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Stay very, very far away from penny stocks.
Don't even communicate with those who trade them.
I'm more of a downward looking guy, because I've seen nothing but red doing this, but you actually seem to know your stuff. I have LOTS of respect for all the data you are providing here. Thank you.
Sorry, you wont like this.
Mid-2017 resistance level at about 32.50 -- June-July 2017 triple top. I drew that dashed yellow line some time ago. I think that is where it ends up. Matches up with a substantial top that lasted a few months in late 2014. The value of 35 is a nice round number at the high end of that range set in 2014. As you can see, 32.50 was tested multiple times in the summer of 2017.
If I had cash and was interested in getting back into MU, I would start by selling November $35 Puts, and could likely do that numerous times -- eventually get assigned.
In your opinion, considering the fact that MU is fundamentally strong, where does this actually bottom? At this rate we might go back to $10...
Notice how quiet Berkshire is? Smart money is chipping away laughing right now. This is 98 and 08 all over again, just buy incrementally each leg down, sell some covers & wait a few years.
Rome wasn't built in a day, correct. It wasn't built in a life time either. I don't have a life time. Tick tock. Another day wasted on worthless world news.
Way it’s going to be until earnings or Micron gives an update on earnings.
If they forecast down........Good luck
yes..very sad!.....bought 200 around lunch....wait and see what happens.......$$$$$ MU $$$$$.....glta
yup, i see $30s. Sad, sad, sad, but reality.
I kept harping ...
that MU should use their $10B to diversify into making other types of chips so that it would not be a memory-only company. That would enable MU to get to higher PE ratios. If they did that, they could also sell chip systems as opposed to just chips. That creates more added value, and therefore more diversification and income.
But no, Micron thinks it is better to distribute some of their profits to shareholders over several quarters (another mistake) with the hope that would, I guess, help hold up the share price. Wrong! With the normal high volume of daily share trade, that slow-motion thing they decided to do, AKA buy back shares, is virtually impossible to detect.
So what do they end up with? Answer -- less cash on the books, no diversification, and unhappy investors.
Brutal, utterly brutal...
Strike 1:
I was definitely wrong about MU thought this would be trading at 70 dollars by now.
MU heading down to 20!
agreed, based on the fundamentals $70 should have happened months ago, It'll happen, just could be a couple of quarters from now that's all.
Sector rotation, the way it's been dropping anything is possible. It's a waiting game till the big boys come back in, for now they're off in pot stock land...
Don’t think it going near $20. If it did I would be all in definently trending down, but never bought for get rich quick. Disappointed with the company though. PR’s seem very far a few between these days. Hard to keep investors when the stock is trending down, and communication is light.
Just my opinion
The semi stocks remind me of the OTC. Just some experienced wealthy traders pumping up the share price and dump it to people with no discipline chasing the share price. I don't know why these semis get so much attention. I was definitely wrong about MU thought this would be trading at 70 dollars by now. These semis aren't good stocks to be in. Only buying the semis at the end of a recession when prices are cheap. MU heading down to 20!
fair enough- blue
You're right, theres no stopping the big players, the big boys wants to run this down & down it will go... On its way back to $20s
if it breaks $40....I`ll add another chunk.
$$$$$$$$$ MU $$$$$$$$$...patience is required....glta
IMHO, not a good enough reason.*
If I am going to be invested in a stock, I want to be in a stock that is doing well now, not one that might be doing well sometime farther down the road.
If I have to wait for that lagger to do well later, then to get back on track, that lagger is going to have some catching up to do first.
That process of catching up wastes more time and that is an inefficient (less profitable) use of time. In addition, to truly catch up, that lagger has lost time so it has to work much harder just to catch up, and that is not likely to happen because it wont run faster than the others -- the others set the pace that the lagger will run.
* Today, there is not even one moving average that MU is trading above. Every average from 3 to 320 is resistance to MU. That baby has no mamma.
I can't disagree with anything you just said...But I do see MU being at $100 either it be in 2019 or 2020.
HMONNY, I mostly agree with you.
I don't know if a 100-fold number is a good choice but I know there will be huge growth in the need for memory.
The problem is that there is a huge stigma (a mark of disgrace) attached to memory-only companies which developed over a period of many years as those companies went through seemingly endless memory demand and pricing cycles; and therefore profit/loss cycles.
Granted it will be very different this time for MU as they will almost certainly remain very profitable during the coming flat or low spots in the cycles (whereas they lost money during prior dips in the memory cycles).
But most investors don't understand any of that, so they will continue to act like prehistoric apes and follow their gut feelings and dump shares when it feels like the memory market is slowing.
You cannot fight that. You have to accept that. When you choose to invest with a lot of apes, you have to follow their rules because they set the price. Trade the chart, not your heart.
"The music has stopped played for MU stock, and that means it is time to stay away. Eventually, the music will come back. But, until it does, Micron stock isn’t a buy.
https://investorplace.com/2018/10/micron-stock-is-running-out-of-gas/
Do you yourself believe that it is still as cyclical? I find it hard to believe with only 3 real players in the sector that they would allow for prices to plummet that much. Add to the fact that we're now heading into a decade which will see demand for memory increase 100 fold. Its no longer 1999 or 2009, we live in a age where high tech is in every aspect of our lives. Smart toasters will need memory...JMO
The problem is ...
MU is a semiconductor memory stock (and nothing more) and that has the stigma of being a cyclical business, so its stock price goes through wild gyrations as investors try to account for the memory cycles.
Historically, during those memory cycles, memory companies would swing between periods of large profits and periods of large losses as the memory companies competed with each other within that cyclical market.
Most people who invest in memory companies are hesitant to start believing that it is going to be different now or in the future.
I have never called a "perfect trade" for MU. If I had I would have sold all my shares when MU was trading over $60. I didn't. I sold it at just below $44 in early September.
MU might start going flat here as there is plenty of support at this level during the 3+ month period of late 2017 and early 2018.
But MU has stated that they expect the next quarter to also be flat to down slightly; and they'll spend more on expansion so that will affect earnings a small amount; so after another so-so earnings report, MU could conceivably trade down to $30 during the first part of 2019. At that point I'll consider going back into MU.
Investing rule #1: the trend continues until it doesn't.
MU is in a downward trending channel.
Investing rule #2: don't forget Rule #1.
Why do you always like to slip in the condensing jabs? I'm a dreamer now? When people were calling for AMD to be at $30+ while it was trading at $16, were they dreamers? you're always full of excuses, always calling the "perfect trade" right? So when it does hit $80 then what?
Don't be a dreamer.
The multi-month trek MU has taken down that declining fork IS the market sentiment for that stock.
Trends continue until they don't. At this point there is no reason to construct even a horizontal trading channel for MU, and certainly no reason to construct a rising channel.
and if it turns around then what? You're probably right that the downtrend may continue, but don't under estimate market sentiment which charts don't tell. MU can double to $80 just as quickly as it dropped from $60-$40.
Down fork has held since June.
No sign of needing modification on the horizon.
MU continues to go down.
Have you noticed that the upper tine of the fork is running parallel and below MU's SMA(50)?
That is four months of trending down. That is not going to change anytime soon.
According to Nasdaq,
THORSEN STEVEN L. JR made the last insider sale of 40,000 shares on 07/20/2018 and the last price was $55.0887.
I'd say he did pretty well. Anybody else here beat that?
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mu/insider-trades
Buybacks ...
are done by the company for the company.
Insider trades are done by employees for personal benefit.
Exactly! Doesn't make sense...
Why would they sell at 42 when MU is buying back?
Lots of gyrations in the pps, and we have a drink! and wait for opening bell!! JMO
Hmmm, Looks like more selling than buying back from the Form 4's just filed.
What happnes after hours
So while all tech stocks were crashing last week, MU had an average week when the market was panicked and selling! MU didn't sell off????? Interesting!! I like the $50.00 mark soooooon! Ok $46. for this month! JMO I'm counting on them breaking thru all the forks in your chart! I'm counting on MU bringing a cannon to a fork fight soon!! Won't it be great??? JMO
I think this week might be a great week to bend that fork in the chart! JMO Did you happen to seeeeee the pps in nvda today also? $$$$$ yep! thats right$$$$. JMO but who would have guessed the price action today in stocks? Yep nobody!! Go MU!!!
Micron's Buy-back rate,
$10 Billion.
Just read that it is being spent at a rate of $1.5B per quarter. That is not a very high rate considering the stock trades about 2-Billion shares per quarter. Divide the buy-back dollars per quarter by the share volume per quarter, and you get 75 Cents per share per quarter. That's 25-Cents per share per month. You can make a lot more than that by simply selling Calls against your shares.
At that rate per quarter it takes 7 quarters to spend that $10 Billion. That does not impress. Would be better to spend that money to buy other chip companies and diversify product lineup. Gets rid of being a memory-only company, and that would give it a higher PE ratio.
... and has an upcoming regular $1.5 billion stock purchase program each quarter ...
It's all relative ...
MU is up today but it is not performing as strongly as the Semiconductor Index it is in, SMH. In fact MU is one of the top-10 holdings in SMH at 4.74%.
MU is up 1.44% today while SMH is up 2.69%.
Conclusion: One would be better off investing in SMH than investing in MU. You would be making more money today and you would be more diversified (AKA lower risk).
IMHO, MU could trade below Resistance of $45.50 for the rest of the year. In fact, MU is currently trading below its SMA(20) and all longer averages. A worst case scenario would be that MU follows that blue fork lower -- it's already been doing that for nearly four months -- and the top tine of that fork is currently at $46.
We won't, It'll rotate back, supports looking strong so far. $50 will happen instantly & everyone will forget about these dark times hahahah
Maybe? LOL JMO
Nope, I'm needing a defibrillator with my CGC calls and shares! Yikes!! oh! Yipppeeeee!! JMO
Ok! I have sworn off anymore MU shares, calls! I'm afraid one day I will want a tatoo with the two letters MU on my as#! LOLOLOL I may need to find a place that is for SHA!!! Yep!( Share Hog Anonymous!!) I have to admit if MU Far@s I'll make some serious $$$. If we stay with this pps through Jan. then I may start drinking heavily!! For now all I am doing is watching! Nothing more! JMO
great strategy...
My bet is we begin a new rally right after the midterm elections. MU & other tech stocks has shown it can double in a matter of weeks. Don't sleep on those cheap $60-$70 calls for Jan'19.
HAHAHA RIGHT! I remember him loving MU at $60 & hating AMD at $16, how does this dude have a job?
With the huge drop in the last few days in the market and MU barely budge from it's recent low, and went higher! I'm thinking that just maybe we get a nice move by the end of the year higher? JMO
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