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Microsoft $2.1 Million Worth of More Put Writing • Strike: 350 • Expiration: 8/11/23
By: Cheddar Flow | July 25, 2023
• $MSFT $2.1M Worth of More Put Writing -- The whale from this morning is already up 20%
Strike: 350
Expiration: 8/11/23
*Below the Bid*
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Getting ready! How is everyone anticipating this earnings report to be?
Microsoft $MSFT Whale $3.5 Million+ Worth of Put Writing
By: Cheddar Flow | July 25, 2023
• $MSFT Whale $3.5M+ Worth of Put Writing
Strike: 350
Expiration: 8/11/23
*At the Bid*
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History of Microsoft’s $MSFT Q2 Revenue
By: Evan | July 23, 2023
• History of Microsoft’s $MSFT Q2 Revenue
2009: $13.1B
2010: $16B
2011: $17.4B
2012: $18.1B
2013: $19.9B
2014: $23.4B
2015: $22.2B
2016: $26.4B
2017: $25.6B
2018: $30.1B
2019: $33.7B
2020: $38B
2021: $46.2B
2022: $51.9B
2023: Find out Tuesday
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Earnings Preview: Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | July 24, 2023
• Here is a look at three companies set to report quarterly results after markets close Tuesday afternoon.
Microsoft
Over the past 12 months, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has added 29.8% to its share price, including a gain of 43.4% so far in 2023. And while shares got a boost with the March launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, the share price increase has followed a trend line that began in January.
The recent pricing announcement for Microsoft’s CoPilot AI software gave the shares another jolt, but all the hype about AI is not expected to add much to either the top or bottom line. Microsoft’s fortunes remain tethered to Azure. That is unlikely to change in the second half of the calendar year (the first half of the company’s 2024 fiscal year).
Sentiment for Microsoft stock is virtually all positive. Of 51 analysts covering it, 43 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and seven more rate it at Hold. At a share price of around $344, the potential upside based on a median price target of $385 is about 11.9%. At the high target of $450, the implied gain is 30.8%.
For its fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, revenue at the Dow Jones industrial average component is forecast at $55.48 billion, up 5% sequentially and by 7.0% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $2.55, up 4% sequentially and 14.3% higher year over year. For the full fiscal year that ended in June, consensus estimates call for EPS of $9.63, up 4.6%, on revenue of $11.2 billion, up 6.5%.
Microsoft stock trades at 35.7 times expected 2023 EPS, 31.2 times estimated 2024 earnings of $11.02 and 27.2 times estimated 2025 earnings of $12.62 per share. The 52-week range is $213.43 to $366.78. Microsoft pays an annual dividend of $2.72 (yield of 0.78%). Total shareholder return over the past year was 31.06%.
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Microsoft's $MSFT first attempt at a real blue skies breakout was shut down on the highest weekly volume since January of 2022.
By: TrendSpider | July 22, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft's first attempt at a real blue skies breakout was shut down on the highest weekly volume since January of 2022.
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Microsoft Co. (MSFT) Shares Purchased by Cyndeo Wealth Partners LLC
By: MarketBeat | July 21, 2023
• Cyndeo Wealth Partners LLC increased its stake in shares of Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) by 7.9% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 111,312 shares of the software giant's stock after acquiring an additional 8,147 shares during the period. Cyndeo Wealth Partners LLC's holdings in Microsoft were worth $2,949,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period...
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ITS HELLISH to buy more at these prices
in he11 the fig newtons have the figs on the outside and the newton is in the middle..inside
Can’t wait!
$MSFT Total Debt (mrq) $79.31 Billion
Any inputs on $MSFT $355 Call expires on 07/21/2023?
Microsoft $MSFT Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | July 19, 2023
• $MSFT Call Sweepers Hitting The Tape
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Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Have Been Heavily Accumulated All Year
By: Markets & Mayhem | July 19, 2023
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) shares are up an eye-popping 50% in 2023. This uptrend is being powered by mega appetite for the stock.
Microsoft Attracts Big Money Inflows
Want an edge in trading? Follow the Big Money.
What’s Big Money? Said simply, it’s when a stock rises due to institutional demand. Top stocks tend to attract savvy investors.
You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outperforming stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.
The year-to-date action tells the story. Each green bar signals unusual buying volumes in MSFT shares, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Very few stocks have charts this strong. Recent green bars suggest strong demand. But, what about the fundamental story?
Microsoft Fundamental Analysis
Next, I want to make sure the fundamental story is healthy too. As you can see, MSFT has had positive sales growth and earnings growth the last 3 years:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+16.5%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+24.3%)
The forward estimates have EPS growth at +14.5%, giving a healthy forward outlook.
Source: FactSet
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary Big Money software has found some big winning stocks over the long-term.
Check this out. Microsoft has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has had buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report numerous times. The blue bars below show when MSFT was a top pick:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of the MAPsignals process.
Microsoft Price Prediction
The MSFT rally has been in place all year. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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You might say that there was a bit of interest in $MSFT calls yesterday
By: Markets & Mayhem | July 19, 2023
• You might say that there was a bit of interest in $MSFT calls yesterday
Chart: Goldman Sachs
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Cheers to that!!
$MSFT
Damn I Missed that 350 by a day! Thought it would’ve been Monday.. oh well. Go $MSFT BUUUUUULLLISH
Most Bullish Flow Today: $MSFT $TSLA $NVDA
By: Cheddar Flow | July 18, 2023
• Most Bullish Flow Today
$MSFT $TSLA $NVDA
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Microsoft $MSFT Flow > $1 Million Today
By: Cheddar Flow | July 18, 2023
• $MSFT Flow > $1M Today
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Microsoft $2.1 Million Call • Strike: 375 • Expiration: 8/18/23
By: Cheddar Flow | July 18, 2023
• $MSFT $2.1M OTM Call
Strike: 375
Expiration: 8/18/23
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft $MSFT Repeat Sweeper
By: Theta Warrior | July 18, 2023
• $MSFT REPEAT SWEEPER.
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Microsoft signs agreement to keep Call of Duty on Playstation
By: Investing.com | July 16, 2023
(Reuters) -Microsoft has signed an agreement to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation following the acquisition of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Gaming CEO Phil Spencer said in a tweet on Sunday.
A deal to keep Call of Duty on Playstation could further ease concerns surrounding the acquisition's impact on competition.
Speaking on the agreement, Microsoft President Brad Smith said in a tweet, "Even after we cross the finish line for this deal’s approval, we will remain focused on ensuring that Call of Duty remains available on more platforms and for more consumers than ever before."
The FTC had argued the deal would hurt consumers whether they played video games on consoles or had subscriptions because Microsoft would have an incentive to shut out rivals like Sony (NYSE:SONY) Group.
To address the FTC's concerns, Microsoft had earlier agreed to license "Call of Duty" to rivals, including a 10-year contract with Nintendo, contingent on the merger closing.
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT just couldn't quit hit ATH on Friday after that big u/g. Like $AAPL room to run if they want to rotate tech names. like it ATH
By: Options Mike | July 16, 2023
• $MSFT just couldn't quit hit ATH on Friday after that big u/g. Like $AAPL room to run if they want to rotate tech names. like it ATH.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Still Looks Undervalued - Traders Eyeing Options Plays
By: Barchart | July 16, 2023
Microsoft (MSFT) stock looks undervalued here based on its massive free cash flow (FCF). Its fiscal full-year results are due soon, which could push MSFT stock higher. That would be good for option traders.
The stock closed at $345.24, up $2.58, on Friday, July 14. That puts its overall YTD performance up 44.0%, although, in the last month since June 14, it has risen just 2.34% from $337.34.
Upside Potential In MSFT Stock
Nevertheless, MSFT stock still has considerable upside, as we discussed in our June 27 article, “Microsoft Stock Is Well Below Its Real Value - Making Short Put Plays Profitable."
For example, the article suggested that Microsoft could generate $85 billion in FCF for the next year ending June 30, 2024. At 33x FCF that gives it a market value of $2.8 trillion. This is 9.6% higher than today's $2.56 trillion market cap.
That implies the stock could still rise 10% from here to $379 or so. We can use that price target to help set trading parameters for options plays.
Call And Put Options Plays
In our last article, we discussed shorting out-of-the-money put options at both the $310 and $320 strike prices for expiration on July 21. Since MSFT stock has risen, both of these are options plays are now essentially worthless.
That is exactly what we want when shorting a put option. The short put trader not only keeps all of the premium received but has no obligation to purchase the stock at the strike prices shorted.
In fact, it might have made sense last time to actually go long the call options in MSFT stock. This has a lot of risk, so I am reluctant to recommend it going forward.
It probably makes more sense to sell short its covered calls instead, just in case the stock has a reversal when the results are released. For example, the call option premiums for the option expiration period ending Aug. 11, at the $365 and $370 strike prices are attractive. They trade for $4.95 and $4.13, respectively.
MSFT Calls - Expiring Aug. 11 - Barchart - As of July 14
That means that the covered call player (i.e., buys 100 shares of MSFT and then enters an order to “Sell to Open” 1 call contract) makes 1.43% and 1.20%, respectively. For example, dividing $4.95 by today's price of $345.24 equals 1.43%.
This is because the trader who sells short the $365 strike price call, which is 5.7% above today's price, immediately receives the $4.95 premium (i.e., $495 per 100 shares for each call contract).
However, note that if MSFT stock rises over $365 or $370 per share on or before Aug. 11, the covered call trader will have to sell their shares at those strike prices.
To get around this, the trader can short out-of-the-money put options. For example, the Aug. 11 puts at the $330 strike price offer a similar premium of $4.78 per put contract. That provides the short put trader an immediate yield of 1.11% (i.e., $4.78/$430).
MSFT Puts - Expiring Aug. 11 - Barchart - As of July 14, 2023
This means that the trader who secures $43,000 in cash and/or margin with their brokerage firm (which might partially be available by already owning 100 shares of MSFT stock), can then enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at the $430 strike price. The account will immediately receive $478.00.
That means that if MSFT stock falls by 4.41% on or before the Aug. 11 expiration period, the short put trader has to use the secured cash/margin to buy 100 shares at $430. But, in return, they get to immediately keep the $478 already credited to their account.
That is why the short put trader makes a similar yield but with less “capture” risk, in terms of the shares already owned in MSFT stock.
This shows that traders can use the upside in MSFT stock to make money using put and call options. Depending on how well the company does with its upcoming results, MSFT stock could move either way.
But at least with short puts and calls the trader has a buffer in terms of the income immediately generated.
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Microsoft Stock Nears Record Highs After Bull Note
By: Schaeffers Investment Research | July 14, 2023
The shares of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) are on track for their fourth-straight win, up 1.6% to trade at $348.14. Today's pop -- a chip-shot from its June 16 record high of $351.47 -- comes after UBS upgraded the blue-chip tech giant to "buy" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $400 from $345.
The firm cited cloud stabilization as well as artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds, though uncertainty surrounding the tech giant's $69 billion acquisition of video game name Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is also drawing attention.
Year-to-date, Microsoft stock sports a 44.7% lead. The shares' 40-day moving average has stepped up as support in the past few months, a trendline that hasn't been breached on a closing basis since March 10.
So far today, 181,000 calls and 73,000 puts have been exchanged, volume that is double the amount typically seen at this point. Expiring at the end of the day, the weekly 7/14 350-strike and 352.50-strike calls are the most active, with new positions being opened at both.
This preference for calls isn't unusual, considering the past 10 weeks in the options pits. MSFT's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.90 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than all other readings from the past year.
Options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations, too, per Microsoft stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22%, which ranks in the 16th percentile of its annual range.
UBS upgraded MSFT to "buy" from "neutral"
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Microsoft’s $MSFT Revenue breakdown by segment
By: Savvy Trader | July 14, 2023
• Microsoft’s $MSFT Revenue breakdown by segment.
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Looking for them to close this deal by Monday! $350 as early as tomorrow or do you think it will be Monday???
$MSFT Bullish
Big win for Microsoft!
A U.S. federal court rejected the Federal Trade Commission's request that it order Microsoft (MSFT.O) to temporarily hold off on closing its $69 billion purchase of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O), according to a court filing.
Hell yeah! Bout damn time. Go Rand Paul
Microsoft Corp. $MSFT Tightening pattern now, 343 new level to clear now
By: Options Mike | July 9, 2023
• $MSFT Tightening pattern now, 343 new level to clear now.
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How’s your short position going?
$MSFT
Microsoft $6.5 Million Call • Strike: 355 • Expiration: 6/21/24
By: Cheddar Flow | July 6, 2023
• $MSFT $6.5M OTM Call
Strike: 355
Expiration: 6/21/24
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft $MSFT green in a sea of red today, holding an inside bar on the daily...
By: TrendSpider | July 6, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft green in a sea of red today, holding an inside bar on the daily...
IF we see a broader market bounce, this is one to watch.
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Microsoft should become the next $3 trillion company by early 2024 - Wedbush
By: Investing.com | July 5, 2023
Wedbush analysts reiterated an Outperform rating and a $375 per share price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as the tech giant continues to gain cloud market share.
The analysts strongly believe that Microsoft shares could receive a $40-50 per share boost on the back of the ChatGPT/AI monetization.
"We believe Nvidia's "jaw dropping guidance" heard around the world is a direct AI barometer for Redmond as our recent June quarter checks further confirm the monetization opportunity for MSFT is happening much sooner than the Street had anticipated in the field," the analysts said in a note.
"We estimate for every $100 of cloud Azure spend with MSFT the last few years there is an incremental $35-$40 of AI spend that now is on the table which changes the game and TAM for Nadella & Co. looking ahead."
As a result, the analysts project that Microsoft should join Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in becoming the next $3 trillion company. This could happen as soon as early next year.
“Our thesis remains that the cloud and underlying Office 365/Windows ecosystem is going to comprise a bigger and bigger piece of Redmond going forward and will ultimately spur growth and margins into FY23/FY24 despite this downturn. We also believe Redmond is just starting to hit its next gear of growth with ChatGPT and AI also adding a new layer of growth to the MSFT story over the coming years.”
Microsoft shares are down 0.6% in pre-market Wednesday.
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From a new eletter to which I’ve recently subscribed
Microsoft’s All-In-One AI
Key update:
Microsoft developed an AI model called CoDi that can process and generate multiple types of inputs (text, images, video, & audio) simultaneously.
To put it simply, with a prompt, an image, and an audio input, CoDi can generate a realistic video that connects them. (watch the demo)
CoDi is part of Microsoft's Project i-Code, which uses AI to enhance human-computer interaction.
Why we should care:
CoDi Use Cases:
Individuals with disabilities can more accessibly create content.
Students can use it to understand complex concepts more effectively as it pulls information from multiples sources.
Enhances user experiences in computers with interactive content.
If CoDi is available for the public, we can use it for interactive multimedia presentations and storytelling.
Read the full article ?
$MFST $NYFANG - I said it was stretching for the highs...
By: Sahara | July 3, 2023
• $MFST $NYFANG - I said it was stretching for the highs...
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT Seeing if it can hold over 340 for a move back to ATH's.
By: Options Mike | July 1, 2023
• $MSFT Seeing if it can hold over 340 for a move back to ATH's.
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Microsoft Corp. $MSFT Flow Today
By: Cheddar Flow | June 30, 2023
• $MSFT Flow Today
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Millions Worth of Big Tech Calls Hitting the Tape: $NVDA $MSFT $TSLA
By: Cheddar Flow | June 29, 2023
• Millions Worth of Big Tech Calls Hitting the Tape
$NVDA $MSFT $TSLA
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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Is Well Below Its Real Value - Making Short Put Plays Profitable
By: Barchart | June 27, 2023
Microsoft (MSFT) stock is still trading well below its real or true value, based on its powerful free cash flow. Today MSFT is at $331 or so on June 27, which is well below a target price of $379.54, which is over 15% higher. This is good for traders who short OTM puts as an income play and as a way to buy in automatically at a lower price.
In my June 9 Barchart article, “Microsoft Stock May Have Peaked, But It's Still On Track For Solid Growth,” I showed that for the year ending June 30, 2024, free cash flow (FCF) could rise to $84.9 billion. That FCF figure is derived by using a 36% FCF margin based on analysts' June 2024 fiscal year revenue expectations of $235.69 billion in revenue.
Using FCF To Set A Price Target
As a result, using a 33x multiple, MSFT stock would have a market capitalization of $2.8 trillion (i.e., $84.9b FCF x 33x). That is 14.8% over today's price. After adding another 0.74% due to share buybacks, its market capitalization could rise by 15.5% from yesterday's price of $328.61, or $379.54 per share.
In other words, based on expected FCF margins and revenue growth we can expect to see Microsoft's value per share rise 15.5% to $379.54 next year. Traders can use that price to short out-of-the-money put options.
That will both increase income from MSFT's low 0.83% dividend yield. It also provides a way to automatically buy in cheaper (if MSFT stock falls to the OTM strike price).
Shorting OTM Puts In MSFT Stock
For example, the July 21 put option chain shows that the $320 strike price put options trade for $3.05 per option. That works out to an attractive yield of almost 1.0% in just 24 days (i.e., ($3.05/$320)/100=0.95%). That means that if the trader can repeat this kind of trade each month for a year, the annualized return will be 11.4%, regardless of whether MSFT rises substantially to the target price.
MSFT Puts - Expiring July 21 - Barchart - As of June 27
Here is what this means from a practical standpoint. First, the trader secures $32,000 in cash and/or margin with their brokerage firm. Then they can enter an order online to “Sell to Open” one 1 put contract at the $320 strike price for July 21 expiration. The account will then immediately receive $305.00.
That is why the yield is considered 0.95% since $305/$32,000 is 0.95%. Assuming that MSFT stock does not fall 3.55% to $320 on or before the July 21 expiration date (and the trader does not buy back the short put position) the investor will have a clean 0.95% return. They will not be obligated to purchase the stock at $320 using the secured cash and/or margin.
Lowering Risk With Deeper OTM Short Puts
A more conservative trader may want to have more room for the stock to fall. For example, the $310 strike price is over $20 below today's price or 6.56% out-of-the-money. The premium is lower at $1.51 as well.
That represents an immediate yield of 0.49% or a little over half of the $320 strike price put trade. But at least there is significantly less risk that MSFT could fall to this strike price.
Moreover, the annualized return to the trader, if repeated each month for a year, is 5.88%. That is significantly higher than the stock's 0.86% dividend yield. So, in effect, without much risk that the stock could fall here, especially given the much higher price target we have shown above, the deep OTM short-put trader can gain a lot of extra income.
This also has an advantage over selling OTM covered calls, since there is no danger of the shares owned by the investor being sold in an exercise. The investor has already secured the money to purchase the stock, so in effect, it can be a way to automatically buy in MSFT stock at a lower price.
Granted, there could be an unrealized loss if the stock tanks. But I have shown that MSFT stock is worth at least 15%+ more than its price today, and that likelihood is low.
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BILL GATES FOUNDATION NOW WORTH BILLONS
Equities Analysts Issue Forecasts for Microsoft Co.'s FY2025 Earnings (MSFT)
By: MarketBeat | June 24, 2023
• Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) - Stock analysts at William Blair issued their FY2025 earnings per share estimates for shares of Microsoft in a research note issued on Wednesday, June 21st. William Blair analyst J. Ader forecasts that the software giant will earn $12.09 per share for the year. The consensus estimate for Microsoft's current full-year earnings is $9.65 per share...
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Microsoft $MSFT dangling its feet off the edge of a cliff, with a volume vacuum lingering below.
By: TrendSpider | June 25, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft dangling its feet off the edge of a cliff, with a volume vacuum lingering below.
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US manufacturing is clearly in rough shape and getting worse. SPG repeatedly referred to inventories and sharply lower (esp. for export) new orders. Without new sales, producers are working down backlogs & approaching layoff point
US manufacturing is clearly in rough shape and getting worse. SPG repeatedly referred to inventories and sharply lower (esp. for export) new orders. Without new sales, producers are working down backlogs & approaching layoff point.https://t.co/N8QAJyr4LE pic.twitter.com/qzuIznsgv1
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) June 24, 2023
Microsoft getting a bounce at trendzone support from the earnings gap up, big spot to watch heading into next week!
By: TrendSpider | June 23, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft getting a bounce at trendzone support from the earnings gap up, big spot to watch heading into next week!
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Microsoft $MSFT Call Sweepers At The Open
By: Cheddar Flow | June 22, 2023
• $MSFT Call Sweepers At The Open
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