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Gold (1139.90) Rises in New York
on Outlook for Dollar, Interest Rates
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in New York to the highest price in almost three weeks on speculation that the dollar will slip, boosting the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset.
The dollar erased earlier gains against a basket of six major currencies after reports signaled the U.S. economic recovery may be slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs low for an extended period. Gold jumped 24 percent in 2009 as U.S. rates near zero percent sent the dollar down 2.4 percent against the euro.
“We’ve seen the data push the dollar down and gold jump,” said Tom Schweer, a senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. “With the Fed forced to keep rates low, the dollar will start to decline and that should allow gold to rally.”
Gold futures for February delivery climbed $17.80, or 1.6 percent, to $1,136.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Earlier, the most-active contract reached $1,138.40, the highest price since Dec. 17.
In London, gold for immediate delivery rose $18.50, or 1.7 percent, to $1,136.50 an ounce as of 7 p.m. local time.
The dollar, up as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of six major currencies earlier, erased the gain after the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. service industries expanded less than forecast in December. A separate report showed employers cut more jobs than estimated last month.
U.S. companies cut an estimated 84,000 jobs in December, the fewest since March 2008, Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s ADP Employer Services unit said. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 75,000, the median of 31 estimates.
“The ADP numbers could signal a weaker dollar move later in the week,” said Michael Guido, the director of hedge-fund sales at Macquarie Capital USA Inc. in New York.
Silver futures for March delivery rose 37.5 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $18.175 an ounce in New York. The metal gained 49 percent last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apX7QZDPNiLg
Copper ‘Breaking Higher,’ $7,760 ‘In Play’: Technical Analysis
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, which more than doubled last year, is “breaking higher” after passing through a so-called Fibonacci retracement level, according to technical analysis by Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc.
Copper’s rise above $7,495 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange yesterday was a 76.4 percent retracement level, and that means $7,760 a ton is “in play now,” Smith wrote in a report. The $7,760 price is the low the metal reached in June 2008, one month before reaching a record $8,940 a ton.
“The break above the previous high suggests we have more room to move upside from here,” London-based Smith said today by phone.
Copper had its best year in at least two decades in 2009 as demand in China, the world’s largest buyer, climbed to a record. Prices have advanced another 1 percent this year after workers went on strike in Chile, the world’s largest copper producing nation.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. The $7,495 price was a 76.4 percent retracement of the range between the high of $8,940 in July 2008 and the four-year low of $2,817.25 in December of that year.
Support, or clusters of buying, is at $6,950 a ton for the futures traded on the London Metal Exchange, Smith said. Smith is the most accurate forecaster in the weekly Bloomberg copper survey.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqEmpfIQAldY
1117.20 Gold May Continue largest Rally in Two Months as Dollar Declines
By Kim Kyoungwha
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in Asia, may extend its biggest rally in two months as the dollar declines, boosting demand for the precious metal.
The U.S. currency may weaken against a basket of six counterparts after Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke said “moderate” economic growth is likely to warrant low interest rates for an “extended period.” Gold rallied 24 percent in 2009 as investors hedged against a declining dollar.
“The defining agent of this year’s action will once again be the path that the U.S. dollar eventually takes,” Jon Nadler, senior analyst with Kitco Metals Inc., wrote in a report.
Gold for immediate delivery, which touched a record $1,226.56 an ounce on Dec. 3, was little changed at $1,121.10 an ounce at 10:23 a.m. in Singapore. The metal gained 2.2 percent yesterday, the biggest advance since Nov. 3, as the dollar fell.
Rising optimism that global economic growth will gain momentum in 2010 is pushing up stock and commodity markets, reviving demand for alternative investments at the expense of the dollar. The Dollar index, a six-currency gauge of its value, declined for a third day, falling as much as 0.1 percent.
U.S. manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than three years, capping a late-2009 global factory rebound that helped pull the world out of the worst slump since the 1930s. That followed a report that Chinese manufacturing increased the most in five years last month.
“Net long positions of speculative financial investors on the gold market are still very high,” Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report, referring to bets prices may gain. “Demand for jewelry appears to be picking up already at the slightly lower prices.”
February-delivery gold in New York rose 0.3 percent to $1,121.60. Among other metals, spot platinum lost 0.4 percent to $1,519 an ounce, silver added 0.1 percent to $17.5925 an ounce and palladium climbed 0.2 percent to $422 an ounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6gQAD9zShyM
Gold $1123.00 http://www.magyver.com/metals.htm
May Extend Biggest Rally in Two Months as Dollar Declines
By Kim Kyoungwha
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in Asia, may extend its biggest rally in two months as the dollar declines, boosting demand for the precious metal.
The U.S. currency may weaken against a basket of six counterparts after Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke said “moderate” economic growth is likely to warrant low interest rates for an “extended period.” Gold rallied 24 percent in 2009 as investors hedged against a declining dollar.
“The defining agent of this year’s action will once again be the path that the U.S. dollar eventually takes,” Jon Nadler, senior analyst with Kitco Metals Inc., wrote in a report.
Gold for immediate delivery, which touched a record $1,226.56 an ounce on Dec. 3, was little changed at $1,121.10 an ounce at 10:23 a.m. in Singapore. The metal gained 2.2 percent yesterday, the biggest advance since Nov. 3, as the dollar fell.
Rising optimism that global economic growth will gain momentum in 2010 is pushing up stock and commodity markets, reviving demand for alternative investments at the expense of the dollar. The Dollar index, a six-currency gauge of its value, declined for a third day, falling as much as 0.1 percent.
U.S. manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than three years, capping a late-2009 global factory rebound that helped pull the world out of the worst slump since the 1930s. That followed a report that Chinese manufacturing increased the most in five years last month.
“Net long positions of speculative financial investors on the gold market are still very high,” Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report, referring to bets prices may gain. “Demand for jewelry appears to be picking up already at the slightly lower prices.”
February-delivery gold in New York rose 0.3 percent to $1,121.60. Among other metals, spot platinum lost 0.4 percent to $1,519 an ounce, silver added 0.1 percent to $17.5925 an ounce and palladium climbed 0.2 percent to $422 an ounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6gQAD9zShyM
Copper Rises to 16-Month High
on Chile Strike, Supply Concerns
By Millie Munshi and Anna Stablum
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to the highest price in almost 16 months on concern that a miners’ strike may disrupt output in Chile, the world’s biggest producer.
Workers at state-owed Codelco’s Chuquicamata copper mine, the world’s second-largest, plan to strike on Jan. 4, union official Miguel Lopez said today after renewed contract talks broke down. The metal capped its biggest annual gain on record as demand climbed while supplies remained tight.
“Copper has the best outlook for next year,” said Eliane Tanner, a Credit Suisse Group AG analyst in Zurich. “It is suffering from supply-side constraints.”
Copper futures for March delivery advanced 0.15 cent to $3.3465 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Earlier, the most-active contract touched $3.379, the highest price since Sept. 2, 2008.
The current contract for Chuquicamata miners ends today, union official Jamie Graz said. On Dec. 28, the workers voted to strike after rejecting a 3.8 percent pay increase offered by Codelco. The union sought 5 percent on Dec. 23.
Copper has more than doubled this year. Expectations of revived global economic growth helped boost prices along with a decline in the dollar. The metal was also pushed higher by record first-half imports to China, the world’s largest user.
“Next year, we can expect copper to move higher,” said Matthew Zeman, a LaSalle Futures Group trader in Chicago. “The global economic picture is looking up, and people are optimistic about the prospects for demand.”
The price may reach $3.50 in the “next couple of weeks,” Zeman said. Copper almost quadrupled this decade, with the most- active contract setting a record at $4.2605 on May 5, 2008, as consumption rose in emerging economies including China and India.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for three-month delivery rose $45, or 0.6 percent, to $7,375 a ton ($3.35 a pound). Among other metals for three-month delivery, zinc, lead and tin prices rose. Nickel and aluminum fell.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aICAo27kVhfU
Gold 1098.50 - May Rise
as New Index Weighting Spurs Demand, Survey Shows.
By Claudia Carpenter
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise as investors buy futures to reflect the metal’s increased weighting in a benchmark raw-materials index.
Twelve of 20 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 60 percent, said bullion would gain next week. Eight forecast lower prices. Gold futures for delivery in February were down 0.8 percent for this week at $1,095.60 an ounce at noon yesterday in New York.
New York gold futures will make up 9.1 percent of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index in 2010, compared with 7.86 percent for this year, according to Dow Jones Indexes/STOXX Ltd. The gauge will be rebalanced from Jan. 11 to Jan. 15, said Dow Jones spokeswoman Andrea Weidemann in Frankfurt.
The change will boost gold “definitely, particularly should more money be allocated to commodities in 2010 as we at Midas forecast,” said Tom Winmill, New York-based portfolio manager of the Midas Fund. The precious-metal fund has $120 million in assets and gained 83 percent this year through Dec. 29, he said.
About $43 billion was invested in funds tracking raw materials in the Dow Jones UBS indexes as of Sept. 30, according to Dow Jones.
The red bars on the attached chart were derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates. Readings below zero signal that the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data shown are as of Dec. 25.
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 169 of 294 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 8 Neutral: 0
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abW7ydb3aOyU
Gold May Rise as New Index Weighting Spurs Demand, Survey Shows.
1096.50
By Claudia Carpenter
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise as investors buy futures to reflect the metal’s increased weighting in a benchmark raw-materials index.
Twelve of 20 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 60 percent, said bullion would gain next week. Eight forecast lower prices. Gold futures for delivery in February were down 0.8 percent for this week at $1,095.60 an ounce at noon yesterday in New York.
New York gold futures will make up 9.1 percent of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index in 2010, compared with 7.86 percent for this year, according to Dow Jones Indexes/STOXX Ltd. The gauge will be rebalanced from Jan. 11 to Jan. 15, said Dow Jones spokeswoman Andrea Weidemann in Frankfurt.
The change will boost gold “definitely, particularly should more money be allocated to commodities in 2010 as we at Midas forecast,” said Tom Winmill, New York-based portfolio manager of the Midas Fund. The precious-metal fund has $120 million in assets and gained 83 percent this year through Dec. 29, he said.
About $43 billion was invested in funds tracking raw materials in the Dow Jones UBS indexes as of Sept. 30, according to Dow Jones.
The red bars on the attached chart were derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates. Readings below zero signal that the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data shown are as of Dec. 25.
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 169 of 294 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 8 Neutral: 0
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abW7ydb3aOyU
Gold Stumbles
in New York as Growth May Curb Investment Demand
By Claudia Carpenter and Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures fell in New York on speculation that U.S. economic growth will curb demand for the precious metal as an alternative to the dollar.
Silver also dropped as the greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of six major currencies after a report showed companies in the U.S. expanded this month more than economists anticipated. Before today, gold futures slid 11 percent from a record of $1,227.50 an ounce, set on Dec. 3.
“As long as the dollar continues to rally, gold doesn’t have a prayer,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $9.60, or 0.9 percent, to $1,088.50 at 10:45 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In London, bullion for immediate delivery dropped $8.41, or 0.8 percent, to $1,088.43 an ounce. Before today, the spot price also dropped 11 percent from a record of $1,226.56 on Dec. 3.
The 20-day moving average for spot gold at about $1,120 is “perilously close” to the 50-day moving average of almost $1,118, according to Rhona O’Connell, a managing director of research company GFMS Analytics Ltd. in London.
A drop in the 20-day average below the 50-day line “would not be good news at all” for investors betting on higher prices, O’Connell said. “Technicals look horrid.”
Before today, gold futures fell 7.1 percent this month, heading for the biggest monthly decline since October 2008.
A gauge of business activity from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. rose to 60, the highest level since January 2006, from 56.1 in November, the group said today. Readings above 50 signal expansion. A drop to a median estimate of 55.1 was projected by 53 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Gold rose 24 percent in 2009 before today as the Federal Reserve kept lending rates near zero percent to spur U.S. growth.
Also in New York, silver futures for March delivery fell 33 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $16.78 an ounce. April platinum slid $13, or 0.9 percent, to $1,463 an ounce. Palladium for March delivery rose $10.15, or 2.6 percent, to $399 an ounce.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3021974920091230
Zinc and Lead climb, Copper Gains for Fourth Day in Asia, Trades Near 15-Month High
By Glenys Sim
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Copper reversed losses in Asia, climbing for a fourth day to trade near a 15-month high on speculation Chilean supplies, the world’s largest, may be disrupted as workers voted to go on strike.
The metal used in construction and automobiles rose 2.9 percent yesterday, the most since Nov. 16, after workers at Codelco’s Chuquicamata mine, the world’s second-biggest, said they may strike on Dec. 31. This follows a strike which began Dec. 28 by workers at Xstrata Plc’s Altonorte copper smelter.
“Strikes always raise the possibility of supplies being disrupted and given the fine balance of the copper market, it gives traders a reason to push prices up,” said Ding Yujie, Shenzhen-based analyst at Nanhua Futures Co.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained as much as 0.3 percent to $7,300 a metric ton at 11:26 a.m. in Singapore, after falling as much as 0.5 percent earlier. It climbed to $7,307 a ton yesterday, the highest price since Sept. 22, 2008.
March-delivery copper on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was 0.4 percent higher at $3.3250 a pound, while April-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 0.5 percent to 58,900 yuan ($8,626) a ton.
Copper has more than doubled this year, poised for a record annual increase, as governments ramped up stimulus spending to lift their economies out of recession, spurring raw material demand. It also rallied as the dollar slid 4 percent against a basket of six currencies, including the euro and yen.
“The metals have had a very good run this year and the outlook for better demand next year remains unchanged,” said Ding.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum rose 0.2 percent to $2,278 a ton, zinc gained 1.8 percent to $2,593 a ton, and lead gained 0.2 percent to $2,455 a ton. Nickel was unchanged at $19,200 a ton, while tin dropped 0.2 percent to $16,700 a ton.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRYcRxcW26OM
Gold 1093.20 down for 2nd day.
Gold Declines for a Second Day as Dollar’s Rebound Curbs Demand
By Kim Kyoungwha
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined for a second day as a rebounding dollar curbed investor appetite for the precious metal as an alternative asset.
The dollar may gain against the euro for a third day before a report economists said will show U.S. manufacturing expanded in December for a fifth month, adding to signs the economy is gaining momentum. Gold weakened 7.3 percent in December, paring this year’s advance to 24 percent, as the Dollar Index, a six- currency gauge of the dollar’s value, rose 4 percent.
“Gold prices are mirroring a rebound in the dollar with few in the market willing to trade actively,” said Park Jong Beom, a trader with Tongyang Futures Co. in Seoul. “Gold will resume its feisty rally in the new year as an economic recovery reignites talk of an inflation hedge.”
Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.4 percent to $1,092.60 an ounce at 8:34 a.m. in Singapore. Gold for February delivery in New York fell 0.4 percent to $1,093.30 an ounce.
Some investors also sold the metal to book profits after gains this year, analysts said. Gold, which almost quadrupled in this decade, rising from $288 on Dec. 31, 1999, is headed for the first monthly decline since August.
Demand for precious metals has surged as investors sought protection against the prospect of a currency debasement and inflation after the worst recession since World War II prompted governments worldwide to increase money supply and shore up their economic growth.
Among other precious metals, platinum for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,461.15 an ounce, silver slid 0.6 percent to $16.99 an ounce and palladium was down 0.4 percent at $385.50 an ounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3VpmJdDFJeo
Gold May Fall as Some Investors Sell After Rally to Record
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures, little changed in New York, may fall as some investors book profits after the metal rose to a record this year.
Gold has outperformed stocks and bonds in 2009 as the metal heads for the ninth straight annual gain. Before today, prices climbed 25 percent in 2009, touching a record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3.
“Some of the larger buyers have bailed on gold and, until the big money comes back on the buy side, gold is going to struggle,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago.
Gold futures for February delivery fell 30 cents to $1,104.50 an ounce at 10:52 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price climbed 1.7 percent in the previous two sessions. The market was closed on Dec. 25 for the Christmas holiday.
Before today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 20 percent this year and returns on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 9.6 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVAXWwaxbU2A
Copper rises near 15-month highs, Gold prices rally over 1% to around $1,100 an ounce
LONDON: Gold prices rallied over one percent on Thursday to around $1,100 an ounce as the dollar fell and due to robust investment flows in anticipation of higher bullion prices.
Spot gold was at $1,099.55 an ounce by 1330 GMT, versus $1,087 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday. Bullion tumbled to a seven-week low of $1,074.10 an ounce earlier this week.
Analysts said the price moves were partly exaggerated due to low liquidity because of the Christmas holiday period, but the fundamentals that sent gold to an all-time high of $1,226.10 an ounce in early December were intact.
US gold futures for February delivery rose 1.1 percent to $1,106.40, compared with $1,094.00 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures also hit a seven-week low of $1,075.20 on Tuesday.
The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,132.708 tonnes as of Dec 23, unchanged from the previous business day and staying just below a record high of 1,134.03 tonnes hit on June 1. The world’s largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust, said its silver holdings stood at 9,492.97 tonnes as of Dec 23, unchanged from the previous business day, after easing from a record high of 9,514.35 tonnes on Dec. 22.
Among other precious metals, spot silver was bid at $17.24 an ounce against $17.09. Platinum and palladium rose by nearly three percent and over five percent respectively after the SEC said on its website that orders were granted to approve a proposed rule change for ETFS Platinum and Palladium Trusts to list and trade shares.
Platinum was at $1,454 ounce against $1,418.50, while palladium was at $372.50 against $355.50.
Copper high: Copper rose near 15-month highs on Monday, underpinned by the dollar’s first fall in five sessions, supply concerns and expectations demand will improve next year.
Zinc hit a fresh 21-month high, tin a 14-month high and nickel a two-month high despite stocks of the metal in LME warehouses hitting their highest ever levels.
Benchmark copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange traded at $7,110 a tonne in official rings from a close of $7,000 on Wednesday.
Nickel inventories at London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses climbed 1,836 tonnes on Thursday to hit their highest ever level at 152,400 tonnes. Prices of the metal were little affected by the news. Stainless steel making ingredient nickel traded at $18,750 in rings from $18,425, having earlier hit $18,900, its highest level in two months. Elsewhere, zinc traded at $2,531 a tonne from $2,539, having earlier hit $2,551, a level not seen since mid-March last year.
Sister metal lead, used to make batteries, was last bid at $2,359.50 from $2,332, while tin was last bid at $16,100 from $16,025, having earlier hit $16,200, a level not seen since early October last year. Aluminium, used in transport and packaging, traded at $2,250 from $2,256. reuters
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\12\25\story_25-12-2009_pg5_32
US copper up early on weak dollar, momentum buying
Thu Dec 24, 2009 9:15am EST
NEW YORK, Dec 24 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures strengthened to near
15-month highs Thursday morning, driven by extended losses in the dollar,
supply threats in Chile, and pre-holiday momentum buying.
For detailed report on global copper markets, click on [MET/L]
* Benchmark copper for March delivery HGH0 firmed 4.45 cents to
$3.2480 a lb by 9:09 a.m. EST (1409 GMT) on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division.
* Range from $3.1920 to $3.25, the contract's loftiest level since Dec.
4, and near a 15-month peak at $3.2750.
* Weekly buy-signal triggered at $3.22 a lb drove early gains. Momentum
could carry market up to challenge of yearly high at $3.2750 - Larry Young,
senior trader at Infinity Futures Inc. in Chicago.
* Weaker dollar driving much of the rally in treacherously thin market
conditions - MF Global analyst Edward Meir.
* COMEX estimated futures volume at 5,002 lots by 9 a.m.
* Some New York energy and commodity will close early on Thursday, Dec.
24, and all will be closed on Friday for Christmas Day. Business will
resume on Monday.
* The dollar trimmed losses against the euro on Thursday after data
showed U.S. durable goods orders rose in November, while initial jobless
claims fell last week. [ID:nN24182625] [ID:nN23158877]
* Weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the American currency more
attractive to non-U.S. investors. [USD/]
* Copper underpinned by potential supply threat at one of the world's
largest copper mines, Codelco's Chuquicamata, if union workers reject final
wage offer.
* Codelco said it will have enough copper stocks to honor contracts
early next year if union workers strike. [ID:nN23160262]
* London Metal Exchange copper warehouse stocks added another 2,025
tonnes to eight-month peak at 484,800 tonnes on Thursday. <0#LME-STOCKS>
* COMEX copper stocks rose by 827 short tons to 98,021 short tons as of
Wednesday.
* Japanese and Chinese copper smelters agreed to a 38 percent cut in
2010 treatment charges with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX.N).
[ID:nSGE5BN025]
* LME three-month copper MCU3 last traded at $7,080 a tonne, up $80
from Wednesday's close.
(Reporting by Chris Kelly; Editing by John Picinich)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2433099520091224
Inventory up, Copper projected to drop
After China Expands Stockpiles, Survey Shows
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may drop on speculation bigger stockpiles in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, will keep imports below record levels, a survey showed.
Eleven of 22 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg said copper would fall next week. Nine predicted higher prices and two were neutral.
Copper stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen almost sixfold to 104,377 metric tons, from 17,822 tons at the beginning of the year, according to the exchange. Unaudited inventories may be 900,000 tons to 1 million tons, Royal Bank of Scotland Plc estimates.
“China has been a key driver in prices but the nation has been accumulating stockpiles from imports,” Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS, said by phone. “That’s one of the headwinds we see going for next year.”
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting the bearish forecasts from the bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expecting a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The data shown are as of Dec. 18.
Shipments of refined copper into China totaled 194,388 tons in November, 15 percent more than in October. That’s 49 percent below record imports of 378,943 tons in June.
Copper for three-month delivery rose 2.3 percent this week to $7,005 a metric ton by 5 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 33 of the past 69 weeks, or 48 percent of the time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXKcvvZ1zS5s
Gold climbs 1093.80
as Stalled Dollar Rally Revives Demand for Bullion
By Nicholas Larkin and Millie Munshi
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices climbed the most in a week as the dollar sank for the first time in seven days, boosting demand for precious metals as a haven.
The dollar fell as much as 0.7 percent against a basket of six major currencies on speculation that December’s rally will be hard to sustain. Before today, the greenback rose 4.5 percent this month against the currency basket as gold fell 8.1 percent.
“The gold moves are all related to the dollar,” said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis. “The dollar had been strong for a few weeks now, putting a cap on prices. If this is the end of that rally, then gold will start to move higher again.”
Gold futures for February delivery rose $7.30, or 0.7 percent, to $1,094 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit, the biggest gain since Dec. 16 for the most-active contract.
Bullion extended gains after a report showed new U.S. home purchases unexpectedly fell last month while consumer spending rose less than forecast, spurring further dollar weakness and boosting demand for the metal as a haven. Gold has gained 24 percent this year as U.S. growth slumped during the longest recession since World War II.
In London, gold for immediate delivery gained $8.02, or 0.7 percent, to $1,092.02 an ounce at 7:22 p.m. local time.
Earlier Decline
The metal fell as much as 0.6 percent in New York earlier after the U.S. Dollar Index, the six-currency gauge, climbed to the highest level in more than three months yesterday. The dollar gained on signs that the recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, was accelerating, and gold slid to a seven-week low.
“In the run-up to year-end, we expect gold to see further pockets of long liquidation, potentially pulling back to the $1,050 area,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report. A stronger dollar may leave gold and silver “vulnerable to selling pressure,” he said.
Bullion is headed for a ninth annual gain. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, were unchanged at 1,132.7 metric tons as of yesterday, according to the fund’s Web site. The fund’s cache reached a record of about 1,134 tons on June 1.
Also in New York, silver futures for March delivery rose 16 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $17.19 an ounce. The metal has climbed 52 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aamLNgvrTTJ4
Copper Falls, Lead unchanged as Rising Stockpiles Signal Weakening Demand
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Millie Munshi
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell as stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost six years, signaling weaker demand for the metal.
Inventories tallied by the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3 percent today to 480,900 metric tons. Global supplies, monitored by the LME and exchanges in Shanghai and New York, have surged 74 percent this year to the most since February 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The market is focused on warehouse stocks that are continuing to rise,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at MF Global Ltd.’s Lind-Waldock unit in Chicago. “It’s bringing into question what demand will look like.”
Copper futures for March delivery slipped 2.05 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.138 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit.
“Metal inventories continue trending upward,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at London-based Standard Chartered Plc. Higher supplies of the metal and a strengthening dollar may result in “a pullback through the next couple weeks,” he said.
The dollar gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of six currencies today and is up 4.5 percent this month, paring a loss for the year to 3.8 percent. Some traders buy commodities as the greenback weakens to preserve purchasing power.
China Data
“The inflationary views seem to have been damped and that’s being reflected in the copper price,” said Lind- Waldock’s Klopfenstein. Traders “shrugged off” signs of rising demand in China, the world’s biggest metals user, he said.
Refined-copper imports by China rose to 194,388 tons at the end of last month, government data show. That’s up 15 percent from Oct. 30, which was the lowest level since November 2008.
Copper prices have more than doubled this year in New York as shipments into China climbed to a record in the first half.
“The Chinese news would ordinarily be bullish, but people are worried about the increasing supplies,” Klopfenstein said.
Production of copper outpaced consumption by 3,000 tons in September, the International Copper Study Group said yesterday in an e-mailed report.
In the first half of next year, metal prices will “be more indicative of the strength and sustainability of recovery,” analysts at Fitch Inc. led by Monica Bonar in New York said today in a report. The outlook for industrial metals is “stable,” the analysts said.
In London, copper for three-month delivery fell $54, or 0.8 percent, to $6,881 a metric ton ($3.12 a pound) on the LME. Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum, nickel, tin and zinc fell. Lead was unchanged.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a.oRVlq1a_ZU
Gold 1083.50 - Vacillates
Fluctuates After Falling Past Two Days on Dollar Outlook
By Kim Kyoungwha
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fluctuated in early trading in Asia after falling the past two days as a rebounding dollar reduced demand for the precious metal and volumes wane as investors prepare for year-end holidays.
The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, is trading near its highest level in more than three months, on signs of a recovery in the world’s largest economy. Sales of existing U.S. homes reached their highest level in almost three years last month, a report showed yesterday.
“Commodities including gold will probably remain weak as long as the dollar continues its rise,” said Park Jong Beom, a senior trader with Tongyang Futures Co. in Seoul. “With major market players closing their year-end books, volume is thin and the market is easily swayed by two-way fluctuations.”
Gold for immediate delivery climbed a much as 0.4 percent to $1,088.28 an ounce, having earlier dipped 0.1 percent. It was at $1,087.68 at 9:30 a.m. in Singapore. Gold for February delivery in New York gained 0.2 percent at $1,085.30 an ounce.
Gold, up 23 percent this year, is headed for its ninth annual gain. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, were unchanged at 1,132.71 metric tons yesterday according to the fund’s Web site. They reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.2 percent to $16.9650 an ounce, platinum gained 0.2 percent at $1,397.25 an ounce and palladium declined 0.6 percent to $356.44 an ounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAuKXeUJWysk
Copper Gains for Second Day http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aE5D6pyg1GPI
By Millie Munshi and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose for a second session on speculation that demand will increase from China, the world’s biggest metals user.
The country is targeting 8 percent growth in 2010 and an 11 percent gain in industrial production, industry minister Li Yizhong said. Chinese imports may increase after higher domestic prices made overseas purchases cheaper, analysts said. Copper has more than doubled this year as shipments to China climbed to a record in the first half.
“Global economic prospects look a lot brighter, and China is going to be the leader in the recovery,” said Matthew Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “If they can achieve the kind of growth they’re aiming for, copper and other commodities are going to do well.”
Copper futures for March delivery rose 2 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.1585 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. The price gained 0.2 percent last week.
Shanghai copper prices were at the highest premium above London Metal Exchange copper since mid-July, according to analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. led by Jim Lennon in London.
“There is an arbitrage opportunity” with the price differential, said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Calyon in London. “We look for further strength in copper prices.”
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for three-month delivery gained 1.3 percent to $6,935 a ton ($3.15 a pound).
Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, tin, zinc, aluminum and nickel prices gained. Lead fell.
.
1090.80 - Gold Declines as Dollar Rebounds
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell after the dollar rebounded, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.
The dollar rose as much as 0.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies, extending this month’s rally to 4.2 percent. Before today, gold gained 26 percent this year and reached a record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3 as near-zero U.S. interest rates drove the dollar to a 15-month low on Nov. 26.
“The dollar is rallying now, and that’s taken the wind out of gold’s sails,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $15.50, or 1.4 percent, to $1,096 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The dollar rose on speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year as the economy improves. Gold fell 5.4 percent in the previous three weeks as the dollar gained 3.8 percent.
Futures trading in Chicago indicated a 36 percent chance that policy makers would increase the target rate for overnight lending to 0.5 percent in June, up from 27 percent odds a month ago. The Federal funds rate has been between zero and 0.25 percent since last December.
Gold will underperform other commodities and equities in 2010, said Michael Darda, the chief economist for MKM Partners LP in Greenwich, Connecticut.
“A stable to rising dollar and a stronger-than-expected U.S. recovery next year should be a restraint on the price of gold,” Darda said today in a Top-10 list of predictions for 2010.
Darda in January predicted gold would rise above $1,000 this year.
Annual Gain
Gold is headed for the ninth straight annual gain. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, increased 6.1 metric tons to 1,126.61 tons on Dec. 18, its Web site showed. They climbed to a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
Russia’s central bank bought 30 metric tons of gold from the state precious-metals and gems depository Gokhran for about $1 billion, the Finance Ministry said. India, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius have also increased their holdings of bullion this year.
Dennis Gartman, an economist, hedge-fund manager and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, recommended buying gold in foreign currencies.
“We remain quite bullish of gold, but in terms of euros, sterling and yen,” he said.
In other metals markets, silver for March delivery fell 28.5 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $17.035 an ounce. The metal is up 51 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDYRClW8OmUc
Gold 1112.40 as of Friday's close.
http://www.magyver.com/metals.htm
Gold $1097.10 - Down 2.5% as Dollar’s Rebound Reduces Metal Demand
By Pham-Duy Nguyen and Nicholas Larkin
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold tumbled 2.5 percent in New York as the dollar’s rebound eroded demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.
The greenback rose to a three-month high against the euro on demand for a haven amid Greek debt concerns. The Federal Reserve said yesterday the U.S. economy is strengthening, a signal that policy makers may begin to raise interest rates next year from a record low. Gold jumped to a record $1,227.50 on Dec. 3 as the U.S. currency slumped.
“The dollar is beginning to scream,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “If the Fed raises rates, it’s over for gold.”
Gold futures for February delivery fell $28.80, or 2.5 percent, to $1,107.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest drop since Dec. 4.
Losses accelerated after the price dropped below the 50-day moving average of $1,106.59, based on yesterday’s settlement. The metal slid as low as $1,098 in electronic trading after the close today.
“This is a key level that people will be watching,” Zeman said. “A lot of people who are long have resting sell stops at the 50-day.”
The dollar has dropped 2.5 percent against the euro this year. The Fed maintained its benchmark rate at zero percent to 0.25 percent to revive the economy. The European Central Bank’s main rate is 1 percent.
Gold has gained 25 percent this year, heading for a ninth straight annual gain.
‘Big Days’
“Too many people are short of the dollar, and when they start to cover, the dollar could have a lot of big days,” Kaplan said. “I can’t see gold holding if the dollar rallies.”
The Fed said yesterday that most of its lending programs would expire as scheduled on Feb. 1 because of “improvements in the functioning of financial markets.” Policy makers said the labor market is stabilizing, and they affirmed a pledge to keep rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”
“In times of crisis, where you don’t trust paper money and the financial system, then people like the physical aspect of holding gold,” Adrian Mowat, the chief Asian and emerging- markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “As we get a recovery, I think gold is going to look like a poor asset class as we go into next year.”
Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, said the dollar is undergoing a “watershed shift in its trend, moving away from a protracted bear market to what is now a protracted, but almost wholly unexpected, bull market.”
He recommended owning gold priced in foreign currencies.
Silver for March delivery fell 49.8 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $17.195 an ounce in New York. The metal has gained 52 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aytGs03Rxnn4
Industrial metals climb, Copper Rises Most in a Month on Bets Metal Demand Will Climb
By Millie Munshi and Anna Stablum
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose the most in a month on speculation that record-low U.S. interest rates will support demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.
The Federal Reserve today reiterated its intent to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period” and said the economy is strengthening. Copper prices have more than doubled this year as low borrowing costs and rising government spending spurred an economic rebound.
“Another year of low rates is good for all growth- sensitive assets, such as commodities,” Jesper Dannesboe, a Societe Generale commodity strategist in London, said before the Fed statement.
Copper futures for March delivery rose 4.75 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $3.189 a pound at 3:29 p.m. in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The most-active contract earlier settled up 2 percent at $3.2055, for the biggest gain since Nov. 16.
Fed officials kept their benchmark target rate for overnight-lending between banks near zero percent, according to the statement released after the close of Comex floor trading. The central bank dropped the target-rate range to no more than 0.25 percent a year earlier.
Copper also climbed today as a report showed builders began work on more U.S. homes in November, while residential building permits rose to the highest number this year, indicating the recovery in property development may extend into 2010.
Housing Rebound
Housing starts rose 8.9 percent from October to an annual rate of 574,000 units, the Commerce Department said. Building permits, a sign of future home construction, climbed 6 percent to 584,000 units.
Builders account for a quarter of all copper consumption, according to the Copper Development Association.
“The housing-starts number showed a bit of a rebound for construction, and that’s positive for copper demand,” said Matt Zeman, a LaSalle Futures Group trader in Chicago.
Demand will be strong next year as consumption gains in China, the world’s biggest metal user, said Andrew Karsh, a co- manager of funds for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy team, which oversees about $4.4 billion.
“Industrial metals are a favorite of ours,” Karsh said yesterday in a telephone interview from New York. “There is real demand growing from emerging markets. Copper, lead, aluminum and other metals are required to increase infrastructure in places like China and India.”
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months gained $144, or 2.1 percent, to $7,039 a metric ton ($3.19 a pound), settling before the Fed issued its statement. Zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin and lead also rose in London.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNg3bhaihpdQ
Gold 1137.90 - http://www.magyver.com/metals.htm
Gold Rises Most in Two Weeks on Dollar’s Slide, Rate Outlook
By Pham-Duy Nguyen and Nicholas Larkin
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose the most in two weeks on speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep U.S. borrowing costs low in the medium term, weighing down the dollar and increasing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.
The greenback fell from a two-month high against a basket of major currencies. The Fed may reiterate its pledge to keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero percent. Gold has climbed 28 percent this year, reaching a record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3, as the dollar slumped 5.5 percent.
“This is all about expectations the Fed will have to leave rates low for an extended period of time,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock & Co. in Chicago. “That is bullish for gold.”
Gold futures for February delivery rose $13.20, or 1.2 percent, to $1,136.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Dec. 1. The metal headed for the ninth straight annual gain.
The dollar fell as much as 0.4 percent against the euro. The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 1 percent. All 98 economists in a Bloomberg survey said the Fed will keep its rate at zero percent to 0.25 percent today.
“The market will be looking for any indication of an earlier liquidity withdrawal or interest-rate rises, given recent bullish U.S. data,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said today in a report. “It is too early to turn completely bullish on the greenback, but sentiment is certainly improving.”
Morgan Stanley said gold will rise to a record next year before declining in 2013 as a rebounding U.S. economy forces the Fed to raise rates.
“Under our base-case scenario, we anticipate the peak price could be in the range of $1,250 to $1,300,” Morgan Stanley said. “Under our bull-case scenario, which anticipates a later rise in U.S. interest rates and the dollar, this peak range could be as high as $1,325 to $1,350.”
Silver futures for March delivery rose 23.8 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $17.693 an ounce in New York. The metal has gained 57 percent this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajzF0XKOl_Oo
Lead falls, while Zinc rises, Copper Pares Gains in Asia as Strong Dollar Cools Metal Demand
By Glenys Sim
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper pared gains in Asia as the dollar’s rebound made raw materials priced in the U.S. currency less attractive to investors.
The dollar traded near a two-month high against the euro on speculation the economic recovery will pressure the Federal Reserve to raise borrowing costs. It climbed against 14 of its 16 major counterparts before reports this week forecast to show U.S. industries boosted output and housing starts rebounded.
“More recently, the dollar’s performance has been driving metals and this looks likely to continue in the near term,” said Yuan Fang, a trader at Shanghai East Asia Futures Co.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange traded little changed at $6,925 a metric ton by 3 p.m. in Singapore, after gaining as much as 0.5 percent earlier. The contract for March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was barely changed at $3.1555 a pound.
March-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the day little changed at 55,110 yuan ($8,071) a ton, after earlier climbing as much as 0.6 percent.
The metal used in power cables and construction more than doubled this year as the global economy recovers from its worst postwar recession. Copper imports by China, the world’s largest metals user, rebounded from a nine-month low in November even as stockpiles shrank to a two-month low last week.
“It is mainly China’s demand that has fueled the rally in prices,” said Yuan. “This is widely expected to continue into next year and along with expectations of a recovery in demand from users outside of China, we may see higher prices yet.”
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum advanced 0.3 percent to $2,265 a ton, zinc rose 0.4 percent to $2,344 a ton and nickel was little changed at $16,906 a ton. Lead fell 0.2 percent to $2,335 a ton, while tin slid 0.3 percent to $15,260 a ton by 3:01 p.m. in Singapore.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLFO331mZcZo
Tuesday,- Gold Drops as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
(That's what they are telling us, I call BS)
By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in New York and London as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.
The dollar rose to more than a two-month high against the euro amid speculation the U.S. economic recovery will prompt the Federal Reserve to start reducing stimulus measures. Futures, which typically move inversely to the greenback, have dropped 9.2 percent since reaching a record $1,227.50 on Dec. 3, as the dollar gained 3.5 percent against the euro in the period.
“The dollar is reining in gold,” Narayan Gopalakrishnan, a Geneva-based trader at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA, said by phone today. “We’re still seeing a profit-taking mood. There was a rapid gain all the way up, too quick, too fast, and a correction is needed.”
Bullion futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit lost as much as $11.20, or 1 percent, to $1,112.60 an ounce and were at $1,114.40 by 8:23 a.m. local time. Gold for immediate delivery in London was 1.2 percent lower at $1,113.55.
The metal slipped to $1,115 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $1,123.75 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. The dollar climbed as much as 0.9 percent against the euro today.
“It’s a dollar play for gold,” Zhang Dajiang, a senior analyst at Pioneer Metals Group, said from Beijing. “As long as the dollar stays resilient, we’re going to see volatility and some weakness in the gold price.”
Interest Rates
Bullion futures have increased 26 percent this year as record-low interest rates sent the dollar 5.4 percent lower against a basket of six major currencies and on concern inflation will accelerate. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision on interest rates tomorrow at the end of a two-day meeting.
“Gold represents insurance against an inflationary outcome and given the low cost of ownership, it should continue to attract investors as long as the outlook for U.S. short-term interest rates remains unchanged,” Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts led by Jim Lennon wrote in a report.
U.K. inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in six months in November, the Office for National Statistics said today. The 1.9 percent increase from a year earlier beat economists’ forecasts.
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, increased 0.3 metric ton to 1,116.55 tons yesterday, its Web site showed. They reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1. Holdings in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded products declined 0.3 percent to 7.841 million ounces yesterday, its Web site showed.
Silver for March delivery in New York fell 0.8 percent to $17.20 an ounce. Platinum for January delivery lost 0.7 percent to $1,437 an ounce, and palladium for March delivery was 0.8 percent lower at $365.25 an ounce.
ETF Securities’ silver holdings dropped 1.7 percent to 23.421 million ounces yesterday, while platinum assets increased 0.8 percent to a record 434,211 ounces.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a88ZWq8Fk9NU
12-14-09 Monday, Gold May
Advance in New York as Weaker Dollar Spurs Demand
By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim
Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, little changed in New York today, may rise as a weaker dollar spurs investors to buy bullion to hedge against further declines in the currency.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six counterparts, fell as much as 0.4 percent after Abu Dhabi pledged to bail out Dubai. Futures, which typically move inversely to the dollar, dropped to four-week low of $1,110.20 an ounce on Dec. 11, as the dollar climbed to a two-month high against the euro.
“We’re seeing weakness in the dollar,” Sagiv Perez, a senior dealer at Finotec Trading U.K. in London, said by phone. “There was such a big correction. Now people are looking for a reason to buy it back.”
Bullion futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit added $3, or 0.3 percent, to $1,122.90 an ounce at 8:27 a.m. local time. The metal dropped 4.2 percent last week. Gold for immediate delivery in London was 0.7 percent higher at $1,123.20.
“The performance of the dollar will continue to determine gold’s direction,” said Zhu Bin, president of futures research at Nanhua Futures Co., from Hangzhou, eastern China.
The metal slipped to $1,120 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $1,124 at the afternoon fixing on Dec. 11. Bullion futures have tumbled 8.5 percent from a record $1,227.50 on Dec. 3, while the Dollar Index advanced 2.5 percent.
Consolidation Ahead
“The dollar sentiment could be gradually improving and this would slow down much expected gains in early 2010,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said today in a report. “We shall see a prolonged period of consolidation here ahead of gradual gains at the start” of next year, he said.
The metal may advance to $1,500 by the middle of next year on concern that inflation will accelerate and on purchases by Asian central banks, Societe Generale said in a report today. Precious metals may rally “sharply” in the next two quarters, outpacing other commodities, the bank said. Macquarie Group Ltd. raised its forecast for gold next year by 14 percent to $1,150 as it increased commodity estimates citing higher demand.
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, were unchanged for a third day at 1,116.25 metric tons on Dec. 11, its Web site showed. They reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
Silver for March delivery in New York rose 0.9 percent to $17.235 an ounce. Platinum for January delivery added 1.3 percent to $1,440.80 an ounce, and palladium for March delivery was 7 percent higher at $364.50 an ounce.
Macquarie raised its 2010 silver forecast by 13 percent to $18, increased its platinum estimate by 14 percent to $1,413 and its palladium outlook by 8 percent to $338 an ounce, according to a report. The bank raised its rhodium forecast by 50 percent to $3,000 an ounce. The metal traded unchanged at $2,175 today, according to prices from Johnson Matthey Plc on Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atCV8a3Ws7S4
Gold continues free fall, hits 4-week low as U.S. data lifts dollar
Frank Tang and Jan Harvey
Fri Dec 11, 2009 3:18pm EST
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices hit a four-week low of $1,109.10 an ounce on Friday, reversing initial gains as upbeat U.S. economic data bolstered the dollar and sent bullion investors racing to cut positions.
Signs of economic uncertainties outside of the United States, highlighted by worries over sovereign debt in Spain and Greece, also boosted the safe-haven dollar and diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.
"Clearly, dollar strength will make more recent gold buyers wonder if they have done the right thing. The action of investors will depend upon how committed they are to the long-term bull story in gold," said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist of broker Execution LLC in New York.
In the past, gold has served as a safe haven in times of economic crisis. However, spot bullion is now trading more than $100 below its record high $1,226.10 reached on December 3, due to liquidation.
Spot gold was at $1,116.15 an ounce at 2:28 p.m. EST (1928 GMT), against $1,130.15 late in New York on Thursday. It rose as high as $1,141.90 an ounce early in trading.
Year to date, gold has still gained 27 percent.
U.S. February gold futures settled down $6.30 at $1,119.90 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX.
The dollar turned sharply higher against the euro after data showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in November, boosting hopes of a self-sustaining economic recovery.
The currency extended gains after a survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early December.
Year-end book-squaring by institutional investors also added selling pressure in gold, traders said.
"There is position liquidation before the year-end. The big players want to get out of positions and take their profits," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of sales at Heraeus Precious Metals Management.
Among other commodities, oil prices dropped 1 percent to below $70 a barrel. Gold tends to track crude prices as the metal can be bought as a hedge against oil-led inflation.
Elsewhere a source at the Russian state repository Gokhran said on Friday it was likely to sell 30 tons of gold to the country's central bank next week. Traders say central bank interest in gold as a reserve asset is growing.
CHINA OUTPUT CLIMBS
On the physical side of the market, premiums for gold bars firmed in Asia after gold retreated from record highs, while higher Indian jewelry during the wedding season helped offset scrap sales from other Asian holders, dealers said.
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Friday the country produced 26.354 tons of gold in October. Gold output in the first 10 months rose 14.1 percent to 254.552 tons, it added.
China is the world's main gold producer, and is set to take over from India as the biggest bullion consumer this year as well, according to the World Gold Council.
Among other precious metals, silver was at $17.12 an ounce against $17.37, platinum was at $1,426.50 an ounce against $1,422 and palladium at $359.50 against $362.50.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B10OV20091211
Zinc and Lead Climb, Copper Prices Gain on China’s Demand, Halting Six-Session Slump
By Anna Stablum and Millie Munshi
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose, halting a six- session slide, as China’s industrial output increased more than forecast in November and the country’s imports of the metal climbed from a nine-month low.
Factory output in China, the world’s biggest metal consumer, surged 19 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. Analysts projected 18 percent. Imports of copper and related products jumped 10 percent from October, the customs office said. Copper prices have more than doubled this year as China’s imports gained to a record in the first half.
“The bottom line is we think underlying consumption is booming,” said Max Layton, an analyst at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in London.
Copper futures for March delivery rose 3 cents, or 1 percent, to $3.133 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price dropped 4.8 percent in the previous six sessions.
This week, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 8.6 percent to 95,676 metric tons, the lowest since early October
The drop was “bullish on a two- to three-month view,” Layton said.
Copper pared gains after reports on the U.S. economy increased speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs, boosting the dollar.
Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in December and retail sales last month advanced more than analysts forecast. The greenback rose to a five-week high against a basket of six major currencies, curbing demand for commodities as an alternative asset.
‘Crimp on Commodities’
“Looking into next week, if the dollar continues to climb, it will put a crimp on commodities in general and also copper,” said William O’Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Uppper Saddle River, New Jersey. “We’ll probably be dominated by dollar movements for the rest of the year.”
Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.4 percent to $6,835 a metric ton ($3.10 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange.
Aluminum, nickel, lead and zinc prices also climbed in London. Tin fell.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aukBivj3gcbE
Copper Advances in New York as Weaker Dollar Bolsters Demand
By Anna Stablum
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Copper advanced in New York after the dollar declined on improving investor appetite for higher- yielding assets.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six major currencies, fell as much as 0.6 percent, increasing the allure of dollar-denominated commodities for holders of other monies.
“If the dollar weakens further this should help base metals,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone.
Copper for March delivery added 1.8 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.183 a pound as of 8:55 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Copper for delivery in three months was unchanged at $6,976 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.
Copper declined earlier today on concern about the strength of the global economic recovery after Japan’s economy expanded less than initially reported. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 1.3 percent, slower than the 4.8 percent reported last month, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo.
Copper has more than doubled this year, partly bolstered by speculation that improving economies will consume more metal.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 6.5 percent this year as the Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero to revive the country’s economy.
“The Fed is choosing a policy of extreme caution,” Alex Heath, head of industrial-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London, said by phone. “That is what is keeping the dollar under pressure.”
Copper Inventories
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the LME rose for a 27th day, to 458,500 tons. They have expanded 35 percent this year. Canceled warrants, or metal booked for delivery from warehouses, fell 28 percent to 1,050 tons. That’s equal to 0.2 percent of total stockpiles, down from 21 percent in May.
The inventory gain “matters little at the moment with funds and other speculators still in the driver’s seat,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London.
Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, nickel rose 0.7 percent to $16,270 a ton. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. agreed to buy BHP Billiton Ltd.’s shuttered Ravensthorpe nickel mine in Australia for $340 million with a goal of restarting operations within 18 months of the purchase being completed.
Aluminum rose $10 to $2,173 a ton, zinc gained 0.1 percent to $2,330 a ton and lead gained 0.6 percent to $2,301.6 a ton. Tin rose 0.5 percent to $15,224 a ton.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azro.JrpdJao
Gold Gains in London as Weak Dollar, Four-Day Drop Lure Buyers
By Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London as prospects for a weaker dollar drew some investors to the metal after its longest losing streak since August. Bullion futures fell in New York.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six major currencies, slid as much as 0.6 percent. Bullion fell in London for a fourth day yesterday, touching a three-week low, as the dollar gained and the Bank of Korea described the metal as an “illusion.” The bank said it was unlikely to buy more. Gold usually falls when the dollar climbs.
“The dollar is still the excuse,” said Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metals trading at bullion-refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “We have fallen quite drastically. We might see bargain hunters coming into the market.”
Gold for immediate delivery gained $14, or 1.2 percent, to $1,142.40 an ounce at 4:39 p.m. in London. Futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit slipped 50 cents to $1,142.90 an ounce.
The metal declined to $1,142.25 in the London morning “fixing,” the price used by some mining companies to sell their output, from $1,146.75 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Spot prices fell last week, the first such drop since Oct. 30.
“There’s some buying on weakness in gold and oil,” said Ben Westmore, a commodities analyst with National Australia Bank in Sydney. Crude slid for a fifth day yesterday in New York. Oil futures gained today in Nymex trading.
Dollar Hedge
Before today, gold dropped 8 percent in London from a record of $1,226.56 an ounce, reached on Dec. 3, while the dollar index gained 2.7 percent from its lowest level that day. Through yesterday, gold advanced 28 percent this year as investors sought a hedge against a weaker dollar and potential inflation and as central banks in India, Russia and Sri Lanka added to bullion stockpiles.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, fell 13.72 metric tons to 1,116.25 tons as of yesterday, according to the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
“We could see some people very excited to get back into gold” after its decline, MKS Finance’s Sin said. “If you’re seeking a safe haven, people will buy gold on dips.”
Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, silver increased 18.5 cents, or 1 percent, to $17.77 an ounce. Futures for March delivery fell 1.7 cents to $17.79 an ounce in Comex trading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAvb215FDAu8
Third day in a row, Dollar rise sends U.S. gold below $1,150/oz
Tue Dec 8, 2009 10:47am EST
NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures fell for a
third straight session on Tuesday, trading below $1,150 an
ounce, as a resurgent dollar prompted jittery bullion investors
to lighten up positions ahead of the year end.
Gold
* COMEX February gold GCG0 down $16.90, or 1.4 percent,
at $1,147.10 an ounce at 10:09 a.m. EST (1509 GMT) on the
NYMEX.
* Ranged from $1,142.70 to $1,170.20.
* Gold futures extending losses after they posted biggest
two-session percentage loss since October 2008 on Monday.
* Bullion pressured by a dollar rise against the euro after
Fitch downgraded Greece's credit rating. [USD/]
* Dollar strengthens broadly as risk-averse investors sell
gold, equities and commodities.
* Better near-term dollar outlook, lack of inflationary
pressure hurting gold - George Gero at RBC Capital Markets.
* COMEX open interest indicates more short sellers are
pressuring prices near the year end - Gero.
* Gold-to-oil ratio at 15.74, up from the previous
session's 15.63.
* Spot gold XAU= at $1,147.20 an ounce, against the
previous session in New York at $1,156.90.
* COMEX estimated 10 a.m. volume at 124,595 lots.
* London's afternoon gold fix XAUFIX= at $1,146.75 an
ounce.
SILVER
* March silver SIH0 down 40.5 cents, or 2.2 percent, at
$17.955 an ounce, tracking gold's weakness.
* Ranged from $17.770 to $18.385.
* COMEX estimated 10 a.m. volume at 18,559 lots.
* Spot silver XAG= was at $17.90, against $18.16 in the
previous session in New York.
* London silver fix XAGFIX= at $18.11.
PLATINUM
* January platinum PLF0 down 90 cents at $1,443.70 an
ounce as investors in platinum group metals look for a firm
direction after recent weakness.
* Spot platinum XPT= at $1,436 an ounce.
PALLADIUM
* March palladium PAH0 up $1.25 at $376.50 an ounce on
bargain hunting.
* Spot palladium XPD= at $372 an ounce.
Prices at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT)
Last Change Pct 2008 YTD
Chg Close % Chg
US gold GCG0 1148.40 -15.60 -1.3 884.30 29.9
US silver SIH0 17.955 -0.405 -2.2 11.295 59.0
US platinum PLF0 1443.70 -0.90 -0.1 941.50 53.3
US palladium PAH0 376.50 1.25 0.3 188.70 99.5
Gold XAU= 1146.90 -10.00 -0.9 878.20 30.6
Silver XAG= 17.90 -0.26 -1.4 11.30 58.4
Platinum XPT= 1438.50 0.00 0.0 924.50 55.6
Palladium XPD= 372.00 1.00 0.3 184.50 101.6
Gold Fix XAUFIX= 1146.75 -17.50 -1.5 836.50 37.1
Silver Fix XAGFIX= 18.11 7.00 0.4 14.76 22.7
Platinum Fix XPTFIX= 1439.00 16.00 1.1 1529.00 -5.9
Palladium Fix XPDFIX= 374.00 3.00 0.8 365.00 2.5
(Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by Walter Bagley)
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN0838163520091208
Copper Little Changed
Unemployment Drop Helps Demand Outlook
By Bloomberg News
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Copper was little changed after gaining as much as 0.4 percent as a decline in the U.S. unemployment rate signaled that an economic recovery was lifting the labor market out of the worst slump since World War II.
Payrolls declined by 11,000, figures from the Labor Department showed Dec. 4 in Washington, compared with the median forecast for a 125,000 decline in a Bloomberg News survey of 82 economists. The jobless rate fell to 10 percent.
“The better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data fueled optimism in the market that the U.S. economy is indeed recovering, which may help metals demand,” said Wang Lei, analyst at Haitong Futures Co. The metal used in construction and automobiles was also supported by a 0.2 percent decline in the dollar against the euro today, he said.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained to $7,070 a metric ton before trading at $7,038 a ton at 1:03 p.m. Singapore time. March-delivery copper on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 0.8 percent to $3.2105 a pound.
March-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.5 percent to 55,660 yuan ($8,151) a ton. The metal rallied to 56,170 yuan on Dec. 3, the highest level since Sept. 5, 2008.
Eleven of 19 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg last week, or 58 percent, said copper would gain this week after stronger Chinese, U.S. and European manufacturing figures indicated recovering demand for industrial metals. Eight predicted lower prices.
Copper inventories gained in the LME and Shanghai to 446,075 tons and 104,710 tons last week, respectively, adding pressure to the market in the short term, Wang said.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell 0.5 percent to $2,138 a ton, zinc declined 0.2 percent to $2,365 a ton and lead dropped 0.5 percent to $2,354 a ton. Nickel was little changed at $16,005 a ton, while tin lost 0.5 percent to $15,200 a ton.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCl1bGoCiemo
Silver drops as Gold Heads
for Biggest Two-Day Slump Since October on Dollar
By Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures fell, heading for the biggest two-session drop since October 2008, after the dollar’s rebound curbed the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset.
The dollar climbed to a one-month high against the euro. On Dec. 4, gold tumbled 4 percent, the most in a year, after surging to a record $1,227.50 an ounce in the previous session. Before today, the metal climbed 32 percent this year, poised for a ninth straight annual gain.
“The dollar is the prime motivator for gold’s decline,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “I don’t think it’s over for gold, but it’s the end of the year, and people are taking profits.”
Gold futures for February delivery fell $26.10, or 2.2 percent, to $1,143.40 at 11:36 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would mark the biggest two-session drop since Oct. 23, 2008.
The rally this year has outpaced returns in global equities and bonds.
“The market was extremely long, and it could very well be that we see more pressure on the downside,” said Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva.
Gold will resume a climb to $1,300 next year, Bob Takai, the general manager of financial services at Sumitomo Corp., said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. The current drop is “not a big surprise,” he said.
“We advise selling into rallies” as prices approach $1,200, “probably our new strategy into year-end,” Walter de Wet, a Standard Bank Ltd. analyst in London, said today in a report. The bank had recommended buying on dips since August.
Trend ‘Intact’
“We still see the longer-term bull trend for gold intact in 2010,” he said.
The metal may rise to $1,250 to $1,300 in “coming months,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report today. Credit Suisse said gold may drop to $900 to $1,000 by the end of the first quarter before rallying to $1,100 to $1,200 by the same time a year later.
The dollar has slumped this year as the Federal Reserve kept its interest rate close to zero percent since December 2008 to revive lending after the worst financial crisis since World War II. Buying from funds, individual investors and central banks drove gold higher.
Futures traders see a 3.2 percent chance that the Fed may lift its benchmark rate to 0.5 percent in January, while the probability of an increase in March has climbed to 12 percent from 10 percent a week ago.
Silver futures for March delivery fell 55.5 cents, or 3 percent, to $17.965 an ounce in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSdh8tKqhMEM
Copper Takes it on the chin, Drops From 14-Month High as Dollar Rally Curtails Demand
By Millie Munshi
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell from the highest price in more than 14 months as a stronger dollar slashed demand from traders who buy commodities as alternative investments.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, gained as much as 1.6 percent after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate fell. A quicker U.S. recovery may let the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next year, analysts said. Copper prices have more than doubled in 2009 as record-low borrowing costs and rising government debt weakened the dollar.
“With the dollar up so big today, it’s hurting all the commodities,” said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis.
Copper futures for March delivery slipped 0.75 cent, or 0.2 percent, to $3.2375 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, paring the week’s gain to 3.6 percent. Earlier, the most-active contract reached $3.275, the highest price since September 2008.
Employers cut 11,000 jobs last month, government data showed today. Economist estimates ranged from declines of 30,000 to 180,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 10 percent from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October. The U.S. is the world’s largest metal user after China.
Copper prices rose earlier on anticipation that the global economic recovery will increase demand.
Demand Signal
“People are seeing this jobs number as an uptick in business activity,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “Copper is benefiting from the idea that this could bring some additional usage from the industrial sector.”
Most energy prices also reversed gains as the dollar rallied, and Treasury securities fell.
“Everything is moving together because of the dollar right now,” Capitol Commodity’s Cohen said. “That’s the focus.”
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months fell $40, or 0.6 percent, to $7,040 a metric ton ($3.19 a pound). Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum and tin prices rose, while lead, nickel and zinc declined.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aE7npybq1f1I
Gold Turns Red - Gold Falls Most in a Year as Dollar Rally Spurs Investor Sales
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold dropped the most in a year as a rising dollar prompted some investors to sell bullion on the heels of a rally to an all-time high.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, rose as much as 1.6 percent after a government report showed U.S. employers cut fewer jobs last month than forecast. Gold futures fell as much as 5.9 percent from a record of $1,227.50 an ounce, set yesterday in New York.
“So many people have piled into gold, so this pop in the dollar is freaking people out,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. “The dollar is rocking and gold is getting its teeth kicked in.”
Gold futures for February delivery fell $48.80, or 4 percent, to $1,169.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Dec. 1, 2008. The metal slid 0.5 percent this week, halting a month-long rally.
In London, gold for immediate delivery dropped $48.30, or 4 percent, to $1,159.30 an ounce at 7:35 p.m. local time. Yesterday, the spot price reached a record $1,226.56.
Gold was today’s biggest loser among commodities. The plunge spurred sales of gold stocks. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index of 16 mining companies dropped as much as 7.3 percent, led by Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s biggest producer. Before today, the index climbed 55 percent this year.
Stocks Drop
Barrick fell as much as 10 percent in Toronto Stock Exchange trading, almost eliminating this year’s gain.
Detour Gold Corp., a Canadian miner, sank as much as 10 percent in Toronto. Before today, the shares more than doubled.
Hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson, who plans to start a gold fund next month investing in mining companies and bullion- related derivatives, held 10.3 million shares, or about 15 percent of Toronto-based Detour as of Oct. 31, according to a regulatory filing.
Losses accelerated after the Labor Department in Washington released figures today showing employers cut the fewest jobs in a month since the recession began. The nation’s jobless rate fell to 10 percent in November, dropping from a 26-year high in October.
“Gold is going to remain vulnerable to these sell-offs,” Zeman said. “The dollar is rocketing higher because economic recovery will eventually lead to rate hikes.”
Dollar Decline
The dollar weakened this year as the Federal Reserve kept benchmark U.S. interest rates near zero percent since December 2008 in a bid to revive lending after the worst financial crisis since World War II. Before today, the dollar index sank 8.2 percent while gold rallied 38 percent.
“Not only is speculative length in gold at a record high, history shows U.S. dollar losses in December will be recouped in the first four weeks of the new year,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts said today in a report.
Gold’s rally pushed its 14-day relative strength index, a gauge watched by some investors as an indicator of future direction, to 83.5 yesterday. The index fell below 60 today. Some analysts and investors who use price charts view a reading of more than 70 as a signal that a decline is imminent.
“Gold is going to fall under its own weight,” said Tom Hartmann, an analyst with AltaVista Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. “There aren’t a lot of people out there who have been short on gold.”
Price Outlook
Bullion will gain next week, according to 19 of 24 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before today. Five forecast lower prices.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday raised its 12-month gold forecast to $1,350 an ounce, from a previous estimate of $960. The metal will average $1,265 an ounce next year, the New York- based bank said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if people see this as a bargain- buying opportunity,” LaSalle’s Zeman said.
The metal has rallied on news that central banks including India and Russia increased their gold holdings and on speculation that governments, the biggest bullion holders, will buy more.
“It is a bull market, and in bull markets one buys weakness when weakness avails itself,” economist Dennis Gartman told clients in his Gartman Letter today. He said he’d buy if the metal trades below $1,200 by a few dollars.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, increased for a fourth straight day, adding 0.3 metric ton to 1,131.49 tons yesterday, according to the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
Among other precious metals in New York, silver futures for March delivery fell 60.8 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $18.52 an ounce, paring the week’s gain for the most-active contract to 1 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSceNCXXDIiY
Lead, tin and zinc dropped as Copper Drops From 14-Month High on Speculation Demand Will Slip
By Millie Munshi and Anna Stablum
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell from the highest price in 14 months after a report showed U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted last month, spurring speculation that the global economy will be slow to rebound.
An index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the U.S. economy, fell to 48.7, indicating a contraction in November, the Institute for Supply Management said today. Economists had forecast expansion. Copper gained 7.5 percent last month as a weakening dollar boosted demand for commodities as alternative investments.
“The copper price is far outpacing where demand really is,” said Matthew Zeman, a LaSalle Futures Group trader in Chicago. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see it continue to drop.”
Copper for March delivery fell 1.35 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $3.245 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Earlier, the most-active contract reached $3.2745, the highest price since Sept. 23, 2008.
Inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange increased for a 23rd day, reaching the largest amount since April.
Shipments into China, the world’s biggest copper user, declined in October for the third time in four months. Futures have more than doubled this year as China’s imports climbed to a record in the first half.
Growth Outlook
Globally, “it is unclear whether growth will be strong enough to offset slowing Chinese offtake,” Fraser Phillips, an RBC Capital Markets analyst in Toronto, said today in a report.
Copper-mining companies will struggle to meet demand as China’s appetite for the metal rises, according to Xstrata Plc, the world’s fourth-biggest copper supplier.
“We’re seeing real consumption growth in China,” Charlie Sartain, the chief executive officer of Xstrata’s copper unit, said today in London. “That gives us confidence about the market.”
On the LME, copper for delivery in three months fell $45, or 0.6 percent, to $7,080 a metric ton ($3.21 a pound). Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, nickel, aluminum, lead, tin and zinc dropped.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ap9jTyswfFaM
Gold rose to a record for a third straight day, before paring gains
By Pham-Duy Nguyen and Nicholas Larkin
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record for a third straight day, before paring gains, as a weakening dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.
Gold futures touched $1,227.50 an ounce in New York, the highest ever, as the dollar fell as much as 0.6 percent against the euro. Bullion is up 38 percent this year, heading for a ninth straight annual gain.
“Momentum is very positive for gold,” said Eliane Tanner, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “Weakness in the dollar is expected to go on until the end of the year. Gold could have a strong year-end rally.”
Gold futures for February delivery rose $5.30, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $1,218.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. Gold for immediate delivery touched a record $1,226.56 earlier and traded up $1.60, or 0.1 percent, at $1,217.30 an ounce at 7:54 p.m. in London.
Bullion may rise to $1,350 an ounce in 2010 and trade as high as $1,500 within two years because of the declining dollar and renewed investment demand, said Richard O’Brien, the chief executive officer of Newmont Mining Corp., the biggest U.S. gold producer.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its 12-month gold forecast to $1,350 an ounce, from a previous estimate of $960. The metal will average $1,265 an ounce next year, the New York-based bank said today in a report.
“We expect the low U.S. real interest-rate environment to continue to provide strong support for gold prices in 2010 and 2011,” Goldman analysts said in the report.
Price Outlook
Standard Chartered Plc also raised its forecast, projecting an average price of $1,150 in 2010 and $1,300 in 2011. Bullion may reach $1,300 an ounce next year, UBS AG said.
The dollar has declined as the Federal Reserve kept benchmark U.S. interest rates near zero percent since December 2008 in a bid to revive lending after the worst financial crisis since World War II.
Gold futures pared gains after the Fed removed $180 billion from the financial system to test a method of withdrawing some of the $1 trillion in monetary stimulus it has pumped into the economy. The Fed has described the test as “a matter of prudent advance planning” and not a change in policy.
“The question during this rally has always been, how do they get the liquidity out of the system?” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “While they’re not able to act just yet, they want to remind people that they’re not going to be an idle participant. They’re not going to wait until the very end.”
Sign of Decline
Gold’s rally has pushed its 14-day relative strength index above the level of 70 since Nov. 13, a signal that prices are poised to drop.
Hu Xiaolian, a deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China, said the price of gold is at a very high level, Apple Daily reported today. The central bank will be wary of investments in “bubble” assets, the Hong Kong newspaper cited Hu as saying at an event in Taipei.
“Commodity markets have been all gold, all the time, as if nothing else seems to matter,” economist Dennis Gartman told clients in his Gartman Letter today. Gartman said a “bubble” was forming and “only the well capitalized can or should be involved.”
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, increased for a third day, adding 0.6 metric ton to 1,131.21 tons as of yesterday, according to the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings reached a record 1,134 tons on June 1.
Silver futures for March delivery fell 19.7 cents, or 1 percent, to $19.128 an ounce in New York, after touching $19.50, the highest price for a most-active contract since July 2008.
Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month silver forecast to $22.50 an ounce, from $16 previously.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaxPPOEV1Ncw
Copper Reverses Rally to 14-Month High as Dollar Stems Decline
By Glenys Sim
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped for the first time in four days in Asia, reversing a rally to the highest level in more than 14 months, as some investors sold the metal to lock in gains and as the dollar’s decline paused.
The metal used in construction and automobiles rose to $7,101 a metric ton, the highest price since Sept. 23, 2008, as the dollar traded near a 16-month low against the euro.
“With the strong rally we’ve been seeing, there’s bound to be some profit taking,” Li Jingyuan, an analyst at Haifu Futures Co., said today from Shanghai.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange traded little changed at $7,070 at 3:03 p.m. in Singapore, after falling by as much as 0.7 percent earlier.
The March-delivery contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 0.2 percent to $3.2245 a pound. Earlier the contract climbed as much as 0.4 percent to $3.2450 a pound the highest price for a most-active contract since Sept. 23, 2008.
March-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained as much as 1.6 percent to 55,850 yuan ($8,181) a ton, the highest level since Sept. 8 2008, before ending the day up 1.2 percent at 55,630 yuan.
“The general trend is still for higher prices, and this will continue to be supported by a weaker dollar,” said Li.
Copper has more than doubled this year while the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against six major currencies, has declined 8.4 percent as investors bought raw materials as an alternative to a declining U.S. currency. Commodity funds pulled in more than $1 billion in investments for a second straight week, pushing inflows for the year to $14.6 billion, according to EPFR Global.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ad_5YsxrcxYA
Gold May Rise as High as $1,600 as Demand Builds, New City Says
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, heading for its biggest annual gain in 30 years, may rise as high as $1,600 an ounce in coming months as near-zero U.S. interest rates fuel demand, said John Wong, portfolio manager at New City Investment Managers Ltd.
The precious metal is likely to climb at least to $1,300 an ounce in the next three to six months, Wong said today at a press briefing in London. In March he forecast prices would advance as high as $1,250 this year. Bullion for immediate delivery rose as high as a record $1,217.23 today.
“If interest rates stay near zero, the cost of carrying gold in dollar terms is low,” said Wong, who co-manages the Golden Prospect Precious Metals Ltd. fund. Bullion has more room to climb than other raw materials because its gains this year have been smaller, he said.
Spot gold has added 37 percent this year, while palladium, lead and copper have more than doubled and crude oil is up 75 percent. Interest-rate futures show a 10 percent chance, up from 7 percent a week ago, that Federal Reserve policy makers will raise the target for the Fed funds rate to 0.5 percent when they meet in March.
Bullion gained 13 percent in November, the biggest monthly climb in a year, helped by news of purchases by central banks in India and other nations. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators have increased their bets on higher prices for gold futures to the most since at least 1993, according to a report yesterday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Stoking Speculation?
Fed officials acknowledged this month that the record-low borrowing costs might fuel “excessive” speculation in financial markets and possibly dislodge expectations for low inflation. Gold’s rally has pushed its 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of whether a commodity is overbought or oversold, to 80.41, above the level of 70 viewed by some investors and analysts who scrutinize technical charts as signaling a drop.
“Bullish as I am on gold, my peers are talking about selling because prices are rising too far, too quickly,” said Wong. The metal may fall by a “minor” amount, he said.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators had a net- long position of 262,331 contracts as of Nov. 24, the CFTC figures show, up 11 percent from a week earlier. The Fed funds target is now zero to 0.25 percent.
Golden Prospect, listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Bulletin Board, invests in bullion producers and exchange-traded products. The fund has more than doubled this year, raising its market value to 21.7 million pounds ($36 million). Vancouver-based Silver Wheaton Corp. was its largest holding as of Oct. 31, according to a fact sheet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_EHD3I3A1is
Silver, Lead and Zinc Advance, Copper Rises for a Third Day in London on Chinese Manufacturing
By Anna Stablum
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a third day in London as manufacturing in China, the world’s biggest user, expanded at the fastest pace in five years and the dollar slid further.
A purchasing managers’ index released by HSBC Holdings Plc rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.7 last month from 55.4. Prices also gained before a report that may show manufacturing in the U.S., the second-largest copper consumer, increased for a fourth month in November. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against six currencies, fell for a second day.
“If we had doubts why the Chinese were buying commodities, we shouldn’t any longer,” John Meyer, head of research at Fairfax IS in London, said by phone. “It is fundamentally good news for commodities.”
Copper for three-month delivery rose $90, or 1.3 percent, to $7,020 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange at 10:07 a.m. local time. The metal has advanced 2.4 percent this week. Copper for March delivery climbed 1 percent to $3.2085 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.
The dollar index lost as much as 0.5 percent, making metals priced in the currency cheaper in terms of other monies. The gauge has slid 8.3 percent this year, helping copper to more than double along with record first-half imports into China and expectations of a rebound from the global recession.
Dubai Debt Talks
Prices also rose as Dubai began talks with banks to restructure its debt, helping to ease concern about a potential default that sent financial markets lower at the end of last week. Three-month copper slid the most in almost four weeks on Nov. 26.
“The debt issues in Dubai are not a secret,” Fairfax’s Meyer said, adding that investors were not “overly concerned.”
The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 55 from October’s three-year high of 55.7, according to the median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The figures are due at 3 p.m. London time.
Inventories of copper monitored by the LME climbed for a 21st day, gaining 0.6 percent to 441,000 tons, according to a daily exchange report. That was the highest since April 22.
Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum rose 1.3 percent to $2,085 a ton. Demand for the lightweight metal in China, the biggest consumer, probably will rise next year, Jorge Vazquez, an analyst at Laredo, Texas-based researcher Harbor Intelligence, said in an e-mailed report.
China’s total net imports of aluminum are expected to rise above 4 million tons next year from an estimated 3.9 million tons this year when scrap is included, he said. Net imports of so-called primary metal probably will drop to 1.2 million tons from an estimated 1.4 million tons this year, he said.
Nickel was little changed at $16,395 a ton. Stockpiles in LME-monitored warehouses climbed 2.5 percent to 140,646 tons, the highest since January 1995.
Lead gained 2.1 percent to $2,395 a ton, and zinc advanced 1 percent to $2,344 a ton. Tin fell 0.7 percent to $15,100 a ton.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=af9wp1iHkEto
Gold sets new all time record today, Tops $1,200 as Dollar Declines; Silver, Palladium Jump
By Claudia Carpenter and Pham-Duy Nguyen
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices topped $1,200 an ounce for the first time as the slumping dollar spurred investor demand for an inflation hedge. Silver and palladium futures jumped to 16-month highs.
Precious metals climbed as the dollar fell against a basket of currencies, partly because Dubai’s credit risk declined. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose to a five- week high. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock Advisors LLC increased their gold assets in the third quarter, U.S. filings show.
“There is investment demand for gold from everywhere,” said Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. “The dollar has pushed gold to new highs. Gold is in an uptrend, and there is no sign that the trend will stop.”
Gold futures for February delivery rose $17.90, or 1.5 percent, to $1,200.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the metal reached a record $1,204.
Silver futures for March delivery jumped 68.5 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $19.21 an ounce in New York. Earlier, the metal reached $19.30, the highest price for a most-active contract since July 15, 2008.
Palladium soared $17.75, or 4.8 percent, to $383.95 an ounce in New York. Earlier, the price reached $388.60, the highest level since July 29, 2008.
Gold has advanced 36 percent this year, more than the MSCI World Index of shares and U.S. Treasuries. The metal is headed for the biggest annual gain since 1979.
Gold ETF
Yesterday, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, increased to the highest since June 24.
Morgan Stanley’s SPDR holdings increased 3.5 million shares to 6.5 million as of Sept. 30. BlackRock’s holdings soared 5.9 million shares to 6.4 million. Soros Fund Management LLC also bought shares in the period.
Gold traded in euros, pounds and Swiss francs climbed to all-time highs on Nov. 27.
“Gold is the international currency,” Lesh said.
The Federal Reserve has kept benchmark interest rates close to zero percent since December in a bid to revive lending after the worst financial crisis since World War II. The U.S. government has boosted spending to combat the recession, pushing the nation’s marketable debt to more than $6.9 trillion.
Inflation Concern
“With interest rates so low and a climbing deficit, there’s real fear that inflation will be a salient problem,” said Michael Pento, the chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. In January, when gold slipped below $850, Pento predicted gold would reach $1,200 by year-end. “It’s hard to make a bearish case for gold now,” he said on Nov. 25.
The euro rose to $1.511 against the greenback at 2 p.m. New York time. Should the euro reach $1.60, gold will soar to $1,400, said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago.
Demand for bullion also has increased among governments. Central banks in India and Mauritius bought the metal from the International Monetary Fund. China and Russia also added to their holdings.
Concern over Iran’s nuclear program may be another reason for gold’s advance, Michael Guido, Macquarie Capital USA Inc.’s hedge-fund sales director in New York, said yesterday in a note.
The U.S., the U.K. and other European allies condemned Iran’s plan to expand its nuclear program in defiance of United Nations sanctions. Some investors buy gold as a haven in times of escalating political tensions.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position, or bets on higher gold futures, to the most since at least 1993, according to a report yesterday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The net-long position was 262,331 contracts as of Nov. 24, up 11 percent from a week earlier.
Platinum futures for January delivery climbed $26.40, or 1.8 percent to $1,486.60 an ounce in New York. The price reached $1,494.80, the highest level since Sept. 2, 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXnLiQyhlcTY
Silver futures slip, Gold Declines as Rally to Record Encourages Investors (edit - suckers) to Sell
By Claudia Carpenter
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell, narrowing this month’s gains, on investor sales following a rally to a record.
Spot gold’s 14-day relative-strength index has topped 70 since Nov. 13, a sign that prices may drop. Holdings in 16 exchange-traded gold products tracked by Barclays Capital fell 0.3 metric ton on Nov. 27, the first decline since Nov. 20.
“It’s very small compared to drops in the past,” said Suki Cooper, a Barclays analyst in London. “This is just a little profit taking.”
Gold futures for February delivery dropped $1.70, or 0.1 percent, to $1,173.80 an ounce at 11:44 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, down from the all-time high of $1,196.80 on Nov. 27. Prices are up 13 percent this month, heading for the biggest monthly gain in a year.
In London, gold for immediate delivery fell $4.60, or 0.4 percent, to $1,173.03 an ounce.
Spot gold slid as much as 4.2 percent on Nov. 27 after Dubai World sought to delay some debt payments, rattling markets from Tokyo to New York. Some investors had to sell gold to cover potential margin calls related to equity declines, according to David Wilson, a Societe Generale SA analyst in London.
“We did see a lot of money leave the market” last week, said Manqoba Madinane, an analyst at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in Johannesburg. “Some of it is back, but not all of it. I think we have a situation where people are buying as soon as the metal moves lower.”
The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates pledged to support the nation’s banks and the branches of international lenders in the Persian Gulf country. The dollar fell against the euro today after rising in the two previous sessions. Gold usually gains when the dollar weakens.
Flight to Safety
“If we do see more flight to safety to the U.S. dollar, then we could see commodity prices under some pressure,” said Toby Hassall, an analyst with CWA Global Markets in Sydney.
Gold, up 33 percent this year, is set for a ninth annual gain as central banks, pension funds and individual buyers purchase precious metals as a hedge against declines in the dollar and possible inflation. UBS AG recommended investors increase commodity allocations for 2010.
A drop in prices is an opportunity to buy, said Matt Zeman, a metals trader with LaSalle Futures Group Inc. in Chicago.
“Until we see some action with the dollar, the path of least resistance for gold continues to be higher,” Zeman said.
The dollar fell as much as 0.7 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies today before erasing the decline.
Silver futures for March delivery slipped 0.5 cent to $18.33 an ounce in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVfLhcGIVX_s
Good catch Gold, you beat me to the punch LoL!
Coronado drills 45 ft of 0.74 oz/t Au at Madison
2009-11-30 13:25 ET - News Release
Mr. Gene Larabie reports
CORONADO RESOURCES LTD. - NOVEMBER UPDATE: FIRST DRILL RESULTS INTERSECT HIGH GRADE GOLD EXTENSION
Coronado Resources Ltd. continues its underground drill program on its wholly owned Madison gold-copper property near Butte, Mont. The results from the recent drill holes confirm a downward extension of the high-grade gold system beyond the current underground workings. Improving on the results announced in Stockwatch at the end of October, Coronado's continuing drill program yielded several impressive intercepts, including 45 feet of 0.741 ounce per ton gold (25.44 grams per tonne gold).
2009 MADISON DRILL SUMMARY
Drill Hole From (feet) To (feet) Interval Au oz/t Ag oz/t Cu %
No. (feet)
09-U1 12.50 42.50 30.00 0.313
09-U1 incl. 12.50 27.50 15.00 0.528
09-U2 22.00 58.00 36.00 0.4685 1.580 1.960
09-U2 incl. 26.50 44.00 17.50 0.607 0.968 1.079
09-U3 25.00 70.00 45.00 0.741 1.204 1.088
09-U4 48.00 73.00 25.00 0.588 3.897 5.721
The current drill program is designed to expand the gold zones immediately below the current underground workings. This level previously encountered gold mineralization over 100 feet long, up to 20 feet wide and extending upward for 30 feet, which yielded 2,327 tons of 0.57 ounce per ton gold. Underground diamond drilling continues and results will be announced in Stockwatch as they are made available.
The company's president, Gene Larabie, reports: "Coronado's ongoing drill program at the Madison project has produced excellent results to date. The company will be drilling a number of targets in the coming months as we are now in a position to drill the system deeper from the newly developed underground. Sales of Coronado's gold and copper shipments are expected to fund the exploration drill program and further mine development, thus preventing further unneeded dilution to our shareholders. I continue to review other quality production or quick-to-production mining opportunities in the local and international arena."
We seek Safe Harbor.
Commodity Trade Alert
Articles and News of Interest for Commodity Investors and Traders
« Paolo Pellegrini, PSQR, Commodities Will Out-Perform, US Dollar is a Fiat Currency and May Collapse
R[b]eport: Germany’s Bundesbank Set to Announce Major Gold Purchase, India and China to Announce Additional Purchases of Gold
(Russia Today) Interviewed today by the Russia Today channel about problems in the world financial system, international journalist Max Keiser remarked that sources at Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, have told him that the Bundesbank is about to join other central banks in announcing gold purchases. Germany will be annoucing a new gold purchase, while China and India will be annoucning additional purchases with more countries likely to follow suit. Keiser also notes that the US dollar is no longer the “safe haven” it has been in the past, noting that any upticks are small and short-lived. He attributes these upticks only to its legacy as a reserve currency. You can watch the interview here:
Related:
Gold at $10,000 an ounce? 10 reasons it could happen within the next 12 months…
Gold breaks $1,195 ounce…It’s not just India or China…everybody is looking at how much money they will invest in gold
The Case for Gold in One Simple Paragraph – Update
Standard Chartered says there are no sellers of Gold right now, only buyers
Back to the Poorhouse for China: Relatively Miniscule Amount of Gold and Facing Huge Losses on Dollar, Ex-PBOC Adviser
How much longer can gold rise? Is it in a bubble? Is the trade too crowded?
Is Gold Really in a Bubble? Gold vs S&P 500 Chart
Gold Scarcity:
World Gold Supply Runs Out, Barrick Shuts Hedge Book, Gold Prices to Skyrocket now that “Peak Gold” has been reached
On Central banks bailing out of the dollar and buying gold:
India to Buy Remaining Hoard of IMF Gold as Central Banks Scramble to Exit Fiat Currency
Goldman Sachs: Central Banks are becoming Net Buyers of Gold
Russia, India, Sri Lanka beat China to the Punch, Bailing on US Dollar and Buying Gold…Physical Gold Scarce
Gold ends up on continued Central Bank interest, near record…
Now Comes Russia: Ditching the Dollar and Buying Gold…the Gold Grab is on
Gold Grab Continues Sri Lanka Buying Gold ‘To Diversify Reserves’
Contemplating India’s Gold Purchase, Look for China to Come in Next
The Great Gold Grab Continues: India beats China to the Punch and Buys IMF Gold to Boost Reserves as Dollar Drops
Gold shines as central banks scorn greenback
Tiny Mauritius Next Country to Buy Gold to Diversfy out of Fiat Currency
Russia Adds 15 Tons of Gold in October to Add 30 More Tons by Year End
On the Dollar:
The Demise of the Dollar. What the Greatest Investors in the World Say. The Definitive Guide on the Race to Debase Currencies, Dollar Devaluation and Gold
This entry was posted on Friday, November 27th, 2009 at 8:33 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Zinc drops 5.3% Copper Drops From 14-Month High as Equities Fall, Dollar Gains
By Jae Hur
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper tumbled in Shanghai and London, extending a retreat from the highest level in more than 14 months, on speculation rising stockpiles, tumbling equities and a rebound in the dollar may signal slower demand.
Asian equities fell, tracking European stocks that plunged the most in seven months yesterday on concern Dubai’s proposal to delay debt payments may trigger the biggest sovereign default since 2001. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose to the highest level since April 23 yesterday. The Dollar Index of the greenback against six currencies rose from a 15-month low.
“A rebound in the dollar sent copper prices lower,” said Cai Luoyi, an analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co. “There’s a consensus in the market that over the long run the dollar will trend lower, and copper prices will continue to rise on expectations of a weaker dollar, inflation and rising demand.”
February-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost as much as 3.5 percent to 53,390 yuan ($7,819) a ton and closed at 53,700 yuan. The price touched 55,900 yuan yesterday, the highest intraday level since Sept. 12, 2008.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 2.6 percent to $6,645 a ton at 4:53 p.m. Tokyo time, reversing an earlier 0.6 percent gain. The metal lost 2.4 percent yesterday after touching $7,060 a ton, the highest since Sept. 24 last year.
‘Dollar Index’
The Dollar Index rallied as much as 1 percent, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment, and was up 0.9 percent at 75.524 at 4:47 p.m. in Tokyo. Crude oil was down 5.1 percent at $73.98 a barrel.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell 1.8 percent to $1,972 a ton, lead plunged 7.7 percent to $2,161 a ton, and nickel was 4.4 percent down at $15,850 a ton. Zinc dropped 5.3 percent to $2,136 a ton and tin lost 1.7 percent to $14,725 a ton as of 4:57 p.m. in Tokyo.
China, the world’s largest aluminum consumer, may impose a tax on the metal after imports surged and pressured domestic producers, the National Development and Reform Commission said.
The rising imports led to “lots of pressure” on the domestic market, Yu Dongming, a director at the industry coordination department of China’s top economic planner said at a conference in Kunming today. The country doesn’t have an import tax on the metal currently.
Chinese purchases of aluminum were 13 times higher this year than in 2008 as traders and manufacturers bought the metal in anticipation of demand from the government’s $586 billion stimulus spending. The country’s imports of aluminum jumped to 1.4 million tons in the first ten months.
In Japan, shipments of aluminum rolled products dropped at the slowest pace in a year in October as an economic recovery improved demand for the metal from carmakers and machinery companies. Supplies to the domestic and export markets fell 14 percent to 165,480 tons from 193,157 tons a year earlier, the Japan Aluminium Association said today.
By Jae Hur
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper tumbled in Shanghai and London, extending a retreat from the highest level in more than 14 months, on speculation rising stockpiles, tumbling equities and a rebound in the dollar may signal slower demand.
Asian equities fell, tracking European stocks that plunged the most in seven months yesterday on concern Dubai’s proposal to delay debt payments may trigger the biggest sovereign default since 2001. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose to the highest level since April 23 yesterday. The Dollar Index of the greenback against six currencies rose from a 15-month low.
“A rebound in the dollar sent copper prices lower,” said Cai Luoyi, an analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co. “There’s a consensus in the market that over the long run the dollar will trend lower, and copper prices will continue to rise on expectations of a weaker dollar, inflation and rising demand.”
February-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost as much as 3.5 percent to 53,390 yuan ($7,819) a ton and closed at 53,700 yuan. The price touched 55,900 yuan yesterday, the highest intraday level since Sept. 12, 2008.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 2.6 percent to $6,645 a ton at 4:53 p.m. Tokyo time, reversing an earlier 0.6 percent gain. The metal lost 2.4 percent yesterday after touching $7,060 a ton, the highest since Sept. 24 last year.
‘Dollar Index’
The Dollar Index rallied as much as 1 percent, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment, and was up 0.9 percent at 75.524 at 4:47 p.m. in Tokyo. Crude oil was down 5.1 percent at $73.98 a barrel.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell 1.8 percent to $1,972 a ton, lead plunged 7.7 percent to $2,161 a ton, and nickel was 4.4 percent down at $15,850 a ton. Zinc dropped 5.3 percent to $2,136 a ton and tin lost 1.7 percent to $14,725 a ton as of 4:57 p.m. in Tokyo.
China, the world’s largest aluminum consumer, may impose a tax on the metal after imports surged and pressured domestic producers, the National Development and Reform Commission said.
The rising imports led to “lots of pressure” on the domestic market, Yu Dongming, a director at the industry coordination department of China’s top economic planner said at a conference in Kunming today. The country doesn’t have an import tax on the metal currently.
Chinese purchases of aluminum were 13 times higher this year than in 2008 as traders and manufacturers bought the metal in anticipation of demand from the government’s $586 billion stimulus spending. The country’s imports of aluminum jumped to 1.4 million tons in the first ten months.
In Japan, shipments of aluminum rolled products dropped at the slowest pace in a year in October as an economic recovery improved demand for the metal from carmakers and machinery companies. Supplies to the domestic and export markets fell 14 percent to 165,480 tons from 193,157 tons a year earlier, the Japan Aluminium Association said today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acx5i1M1mwpo
Dollar Index Extends Gains, Gold Drops in New York, London
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold dropped in New York and London as gains in the dollar damped demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, extended its rebound from a 15-month low after Dubai’s efforts to reschedule its debt rattled investors. Prices of other precious metals, crude oil and most industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange declined. Gold reached a record in London and New York yesterday.
“The market is reacting to the news on Dubai,” said Bernard Sin, head of currency and metals trading at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. “A dollar bounce likely means gold will sell off. People are trying to take profits.”
Futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit slid $9.70, or 0.8 percent, to $1,178.90 an ounce by 11:50 a.m. local time. The metal didn’t settle yesterday because of a public holiday. Gold for immediate delivery dropped 0.9 percent to $1,177.63 in London.
The metal rose to $1,166.50 in the afternoon “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $1,164.50 in the morning fixing. Spot prices are up 2.3 percent this week, set for a fourth weekly increase.
The dollar index gained as much as 1 percent as Dubai World, the government investment company with $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayment on debt. The currency measure is down 7.7 percent this year.
Buying Opportunity
Gold’s drop today may be an opportunity for buyers, analysts including Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC’s Janet Kong and Standard Bank Ltd.’s Walter de Wet said.
Gold futures, up 33 percent this year, are set for a ninth annual gain as central banks, pension funds and individual buyers seek to protect their assets from potential currency debasement and inflation. Central banks will remain net buyers in the year ahead, for the first time in more than two decades, Standard Chartered Plc said in a report today.
“Central banks’ appetite for gold is currently very strong,” said Stefan Graber, a commodity analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG. “We’re likely to see more central banks stepping up their gold purchases.”
Sri Lanka bought 10 metric tons of gold for about $375 million from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF said on Nov. 25, joining India and Mauritius in buying gold and spurring speculation more central banks will follow suit. Russia’s central bank has also increased its bullion holdings.
Silver for March delivery in New York fell as much as 5.7 percent to $17.72 an ounce, and last traded at $18.425. Platinum for January delivery declined 1.8 percent to $1,453 an ounce.
The metal will probably outperform gold in the year ahead on improving industrial demand and higher production costs, Standard Chartered Plc said. Palladium for March delivery slid as much as 5.9 percent to $352 an ounce, and was last at $368.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqSgCMNXoL04
US Markets closed as gold Falls From Record in London as Dollar Rebound Spurs Sales
By Nicholas Larkin and Gavin Evans
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for the first time this week in London as a stronger dollar prompted investors to sell the metal after it reached a record. Other precious metals slid.
Bullion earlier rose to a record for the third time this week. Sri Lanka bought 10 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund for about $375 million, the IMF said yesterday, following India and Mauritius. The metal slipped after the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from a 15-month low.
“Gold has run into profit-taking” and “is vulnerable to corrections,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said today in a report. “However, with the dollar expected to extend its decline, gold seems certain to challenge the $1,200 level in the very near future, as investment demand remains very strong.”
Gold for immediate delivery dropped $3.42, or 0.3 percent, to $1,188.38 an ounce at 7:39 p.m. in London. That erased a gain to as high as $1,195.13.
Bullion futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit rose 0.4 percent to $1,193.80 an ounce after earlier reaching a record $1,196.80. Yesterday the contract rose for a ninth day, the longest rally since August 1982.
Most U.S. markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Comex floor trading is shut.
Record ‘Fixing’
The metal slipped to $1,182.75 an ounce in the afternoon “fixing” in London from a record $1,183 in the morning fixing. Some mining companies use fixings to sell production.
Sri Lanka’s purchase followed yesterday’s Financial Chronicle report that India, the world’s largest consumer, may add to the 200 tons it bought last month for $6.7 billion from the IMF. Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao declined to comment.
The sale to Sri Lanka was the IMF’s third in recent weeks to a central bank after the Indian transaction and a 2-ton disposal to Mauritius for $71.7 million. The IMF has about 190 tons remaining from the 403.3 tons it said Sept. 18 it would divest. China is “quite a likely” buyer in coming weeks, said Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Australia Bank.
“A lot of central banks want to diversify out of U.S. dollar holdings and replace them with gold,” he said. “You’ve got a lot of added demand that not many people would have expected.”
‘A Good Time to Buy’
Sri Lanka has been “gradually” accumulating the metal in the last seven months, Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal said in an interview in Singapore today. “It’s a good time to buy,” he said.
Russia’s central bank also has bought gold, and Sri Lanka said earlier this month it would keep making purchases. That prompted analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale SA and Barclays Capital to forecast more state purchases. Governments are the biggest bullion holders.
“The market is now convinced that many developing-economy central banks will keep buying bullion from the IMF to diversify their reserves,” Darren Heathcote, an analyst with Investec Bank Ltd., wrote in a report yesterday.
The dollar index gained as much as 1 percent today, its first increase this week, on Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt. The currency usually moves inversely to bullion. The measure has lost 8 percent this year as gold has rallied 35 percent, heading for the biggest annual increase since 1979.
Relative Strength
The rally has pushed immediate-delivery gold’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of whether a commodity or security is overbought or oversold, above 70. Some investors and analysts who follow technical charts view that level as a sign prices may fall. Today’s reading was 81.5.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, increased 5.49 tons to 1,127.86 tons as of Nov. 25, according to the company’s Web site.
The U.S. Mint suspended sales of American Eagle Gold Proof coins because of depleted inventories and will resume “once sufficient inventories of gold-bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand,” it said on its Web site. Sales of American Eagle gold coins jumped to 1.07 million ounces this year through October from 568,000 a year earlier, the site shows.
Among other precious metals for immediate delivery in London, silver slid 1 percent to $18.665 an ounce. Platinum rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,483.80 an ounce, the highest since August 2008, before slipping 1.1 percent to $1,456. Palladium fell 0.7 percent to $370.50 an ounce.
Platinum will average $1,577 an ounce next year, 15 percent more than previously forecast, UBS AG said today in a report, citing increased industrial demand. The bank raised its 2010 palladium estimate by 26 percent to $321 an ounce and its rhodium outlook by 43 percent to $2,366 an ounce. Rhodium traded at $2,800 today, matching yesterday’s 13-month high, according to Johnson Matthey Plc prices on Bloomberg.
ETF Securities Ltd.’s platinum holdings added 0.2 percent to a record 427,576 ounces yesterday, its Web site showed. Palladium assets increased 0.8 percent to a record 629,906 ounces.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aS1GIGJWNdKw
U.S. Mint to halt Gold Coin Sales Citing Low Inventory Level
By Halia Pavliva
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of most American Eagle coins made from precious metals including gold and silver, citing depleted inventories of the metals after sales surged 88 percent in the first 10 months of this year.
Sales will resume “once sufficient inventories of gold- bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand,” the mint said in a statement posted on its Web site. Gold coins affected by the suspension include the American Eagle. The uncirculated versions of the 2009 coins won’t be resumed, the mint said.
No one in the mint’s press office was available to respond to questions after 3 p.m. in Washington.
Platinum coins will be sold beginning next month, the mint said. None have been sold this year, the Web site shows.
Sales of American Eagle gold coins jumped to 1.07 million ounces this year through October, from 568,000 a year earlier, according to the mint’s Web site. This month, the mint indicated it sold an additional 124,000 ounces of the coins.
About 23.41 million ounces of silver coins were sold this year through October, and almost 2.59 million more were sold this month, the Web site shows. Last year, the mint sold about 15.38 million ounces of silver American Eagles through October.
Gold climbed to a record of $1,193.30 an ounce after the market settled today in New York, the highest price ever, as the dollar’s slump deepened and central banks stepped up purchases of the metal as a reserve asset.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVSRZyrItDkE
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CORONADO RESOURCES LTD.
CRD.V (TSX) - CRDAF (OTC/PK)
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http://www.coronadoresourcesltd.com/NewsRelease-Sept10-09.pdf
http://www.coronadoresourcesltd.com/NewsRelease-July16-09.pdf
http://www.coronadoresourcesltd.com/NewsRelease-July08-09.pdf
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Madison Gold/Copper Property, Montana (July '09 update)
Coronado Resources Ltd. Has an option to acquire a 100% interest in six patented and twelve unpatented mineral claims known as the Madison Gold Property. The property is approximately 35 miles southeast of Butte, Montana near the town of Silver Star. The property contains old surface and underground mine workings.
The underground decline has been driven over 1,200 feet at a slope of 15% which was designed to access a high-grade zone of oxide gold to Level I and Level II and to allow access to a high grade Copper zone. The underground develpment also accessed a sulphide gold zone in Level 3. Drill stations have been placed at stages along the decline to provide for additional drilling from underground to further test the limits of the mineralization. The decline is large enough to accomodate ore trucks and underground drill rigs.
A crushing plant, power line, compressor and weigh scale have been installed on site to process the gold and copper mineralization encountered in underground development. The company has made three shipments in early 2008 of oxide gold mineralization to the Golden Sunlight Mine for custom milling. Copper shipments of 1304 tons grading over 20% cu were delivered to China in the Fall of 2008 to produce over 500,000 payable pounds.
In January 2009, the company signed and started shipping sulphide gold mineralization to the Kinross Mill in Washington state. In April and May of 2009, the company shipped over 1,000 tons of copper grading over 24% cu. In July, 2009 the company made a sold shipment of 400 tons grading .045 oz/ton gold.
From the 1880's to the 1950's the Broadway Mine had over 6,000 feet of lateral underground workings from a 1,000 foot shaft that had a vertical depth of 750 feet. Production is estimated at 450,000 tons of ore averaging 0.32 oz. (11.0 g/t) gold. In the 1980’s, an exploration drilling conducted northwest of the main Broadway underground workings. This was above a new zone being mined at the 900 level before the mine was closed in 1952. Drill programs were undertaken to outline a resource with an open pit design using lower grade mineralization cutoffs. The majority of the drill holes only tested the mineralization up to 400 feet in depth.
A Geological Summary Report to 43-101 standards was completed in August 2005. The writer concluded that “targets with relatively high grades of gold and copper exist within contact zones at the Madison Gold Property”. The report recommends exploring for continuation of excellent gold and copper grades seen in some holes and notes that many holes ended in gold or copper mineralization without determining the limits of the zone. The report also recommended conducting geophysics and deeper drilling of the porphyry target. Drill programs were undertaken in 2005 and 2006 to expand the high grade gold and copper zones.
Five holes were completed in 2005 with gold and copper intercepts encountered in all five holes. The most exciting results were intercepts of .380 and .354 oz/ton gold over 49 feet and 54.4 feet in two holes and an intercept of 27 feet of over 41% copper in the last hole. For complete assay results from the program see print flyer.
Drilling in 2006 tested the vertical and eastern extension of the mineralization of Hole C05 - 6. Additional drilling was undertaken to test the limits of other high-grade zones along the mineralized contact. Eight diamond drilling holes were completed in 2006.
True North Property, Ungava Region, Quebec
The Company acquired a 100% interest in 304 mining claims known as the Raglan 1 Property, comprising 30,775 acres, in May 2003. This property is immediately northwest at Falconbridge’s six year old Raglan Mine site and six outlined nickel/copper deposits. The nickel deposits in the Raglan Camp consist of clusters of sulphide lenses.
The Company entered into an agreement with Novawest Resources Inc, whereby Novawest can earn a 70% interest in the property by expending $620,000 over three years in exploration expenditures. Novawest renamed the claim group the True North Property.
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