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Frank tomorrow is Friday and Monday is a holiday ;o)
There you go... same principle :O) Saves the expense of a backup generator :O)
AHHHHHHHHH...........!
tomorrow is Friday..............!
up day for US stocks + banks
down day for drillers, crude and PMs
hopefully there's enough fear out there (because of the low volume), that at the open tomorrow we gap down (and flip a hollow red candlestick) so I can cover my bank short and go long...?
crazy market, but that's what I think we'll see.
my biggest problem with the markets in general is the distinct lack of volume - which makes an already manic market even more sensitive then what I can normally stand.
(edit) Now that's probably better. One was a LT play for me (ER.TO) which is up on very heavy volume - won't touch it. The other I'm heavy is AUY which seems to be sporting the same pattern as IAG, NXG prior to it's breakout and it's one of the cheaper bigcaps. I'll stop myself as I'm somewhat unsure ST as well. Getting pigish on my part.
Also gold looks like it wants higher levels ST, but I'm not convinced by any means that this is "IT".
IAC - maybe I've gone totally nuts, but I just sold down my position in the gold stock index-- and now I'm short banks.
...still maintaining my position in bullion.
60 min S&P chart/channels - Currently 0 shorts and back to approx 40% PMs. A little heavy, but in specific plays.
more likely use for me would be to power my air conditioner this summer...
I was too chicken to short oil stocks this AM..
PF down 1% today... so I beat the index.. whoo whoo ..
Anyway added more boring stuff
KBL.UN (Actually overweight so need to lighten this one on a pop)
ATP.UN
MSI.UN
B
Yeah I have trouble valuing gold stocks :O) I noticed KCL activity the other day but did not step in.. Had a lowball bid.. now I see why it was humming...
B
EDIT: I was planning on raising cash soon tonight every nerve in my body is saying NOW ... I'm getting antsi :o(
Have you seen that? I am speechless lol
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25639969
$33 G wasn't cheap enough for you? Sub $9 ELD?
Stingy bugger.
JW
Hello again!
I believe the groundwork is done for a strong up leg in POG, IF it is convinient for the C-Banksters and Fed.
I am pretty much loaded!
E
Damn gold just will not come down to where I wanna buy... You may be right.. Lots of folks looking for a summer buy opportunity... so that makes it less likely :O)
(edit) Took most of the SRS off the table. Probably too soon, but trading SRS very ST, and holding SDS a bit longer. Gold/gold stocks looking like there may be no pullback.
Volume is light so far in the golds. Will have too look further. Still net long approx 15-20% gold stocks in my main account, but if this is for real want to be more.
Interesting oil post http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5384
(edit) No when I was talking numbers/targets purely the S&P. I see what you see in gold. I do think the potential is there for a big move up soon. NXG and IAG may be leading the way (very odd there). Both broke to the upside recently. I just think we need at least one more decent shakeout before we can begin in earnest. Gold has been doing better of late because people are worried about inflation again. Maybe the global economy isn't so bad and all this money will cause inflation. Anti-Dollar plays such as oil, food, natural have done well of late and I believe have outperformed gold ST. I'd like to see gold moving opposite the general market again. I'd like to see us take out 920-930 decisively on volume if possible. And I like to see gold outperforming oil/food again. I think what'll happen when the markets start heading down again the focus will go back to deflation. In that environment gold, markets will probably go down together again for a while. Again how long I'm not sure. Gold stocks are at a cross-roads here imho. Right now I'll wait for more of a trend before I commit.
PS - I often tell people I'm wrong 40% of the time which is probably true. I just bet more on the trades where I have a higher confidence so over the long haul I do ok. So that said listen to me for entertainment value mostly.
Nice close on the gold stock index - keep a close eye on this, maybe, just maybe we'll get a "too early in the season" break-out.
I'm off for a much deserved bike ride.
K...I don't think it moved because of hurricanes, but it could-- certainly not out of the question.
But....!!!
If the solar flare cycle ever decides to start again, and it should have restarted at the beginning of the year we could get an incredibly hot summer, without it - cold and wet is the forecast.
you mean gold...?
I'm not recommending it to anyone - in fact, I'm somewhat apprehensive about my position because 1) you're not exactly warm to the idea... 2) not in season.
fwiw, I'm following the 9-day MA and the chart pattern - a double bottom without piercing the SAR.
...and about seasonality and cycles.
again, "FWIW" in a cosmic sense, time is speeding up (I'll explain later) so are the cycles/seasonality, if gold breaks out here on decent volume then September came early, which wouldn't surprise me.
Broke thru to the downside. If I'm right this should hit new lows or at least retest them by EOD. Otherwise I'll have to rethink it a bit.
Funny that their energy guy Chu has been a softer in his coal rhetoric lately.. US missing the boat again.. Baton passing inexorably to China IMO.. (not a new view for me :O)
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25635912
EDIT: Some guy on BNN was talking about possibly hurricane season driving NG :O) I think your coal thought make a lot more sense.. considering 50+ of US powergen is still coal based..
I agree on the parabolic part and 950 and the 200 ema are so close I think they get tagged at this pt. But...
1) Too much bullishness ST.
2) Overbought ST.
3) Going into options week next week.
4) Too many looking to get short again. 950 would be too much of a gift, no?
5) At this risk/reward ratio IT I start to take some chances hitting the trend a bit early.
Again doing this ST on TA/EW and will use stops probably around 924 if seen.
IAC - when I look at the SPX daily - it hasn't gone parabolic so I remain neutral. I see a sideways consolidation, unless "something hits the fan." I'm guessing a lot of the move from the bottom was driven by the recovery in banks - which sector will be next to fly, dunno... but it'll be the next driver that will further this rally.
Btw, I'm long gold - bought the HGU.TO index fund last week @ $11.06 and then it moved up to $11.11 as I looked up to my clock which read 11:11.
weird, eh...?
lol
If they're devious they may just be able to get back near the gap around 920-922 before heading lower again. ABC would still be valid.
Looking more like abcde move so direction probably won't resolve till close to 3 or 3:30. As always a swag.
No problem. I always have plenty of cliches, obvious insights handy.
S&P 5 min - should resolve lower
TA says so, and EW says possible 1 down w/abc correction and now part III or larger C down. Either way....down. (so I hope).
especially NG scoffing at every fundamental
K...the fundamentals have more to do with the Obama administration taxing the coal fired energy producers out of existence.
Gold had followed the markets up and I suspect we'll need another decoupling period. It might be very short or it might not. No strong opinion yet, but so far so good. Dollar will probably strengthen initially as defensive money goes back toward treasuries again. Each rally in the Dollar appears to be getting weaker and weaker. Right now I'm not sure we've seen the highs on the overall indexes. I think it's 50/50. If we get some down this week I'll be taking profits on shorts and likely looking to add some gold plays back.
A few other considerations which I'll probably relate later.
Very tough day on my US holdings.. daytrades gone bad... stopped out NFLX, TXT, CSC... JNJ still up well despite the USD pressure and SO doing OK.. but yeah USD/CAD smoking me here..
Sold my BNP.UN and DAY.UN and green power BPT.UN... (but I swing that one regularly for a grand or two and a distribution) but maybe early on BPT this time....... The oil and gas prices are astounding me... especially NG scoffing at every fundamental out there and pulling a Trudeau... Just watch me! LOL
Bought some more boring Linen Supply KBL.UN with a good yield..
have a great weekend...!
be safe.
agreed... the KBE index is somehow still putting pressure on the gold index. The currency markets have broken out, or down depending on your perspective.
Btw, I'm surprised that your selling down your position in gold - short term indicators show it to be overbought, but... it has to potential of being extremely overbought if there was ever any kind of volume involved...US$ chart looks especially bad with a strengthening down trend.
Gold stocks seems to be tracking the move in the general market. If one think that the move in the general market is unsustainable then I think we'll be able to buy at lower prices again. I still have some gold positions, but I did sell some today. I'm also scaling back into shorts. Maybe 950 area on the S&P, but I don't think we go much higher w/out at least coming back to these levels ST. As such forcing myself into some shorts again.
EURUSD +1.7%
CADUSD +1.6%
CHFUSD +2.1%
VERY VERY VERY tough day for the US$
It's "almost" surprising that gold isn't up at least as much.
-----
actually this is fucking crazy - so let me get this right, the CHFUSD +2.1% and the SPX is up about the same amount - yup, that's one hell of a bull market in our global village... (...sigh)
GOLD - GLD Chart Analysis
EURUSD +1.5%
CADUSD +1.54%
CHFUSD +1.9%
VERY tough day for the US$
It's "almost" surprising that gold isn't up at least as much.
EURUSD +1.25%
CADUSD +1.28%
CHFUSD +1.56%
tough day for the US$
gold breaking out....?
which brings back the old argument of does price movement precede volume...?
stopped out - I'm in cash.
It looks to me that this mornings gap has become a support level - I'm teetering on covering this short.
...just took a short on energy.
I took a small gain from my bank short - let's see what tomorrow brings.
A...I don't envy MM position - trying to predict the price movements of gold...???
thanks for posting.
In bear markets Fridays and Mondays are normally hellish days - the reverse is true in "bull" markets.
IAC - I use CCI to determine the validity of candlesticks. A CCI stronger than 200 is the only time I'll consider a candlestick as an indicator of pivot points. This set-up works best in a non trending reactionary market. I believe the two indicators work best on a 6 month chart - ST.
I use RSI, ADX, and Moving Averages as a team - that's how I determine the quality and strength of the trend. I use those three indicators on a 12 month chart - IT.
Long-term....?
I'll leave that to the gurus.
here's what I look at day to day:
Nice trade. Always fun when you can make money against the prevailing trend. Haven't really used ADX, CCI in the past. I know people besides yourself though that find it useful. I took a .75% loss trying to short the market around 910. I knew I should have covered around lunchtime, but being away from the computer and only having rough charts I got sloppy. Was in the green for a brief while after putting the trade on, but didn't last too long. We'll see how tomorrow goes, but I'm guessing before the week is out I'll be shorting again.
How long have you been using CCI and ADX? In terms of your various TA indicators is it in the top 25/50% of things you use?
martin m presentation 4/29/09
http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/denvergold/042809/index.php?mode=1&sel_date=2
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