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Silver is making a nice move toward 30. Once through, that key level can become the new floor, similar to what has happened with the gold chart. The process might take a while, but it's looking good. The miner's charts have lagged vrs bullion, but it could be catch up time.
The TA / chart 'rules' say that the longer it takes for a chart pattern to develop, the more dramatic can be the ultimate breakout and subsequent move. Gold and silver both formed bullish cup + handle formations over the last 12-14 years, followed by bullish inverted head + shoulders since 2020. So when the breakout and run up finally arrive, as they are now, it can be prolonged and dramatic.
On the stock side, I'm figuring the main indices will put in reasonably convincing new highs before the pullback arrives. Fwiw, I re-upped my stock exposure earlier in the week (S+P 500), so might as well grab some of the upside while it's available. Once the RSIs hits 70 (probably tomorrow or early next week), then it might be time to peel off some profits. I'd rather stay long term buy / hold, but this year is so full of landmines (geopolitical, war, election, economy, inflation, etc), I figure it might be better to just periodically take profits when they build up.
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Bigworld, Looking at stocks, they sure seem resilient at the moment. The market is basically ignoring the election and geopolitical / war stuff, and is focused on the economy, inflation, and corporate earnings.
I'm thinking there might be some juicing by the Fed, if not from active PPT, then via Powell's comments and guidance. TA / chart-wise, they need to at least put in new highs for the main indices, since once new highs are in place, the existing uptrend is reaffirmed, and the subsequent pullback is just normal profit taking. But failure to get new highs would be viewed ominously as the end of the bull uptrend. So assuming tomorrow's CPI number isn't a disaster, I'm thinking we get convincing new highs for the 3 main indices in the period ahead.
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Bigworld, Just wondering if your knee procedure is still scheduled for June? Thinking about the source of the initial bacteremia, there are several possibilities that your docs may not have considered. One is an asymptomatic oral infection. These are not that uncommon, and can easily be missed if you haven't had a full set of diagnostic xrays recently. It requires a complete set of dental xrays (periapicals) rather than just bitewings and/or a panoramic xray. The individual periapicals will show the entire tooth, root, and surrounding bone of every tooth. A panoramic xray of the entire mouth is useful, but can miss things. With a full set of periapical xrays, it's not that unusual to find teeth with associated areas of infection (apically), but with no symptoms or pain, so this is a possible source of a systemic bacteremia. The gums / gingiva is another path for bacteria to enter the bloodstream., so you need to floss at least twice / day, and have zero bleeding from the gums. Anyway, these are obvious potential sources of a bacteremia, but are easy to rule out and prevent.
Another possibility is 'leaky gut', which most American have some degree of, due to various factors. Cardiologist Steve Gundry has written extensively on the subject, but basically our intestinal walls become porous and allow bacteria and other substances to enter the vasculature surrounding the intestines, and from there the bacteria travel through the entire circulatory system. So basically a permanent low level bacteremia. This is bad enough, but add in a new knee implant, and you've got big problems. Fixing / sealing a leaky gut is not that difficult, but requires a big change in one's diet, along with the restoration of a healthy microbiome.
Anyway, those are two possible areas you may not have considered as the source of the bacteremia. The many cuts and scrapes on your legs from all that outdoor work is another obvious possibility.
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Bigworld, Thanks for the Rinear update. It's clear the US debt bomb will unravel at some point, with the timeline being the main question. I'm figuring the $40-50 trillion area is where global confidence in the dollar runs into big trouble. A guess, but that's the level I'm using for my own investment planning. At the rate we're going, the 40 tril level will be reached within a few years (see below). The official US debt is currently 34.5 tril, but has been increasing by ~1 tril every 100 days (!), so the math paints a very grim picture. Anyway, my bond allocation ladder goes out to Dec 2026, and I'm reluctant to go out much beyond that.
As Jim Rickards points out, a fiat / unbacked currency relies on confidence, and when that confidence is lost, things can snowball quickly. When Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, the dollar went full 'fiat' with no backing at all, and Kissinger / Rockefellers scrambled to cook up the Petrodollar idea, which ensured constant global demand for dollars and US Treasuries from global oil sales. The US military could also be used to intervene if an oil producing country tried to wriggle out of the dollar system. The Petrodollar system worked great for decades, but is nearing the end of the road. We're now seeing global de-dollarization of trade accelerating, the BRICS expanding and planning their own gold-linked alternative to the dollar, and countries loading up on gold. The US resorts to sanctions, de-SWIFT-ing, and wars, but meanwhile the debt bomb clock keeps ticking.
A logical strategy would be to gradually move out of financial assets (stocks / bonds) and into more hard assets, like paid-for real estate, land, gold/silver, etc. The tentative timeline for the debt bomb looks like 40 tril (2026) --> 50 tril (2029), which means the next US President is most likely captain of the Titanic. If we assume 3 trillion of new debt per year, and 50 tril as the upper boundary of global confidence in the dollar, we have until 2029 at the latest -
Mid 2024 -- 34.5 tril
Mid 2025 -- 37.5 tril
Mid 2026 -- 40.5 tril
Mid 2027 -- 43.5 tril
Mid 2028 -- 46.5 tril
Mid 2029 -- 49.5 tril
In addition to moving more into hard assets, another idea would be to move to a place like New Zealand, where a US dollar crisis should have a much lower effect. To retire to New Zealand apparently requires 1.25 mil in assets (in NZ dollars), so approx $750 K in US dollars. Moving to New Zealand would also escape the lunacy of US politics, etc.
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gfp: I finally have a day off. And it's raining here which is what usually happens on my days off.
Here is the Rinear article I wanted to forward to you.Logo3.gif
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Financial Intelligence Report
The Newsletter for people willing to take control of their financial future
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Greetings Friends!
This is today's issue of the Financial Intelligence Report
Contributing Editors: Bob Rinear, Ted, Chuck and the Crew!
Wall Street Lunacy donated by Jerome Powell, and Central Bankers the world over! Who else can print money and buy stocks?!
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Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary
Gold is still moving
Not too much interests me more than what role gold is playing on the global scene and so far, there's no question that "people want it." China's still buying, India is buying, and the price while not at the recent spike high, is significantly higher than last year.
So what brings my attention to Gold today? Well, Tick tock and "X" ( former twitter) are interesting places, where you can see just about anything. But one theme that continues to make the "news" on both is the debt clock site.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Every once in a while, something pops up on that site, almost like they're giving us hints of something coming. Well, one video maker saw what he thought was "proof" that the US is going to revalue gold, as the way to erase our insane debt. In his calculations, gold would have to be $175,000 dollars an ounce. Wow, I wish. But it brings up some history, many don't know of.
Did you know that in the past, the Federal Reserve had to "cover" a percentage of their fiat dollars, with US Treasury gold certificates? Yep, indeed. Back in the 50's and early 60's, the Federal Reserve and it's member banks, had to hold gold certificates equaling over 40% of their Federal Reserve note "liability." Yeah, really.
Well then in 1965 they dropped the requirements for the member banks to cover, and thus the "collective Fed" only had to hold gold notes to cover 25%.
Now, we all know that Nixon closed the so called "gold window" in August of 71, concerning international transactions, what almost no one knows is that LBJ, REMOVED the cover requirement for the Fed to hold gold notes, in March of 68. The stage was being set for a "different way" to run the country.
The post-1965 increase in Federal Reserve Note liability (i.e., dollars because they weren't covered by gold) paralleled the rapid increases in both the U.S. federal budget and the U.S. Federal budget deficit associated with President Johnson's "guns and butter" policies, otherwise known as the "Great Society" and the Vietnam War. LBJ's focus on "guns and butter", and his removal of the gold cover, ushered in a new paradigm in how the U.S. economy would be run. Free market capitalism was "out"; government controlled debt system was in... and has ruled us, and the rest of the world, ever since.
The old form of money, i.e., backed by gold reserves, had to be earned. The gold had to be mined and refined, which required labor and capital. To get the gold to back the currency, governments had to tax, which meant seeking permission from the taxpayers (voters) to levy the necessary taxes. And the taxpayers (voters) had to earn dollars by working and investing. At the same time, banks had to maintain substantial deposits with the Federal Reserve against their loan portfolios.
The system was real, with real restraints and real interest rates that allocated capital rationally. Bubbles were squashed expeditiously by the free market, and business cycle down turns were relatively short-lived, with successive recoveries quickly exceeding their previous cycle peaks
But after LBJ's changes, politicians quickly realized that they no longer had to increase taxes (unpopular among the voters) in order to increase spending, especially vote-buying spending on their favorite special interest groups. The government could borrow to fund ever increasing deficits, secure in the knowledge that their servants at the Federal Reserve, freed by LBJ from the weight of any necessary gold reserve to back their Federal Reserve notes, would simply create the money out of thin air and buy the debt obligations not absorbed by the credit market (the definition of quantitative easing).
Moreover, banks, as a result of substantially reduced reserve requirements, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, could easily create even more money simply by making new loans. For the first time in human history, it appeared that there actually was a "free lunch" (as well as free dinners, free healthcare, free education, free ...). Just borrow and roll the debts forward, at successively lower Fed-engineered interest rates, forever (or until some distant generation had to pay the price for "free").
With money no longer having to be earned, it simply appeared as blips on the computer screens of the Federal Reserve, and lending to governments, to businesses, to consumers, exploded and has never stopped to this day.
So, while Nixon stopped the world from taking every ounce of gold we "might" have had at the time, it was Johnson that actually created this debt based fiat society we have. And look what it's done to us. Our dollar is crap, worth 4 cents. Our debts are in the tens of trillions, And there's 1) no way to pay it back and 2) no intention of paying it back.
Which leaves just a couple choices. 1) we continue the kick the can down the road game we've been playing since the late 60's and run the debt up to infinity, or 2) destroy this system and replace it with something else.
Is it possible we return to some form of gold backed currency, but with gold revalued incredibly higher? I guess it's possible, remember the "trillion dollar coin" idea from back 2011? The trillion-dollar coin was a concept that emerged during the United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011 as a proposed way to bypass any necessity for the United States Congress to raise the country's borrowing limit, through the minting of very high-value platinum coins. The concept gained more mainstream attention by late 2012 during the debates over the United States fiscal cliff negotiations and renewed debt-ceiling discussions. Obviously, it was shot down.
But that fact that it was brought up again in 2020 in Congress, shows that crazy ideas don't die easy.
In any event, for the here and now, demand for gold is still growing, and yes I totally believe the BRICS want their own trading currency and that it is tied to some percentage of gold backing. Isn't that quaint? A system we had here in the US for years, but was discarded for pure Fiat, is being talked about in the BRICS. You can't make it up.
The world knows we're broke. They don't want our Treasuries any more. Frankly they don't want much of anything from the US any more. So it's my guess that to continue global trade, at some point the present system will be pulled down and replaced with something more fiscally sound. What that looks like is a mystery for now. But it's coming. Oh and if we just went back to forcing the fed to cover their Fiat with 40% gold certificates, Gold would have to be 27,000 an ounce. I wish!
Stay tuned.
Bigworld, The stock market seems to be ignoring the election angst / uncertainty for now, and is focused on the economy and inflation. Recent data suggested a slowing economy, but corporate earnings have remained pretty strong, so next up will be the CPI number on Wed. Here are the Timiraos headlines (WSJ) from the last several weeks. He is the Fed's 'designated leaker' to Wall Street, and provides the Fed's guidance / vibe at any given time -
>>> Stubbornly High Rents Prevent Fed From Finishing Inflation Fight
For more than a year, the central bank has expected slowing rent increases to show up in official housing measures. It’s still waiting.<<<
>>> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat
Some analysts warn of limits as to how long the central bank can keep interest rate increases off the table.<<<
>>> Fed Says Inflation Progress Has Stalled, Extends Wait-and-See Rate Stance <<<
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos
In spite of all the unknowns, it seems possible the stock market might remain fairly buoyant through the summer. Just a guess, but it seems logical that Powell & Co will want to keep things on the rosy side to help Biden's re-election. On the other hand, the neocon faction should be wanting a Rep administration, and may work behind the scenes to sabotage the Dems. One potential scenario would be to replace Biden with Hillary, since she's essentially a neocon. But lots of countervailing scenarios, so we'll see what happens.
Looking at the metals, the silver chart is about where the gold chart was just prior to its recent break out. The silver chart pattern is less 'classic', but shows a quasi cup + handle over the last 12 years, combined with more recent inverted head + shoulders since 2020. The resistance level has been around 29 - 29.50, so we'll see if it can get back there for another test. I figure 30 will be the real psychological 'breakthrough' though, so we'll see what happens over the rest of the year. Gold has already made it's key breakthrough, so I figure it might consolidate for a while before the assault on 2500.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theres-lag-real-economy-and-its-hitting-now-ed-dowd-warns-huge-credit-crisis-coming
Ed Dowd is one of the more brilliant number crunchers on earth.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/monster-mash-up/
Kunstler isn't the only one back to postulating that the Dems will have no choice but to send Dribbling Joe to a memory care facility in Delaware before the election. The polls are that bad. And when Trump can get 80,000 to 100,000 people to show up at a rally in NEW JERSEY....the DNC must be panicked by now. Maybe I am underestimating the Vote Steal crooks of the DNC, but overcoming a 5-10% lead might be too much for even them to overcome. Dan Bongino is saying the same thing. And I've read a couple of other likewise opinions. Obama wants his 4th term so he can complete the destruction of the country and western civilization with it. He may need his wife to overcome her reluctance to running. I see no other viable contenders.
gfp: We know how Washington DC works. When the politicians in DC figure out a way to get rich off fortifying the electric grid they would vote in in. What us meaningless peasants want never enters into the equation. For things to get done in Washington either the politicians themselves need to be enriched or at the very least the donor class needs to be rewarded., who in turn fund the campaigns of their puppets.
Bigworld, Looks like the CPI data will be on Wed, so that could determine the near term direction for stocks, metals, the dollar, etc. Fwiw, after lowering the stock allocation so much, it's great to not have to worry about every new economic data point. I figure there's nothing wrong with collecting the safe 5% on the sidelines.
Since the Fedsters can massage / tweak the economic data to fit their current stance, it will be interesting to see what the CPI number turns out to be. The last time the Fed went dovish was last Oct, and it appeared they were trying to prevent the Middle East war from tanking the global financial markets. With the Gaza operation (slaughter) about to resume, it seems possible that the Fed might go quasi dovish again (?)
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Bigworld, Here's an update on the ongoing solar activity (below). Looks like the 'Geomagnetic Storm Warning' period was extended to tomorrow afternoon, but so far so good. The boneheads running the US govt need to divert some of the $ gazillions wasted on these pointless wars and use it to start hardening the US power grid against EMP. In addition to solar EMP. a single orbital nuclear device detonated over Kansas could knock out the majority of the US power grid for many months / a year or more. The US power grid is extremely vulnerable, and combined with our total dependence upon microelectronics, is the Achille's heel of modern civilization -
>>> Update: New solar flare, secondary peak today in this "Extreme" solar storm
By Eric Ralls
Earth.com
May 12, 2024
https://www.earth.com/news/secondary-peak-extreme-geomagnetic-solar-storm-expected-today/
The Sun released another powerful burst of energy today, known as a solar flare, reaching its peak intensity at 12:26 p.m. Eastern Time. The flare originated from a region on the Sun’s surface called sunspot Region 3664, which has been quite active lately.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, a spacecraft that keeps a constant eye on our nearest star, was able to capture a striking image of this latest solar outburst.
Solar flares are immense explosions on the Sun that send energy, light and high speed particles into space. They occur when the magnetic fields in and around the Sun reconnect, releasing huge amounts of stored magnetic energy. Flares are our solar system’s most powerful explosive events.
The NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has extended the Geomagnetic Storm Warning until the afternoon of May 13, 2024.
Understanding different classes of solar flares
Today’s flare was classified as an X1.0 flare. Solar flares are categorized into classes based on their strength, with X-class flares being the most intense. The number provides additional information about the flare’s strength within that class. An X1 flare is ten times more powerful than an M1 flare.
These energetic solar eruptions can significantly impact Earth’s upper atmosphere and near-Earth space environment. Strong flares can disrupt high-frequency radio communications and GPS navigation signals. The particle radiation and X-rays from flares can also pose potential risks to astronauts in space.
Additionally, the magnetic disturbances from flares, if particularly strong, have the ability to affect electric power grids on Earth, sometimes causing long-lasting blackouts.
However, power grid problems are more commonly caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), another type of powerful solar eruption often associated with strong flares.
Scientists are always on alert, monitoring the Sun for these explosive events so that any potential impacts can be anticipated and prepared for. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, along with several other spacecraft, help provide this early warning system.
Stay tuned to Earth.com and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for updates.
—–
Update — May 12, 2024 at 9:41 AM EDT
The ongoing geomagnetic storm is expected to intensify later today, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Several intense Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), traveling from the Sun at speeds up to 1,200 miles per second, are anticipated to reach the Earth’s outer atmosphere by late afternoon.
Over the past two days, preliminary reports have surfaced regarding power grid irregularities, degradation of high-frequency communications, GPS outages, and satellite navigation issues. These disruptions are likely to persist as the geomagnetic storm strengthens.
Auroras visible across the continental United States
Weather permitting, auroras will be visible again tonight over most of the continental United States. This spectacular display of lights is a direct result of the ongoing geomagnetic storm.
The threat of additional strong solar flares and CMEs, which ultimately result in spectacular aurora displays, will persist until the large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster, NOAA Region 3664, rotates out of view of the Earth. This is expected to occur by Tuesday, May 14, 2024.
Solar activity remains at moderate to high levels
Solar activity has been at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. Region 3664 produced an M8.8/2b flare, the strongest of the period, on May 11 at 15:25 UTC. A CME signature was observed, but an Earth-directed component is not suspected.
Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels from May 12-14, with M-class and X-class flares anticipated, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3664.
Energetic particle flux and solar wind enhancements
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached minor to moderate storm levels on May 10. Additional proton enhancements are likely on May 13-14 due to the flare potential and location of Region 3664.
The solar wind environment has been strongly enhanced due to continued CME activity. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of around 620 miles/second on May 12 at 00:55 UTC.
A strongly enhanced solar wind environment and continued CME influences are expected to persist on May 12-13, and begin to wane by May 14.
Geomagnetic field reaches G4 “Severe” storm levels
The geomagnetic field reached G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels in the past 24 hours due to continued CME activity.
Periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely, with isolated G4 levels possible, on May 12. Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storming are likely on May 13, and periods of G1 (Minor) storms are likely on May 14.
Stay informed and enjoy the light show
As the geomagnetic storm rages on, we must remain vigilant and prepared for the potential consequences. Monitor official sources for updates on the storm’s progress and any further disruptions to our technological infrastructure.
Take a moment to step outside tonight and marvel at the incredible auroras painting the night sky — a stunning reminder of the raw power and beauty of our Sun.
While these solar storms can cause temporary inconveniences, they also provide us with an opportunity to reflect on our place in the universe and the awe-inspiring forces that shape our world.
Stay tuned to Earth.com and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for updates.
Understanding geomagnetic solar storms
Geomagnetic storms are disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by the interaction between the solar wind and the planet’s magnetosphere. These storms can have significant impacts on technology, infrastructure, and even human health.
Causes of geomagnetic storms
Geomagnetic storms typically originate from the Sun. They are caused by two main phenomena:
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): Massive bursts of plasma and magnetic fields ejected from the Sun’s surface.
Solar Flares: Intense eruptions of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun’s surface.
When these events occur, they send charged particles streaming towards Earth at high speeds, which can take anywhere from one to five days to reach our planet.
Effects on Earth’s magnetic field
As the charged particles from CMEs and solar flares reach Earth, they interact with the planet’s magnetic field. This interaction causes the magnetic field lines to become distorted and compressed, leading to fluctuations in the strength and direction of the magnetic field.
Impacts on technology and infrastructure
Geomagnetic storms can have significant impacts on various aspects of modern technology and infrastructure:
Power Grids: Strong geomagnetic storms can induce currents in power lines, causing transformers to overheat and potentially leading to widespread power outages.
Satellite Communications: Charged particles can damage satellite electronics and disrupt communication signals.
GPS and Navigation Systems: Geomagnetic disturbances can interfere with the accuracy of GPS and other navigation systems.
Radio Communications: Storms can disrupt radio signals, affecting communication systems that rely on HF, VHF, and UHF bands.
Aurora formation
One of the most visually striking effects of geomagnetic storms is the formation of auroras, also known as the Northern and Southern Lights.
As charged particles collide with Earth’s upper atmosphere, they excite oxygen and nitrogen atoms, causing them to emit light in various colors.
Monitoring and forecasting
Scientists continuously monitor the Sun’s activity and use various instruments to detect and measure CMEs and solar flares.
This data helps them forecast the timing and intensity of geomagnetic storms, allowing for better preparedness and mitigation of potential impacts.
Historical geomagnetic storms
Some of the most notable geomagnetic storms in history include:
The Carrington Event (1859): The most powerful geomagnetic storm on record, which caused widespread telegraph system failures and auroras visible as far south as the Caribbean.
The Halloween Storms (2003): A series of powerful geomagnetic storms that caused power outages in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.
The Quebec Blackout (1989): A geomagnetic storm that caused a massive power outage affecting millions of people in Quebec, Canada.
Understanding geomagnetic storms is crucial for protecting our technology-dependent world and mitigating the potential risks associated with these powerful space weather events.
<<<
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gfp : I guess we dodged a bullet on this one. I had to work this weekend. Which is too bad because the weather here was so perfect. Sunny, mid to high 70s, cooler at night. I hope this next week shows me some more upward traction in the metals. If I have time I'll post Rinear's Newsletter. I can't do it from my work computer.
Solar EMP - >>> Why tonight’s massive solar storm could disrupt communications and GPS systems
by Brian Fung
CNN
5-10-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/why-tonight-s-massive-solar-storm-could-disrupt-communications-and-gps-systems/ar-BB1maBtN?cvid=3b22908a542549dfb346a5f254cdf8e3&ei=15
Buckle up: An unusual amount of solar activity this week could disrupt some of the most important technologies society relies on.
On Thursday, the US government issued its first severe geomagnetic storm watch in nearly 20 years, advising the public of “at least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections” as well as sunspots covering an area 16 times wider than the earth itself. A severe geomagnetic storm, or G4, is the second-highest grade in the US government’s classification system.
Radiation from this activity began to hit the earth’s magnetic field on Friday and will last through the weekend, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). On Friday evening, NOAA upgraded the storm to G5 or “extreme,” marking the first such event since October 2003.
NOAA’s warning of extreme space weather suggests the storm could trigger numerous effects for life on earth, possibly affecting the power grid as well as satellite and high frequency radio communications. Here’s what that means for technology users.
Communications impacts
The solar activity NOAA’s talking about involves the release of energy from the sun that travels through space and eventually reaches Earth.
When that radiation hits the magnetic sphere surrounding the planet, it causes fluctuations in the ionosphere, a layer of the upper atmosphere.
Those changes can directly affect satellites and other spacecraft in orbit, altering their orientation or potentially knocking out their electronics.
Moreover, the changes to the ionosphere can block or degrade radio transmissions trying to pass through the atmosphere to reach satellites. And they can also prevent radio transmissions from successfully bouncing off the ionosphere — which some radio operators normally do to increase the range of their signals.
Since GPS satellites depend on signals penetrating the ionosphere, the geomagnetic disturbance scientists are expecting could affect that critical technology used by planes, ocean-going vessels, and in the agriculture and oil and gas industries. And it could affect shortwave radio transmissions used by ships and aircraft, emergency management agencies, the military and even ham radio operators, all of whom rely on the high frequency radio airwaves that NOAA says could be scattered by the storm.
“Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations,” NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said in a release. “SWPC has notified the operators of these systems so they can take protective action.”
What about your cellphone?
Consumer wireless networks rely on different radio frequencies than the high frequency band, so it appears unlikely that the storm will directly affect cellular service. The GPS features on your phone also typically use a mix of pure GPS and cellular tower-based location tracking, so even if GPS signals are disrupted, phone users may still be able to maintain a rough location fix.
So long as the underlying electrical infrastructure that supports wireless networks remains unaffected, even an extreme space weather event should result in “minimal direct impact to public safety line of-sight radio and commercial cellular services … and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices,” according to researchers summarizing the findings of a 2010 study of extreme space weather conducted by NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency outlined a similar report in a 2021 presentation on space weather, finding that line-of-sight radio transmissions are generally not affected by space weather except in specific situations. The presentation did note some risks for copper cables and telephone lines based on land.
In a slightly different scenario in February, NOAA noted two major solar flares. But despite “widely reported cellular network outages” around the same time, the agency said, it was “highly unlikely” that the flares played a role in those blackouts.
On Friday, NOAA officials reiterated that the impact to cell phones this weekend should be slim to none, unless there are broad disruptions to the power grid.
“We’ve not seen any evidence in the past that a space weather storm could impact that now,” Brent Gordon, chief of the Space Weather Services branch for SWPC, told reporters on a conference call. “If power is not available for those, then yes, certainly, the secondary impacts from that would be great.”
The power grid is potentially at risk
Severe space weather can jeopardize power grids, according to NOAA, whose alert this week said to expect “possible widespread voltage control problems” and that “some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid.”
In 1989, a space weather event led to a massive blackout in Quebec, Canada for more than nine hours after geomagnetic fluctuations damaged transformers and other important equipment.
In October, an extreme geomagnetic storm stronger than the one predicted for this weekend led to power outages in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa, the SWPC said.
The largest known geomagnetic storm in history, known as the Carrington Event of 1859, caused telegraph stations to spark and catch fire.
A blackout of the electrical grid could have cascading effects for communications and other technologies, including cellphones. Cellular towers might lose power, as could the data centers that host websites and their information.
Still, many wireless carriers providers already maintain backup power generators and mobile cellular towers that they can deploy in the event of a natural disaster or other major incident. Redundancy and resiliency are watchwords of all critical infrastructure providers, so even if the power grid did fail, consumers might have to worry more about how to keep their phones charged rather than whether they could stay online.
As if to underscore that point, the US government’s advice to the public on how to prepare for a space weather event largely resembles the same steps you’d take in response to an extended power outage.
For example, the government recommends keeping extra batteries or a hand-powered charger available for small electronic devices. Officials say you may want to disconnect electric appliances to protect them from power surges and limit your electricity usage during a solar weather event. You may also want to keep your car’s gas tank at least half-full so that you do not need to visit a gas station (which needs electricity to operate the pumps).
<<<
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gfp: It's a response to the statements that Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. Putin just has to outlast Biden. If Trump is elected there will be no more money and weapons for Ukraine. Zelensky will have to cut a deal and retire to one of his mansions, probably in Florida. It's why the Uniparty wants to crush Trump. The Republicans are going to be much more vigilant with regard to election integrity this time around. The election of 2020 was so clearly stolen. Fulton County Georgia alone double scanned over 300,000 ballots to steal Georgia. So the Democrat/Deep State will use illegal aliens to vote. They didn't open the border so we could all have cheaper gardeners and hotel maids. They have been encouraged and aided to invade for a reason. To destroy the country Cloward-Piven style.
Russian tactical nuke drills -
>>> What are tactical nuclear weapons and why did Russia order drills?
Associated Press
5-6-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-are-tactical-nuclear-weapons-and-why-did-russia-order-drills/ar-BB1lU2OT?cvid=7d4b14a0ae8044caa8f8cfbd5853a749&ei=65
Russia's Defense Ministry said Monday that the military would hold drills involving tactical nuclear weapons — the first time such an exercise has been publicly announced by Moscow.
A look at tactical nuclear weapons and the part they play in the Kremlin's political messaging.
WHAT ARE TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
Unlike nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful and can have a yield as small as about 1 kiloton. The U.S. bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II was 15 kilotons.
Such battlefield nuclear weapons — aerial bombs, warheads for short-range missiles or artillery munitions — can be very compact. Their small size allows them to be discreetly carried on a truck or plane.
Unlike strategic weapons, which have been subject to arms control agreements between Moscow and Washington, tactical weapons never have been limited by any such pacts, and Russia hasn’t released their numbers or any other specifics related to them.
WHAT HAS PUTIN SAID ABOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reminded Western nations about Moscow’s nuclear might in a bid to discourage them from increasing military support to Kyiv.
Early on in the war, Putin frequently referenced Moscow’s nuclear arsenal by vowing repeatedly to use “all means” necessary to protect Russia. But he later toned down his statements as Ukraine's offensive last summer failed to reach its goals and Russia scored more gains on the battlefield.
Moscow's defense doctrine envisages a nuclear response to an atomic strike or even an attack with conventional weapons that “threaten the very existence of the Russian state.” That vague wording has led some pro-Kremlin Russian experts to urge Putin to sharpen it to force the West to take the warnings more seriously.
Putin said last fall that he sees no reason for such a change.
“There is no situation in which anything would threaten Russian statehood and the existence of the Russian state,” he said. “I think that no person of sober mind and clear memory could have an idea to use nuclear weapons against Russia.”
WHY DID RUSSIA SEND NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO BELARUS?
Last year, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons into the territory of Belarus, an ally that neighbors Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.
Belarus' authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, had long urged Moscow to station nuclear weapons in his country, which has close military ties with Russia and served as a staging ground for the war in Ukraine.
Both Putin and Lukashenko said that nuclear weapons deployment to Belarus was intended to counter perceived Western threats. Last year, Putin specifically linked the move to the U.K. government’s decision to provide Ukraine with armor-piercing shells containing depleted uranium.
Neither leader said how many were moved — only that Soviet-era facilities in the country were readied to accommodate them, and that Belarusian pilots and missile crews were trained to use them. The weapons have remained under Russian military control.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, which has a 1,084-kilometer (673-mile) border with Ukraine, would allow Russian aircraft and missiles to reach potential targets there more easily and quickly, if Moscow decides to use them. It has also extended Russia’s capability to target several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.
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gfp: Another WEF graduate who ruined the country she was elected to lead. Just Like Justin (Castro) Trudeau
Bigworld, Thanks for the Rinear update. The bottom line with the made-up economic data is that it still moves the financial markets as if it was legit data, at least in the near / mid term. Longer term, the actual economic situation (debt bomb, etc) will win out, but that might take years. So for us investors to make money in the market in the near / mid term, we need to act on the bogus data as if it was real. So we basically live in a financial 'twilight zone', lol.
Since the Fedsters routinely cook the data to fit their desired goals, the main question for us investors is to determine what the Fedsters want at any given time. If we assume they want the incumbent to win the upcoming election, then the Fed should logically want the financial markets fairly buoyant over the next 6 months, or at least stable. The Fed has to balance their main job of getting lower inflation, with the added goal of helping Biden. Juicing the stock market will help Biden, but hurt the inflation battle, so I figure we're likely in for a sideways market with a modest upside bias.
That may be the Fed's goal, but they can't control everything, and numerous landmines are lurking out there beyond their control. But assuming nothing blows up, the next question for investors is whether the modest potential upside over the next 6 months is worth the risk? 6 months in the money market will produce a profit of 2.5%, so the stock market return will have to beat that enough to make it worth enduring the risk and volatility.
Fwiw, I may decide to stay in stocks with 5%, but probably no more than 10%. Once the election is over, assuming Biden wins, then the stock allocation can return to 15-20%. The election angst and uncertainty will be over, and the Fed will be free to start lowering % rates. If Trump somehow wins, then the drama is just beginning, and all bets are off. Very unlikely though imo, since they clearly don't want Trump, and can presumably just tweak the vote count (again).
The wild card that worries me is that a neocon wingnut will want Biden removed to ensure a Rep administration, since that's they only way to get the 'US bombs Iran' scenario. Iran is reportedly very close to getting a nuclear weapon, and Biden & Co appear adamantly opposed to 'US bombs Iran'. So from the perspective of the extreme neocon wing, something has to give. But it's possible that Biden has already secretly agreed to 'US bombs Iran' for sometime after the election, in which case all sides will be satisfied. The Trilateral and Bilderberg crowd keep Trump out of office, and the neocon side gets the US to destroy Iran's nuclear program. So that might ultimately be what happens, and the election is a sleeper, with Biden either winning outright with a slight margin, or via a certain amount of vote tweaking if necessary. But just a guess, and we'll see what happens.
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More on New Zealand. Looks like Jacinda Ardern implemented some of the world's harshest Covid lockdowns and vaccine mandates (article below). So she is praised by the globalists, but was opposed by enough New Zealanders that she retired from politics -
>>> Ardern’s covid policy was her ‘greatest legacy’ — but also her undoing
New Zealand’s prime minister says she slept well 'for the first time in a long time’ after announcing resignation
The Washington Post
By Michael E. Miller
January 20, 2023
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/20/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-covid-resignation/
SYDNEY — Jacinda Ardern was on a work trip to a beach town in northern New Zealand almost exactly a year ago when her van was suddenly surrounded by anti-vaccine protesters. They called the prime minister a “Nazi” for requiring some workers get a coronavirus vaccine, and chanted “shame on you.” Some screamed obscenities. When a car tried to block Ardern’s exit, her van was forced to drive onto the curb to escape.
When asked about the incident a few days later, Ardern chuckled and shrugged it off.
“Every day is faced with new and different experiences in this job,” she said. “We are in an environment at the moment that does have an intensity to it that is unusual for New Zealand. I do also believe that with time it will pass.”
A little more than a month later, however, protests outside Parliament against vaccine mandates literally exploded into flames. Demonstrators set their own tents and gas canisters ablaze. Protesters pelted police with the same paving stones on which they’d written warnings to Ardern and other politicians that they’d “hang them high.” More than 120 people were arrested.
This time, Ardern didn’t shrug. Instead, she seemed angry and baffled.
“One day, it will be our job to try to understand how a group of people could succumb to such wild and dangerous mis- and disinformation,” she said.
In the end, New Zealand’s new era of intense rhetoric and dangerous disinformation will outlast Ardern, who announced Thursday that she was stepping down after more than five years in office.
“I know what this job takes,” the 42-year-old said in an emotional resignation speech. “And I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice.”
On Saturday, the ruling Labour Party announced that it had nominated cabinet minister Chris Hipkins to replace Ardern, after he was the only lawmaker to enter the contest. Hipkins will still need an endorsement from his Labour Party colleagues in parliament — a vote that will take place Sunday.
In her speech, Ardern didn’t mention the protests or the extreme rhetoric or the threats she faced. But she did mention the coronavirus pandemic. And in many ways, her management of the health crisis was her greatest success, but it also made her a divisive figure in New Zealand.
“I think it will probably be her greatest legacy,” said Michael Baker, an epidemiologist who served as an outside adviser to Ardern’s government during the pandemic. He likened Ardern to Winston Churchill, who shepherded the United Kingdom through World War II only to lose the 1945 election.
“It’s very hard to even imagine navigating through such an extreme threat that has been so prolonged,” he said. “At the end of it there was a deep bitterness over the experience people had been through, and unfortunately to some extent it’s been directed at her even though she’s done an extraordinary job.”
Ardern acted quickly at the outset of the pandemic, closing her country’s borders to foreigners even though tourism is one of New Zealand’s biggest industries. That decision, coupled with stringent quarantine requirements for returning New Zealanders and snap lockdowns, kept her country largely covid-free until early last year.
By the time the virus did become widespread in New Zealand, the vast majority of adults had been immunized. As a result, the country of about 5 million people has recorded fewer than 2,500 covid-19 fatalities — the lowest covid-related death rate in the Western world, according to Johns Hopkins University.
New Zealand’s mortality rate is still so low that fewer people have died than in normal times, Baker noted.
For almost two years, the charismatic Ardern was the global face of “zero covid”: an approach that drew admiration from other countries and also seemed to dovetail with her personal style of consensus-based governance. In the fight against covid, she referred to New Zealanders as “our team of 5 million.”
But that sense of team unity began to fray in late 2021, when Ardern introduced requirements that some types of workers be vaccinated, and that proof of vaccination be shown to enter gyms, hairdressers, events, cafes and restaurants.
“From a public health view it saved many lives, but it had this political cost,” Baker admits. “It probably contributed to the intensity of the anti-vaccine movement in that it was seized on by some groups who called it the ‘overreach’ of the state.”
The same policies that made New Zealand and its prime minister a zero-covid success also made Ardern a lightning rod for anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine ardor.
“Because she was such a global and public symbol, she did become the focus of a lot of those attacks,” said Richard Jackson, professor of peace studies at the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand.
“Their opinion was that she was destroying New Zealand society and bringing in ‘communist rule,’ and yet the whole world seemed to be praising her and lauding her,” he added. “It irritated the hell out of them.”
Protesters began following her around the country, from the van incident in the northern seaside town of Paihia in January last year to a similar incident in the South Island a few weeks later, when Ardern visited an elementary school only to be called a “murderer” by protesters waiting outside.
Hundreds of anti-mandate and anti-vaccine protesters also gathered on the lawn of Parliament in Wellington. Some put up signs that mocked Ardern in misogynistic fashion or compared her to Hitler. Others hung nooses reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
The rise in extremist rhetoric and baseless theories in New Zealand has been partly fueled by far-right movements in the United States and Europe, Jackson said, including pundits such as Tucker Carlson, who often took aim at Ardern. The prime minister herself called it an “imported style of protest that we have not seen in New Zealand before.”
After increasingly aggressive behavior by the protesters, including some hurling feces at police, officers in riot gear began to clear Parliament grounds on the morning of March 2. Some protesters fought back, turning their camping equipment into incendiary weapons.
Ardern reminded people that “thousands more lives were saved over the past two years by your actions as New Zealanders than were on the front lawn of Parliament today.”
In the eyes of some, however, the moment marked a turning point for the country.
“The nooses, the misogyny, the hate, the level of people advocating violence, people threatening to hang politicians, that’s not part of the New Zealand tradition of politics,” said Alexander Gillespie, professor of law at the University of Waikato.
“It was a huge shock to the country,” said Jackson, who described the protests as the most violent since clashes during the 1981 visit of the apartheid-era South African rugby team. “The way it ended, I think, kind of brought home to everyone that what we thought of as quite moderate and peaceful and tolerant politics might have ended, and we now have a much more intense, polarized and extreme” atmosphere, he said.
The vitriol continued even after her announcement Thursday: The owner of a bar in Nelson posted a doctored photo of Ardern in a wood chipper being towed by a hearse, but took it down after receiving complaints.
In recent months, Ardern’s broader popularity had begun to slip. The Labour Party she led to a sweeping and historic victory little more than two years ago now trails its rival in the polls, and her party is widely expected to lose this year’s election.
Like Churchill, Ardern had led her country through a dark time, but eventually lost the support of a crisis-weary populace, Baker said.
But the decision appears to have removed a weight from the prime minister’s shoulders. She told reporters Friday morning that she’d “slept well for the first time in a long time.”
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Bigworld, >> New Zealand <<
Check out that Prime Minister's bio (Jacinda Ardern) -
>>> In 2008, Ardern was elected president of the International Union of Socialist Youth <<<
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinda_Ardern
Just great. And then she became the world's youngest head of government. What I remember about her was the ultra quick banning of semi-auto firearms after this convenient shooting event (below). The ban went into effect less than a week after the shooting event, so some fast moving. New Zealand doesn't have that pesky 2nd Amendment problem, so poof, the guns could be made illegal in record time -
>>> In March 2019, in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings, Ardern reacted by rapidly introducing strict gun laws, winning her wide recognition <<<
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christchurch_mosque_shootings
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Rinear. 5/5/24
Logo3.gif
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Financial Intelligence Report
The Newsletter for people willing to take control of their financial future
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Greetings Friends!
This is today's issue of the Financial Intelligence Report
Contributing Editors: Bob Rinear, Ted, Chuck and the Crew!
Wall Street Lunacy donated by Jerome Powell, and Central Bankers the world over! Who else can print money and buy stocks?!
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Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary
Are you ready for this?
If you ever wondered just how badly our nation has been handled, it is IMPERATIVE that you watch this 1.3 minute clip.
Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy. Listen to him reply to a very simple question...
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1786049431478939649/pu/vid/avc1/640x360/aeGhMl9mu7IYA4sr.mp4?tag=12
Are ya gettin this? Can you believe this guy? He can't explain it, because it would expose how fake everything is. Speaking of fake, did you see the jobs report and the Services PMI Friday morning? Better works of fiction are never to be found.
Let's start with the jobs. The big "bugaboo" for the fed, according to Powell is that the labor market is still really tight and that's adding inflation. So, the wink and the nod was given to the BLS, to produce numbers that are much more "fed friendly."
Boy, did they deliver.
So the headline jobs number was that we gained 175K jobs, Much lower than anticipated. Now, first off let me chat about that for a minute. The fed's job is to lie to us. It's all a show. On one hand they have to make you believe things are better than they are, but not make it look so good that you question them about it.
The BLS's "birth/death" model added 363K jobs in April. Whoa! So Bob, if the headline says we gained 175K jobs, but the fake, made up, phantom jobs from the B/D added 363,000 to that "official" number, didn't we really LOSE like 188,000 jobs? YES we did.
But, the BLS can't put out the real jobs number, because if the news stations started broadcasting that in April we LOST 188K jobs on top of the actual loses in Jan-March, it would look VERY bad for Biden and the Fed. Don't forget one of their so called "mandates" is Maximum sustainable employment. Well it wouldn't look too damn maximum sustainable if you're puking up 200K jobs in a month. So, they lie about it. All of it.
Look at the unemployment rate. The market got all warm and fuzzy because it "rose" to 3.9%, again very favorable for a fed rate cut. But the real number is over 16%. They can't broadcast that, everyone would know the economy is in trouble. So they toss out a number that satisfies the fed and the market, and make it look better for the fed and Biden.
It's all lies. All of it.
Which brings us to the services PM. First up, what is it? Well, it's The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and it is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts, and investors.
Well when that report hit, and it was weaker than expected, once again the market simply adored it. But should they have? In their view, it suggests slowing of the economy and thus again...rate cut friendly. But there's an issue.
ISM Services, like manufacturing, came in weaker than all the (57) forecasts that form the Bloomberg consensus forecast. The composite fell from 51.4 to 49.4, its lowest level since the end of 2022. Business activity witnessed the most significant drop -- to its lowest point since May 2020 -- while the employment component also exhibited weakness. So yeah, that sounds pretty ugly and gloomy, and would make for a good argument for a rate cut.
But wait a second... Isn't Powell's first agenda to stomp out inflation? Didn't he say we might have to have "higher for longer" to see if things are heading to his vaunted 2% target? Indeed he did, many times. Well there's a fly in that ointment, because while business activity slowed, Conversely, prices paid rebounded to their January levels, increasing from 53.4 to 59.2. Oh and that's just what they tell us. What's the real number? 65? More lies.
Whoa! Yeah Mr. Market, it would be best to just parade that slowing headline number around, because a jump that big in prices paid, is about as inflationary as it gets and is absolutely not Fed friendly.
We are definitely in the first stages of stagflation folks.
Now, people ask me all the time... doesn't the market know all the numbers are made up lies? If the jobs numbers are really that bad, and the inflation numbers are really that bad, why would the market ignore that, and run with the made up BS numbers?
They have no choice. Ever since the 80's they've had to come up with ways to hide the fact that our dollar was going to crap, inflation was eating our wages, and our manufacturing base was in the toilet. NO president wants to be the guy in charge of that, so the wink and nod was sent out to the bean counters, to come up with "new and improved ways" of measuring activity and inflation. Wall Street wasn't going to be the party pooper and expose the baloney, because 1) it would crater the market and 2) they'd have the intelligence agencies up their butt.
For instance, let's take inflation. In the early 80's if the prices in the CPI example list went higher, it was reported pretty honestly. But there were times when it was pretty ugly, and again, no administration wants ugly economic reports on their watch. So they dreamed up "hedonic"measurements. What's that? A way to hide inflation.
Let's say a gadget you want to buy is 1000 dollars. But by the time you actually buy it, the price has gone up to 1100. The reporting manager to the CPI might tell them that actually the price went down.
WHAT?? Yep, they'll say it's a newer, improved model, with more features and benefits. So while the price in dollars went up, the value to the user went up more, therefore the overall reported number would be....the price fell. I'm not making this up folks, I'll give you an example from their own website:
This is for men's shirts. Here all shirts are either short sleeve or long sleeve and either cotton/poly or 100% cotton. After doing the statistical processing BLS might estimate that v1 = 0.15 and v2 = 0.25. This indicates that a long sleeve shirt is 15 percent more valuable than a short sleeve one and that a 100% cotton shirt is 25 percent more valuable than a cotton/poly blend shirt.
If the BLS data collector is forced to replace a short-sleeve cotton/poly shirt in the CPI sample with a long sleeve 100% cotton shirt, the CPI would adjust the price of the old item by the features in the new item, leading to a price adjustment of about 49 percent (e0.15+0.25).
If the price of the original shirt had been $20 and that of the replacement shirt $30, rather than using a $10 increase in price for that sample observation, the CPI would adjust the original shirt for sleeves and cotton content resulting in a price estimate of $29.84 (20*e0.15+0.25). This adjustment attributes most of the price difference between the shirts to the change in characteristics and an increase of only $0.16 is shown.
Ya get that? Shirt went up 10 bucks, they report it up 16 cents. Anyone still think inflation is 3%???? Well they do it with everything, along with "substitution" equations. If steak for example gets too high, they'll simply remove steak and substitute ground beef for the equation. It's all a game, a big fat lie and yes, Wall Street is well aware of it and plays right along.
Just understand that our system is wrecked. The fraud has gone on so long, it's so broken, it cannot be fixed. They just have to keep pushing the lies and borrowing from the future to keep the wheels on. One day, the axle will snap. Oh and it won't be pretty.
gfp: Nothing would surprise me any more. The Deep State and the globalists are capable of anything. They would welcome in nuclear war if they were assured of surviving it.
gfp: The next Plandemic. It will probably strike in late September and worn in October thereby necessitating ONLY mail in ballots for the Nov Election. Another steal for the Deep State.
gfp: The western nations are finished. I have a friend in Germany with 2 kids. They homeschool. But she sent me an article that children from Christian families are so outnumbered by muslin kids that they are converting to Islam so as to better fit in with their classmates. In Europe all the countries that accepted mass migration will be caliphates in 2 more generations. Needless to say I'm glad my wife and I were able to travel extensively in Europe before the 3rd world hordes ruined it and back when the US dollar still held good value. We have been to Germany several times, Italy 3 times, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and the UK. We never made it to Scandinavia but I don't like heir weather or their cuisine.
New Zealand was my favorite country in the world. But they went totalitarian when Jacinta Adhern was PM. Australia is the same. Unlivable if you value personal liberty. So if we feel we absolutely must leave we would probably flee to the mountains of Panama around Boquette. Or a coastal community in Costa Rica. There are some gated ex-pat communities with a mix of Americans, Canadians, and a few Europeans and Australians. I don't see either place going 100% to digital currencies. Too many peasant level unsophisticated people. I really hope it doesn't come to that. I'm content here for now. But I won't live in a country that is as totalitarian as China or North Korea.
(cont) In the 'what can go wrong' category, some obvious possibilities include the economy, geopolitics / war, organized opposition to a Biden victory, and unexpected black swan events. The 'Rumsfeld categories' would include -- known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.
1) Economic / Financial - this seems to be under control, at least for the next 6 months leading up to the election. A few years after that could be a different story, but the next 6 months look OK. A return of regional bank failures is a possibility, but the Fed's lowering of QT reduces that risk.
2) Geopolitics / War - plenty of landmines here, but the US has made it clear that a US / Iran war is off the table. Ukraine looks like the bigger risk - they now have additional funding, longer range US missiles, and unstable leadership who actually bombed the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
3) Opposition to Biden - while the Rep side includes some avid Trump followers, I figure a lot of the casual Trump supporters from past elections have cooled on the Donald, and just want the country to return to some semblance of normalcy. These people don't like Biden, but may just stay home on election day. Imo, a significant risk to Biden comes from extreme factions within the broader 'neocon' camp, who see the Rep administration as the only hope of stopping Iran's nuclear program.
4) Black Swan Events - here's where things get complicated, and there are many scenarios. Since both candidates are elderly, a serious age related health problem could crop up out of the blue (real or induced), so this is a possibility. Rickards says that the Establishment / Deep State will stop at nothing to keep Trump out of office, they simply will not allow it. So there are many possible permutations, but I figure what they want to see happen is a close election that Biden wins, or can win via relatively minor 'tweaking' of the vote count.
Here's a potential plot for a novel or movie --> a neocon extremist takes out Biden, believing that only the Rep Party can stop Iran's nuclear program. Since this makes a 'fixed' US election impossible, the Deep State is forced to also remove Trump. So both Biden and Trump are out of the picture, and the candidates end up being backups or the VP candidates. But this restores plausibility to the ability to fix the vote count, and the Dem replacement wins.
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Looking at things from the Fed's perspective, I figure Powell would ideally like to take some of the buoyancy out of the stock market, as a 'brake' on the stubborn wage growth and consumer spending that are keeping inflation elevated. But on the other hand, he doesn't want to really tank the markets since that could take on a life of its own and create bigger problems, as well as hurt Biden's reelection.
So, I figure the Fed's goal will be a sleepy stock market, range bound, between now and the election. This keeps the 'wealth effect' in check, which otherwise drives too much spending and inflation, but also keeps things buoyant enough to help Biden get reelected.
As usual, they can use forward guidance, media spin, etc to set the desired tone and expectations, and even massage the actual economic and inflation data to fit the narrative. I wonder how much of that 'data fixing' already goes on? We know inflation data has been downplayed for decades in order to reduce the annual Social Security inflation increases. So the Fed already does this, so what's a little more? Same with election results in close elections, which is relatively easy to do with digital vote tallying.
Anyway, if the desired outcome for the 'Establishment' is a relatively sleepy runup to a relatively sleepy reelection of Sleepy Joe, what can go wrong? Next post..
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Bigworld, On the investing side, figuring out how much to have at risk in stocks over the next 6 months is a challenge. On the bullish side is the Fed's reduction in QT starting in June (from 60 bil to 25 bil / month). This not only helps the Fed avoid 'repo' liquidity problems within the banking system, but it's a lower visibility way to help Biden's reelection.
Trump's coming out vocally against the Fed doesn't seem like a smart move. Politically he already has the hard core 'anti-Fed' type vote anyway, and it probably won't resonate that much with the broader public. What it does do though, is to make the Establishment even more determined to keep him out of office. If there was any doubt in their minds, it was removed by Trump saying that he wants to fire Powell and rein in the Fed's independence. And the millions of voters with 401K and IRAs increasingly don't want to rock the boat too much, so it seems like a bad strategic move for Trump.
One would think that the 'Establishment' want the economy and stock market on an even keel leading up to the election, since that will help the incumbent. Towards that end, they would go into kumbaya mode, and sugar coat the financial and economic news, and even massage the inflation and economic data to fit the desired 'stable' narrative. On the non-financial / economic side, they could try to stir up the identity politics aspects, but this could backfire and result in a higher MAGA voter turnout too. So they might go with a low key approach, with the current college unrest being an aberration, with a separate motivation.
Anyway, assuming the geopolitical events don't blow up big, it may be wise to keep a modest allocation in stocks, despite the many landmines. But best to stay nimble since the above analysis could be way off. But logically, if pre-election turmoil (as in 2020) is bad for the incumbent Party. then they may strive for relative kumbaya. Then the election is close, and they just digitally massage the numbers if needed to get the desired result. So Trump is effectively out of the picture, things chill out, the CBDC rollout can proceed unimpeded, etc.
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Bigworld, Like clockwork, every four years during the lead up to a national election, highly organized protests and riots (of the Soros variety) suddenly break out in the US. And if that's not enough, a viral pandemic also breaks out (?). That remains to be seen this time, but the appearance of H5N1 looks suspicious.
Another similarity is the appearance of problems in the 'repo' market, leading to a surge of liquidity provided by the Fed. In 2019 this was happening in the months leading up to the appearance of Covid. Back then (Fall 2019), not only did the Fed re-start QE to ease the worsening 'repo crisis', but in the prior month (Aug 2019) the Blackrock 'Going Direct Reset' proposal was approved at the G-7 meeting in Jackson Hole. Under this Going Direct Reset, the idea was to get ahead of the next financial crisis by pre-approving how the country would respond to the next crisis. In 2008 it took way too long to get Congress to OK the bailout measures, so under the 2019 Going Direct Reset proposal, the Congress would basically be removed from the process, and the bailout funds could be approved directly by the central bank itself, thus saving months of political wrangling.
How convenient, because 3 months later Covid first appeared (Nov 2019), and by March the Fed was able to immediately jump into mega bailout mode (per the Going Direct Reset). So very convenient timing, to say the least.
There's more though, since within weeks of the G7 approval of the Going Direct Reset (Aug 2019) the Fed's response to the 'repo crisis' in Sept suddenly began injecting hundreds of billions to ostensibly re-liquify and unfreeze the repo market. Blackrock was likely a big recipient of this free 'Going Direct Reset' money, and shortly thereafter, with the help of the Covid crisis, Blackrock emerged as the biggest owner of residential real estate in the US.
So Covid turned into a bonanza for crooks like Blackrock. In retrospect, the chronology of events may seem a little too obvious, but once again --> nothing to see here folks..
>>> Blackrock Authored The Bailout Plan Before There Was A Crisis <<< -
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/06/blackrock-authored-the-bailout-plan-before-there-was-a-crisis-now-its-been-hired-by-three-central-banks-to-implement-the-plan/
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QT taper - >>> The Fed announced a big change today. And no, we’re not talking about interest rates
CNN
by Nicole Goodkind
May 1, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-could-big-change-today-113528226.html
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision was fairly boring for investors — officials kept interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023.
But some savvy traders are excited about another key decision. The Fed announced that it will significantly curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — beginning in June.
US Treasury yields fell on the news. Yields on the 10-year and 2-year both dropped by .05 percentage points.
What’s happening: The Fed bought a ton of government-backed bonds between 2020 and 2022 to help support economic recovery after the pandemic-induced recession. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales.
In mid-2022, as inflation soared higher, the Fed reversed that and began unloading those bonds.
The Fed currently lets up to $60 billion in Treasuries mature each month without replacing them, reducing the amount of money circulating in the economy. The idea is that QT can help exert some downward pressure on prices.
But there’s also some downside to the practice — changing the amount of liquidity in the economy and redirecting that money could have some major consequences.
As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out in his annual letter to shareholders last month, “we have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale.” The current pace of QT is draining more than $900 billion in liquidity from the system annually, he said, adding, “I am more worried [about it] than most.”
QT reduces the amount of money in the banking system, leading to higher interest rates and tighter monetary conditions, but last time the Fed implemented such a program in 2019, some banks fell very short of reserves.
That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. The Fed had to intervene and provide liquidity to bring down those repo rates.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t want a repeat of 2019 and said at his last press conference that QT would be scaled back soon.
On Wednesday, officials announced that they will lower the rate of QT to $25 billion, more than half of where it currently sits.
What it means: “May 1 is set to be a big day in the bond market,” Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi wrote in a recent note.
If the Fed does ease up its tightening policy, “financial markets will likely see the taper of the QT program as bullish for riskier investments like stocks and bonds at the margin,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, in a note on Tuesday.
That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
The risk, wrote Bank of America analysts on Tuesday, “is skewed to the upside for stocks, in our view, especially given a potential QT taper announcement".
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H5N1 - the next pandemic?
>>> What a US farmworker’s case of bird flu tells us about tracking the infection
CNN
by Brenda Goodman
5-3-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/what-a-us-farmworker-s-case-of-bird-flu-tells-us-about-tracking-the-infection/ar-AA1o5Z6a?OCID=BingNewsSerp
A US farmworker who caught bird flu after working with dairy cattle in Texas appears to be the first known case of mammal-to-human transmission of the virus, a new study shows.
The dairy worker sought care in late March after developing painful red, swollen, weeping eyes with burst blood vessels. He had no fever, however, and his lungs were clear, according to a letter about the case that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Friday.
He reported no contact with sick or dead birds or other animals, but he did have repeated direct close contact with dairy cows in the same part of the state with other infected herds.
Even though the man didn’t become seriously ill, his case is important because it confirms that humans can be infected with H5N1 after contact with cows. At the same time, it also leaves critical questions unanswered about a virus that the study authors said has “pandemic potential,” and it illustrates how hard it will be to track the infection in this vulnerable population of workers, where testing positive for an infectious disease might mean losing days of work and pay.
“For farmworkers specifically, certainly these are folks that are that are living in a state of economic desperation, and what they’re not going to do is, they’re not going to test for something if they don’t have paid sick leave, because they cannot afford to be sent home and told to stay home and not work,” said Elizabeth Strater, director of strategic campaigns for United Farm Workers.
Strater says UFW, like other groups, has heard rumors that there are dairy workers who are sick but don’t want to be tested, but she said it’s nothing that they’re able to confirm.
Health officials in Texas said they did test other sick dairy workers, including some with red eyes, but they turned out to have other illnesses, not bird flu.
“The people tested volunteered to be tested,” said Lara Anton, senior press officer with the Texas Department of State Health Services.
“It’s likely there were other people with symptoms who did not want to be tested so we cannot say with absolute certainty that no one else contracted H5N1. We can say for sure some of the people on dairy farms tested positive for other respiratory viruses that are commonly circulating in the human population,” Anton said.
In the case of the man who did test positive for bird flu, he took antiviral medications and recovered without any lasting problems, and his close family members received the drugs as a precaution, the letter says.
Swabs of the patient’s eyes and lungs revealed something interesting, too: His eyes were teeming with the H5N1 virus, but there was hardly any virus in his lungs. That could mean the worker was infected through his eyes – either by rubbing them with contaminated hands or through splashes of contaminated milk – rather than through his lungs, and the virus never migrated there, or that the virus couldn’t get a foothold in his lungs because it was adapted primarily to infect birds, not cells in the human airway.
The letter on the case was written by researchers at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention along with doctors at the Texas Department of State Health Services and researchers at the Texas Tech Bioterrorism Response Laboratory.
Health officials said they couldn’t do further investigation of how the man was infected because “epidemiological investigations were not able to be conducted at the farm” where he worked. They were also unable to test other workers at the same farm.
That kind of testing is critical to answer questions about how the worker became infected, whether others were being infected and if so, for how long they were infected and what kind of symptoms they had, if they had any at all.
The CDC is looking for farms that will allow it to conduct such a detailed study.
“Understanding the current avian flu outbreak among dairy cattle is a vital priority to help protect human health,” the agency said in a statement to CNN. “Discussions are under way with farms in multiple jurisdictions to participate in CDC-led epidemiological studies. In the meantime, states continue to test symptomatic farm workers and monitor those who have been exposed to infected animals. CDC also continues to closely monitor a robust, nationwide flu surveillance system. To date, it has not detected any unusual flu activity.”
At a news briefing Friday, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration was monitoring the situation “very closely and taking this very seriously.”
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Bigworld, >> reevaluate our strategy of remaining in the USA <<
Based on Rickards' info (below), the UK related countries seem to be going 'full Orwell' first -- Canada, Scotland, New Zealand, Ireland. I visited Scotland back ~ 2005, and even then it was one of the most surveilled places on Earth, with a zillion CCTV cameras at every intersection. In Edinburgh I walked across a quiet street and a local guy pointed up to the cameras and said to be careful since 'they' (Big Brother) will send you a penalty / fine for not crossing correctly at an intersection. The UK is just crawling with surveillance cameras everywhere.
The main reason 1984 hasn't happened already is that the technology to implement it didn't exist. But now it does, and the CBDC will be the ultimate enforcement tool ---> total behavioral control over the population since they can just switch off your use of money. Unfortunately it's just a matter of time.
>>> When we look around at places like New Zealand and Scotland, there seems to be a bizarre competition to see which country can pass the most fascist laws and imitate George Orwell’s dystopia in Nineteen Eighty-Four in the least amount of time.
Scotland has imposed so-called hate crime laws that subject you to imprisonment for exercising free speech if it happens to offend a long list of protected parties. No actual violence or physical act is needed. If you simply say the wrong thing, you can be arrested, fined and imprisoned for “inciting hate.”
A similar law has just passed in Ireland. The Polish government wants to pass a law that makes it a crime to “defame” members of the LBGT community. Of course, the term “defame” is ill-defined and is in the eye of the beholder. Any choice of words, even if derogatory or hurtful by some standard, should be protected by free speech provisions. But in Poland, it may soon land you in jail.
I’ve never understood hate crime laws anyway (and I’m a lawyer). If you murder someone, it’s murder. If you assault someone, it’s assault. Subject to due process of law, you should go to jail if convicted or perhaps face capital punishment.
Prosecutors have to show intent, but what does “hate” have to do with it? The perpetrator may, in fact, hate the victim but that’s not the crime. The crime is assault or murder. Those crimes have been considered crimes for millennia.
Nineteen Eighty-Four Was Supposed to Be Fiction
Adding hate to the definition just blurs the line between thought and action in ways that make it easier for fascist governments to target political enemies with flimsy allegations of “hate” when no actions were involved.
The most egregious example of this trend toward thought crimes is Canada. The chief neo-fascist there is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He has proposed a law called the Online Harms Act that expands the definition of “discrimination” to include online speech “likely to foment detestation or vilification of an individual or group.”
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gfp: All the Deep State tactics just put us incrementally closer to an all out civil war. We're heading that way. States are announcing that they will no longer follow certain Federal laws and Regulations on issues like Transexuals in women's sports, not allowing surgical gender procedures for minors, border issues, etc. The longer we allow a totalitarian minority to circumvent what's left of our Democracy the more entrenched it becomes. Trump, love him or hate him, is the last stand. If they take him out it might be time to reevaluate our strategy of remaining in the USA, despite our ages. I can't imaging living here under North Korean conditions.
gfp : Cash is not a bad route to take. A least you sleep better. I expect a lot of volatility this year and into next year. The markets could go higher if the Fed buys enough Treasuries to suppress interest rates. But job losses are mounting. The economy is weakening. Take away the contribution of all the deficit spending and GDP would be negative. We are entering an era of Stagflation. Hard assets have, in the past, done well in that macro scenario. Despite the sell off in Gold is does seem to be holding the $2300 level, at least so far. I like having some high dividend paying hard asset or pipeline plays like ENG and RIO. The yields are higher than you get in MM funds or Treasuries. And in the long run those types of stocks tend to do well in stagflationary times.
Bigworld, Rickards talks about the latest Orwellian assaults on the Constitution (see below), including 'de-banking' of political opponents, and also the expanding 'hate crime' laws. Once the CBDC is in place, the job will be complete --> Amerika.
>>> Will Trump Survive This?
BY JAMES RICKARDS
APRIL 30, 2024
https://dailyreckoning.com/will-trump-survive-this/
Will Trump Survive This?
This is a highly consequential election year, to say the least. The policy differences between Biden and Trump are enormous. Whether it’s taxes, regulation, borders, energy or foreign policy, the differences couldn’t be clearer.
And though I prefer to focus my analysis on markets alone, I can’t. These days especially, politics plays too great a role in how markets behave.
But this year’s election is about far more than policy.
In the past, the D.C. establishment could live with a typical Republican or Democrat. They knew neither candidate would rock the boat too much if he got elected. Both candidates were cut from the same basic cloth and played by the accepted rules.
But all that goes out the window with Trump.
He’s the most polarizing political figure we’ve seen in our lifetimes. You’d probably have to go back to Andrew Jackson to find a parallel.
And it’s clear that Trump’s political enemies will stop at nothing to keep him out of the White House this time.
Lawfare
“Lawfare” is their primary tactic. They just want to get Trump convicted of a felony before the election so they can brand him a criminal, believing that the American public won’t elect a convicted felon.
They don’t care if the conviction is subsequently overturned by a higher court. The damage will already be done. And if it trashes the Constitution, Trump’s political enemies are prepared to live with that.
They’re convinced that Trump is the equivalent of Hitler and that he’ll destroy democracy if he’s elected. So in their minds, the ends justify the means. They’ll justify any action, legal or illegal, to ensure his defeat.
They don’t seem to realize that the harder they go after Trump with bogus charges, the more popular he becomes.
Whether you like Trump or not, voters don’t expect a billionaire real estate magnate from New York City to be a saint. They vote for him because they think he can get things done.
And under honest democratic elections, the administrative state, or deep state, whatever you want to call it, stays out of it. But that’s not the system we have today.
And that should concern every American, regardless of his or her political affiliation.
Again, it doesn’t matter if you love Trump or hate him. But in a democracy, the people rule. Not the bureaucrats. And if the people elect Trump, then he should be allowed to enact the policies that got him elected. That didn’t happen when he won in 2016.
Stop Trump!
The first two years of his administration were hobbled by the fake Russian collusion hoax and the numerous investigations that resulted. Those investigations showed that there was no collusion between Trump and Russia, but Trump’s enemies didn’t care (and certainly did not apologize).
They just moved on to the next fake scandal, which was the first impeachment over a brief phone call to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy asking about Biden family corruption. It turns out that Biden family corruption was rampant in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop phony “whistleblowers” (actually lawbreakers) like Eric Ciaramella from leaking classified transcripts to Adam Schiff to get the impeachment process going.
Trump was acquitted by the Senate. Then came the second impeachment where Trump was also acquitted. Since leaving office, Trump has been hit with federal criminal charges relating to Jan. 6 and the Mar-a-Lago raid, as well as state criminal charges in New York and Georgia.
Trump’s enemies never quit. They’re also going after Trump’s advisers and confidants. It’s meant to isolate Trump because anyone who advises him will fear they’ll be hauled into court on some bogus charge and have to spend a fortune on lawyers, win or lose.
The latest lawfare tactic has been unveiled against Trump attorney John Eastman. It’s called “debanking.”
Good Luck Living Without a Bank
In Eastman’s case, it started with Bank of America closing his bank accounts for no good reason and with no recourse. Then he turned to his accounts at USAA, which specializes in accounts for military veterans and their families. Shortly thereafter, USAA also closed Eastman’s bank accounts.
We tend to take banking services for granted and don’t think much about what would happen if we were shut out of the banking system. No checks, no savings accounts, no wire transfers, no ATMs, no bank-issued credit cards, no lines of credit or mortgages, etc.
It’s like trying to survive without food or water. It’s impossible. And that’s the whole point. It’s designed to make the victim’s life miserable.
The same thing happened in the U.K. when NatWest and Coutts debanked Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit movement. Farage fought back and the CEO of NatWest was eventually fired over the incident. But it was a brutal fight and a tough transition for Farage when he suddenly found himself debanked.
Unfortunately, debanking is just an extension of the “woke” cancel culture that’s taken root in much of the West.
Shut up, Bigot!
When we look around at places like New Zealand and Scotland, there seems to be a bizarre competition to see which country can pass the most fascist laws and imitate George Orwell’s dystopia in Nineteen Eighty-Four in the least amount of time.
Scotland has imposed so-called hate crime laws that subject you to imprisonment for exercising free speech if it happens to offend a long list of protected parties. No actual violence or physical act is needed. If you simply say the wrong thing, you can be arrested, fined and imprisoned for “inciting hate.”
A similar law has just passed in Ireland. The Polish government wants to pass a law that makes it a crime to “defame” members of the LBGT community. Of course, the term “defame” is ill-defined and is in the eye of the beholder. Any choice of words, even if derogatory or hurtful by some standard, should be protected by free speech provisions. But in Poland, it may soon land you in jail.
I’ve never understood hate crime laws anyway (and I’m a lawyer). If you murder someone, it’s murder. If you assault someone, it’s assault. Subject to due process of law, you should go to jail if convicted or perhaps face capital punishment.
Prosecutors have to show intent, but what does “hate” have to do with it? The perpetrator may, in fact, hate the victim but that’s not the crime. The crime is assault or murder. Those crimes have been considered crimes for millennia.
Nineteen Eighty-Four Was Supposed to Be Fiction
Adding hate to the definition just blurs the line between thought and action in ways that make it easier for fascist governments to target political enemies with flimsy allegations of “hate” when no actions were involved.
The most egregious example of this trend toward thought crimes is Canada. The chief neo-fascist there is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He has proposed a law called the Online Harms Act that expands the definition of “discrimination” to include online speech “likely to foment detestation or vilification of an individual or group.”
What exactly does this law mean by “foment”? Who defines “vilification” or “detestation”? What’s the definition of “group”?
All of these questions will be answered by a new Digital Safety Commission, which will not be bound by “any technical or legal rules of evidence.” If accused, you can be ordered to pay $20,000 to any “victim” and $50,000 to the state with no limit on how many victims might crawl out of the woodwork.
This is practically an invitation for grifters and activists to attack political enemies with fake claims of having been subject to “detestation.” It gets worse. If a court believes you are likely to commit a “hate crime” under this law, you can be placed under house arrest and held in isolation.
In other words, just thinking the wrong thing as imagined by an unaccountable magistrate is enough to put you under house arrest. This is actually worse than what the Thought Police did in Orwell’s novel.
You can expect censorship in the U.S. to increase as we get closer to the November election. Get ready for it.
Nineteen Eighty-Four was supposed to be fiction. Unfortunately, it’s becoming reality.
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Bigworld, With the energy / mining type plays, they tend to get hit along with the broader markets when there is a big market selloff. And they can drop more than the S+P 500, since these sectors tend to be sensitive to the economy. I figure sitting in the money market makes the most sense, it's paying ~5%, and the funds will be available to take advantage of bargains later. Fwiw, I'm thinking of just sitting in cash until the election. While traditional buy / hold has been the best approach over time, it requires a 'faith in the system' that I just don't have anymore, sorry to say.
The irony to the ongoing unraveling of the US is that our would be overlords still need a strong US, since they are challenged like never before by such a potent rival --> China-Russia-BRICS. The US/West globalists can't weaken the US too much since that will mean defeat. They must know this, but they seem hell bent on bringing the US down, so go figure. There has always been a degree of deliberate destabilization of the US population (via stoking divisions, etc), but the current lunacy doesn't make sense. Weaken the fiber of the US too much, and you might as well just hand the 'keys to the kingdom' over to China-Russia-BRICS.
'Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad'
gfp; We crossed an important milestone this year. We now spend more on debt service than we do on our military. That's usually the beginning of the end for an empire. They now have to continue printing. They can't raise rates like Volker did. Nobody has the guts to do that anymore. The Government isn't going to cut spending. That never happens. They'll just inflate our deficits away. But our days are running short now. We're in a 4th Turning and look at what we have in Washington DC guiding our path. Idiots. Spineless jellyfish. And liberal activists. I'm once again casually looking at real estate alternatives overseas as a potential escape valve. We're probably too old to act on my impulse. But if we were younger we would be in the market for an overseas getaway and a possible 2nd passport. America is just about finished.
GFP: The McALvany Weekly Commentary talked about this in yesterday's episode. They think it's inevitable due to high number of people between 20 and 40 they need to keep employed. If they are not employed they might want to upset the apple cart. It will be good for gold. Shanghai is becoming the most important gold exchange in the world. The Chinese aren't stupid, unlike the asshats that inhabit Washington DC that are purposefully sending us down the drain.
gfp: There is the possibility of using your equity percentage on hard asset plays. Something like Enbridge (ENB) Pays > 7% dividend. RIO Tinto (RIO), another high dividend play with diversified mining. Newmont (NEM) 2.46% dividend yield while you wait for gold and silver to explode to the upside. The precious metal royalty companies are a good risk/reward play. I own Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton (WPM) and Sandstorm (SAND) and some funds i have own Royal Gold (RGLD) and Osinko (OR). You could make up your entire equity investments in hard asset plays, some with decent dividend yields. That's the way to play this marker at this time. We've entered an era of Stagflation for sure. Job opening are down. Layoff are up. Inflation is trending back up. The FED will resume buying Treasuries to keep interest rates low....which is monetizing the debt, which will add gasoline to the inflation fire. Look for guidance to the previous stagflation era. What worked then will probably work now.
gfp: It's all bought and paid for by Soros or other Deep State actors. And Speaker Jellyfish Johnson allowed over $3 Billion in this last Ukraine waste of money to fund NGOs that are going to speed up the importation of more Muslims from the Middle East, as if there aren't enough potential enemies pouring through our southern border, again facilitated by NGOs funded by us taxpayers. Never in the history of mankind has the world seen a country committing suicide in one lifetime like our's is in the process of doing. This is all by design.
Bigworld, Well, the Fed meeting came and went, so what next I wonder? All things considered, it's hard to not have a queasy feeling about the rest of the year. With the Fed now apparently on the sidelines, the uncertainty and angst over the election will grow in importance. Beyond that will be the ongoing economic and inflation data, and the geopolitical / war landmines and potential black swan events.
Fwiw, I used the brief afternoon Powell 'bump' to reduce the stock allocation even more, down to a measly 5%. So just a token exposure to stocks, but will hopefully get back up to a 15-20% allocation after the election. Of course if Trump is elected, all bets are off since the mega freak out by the media and Deep State will be just beginning. They'll likely have the impeachment process rolling even before the inauguration. If Biden wins there could be a sigh of relief on Wall St, until people remember that he'll be 83-87 years old during the 2nd term, yikes.
But after the election the Fed will be free to lower % rates as needed, so the bull market in stocks could resume. Trump is reportedly talking about reining in the Fed's independence, being able to fire Powell, etc. That gives the Establishment even more reason to see that Biden wins the election. Anyway, looks like no shortage of angst in the period ahead. Probably best to watch from the sidelines imo.
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WSJ - Timiraos - >>> Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer
The Wall Street Journal
by Nick Timiraos
4-30-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-to-signal-it-has-stomach-to-keep-rates-high-for-longer/ar-AA1nUQof?cvid=482d5eba932247e68c1fe028770906b5&ei=51
An ancient Chinese proverb that counsels “do nothing, and everything will be done” could sum up the Federal Reserve’s latest approach to interest-rate policy.
Fed officials will hold their benchmark federal-funds rate steady at its highest level in more than two decades, around 5.3%, at their two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday.
Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.
With no new economic projections at this meeting and minimal changes expected to the Fed’s policy statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be the main event on Wednesday. Here’s what to watch:
The inflation setback
Since officials’ meeting in March, the economy has continued to demonstrate strong momentum. But inflation has disappointed after a string of cool readings in the second half of 2023 stirred optimism the central bank might be able to lower rates.
In March, Powell held out the prospect that strong price pressures in January had been a bump on the road to lower inflation. Firm readings for February and March (even if not quite as hot as January) punctured that optimism. They raise the prospect that inflation might settle out closer to 3%. The Fed targets 2% inflation over time.
Powell is likely to repeat a message he delivered two weeks ago, when he said recent data had “clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation would continue declining to 2% “and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that.”
The focus at this meeting will be how Powell characterizes the interest-rate outlook. While most Wall Street strategists think one or two rate cuts are still possible later this year, the prospect of such a recalibration without clear evidence of economic weakness remains a bigger wild card than it did just a few weeks ago. Some think the Fed might not cut at all.
The Fed’s rate outlook hinges on its inflation forecast, and the most recent data raises two possibilities. One is that the Fed’s expectation that inflation continues to move lower but in an uneven and “bumpy” fashion is still intact—but with bigger bumps. In such a scenario, a delayed and slower pace of rate cuts is still possible this year.
A second possibility is that inflation, rather than on a “bumpy” path to 2%, is getting stuck at a level closer to 3%. Without evidence that the economy is slowing more notably, that could scrap the case for cuts altogether.
Rate policy remains “well-positioned”
Powell is likely to acknowledge that officials have less conviction about when and how much to reduce interest rates. In March, most officials projected two or more rate cuts would be appropriate this year, and a narrow majority penciled in at least three cuts.
Even though officials won’t submit new projections this week, at other meetings without them, Powell has taken the opportunity to reaffirm those one-meeting-old projections or, alternatively, declare them out of date. Wednesday’s meeting is more likely to yield the latter outcome.
At the same time, Fed officials have indicated that they are broadly comfortable with their current stance. This makes a hawkish pivot toward entertaining rate increases unlikely.
“Policy is well-positioned to handle the risks that we face,” Powell said on April 16. If inflation continues to run somewhat stronger, the Fed will simply keep rates at their current level for longer, he said.
As financial-market participants anticipate fewer cuts, longer-dated bond yields will rise. In effect, this achieves the same kind of tightening in financial conditions that Fed officials sought when they raised interest rates last year. Higher yields across the Treasury yield curve should ultimately hit asset values, including stocks, and slow the economy’s momentum.
If inflation stays firm “that is what they will want to see, ultimately,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale.
Low risks of a hawkish pivot
The difficulty for Fed officials in communicating their outlook right now boils down to the conditional nature of the “if/then” statements volunteered by Fed officials, which are premised on one set of outcomes. When the economy performs in ways that officials don’t anticipate, their past statements may no longer be valid.
To that end, Powell might be hard-pressed to rule out any additional increases, even though it is likely premature for officials to meaningfully move in that direction.
But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.
A key measure of wage growth released Tuesday showed that a sustained cooling in wage growth last year may have stalled in the first quarter. Compensation for private-sector workers rose 4.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, essentially unchanged from the fourth quarter, the Labor Department said.
Signs that wage pressures had been easing were an important factor allaying some Fed officials’ concerns about stickier service-sector inflation. Additional evidence in the coming months that wage growth is accelerating could trouble officials.
The balance sheet
Fed officials have said they could announce “fairly soon” their plan to slow the runoff of their $4.5 trillion in holdings of Treasury securities, which are part of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio. That has led analysts to expect a formal plan announcing the slowdown at their meeting this week, though some see a chance this happens at their subsequent meeting in June.
At issue is a program the central bank initiated two years ago to passively reduce those holdings by allowing bonds to “run off” its balance sheet without buying new ones. It acquired trillions in Treasurys and mortgage bonds to stabilize financial markets in 2020 and to provide additional stimulus in 2021.
Every month, officials have allowed as much as $60 billion in Treasury securities and as much as $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without being replaced. The process is designed to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, which topped out at nearly $9 trillion two years ago.
At the March meeting, officials appeared to coalesce around a plan to reduce the pace of runoff “by roughly half.” Because high interest rates have kept mortgage-bond runoff at a subdued level, officials wouldn’t change that part of their program and instead lower the cap on monthly Treasury redemptions.
The latest changes aren’t related to the setting of interest rates and are instead designed to avoid a messy upheaval in overnight lending markets that occurred five years ago.
The reduction in assets is also draining the financial system of bank deposits held at the Fed, which are called reserves. Officials don’t know at what point reserves will grow scarce enough to push up yields in interbank lending markets. Slowing the process now is seen as preferable by many officials because it could allow the portfolio runoff to continue for somewhat longer without risking the same kind of market ruckus that occurred in 2019.
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Bigworld, Looks like a devaluation of the Chinese yuan might be in the offing. Observers call this the 'nuclear option' for getting China's export oriented economy moving again, and could also explain their extremely aggressive purchases of gold and oil in recent months. In the past, Chinese devaluations of the yuan have caused turmoil in the US stock market (mid-late 2015) -
>>> Yuan Devaluation Debate Surfaces as Traders Weigh Next FX Shock
Bloomberg
4-28-24
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/yuan-devaluation-debate-surfaces-as-traders-mull-next-fx-shock
Supporters say sharp currency drop can help China’s economy
But such a move is controversial as it can trigger outflows..
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Bigworld, On the investing side, it's becoming harder to figure out a sensible strategy for the rest of the year. With so many landmines and uncertainties, I decided to lower the stock allocation to 10% for the time being, and also went with the S+P 500 exclusively instead of individual stocks. I figure this keeps things a lot more flexible and liquid, while still earning the ~ 5% in the money market.
Looking at the rest of 2024, it looks like the Fed % policy will no longer be much of a tailwind for the markets, at least until after the election. The ongoing geopolitical / war stuff will be lurking out there, but the election angst will start looming ever larger as the months go by. Regardless of who wins, it's tough to see a great outcome for the markets. If Trump wins then the media and Establishment will go nuts on steroids, so a Biden win might be the best for the financial markets, at least in the shorter term. Anyway, I figure no sense sticking your neck out very far in this environment.
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Bigworld, We know that a key objective is to keep the public perpetually divided and squabbling among ourselves (Red / Blue), and they've done a great job on that front. Another social control method is to maintain an ongoing atmosphere of fear and confusion. These protests and riots have been appearing like clockwork ~ 6 months before every Presidential election.
What needs to happen is for the public to come together and become united, with Red and Blue coming to realize that they are being played against each other. The public has a lot more in common with each other than we do with the would-be overlords (globalist schemers and finance ghouls).
>>> Divide and Rule policy (Latin: divide et impera), or divide and conquer, in politics and sociology is gaining and maintaining power divisively. This includes the exploitation of existing divisions within a political group by its political opponents, and also the deliberate creation or strengthening of such divisions.
- Creating or encouraging divisions among the subjects to prevent alliances that could challenge the sovereign and distributing forces so that they overpower each other.
- Fostering distrust and enmity
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule
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GOLD/Copper Developer Ready To Rally; https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ESM.TO/overview
trades on the OTC as well
https://crweworld.com/article/news-provided-by-globenewswire/3364861/romania-government-announces-strategy-to-align-mining-legislation-to-the-eu-s-critical-raw-materials-act
gfp: Everything about Uklraine is secretive. Biolabs, money laundering, grift.....it's a cesspool. And all the Congress critters that keep voting them more money while allowing open borders into our country should be rounded up and sent to the guillotine for public execution.
GFP: YOU KNOW THE OLD SAYING...THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH. I expect more failures to happen. Commercial Real Estate is not recovering. In some cities it's actually getting worse. And the FDIC is Trillions of Dollars underfunded.
gfp: I don't want riots in the streets either. But the Deep State and minions like George Soros are certainly funding that ultimate result. I think fostering upheaval is all they have left as their Presidential campaign. If T trump wins the left will unleash havoc with their Hamas groups, ANTIFA, BLM, etc. If the Deep State steals the election and Dementia Joe is reinstalled to allow Obama's 4th term then all bets are off. There will be calls for a Constitutional Convention to disband the country. And I would certainly support that outcome. I don't want to share governance of what remains of this country with the likes of liberal politicians from Commiefornia. Illinois, Oregon, New York, Taxachussetts, etc. I want as little to do with liberals as I possibly can. We share almost nothing in common. We aren't even living in the same reality. I'd rather be done with them. Family members included.
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