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$MSFT Final flow, some bidside in there. Will have to see what the OI looks like tomorrow
By: Theta Warrior | June 21, 2023
• $MSFT Final flow, some bidside in there. Will have to see what the OI looks like tomorrow.
Today's OI = 946 and Volume = 9,304
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Microsoft $MSFT - Over $2.5 mil premium in the 07/07/23 $330 CALLS
By: FLOWrensics | June 21, 2023
• $MSFT - Over $2.5 mil premium in the 07/07/23 $330 CALLS.
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT New ATH's on Friday. Huge move. Again much of the selling on Friday in these names was the rebalance. Watch the 8D...
By: Options Mike | June 19, 2023
• $MSFT New ATH's on Friday. Huge move. Again much of the selling on Friday in these names was the rebalance.
Watch the 8D...
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Microsoft (MSFT) Price Target Raised to $350.00
By: MarketBeat | June 15, 2023
• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) had its target price increased by investment analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $315.00 to $350.00 in a report issued on Thursday, The Fly reports. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s target price suggests a potential upside of 3.75% from the stock's previous close...
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Chart Of The Day: Microsoft - New Highs But Signs Of Caution
By: Barchart | June 16, 2023
The Chart of the Day belongs to the computer technology company Microsoft (MSFT) . I found the stock by using Barchart's powerful screening functions to find stocks with the highest technical buy signals, highest Weighted Alpha, superior current momentum and having a Trend Seeker buy signal then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation. Since the Trend Seeker signaled a buy on 4/26 the stock gained 16.63%.
MSFT Price vs Daily Moving Averages
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Microsoft $9.6 Million Call Split
By: Cheddar Flow | June 16, 2023
• $MSFT $9.6M
*Above the Ask*
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When section 702 is shut down the cloud evaporates!
Microsoft $MSFT *SIZE* Put Writer in the 09/15 $330 PUTS ~ $6.04 mil/6310 contracts
By: FLOWrensics | June 15, 2023
• $MSFT SIZE put writer in the 09/15 $330 PUTS ~ $6.04 mil/6310 contracts.
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Time to take out the trash of both countries!
Xi wont go anywhere because he knows the probability is high that he will never return!
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/bill-gates-will-reportedly-meet-chinas-xi-this-week.html
Microsoft $2.1 Million Puts • Strike: 335 • Expiration: 8/18/23
By: Cheddar Flow | June 14, 2023
• $MSFT $2.1M OTM Puts
Strike: 335
Expiration: 8/18/23
*At the Ask*
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US judge temporarily blocks Microsoft acquisition of Activision
By: David Shepardson | June 13, 2023
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A U.S. judge late on Tuesday granted the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) request to temporarily block Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) and set a hearing next week.
U.S. District Judge Edward Davila scheduled a two-day evidentiary hearing on the FTC's request for a preliminary injunction for June 22-23 in San Francisco. Without a court order, Microsoft could have closed on the $69 billion deal as early as Friday.
The FTC, which enforces antitrust law, asked an administrative judge to block the transaction in early December. An evidential hearing in the administrative proceeding is set to begin Aug. 2.
Based on the late-June hearing, the federal court will decide whether a preliminary injunction - which would last during the administrative review of the case - is necessary. The FTC sought the temporary block on Monday.
Davila said the temporary restraining order issued on Tuesday "is necessary to maintain the status quo while the complaint is pending (and) preserve this court’s ability to order effective relief in the event it determines a preliminary injunction is warranted and preserve the FTC’s ability to obtain an effective permanent remedy in the event that it prevails in its pending administrative proceeding."
Microsoft and Activision must submit legal arguments opposing a preliminary injunction by June 16; the FTC must reply on June 20.
Activision, which said Monday the FTC decision to seek a federal court order was "a welcome update and one that accelerates the legal process," declined to comment Tuesday.
Microsoft said Tuesday "accelerating the legal process in the U.S will ultimately bring more choice and competition to the gaming market. A temporary restraining order makes sense until we can receive a decision from the court, which is moving swiftly."
The FTC declined to comment.
Davila said the bar on closing will remain in place until at least five days after the court rules on the preliminary injunction request.
The FTC has argued the transaction would give Microsoft's video game console Xbox exclusive access to Activision games, leaving Nintendo consoles and Sony (NYSE:SONY) Group Corp's PlayStation out in the cold.
Microsoft's bid to acquire the "Call of Duty" video game maker was approved by the EU in May, but British competition authorities blocked the takeover in April.
Microsoft has said the deal would benefit gamers and gaming companies alike, and has offered to sign a legally binding consent decree with the FTC to provide "Call of Duty" games to rivals including Sony for a decade.
The case reflects the muscular approach to antitrust enforcement taken by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
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Microsoft $3.2 Million Call • Strike: 320 • Expiration: 6/16/23
By: Cheddar Flow | June 13, 2023
• $MSFT $3.2M Call
Strike: 320
Expiration: 6/16/23
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) May just be starting to go into digestion mode...
By: Options Mike | June 11, 2023
• $MSFT Above the 21D still, but some of the air came out of this trade and other big tech names last Wednesday
May just be starting to go into digestion mode...
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Consider your purchase of Activision Canceled!
Microsoft Stock May Have Peaked, But It's Still On Track For Solid Growth
By: Barchart | June 9, 2023
Microsoft (MSFT) stock reached its 5-year peak recently and hit a price of $335.40 on June 2, near its 2021 peak of $343.11 on Nov. 19, 2021. However, MSFT stock may slip a bit from here, as investors try to decide whether the US is going to enter a recession.
Nevertheless, Microsoft is still on track for solid free cash flow (FCF) growth over the next year. As a result, this makes MSFT stock a good play for long-term investors.
Solid FCF Growth
I discussed this play and Microsoft's solid FCF in my last article a month ago on May 10, “Unusual Call Option Activity in Microsoft Indicates a Bullish Outlook On MSFT Stock.” For example, based on the company's April 25 earnings release and earnings call slides for its Q3 fiscal quarter ending March 31, the company's FCF was $17.8 billion.
Although this was down 11% year-over-year, it was really only 5% lower at $19 billion on an adjusted basis, after excluding a one-time tax effect. More importantly from a forecasting perspective, its FCF margin was 35.9% based on $52.9 billion in revenue.
In other words, well over a third of its revenue, almost 36% goes straight to the bottom line, based on its superior cash flow profitability. We can use that to come up with a price target for MSFT stock.
Using FCF Margins To Estimate Its Value
One way to do this is the use analysts' estimates for forecasted revenue and apply an FCF margin, and then use a reasonable multiple for the stock. For example, analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha estimate revenue for the year ending June 30, 2024, could reach $235.74 billion.
That is up 11.5% from their estimates of $211.38 billion for the year ending June 30, 2023. If we assume that FCF margins will stay at 36% then, its free cash flow could hit $84.9 billion (i.e., 0.36x $211.38 billion) in 2024.
This is a massive amount of FCF, especially since for the year ending June 30, 2022, Microsoft generated just $65.1 billion in free cash flow. And for the year ending June 30, 2023, using a 36% margin, FCF could be $76.1 billion (i.e., 0.36x $211.38 billion).
As a result, we can say that the market will highly value the company's consistent FCF margins and growth. For example, right now, MSFT stock has a market cap of $2,480 billion (i.e., $2.48 trillion). This is 32.6x its June 30, fiscal year FCF estimates.
Setting A Price Target For MSFT Stock
Since the market always looks forward, we can estimate that in 3 to 6 months, the market will expect FCF will reach $84.9 billion (see above). Using a multiple of 33x, this pushes its market cap estimate in the future to $2.8 trillion. That is 13% higher than its present $2.48 trillion market cap.
But that is not the final calculation if we want to estimate a per-share price target. This is because Microsoft is buying back its shares at the rate of at least $4.6 billion a quarter. That is an annual rate of $18.4 billion, which represents 0.74% of its $2.48 trillion market value. That means that we can add that percentage to the 13% expected price target growth.
Here is the final result. MSFT stock is worth at least 13.74% more than its price today of $323.84 per share. That puts its price target at $368.34, which will be an all-time high.
That is why despite the stock's short-term weakness, long-term investors should take a patient view based on its powerful FCF.
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Jefferies sees low probability of Microsoft, Activision Blizzard deal
By: Investing.com | June 9, 2023
Jefferies analysts said Friday that they see Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) acquisition of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) as a low probability.
The analysts told investors in a note that there have been enough unusual antics over the past 6 weeks that suggest to them there is a chance the deal goes through despite the U.K. CMA blocking it.
"The denial by the CMA and the approval by EU regulators has created what appears to us a lot of political pressure," wrote the analysts. "Additionally, Microsoft seems as aggressive as possible to get this deal done—that it might be possible for something as incredible as the first CMA capitulation to occur again."
"Secondarily—because MSFT is aggressive in getting this deal done, we wonder if/when they re-negotiate to extend the deal with Activision (they have to if they plan to see through the appeals process), the merger agreement is changed to include a U.K. carve out—we believe ATVI-related revenue sold via Xbox in the U.K. is immaterial," they added.
As a result, Jefferies still put the deal "as a low probability, but it has to be higher than zero."
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Microsoft $2.8 Million Put • Strike: 310 • Expiration: 8/18/23
By: Cheddar Flow | June 7, 2023
• $MSFT $2.8M OTM Put
Strike: 310
Expiration: 8/18/23
*At the Ask*
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Microsoft Corp. ($MSFT) Reacts Higher From The Blue Box Area.
By: EWFTaha | June 5, 2023
Good Day Traders and Investors. In today’s article, we will look at the past performance of the 1 Hour Elliott Wave chart of Microsoft Corp. ($MSFT) The rally from 5.24.2023 low unfolded as a 5 wave impulse with an incomplete bullish sequence from 4.25.2023 low. So, we advised members to buy the pullback in 3 swings at the blue box area ($328.38 – 323.73). We will explain the structure & forecast below:
$MSFT 1H Elliott Wave Chart 6.01.2023:
Here is the 1H Elliott Wave count from 6.01.2023. The rally from 5.24.2023 unfolded in a 5 wave impulse which signaled a bullish trend. We expected the pullback to find buyers in 3 swings at $328.38 – 323.73 where we entered as buyers.
$MSFT 1H Elliott Wave Chart Latest View:
Here is the latest 1H update showing the move taking place as expected. The stock has reacted higher ending the cycle from 5.30.2023 peak and eventually breaking above it which confirms more upside is to be seen. We remain long with a risk free position targeting new all time highs and won’t be surprised to see $MSFT trading towards $380 – 435 area in the near term.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Sells 3,684 Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
By: Ark Invest Daily | June 2, 2023
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 6/2.
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Microsoft ranks most favorably in BofA's AI framework
By: Investing.com | May 30, 2023
BofA analysts told investors in a research note Tuesday that software vendors such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), and Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) have key components that will bode well in the race for artificial intelligence (AI) leadership.
In the note assessing the AI landscape, the analysts said the most notable factors expected to contribute to AI success are access to high volumes of quality data — which, they said, favors large incumbent software vendors like MSFT, ORCL, and CRM — market-leading install bases for ongoing data acquisition, and highly specialized solutions embedded within enterprises.
"MSFT ranks most favorably based on our framework, followed ORCL, CRM, and HUBS," they wrote. "Our system also identifies DDOG, WDAY, NOW, CCCS, VEEV, and SHOP as likely AI beneficiaries."
The analysts also revealed that recent investor conversations suggest that, for many stocks in the firm's coverage, "previously underwritten assumptions for a wide variety of factors – competitive moat/sustainable growth potential/pricing power/TAM – are being thoroughly reevaluated."
"AI/gen AI is already moving markets, with stocks re-rating higher and lower on both tangible evidence and convincingly told stories," they added.
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Microsoft stock target raised at Wedbush on ChatGPT success
By: Investing.com | May 30, 2023
Wedbush analysts boosted the price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares to $375 (from $340 per share) to reflect the “resilient cloud deal flow and the AI monetization opportunity.”
The analysts also reiterated an Outperform rating and the stock’s place on Wedbush’s Best Idea List.
“We strongly believe the first step for MSFT was Azure/Office 365 with the next step ChatGPT/AI monetization on both the consumer and enterprise fronts combined adding $40 to $50 per share to MSFT's sum-of-the parts valuation,” they said in a client note.
“We believe Nvidia's "jaw dropping guidance" heard around the world is a direct AI barometer for Redmond as our recent checks further confirm the monetization opportunity for MSFT is happening much sooner than the Street had anticipated in the field,” analysts added.
Analysts estimate that for every $100 of cloud Azure spend, there is $35-40 of AI spend “now on the table.” They project the AI market opportunity at $800 billion over the next decade.
While Wedbush remains bullish on non-AI segments of Microsoft’s portfolio, analysts argue that ChatGPT “will be the next leg of the growth stool for Microsoft.”
“Our thesis remains that the cloud and underlying Office 365/Windows ecosystem is going to comprise a bigger and bigger piece of Redmond going forward and will ultimately spur growth and margins into FY23/FY24 despite this downturn. We also believe Redmond is just starting to hit its next gear of growth with ChatGPT and AI also adding a new layer of growth to the MSFT story over the coming years,” analysts concluded.
Microsoft shares are up 1.1% in pre-market Tuesday.
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Working towards ATH.. hard to chase this hot here. I prefer to buy dips to the 8D now
By: Options Mike | May 29, 2023
• $MSFT working towards ATH.. hard to chase this hot here. I prefer to buy dips to the 8D now.
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Seasonality data for Microsoft Corp. $MSFT (10 Years)
By: TrendSpider | May 28, 2023
• Seasonality data for Microsoft Corp. $MSFT (10 Years).
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$MSFT Total Debt (mrq) $79.31B
Microsoft $MSFT Decent size for shorter dated expiration ~ 06/09 $322.50 PUTS ~ $1.6 mil premium/3K contracts
By: FLOWrensics | May 25, 2023
• $MSFT Decent size for shorter dated expiration ~ 06/09 $322.50 PUTS ~ $1.6 mil premium/3K contracts.
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Today Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | May 25, 2023
• Today (8:36 CST), the best performer in the $DJIA is Microsoft Corporation.
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Microsoft $1.0 Million Put • Strike: 300 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | May 24, 2023
• $MSFT $1.0M OTM Put
Strike: 300
Expiration: 12/15/23
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$MSFT Whale Rolls Up and Out Locks In $100 Million
By: Theta Warrior | May 23, 2023
• $MSFT WHALE ROLLS UP AND OUT LOCKS IN $100M.
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JUST IN: OpenAI will start using Microsoft's $MSFT Bing as the default search experience for ChatGPT
By: StockMKTNewz | May 23, 2023
• JUST IN:
OpenAI will start using Microsoft's $MSFT Bing as the default search experience for ChatGPT.
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Jefferies today raised its price target on Microsoft $MSFT to $400 from $350 while maintaining its Buy rating
By: StockMKTNewz | May 23, 2023
• Jefferies today raised its price target on Microsoft $MSFT to $400 from $350 while maintaining its Buy rating
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$MSFT exec continues to dump stock, selling more than $7.5 million worth of shares this month
By: Cheddar Flow | May 22, 2023
• $MSFT exec continues to dump stock, selling more than $7.5 million worth of shares this month.
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* * * http://openinsider.com/search?q=MSFT
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Playing the AI Megatrend
By: Joe Duarte | May 21, 2023
Playing the AI Megatrend
If nothing else, Wall Street is good at creating buzz over technology trends. And this one's no different than any of the past ones. Thus, when ChatGPT started to gather steam, so too did the Nasdaq 100 bottom out. I detail the recent action in the index below. But, as I noted last week, owning the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), or stocks which are housed in the ETF, has paid off from an investment standpoint.
Note that QQQ, along with NDX, started to bottom out in November 2022, just as ChatGPT started making headlines. Specifically, the big tech bottom began in late 2022, while ChatGPT was "born" on November 30. Since then, NDX, led by a handful of the usual-suspects mega-cap tech stocks, has been on a tear, which culminated with a breakout above 13,300 on 5/18/23.
Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL), among others, have broken out to new highs, because of their association or potential association with A.I. Of the three, the most reliable as a bellwether for what's likely to happen in the A.I. segment is Microsoft. That's because an increasing percentage of its earnings is coming from its cloud services division.
Another high flyer on the A.I. whirlwind has been Nvidia (NVDA), long known for its next generation gaming chips and more recently for its association with A.I. via its graphics processing unit heavy lifting data processing chips (GPU).
My point is that it's clear A.I. is going to be something to deal with as an investor for the next few years. At the same time, it's a bit mindboggling that the biggest beneficiaries of what should be a breakthrough technology are stodgy old tech companies like Microsoft, instead of a startup or two who delivered the technology and are making it available.
For the record, the creator of ChatGPT, Open AI, is still described as a Unicorn and is not publicly traded. Of course, knowing Wall Street, that could change sooner rather than later, unless of course someone buys the company out before it goes public.
Moreover, the big tech stocks have come a long way over the last six months and are due for some sort of pause. At the same time, there are still lots of well-run fundamentally sound tech stocks which have yet to pop. In other words, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that, even as the current crop of tech giants consolidate after their heady gains, the next tier will start to pick up steam.
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Hope ya covered 
Options Traders Bet Big on Microsoft Stock
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | May 15, 2023
• Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard is moving forward
• MSFT is holding near annual highs this month
Big Tech Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) once again landed on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks with the highest weekly options volume in the last two weeks. Per White's data, 1,945,366 calls and 1,509,180 puts were exchanged over the last two weeks, with the weekly 5/12 310-strike call the most popular.
Microsoft stock was last seen trading at $309.24, sporting a marginal midday lead even after European Union (EU) regulators approved the company's proposed $69 billion buyout of Activision Blizzard. The deal was previously stalled after the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) blocked the acquisition due to competition concerns.
Bearish bets have been the popular pick amongst options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX),MSFT sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.60 that ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range.
After starting the year below $220, MSFT worked its way up the charts to an annual high of $313 by May 10, helped along by a post-earnings bear gap on April 25. Year-to-date, Microsoft stock is up more than 29%, with recent consolidation around $305 worth watching.
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Microsoft $2.6 Million+ Calls • Strike: 310 • Expiration: 9/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | May 15, 2023
• $MSFT $2.6M+ OTM Calls
Strike: 310
Expiration: 9/15/23
*At the Ask*
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EU antitrust regulators clear $69 billion Microsoft, Activision deal
By: Investing.com | May 15, 2023
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - EU antitrust regulators on Monday cleared Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s $69 billion acquisition of Activision, saying remedies offered by the U.S. software giant addressed their concerns.
The European Commission said Microsoft has offered 10-year free licensing deals to European consumers and cloud game streaming services to stream Activision's PC and console games, confirming a Reuters report in March.
"The commitments fully address the competition concerns identified by the Commission and represent a significant improvement for cloud gaming as compared to the current situation," the EU competition watchdog said in a statement.
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Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
By: StockMKTNewz | May 14, 2023
• Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
1987: +124.8%
1988: -1.8%
1989: +63.4%
1990: +73%
1991: +121.8%
1992: +15.1%
1993: -5.6%
1994: +51.7%
1995: +43.6%
1996: +88.3%
1997: +56.4%
1998: +114.6%
1999: +68.4%
2000: -62.8%
2001: +52.7%
2002: -22%
2003: +6.8%
2004: +8.9%
2005: -1%
2006: +15.8%
2007: +20.8%
2008: -44.4%
2009: +60.5%
2010: -6.5%
2011: -4.5%
2012: +5.8%
2013: +44.3%
2014: +27.5%
2015: +22.7%
2016: +15.1%
2017: +40.7%
2018: +20.8%
2019: +57%
2020: +42.5%
2021: +52.5%
2022: -28%
2023*: +29.2% (So Far)
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Tough last week, break out then gaps down.. ouch. 8D holding and one of the best reports this Q so far
By: Options Mike | May 14, 2023
• $MSFT Tough last week, break out then gaps down.. ouch. 8D holding and one of the best reports this Q so far.
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