again and I'd like nibble back some of what I sold. More evenly spread out again from a risk management standpoint. Still think 910/915 or maybe even 940-950 is possible for S&P, but I think it would have to come next week to have much chance. Otherwise it's looking like we're break 870/875 area sooner than later and go down another 3-4% from there in fast order. Will be around this weekend if you want to chat.
Nice work, IAC...as always.
I was rooting for AUY for you as I missed/chickened out on it in the 8.50-8.80s earlier this week.
Done selling. Have about 60% (overall) of what I had previously. Sold the most GG as it's been lagging compared to my other plays, then AUY and didn't touch NGD, ER, KTN.
Sold the SRS for a gain and will look for a reentry in gen. market shorts later. Been a very nice 3 days. Off to daughter's preschool for some quality time.
Think today might be a local top in the miners. Starting to sell some as I'm overweight and shift into some gen. market shorts. Top may just be a few days or a week or two. Hard to say right now. Not going to get too cute. Will maintain decent positions unless action is obvious.
K... this rally took off in earnest towards the end of March from the 50-day MA, the minor pullbacks along the way were touches on the 20-day MA, we've broken that after today - I reckon we're on our way back to the the 50-day MA, simply because I like the symmetry in that. :)
Btw, sideways tomorrow since it's FRIDAY. (...and another long weekend...?)
- which could mean another run up on Tuesday before going back down.
Does that answer your question...?
So consensus here would be stay short S&P it appears.. Not a one day pullback...
Key pt of the day just happened for gold stocks. Gold and gold stocks at highs of the day while market moves to fresh lows. Couldn't have scripted it any better. Just need volume to pick up in the likes of ABX, NEM, GG etc.
I think this rally ST will probably end when ABX gets back new it's highs in Feb 09. The some consolidation prior to any fireworks. I'll be a seller ST to pare back exposure - not get all out, when ABX hits close to 40 level.
I don't think we'll see the inflation that many are expecting either. Or it'll be muted since it'll only come from what we import. Buffet is making some long term bets w/what he once termed as "weapons of mass destruction". I'm quite convinced he'll be proven wrong.
Of course this could unravel much faster than expected as the downturn came faster. Maybe the currency crisis will too.
Oil will be just as good as a hedge if not better than gold at some pt, but we could still be a few years out.
Pared back some AUY to buy more NGD. More risk management in overall portfolio as I was too overweight AUY. Staying fully invested here though I think tomorrow could be a ST top. Micros in many cases are still not moving even decent quality stuff such as CPQ. Makes me somewhat suspect of this move IT. But ST still think there's more upside. No CPQ here, but do have some KTN (small). Similar deposit, but more cash rich and cheaper overall.
I'd be thrilled to win that and find out I have to share it with 48 other folks :O)
Spread the happiness :O)
EDIT: Yeah 49 million is just silly...
I'd be thrilled to win that and find out I have to share it with 48 other folks :O)
I have trouble with how long until inflation...
Based on the US consumer recovering to prior levels... I do not buy it.
Based on USD devaluing for external reasons like China bypassing it as a reserve currency.. as in deals with Argentina , Brazil etc.. I buy that ... but I don't need bullion then.. I need gold stocks as I'm in Canada..
Yeah... I know it can't be easier LOL
lol... my wife is under strict orders to NOT by lottery tickets - I can't even imagine the amount of hijinx that $49 million would bring upon me.
an absolute curse, I say...
Not the inflation in the here and now, but expected inflation. The mainstream story that I've been hearing more and more is that all this money creation is going to cause inflation down the road (plus the recovery is here so that'll make the inflation worse). I suspect we see another bout of bad deflation where everything gets sold. Gold might be sparred since it was sold off into the fall to absurd levels (at least the stocks), but I suspect not. Though the selloff in gold shouldn't be as bad this time (which aligns w/another Dollar rally that shouldn't be quite as strong as the fall).
"Wish this stuff was easier..."
If it was easier more people could do it. If it was easier it wouldn't be as gratifying (when it works). If it was easier I'd have an even more distorted view of reality.
Well inflation seems to be a non issue in Canada.. Oil has had a nice run.. with the US stats finally justifying a higher price.. and GS call.. Tons of calls for 72$ oil now.. good for green shoots ? Not.. Waiting for next GS oil call ;o) Downgrade when they once they've unloaded ... naw.. I'm way too cynical.. Inflation ? Doesn't look like US consumers will be back in force to me.. Will Chinese pace of raw material consumption continue ? I note that China has set up a deal to bypass the USD with Argentina and is now working on same with Brazil.. Not sure what that does for gold but cannot be USD friendly so US inflation is likely ... Still not convinced that makes gold a #1 choice for a Canuck...
Wish this stuff was easier...
K
I'm not sure either hour is more important. Depends on your timeframes of course, but we're both IT creatures (I think) that have been trying to trade more ST since that's what this market demands. Volume was still not there in many issues (ABX, NEM), but on some key issues (stuff I own) volume is looking nice.
This move in gold has been inspired more on inflation side so I don't think this is "it". But I do think the rally could go another 10-20% before failing again ST. I'm overweight AUY so if we get another big move tomorrow I'll likely take some and diversify or just raise a bit of cash. Deflation should rear it's head at least one more time before gold is crowned king. I don't have any set targets ST. Think we'll see a day where gold is up $20-30 soon and then we'll see if the gold stocks lag or get some volume.
congrats, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing - I missed the move completely, but I've been giving my intuition free reign lately, so far so good... except when it comes to trading gold. I'm starting to think that gauging the last hour of trading (especially true when it comes to gold) is a suckers bet...maybe all the important trading happens in the second last hour.
Anyway... looking forward to tomorrow.
later.
I feel like taking the S&P short, but think we'll at least see one more push higher in gold ST. Right now decent odds we take out 875 on this move down (850/840), but wouldn't surprise me to see 900+ one last time if that happens.
Was a very nice day being weighted heavy gold. Think NGD/WGW should move soon. One of the few I added today.
IAC - I'm probably a bit early with this, but I've take both energy stocks and the SnP short.
Gen markets should tag higher levels before a bigger move down. Hopefully this should bust higher.
>
With 20+ accounts to trade I tend to be a little slower at times going in/out. In this case I'm still holding the bag.
man oh man, aren't we on the same page - heck, we're throwing off similar posts pretty much at the same time...!
:)
see you tomorrow.
Probably smart move. Weakness in PMs mirrored by gen. markets.
GLD - new pivot point put in place this hour (on the hourly) LOWER HIGH...!
...soooo, I've sold my position in the gold stock index (HGU.TO) into the close for $12.04
Let's see what the markets gives us in opportunities tomorrow.
Don't like this weak close w/the PMs at the end, but I think we may just need to recharge the hourly charts. Holding for now.
Some double tops on the hourlies, but daily still constructive for now.
IAC - my guess is that gold bullion telepathic, it's looking into the future, the market otoh is running on momentum.
What I'd like to see (when looking at the Nasdaq chart) is a big day tomorrow, blow-off (on the hourly) leaving a double-top on the daily - I'd love to take the market short tomorrow afternoon.
As for me buying the gold index this morning - it was hugging the 9-day MA and I thought; why not? That's about the level of thought I gave that trade this morning.
Same boat, different plays. Looks like we bust higher. I just wish the volume was there in more issues. The other wild card is the general market, but that also looks like it wants higher ST. Blowoff together?
- long the gold stock index - HGU.TO @ $11.70
Gold shares - If today's lows get taken out the sector is definately going at least another 10% lower. Haven't liquidated yet, but if do start going to those lows again I'll likely sell 1/2 if not all of my trading positions.
Have a great weekend all...!
see y'all Tuesday - in one piece.
PEACE...I'm outta here.....!!!
I covered my energy short for a cool 4% - the only thing in my portfolio for the long weekend is gold bullion - HBU.TO
ohh, we're trading again finally - my portfolio hadn't moved for about 30-minutes.
Canadian markets have stopped trading due to a technical problem.
Frank, per the EW HUI chart I sent we either head back up into a V of 3 or we've got issues. Can't go much lower w/out a much big breakdown. So far they're coming off the lows. Would align w/my general market read as well.
Per this chart I think we head back up at some pt next week and hit the previous trend (around 900) one more time before hitting the lower part of the channel next. Beyond that I'm not sure.
SPX broke down on the hourly - I did not expect that - what's next for Tuesday...?
We're touching the 20-day MA, if we don't bounce from here a drop to the 50-day is not out of the question - a drop and bounce off the 35-day MA could set-up an H&S top.
to follow up my "AHHHHHHHHH...........!" post - markets kinda flat, expecting a bull run into the close.
I stopped out of financials right at the open - went short on energy, still maintaining a long position in gold bullion.
I expect we'll finish in the green today, and into the green on Tuesday - not because I'm Kreskin, but for statistical reasons.
The Amazing Kreskin: Kreskin's Predictions for 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-amazing-kreskin/kreskins-predictions-for_b_154531.html
K.Co...yup - did the long-weekend come early or something...? It's dropping below zero at night around these parts - my tomatoes are pissed at being carried in every night...May is not what it used to be.
futs are negative this morning - we shall see for how long.
anyway, I have a date with the Giro this morning.
later.
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