LNTH (LNTH)

[Chuckles759]

Looks like LNTH is awakening.

Trying to catch it on a bounce. Hopefully a market swing will do the trick.

[Black-Ops]

CYDY has many great contributors.

Study the Big Picture in the post.

Now do your own. Determine what medical problems CYDY has targeted. Research the market size, worldwide and USA.

Research how Big Pharma prices their drugs.

A clue was delivered by Gilead. Their Liver killing Drug chosen as the Standard of Care (SOC) by our vaunted FDA reduces hospital stays by 4 days. Does not do much else that is beneficial but keep in mind the Brotherhood of Liver Removal Doctors lobbied for it to be the SOC. Lets guess a four day stay in a hospital is 20,000$. This is a pure guess on my part.

Gilead drug is priced at 3200$. I have read number estimates of 5 to 15 billion $ in COVID for Gilead.

In an Insurance Companies eyes that's a great deal.

Now compare that to CYDY's Leronlimab / Pro-140. Zero side effects. How many days will the hospital stay be reduced? How many lives will be prolonged. What terrible side effects will be illuminated by CYDY's use for the victims entire remaining years? Use your imagination as to the value.

Now determine total shares including Options and Warrants.

Do not believe anything until you check the latest SEC documents.

Now consider how difficult selling the best drug in the world will be after FDA Approval. Joint venture is mine and others top choice. We have a 50-50 split in HIV. Air-conditioning in Texas

This will be simple. This means that the corporate structure will be lean. Our main expense in the future will be future FDA Trials. A great example is the 22 plus types of Cancers.

Due to this the valuation of X revenues will not value CYDY common shares properly. The old fashioned Price Earnings Ratio (PE) will indicate true value.

Consider that the PE is a beauty contest. The faster the EPS growth the higher the Ratio. The more patent protection the higher the PE.

The greater story catches shareholder attention.

Now go out and do your research. You, the reader, the investor make your decision to Buy, hold , or sell. Knowing the true size of this market is part of the Big Picture. The knowledge will bolster you decision when you read the pure bull of Adam F and his publication STAT.


The PE indicates a far higher value than any Pharma. t

This indicates the simple

Now guess the profit margin. Here I will add whatever other Big Pharma Profit Margins are, this is n

[Chuckles759]

I'm thinking with the potential royalty revenue from CYDY sales of Leronlimab/PRO 140 that LNTH will probably start doing share buybacks and potentially go private. If that's the case, then pps will definitely be going up. I'm buying in for some loooonng term here (3+ years) just for fun.

Posted over at CYDY [small edits]

If I'm interpreting the contract between CYDY and Progenics (now Lantheus Holdings, Inc) then there will need to be royalty payments made quarterly on "net sales" for 10 years. There was reference to patents acquired expiration date in addition to the 10 years, but I think the 10 years will be the timeframe of payments.

My big question is at what the pricing for Leronlimab will be. Since it's going to be the same formulation sold under different trade names, the pricing will probably be unique for each application. Then there's negotiated pricing for US vs non-US sales in addition to negotiated pricing for insurance vs non-insurance...and most likely government vs non-government pricing.

Then there's the negotiated agreements that CytoDyn has made for distribution with American Regent and Vyera that have all sorts of sales clauses/rebates/incentives/etc that I haven't sorted out. So, I've made the grand assumption that end user cost is $750/dose and due to distribution costs through the supply chain that makes CytoDyn's net revenue income per dose is $375 (see below). And this pricing value may change due to volume production costs, inflation, insert-reason-here, etc. But I'm going to go linear with today's best guess of $375.

The whole "cost of goods" that reduces that from CytoDyn's bottom line is an entirely different discussion.

All the figures are based on "net sales". I can only guess what those will be....so...I'll guess.

Since NP said that Leronlimab costs for COVID will be equivalent to Remdesivir, or better, then my guess was about $750 per dose (averaging 4 doses per patient) to come up with a treatment cost of about $3000 versus the Remdesivir's $3120 treatment cost. Since Remdesivir is IV administered I don't know if that cost includes everything surrounding that or just the cost of the drug - I'm going with just drug cost.

Since the 5% royalty payment is for ANY PRO 140/Leronlimab commercial sales then I'm using the entire quantity being delivered from Samsung that NP has communicated several times so far.

2020 1.5M vials (I've heard 1.6M also...not sure of accuracy)
2021 6M vials (??? more wild guessing beyond this point ...but I'm guess at increases each year)
---more guessing begins here due to unknown production limitations---
2022 9M vials
2023 15M vials
2024 20M vials
2025 25M vials
2026 30M vials
2027 30M vials
2028 35M vials
2029 35M vials
2030 40M vials (insert crazy talk here)

Then I'm basing my assumptions on CytoDyn selling all doses at $375 - which is their "net" the royalty is based on.

2020: (1,500,000 * $375) * 5% = $28,125,000
2021: (6,000,000 * $375) * 5% = $112,500,000
----crazy guessing continues below---
2022: (9,000,000 * $375) * 5% = $168,750,000
2023: (15,000,000) * $375) * 5% = $281,250,000
2024: (20,000,000) * $375) * 5% = $375,000,000
2025: (25,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $468,750,000
2026: (30,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $562,500,000
2027: (30,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $562,500,000
2028: (35,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $656,250,000
2029: (35,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $656,250,000
2030: (40,500,000) * $375) * 5% = $750,000,000

10 year crazy guess on 5% royalty = $4,621,875,000 (or $4.6B)

[Chuckles759]

This board looks a little stale.

Has anyone been paying attention to the potential of the royalties coming in from CytoDyn under their Leronlimab/PRO 140 purchase agreement from Progenics? ...for 10 years ?

Depending on how "net sales" are measured, this could potentially have a 2020 revenue of $60M-$125M and possibly 2021 $200M-$450M income from Leronlimab/PRO 140 royalties. And beyond that would potentially be greater each year.

Anyone know if any of this is cooked into the stock price yet? Doesn't look like it to me.

Of course all this hinges on CytoDyn's success at getting the product approved and to market.

[finesand]

Simplified $LNTH + $PGNX Merger Math

- Old LNTH 40M shares 65%
- PGNX 21M shares 35%
- NewCo: 62M shares

Now if you would assume PGNX has zero value:
LNTH $25 -> $16.25 per share

Right now LNTH moved $25 -> $19, -24% or 76% retention value.
So it didn't drop 35% or 65% retention value,
but it is day one.

They claim sales of combined will be $370M,
so that is ~ $6/sh and P/S 3 = $18/sh.

Problem is ofc that LNTH had $39M income and PGNX $78M losses,
so the combined company may start with ~$40M losses.

A tough valuation problem as it throws LNTH
temporarily back into the loss zone.
It will also weaken its balance sheet due to PGNX debt.

PS: LNTH would be eligible for $CYDY milestone and royalty payments.

Big question is: Will LNTH and PGNX accept the merger?
How much support have they received?

[stocktrademan]

LNTH bullish 8.28



normal chart


log chart

[matt24d]

LNTH nice update out.


Lantheus to Present New Data at the ASNC Annual Scientific Session on the Novel PET Cardiac Imaging Agent Flurpiridaz F 18 in Patients with Suspected Heart Disease Undergoing Exercise Stress Testing

Published: Sept 22, 2016 4:19 p.m. ET
Findings Show Superiority of Flurpiridaz F 18 PET MPI Compared to SPECT MPI for the Assessment of Coronary Artery Disease During Exercise Stress Testing

NORTH BILLERICA, Mass., Sep 22, 2016 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Lantheus Holdings, Inc. LNTH, +4.86% the parent company of Lantheus Medical Imaging, Inc. (“LMI”), a global leader in the development, manufacture and commercialization of innovative diagnostic imaging agents, today announced that new data from a sub-analysis of its first Phase 3 study of flurpiridaz F 18 for myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in patients undergoing exercise stress testing will be presented at the 21st Annual Scientific Session of the American Society of Nuclear Cardiology (ASNC) in Boca Raton, Florida. The findings show the superiority of flurpiridaz F 18, an investigational positron emission tomography (PET) agent for MPI, compared to MPI with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for the assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) during exercise stress testing.

The oral presentation entitled, “Exercise Stress Testing with Flurpiridaz F 18 PET and Tc99m SPECT Myocardial Perfusion Imaging for the Assessment of CAD: A Subset Analysis of the Flurpiridaz F 18 301 Phase 3 Study,” will be presented by Rob Beanlands, M.D. of University of Ottawa Heart Institute on Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 10:45 a.m. ET in the Featured Oral Abstracts session of the meeting.

“Due to short half-life limitations of currently available tracers ( [13] NH3 and [82] Rb), PET myocardial perfusion imaging is commonly used in conjunction with pharmacologic stress testing,” said Dr. Beanlands, the lead author of the presentation. “The ability to perform PET imaging with exercise stress would allow us to gather important additional clinical information and also to use the same camera for both stress modalities. The results of this study provide evidence of the particular utility and future potential of flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.”

Based on a blinded read of PET and SPECT data, flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging demonstrated a statistically greater sensitivity (67.0%) versus SPECT (54.9%) (p<0.016) but lower specificity (73.8%) versus SPECT (85.4%) (non-significant for non-inferiority testing). Improved diagnostic performance of flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging versus SPECT was also observed by ROC analysis (p<0.05). A significantly higher percentage of images were rated as either excellent or good quality with flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging, compared to SPECT for rest images (p<0.001). No drug-related serious adverse events were observed.

The data are from a multicenter, international (United States, Canada, and Finland) Phase 3 study of flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging. The study enrolled approximately 800 patients with known or suspected CAD who were scheduled for coronary angiography and conventional SPECT. Of these patients, 221 patients with known or suspected CAD underwent exercise stress flurpiridaz F 18 PET and SPECT imaging and coronary angiography.

"The Phase 3 data sub-analysis presented at ASNC demonstrates the ability to conduct flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging for coronary artery disease detection in association with exercise stress testing,” said Cesare Orlandi, M.D., Chief Medical Officer of Lantheus Medical Imaging. “Flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging also shows superiority over SPECT in this subpopulation not assessable with current standard PET imaging modalities. We believe improved diagnostic accuracy, coupled with reduced radiation exposure and potential for quantification of coronary flow reserve provide great promise for flurpiridaz F 18 to become the diagnostic imaging agent of choice for evaluating coronary artery disease.”

Lantheus is poised to commence the second of two Phase 3 trials for flurpiridaz F 18 PET imaging with a revised protocol in place under an FDA-approved Special Protocol Assessment and is in active negotiations with potential strategic partners to assist with the further development, manufacture and commercialization of this promising agent.

[Ross92]

Monday has me curious. Upwards?

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

LNTH... I'm out on stop-loss @ break even ever since Monday.
It kept looking like it was ready to bust out upwardly, as it hung around 3.50-3.90 range for almost 2 weeks (after a huge prior sell off). My rec suggestion has been 3.60 max. Stop-loss initiated since last week near same area (3.55).
That's how it goes with some of them sometimes. Not all fly. A break even here in this case.

However, my JDST Thursday thru Monday made 28.5%. I didn't alert it here that time, but anyone who followed me at JDST board benefited.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Trading range is getting tiresome... Ever since Oct 7th, it does similar pattern of approx 3.50-3.90 area

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

$LNTH... you had your chance many times under 3.60.
...And I'm still in this one with followers since last week 3.60 or less suggestion)..
It could be ready to finally break out.
{and not the first one I've given out around here for free before a break out before bottom area lows}

;)


Also see post here from October 12.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I'm still looking for $LNTH to break out soon.
Holding up support area nicely yet ever since Wednesday.
And although daily candlestick chart looks nice since this afternoon, it also still needs to break that lower 3.80s resistance area, which it seems to be doing late in the day before close.


Same as I said last week, I'm looking for a nice trade into the 4-5 area on technical rebound (without news, but with news anything possible if the low share float gets squeezed.
A 20-50% (or more?) trade-able profit is a reasonable likely scenario soon from recent support lows.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Looking good since yesterday.
We'll see if 3.50-3.60 area holds yet beyond today.

I'm looking for low 4's maybe mid 5's for short term upside target.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

$LNTH looks good today for a buy so far; bouncing off of 3.40 area since this morning.
It's been quite oversold short term.
Upside I'm seeking eventually toward lower 4's, mid-5's as a likely scenario for a trade (from 3.50s-3.60 for suggested initial starter position).
If necessary however, I may add more if it drops more, applying a Daily chart strategy, to give it a chance to bounce upward.

[TREND1]

wed site

hhtp/:www.lantheus.com

[TREND1]

eps=.34

[TREND1]

NEW IPO