I'm thinking with the potential royalty revenue from CYDY sales of Leronlimab/PRO 140 that LNTH will probably start doing share buybacks and potentially go private. If that's the case, then pps will definitely be going up. I'm buying in for some loooonng term here (3+ years) just for fun.
Posted over at CYDY [small edits]
If I'm interpreting the contract between CYDY and Progenics (now Lantheus Holdings, Inc) then there will need to be royalty payments made quarterly on "net sales" for 10 years. There was reference to patents acquired expiration date in addition to the 10 years, but I think the 10 years will be the timeframe of payments.
My big question is at what the pricing for Leronlimab will be. Since it's going to be the same formulation sold under different trade names, the pricing will probably be unique for each application. Then there's negotiated pricing for US vs non-US sales in addition to negotiated pricing for insurance vs non-insurance...and most likely government vs non-government pricing.
Then there's the negotiated agreements that CytoDyn has made for distribution with American Regent and Vyera that have all sorts of sales clauses/rebates/incentives/etc that I haven't sorted out. So, I've made the grand assumption that end user cost is $750/dose and due to distribution costs through the supply chain that makes CytoDyn's net revenue income per dose is $375 (see below). And this pricing value may change due to volume production costs, inflation, insert-reason-here, etc. But I'm going to go linear with today's best guess of $375.
The whole "cost of goods" that reduces that from CytoDyn's bottom line is an entirely different discussion.
All the figures are based on "net sales". I can only guess what those will be....so...I'll guess.
Since NP said that Leronlimab costs for COVID will be equivalent to Remdesivir, or better, then my guess was about $750 per dose (averaging 4 doses per patient) to come up with a treatment cost of about $3000 versus the Remdesivir's $3120 treatment cost. Since Remdesivir is IV administered I don't know if that cost includes everything surrounding that or just the cost of the drug - I'm going with just drug cost.
Since the 5% royalty payment is for ANY PRO 140/Leronlimab commercial sales then I'm using the entire quantity being delivered from Samsung that NP has communicated several times so far.
2020 1.5M vials (I've heard 1.6M also...not sure of accuracy) 2021 6M vials (??? more wild guessing beyond this point ...but I'm guess at increases each year) ---more guessing begins here due to unknown production limitations--- 2022 9M vials 2023 15M vials 2024 20M vials 2025 25M vials 2026 30M vials 2027 30M vials 2028 35M vials 2029 35M vials 2030 40M vials (insert crazy talk here)
Then I'm basing my assumptions on CytoDyn selling all doses at $375 - which is their "net" the royalty is based on.
