Micron Technology (MU)

[Artillery0842]

It's been over.....

[Artillery0842]

Yes...I feel for everyone taking this hit...the economy and GDP are good but everyone is freaking out. The treasury secretary is not helping either with these rate hikes. The yield curve is not too awful between 1 and 10 but 3 and 5 are off. It's all emotional.

[Nivea67515]

Bull market has come to an end. Today said a lot. There will be a time to own MU but the time is not now.

[JLS]

You aren't alone in that misery. EOM

[JLS]

MU has a problem.

MU only has one product: all they sell is various grades of SS memory and memory systems, AKA commodities. Their only leverage advantage is any lead they can obtain in the technology. Patents on their technologies helps because they can get licensing fees.

Gravel quarries have some of the same problems: all they sell is various grades of rock, gravel, and sand (rock-based commodities). Their only advantage is to have customers near their quarries. There is nothing they can patent, and their trucks are lucky to get 7_mpg.

Difference between AMD and MU:

AMD has a much broader product range than MU and sells a variety of microprocessors and gaming chips and related systems and software. In fact, AMD may even purchase some of MU's memory chips and modules and place them on some of AMD's system boards.

So ... that's why I have written that MU would be much better off NOT buying back their own stock; and, instead, use that money to purchase another chip company for the purpose of broadening their product base. In other words, diversify to expand customer base; and gain additional efficiency by eliminating duplicate functions of the two separate businesses. Then MU would not suffer from the stigma and cyclicality of being a memory-only company.

[Artillery0842]

I believe you know what you are doing and saying. I'm very sceptical just watching it continue to drop. I know the entire index is following suit but its frustrating.

[JLS]

Nope, not kidding.

MU had lots of reasons to drop much further yesterday, but it didn't. Considering its trend over the last several months, and poor guidance for the next two quarters, and the large drop in the semi index yesterday, and the drop in the whole market yesterday, MU barely budged. For MU, that was a very good day.

[HMONNY]

Whats your reasoning that AM*D is a better trade now then MU?

[Artillery0842]

With all the fancy numbers....you're kidding! Right?

[JLS]

I have to admit ...

This was actually a very good day for MU stock.

The market sucks and MU very nearly ended green for the day.

But, as of the last time I checked, MU is no longer one of the top-10 holdings in SMH.

MU closed down 0.41% for the day while $SOX closed down 0.86% and $SPX was down 1.58%
.

[Artillery0842]

Can't say it enough....fing GARBAGE. THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET. wussies......

[Artillery0842]

Another disappointment.....POS

[Artillery0842]

Looks RED to me today.. Absolute garbage. Simple formula....down garbage, up not garbage. Don't make it complicated.

[Snakes531]

Will be green today, stocks down 50% from its highs which has already baked the bad news in..Shorts will need to cover!

[Artillery0842]

There goes one support line.....NEXT?

[Stocker1]

Never been a stock price company in my opinion. Just does what it does, hence no dividend. Does what it does.


Again, just my humble opinion.

[Artillery0842]

Thought....POS.

[Stocker1]

Down to $31.45 after hours and sinking

[realfast95]

Cuts DRAM growth from 20% to 15%

[HMONNY]

under $30 soon?

[Hunterdog]

Up 3% on higher than average volume. Hmmmmmm. And all before earnings. AND................trading at a P/E less than 3.

[JLS]

Use options instead.

Limits your risk. Try this Jan 18 Call spread ...

Buy Jan 18 $36 Calls for $1.77. Sell Jan 18 $39 Calls for $0.75. And you have to do that today. Your cost is $1.02 to potentially bring in $3 which is a good ratio and it also has a month to work and you have the January effect on your side. The triangle pattern also shows MU is making a low spread over two months, and there is a possible January effect in your favor and MU options are not now trading at a premium relative to its current volatility (given that earnings is coming up).

Prices changed by a few pennies while writing this, but you get the idea. Also, always look for that 3:1 ratio at a minimum -- improves your odds.

[HMONNY]

I believe most of the negatives are priced in, even if it drops, it won't drop much more. Bottom is close.

[Hunterdog]

I'm really tempted to pull the trigger and average down here before earnings. My personal conviction is that they will meet or beat expectations but I fear the forward outlook may be revised downward. Any thoughts?

[Artillery0842]

Selllllllll....everyone selllllllll.

[Artillery0842]

Waaaaaaaaaa....China has bad news on output. Waaaaaaa....everyone sellllllll. Waaaaaaaa

[Artillery0842]

Straight bull chit

[ITMS]

Expect Micron $MU To Flush One More Time Before Major Buy Level

Shares of Micron (MU) will likely see one more major flush before a significant bottom is in place. The semiconductor player is getting attractive on valuation but still needs the $32.75 level tagged before the top traders will initiate a buy based on technical analysis. This will likely happen in late December or early January 2019. This level represents multi-factor support pivots and has a high success rate, reaching north of 80%. Expect a bounce as high as $40 from that level.






Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

[mdb1]

The good old days of MU being $60s. Where have all the good times gone?

[HMONNY]

Sooner people accept that we are in a bear market, the sooner they'll figure out the right trading strategy to still profit. 1 step forward 2 steps backwards is and will be the foreseeable trend.

[trueblue]

I also have a few shares of #$%@%$@$! my flipping $46.00 Jan. calls look as ugly as the pps! Not much a person can do now. JMO

[Artillery0842]

Fu$#@%$ piece of SH@T

[Artillery0842]

Yet another wasted fu#@&^% day! Tick tock!

[NYCPuglet]

Big bounce Monday.


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — The United States and China reached a 90-day ceasefire in a trade dispute that has rattled financial markets and threatened world economic growth. The breakthrough came after a dinner meeting Saturday between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires.

Trump agreed to hold off on plans to raise tariffs Jan. 1 on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The Chinese agreed to buy a “not yet agreed upon, but very substantial amount of agricultural, energy, industrial” and other products from the United States to reduce America’s huge trade deficit with China, the White House said.

[JLS]

Buyback effect?

Hard to say. Below, in italics, is what an analyst wrote. I underlined something at the end. That effect may be what has pushed MU share price even lower in spite of the fact that the buyback has started.

If Micron buys back shares as soon as possible at a purchase price between $40 and $50, it will increase the share price by 3% to 5%.

If the company buys back stock later into fiscal 2019, the price impact is less than 2% at best, subject to a possible 3% dilution from convertible bonds' conversion.

For a later buyback, MU will likely face a higher purchase price, a lower-than-expected free cash flow to use, and a potential convertible bond dilution.

To Micron shareholders, the buyback prices are always more important than the buyback timing.

The reluctance to make a timely pre-announcement may be perceived by the market as management expecting the stock to drop further. By itself, such expectations may push the stock price lower.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205345-micron-buy-back-stock-soon-possible

So here's my input, which is free, and probably worth what you paid for it -- which is nothing:

The buyback started in September, so there is at least two-months of buyback completed. What has happened to MU's share price during that period?

[HMONNY]

Difference from last month is, every time MU looks to drop 3-4%, someone runs it right back up. Been happening all week, really thought we’d close in the 36s today. Is it the buybacks?

[JLS]

I think I would like that, too.

But since I would want to keep and trade all my AMD shares, I think the MU trade to take would be a huge MU January 2020 Call Spread Leap, but only take that trade after a confirmed MU bottom along with a confirmed $SPX bottom.

And none of that exists yet.

[HMONNY]

Actually hope it does hit the low 30s based on your charts...

[JLS]

Attitude adjustment time.

Sorry, but MU is still down today. I have no estimate of when it could trade above its upper fork tine. Currently it looks overpriced and is likely to go further down in the coming days and perhaps weeks.

Even SMH, which tracks the semiconductor index, is down today but by a small amount, 0.5%. But part of that is because it holds INTC (its largest holding) and NVDA (its third largest holding), and those are both down today.

Even MU is one of SMH's top 10 holdings, but being #9 it is merely two steps away from that distinction. A month from now, MU may no longer be a top-10 holding within SMH.

But, AMD is still a little bit green today. It might not still be that way at EOD, but I've sold Calls against it that expire tomorrow so I'm fine with that. My only dilemma with AMD is how close do I price the Calls I'm going to sell next week. Those are the kinds of problems that are nice to have.

Meanwhile MU is in decline as I write this, and it hasn't traded above its upper fork tine since early September. And when it did trade above that upper tine, that was only for a few days. Essentially, MU has been in a constant decline since late May and that fork can describe that decline during that whole time.

[HMONNY]

Somebody is buying it back up this week every time it looks like a $2 drop is about to happen. Holding surprisingly strong

[JLS]

Because MU has topped its fork?,

and has some yellow support lines to test ...

[trueblue]

I'm liking the MU pps per share move higher! Now if we can get just........ another $10.00 a share I'll feel better!! LOLOLOL JMO

[HMONNY]

Why do i have this feeling everything will come crashing back down next week?

[trueblue]

Positive news is Citron is buying NVDA!! Good enough for me to sleep better!! JMO

[Carioca]

NLST
come!

[Stocker1]

Well out of NVD#, AM#, and Micron, Micron down the least percentage from highs. For what it’s worth......

[trueblue]

Now where and the heck did the company that said they were buying back $10,000,000,000. worth of shares go???? To me I don't see the company moving the stock higher? JMO

[Emptyhead]

NVDA looks like she could easily move lower before moving substantially higher in the SMH group . Hard to say exactly where Equities move now.

[trueblue]

Nice job! Just hanging onto my MU shares and not much I can do with Jan. $46. calls at this point, still have some time left on them. I rode my NVDA down the hole on Friday! I had cut back on the number of shares I own, but dang! it still left a huge mark!! Picked up some NVDA March calls, I believe they are cheap but we'll see! Maybe I'll just buy a boat load of weed stock! LOLOL JMO

[JLS]

$SOX, the semiconductor index.

It also closed down on Friday.

Last time I checked, all stocks often do that.

So naturally, if $SOX goes down, so must most semiconductor stocks.

I think that's how it works.

Didn't bother me that much -- I sold last week's Calls against my AMD shares so that pumped up my cash balance by about $5k.

I'm aiming to repeat that process in the next several trading days.