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It was very timely Elroy, especially in technology which had been leading this market higher, however it is showing a little weakness.
Today's market is more directionless than the previous two days. A few Puts were bought back: ABR 10, JNJ 4, SHOP 5, O 2, YPF 20. Also, bought back 7 MO Calls.
Watching the 3 momentum plays purchased this morning and alert for any signs of further gains or limiting any losses.
Well done Elroy. I agree, there's no reason to do much more than trim some exposure.
AI is the future, but before that occurs there will be a few bubbles burst, including one fairly soon in this very overbought area.
The 3 stocks I bought this morning and posted here were indicated to be break out candidates. I will hold them as long as mostly the PPO pattern holds. Other indicators are also used.
Energy Select Sector SPDR: Pivot points
THE FLY 8:26 AM ET 6/16/2023
The following are the pivot points for the Energy Select Sector SPDR. Pivot High: $81.97, Pivot Low: $80.60. These were calculated using the DeMark method. It is generally believed to be bullish when price breaks out above the pivot high or bearish when price breaks down below the pivot low.
I sold a few tech stock today in our Roths like Broadcom which have experienced a big run-up.
Unfortunately most of our NVDA is in taxable accounts so that will have to wait until after Jan 1.
I may end up selling some AAPL in Roth accounts, stocks don't go to the moon all at once, but it's not really that expensive for a firm with a lot of cash and a dominant position.
It's an unrelentingly up market in tech without the smallest pullback. I'm just taking it day by day.
Quick post regarding my preferred stocks. They all took a hit when JP said we'll likely have two more bumps up in 2023. That portfolio is now down 1.25% since inception earlier this year. I'm not concerned because; A) I'm always early and B) This is a long term holding. As each of these 12 throw off dividends I'm adding a few shares while keeping my cost basis very similar in each holding - not the market value. Some, like AT&T and Southern Co. are up nicely and others like Schwab and Metlife are down. I don't want to chase the losers. In aggregate these preferreds are down 16% from par, roughly where I bought them. If it takes four years for them to return to par my return will average 10% a year. If it continues to perform weakly this summer I'll bump it up from 20% of holdings to 25%.
Regarding the economy:
JP's job is to kneecap the economy if he has to, to bring inflation under control. There was a good article in the WSJ a few days ago talking about how the treasury had to 'catch up' selling bonds this summer after the debt ceiling goofy-verse. That means there may be more treasury debt sellers, (yeah, that seller), than buyers which will drive up the cost of debt. They speculated 6% for 2-year bonds. As I've said before, the hobo government is desperate to get back to near zero short term bonds and it's JP's job to make sure that happens.
Any Democrat with a brain is only paying lip service to how truly sorry they are about student debt payments beginning again. People are still too flush with money after the pandemic giveaway and the huge Social Security bump in 2023. If they can't break the consumer they can't stop inflation. They've tried breaking the jobs market but that didn't work, now they're going directly after the consumer's pocketbook.
Just my opinion but it makes complete sense to me. You can't tell American consumers to do anything, you have to break them. Volker and Reagan did that. JP knows that lesson well. So does Biden. He's been around that block before.
I spent some time tonight reviewing several of my technical indicators and - no surprise - tech is overbought. In fact, the SPX is up on the back of a handful of tech stocks. The rest of the ~500 are just muddling along. What did surprise me is that there is no confirming evidence that this bull run in tech is over. Personally, I think it's almost over but today I can find no confirmation. Let's see how it goes for the rest of June.
Twitter on Tuesday suspended the Twitter accounts of PlainSite and its founder Aaron Greenspan, a prominent critic of Tesla and Musk.
Greenspan has meticulously tracked litigation by or against companies mostly in the U.S., including Tesla, Twitter (which Musk took private in an acquisition last year), as well as competitors GM, Meta and a myriad of others.
Said Musk, "This is not the type of free speech which is protected on Twitter, it's woke."
Bought back AMR 7 Puts, BHP 10 Puts( will not re sell these, the stock quality in my book went lower than other, better choices).
Refineries which can't be tweeked by chemical engineers to produce a different product mix will suffer.
During the pandemic the world wanted diesel with far less gasoline and jet fuel.
Chevron's refineries are very good at tweeking. Rip it apart, mix it with steam and natural gas, add catalysts and acid reformer units and this becomes that.
One more note from the NYT:
Gasoline consumption, which accounts for about a quarter of world demand for oil products, will decline after 2026, the agency, (IEA), forecasts.
It's really funny as the advertisements which show up online, for me, are increasingly a combination of ads in English, German and Spanish.
Probably as a result of the different languages in emails I receive to my Google email.
I also ironically" see ads for products I've bought recently on Amazon. There's this advertising theory that recent customers view their purchases more favorably when they see ads and affirmations by others who've bought the same thing.
If I just say "echo play music" it defaults to something it calls "your customized station" which is far better at what I'd like to hear than Spotify.
It all makes me smile and makes the mentally ill paranoid.
Hey Google - show me the money. From the NYT:
Google Might Owe You Money. Here’s How to Get It.
As part of a legal settlement, Google agreed to pay $23 million to users who clicked on a search link from 2006 to 2013. Individual payments are estimated to be less than $8.
Anyone who clicked on a Google search result link from October 2006 to September 2013 is entitled to a piece — however small — of a $23 million settlement that the tech giant has agreed to pay to resolve a class-action lawsuit.
The settlement’s administrators set up a website for people to submit claims. According to the site, the estimated individual payout stands at $7.70. But that figure can fluctuate based on the number of people who make valid claims.
Google, which is owned by Alphabet Inc., agreed to the settlement in August. The consolidated class-action lawsuit filed in 2013 accused the company of “storing and intentionally, systematically and repeatedly divulging” users’ search queries and histories to third-party websites and companies.
This, according to the lawsuit, amounted to a privacy-law violation and a breach of Google’s own privacy pledge to its users.
The lawsuit argued that Google search queries often contained sensitive and “personally identifiable” information, including “users’ real names, street addresses, phone numbers, credit card numbers, Social Security numbers, financial account numbers and more, all of which increases the risk of identity theft.”
Google, which has admitted no wrongdoing, is required as part of the settlement to update its frequently-asked-questions page and its “key terms” page to disclose how search queries can be shared with third parties.
A court will decide whether to approve the agreement at a hearing on Oct. 12, according to the claim administrator website. It is not clear when payments will be distributed. Even if the court grants final approval of the settlement in October, appeals can slow the process, according to a claim notice from the administrator.
Users who wish to file a claim have until July 31 to submit their full name, street address and an email address. Anyone who wishes to object to or be excluded from the settlement must submit a form by mail by the same deadline.
Last year, Meta, Facebook’s parent company, agreed to pay $725 million to settle a similar class-action lawsuit over its handling of user data.
Kava in Fiji made me ill. The name Kava means "bitter". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kava
There's some serious problems in that little island nation.
Cava specializes in selling things like frozen falafel balls.
The absolute difference between the richest and the poorest changes over time.
We're currently seeing far more nations benefit from global commerce, but fewer in each nation benefiting from this global commerce individually.
I suspect those not benefiting from this global commerce make up a goodly part of the mob supporting mentally unbalanced "populist" leaders like Trump and Orbán.
I drank some Cava in Fiji, it was a numbing drink. Color was like dishwater.
Their CEO was on CNBC this morning going 100% carnival barker and declining several times to say when they'll be profitable.
Sadly over 24,000 equal sickos liked his post.
Regardless of the political system that exists in a country there will always be a small very rich group. Even in Stalin's and Rakosi's governments of All Equal Communism there was a very rich group of party elites and a large group of toiling group.
This cannot change in any system since some will strive and yes, also get lucky. Human nature.
From CNBC:
China to see the world’s biggest millionaire exodus this year, new study shows
That's not surprising as Xi tightens control. It was surprising how many millionaires are leaving the not-so United Kingdom.
Britian's new tag line: Not as bad as China
Cava, the new Quaker Oats to the moon.
Bought back: MSFT 2 Puts, PANW 5 Puts. Rolled 10 Calls in JD from a strike of 40 to 45. Net gain, while giving up a few months into the future, 40%.
China's slowdown continues to accelerate.
Investment down 6% January-April, 7% in May
Property sales down .4% January-April, .9% in May
New construction down 21% January-April, 22.6% in May
Developer funds raised down 6.4% January-April, 6.6% in May
Given all of the negative economic data and upcoming student loan requirements, I don't understand this market so can't jump in.
CAVA is going public momentarily. Listed at $22 initially it's up as high as $44 as JPM and others carny-up the rubes. Check in on this one in October.
Why Hong Kong wants Bank of China, HSBC, and Standard Chartered to add crypto exchanges as clients to help facilitate money laundering
https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/15/hong-kong-bank-of-china-hsbc-standard-chartered-crypto-exchanges/
Christopher Kise, a former solicitor general of Florida was paid $3 million upfront to join Trump’s legal team last year.
Kise tried to interest Trump in a negotiated settlement with the Justice Department last year, by promising a professional approach and the return of all documents.
But Trump was not interested, instead seeking out attorneys who would fight for "his right" to keep classified government documents.
Interviews with seven Trump advisers with knowledge of the probe indicate he misled his own advisers, telling them the boxes contained only newspaper clippings and clothes. He repeatedly refused to give the documents back, even when some of his longest-serving advisers warned of peril and some flew to Mar-a-Lago to beg him to return them.
Later, facing a grand jury subpoena, the former president worked quietly with his aide Walt Nauta, a former Naval Petty Officer, to move the classified documents without telling his own lawyers, leading to a false attestation that every document had been returned.
I can only assume if asked about his plans for the future, Trump may express a strong desire to meet Lonni Willison and smoke some crack with her.
Forty year old former fitness model Loni Willison has repeatedly refused housing from the city of Los Angeles because of her self-diagnosed allergy to electricity.
'I can touch the outside of a building, but I can't go inside,' Loni said. 'I think because of the electricity, I pick up on other things too, like chemicals, batteries, fuses, wires or different types of metals. My body filters that stuff."
Luckily her allergy to buildings doesn't prevent her from enjoying smoking meth. "There's nothing anyone can do for me," she said whilst discovering a bag of tangerines in a dumpster.
Pictured with her ex-husband, equally troubled Baywatch star Jeremy Jackson, and today with her current meth aficionado.
Maybe they could make us an honest legislator.
I would have expected for VIX to be lower this afternoon.
Sold Puts: IBM 5, MCD 5 RCL 20, SHOP 5.
Moved out of: IDCC and AAL. Other stocks have a better potential and technical indicators going forward.
Paired with the advancements in AI now and into the near future, this is a powerful advancement.
Synthetic human embryos created in groundbreaking advance
Exclusive: Breakthrough could aid research into genetic disorders but raises serious ethical and legal issues
Analysis: advances leave legislators needing to catch up
Scientists have created synthetic human embryos using stem cells, in a groundbreaking advance that sidesteps the need for eggs or sperm..........
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jun/14/synthetic-human-embryos-created-in-groundbreaking-advance
1/2 of the Feds were for more hikes.
As the DJI were down around 400 points, the following Puts were sold: IBM 5, PANW 5, O 10, MOMO 20, JPM 3, SHOP 5.
Waiting for buyers for the following Puts: MCD 5, IDCC 10, RCL 20, JNJ 5.
Not surprising based on core CPI. This is a "hawkish pause". Could be as many as 4 more rate hikes.
2 more rate hikes this year to the goal of 5.6%.
It should be more volatile after 2 pm than it had been for several days.
10 Puts for IDCC were bought back also.
The market has been selling off for the last couple of hours as everybody rebalances and/or raises cash to hopefully be ready for the Fed announcement. The market normally will jerk one way and then the other at 2:00 and then more volatility when JP begins to speak.
santefe, One key aspect missing from your analysis is the fact that both the Rep and Dem hierarchy have long been mere branches of the same tree / power structure, what Eisenhower called called the 'Military Industrial Complex'. An expanded term for it today would be the Financial Military Media Security Complex. It's an oligarchical structure, and a key goal is to deflect criticism away from itself by keeping the public divided into Red/Blue and permanently squabbling - a classic 'divide + rule' technique. The media is a key cog in maintaining the permanent divisions.
Anyway, something to consider. The public (us) have a lot more in common with each other, sharing as we do a common enemy (the oligarchy). So the media (a propaganda arm of the oligarchy) must keep the public divided. The concept is simple, and has been used throughout history, from the Romans to the British Empire, down to the present day. You are a brainy guy, and probably already realize this, or at least suspect it. Anyway, just my 2 cents :o)
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Indeed my 5% will be just fine to collect while I wait for a retreat or if we have a very long upward trend I shall go long stocks and sell Covered Calls and make that monthly.
You could save on buying a thermometer, hehe.
That's fine with me. Treasuries and munis at 5%+ until November of 2024. I'll be posting pictures of the fish I catch. Of course you can't eat the fish you catch in the Chesapeake but you can sport fish.
Bought back JPM 3 Puts, JNJ 5 Puts, AAL 20 Puts, TME 10 Puts and MOMO 15 Puts. Raised cash level to the desired level of 25%. The plan is to sell Puts if we drop about 1-2%, and if we do not drop then slower tempo in reselling Puts. I do not plan to resell all 20 in AAL or maybe TME less than 10.
This morning the WSJ editorial board is begging Donnie to just shut up. It turns out Rupert is upset that Biden's DOJ is keeping Trump in the spotlight because Rupert knows Donnie has no chance of winning in 2024. The WSJ editors ask GOP primary voters to read the indictment, (they provide a handy link).
I've not heard such anguish and whining at the Journal since Tricky Dick went down. I asked ChatGPT to write a haiku celebrating this moment. Hilarious, sounds like a 13 year old who realized Liam Payne doesn't know she exists.
In darkest abyss,
Anguish devours my essence,
Soul screams, trapped in pain.
- The Wall Street Journal editorial board
I am being sarcastic: Why make a decision on whether to continue hikes or just end, so pause until election?
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