Micron Technology (MU)

[JLS]

What the charts say:

Charts are always correct. They are what they are.

One can always argue what the chart should do,
but at the end of the day, you are stuck with having to trade the chart.

Charts create the P/E. They do not respond to it.

[mdb1]

like someone said: cannabis (pot) stock company losing money, but shares 3X UP; Micron making tons of profit/money but stock keeps going down with P/E in 4s. What to the charts say about that?

[JLS]

MU Quarter-to-quarter EPS growth

Or is it going to be Q-to-Q EPS shrink?

Or is it going to be Q-to-Q EPS flat because of share buyback?

Going into next quarter, EPS estimates are lower than earnings just reported. EPS for the following quarter are also lower. Those numbers will be (and probably have been) adjusted as the number of shares available to the market shrink, so that's one way for PE to go higher.

But everybody knows that. But if everybody knows that, will they still be sometimes willing to support a PE of 5, or will they decide that a PE of 4.5 is more realistic for next quarter, and what about the quarter after that? All they know for sure is that estimates for next quarter, on a per share basis, are now lower than they were for this last quarter; and two quarters out, estimated earning per share are even lower.

Just trying to see if price will rise above resistance at $45.50. And if it does trade above, will it continue to decline within the fork. Just have to wait and see.

[trueblue]

5% shorts, EPS growth of 58+%, Revenue growth of 27+% !! and a buy back of 10 billion dollars worth of stock!! This pps could get real interesting in the next several months! if not weeks! JMO I loaded up on Jan 46 calls for a song and dance last Friday! and a few other calls! We shall see! What the heck I think I grew a curly tail on this one!! LOLO JMO

[Stocker1]

The market underestimates memory now. Still looking at PC’s. NAND is just getting started as well.

[dirtydozen911]

glad I added 1500 more about 10 days ago.....we`re not a one trick pony!.....should break thru $50 eow...or early next week....congrats to those who held, when we had that dark cloud over us.......$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ MICRON $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[mdb1]

I think its going to $50 in the next few weeks! I also hope it will.

[mdb1]

Hey Needham down grades to $80 for MU. Still better than $44.

[Zani]

Incredible run. See some more short term pain, but looking to buy in when it corrects some more. Good fundamentals and great company.

[trueblue]

I need to add a few zeroes to the $$ the company is going to spend to buy shares back. not $10,000,000. It is actually $10,000,000,000. LOLOL In my opinion that should move the pps higher. JMO

[longhaul4]

Yep. I agree. I doubled down on Friday long term 12 mo or longer hold for me

[HMONNY]

All is see is the consensus all points to hold/buys with the worst price targets still above current prices.

[HMONNY]

Expired yesterday, sold 15 contracts at 8.50 bought back at alittle over 6. It was a nice gain for the the 2 days. Just felt MU always sells off after the earnings & the early week run up only confirmed it.

[trueblue]

Oh Crap! I forgot to mention there is $10,000,000. reasons to buy MU!!! That should keep the pps higher!! JMO and a PE of 4!! Serious??? LOLOL Loving my calls and shares!! JMO

[trueblue]

Loaded the boat up and over the sides!! I have more calls, more shares then????? Well it's a bunch! Listened to the company today on the stock and I think the negative nelly's have way over did themselves. Looking forward to where the pps is in Jan? Have a few short term calls also for peanuts! Lets see where we go! JMO

[value1008]

Morgan Stanley came in with a PT revision down to $48; CITI has a $50 PT. Meanwhile, last night Credit Suisse came in with a PT of $90, and Stifel Nicolas now as of this a.m. has a $103 PT (down from $108).

Obviously a massive war going on among analysts over a bearish or bullish 2019 for this co.

I'm bullish. I don't think analysts are giving nearly enough weight to the MASSIVE debt reduction co. achieved in their FY2018 and will also likely achieve in FY2019 (already begun on Sept. 1). They're already net-debt POSITIVE by $2 bn.

This de-risks the co. to a very safe level.
Surely that merits a forward P/E of at least 8-10, not 4.

[trueblue]

Just my opinion but this is where I'm adding many more shares, calls, whatever!! I'm locked and loaded for the run higher over the next few months. JMO

[mdb1]

Can't seem to hold $45s. This is crazy. That's the stock market, irrational UP or DOWN.

[JLS]

At $38?

That's almost like selling the stock. What expiration?

I never thought about doing that kind of a massive step, but it might work out pretty well. Who knows, given its current down channel, MU might just get there in the next 30-45 days. Then it might make sense to enter a massive purchase of Calls that touch the high end of the channel.

Respect the trend:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=143673363

[realfast95]

Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) had its target price dropped by stock analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from $108.00 to $103.00 in a research report issued on Friday

my bff Cassidy

[Regiment]

Not sure that's a good thing if they have as the price keeps dropping, but makes sense this low. I still think this touches 30s before it heads north again.

[Stocker1]

Didn’t know that they were already buying back shares

“The company plans to continue buying back shares with a possibility of accelerating the ongoing buyback program. The company expects to spend at least $1.50 billion on buybacks during the first quarter.”

[puffadder]

May be green by 10 am

[scwam]

I think that is the sole reason. If you hear the overall picture that they are road mapping for the next two years, it seems that 2020 will see major growth especially given how diversified they are and strategically placed in all the markets which are not just limited to cloud, automobile, data centers, etc.

[lumpina]

I agree, if one has patience.

I read (Alpha?) that the CEO (in the conf. call) alluded to the fact that the tariffs would affect negatively on MU's profits in the upcoming year. Perhaps that's why the sell-off happened after hours yesterday.

Just reporting the news

[realfast95]

Credit Suisse - Outperform $90 target

[Windsortrader519]

If this is down due to tarrifs , then it's a great buying opportunity.

Even with lower margins this stock is stupid cheap

[scwam]

The tariffs seemed to be a temporary slowdown in the first few quarters of 2019 based on what I heard.

[lumpina]

Buzzwords:

From "The Graduate": To Benjamin: Plastics, Plastics

Today: Tariffs, tariffs.

JMHO

[scwam]

I just listened to the Q&A session and there was nothing that I could hear that gave a negative tone. Some about capacity challenges in moving to newer 96-layer were mentioned along with CapEx being higher in 2019 vs competitors. The overall tone for the Q&A session was fairly upbeat, confident, well-planned, and positive. I'm holding this long-term despite this price drop nonsense. Been a customer of Micron for 10 years and wouldn't look elsewhere for the line of products they offer.

[puffadder]

Price targets becoming more and more worthless

[mdb1]

When MU was making $8 - $9/share/year, MU was in upper $50s to low $60s. Now it is making $11 to $12/share/year and it can barely hit $45s. Makes on sense.

[realfast95]

well at least we don't have to wait for the Morgan Stanley shoe to drop


$MU PT Lowered to $48 at Morgan Stanley

[puffadder]

Below $35? yeah ok

[SubPenny0001]

Micron Slumps After Issuing Light Guidance

It may get very ugly this morning... below 35 would be my guess!

The memory giant beat estimates, but issued a light quarterly outlook that was blamed on CPU shortages, inventory adjustments and China tariffs.

Micron Blames its Guidance on CPU Shortages, Inventories and Tariffs
On the call, management indicated that Intel (INTC - Get Report) PC CPU shortages will impact its November quarter PC DRAM sales, and that a few customers are carrying out a "limited inventory adjustment." The company also noted that the Trump Administration plans to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports (it goes into effect on Sep. 24) will impact its gross margin a bit.

Naturally, the CPU shortage is expected to be a short-term event, although CEO Sanjay Mehrotra did say it could last beyond the November quarter. CFO Dave Zinser suggested the inventory adjustment -- possibly the result of customers stockpiling DRAM inventory while supplies were very tight -- will last "a couple of quarters." The tariffs of course will last until Washington and Beijing hammer out a trade deal.

[mdb1]

Hope you are right. Go $48s tomorrow and go $50s next week
If INTEL can't make enough CPUs, there is always AMD with their new batch of CPUs.

[value1008]

This should prop up the price Friday morning and into next week:
------------------------------

Credit Suisse - Research Analysts John W. Pitzer Charles Kazarian
(20-Sep-18) Target price (US$) Target price is for 12 months.

OUTPERFORM
$90.00


One-offs More than Cycle
Bottom Line. MU reported F4Q EPS of $3.53 WELL ABOVE CS/Street of $3.35/3.30, but guided F1Q EPS of $2.95 at the midpoint BELOW CS/Street of $3.15/$3.10.

While the 15 cent shortfall to Street is well within the range of normal management conservatism (EPS upside of 28 cents on average in F4Q/F3Q), the 58 cent decline q/q is a bit more daunting and will increase cyclical concerns.

Note, of the 58 cent q/q decline, 31 cents are from higher taxes (well known) and we estimate one-offs (tariffs, CPU shortages) likely contribute ~10 cents to the shortfall, leaving ~17 cents to more cyclical factors (customer inventory, pricing) and/or conservatism [i.e., overly conservative guidance from mgmt].

While risks include industry supply/demand, we adjust FY19 EPS (ex-SBC) to $11.09 from $11.24 vs. Street of $11.30, but maintain [Calendar Year] CY19 EPS of $10.50 vs. Street of $10.74.

Note – MU committed to spend at least $1.5bn in programmatic buybacks in F1Q, with an additional amount allocated for opportunistic purchases.

We continue to see MU as the “good fight” and reiterate our Outperform rating as investors under- appreciate the growing strategic importance of memory along with MU specific drivers that provide ~$2.00 of cyclical cushion to EPS.

[Stocker1]

All being said, I am dissapointed Micron not declaring a dividend. 61% GP??? Share the wealth already

[Stocker1]

Exactly, remember telling my uncle he was crazy buying Apple at 25 a share, sigh. He is multi millionaire living on dividends, I am still working. Lesson learned. Got to look 5 years out. One benefit of age.

Outside an catastrophic explosion/implosion on technology, memory will be king. Might take 10 years but again...... lesson learned.

Micron investing in US production, so even if the tariffs keep up, who cares? Way too much demand.

Analyst say downturn, shows the age of many of these analyst that can’t keep up with the times, living in 1999.


GLTY

[HMONNY]

Yup, as an investor, I believe based on financial health & demand in the next decade that MU will be trading much more then recent highs. It may take a quarter or 8 that’s all lol

[puffadder]

All these CEOs sandbag forecasts so they can overdeliver ....

Smart on their end but I can’t believe how Wall St runs with it over and over

[Stocker1]

To your point, “I want what’s mine now!” (Stomps Feet, Holds Breath)

Don’t want to have to get up to go to work, don’t want to be told what to do, I just want. I deserve it, the world owes me. I don’t know what “It” is but I want it.

Brings back memories of Willie Wonka, “I want a Oompa Loompa of my own Daddy” and I want it now!



But seriously,, it’s 1999 all over again, valuations are crazy, the internet all over again. 99% of these companies with the hype and valuations will be gone in 3 years. The prudent will prevail. Some will get rich, but the masses will work forever.

[mdb1]

Just maybe tomorrow MU will go back to $48s again sometime during the day.
This is crazy: $3/Q/share * 4 Qs = $12/year/share profit. Definitely worth $48/share.
But who knows, maybe it goes to $30s tomorrow.

[HMONNY]

The market is all speculative, no one wants to sit on high dividends and safe companies. We live in a society where everyone wants to get rich quickly with little work. I

[HMONNY]

Took your word for it and sold some covered calls at $38, loving my decision now every bit!

[Stocker1]

Pot stock doing 40 million and posting losses goes to $300. Tech company doing $30 Billion at 61% profit can’t hold $45 bucks. Looks like tech is dead

[Stocker1]

Can’t even get a 4x pe. What is wrong with this market?

[puffadder]

Forecasts are manipulation - SEC needs to crack down

[Nivea67515]

"Micron stock swings to a loss after disappointing earnings forecast"


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/micron-stock-gains-as-earnings-deflect-doubts-about-memory-market-2018-09-20?mod=hp_minor_pos19

[puffadder]

MU is now a value stock lol