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Bigworld, Gold futures - 2404, and silver - 28.85.
Wow, this has been some move. At the end of Feb, gold was ~ 2060, and on March 1st it took off, and so far is up 17%. The way it's moving, 2500 could come next week, and that would put it up over 20%. Over the same time period, silver has gone from 22.91 to 28.85, so up over 25%. Usually it would take a falling US dollar to get gold moving strongly upward, but the dollar is actually up modestly since Mar 1, so go figure.
With such a sudden runup in gold, one possible explanation is that some key players have become aware of a coming crisis, so they are piling into gold. With the Middle East teetering on disaster for months, that would be the obvious possibility. It appears the Netanyahu gang have pivoted away from the Gaza operation, and are moving into the next phase against Syria, Lebanon --> Iran. So the broader 'US bombs Iran' scenario might be starting to unfold in the period ahead, with the first step being to initiate military strikes within Iran itself, and growing from there.
Just a guess, but I'm thinking that it might be time to start reducing the stock allocation. In addition to the geopolitical landmines, it looks like the Fed's % cut plans are being pushed back, and the election uncertainty will be growing as a negative factor for the markets.
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Bigworld, Looks like a setup designed to drag the US into attacking Iran -
>>> U.S. Warns of Imminent Attack on Israeli Assets by Iran or Proxies
Wall Street Journal
by Warren P. Strobel
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-warns-of-imminent-attack-on-israeli-assets-by-iran-or-proxies/ar-BB1lpTb8?OCID=ansmsnnews11
WASHINGTON—U.S. intelligence reports show that an attack on Israeli assets by Iran or its proxies could be imminent, U.S. officials said Wednesday, as the top American military commander for the Middle East headed to Israel to coordinate a response.
Iran has publicly threatened to retaliate for a strike in Syria on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus last week, presumed to be the work of Israel, that killed top Iranian military officials, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force.
Syria and Iran accused Israel of carrying out the attack, which killed Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who managed Iranian paramilitary operations in Syria and Lebanon, according to Iranian state media and U.S. officials. Zahedi was the highest-ranking Iranian military official to be killed since the January 2020 U.S. assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.
The U.S. has said it wasn’t involved in the strike in Syria and received no previous warning from Israel that it planned to conduct the attack.
It is unclear whether Iran is planning to conduct a direct strike on Israeli targets or use one of its Middle East proxies. In the past, Tehran has appeared eager to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel or the U.S. and worked via proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-backed groups in Iraq.
But U.S. defense officials warned that Iran could use its own military forces this time to demonstrate a forceful response to Zahedi’s death.
President Biden said on Wednesday that Iran is “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel.”
“As I told [Israeli] Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden told reporters. “Let me say it again: ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
The Biden administration has passed messages to Iran saying that it wasn’t involved in the Israeli strike in Damascus and would hold Iran accountable if it attacked U.S. forces or assets, U.S. officials say. Iran has sent its own messages to the U.S., Iranian officials have said.
Mohammad Jamshidi, the deputy chief of staff to Iran’s president, said in a tweet on April 5 that Tehran had warned the U.S. “not to get dragged in Netanyahu’s trap.”
The U.S. reached out Wednesday to countries in the region to ask them to encourage Iran to avoid escalation, a U.S. official said.
Israeli officials have vowed to strike back if the country is attacked by Iran. The rhetoric on both sides has raised concerns about a wider Middle East war six months after Hamas attacked Israel, leaving more than 1,200 people dead, according to Israel, and prompting an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip. That offensive has resulted in the death of more than 33,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, according to Palestinian health officials, whose figures don’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.
Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, had planned to travel to Israel before the strike in Damascus, U.S. defense officials said, primarily to iron out logistics for a U.S. temporary pier set to be placed in northern Gaza to expand humanitarian aid deliveries.
He now is expected to leave for Israel this week to also discuss a possible Iranian attack and how the U.S. could respond, the officials said. Kurilla is expected to meet with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
While the Pentagon doesn’t discuss whether it is currently adjusting forces in response to potential threats, U.S. military forces in the region had already been in a heightened state since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday on X that the strikes in Syria constituted an attack on Iranian soil and that Israel “should be punished, and it will be punished.” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded that if Iran attacks Israel from Iranian soil, Israel would retaliate inside Iran.
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>>> Why Are Gold Bar Sales Surging at Costco?
The New York Times
by Rebecca Carballo
April 11, 2024
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-bar-sales-surging-175059774.html
Alongside its $1.50 hot dog and soda combo, gallon tubs of mayonnaise and value packs of socks, Costco, the warehouse retailer, has been selling gold bars since October.
Now, Costco is selling up to $200 million worth of gold and silver each month, according to an analysis from Wells Fargo.
Online forums and Reddit threads have cropped up where customers give one another advice on how to purchase the bars before they sell out.
“I’ve gotten a couple of calls that people have seen online that we’ve been selling one-ounce gold bars, yes, but when we load them on the site, they’re typically gone within a few hours,” Richard Galanti, Costco’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in an earnings call in September.
Costco started selling gold bars in October.
Costco is now selling one-ounce, 24-karat gold bars, according to its online store. The bars can be purchased only by members, and the price varies based on market rates. As of Thursday, the bars were sold out for members online, but The Wall Street Journal reported that shoppers purchased them for around $2,000 in December.
Costco has also been selling silver coins, advertised as 99.9% pure silver, since January, according to an analyst report from Wells Fargo.
People buy gold in times of turmoil.
The precious metal has set a series of records as it surged to $2,350 per troy ounce, up roughly $300 since the start of March.
Buying gold becomes more common in times of economic turmoil. Although the U.S. economic outlook has improved and inflation has slowed, it remains higher than the targets from the Federal Reserve, said Sadiq S. Adatia, the chief investment officer for BMO Global Asset Management. And on Wednesday, a key inflation rate was revealed to be stronger than expected.
Investors have said they were puzzled about the rally.
Geopolitical concerns could also be a factor in an increasing interest in gold, Adatia said. There has been more interest in gold since Ukraine’s currency collapsed after Russia’s invasion, he said.
For those looking to purchase gold for the first time, Costco provides familiarity and ease, Adatia said.
“They make it convenient,” he said. “People can physically go in and pick it up and that’s it, versus opening up an account and buying gold shares.”
How much is Costco profiting from this?
Probably not too much.
Given its pricing and shipping costs, it’s likely a “very low profit business at best,” analysts with Wells Fargo wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
Costco sold more than $100 million of gold during its first quarter, or the three-month period ending on Sept. 30 last year, Galanti said on a December earnings call. However, those sales have likely grown since then and may now be running at $100 million to $200 million per month, which could increase its sales figures by 1%.
“The reason that we looked at this is that it’s becoming a larger contributor to sales for them,” said Edward Kelly, managing director of equity research at Wells Fargo. “It’s not that $100 or $200 million a month is a lot for Costco, but it’s new business and they didn’t have that business last year.”
In the three-month period ending on Dec. 31, Costco’s e-commerce sales grew 18% compared with the same period a year earlier, driven in part by demand for the precious metals, Galanti told investors on an earnings call in March.
Investing in metals can be volatile.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has urged caution when buying gold because precious metals can be highly volatile.
“Like other commodities, precious metal prices rise as demand goes up, so when economic anxiety or instability is high, the people who typically profit from precious metals are the sellers,” the agency said in a statement.
The commission likely puts that warning out to signal that it is not a guaranteed investment, said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. He recommends the average person invest 3% to 5% of their assets in gold.
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Bigworld, It's great to hear the culture was negative, and that things can move ahead. While having surgery again will be an ordeal, regaining your mobility will be great, and you can resume a regular life :o)
Thanks for the stock ideas. Nuclear and Copper do seem like the logical winners in the 'electric everything' paradigm. I have some URA, but wonder how they can pay a 5.8% yield when the stocks it holds don't seem to pay much in dividends (?) Same with URNM, which yields 3.5%, so I must be missing something.
With copper COPX seems like a good way to go, and SCCO is another vehicle. I've been waiting for a pullback, but so far these keep plowing higher, so I guess some patience will be required. For dividends, RIO and PICK seem like solid vehicles. PICK also has some steel stocks (STLD, NUE), which have been doing great in recent years.
Nice to see gold and silver finally moving. Looks like silver is homing in on 30, then probably some consolidation.
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gfp: I see the morning numbers on gold and silver. I'm cautiously optimistic. The 10 interest rate is dropping a little. We have inflation numbers tomorrow. I'm encouraged. But so far the miners are moving up but much slower than what they have done in the past when the spot prices of the metals are rising fairly rapidly. I'd like to see a bigger upward move on the miners. I'd like to diversify a bit more with an eye toward dividend yields now that I'm planning to mostly retire at the end of the year.
My knee aspiration culture came back negative. I'm cleared to return to work. I plan to work until mid June. My surgery date is set at Wednesday June 19th. I'm taking another 2 month leave to recover from that. Revisions to a total knee are more difficult to recover from. They have to cut away more bone and use larger hardware that is set in deeper into my long bones. I had an easy time recovering from the first TKA. This time around it's going to be a lot tougher.
gfp: I have a small position in UEC. I wish I had bought more. It's done really well. My biggest individual uranium stock is Cameco (CCJ). I have my eye on Denison Mines (DNN) but don't own any yet. And I have some URA. I'm getting influenced by BAR. I like good dividend plays now, especially in IRAs. You can't beat URA yield while you wait for capital gains. I view it as a core hold investment. I also own RIO for it's copper exposure primarily. The yield isn't bad either. I bought it in late 2021, saw it surge higher, then plummet below my buy in. But I held on. I'm currently green on the stock but I view it as a long term hold due to my hard asset focus. Electronics need copper. I have some COPX also for easy diversity in the copper space.
gfp: Like most of the apparatchiks of the Biden/Obama regime Blinken is pretty much an idiot.
Ukraine attacks nuclear power plant -
(mad bomber Zelensky strikes again)
>>> What are the risks at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after drone attack?
Reuters
By Guy Faulconbridge and Francois Murphy
April 8, 2024
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nuclear-power-plant-eye-ukraine-war-2024-04-08/
MOSCOW/VIENNA, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia said Ukraine struck the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station controlled by Russian forces three times on Sunday and demanded the West respond, though Kyiv said it had nothing to do with the attacks.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has long warned of the risks of a disaster at Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear plant, and urged an end to fighting in the area. The plant is just 500 km (300 miles) from the site of the world's worst nuclear accident, the 1986 Chornobyl disaster.
What nuclear material is at the Zaporizhzhia plant, what are the risks and why are Russia and Ukraine fighting over it?
WHAT IS IT AND WHAT WAS ITS CAPACITY?
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has six Soviet-designed VVER-1000 V-320 water-cooled and water-moderated reactors containing Uranium 235. They were all built in the 1980s, though the sixth only came online in the mid-1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. All but one of the reactors are in cold shutdown. Reactor unit 4 is in "hot shutdown", mainly for heating purposes. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says that fighting a war around a nuclear plant has put nuclear safety and security in "constant jeopardy".
WHAT HAPPENED ON APRIL 7?
Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, said Ukraine attacked the plant three times on Sunday with drones, first injuring three near a canteen, then attacking a cargo area and then the dome above reactor No. 6.
IAEA experts at the site went to the three locations of the attacks and confirmed there had been an attack. "Russian troops engaged what appeared to be an approaching drone," the IAEA said. "This was followed by an explosion near the reactor building."
"While the team so far has not observed any structural damage to systems, structures, and components important to nuclear safety or security of the plant, they reported observing minor superficial scorching to the top of the reactor dome roof of Unit 6 and scoring of a concrete slab supporting the primary make-up water storage tanks," the IAEA said.
The IAEA did not say directly who was to blame for the attacks. A Ukrainian intelligence official said Kyiv had nothing to do with any strikes on the station and suggested they were the work of Russians themselves. (lol)
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
Russian forces took control of the plant in early March 2022, weeks after invading Ukraine. Special Russian military units guard the facility and a unit of Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, runs the plant. Nuclear reactors' containment structures like Zaporizhzhia's are made of steel-lined reinforced concrete designed to withstand the impact of a small plane crash so there is little immediate risk from a minor attack on those structures. A 1989 study by the U.S. Department of Energy found that the model of containment structure used in Zaporizhzia "exhibits vulnerabilities to the effects of an aircraft crash" and a fighter jet crashing downwards into the dome, where the structure is thinner, could penetrate it, causing concrete chunks and aircraft engine parts to fall inside.
External power lines essential to cooling nuclear fuel in the reactors are a softer potential target. Cooling fuel even in reactors in cold shutdown is necessary to prevent a nuclear meltdown. Since the war began the plant has lost all external power eight times, most recently in December last year, forcing it to rely on emergency diesel generators for power. Water is also needed to cool fuel. Pressurised water is used to transfer heat away from the reactors even when they are shut down, and pumped water is also used to cool down removed spent nuclear fuel from the reactors. Without enough water, or power to pump the water, the fuel could melt down and the zirconium cladding could release hydrogen, which can explode.
WHAT ABOUT THE SPENT FUEL?
Besides the reactors, there is also a dry spent fuel storage facility at the site for used nuclear fuel assemblies, and spent fuel pools at each reactor site that are used to cool down the used nuclear fuel. Without water supply to the pools, the water evaporates and the temperatures increase, risking a fire that could release a number of radioactive isotopes. An emission of hydrogen from a spent fuel pool caused an explosion at reactor 4 in Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
WHAT HAPPENS IN A MELTDOWN?
A meltdown of the fuel could trigger a fire or explosion that could release a plume of radionuclides into the air which could then spread over a large area. The Chornobyl accident spread Iodine-131, Caesium-134, Strontium-90 and Caesium-137 across parts of northern Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, northern and central Europe. Nearly 8.4 million people in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine were exposed to radiation, according to the United Nations. Around 50 deaths are directly attributed to the disaster itself.
But 600,000 "liquidators", involved in fire-fighting and clean-up operations, were exposed to high doses of radiation. Hundreds of thousands were resettled. There is mounting evidence that the health impact of the Chornobyl disaster was much more serious than initially presented at the time and in the years following the accident. Incidence of thyroid cancer in children across swathes of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine increased after the accident. There was a much higher incidence of endocrine disorders, anaemia and respiratory diseases among children in contaminated areas.
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Bigworld, Silver futures over 28, and gold up also (2371), so nice to see the metals finally getting some long overdue upside :o) Looking at the silver chart, it looks like a run to 30 is underway.(2020-21 highs) :o)
For gold it's tougher to pick an upside target since it's in uncharted territory, but an old rule of thumb with a Cup + Handle breakout is that the upside move will match the size (depth) of the Cup, so that would suggest an eventual upside target of around 3000.
These TA / chart rules may sound fanciful, but they are very useful since everyone on Wall Street uses these same rules, so they become self fulfilling. Chart patterns also accurately reflect the human 'herd behavior' aspects (greed, fear) that are repeated over and over, even in computerized trading since the algorithms that determine buy / sell points are designed by humans.
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Bigworld. Speaking of nuclear energy, there's been some wild activity among some US utility stocks with nuclear exposure. Check out the charts for CEG, VST, and TLNE --> straight up for months, mostly based on the idea that the rapid growth of AI / data centers will require the steadiness of nuclear power (article excerpt below).
Btw, just curious which stocks / ETFs you are using for nuclear exposure? Thanks. I have URA and NLR, and also got a small amount BWXT on Friday. BWXT has both US Navy exposure as well as the commercial side. It's had a big run, but has consolidated somewhat over the last month, although still not anything close to cheap.
CCJ seems like an obvious choice, though the broad ETF (URA) has over 20% in CCJ, so I figure that's one way to go, and URNM is another ETF. Both URA and URNM have high expense ratios though (0.69%, 0.75% respectively), but also pay a nice dividend (5.8% and 3.5%). Likewise with NLR, and it has some exposure to the nuclear utilities.
Fwiw, I had all these last Fall but then decided to exit, so missed out on much of the move. Now back in with small amounts (URA, NLR, BWXT). On the regular mining side I have RIO and PICK. Thanks for any additional ideas :o)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174146014
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Bigworld, Here are Blinken's statements on Ukraine, from the State Dept website (below). It doesn't sound nearly as imminent as Kunstler said (NATO membership 'ASAP'), but more ambiguous -- to 'build a bridge to that membership, create a clear pathway'.
Fwiw, I think the idea has been to isolate and wear down Russia with an extended war, similar to the US strategy back in the 1980s with the 10 year Russia / Afghanistan war, which was originally cooked up by Zbigniew Brzezinski, and culminated in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The US/West presumably believe a similar approach could work again, using Ukraine as the battleground for the proxy war. An extremely dangerous strategy, to say the least -
>>> Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Before Their Meeting
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-ukrainian-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-before-their-meeting-10/
REMARKS
ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE
NATO HEADQUARTERS
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM
APRIL 4, 2024
SECRETARY BLINKEN: It’s very good to be with my friend and colleague Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister of Ukraine. We just came from a session with all NATO Allies and Foreign Minister Kuleba, and I think it’s safe to say that the support for Ukraine, the determination of every country represented here at NATO remains rock solid. We will do everything we can; Allies will do everything that they can to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to continue to deal with Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, an aggression that gets worse with every passing day. And we’ve seen that just in the month of March with thousands of missiles, rockets, projectiles launched at Ukrainians and Ukraine’s cities and towns, its electricity grid – and that continues.
We’re also here at NATO to talk about the summit that’s upcoming in the summer in Washington, celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Alliance. Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose of the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership and to create a clear pathway for Ukraine moving forward. We’ve done a lot of work on that over the last couple of days here in Brussels, a lot more work to be done between now and the summit, but we will see, I think, at the summit very strong support for Ukraine going forward and its relationship with NATO.
But we’re equally focused, as I said, on the immediate and on Ukraine’s needs today, tomorrow, the day after to help it withstand this ongoing aggression from Russia. We’ll talk about all of that and the work that our two countries continue to do together.
The final point is this: The fight that Ukraine has on its hands is not only Ukraine’s fight; it’s everyone’s fight. Because the aggression being committed by Russia is not only an aggression against Ukraine and its people, it’s an aggression against the very principles that lie at the heart of the international system. If Russia were somehow to succeed in Ukraine, if we did not continue to stand with Ukraine, the message to would-be aggressors everywhere is it’s open season; you can get away with it too.
And so it’s imperative that Congress move forward with a supplemental budget request that President Biden made for additional assistance to Ukraine. It’s not only in Ukraine’s interest; it’s profoundly in our own. And we have dozens of allies as well who feel the same way, who are more than picking up their share of the burden. And the supplemental will help ensure that we can continue to deliver for Ukraine because Ukraine is delivering for us, fighting the fight every day to uphold these principles that Russia’s aggressing and that matter to the United States and matter to every country in NATO.
FOREIGN MINISTER KULEBA: Thank you for the kind and strong words that you said just now, but also in the meeting behind the closed doors. I didn’t want to spoil the birthday party for NATO, but I felt compelled to deliver a very sobering message on behalf of Ukrainians about the state of Russian air attacks on my country, destroying our energy system, our economy, killing civilians. And I urged Allies today to provide Ukraine with new additional air defense systems, the best of which is Patriot. This is the only system that effectively intercepts ballistic missiles. In March only, Ukraine suffered from 94 ballistic missiles – 94 ballistic missiles were shot at Ukraine.
As a result of the discussions that we had and these strong encouraging messages from Secretary Blinken, Allies will undertake an exercise of allocating, of finding this – identifying this additional air defense systems in order to bring them to Ukraine, to provide them to Ukraine, and help defend our skies.
Of course, I also listened carefully to the discussion, to the comments related to the upcoming Washington Summit. It is up for – up to Allies themselves to decide on the form and the content of the next step towards Ukraine’s membership in NATO. I understand the decision has been taken today to task the military – military part of the Alliance with designing what that step could be. And we will be looking forward to the outcome, but, of course, we believe that Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO and that this should happen sooner – rather sooner – sooner rather than later. So we will be looking forward to the outcome of these deliberations.
Finally, I would like to thank the people of the United States, the Biden administration, and those forces in Congress who work tirelessly on finding a solution to a very – to a problem that seems to be very simple; just put something to the vote, put the law to the vote. No one has doubts that the law will be voted by overwhelming majority, but overcoming this last obstacle is crucial. It has to happen as soon as possible. We heard the latest messages coming from Washington, and we hope that this will be delivered. Thank you.
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Thanks.
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gfp: Unless the world's scientists can perfect fusion energy creation and are able to commercialize it at scale then uranium will be our only viable source for long term electricity generation. Solar panels as best left to rooftop installations and windmills are a total folly from a resource perspective, and they cause wildlife problems to boot. So I have to think that uranium is going to be our best alternative for the next 50 years at least. Instead of fighting unnecessary wars we should be building nukes all over the world. Energy drives GDP which accounts for our collective standard of living. Without adequate energy we can't run the world as it exists. Without energy our standard of living drops by centuries and billions of people on the planet will die.
>>> All eyes on inflation print as Q1 earnings season kicks off: What to know this week
Yahoo Finance
by Josh Schafer
April 7, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/all-eyes-on-inflation-print-as-q1-earnings-season-kicks-off-what-to-know-this-week-115748545.html
A robust jobs report couldn't save stocks from weekly losses as a spike in oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East and worries over the Federal Reserve's rate cut path put a damper on the market's hot start to the year.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the losses, falling nearly 2.3%, or more than 900 points. This marked the Dow's worst weekly performance in more than a year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell nearly 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.8%.
In the week ahead, a fresh reading on inflation and the start of first quarter earnings season will greet investors.
On the corporate front, JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Citi (C) are set to report earnings along with Delta Air Lines (DAL).
Elsewhere in economic news, minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting and an update on consumer sentiment are on the schedule.
The rate debate
While the Fed maintained its forecast for lowering interest rates three times this year at its last meeting, there's growing discussion about whether the central bank will make fewer cuts — or even hold off on them altogether.
On Thursday, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari suggested the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year if inflation progress stalls. And after the March jobs report showed the labor market remains remarkably resilient, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk said the report is in line with his previous call for no cuts this year. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
"We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year," Sløk wrote in a note to clients.
Others believe Friday's data showed some positive developments on the supply side of the labor market, helping bolster the case that a strong labor market and wage growth won't necessarily fuel inflation.
"We see the report as supporting Chair Powell's view that the Fed can start a cautious and gradual easing cycle later this year — as long as the incoming data on inflation show improvement," Bank of America US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a research note on Friday.
Price check
The week ahead will provide another update on the inflation story with the release of the March Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. After some have noted seasonal effects could have caused sticky inflation readings to start the year, economists will be closely watching to see if inflation returned to its downward trend in March.
Wall Street expects an annual gain of 3.5% for headline CPI, which includes the price of food and energy, a noted increase from the 3.2% headline number in February. Prices are set to rise 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, in line with February's rise.
On a "core" basis, which strips out the food and energy prices, inflation is expected to have risen 3.7% year over year, a slowdown from the 3.8% increase seen in February. Monthly core price increases are expected to clock in at 0.3%, slower than the 0.4% increases seen in January and February.
"The March CPI report will be a key indication of whether the pickup in inflation at the start of 2024 was a function of early-year noise or if inflation's journey back to the Fed's target has been drawn out materially," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients. "We believe it will show hints of both dynamics at play."
A new earnings season kicks off
Delta is set to report earnings on Wednesday before the bell, an appetizer for investors before a slew of the nation's largest financial institutions, including JPMorgan, officially usher in the first quarter reporting season on Friday.
Broadly, Wall Street expects the first quarter to set the tone for a robust year of earnings growth among S&P 500 companies. Consensus expects first quarter growth for S&P 500 companies of 3.2% compared to the year prior. For the full year, Wall Street sees S&P 500 earnings growing 10.9%.
From a broad perspective, two key themes to watch will be which sectors are seeing earnings growth and, as always, how company executives think the current economic environment will impact the rest of their year.
Within the sector action, Wall Street strategists will be closely following whether earnings pick up in areas outside of technology, as they've recently helped lead a broadening of the stock market rally.
Part of that rally has been backed by an expectation that earnings will begin to grow among the 493 S&P companies that weren't a part of the Magnificent Seven-led rally in 2023. Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist Binky Chadha believes signs of that earnings rotation will begin this quarter with megacap growth and tech seeing slower year-over-year earnings growth than the prior quarter.
"We can always talk about price action and whether, you know, the rally is widening but at the end it's about earnings and fundamentals," Chadha told Yahoo Finance. "We think outside megacap tech, you'll see a pickup in earnings growth, whereas for megacap tech you'll see the beginning of a slowdown basically in earnings growth."
While Chadha isn't predicting a moment where the floor falls out during tech earnings this quarter, slower sequential growth in that sector met with a pickup in earnings in other sectors should "encourage" further rotation in the market, he said.
Weekly calendar
Monday
Economic data: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, March (3.04% previously)
Earnings: No notable earnings.
Tuesday
Economic data: NFIB Small Business Optimism, March (90.0 expected, 89.4 previously)
Earnings: WD-40 (WDFC), Tilray (TLRY)
Wednesday
Economic data: Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.4% previously); Core CPI, month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); CPI, year-over-year, March (+3.5% expected, +3.2% previously); Core CPI, year-over-year, March (+3.7% expected, +3.8% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-over-year, March (+1.1% previously) MBA M
Mortgage Applications, week ending April 5 (-0.6%); FOMC meeting minutes
Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Rent the Runway (RENT)
Thursday
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending April 6 (221,000 previously); Producer Price Index, month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.6% previously); PPI, year-over-year, March (+1.6% previously)
Earnings: CarMax (KMX), Constellation Brands (STZ)
Friday
Economic data: Import prices, month-over-month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.3% previously); Export prices, month-over-month, March (+0.1% expected, +0.8 previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April preliminary (80.0 expected, 79.4 previously);
Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Progressive (PGR), State Street (STT), Wells Fargo (WFC)
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Schumer and Pelosi are finally right about something -
>>> Chuck Schumer calls for new elections in Israel, breaking with Benjamin Netanyahu <<<
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174079952
>>> Pelosi joins call for Biden to stop transfer of US weapons to Israel <<<
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pelosi-joins-call-for-biden-to-stop-transfer-of-us-weapons-to-israel/ar-BB1l9tVZ?OCID=ansmsnnews11
---
>>> Why a near-miss cyberattack put US officials and the tech industry on edge
Reuters
by Raphael Satter
April 5, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-near-miss-cyberattack-put-110219091.html
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -German software developer Andres Freund was running some detailed performance tests last month when he noticed odd behavior in a little known program. What he found when he investigated has sent shudders across the software world and drawn attention from tech executives and government officials.
Freund, who works for Microsoft out of San Francisco, discovered that the latest version of the open source software program XZ Utils had been deliberately sabotaged by one of its developers, a move that could have carved out a secret door to millions of servers across the internet.
Security experts say it’s only because Freund spotted the change before the latest version of XZ had been widely deployed that the world was spared a digital security crisis.
“We really dodged a bullet,” said Satnam Narang, a security researcher with Tenable who has been tracking the fallout from the find. “It is one of those moments where we have to wipe our brow and say, ‘We were really lucky with this one.’”
The near-miss has refocused attention on the safety of open source software – free, often volunteer-maintained programs whose transparency and flexibility mean they serve as the foundation for the internet economy.
Many such projects depend on a tiny circle of unpaid volunteers fighting to get out from under a pile of demands for fixes and upgrades.
XZ, a suite of file compression tools packaged into distributions of the Linux operating system, was long maintained by a single author, Lasse Collin.
In recent years, he appeared to be under strain.
In a message posted to a public mailing list in June 2022, Collin said he was dealing with "longterm mental health issues" and hinted that he working privately with a new developer named Jia Tan and that “perhaps he will have a bigger role in the future.”
Update logs available through the open source software site Github show that Tan’s role quickly expanded. By 2023 the logs show Tan was merging his code into XZ, a sign that he had won a trusted role in the project.
But cybersecurity experts who’ve scoured the logs say that Tan was masquerading as a helpful volunteer. Over the next few months, they say, Tan introduced a nearly invisible backdoor into XZ.
Collin didn’t return messages seeking comment and said on his website that he would not respond to reporters until he understood the situation well enough to do so.
Tan did not return messages sent to his Gmail account. Reuters has been unable to ascertain who Tan is, where he is, or who he was working for, but many of those who've examined his updates believe Tan is a pseudonym for an expert hacker or group of hackers -- likely one working on behalf of a powerful intelligence service.
“This is not kindergarten stuff,” said Omkhar Arasaratnam, the general manager of the Open Source Security Foundation, which works to defend projects like XZ. “This is incredibly sophisticated.”
‘WE LUCKED OUT’
Tan could easily have gotten away with it had it not been for Freund, the Microsoft developer, whose curiosity was piqued when he noticed the latest version of XZ intermittently using an unexpected amount of processing power on the system he was testing.
Microsoft declined to make Freund available for an interview, but in a publicly-available email and posts to social media, Freund said a series of easy-to-miss clues prompted him to discover the backdoor.
The find “really required a lot of coincidences,” Freund said on the social network Mastodon.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella congratulated Freund over the weekend, saying in a post to the social network X that he loved seeing how the developer, “with his curiosity and craftsmanship, was able to help us all.”
In the open source community, the discovery has been sobering. The volunteers who maintain the software that underpins the internet aren't strangers to the idea of little pay or recognition, but the realization that they were now being hunted by well-resourced spies pretending to be Good Samaritans was “incredibly intimidating,” said Arasaratnam, of the Open Source Security Foundation.
Government officials are also weighing the implications of the near-miss, which has underlined concerns about how to protect open source software. Assistant National Cyber Director Anjana Rajan told Politico that “there’s a lot of conversations that we need to have about what we do next” to protect open source code."
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) says it has been leaning on U.S. companies that use open source software to plow resources back into the communities that build and maintain it. CISA adviser Jack Cable told Reuters the burden was on tech companies not just to vet open software but to “contribute back and help build the sustainable open source ecosystem that we get so much value from.”
It’s not clear that software companies are properly incentivized to do so. Online open source mailing lists are teeming with complaints about tech giants demanding that volunteers troubleshoot issues with open source software those companies use to make billions of dollars.
Whatever the solution, almost everyone agrees the XZ episode shows something has to change.
“We got unreasonably lucky here,” said Freund in another Mastodon post. “We can't just bank on that going forward.”
<<<
---
Ombow, Just curious if you felt that earthquake today? It was apparently centered in N Jersey, but felt at least up to Connecticut. Here in the Phila suburbs it was fairly strong, with the condo building shaking for around 5 seconds. I know some people from California, and they get them routinely. It's unnerving, but luckily no apparent structural damage -
Ombow, >> mesmerized with lies <<
Yes, that's the media. Therefore you can't trust the information presented. As a general rule, when the media says something, the actual truth is likely to be the opposite.
Frank Zappa's had it right with his ode to the media called 'I am the slime' -
I am gross and perverted
I'm obsessed and deranged
I have existed for years
But very little has changed
I'm the tool of the Government
And industry too
For I am destined to rule
And regulate you
I may be vile and pernicious
But you can't look away
I make you think I'm delicious
With the stuff that I say
I'm the best you can get
Have you guessed me yet?
I'm the slime oozin' out
From your TV set
You will obey me while I lead you
And eat the garbage that I feed you
Until the day that we don't need you
Don't go for help, no one will heed you
Your mind is totally controlled
It has been stuffed into my mold
And you will do as you are told
Until the rights to you are sold
That's right, folks
Don't touch that dial
Well, I am the slime from your video
Oozin' along on your livin' room floor
I am the slime from your video
Can't stop the slime, people, look at me go
I am the slime from your video
Oozin' along on your livin' room floor
I am the slime from your video
Can't stop the slime, people, look at me go
The Walking Dead Worshippers of Satan will follow him anywhere. He's got them mesmerized with lies.
Ombow, That does sound like an accurate description of the mainstream media, modern music, TV, movies, etc. The 'Satan' analogy is accurate.
Satanism goes mainstream -
dead man dead man bob dylan lyrics
Uttering idle words from a reprobate mind,
Clinging to strange promises, dying on the vine,
Never bein' able to separate the good from the bad,
Ooh, I can't stand it, I can't stand it,
It's makin' me feel so bad.
Dead man, dead man,
When will you rise?
Cobwebs in your mind,
Dust in your eyes.
Satan got you by the heel, there's a bird's nest in your hair.
Do you have any faith at all? Do you have any love to share?
The way that you hold your head, cursin' God with every move,
Ooh, I can't stand it, I can't stand it,
What are you tryin' to prove?
Dead man, dead man,
When will you rise?
Cobwebs in your mind,
Dust in your eyes.
The glamor ad the bright lights and the politics of sin,
The ghetto you build for me is the one you end up in,
The race of the engine that overrules your heart,
Ooh, I can't stand it, I can't stand it,
Pretending that you're so smart.
Dead man, dead man,
When will you rise?
Cobwebs in your mind,
Dust in your eyes.
What are you tryin' to overpower me with, the doctrine or the gun?
My back is already to the wall, where can I run?
The tuxedo that you're wearin', the flower in your lapel,
Ooh, I can't stand it, I can't stand it,
You want to take me down to hell.
Dead man, dead man,
When will you rise?
Cobwebs in your mind,
Dust in your eyes.
Ombow, Of course the news media would never lie to us :o)
Operation Mockingbird -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird
CIA influence on public opinion -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_influence_on_public_opinion
---
another foolish conspiracy theory - did you ever find out or figure out how the "Deep State" convinced all those Saudi Arabians to sacrifice their lives for the sake of the "Deep State" on 9/11/2001? Preposterous. Why do you believe lies? Lies are of the Devil - Satan.
Since it's a slow day -
Expanding upon the 'Trump accepts a Deep State bribe' narrative from the previous post, another possible scenario would be that the Donald has agreed to do the 'US bombs Iran' task. In return he gets to be President again, while also getting the multi-billion $ payoff from Truth Social. With Trump facing close to $500 mil in court judgements against him, the Deep State has considerable leverage, and the Donald is desperate, so he agrees to the deal. Trump also agrees to forget about the 'drain the swamp' hyperbole, and will do as he's told by the handlers.
Who knows, but at minimum it sounds like a good novel or movie plot :o)
This is the kind of stuff that goes on all the time around the world, according to John Perkins in his famous book 'Confessions of an Economic Hitman' -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_an_Economic_Hit_Man
---
Bigworld, >> Uranium stocks <<
In the nuclear sector, I went with URA and NLR to provide a wide exposure. The sector has run up over the past year, so not the bargain that it was, but still interesting. BWXT seems well positioned, with both military and commercial businesses, but the stock has been on a tear so maybe on a pullback. Another interesting one is Centrus Energy (LEU), but hasn't done much so I must be missing something, but am still new to the sector -
>>> BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Government Operations and Commercial Operations. The Government Operations segment designs and manufactures naval nuclear components, reactors, and nuclear fuel; fabrication activities; and supplies proprietary and sole-source valves, manifolds, and fittings to naval and commercial shipping customers. This segment also involved in manufacture of close-tolerance and equipment for nuclear applications; down blend government stockpiles of uranium; receives, stores, characterizes, dissolves, recovers, and purifies uranium-bearing materials; and supplies research reactor fuel elements for colleges, universities, and national laboratories, as well as components for defense applications. The Commercial Operations segment designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, and reactor components; and other auxiliary equipment, including containers for the storage of nuclear fuel and other high-level nuclear waste. This segment also offers nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, tooling delivery systems, nuclear grade materials, and precisely machined components, and related services for CANDU nuclear power plants; provides in-plant inspection, maintenance, and modification services, as well as non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions; and manufactures medical radioisotopes, radiopharmaceuticals, and medical devices. The company was formerly known as The Babcock & Wilcox Company and changed its name to BWX Technologies, Inc. in June 2015. BWX Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia. <<<
>>> Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) supplies nuclear fuel components and services for the nuclear power industry in the United States, Belgium, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) and Technical Solutions. The LEU segment sells separative work units (SWU) components of LEU; natural uranium hexafluoride, uranium concentrates, and uranium conversion; and enriched uranium products to utilities that operate nuclear power plants. The Technical Solutions segment offers technical, manufacturing, engineering, and operations services to public and private sector customers. The company was formerly known as USEC Inc. and changed its name to Centrus Energy Corp. in September 2014. Centrus Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. <<<
---
Bigworld, While on the cloak + dagger topic, here's an interesting narrative to consider concerning Trump's potential multi-billion $ bonanza with Truth Social. The big question is why did the SEC finally decide to allow the DWAC merger to go through? They presumably could have blocked it indefinitely, but why the about face, and also why in March?
One theory would be that a deal was struck between Trump and the Deep State, essentially a bribe --> we'll let you take the $ if you agree to go away. They made it clear to him that they are going to fix the digital election anyway, so take the money and promise to stay out of the political realm forever. In preparation, they hit him with close to $500 mil in legal costs / judgements, so this makes accepting the 'bribe' the only practical way out.
Anyway, this would be one explanation for the SEC's surprising about face on allowing the DWAC merger. It also explains why they did it in March, since the 6 month lockup period will end in September, allowing Trump time to cash out prior to the election. After the election in Nov, the DJT shares will be worth zip, so Trump gets his payday even though he loses the election a few weeks later. So basically a financial bribe to end the Deep State's Trump problem.
Another possible explanation for the SEC's surprising approval of the DWAC merger would be political, since it creates the impression Trump is merely running for office again to cash in on the Truth Social bonanza. That realization hurts him politically as supporters see that Trump knows he has no chance of winning, but is merely using the presidential run to save his financial skin and line his pockets.
There are a few other possible explanations, but since the SEC could have stopped the DWAC merger indefinitely, there has to be a reason for their decision to allow it.
---
Bigworld, Btw, with that bridge collision, I haven't looked into it much, but not every big event is a conspiracy. Having seen various false flag events over the years, the tendency is for us observers to start seeing conspiracies everywhere. They do happen, but with the bridge collision it seems unlikely. According to Wikipedia - >>> the ship suffered a "complete blackout" and began to drift out of the shipping channel; a backup generator supported electrical systems but did not provide power to the propulsion system. <<<
So a conspiracy narrative would have to first account for the complete blackout on the ship. The possibilities would be - 1) someone on the ship deliberately disabled the power, or 2) the power was disabled by external means. Not impossible, but more likely just a non-intentional failure within the electrical system, and then the bigger problem was that the backup system did not provide power to the propulsion system.
When we see a 'blame China / Russia' explanation for an event, that is almost always wrong, but is a convenient 'go to' smokescreen for anything that happens, ie 'Russia-gate'. Ditto with the 'blame the Arabs' explanation for events. It can happen, but more likely the real culprit is the CIA, MI-6, NATO Intelligence, Mossad, etc. Not always, but with a false flag the idea is to pin the blame on your enemy in order to justify the desired response.
Fwiw, I figure we'll be due for a 9-11 part 2 at some point in order to justify the 'US bombs Iran' scenario. Iran is close to getting nuclear weapon, so it seems inevitable that their Natanz underground facilities will have to be attacked before too long. Probably next year (?), but just a guess. Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities are reportedly under a mountain, so presumably tactical nuke bunker buster bombs will be needed. So that means - 1) the US has to do it, and 2) a big pretext event will be needed to justify the attack (ala 9-11). The alternative of allowing Iran to get nuclear weapons won't be allowed by either US foreign policy groups in power (Trilaterals or Neocons), at least that's the assumption. But lots of unknowns.
False Flag -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag
---
Bigworld, 2500 for gold by year end sounds feasible. It took 12 years to finally break through 2000 convincingly, so I figure the upside should be considerable as gold makes up for lost time.
Thanks for the Rinear update. I think he's right about the Fed wanting to help the markets remain relatively buoyant and in kumbaya mode. You said that Rinear is mainly a shorter term trader, but I figure we're in more of a buy/hold environment for the foreseeable future. Fed guidance is for 3 rate cuts this year, so that's a clear tailwind for the markets, therefore 'don't fight the Fed' seems like the logical strategy. Landmines abound though - geopolitical, election, black swans, so caution is warranted. So I figure a moderate stock allocation (28%) to take into account the risks, and a buy / hold strategy to take into account the Fed tailwind.
---
Rinear has Uranium Stocks on His Radar:
Insiders Club Update
************************************************************************************************************
?
4.4.2024
Hello all
NOTE>>>>> There's no afternoon update today. My Friend Chuck and his family are down from Upstate NY, and I'm going to scoot over and visit with them today. I cherish such times.
Yesterday was a funky day. I mentioned to you that it just felt off, especially after two big down days. When the DOW went red around 2:45 I wasn't surprised. The whole day felt "pushed" or contrived. Even the S&P dipped red for a while.
Okay, so yesterday I mentioned we need to put the uranium stocks back on radar. I feel silly, because just two weeks ago, we were watching UEC, but it wasn't doing anything. Then I mentioned EU a small domestic uranium company, but it too didn't move.
So, I moved on. Well, in the last week they've all gone on a run. Is it already too much? Or is the supply demand situation where prices have to go up because there's so little available?
Many are starting to think this is the beginning of a longer term trend as supply is pretty low and demand is indeed rising. So yes, we'll be watching CCJ, they're the leaders. But NXE , UEC, EU, DNN, and UUUU are all to be watched.
The futures this morning are bright green across the board. In early going, it looks like they're going into chips.
SMH the ETF for the semi's might be a simple play from the open. Keep an eye on that.
NOTE>>> Some folks say they didn't get last nights FIR until like 6 am. I don't know what happened there.
Okay, so we let them open things and see where it goes.
Bob Rinear's Take on the Baltimore Bridge Collapse:
*******************************************************************************************
Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary
The Bridge
When the barge hit the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, quite a few people asked me if I thought it was an accident, or it was a deliberate attack. Why would they ask me? Because for 30+ years, I've looked into the darker side of how things really work, not what they tell me about events.
For example, They told you there weren't any biolabs in Ukraine. I said we did, and was proven right. They told you that Putin blew up the Nordstream 2. I said we did it via nato proxies. I was right. They told you Ukraine wasn't suffering major losses. I said they're being slaughtered.
They told you that the United States wasn't funding both sides of this conflict.I said they were. They told you masks and vaccines were nearly 100% effective. I warned publicly "don't take that vax" They told you that COVID-19 came from a bat in a wet market in China. I told you it was manufactured in the US and spread via the Wuhan Military games.
They told you that Anthony Fauci wasn't using gain of function. I showed you proof he was.They told you that there is not a southern border crisis. Everyone said there is. They told you there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I told my readers over and over, that would be found to be a lie, an excuse for taking out yet another country.
They told you J6 was the worst attack since 9/11. I said it was an inside job, and you know I'm right. They told you lockdowns were for your health. I said the lockdowns were to destroy the middle class and small business. They told you there was no supply chain crisis. I preached about it weekly. They told you the Epstein client was a baseless conspiracy. I said for the first time in history, a woman was arrested and imprisoned for human trafficing.... to evidently no one??
They told you Donald Trump would do everything that Joe Biden is currently doing. They told you there was no elite child-trafficking ring.Meanwhile "Diddy" is being investigated along with dozens of others. They told you federal agencies don't target Americans. They have the FBI knocking on people's doors for posting their opinions on social media. They told you there was no such thing as the UniParty. There is, and you know it. They told you there was no such thing as the Deep State. Obviously. Once you finally realize how long "they" have been lying to you, the quicker you question the narrative. For absolutely everything.
So it is no wonder that dozens of folks have asked my opinion about the bridge. Well, one thing I've learned over the last 25 years is that when something big happens, give it at least 48 hours before you make your opinions up. That gives you time to weed through everything you're hearing and try and get to the truth. 72 hours is even better.
For the first few days, I could make the case that this was an accident. I grew up on sandy Hook bay, NJ. The north side of the bay is New York harbor. Barges, passenger ships, shuttles, you name it come and go out of that harbor 24/7/365. Sometimes, something goes wrong. I've seen ships stranded, grounded because they lost power and drifted onto the flats. Commuter boats have collided, despite 25 thousand dollars worth of radars and ship ID electronics. I've seen piers get crushed. In other words, accidents do indeed happen. Not every event has an angle behind it.
People asked why there were no tugs guiding this thing. Well, there was initially. The tugs got it away from the dock, got it turned around so it was in the channel and pointed out of the harbor. Then they peeled off and went on to their next job. This isn't terribly out of the ordinary. Once a ship is in the channel, and steaming along on her own power, as long as everything's working, they can send it on its merry way.
I couldn't see it as a terror attack. It's 1:30 in the morning. The bridge was almost empty, and the barge pilot called highway patrol and they shut off traffic. A terror operation would have hit it at 5 pm when there could literally be 200 lives crossing that bridge.
But as the time went on, I had no choice but to lean into the conspiracy camp on this one. There's simply too many red flags. First off the wind lie. The first reports said that a stiff north wind of 13 knots ( 15 mph) was blowing. Well, think of the side of a huge container ship like that of a huge sail. A 15 mph wind hitting directly against the port (left) side of that barge would indeed veer it to the right. But when I pulled up the NOAA maps for that night, it was almost dead calm. 2 to 3 MPH. That was a flag for me.
Next up, the redundant systems. This one gets tricky. Any ship of that size, doing operations in a port as big as Baltimore, is required by Federal law to have two power systems, completely separate from each other, along with a separate steerage system. Why this is tricky, is because while the law says that's what they have to have, it's up to the ship owner/user to make sure they work. So, the emergency back ups could have been hacked, or...not tested in some time. More on that in a minute.
A big red flag is the two minutes of missing data from the event recorder. Every ship like that one has a "black box" sort of like the airlines have. In the most crucial period of the event, it's blank. No data, no voices. That's pretty ugly.
Then there's the Chinese connection. There's a group of Chinese that have been against the CCP and the way they run the country for years. They are saying the ship was hacked via a technology they termed "Remote Towing" where they can hack the steering and electrical systems of ships like this one. Is that real? I have no solid proof, but when you see the video of the ship where the lights are out and the power is down, it looks like the redundant system kicks in, they get power back, They throw her in "full astern" to cut down the speed, and then that goes dark.
If indeed they had a way to remotely shut down the electrical system, it would account for the missing data, and the failure of the redundant system.
So, my bottom line here is that there's too many red flags for me to believe it was merely an accident. Am I 100% sure? No. When it fist happened, there was some scuttle on the loading docks where a guy working a crane said that ship had electrical issues before it ever left. If so, then the 'accident" angle could still be in play. But it's weak, and I'm not in that camp right now.
Which brings up the question, if it's not terror, then why do it? If this was deliberate, what did they expect to get out of it? Some think it's economic terror as this will disrupt shipping for a while, cause some fuel shortages in the nearby region, make workers commute a nightmare. My fear is a bit more concerning. That bridge was often used by trucks that were carrying dangerous loads, toxic loads, loads they didn't want in the Baltimore tunnel, or roads in the city. Now they've got no choice.
There's still a lot of questions, and this isn't over. But it looks like hanky-panky to me.
The Market
What a strange couple of days. On Monday and then again on Tuesday, the yield on the ten year was spiking higher and the market hated it. At one point Tuesday the DOW was down 512 points.
While we ended the day well off that low, it was a soggy day. Which led to this morning. The futures were creeping higher in the pre market, but then Fed head Bostic was on CNBC. He said he's only looking for 1 cut, and not until the 4th quarter. That hit the futures and they all plunged.
Well, at 10 the ISM services report hit, and the prices paid component fell sharply. They loved that and soon the DOW was up 120 points. All three indexes were running higher. But there was still a fly in the ointment. Powell himself was scheduled to speak at noon.
He came on stage at 12:10 and his message was the same as what he said Friday. Yeah cuts are coming, but we need to be patient and get more proof that inflation is still fading and some of the recent jumps are transitory. More Blah blah blah.
Interestingly, the DOW pulled off on his statement. It was up just 11 points after his written statement was released. Then it went green again and stayed there until about 3 pm. Then it went red again.
Very strange day indeed.
But they didn't roll over, and it's my guess they're going to want Monday and Tuesday's points back. So a decent bounce makes sense to me. But that said, we do need to watch the ten year. If it starts spiking higher again... all bets are off.
gfp: I will be disappointed if Gold is not at least $2500 by the end of the year. It should be $4000 already with the amount of borrowing/printing going on. By year end the US Treasury's #1 expense will be interest on the debt at @ $1.5 Trillion a year. That's a big chunk of the overall budget. The US will borrow at least $2.5 Trillion, which means we have to borrow just to pay interest on the debt. As the recent minibus stop gap budget deal indicates the Congress is oblivious and there are no serious voices doing anything about the spending orgy going on. Every day that goes by that we don't recognize the dangers of the exploding debt is going to result in far worse economic conditions down the road. Hard assets and paid off real estate (or real estate with an ultra low rate mortgage) are all we can do to hedge the losses the US dollar will eventually see.
High Tide (HITI) - nice break out on high volume :o)
>>> High Tide Inc. (HITI) engages in the cannabis retail business in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Retail and Wholesale segments. It operates licensed retail cannabis stores; and provides data analytics services. In addition, the company manufactures and distributes consumption accessories. Further, it sells its products through online sales via e-commerce platform. The company offers its products under the Daily High Club, DankStop, FABCBD, GC, Nuleaf, Smoke Cartel, and Blessed CBD brands. The company was formerly known as High Tide Ventures Inc. and changed its name to High Tide Inc. in October 2018. High Tide Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. <<<
---
Bigworld, >> silver <<
Silver also coming to life :o) Looking at the SLV chart, as with gold there is a quasi 12 year cup + handle (bullish), with the 3 year 'cup' having a quasi inverted head + shoulders (also bullish). It's much less classic than on the gold chart, but is easier to see now that silver is climbing. Also the 'neckline' on the silver chart is sloped, where gold's is flat and thus more 'classic'.
Anyway, looks like silver is playing catch up to gold. There is also a potential motivation for price suppression with silver, since it represents a key input cost for solar panels. Therefore keeping silver prices lower helps keep solar cost competitive with traditional types of energy. Not sure how much price suppression of silver has been going on in recent years, but like gold. it does seem to have peculiar 'smack downs' at times.
---
Ombow, Here's more on 'Ableton Live' -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ableton_Live
Looks like it could take some time to learn, but is a phenomenal tool. I see Amazon has the standard edition for $439.
Goldman - >>> Gold’s 'record march higher set to continue,' Goldman says
Yahoo Finance
by Ines Ferré·Senior
March 25, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golds-record-march-higher-set-to-continue-goldman-says-164325765.html#:~:text=Goldman%20Sachs%20analysts%20upgraded%20their,phase%2C%20barring%20any%20geopolitical%20surprise.
Gold’s roughly 8% month-to-date rally has room to grow with the precious metal poised to hit $2,300 an ounce by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
On Monday futures gained to trade as high as $2,182 an ounce. The precious metal is considered a safe haven during times of geopolitical tensions and when interest rates decrease. Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to signal that it would lower interest rates three times this year.
The Fed meeting “reinforced the market’s (and ours) expectations that three cuts are likely this year, lending renewed support to gold to test and surpass March’s earlier record high,” wrote a team of analysts led by Samantha Dart.
Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090 to $2,180 per ounce, targeting a move to $2,300 by the end of the year.
The analysts forecast gold prices in the near term will move toward another consolidation phase, barring any geopolitical surprise. However, “a substantive retracement lower will likely also be limited by resilience in physical buying channels,” wrote Dart, citing Chinese imports of the precious metal.
“Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely dormant ETF buying,” wrote Dart.
Bullion's price increases have been disconnected from recent outflows seen in gold-related ETFs. Strategists believe investors have been rotating money into bitcoin ETFs as the token roared toward new highs earlier this month.
Central banks have been buying up gold at historic levels, helping to drive up demand over the past couple of years.
Adjusted for inflation, gold hit a record in 1980 when it hit $850 per ounce, which would equal almost $3,200 in today's dollars.
<<<
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Bigworld, Goldman recently came out bullish on gold (next post), so that's a factor, and another is that Wall Street often bases its decisions on TA / charts, and this big breakout is attracting attention. I figure numerous 'macro' factors are also at work, including the growing US debt bomb, the BRICS plans for their own gold linked currency to compete with the US dollar, etc. As we know, central banks have been piling into gold for years, so global demand grows and mining output has lagged.
So the 'stars + planets' are finally aligning to produce the big breakout. The professional 'gold bugs' are always bullish, and have their reputations and livelihoods wrapped up in the bullish side, via newsletters, book sales, etc. But it looks like gold's appeal is broadening, and some of the Bitcoin crowd might also be switching over to gold. Seeing gold being sold at Costco, and selling out within hours, may have also attracted some attention. And anyone who follows TA / charts couldn't miss the extremely bullish chart pattern that had developed.
Based on the charts, this move is probably just beginning. But as you said, the big question is when does the suppression mechanism kick in? If gold is allowed to run up too much it could reinforce an inflationary vibe and thus work against the Fed's goals. So we'll see how long the party lasts, but so far it's been fun :o)
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gfp: A lot of the Metals gurus like Rick Rule have been pounding the table that the metals were going to take off any day. They were especially bullish on Silver and said that surpassing the $26 level was key. Well silver has done that. I'm seeing a nice move in the silver mining space, especially with some of my larger holdingslike Hecla Mining (HL), Pan American (PAAS) and Coeur Mining (CDE). But I remain cautiously optimistic. JP Morgan could sell Millions in futures contracts at any time to keep silver suppressed. They've done it successfully for years.
I'm looking at Ableton Live 12 if I get back into doing music -
https://www.ableton.com/en/live/?mtm_campaign=21071984808&mtm_kwd=ableton%20live&mtm_source=google&mtm_medium=cpc&mtm_cid=21071984808&mtm_group={AdGroupName}&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjw2a6wBhCVARIsABPeH1sl9t036Wl9swxUkjyCDDvtVKGT1AInobLuwGhGWys_NjVzbVLnoIsaAjyiEALw_wcB
Ombow, With Facebook I was willing to join, but got rejected, so I figure the heck with it. One of my college friends said he's on there all the time, mostly family related stuff. I'd like to follow developments with Roger Dean's latest album cover art projects, since I collect his stuff going back to 1968, and I think other artists like Jeremy Miranda are on there also. But a lot of people are also on other sites, like Twitter, so I may look into that at some point. I-Hub tends to be mainly stock related, but it's an interesting hobby for us bored retirees :o)
Btw, that advanced keyboard you posted about a while back (KORG Pa5X), is amazing, though I see it costs almost $5000, yikes. I have a decent keyboard now, so am looking at some of these digital recording setups, which can run off a desktop computer. Something like this one would probably be plenty (see below).
Btw, if you're into record collecting at all, here's a phenomenal site to find those obscure albums (link below). They used to also have unofficial / bootlegs, but had to stop those due to flak from the record companies. You can still look up unofficial releases to get info, but not to actually buy them. But all official records can be bought / sold on the site, so for anything rare this is the place to look -
Discogs - https://www.discogs.com/artist/1826912-Roger-Dean-4?type=Credits&filter_anv=0
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I think FB is a rather innocent venture barring the nefarious elements. The government already has your photo ID if you have a driver's license. It's not all a vast conspiracy by the "Deep State".
Facial recognition wasn't invented to control the populace in a 1984 Animal Farm Clockwork Orange megalockapy. I haven't suffered any ill effects from any data gleaned from my FB page. In fact, I think they would have only very little information about me.
Just upload a photo from your phone and join in on the fun instead of hiding behind the anonymity of faceless cyber activity. No reason to be paranoid about it. Does your sister do FB?
People actually see each other face to face even today!
Bigworld, Concerning the bridge related events, I doubt there's anything nefarious there (a guess), but a few years ago when all those food related building were burning / blowing up, that did seem suspicious. Not sure what was actually going on there though, and now that the internet is so censored, it's a lot more difficult to find out.
Fwiw, I don't even bother trying to find out anymore since you have to either go to sites like Rumble, or else to blogger type sites. Bloggers usually know little / nothing, and Rumble is a Peter Thiel company (intel community), and I figure his site is mainly to identify dissidents for future action (roundups, etc). That notion may sound extreme, but look at what happened to those Jan 6 people who thought they were merely going to a political protest rally, and are now in prison for up to 20 years.
Anyway, best to just chill out imo, since anything we do isn't going to make much difference anyway. Sounds defeatist, but no sense ending up like those Jan 6 guys. Anyone who was dumb enough to fall for that Q-Anon stuff deserves what they get. Or that would at least be the Darwinian way to look at it.
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Bigworld, Nice day for the metals. It seems like the miners are lagging, but hopefully they catch up soon. With gold's big breakout, the general rule is that the longer it takes for a chart pattern to form, the more dramatic and prolonged can be the ultimate breakout. If that's the case with gold (12 years to form the cup + handle), we could be in for quite a bull market. Silver also moving, now over 26 :o)
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Ombow, I think it depends on when you originally signed up on FB. I've heard that years ago it was a lot more lax. I tried to sign up right at the peak of the 'ban conservatives' hysteria, but they may have relaxed things since then. I think most of these sites make a good chunk of their money from selling the data gleaned from the site's visitors. Most likely Facebook was originally setup with the goal of accumulating facial scanning data (hence the name 'Face book'). Much of the web infrastructure like Google was originally funded by outfits like In-Q-Tel, which is an arm of the CIA -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-Q-Tel
>>> In-Q-Tel (IQT), formerly Peleus and In-Q-It, is an American not-for-profit venture capital firm based in Arlington, Virginia. It invests in companies to keep the Central Intelligence Agency, and other intelligence agencies, equipped with the latest in information technology in support of United States intelligence capability.[2] The name "In-Q-Tel" is an intentional reference to Q, the fictional inventor who supplies technology to James Bond.[5]
History
Originally named Peleus and known as In-Q-It, In-Q-Tel was founded by Norm Augustine, a former CEO of Lockheed Martin, and by Gilman Louie, who was In-Q-Tel's first CEO.[2][5][6] In-Q-Tel's mission is to identify and invest in companies developing cutting-edge technologies that serve United States national security interests. According to the Washington post, In-Q-Tel started as the idea of then CIA director George Tenet. Congress approved funding for In-Q-Tel, which was increased in later years.[7] Origins of the corporation can also be traced to Ruth A. David, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency Directorate of Science & Technology in the 1990s and promoted the importance of rapidly advancing information technology for the CIA.[5] In-Q-Tel now engages with entrepreneurs, growth companies, researchers, and venture capitalists to deliver technologies that provide superior capabilities for the CIA, DIA, NGA, and the wider intelligence community.[8] In-Q-Tel concentrates on three broad commercial technology areas: software, infrastructure and materials sciences.
Former CIA director George Tenet said,
We [the CIA] decided to use our limited dollars to leverage technology developed elsewhere. In 1999 we chartered ... In-Q-Tel. ... While we pay the bills, In-Q-Tel is independent of CIA. CIA identifies pressing problems, and In-Q-Tel provides the technology to address them. The In-Q-Tel alliance has put the Agency back at the leading edge of technology ... This ... collaboration ... enabled CIA to take advantage of the technology that Las Vegas uses to identify corrupt card players and apply it to link analysis for terrorists [cf. the parallel data-mining effort by the SOCOM-DIA operation Able Danger], and to adapt the technology that online booksellers use and convert it to scour millions of pages of documents looking for unexpected results.[9]
In-Q-Tel sold 5,636 shares of Google, worth over US$2.2 million, on November 15, 2005.[10] The shares were a result of Google's acquisition of Keyhole, Inc, the CIA-funded satellite mapping software now known as Google Earth.[11]
In August 2006, In-Q-Tel reviewed more than 5,800 business plans and invested approximately $150M in more than 90 companies.[2][12]
As of 2016, In-Q-Tel listed 325 investments, but more than 100 were kept secret, according to the Washington Post. The absence of disclosure can be due to national security concerns or simply because a startup company doesn’t want its financial ties to intelligence publicized.[7]
<<<
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I don't remember being asked for facial ID. I post a lot there. Yeah, it's a fun site. I don't see any of the nefarious stuff.
Bigworld, Probably better to cool it with the house work, travel, etc, since all that vigorous activity may have played a role in the failure of the knee last year. Who knows, but best to err on the side of caution, one would think, and just hire people to do the lawn, deck work, etc.
Also, waiting until June to get the new knee in, that's a long time. But on the other hand, the highest risk of another bacteremia is probably after the 2nd surgery, so putting it off might be better from that standpoint (?) Anyway, good luck, but logic says it's probably better to not overdo things too much. In retirement there are advantages to having a low maintenance condo, as opposed to owning the 'Ponderosa ranch'.
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https://revolver.news/2024/04/watch-something-very-strange-happening-to-bridges-in-the-us-third-incident-7-days/
I don't believe in coincidences.
gfp: I'm still awaiting culture results. I thought they would be available by now. I've messaged my surgery team. Assuming the cultures are negative I am looking at a mid June surgery date. The surgery scheduler gave me an earliest date as May 22nd. But that doesn't work for me. I have a bunch of family events in the Chicago suburbs between June 8th and June 16th. I'll drive there and back. Airports are a hassle and I like a good road trip now and then. I'll return on June 17th and do the surgery on Wed June 19th. My Surgeon only operates at the hospital in my network on Wednesdays and Thursdays. And he doesn't operate on Fridays at all. And he's in high demand. So I'm content to wait.
I'm able to do a few things. I bought a zero turn riding mower last week. They delivered it today and I mowed my acre and a half of grass with it. A little tricky to drive at first. But I'll get the hang of it. I started restaining/treating my deck. I did the stairs yesterday. I have to wash the top part and give it a couple days to dry. But it's something I can do sitting on a short garden stool. I can't let a little discomfort put my whole life on hold. I can't wait until fall to take care of at least some things. For treating the deck I use Ready Seal in a Pecan shade. Great product. Expensive. But for $200 a year (one 5 gallon can) it beats replacing an 18 x 30 foot deck. After treatment to deck looks like a piece of furniture for about a month before sun and rain dull the finish a little. Treat it every spring and the deck should outlive me.
Ombow, >> FB <<
I tried signing up for Facebook a few years ago, but didn't want to give them the required ID type face photo, so gave something else and they rejected it and then rejected a 2nd attempt, so I figured forget it. This was right after all the big social media sites started their big censorship drive, kicking off conservatives, etc. Facebook wanted a driver's license type face photo, obviously for their vast face scanning data base.
Anyway, I hear FB is otherwise a fun social media site, but I've never really been able to check it out. I have some college friends on there, and am also a fan of the artist Roger Dean who is on FB, but the site rejected me. But I never liked that douchebag Zuckerberg anyway lol..
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