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Microsoft $MSFT Size Limit Buyer
By: Theta Warrior | January 31, 2024
• $MSFT Size Limit Buyer.
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$MSFT Very Unusual $5.1M Put High Premium and Vol > OI, so it is an Opening Order
By: Cheddar Flow | January 31, 2024
• $MSFT Very Unusual $5.1M Put
High Premium and Vol > OI, so it is an Opening Order
~2 months until expiration
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Thank you Microsoft for the deal with MARK!!! Does anyone know anything about such in here? Very lucrative deal between Microsoft and MARK
Microsoft $MSFT Just Reported Earnings
By: Evan | January 30, 2024
• MICROSOFT $MSFT JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
EPS of $2.93 beating expectations of $2.77
Revenue of $62B beating expectations of $61.1B
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MSFT new 52=week high
Microsoft (MSFT): Technical Analysis and Price Forecast
By: Bruce Powers | January 25, 2024
• Apple stock shows early signs of hitting resistance while Microsoft, a market leader, hits a $3 trillion market valuation, but a potential short-term pullback may happen soon.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
The stock of Microsoft was a market leader last year as well, and it remains so for the start of 2024. However, it may be ready for a pullback soon. On Wednesday, it reached a high of $405.63 and a new high market capitalization of $3 trillion dollars before pulling back. They are the second company to do so after Apple Corp. However, the high was almost an exact match with the completion of a 200% extension of the most recent retracement. In addition, several other Fibonacci targets levels are around that price increasing the chance to see signs of resistance as selling pressure builds. Wednesday closed weak with a possible bearish shooting candlestick pattern.
Microsoft is a Leader in the AI Revolution
Through its partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) company OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, Microsoft is at the forefront of the AI revolution. It has established itself as a leader in the sector with that partnership. Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on January 30.
Retracement May Test 20-Day Moving Average Support
The most recent breakout level for Microsoft stock was $384.30. It corresponds to potential support around the 61.8% retracement of the most recent upswing at 381.86 and the 20-Day MA at $382.69. Microsoft stock broke out above the 20-Day line three weeks ago and it has not yet been tested as support. You can see how much of the month of December the 20-Day MA marked resistance. It would be healthy for the uptrend if the 20-Day line is tested as support. This does not mean it will be if a retracement kicks in, but it could.
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Nonstop Tech Call Buying on $QQQ, $MSFT, $NVDA Today
By: Cheddar Flow | January 24, 2024
• Incredible. "Unusual" is an understatement
Nonstop Tech Call Buying on $QQQ, $MSFT, $NVDA Today
These orders are all OTM, have a high premium, and are near expiration
This is super bullish
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Microsoft $MSFT $3.5+ Million Unusual Put Seller Vol > OI so these are being sold to open (Bullish)
By: Cheddar Flow | January 23, 2024
• $MSFT $3.5M+ Unusual Put Seller
Vol > OI so these are being sold to open (Bullish)
There's only a couple weeks until expiration and the trader expects Microsoft to stay up around 400 during that time
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Sells 4,093 Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
By: Ark Invest Daily | January 22, 2024
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 1/22.
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MSFT new 52 week high
$AAPL, $MSFT, & $META had the most bullish flow today
By: Cheddar Flow | January 18, 2024
• $AAPL, $MSFT, & $META had the most bullish flow today
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$MSFT $7.1 Million Put Sell Order (STO) Vol > OI, so it sold to open (Bullish)
By: Cheddar Flow | January 18, 2024
• $MSFT $7.1M Put Sell Order (STO)
Highly unusual amount of premium
Vol > OI, so it sold to open (Bullish)
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Microsoft $MSFT High-Premium Call Sweepers. Even though these prints are ITM, the premium and consistency are notable
By: Cheddar Flow | January 17, 2024
• $MSFT High-Premium Call Sweepers
Even though these prints are ITM, the premium and consistency are notable
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Options Traders Target World's Most Valuable Company
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 16, 2024
• Microsoft inked a $1.5 billion deal with Vodafone
• The company is now the most valuable publicly traded company in the world
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock is 0.8% higher this afternoon to trade at $391.23. The equity earlier hit an all-time high of $394.03, after inking a $1.5 billion deal with Vodafone (VOD). The 10-year partnership will bring generative artificial intelligence (AI), digital, enterprise, and cloud services to more than 300 million businesses and users across Europe and Africa.
The Big Tech concern is on fire in the first month of the year, especially after its market cap rose to $2.89 trillion last week to overtake Apple (AAPL) as the world's most valuable public company. Investments in the accelerating AI market have boosted MSFT's share price, while slower iPhone sales in China are pressuring AAPL.
In response, Microsoft stock once again landed on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks with the highest weekly options volume in the last two weeks. Per White's data, 3,017,416 calls and 1,440,794 puts were exchanged over the last two weeks, with the weekly 1/12 385-strike call standing as the most popular contract over this time period.
As previously mentioned, MSFT is trading at record highs, and today crossed the $390 mark for the second time ever. Just three weeks into 2024, the security is already up 4.1% year to date, and boasts a 63.5% year-over-year lead.
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Microsoft's $MSFT market cap at the start of every year since going public
By: Evan | January 13, 2024
• Microsoft's $MSFT market cap at the start of every year since going public
1986: $690M (Went public in March 1986)
1987: $1.2B
1988: $3B
1989: $3B
1990: $5B
1991: $8.5B
1992: $20B
1993: $26B
1994: $22B
1995: $35B
1996: $50B
1997: $100B
1998: $160B
1999: $350B
2000: $600B
2001: $250B
2002: $360B
2003: $280B
2004: $300B
2005: $290B
2006: $280B
2007: $290B
2008: $325B
2009: $180B
2010: $270B
2011: $235B
2012: $220B
2013: $230B
2014: $300B
2015: $380B
2016: $434B
2017: $480B
2018: $660B
2019: $777B
2020: $1.2T
2021: $1.6T
2022: $2.5T
2023: $1.8T
2024: $2.8T
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Microsoft $MSFT Very Bullish Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | January 8, 2024
• $MSFT Very Bullish Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
Continuous sweep orders + A lot of premium is a sign of bullish bias
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Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
By: Savvy Trader | January 4, 2024
• Microsoft's $MSFT stock performance each full year since going public
1987: +124.8%
1988: -1.8%
1989: +63.4%
1990: +73%
1991: +121.8%
1992: +15.1%
1993: -5.6%
1994: +51.7%
1995: +43.6%
1996: +88.3%
1997: +56.4%
1998: +114.6%
1999: +68.4%
2000: -62.8%
2001: +52.7%
2002: -22%
2003: +6.8%
2004: +8.9%
2005: -1%
2006: +15.8%
2007: +20.8%
2008: -44.4%
2009: +60.5%
2010: -6.5%
2011: -4.5%
2012: +5.8%
2013: +44.3%
2014: +27.5%
2015: +22.7%
2016: +15.1%
2017: +40.7%
2018: +20.8%
2019: +57%
2020: +42.5%
2021: +52.5%
2022: -28%
2023: +58.2%
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Microsoft $MSFT - The target for January is the 1.618 extension of the July-October correction at 402. There's a bigger target at the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market at 434 that will be reached later in 2024 and an even bigger potential cup & handle target at 480.
By: CyclesFan | January 1, 2024
• $MSFT - The target for January is the 1.618 extension of the July-October correction at 402. There's a bigger target at the 1.618 extension of the 2022 bear market at 434 that will be reached later in 2024 and an even bigger potential cup & handle target at 480.
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Today Goldman Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | December 29, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Microsoft Corporation. MSFT.
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Microsoft's (MSFT) 'iPhone moment' is here declares Wedbush analysts
By: Investing | December 28, 2023
Wedbush raised its price target for tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to $450 from $425 in a note to clients Thursday, maintaining its Outperform rating on the stock. Analysts declared in their note that Microsoft's "'iPhone moment' is here."
Wedbush, which sees Microsoft as one of the best ideas for 2024, said the iPhone moment is based on the fact that artificial intelligence (AI) monetization is set to change the company's cloud growth trajectory over the next few years.
"In a nutshell, based on our recent work in the field, we believe over the next 3 years over 60% of its MSFT installed base will ultimately be on this AI functionality for the enterprise/ commercial, which changes the landscape for Nadella & Co going forward," analysts said. "While AI use cases will build markedly in FY24 its clear FY25 for Redmond remains the true inflection year of AI growth with pricing, beta customers, and use cases all being rolled out over the next 3-6 months."
Wedbush believes the stock has yet to price in what they view as the next wave of cloud and AI growth coming to the MSFT story in FY24 with a "strong competitive cloud edge vs. Amazon and Google." Furthermore, analysts said their firm's recent partner checks have been incrementally strong around Co-Pilot deployments with MSFT customers, and they estimate this could add another ~$25 billion to the company's top line by FY25.
"Over the last few weeks, in our numerous conversations with Microsoft customers, partners, and field checks, it has become crystal clear to us that the monetization opportunities around deploying AI and ChatGPT in the cloud is a transformational opportunity across the industry with Redmond in the driver's seat," added analysts.
They declared: "We continue to believe this is a '1995 Moment' with a transformational tech spending wave not seen since the start of the Internet."
Microsoft shares have performed well in 2023, climbing more than 52%. Ahead of the open on Thursday, they are up around 0.3%, trading above the $375 mark.
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Microsoft $MSFT Millions Worth of Put Sellers
By: Cheddar Flow | December 26, 2023
• $MSFT Millions Worth of Put Sellers
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Wishing everyone Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
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Microsoft $MSFT ER flow..the buyer INTENDS to hold through...could be used for a runup and punt for a degen
By: FLOWrensics | December 22, 2023
• $MSFT ER flow..the buyer INTENDS to hold through...could be used for a runup and punt for a degen
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Microsoft $MSFT ~$2 Million ITM Call Sweepers
By: Cheddar Flow | December 22, 2023
• $MSFT ~$2M ITM Call Sweepers
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Microsoft ending support for Windows 10 could send 240 million PCs to landfills - report
By: Investing | December 21, 2023
(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s plan to end support for Windows 10 operating system could result in about 240 million personal computers (PCs) being disposed, potentially adding to landfill waste, Canalys Research said.
The electronic waste from these PCs could weigh an estimated 480 million kilograms, equivalent to 320,000 cars.
While many PCs could remain functional for years post the end of OS support, Canalys warned demand for devices without security updates could be low.
Microsoft announced a plan to provide security updates for Windows 10 devices until October 2028 for an undisclosed annual price.
If the pricing structure for extended Windows 10 support mirrors past trends, migrating to newer PCs could be more cost-effective, increasing the number of older PCs heading to scrap, Canalys said.
Microsoft aims to discontinue support for Windows 10 by October 2025. The next generation of the OS, anticipated to bring advanced artificial intelligence technology to PCs, could potentially boost the sluggish PC market.
Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the environmental impact of disposal of Windows 11-incompatible devices.
Hard drives used in personal computers and data storage servers are recycled to gather materials for use in electric vehicle motors and even renewable power generation.
"Turning end-of-life computers into the magnets that power sustainable technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines will help meet the rising global demand for electricity," said Noveon Magnetics Chief Commercial Officer Peter Afiuny.
Afiuny added hard drives are often discarded before they reach the end of their functional lifespan, creating an excess of rare earth magnetic material waste.
Battery recycling firm Redwood (NYSE:RWT) Materials said batteries can be nearly infinitely recycled to recover metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper.
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Microsoft $MSFT Repeat ITM Buyer
By: Theta Warrior | December 20, 2023
• $MSFT Repeat ITM Buyer.
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Endless Bullish Tech Flow: $MSFT, $META, $SPX
By: Cheddar Flow | December 20, 2023
• Endless Bullish Tech Flow
$MSFT, $META, $SPX
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$MSFT & $NVDA Calls Flooding The Tape This Morning
By: Cheddar Flow | December 20, 2023
• $MSFT & $NVDA Calls Flooding The Tape This Morning
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Microsoft Azure gaining steam but Amazon's AWS still holds top spot - Jefferies
By: Investing | December 20, 2023
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure is gaining steam in the cloud market, according to Jefferies analysts in a note Wednesday. However, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services (AWS) "still wears the crown."
Jefferies surveyed 40 U.S. CIOs and found that both platforms are best positioned to gain incremental spend over the next two years, with 80% of CIOs planning to boost cloud spending in 2024.
According to the firm, Azure screened positively, with a higher share of CIOs planning to spend "significantly more" over the next 24 months.
"We continue to believe AWS is well positioned to capture growing cloud spend and drive large incremental dollar gains, supported by its strong market position, broad product suite, strong partner network and improving AI positioning," said Jefferies.
For AWS, 80% of CIOs expect their cloud spending to increase year-over-year in 2024, while 3% expect it will decline, and 18% expect it will be unchanged.
"We believe the cloud industry is setting up for an acceleration in '24 as cloud cost optimizations fade and companies look to restart their digital transformations," said analysts at the firm.
However, they noted that AI and ML are not major drivers behind why customers intend to increase cloud spend. Instead, customers who plan to increase their AWS and Azure spend said compute and storage were the two primary reasons.
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Microsoft $MSFT Headed for that golden fib extension at $400?
By: TrendSpider | December 18, 2023
• $MSFT Headed for that golden fib extension at $400?
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Very Bullish Microsoft $MSFT Flow Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | December 18, 2023
• Very Bullish $MSFT Flow Hitting The Tape
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Microsoft $MSFT ER run up play..$2.3+ Million Calls
By: FLOWrensics | December 18, 2023
• $MSFT ER run up play..
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Microsoft $MSFT - It looks like it's building a small bull flag on the weekly chart. Once the pullback is complete, I expect a rally to at least the 1.618 extension of the July-October decline at 402 during January.
By: CyclesFan | December 17, 2023
• $MSFT - It looks like it's building a small bull flag on the weekly chart. Once the pullback is complete, I expect a rally to at least the 1.618 extension of the July-October decline at 402 during January.
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BofA has 'more conviction' about Microsoft's durable growth from cloud and AI
By: Investing | December 14, 2023
BofA analysts lifted the Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) price target to $430 from $415 per share in a note Thursday, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.
The firm's note states that the investment bank is now more convinced about the company's durable growth from its cloud and AI products.
BofA met with the CFOs of Microsoft’s business units at Microsoft’s Redmond, WA, headquarters on Tuesday. "We come away from the meetings with higher conviction on the durability of growth in the core Office and Azure growth franchises," analysts said.
"We believe that there is potential for commercial office to accelerate from the current mid-teens growth level in the coming quarters from the gradual contribution from the new M365 copilot. We estimate that each 1% penetration represents $576 million revenue and 1.5% incremental growth," analysts added.
The investment bank cited the Azure business, the ongoing ramp of OpenAI, and the potential for improving public cloud workload migration exiting the tougher macro as factors likely to drive upside to the firm's estimates for mid-20s growth.
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Macquarie raises Microsoft’s price target, bullish on AI Copilot
By: Investing | December 13, 2023
Macquarie raised its price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to $430.00 from $405.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, saying shares are undervalued on the AI copilot opportunities.
The analysis suggests that Microsoft's current AI copilot portfolio could bring in approximately $9.1 billion in additional revenue. This increase in revenue is expected to come with a high gross margin ranging between 61% and 91%, potentially leading to a $0.49 increase in EPS by the fiscal year 2026 in the base-case scenario.
In an optimistic scenario with higher uptake and user density per machine, the EPS boost could reach as much as $2.17. Conversely, a more conservative estimate, factoring in lower uptake and heavy usage by a smaller group of power users impacting gross margins, predicts a $0.06 increase in EPS.
The approach to assessing the revenue potential involves analyzing the adoption rates of each AI copilot product by the end of the fiscal year 2025. Insights from AI industry leaders indicate that enterprises are likely to spend the 2024 fiscal year evaluating and pilot-testing these applications. This process is expected to lead to significant adoption starting in 2025, once the initial assessments are completed and data on the effectiveness of AI copilots is available.
“In our base case, we estimate that Microsoft could generate ~$7.3bn of incremental ARR from M365 Copilot by the end of FY'25E from the ~20mn users that our 5% uptake rate Implies. We believe this is reasonable as M365 Copilot is available for purchase at a price of $30/user/month by M365 E3 or E5 customers, or by small and mid-sized businesses with M365 Business Standard or Business Premium licenses,” commented the analysts.
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Today Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | December 13, 2023
• Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the $DJIA is Microsoft Corporation. $MSFT.
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Microsoft Insider Trading Alert: Chief People Officer Kathleen Hogan sold 24,681 $MSFT shares for a total value of $9.1 million. That sale represented approximately 12% of her stake in the company.
By: Barchart | December 12, 2023
• Microsoft Insider Trading Alert
Chief People Officer Kathleen Hogan sold 24,681 $MSFT shares for a total value of $9.1 million. That sale represented approximately 12% of her stake in the company.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Buys 8,810 Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
By: Ark Invest Daily | December 11, 2023
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 12/11.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Could Be Worth Over $500 Per Share Based on Its Massive Free Cash Flow
By: Barchart | December 11, 2023
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock is still undervalued based on its free cash flow upside in the next year. MSFT stock could be worth 39% more or $518 per share based on $96 billion in FCF estimates next year. This is also based on a potential 2.5% FCF yield valuation.
I show how this works out in this article below. I also show a cheap way for existing shareholders to play this for extra income by shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options.
I already discussed this in my prior Barchart article on Nov. 14, but now I am updating this projection. Since then, MSFT stock has risen to $374.23 as of Friday, Dec. 8.
FCF Estimates Close To $100 Billion In The Next 12 Months
My target price is based on its free cash flow (FCF) and where it could rise in the next 12 months (NTM). For example, it made $20.7 billion in FCF in its latest quarter ending Sept. 30, according to page 5 of its shareholder deck. That was up 22% YoY.
Microsoft shareholder deck FY 2024 Q1 ending Sept. 30, 2023 - page 5
More importantly, this represented 36.6% of the total revenue of $56.5 billion for the quarter. That 37% FCF margin implies that if sales reach $243 billion this fiscal year (ending June 30, based on analysts' estimates for 2024) free cash flow could rise to $90 billion. That is seen by multiplying $243 billion by 0.37.
And for the year ending June 2025, analysts forecast $276.75 billion, FCF could rise to $102.4 billion. That implies that the average FCF estimate over the NTM is $96.2 billion.
That is close to $100 billion in FCF projections sometime in the next 2 years. How will the market value this?
MSFT Stock Could Be Worth $518 Per Share
Here is how I think the market will value MSFT stock. In the last 12 months (LTM) Microsoft has generated $95.967 billion in cash flow from operations (CFFO). After deducting $31.741 billion in capex spending, its LTM FCF was $63.226 billion. These figures can be seen in Seeking Alpha's cash flow statements page for the LTM ending Sept. 30.
Now since Microsoft presently has a market capitalization of $2,773 billion, that means that the market values the company with a 2.28% FCF metric. This is seen by dividing its $63.2 billion by its market cap (i.e., $63.22b / $2,773b = 0.0228).
So, we can use that FCF yield metric to value its NTM FCF, i.e., $96.2 billion. For example, if we use a more conservative FCF yield of 2.5% we get a market value estimate of $3,848 billion (i.e., $96.2b/.025 = $3,848 billion).
That market value estimate is 38.8% over today's market cap of $2,773 billion. In other words, MSFT stock is worth 39% more. That puts its price target at $518 per share (i.e., 1.39 x $374.23 per share).
So how can existing shareholders play this?
Shorting OTM Puts For Extra Income
One way for investors in MSFT stock to make money while they wait for the stock to hit this price target is to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. It's best to focus on puts that expire in near-term expiration periods like the Dec. 29 period, for example. That is just 3 weeks away.
For example, the $357.50 strike price put trades for $1.95 on the bid side. That play is 3% out-of-the-money (i.e., below today's price) and yields 0.545% (i.e., $1.95 / $357.50).
A more conservative play is the $350 strike price which trades for 99 cents. That is 5% OTM and yields 0.282% to the short seller of these puts.
MSFT put options expiring Dec. 29 - Barchart - As of Dec. 11, 2023
In any case, the annualized returns for both are still attractive. For example, the $357.50 strike price put yield works out to an annualized expected return (ER) of 9.27% (i.e., 0.545% x 17). This assumes the same trade can be repeated 17 times a year. Obviously, that won't always happen, but the ER calculation highlights the potential return at this rate.
The $350 strike price put yield works out to an annualized ER of 4.80% (i.e., 0.283% x 17). This has less of a chance of ever getting exercised since the strike price is 5% below today's price. But even if that happens the investor's obligation is simply to buy 100 MSFT shares at $350 per share. That would be done by the $35,000 that the investor has to secure with the brokerage firm at the time of entering the order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $350 per share for expiration on Dec. 29.
The bottom line is the MSFT is worth almost 40% more. Existing investors can get paid by shorting OTM strike prices in near-term expiration periods.
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Microsoft's $MSFT 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays... If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
By: TrendSpider | December 11, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft's 15-year seasonality gets increasingly bullish into the holidays...
If we get a Santa rally this year, watch this one to be a leader!
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Microsoft $MFST 21D held and money flowing back in. ATH coming? Looks it
By: Options Mike | December 10, 2023
• $MFST 21D held and money flowing back in.
ATH coming? Looks it.
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